2025 年 10 月 9 日 ——"铸铝"前行-铸造铝合金期货上市系列报告（八） | 王 蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 王宗源(联系人) | 投资从业资格号：F03142619 | wangzongyuan@gtht.com | 报告导读： 上市以来，铸造铝合金期货价格一直维持震荡偏强走势，整体呈现重心上移，但从成交量和持仓量来 看品种活跃度一直偏低。主要原因在于上市初主力合约为 AD2511，距离交割时间较长，远期合约下市场 观望情绪浓厚，前期参与度偏低。参考氧化铝上市后运行情况，随着首批仓单成功注册，合约进入连续交 割后，后续市场活跃度有望逐渐提升。 尽管节前铸造铝合金价格高位震荡回落，一度回到 20000 关口附近，但我们认为，对于铸造铝合金的 期货价格或不宜过度看空。随着汽车年末冲量阶段的开启，四季度铸造铝合金的季节性表现可能更强，叠 加税返政策取消逐步落地以及废铝供应持续偏紧，成本端抬升逻辑会对价格形成较强的支撑。参考对电解 铝方向的中期趋势性判断，在铝的单边价格、波动率方向、冶炼利润上，继续 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength - weakness analysis of the casting aluminum alloy industry is neutral [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of casting aluminum alloy showed a volatile and weak trend with a phased decline. With the callback of aluminum prices, the willingness of scrap aluminum traders to ship increased, and the market circulation improved marginally. The operating rate of the recycled aluminum industry continued to rise month - on - month, but there was obvious internal differentiation. The demand continued a mild recovery, and the pre - holiday inventory - building demand of downstream enterprises provided some support for the orders of recycled aluminum plants. It is expected that the price of casting aluminum alloy will maintain a high - level volatile trend [6]. - As of September 19, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories and social inventory increased by 0.09 million tons to 13.22 million tons compared with the previous week, and the inventory pressure remained high. The supply shortage of raw materials persisted, and the domestic automobile sales in the second week of September decreased year - on - year. However, the "trade - in" policy had a prominent effect, and the fourth batch of funds would be issued in October as planned, which was conducive to stabilizing consumer confidence and boosting automobile consumption. With the arrival of "Golden September and Silver October", the automobile sales were expected to improve month - on - month [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End - Quantity and Price - The report presents the price differences (AD00 - 01, AD01 - 02, AD02 - 03), capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest of casting aluminum alloy [9]. 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Spread Cost Calculation - The report calculates the cost of inter - period positive spread for casting aluminum alloy, including fixed costs (such as delivery and transaction fees) and floating costs (such as storage fees and capital costs). The total cost is 77 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The market actual spot quotation fluctuates around the Baotai price. The calculated total cost of spot - futures arbitrage is 20,614.5 yuan/ton, including costs such as storage fees, capital costs, and registration costs [13][14]. 3.3 Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - The production of scrap aluminum is at a high level, and the social inventory is at a medium - high level in history. The import of scrap aluminum is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. The refined - scrap price difference shows a trend of decline [16][21][26]. 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been raised, and the price difference between recycled and primary aluminum has converged significantly. The regional price difference of casting aluminum alloy has strengthened and shows certain seasonal laws. The weekly operating rate of casting aluminum alloy has increased, while the monthly operating rate has decreased slightly. The monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy and its proportion in different regions are also presented. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and it is currently above the break - even line. The factory inventory of casting aluminum alloy has decreased, while the social inventory is at a historical high. The import window of casting aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [33][38][43]. - The production and inventory of recycled aluminum rods are also analyzed. The production and its proportion in different regions are provided, as well as the factory inventory and its proportion [62][63][64]. 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - The production of fuel - powered vehicles is at a low level, which has an impact on die - casting consumption. The report also presents the production data of new energy vehicles, motorcycles, and household appliances, as well as the year - on - year change of PPI for auto parts and the monthly value of the automobile inventory warning index [69][70].