Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Views - **PTA**: Near - term TA has both maintenance and restart, with a slight increase in start - up. Polyester load drops, inventory accumulates slightly, and basis is stable. Spot processing fees continue to recover. In the future, TA has additional reduction and production cut plans, but considering the lack of super - expected performance in polyester, the far - month is expected to accumulate inventory. After the valuation recovers, the far - month processing fee is relatively reasonable. Attention should be paid to additional maintenance situations [2] - **MEG**: Near - term domestic oil - based start - up is stable, coal - based maintenance is implemented, and there is some overseas maintenance. Port inventory accumulates slightly. Downstream stocking level drops, basis weakens, and the benefit ratio further shrinks. In the future, new EG devices are put into production earlier than expected, and the valuation is significantly compressed. With the increase in arrivals and high - supply expectations in the far - month, ports may start to accumulate inventory, but the current inventory is not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the coal - based cost support [4] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Near - term device operation is stable, start - up is maintained at 95.4%, sales improve, and inventory is significantly reduced. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn is stable, raw material stocking increases, and finished product inventory is reduced. In the future, the speed of increasing load may slow down due to high finished product inventory in the polyester yarn end. The start - up of staple fiber remains high due to good spot benefits, but the inventory pressure is limited, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [4] - **Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber**: The main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory is stable and at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup rubber is stable while rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [4] - **Styrene**: The prices of related products such as ethylene, pure benzene, and styrene show certain daily changes, and the domestic profits of styrene and related products also change accordingly [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Data Changes**: From September 22 - 26, the price of PTA - related products such as crude oil, naphtha, PX CFR Taiwan, and PTA inner - market spot has certain changes. The average daily trading basis of PTA spot is 2601(-74). The PTA device has changes including the restart of Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million - ton device and the shutdown of Ineos' 1.25 million - ton device. The near - term TA start - up slightly increases, polyester load drops, inventory accumulates slightly, basis is stable, and spot processing fees continue to recover [2][9] MEG - **Data Changes**: From September 22 - 26, the prices of Northeast Asian ethylene, MEG outer - market price, MEG inner - market price, etc. change. The MEG device has changes including the restart of Xinjiang Tianye's 600,000 - ton device and the maintenance of Shanxi Meijin's 300,000 - ton device. Near - term domestic oil - based start - up is stable, coal - based maintenance is implemented, and port inventory accumulates slightly [4] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Data Changes**: From September 22 - 26, the prices of 1.4D cotton - type, low - melting - point staple fiber, etc. change. Near - term device operation is stable with a start - up of 95.4%, sales improve, and inventory is significantly reduced. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn is stable, raw material stocking increases, and finished product inventory is reduced [4] Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - **Data Changes**: From September 22 - 26, the prices of US - dollar Thai standard spot, US - dollar Thai mixed spot, etc. change. The main contradictions are stable national explicit inventory at a low level and stable Thai cup rubber price with rainfall affecting rubber tapping [4] Styrene - **Data Changes**: From September 22 - 26, the prices of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia), pure benzene (CFR China), etc. change. The domestic profits of styrene and related products such as EPS, PS, and ABS also change accordingly [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market remain uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the fundamentals are still in a tight - balance state. The overall crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]. - The methanol market is expected to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. After the sentiment cools down, it is difficult for the price to have a large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - The domestic urea supply and demand situation is acceptable, with support at the bottom but limited upside due to high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [7]. - The natural rubber market has different views from bulls and bears. The market is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish mindset is recommended for the medium - term, and a neutral mindset for short - term operations [9][11]. - The PVC market is expected to face strong supply and weak demand. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening. The price will still face pressure in the future [13]. - The styrene price is expected to fluctuate downward. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and BZN may recover [16]. - The polyethylene price is expected to remain volatile. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction [19]. - The polypropylene price is expected to be bearish in July under the background of weak supply and demand in the off - season [20]. - The PX market is expected to continue inventory reduction in the third quarter. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [23]. - The PTA market will see a slight inventory reduction in July, and the processing fee has support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [24]. - The ethylene glycol market has a weak fundamental situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.11, or 0.16%, to $68.29; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.15, or 0.21%, to $70.18; INE main crude oil futures rose 9.00 yuan, or 1.76%, to 519.7 yuan [2]. - **Data**: US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 7.07 million barrels to 426.02 million barrels, a 1.69% increase; SPR replenished 0.24 million barrels to 403.00 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 2.66 million barrels to 229.47 million barrels, a 1.15% decrease; diesel inventories decreased by 0.83 million barrels to 102.80 million barrels, a 0.80% decrease; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.45 million barrels to 21.83 million barrels, a 2.03% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.91 million barrels to 44.24 million barrels, a 2.01% decrease [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 9, the 09 contract fell 1 yuan/ton to 2372 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 17 yuan/ton, with a basis of +13 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Upstream maintenance increased, and the operating rate declined from a high level. Iranian plants restarted, and the overseas operating rate returned to a medium - high level. The demand side saw a decline in port olefin load, and the traditional demand off - season led to a decline in operating rate. The methanol spot valuation is still high, and the upside space is limited in the off - season [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 9, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 1770 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of +50 [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term domestic operating rate declined, and the supply pressure eased. The demand for compound fertilizers continued to decline, but is expected to pick up with the pre - sale of autumn fertilizers. Exports are still ongoing, and port inventories have increased significantly [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU oscillated and rebounded [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Bulls believe that the weather, rubber forest situation, and policies in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to rubber production cuts, and the price usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has worsened, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected. Tire operating rates are at a neutral level, and inventory pressure exists [9][10]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 69 yuan to 4863 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4790 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 173 (- 49) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 95 (+12) yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Recently, maintenance increased, but production remained at a high level, and there are expectations of multiple plant startups in the short term. Downstream demand is weak compared to previous years and is entering the off - season. Exports are expected to weaken in July due to potential anti - dumping measures from India. The cost - side support is expected to weaken [13]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price fell, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The cost - side pure benzene operating rate increased, and supply was abundant. The styrene operating rate continued to rise, and port inventories increased. In the off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products declined [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: After the OPEC+ meeting, crude oil oscillated downward. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. Traders' inventories continued to increase at a high level, and demand from the agricultural film sector was weak [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the propylene supply is expected to increase. Downstream operating rates declined seasonally. In the off - season, supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to be bearish in July [20]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 28 yuan to 6724 yuan, PX CFR rose 3 dollars to 850 dollars, the basis was 285 yuan (- 3), and the 9 - 1 spread was 74 yuan (- 20) [22]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Chinese PX operating rate decreased by 2.8% to 81%, and the Asian operating rate increased by 1.1% to 74.1%. Some domestic plants reduced production or were under maintenance, while some overseas plants restarted or increased loads. PTA operating rate increased by 0.5% to 78.2%. In the third quarter, due to the startup of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue inventory reduction [22][23]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 8 yuan to 4718 yuan, the East China spot price fell 50 yuan to 4750 yuan, the basis was 36 yuan (- 55), and the 9 - 1 spread was 28 yuan (- 30) [24]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA operating rate increased by 0.5% to 78.2%. Some plants adjusted their loads. Downstream operating rates declined, and terminal demand weakened. In July, inventory is expected to decrease slightly, and the processing fee has support [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 16 yuan to 4283 yuan, the East China spot price rose 2 yuan to 4347 yuan, the basis was 71 (0), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 29 yuan (- 2) [25]. - **Supply and Demand**: The ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 0.7% to 66.5%. Some domestic and overseas plants had maintenance or restarted. Downstream operating rates declined, and port inventories increased. The fundamental situation is weak, and inventory reduction is expected to slow down [25].