Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures has been oscillating strongly since listing, with a rising center of gravity, but the trading volume and open interest indicate low activity. As the first batch of warehouse receipts are successfully registered and the contracts enter continuous delivery, market activity is expected to gradually increase [3][9][29]. - It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the futures price of cast aluminum alloy. With the year - end production rush in the automotive industry, the seasonal performance of cast aluminum alloy in the fourth quarter may be stronger. The cancellation of tax - refund policies and the persistent tight supply of scrap aluminum will support prices. The price of cast aluminum alloy generally follows the price of aluminum and has some upward price elasticity [3][29]. - Although there are potential short - selling logics in the market, most of them are long - term variables, and some have been fully priced in by the market, having a relatively small impact on the current price. In the short term, considering the cost logic and bullish drivers, the downside space is limited, and short - term long positions on dips can be considered, with an expected price range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [4][30]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1 AD Market Review Since Listing - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures has been oscillating strongly with a rising center of gravity, but the activity is low. As of September 30, 2025, the weighted contract open interest was about 20,000 lots, and the trading volume dropped from nearly 58,000 lots at the beginning to 3,000 lots. The main reason is that the initial main contract AD2511 had a long time to delivery, leading to strong market wait - and - see sentiment [9]. 3.2 Core Bullish Logic 3.2.1 Persistent Tight Supply of Scrap Aluminum - **Domestic**: The growth of domestic scrap aluminum supply is limited, with a significant gap between production and demand. In 2025, the supply growth rate of new and old scrap aluminum is in the 3 - 4% range, while the production capacity growth rate of cast aluminum alloy is about 10%, and that of processed aluminum products is in the 5 - 10% range. The scrap aluminum market is a seller's market, and when aluminum prices fall, suppliers are reluctant to sell, tightening supply [12][13]. - **Overseas**: The US has increased import tariffs on aluminum products, attracting a large amount of scrap aluminum from the EU and other regions, intensifying the global imbalance between supply and demand. The EU is evaluating the possibility of imposing export tariffs on scrap aluminum, which may affect Asian countries' imports. Southeast Asian countries are tightening scrap aluminum regulations, and Thailand's suspension of issuing recycling factory licenses may reduce scrap aluminum exports to China [15][16][18]. 3.2.2 Impact of Tax - Refund Policy Cancellation - The cancellation of local tax - refund policies will increase the tax burden of recycled aluminum enterprises by about 3%, raising production costs by 300 - 500 yuan/ton. Some enterprises may face losses, and the cost is difficult to pass on in the short term [20][24]. - Scrap recycling will become more difficult, and smelting may face production cuts. Enterprises in concentrated areas like Anhui and Jiangxi rely on external scrap sources. After the policy cancellation, they may need to raise purchase prices, further increasing costs [24]. - The demand structure for scrap aluminum will change, with an increased demand for invoiced scrap. Market supervision is tightening, and enterprises' demand for invoiced scrap will increase, making scrap procurement more difficult [24]. - The industry consolidation will accelerate, promoting healthy competition. Small and medium - sized enterprises with insufficient funds may be cleared, and industry concentration will increase. Enterprises may also transfer production capacity to areas with concentrated scrap aluminum supply to reduce costs [25]. 3.2.3 Seasonal Improvement in Demand - About 70% of cast aluminum alloy is used in the automotive industry, especially traditional fuel vehicles. As the automotive industry enters the year - end production rush in the fourth quarter, a positive feedback loop of price - cost - price increase may occur. The increase in special treasury bond funds for consumer goods replacement will also boost automotive consumption [26][27]. 3.3 Summary and Strategy Outlook - The short - term strategy is to consider long positions on dips, with an expected price range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton, as the cost logic is valid, and there are short - term bullish drivers [30].