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Shandong Innovation Group is transforming the perception of "Shandong manufacturing" from traditional heavy industry to a focus on green and high-end manufacturing through innovative recycling technology [1][2]. - Shandong Innovation Group has developed a groundbreaking "full-process waste aluminum preservation and recycling technology," achieving aluminum purity of 99.8%, which meets the stringent requirements of 3C products and new energy vehicles [1]. - This technology not only resolves the long-standing issue of "downgrade recycling" in the recycled aluminum industry but also provides 100,000 tons of high-quality aluminum alloy profiles annually for the 3C sector, demonstrating a win-win in economic and environmental benefits [1]. Group 2 - The innovation aligns with the national "dual carbon" strategy, significantly reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions in the aluminum industry, with recycled aluminum production energy consumption being only about 5% of that of primary aluminum [1][2]. - Shandong's manufacturing sector is undergoing a transformation towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, as evidenced by various successful projects across different industries, indicating a shift away from the traditional heavy industry label [2]. - The success of Shandong Innovation Group illustrates that traditional industries can achieve economic and ecological benefits through technological innovation, providing a reference for the transformation of other old industrial bases in the country [2]. Group 3 - Looking ahead, "Shandong manufacturing" should continue to drive technological innovation and focus on green and low-carbon development while consolidating traditional industries and fostering emerging sectors [3]. - The practices of Shandong Innovation Group indicate that with the right direction and continuous innovation, "Shandong manufacturing" can occupy a more significant position in the global industrial chain, transitioning from a manufacturing province to a manufacturing powerhouse [3].

Core Insights - The article highlights the innovative transformation of industries in Xiangyang, focusing on companies leveraging technology and collaboration to enhance productivity and efficiency [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Innovations - Zhongli Machinery is the only green electric forklift manufacturer in Central China, exploring the "oil-to-electric" conversion for old fuel forklifts, with a market potential due to over 4 million existing fuel forklifts in China [2] - The company has developed a high-pressure heavy-duty lithium battery forklift, significantly reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions while maintaining performance [2] - Cloud Up Pastoral has implemented smart farming technologies, resulting in a 1.2-ton increase in annual milk production per cow and a reduction in labor costs to below 40% of previous levels [3] - Camel Group is focusing on low-voltage lithium batteries, addressing challenges in low-temperature performance and high-temperature endurance [4][5] Group 2: Industry Collaboration and Ecosystem - Xiangyang is fostering an industrial ecosystem characterized by leading companies driving supply chain collaboration, with Zhongli Machinery's new casting project attracting numerous supporting enterprises [6] - Shunbo Aluminum has become a key player in the recycling aluminum sector, enhancing local supply chain connections with automotive parts manufacturers [7] - The local government is promoting a "chain-based" investment strategy, resulting in a significant increase in industrial cluster development and project investments [7][8] Group 3: Employment and Community Impact - The integration of employment, entrepreneurship, and industry chains in Xiangyang has created a conducive environment for returning workers, with a notable increase in returnee entrepreneurs [10][11] - The "Mom Job" initiative in Nanzhang County has successfully provided flexible employment opportunities for women, significantly improving their income and work-life balance [12] - Overall, Xiangyang has seen a substantial rise in urban employment, with 94,000 new jobs created in the first seven months of the year [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the innovative developments and industrial transformation in Xiangyang, showcasing how companies leverage technology and collaboration to enhance productivity and efficiency while addressing environmental concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Company Innovations - Zhongli Machinery is the only green electric forklift manufacturer in Central China, focusing on converting old fuel forklifts to electric ones, with a market potential due to over 4 million existing fuel forklifts in the country [2][4]. - The company has developed a high-pressure heavy-duty lithium battery forklift that significantly reduces energy consumption and carbon emissions while maintaining performance [4]. - Cloud Pastoral has implemented smart farming technologies, resulting in a 1.2-ton increase in annual milk production per cow and a reduction in labor costs to below 40% of previous levels [5][6]. - Camel Group is transitioning to the lithium battery sector, focusing on low-voltage batteries, and has invested 3% of