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美联储降息周期铜价走势复盘
对冲研投· 2025-09-19 12:27
Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the performance of copper prices during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycles since 1989, highlighting that copper price movements are influenced by market expectations formed after rate cuts and the fundamental supply-demand dynamics of copper itself [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Cycle Overview - Since 1989, including the upcoming cycle starting in 2024, the Federal Reserve has initiated a total of seven rate cut cycles, each with distinct macroeconomic backgrounds and impacts [4][5]. - The rate cut cycles can be categorized into three types: preventive cuts, recessionary cuts, and emergency cuts, each differing in their triggers, paths, and outcomes [5][6]. Group 2: Copper Price Performance Analysis - The analysis of copper price performance before and after the first rate cut reveals that copper prices tend to be strong in the 4-8 months leading up to the cut, but weaken in the last 4 months before the cut [7]. - During the rate cut cycle, copper prices do not show a clear trend, fluctuating due to changing market expectations regarding economic recovery [9][12]. - After the last rate cut, copper prices exhibit more significant trends, often rising sharply as market expectations shift following the completion of the rate cuts [12][15]. Group 3: Conclusions and Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's rate cut actions do not directly dictate copper price movements; instead, prices are primarily driven by market expectations and the fundamental supply-demand balance [15][17]. - The most favorable macroeconomic scenario for copper prices is characterized by a "weak but not declining" U.S. economy combined with improving rate cut expectations, which could lead to further price increases if inflation and employment data support the Fed's rate cut outlook [17].