its revenue annually in R&D, resulting in 1,238 patents [6][12]. Group 2: Industrial Ecosystem Development - Xiangyang is fostering an industrial ecosystem characterized by leading companies driving supply chain collaboration, with Zhongli Machinery attracting numerous supporting enterprises to the region [7][8]. - The local government has implemented a strategy to create an electric forklift manufacturing cluster, enhancing market competitiveness and reducing logistics costs for companies [7][8]. - The recycling aluminum company, Shunbo Aluminum, has established strong connections with local automotive parts manufacturers, facilitating a circular economy [8][9]. Group 3: Employment and Entrepreneurship - The integration of employment, entrepreneurship, and industrial chains in Xiangyang has led to a surge in returnee entrepreneurs, with 8,390 new returnee entrepreneurs reported, a 22.17% increase year-on-year [13][14]. - The "Mom Job" initiative in Nan Zhang County has created flexible employment opportunities for women, benefiting over 3,500 women and increasing their annual income by an average of 25,000 yuan [16][17]. - The overall employment situation in Xiangyang has improved, with 94,000 new urban jobs created in the first seven months of the year, contributing to a stable employment rate of 357,000 [17].

Core Viewpoint - The recycled aluminum industry is becoming a key area for global green transformation, with the global recycled aluminum market expected to reach $54.8 billion in 2024 and exceed $112.5 billion by 2034, growing at an annual rate of 7.5% [1]. Market Overview - The global recycled aluminum market is projected to grow from $54.8 billion in 2024 to $58.2 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [5]. - The demand for recycled aluminum is primarily driven by the lightweighting in transportation and green infrastructure, contributing 26% to global demand growth [6]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government is enhancing the planning of the recycled resource recovery system, aiming to establish a comprehensive recycling infrastructure by 2025, with a target of over 450 million tons of annual utilization of nine major categories of recycled resources [5]. - The EU has initiated monitoring of waste metal trade to address the crisis of strategic raw material outflow, covering 40% of the total trade volume of circular economy materials [11]. Trade Dynamics - The global waste aluminum trade is undergoing a structural reorganization, with Thailand emerging as the largest buyer of U.S. waste aluminum, and Southeast Asia becoming a new hub for recycling and processing [8][11]. - The shift from a cost-arbitrage driven model to a regional collaboration model is evident, as China transitions from a net importer to a dominant player in internal circulation [10]. Historical Context - China's waste aluminum import peaked at 1.2 million tons in 2004, but by 2018, imports had plummeted to 157,000 tons due to stricter quality standards and a focus on domestic recycling [7]. - The domestic recycling rate of waste aluminum has increased significantly, with a recovery volume surpassing 9 million tons in 2020, and the share of recycled aluminum in raw material supply rising from less than 40% to over 80% [7]. Future Outlook - By 2025, China's recycled aluminum production is targeted to reach 11.5 million tons, a 54% increase from 7.45 million tons in 2020, with domestic waste aluminum recovery expected to rise to 11.06 million tons by 2024 [15]. - The ongoing demand surge in Southeast Asia, coupled with resource protection policies in Europe and the U.S., is likely to constrain waste aluminum imports, maintaining strong prices for recycled aluminum [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cast aluminum alloy is "Bullish" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week (08/18 - 08/22), the re - cast aluminum alloy ingot fluctuated strongly. The closing price of AD2511 increased by 0.05% to 20,175 yuan/ton, and the sales price of Baotai Group's ADC12 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 20,000 yuan/ton. The production cost of Fubao ADC12 increased by 121.4 yuan/ton to 19,832.8 yuan/ton, and the profit narrowed by 21.5 yuan/ton to 167.1 yuan/ton [2][13] - The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the price remains high. There are rumors of tax - refund cancellation policies in some regions, and the scrap aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The price of ADC12 is relatively strong, and the industry's comprehensive operating rate has slightly declined. The demand side has not improved significantly, but the traditional peak season for auto and motorcycle parts is approaching [3] - Considering the tight supply of scrap aluminum and the decline in the raw material inventory of some alloy ingot factories, the cost support is strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices and the arbitrage opportunity of going long on AD2511 and short on AL2511 [4][22] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Scrap aluminum arrival is scarce, and continuously monitor the implementation of the tax - refund cancellation policy - The re - cast aluminum alloy ingot fluctuated strongly last week. The prices of some scrap aluminum in Guangdong decreased by 100 yuan/ton, while the FOB price of Malaysian scrap aluminum increased by 5 US dollars/ton to 2,165 US dollars/ton. The production cost of Fubao ADC12 increased, and the profit narrowed [13][14] - The scrap aluminum market supply is tight, and the price is high. There are rumors of tax - refund cancellation policies in Anhui and Jiangxi. The scrap aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to the game between scrap aluminum holders and recycled aluminum plants. The inventory of scrap aluminum has slightly accumulated, but it is difficult to continue to accumulate. The demand for imported raw materials is expected to increase [16][18] - The price of ADC12 is relatively strong. The futures price of cast aluminum alloy is stronger than that of electrolytic aluminum. There are regional production stoppages and suspension of shipments in Anhui and Jiangxi, and the industry's comprehensive operating rate has slightly declined. The demand side has not improved significantly, but the traditional peak season for auto and motorcycle parts is approaching, and the price of aluminum alloy ingots is likely to rise [19] 2. Review of industry news during the week - Four ministries and commissions including the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued a notice to regulate investment - promotion behaviors, requiring the rectification of illegal fiscal returns and subsidies in local investment - promotion [23] - The US government announced an expansion of the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products, and the new tariff list took effect on August 18 [23] 3. Monitoring of key high - frequency data in the industrial chain 3.1 Scrap aluminum: Tight arrival, slight inventory accumulation - The monthly production and shipment volume data of Chinese scrap aluminum in recent years are presented, showing the overall production and shipment trends. The weekly procurement volume of scrap aluminum traders and the inventory and arrival retention of scrap aluminum traders are also monitored. The monthly scrap aluminum inventory of cast aluminum alloy factories shows that some alloy ingot factories' raw material inventory has decreased [26][27][33] - The price trend of Foshan crushed raw aluminum and the refined - scrap price difference are monitored, indicating that the price of scrap aluminum is relatively strong compared to primary aluminum [34] 3.2 ADC12: Strong price, high social inventory - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy futures main contract, the term structure of SHFE cast aluminum alloy, the basis of Baotai ADC12, and the sales price of Baotai ADC12 are monitored. The price of ADC12 is relatively strong, and the profit of production has slightly narrowed [35][37][38] - The price difference between ADC12 and A00 in Foshan, the production and operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly operating rate of leading recycled aluminum casting enterprises, the social inventory and in - factory inventory of aluminum alloy ingots, and the daily production profit of recycled aluminum alloy and the instant profit of imported ADC12 are monitored [42][46][47] 3.3 Downstream: The operating rate of semi - steel tires has recovered, and pay attention to the realization of peak - season demand - The monthly consumption of recycled aluminum casting, the production of Chinese automobiles, new - energy vehicles, and fuel vehicles, the automobile inventory warning index, the production of Chinese motorcycles, and the operating rates of Chinese semi - steel tires and all - steel tires are monitored. The operating rate of semi - steel tires has recovered, and the traditional peak season for auto and motorcycle parts is approaching [56][58][65]

Group 1 - The article discusses the successful implementation of "credit loans" for enterprises in Henan, allowing them to secure significant funding without collateral, solely based on quality certification [4][8][9] - Two companies, Pud Energy and Xigetenghua, each received 10 million yuan in loans, which will help alleviate their financial shortages and support ongoing projects [4][8] - Pud Energy focuses on lithium battery production, while Xigetenghua is the largest recycled aluminum producer in the region, with a production output of 43,000 tons and a revenue of 860 million yuan as of June this year [8][9] Group 2 - The local market supervision bureau played a crucial role in connecting these companies with the bank, facilitating the loan process and promoting financial inclusivity for private enterprises [8][9] - The initiative is part of a broader strategy to enhance quality management systems among small and medium-sized enterprises, addressing their financing challenges and fostering innovation [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cast aluminum alloy is "Bullish" [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The implementation of policies such as the "Notice on Matters Related to the Implementation of Policies on Regulating Investment Promotion Behaviors" may have a significant impact on aspects like local tax rebates and reverse invoicing in the recycled aluminum industry, increasing production costs and potentially leading to production cuts or shutdowns [2][3][10] - Under the influence of reverse invoicing investigations and tax rebate declines, the demand for invoiced resources and imported raw materials is expected to increase, and the production costs of ADC12 in East and South China may change structurally, providing strong support for the price of ADC12 [4][24] - Considering the cost - increase expectations on the smelting side and the supply shortage of scrap aluminum, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices. In terms of arbitrage, going long on AD2511 and shorting AL2511 is more secure, and attention can be paid to the position - building opportunity when the price difference is below - 500 [4][24] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Event Overview - Since August 1, 2024, the "Regulations on the Review of Fair Competition" has clearly restricted tax incentives for specific operators. Recently, the "Notice on Matters Related to the Implementation of Policies on Regulating Investment Promotion Behaviors" may have a major impact on local tax rebates and reverse invoicing in the recycled aluminum industry [10] Event Analysis - Due to the low entry threshold of the recycled aluminum industry and local tax rebate policies, a large amount of production capacity has expanded, resulting in intensified competition, thin profits, and low capacity utilization. As of July 2025, the monthly production capacity of 158 sample recycled cast aluminum enterprises reached 1264,500 tons, but the output was only 528,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 41.7%. In 2024, the operating production capacity of recycled aluminum in China was 23 million tons, and the actual output was 10.5 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 45%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5 pcts [10] - There are "tax havens" in the recycled aluminum industry. The comprehensive tax burden of recycled aluminum enterprises in Anhui is about 6.5%, and the lowest can reach 5.5%, which can reduce the operating cost by 300 - 400 yuan/ton. In 2024, the production capacity of recycled aluminum in Anhui exceeded 2 million tons, accounting for more than 10% of the national total [11] - The policy aims to promote fair competition. The cancellation of local tax rebates may increase the comprehensive tax burden by about 4% and the production cost by up to 800 yuan/ton. Some enterprises in tax - haven areas may face production cuts or shutdowns. However, the policy implementation has a gradual nature, and most enterprises are given a buffer period [17][18] - The policy may reduce the demand for scrap aluminum, but if local governments investigate the compliance of reverse invoicing, the demand for invoiced and imported scrap aluminum will increase sharply. The cost in East China may increase significantly [21] Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices. In terms of arbitrage, going long on AD2511 and shorting AL2511 is more secure, and attention can be paid to the position - building opportunity when the price difference is below - 500 [4][24]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shunbo Alloy (002996), reported significant growth in its half-year performance for 2025, with a notable increase in both revenue and net profit, driven by expanded production capacity and diversified product applications [2][9]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 712.63 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.75% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 17.66 million yuan, showing a substantial year-on-year growth of 110.56% - Product sales volume increased by 7.27% compared to the previous period [2][9]. Production Capacity - The release of 400,000 tons of casting aluminum alloy capacity in Anhui during the first half of 2025 contributed to improved production efficiency and increased overall capacity utilization [3]. - The company has established four major production bases in Chongqing, Guangdong, Hubei, and Anhui, with a total capacity of 1.05 million tons in the casting aluminum alloy sector [4]. Product and Customer Base - The main products include various grades of recycled aluminum alloy ingots, with DC12 being the most widely used grade - The customer base primarily consists of die-casting supporting enterprises, with products sold mainly in Southwest, South China, East China, and Central China regions, serving industries such as automotive, machinery, electronics, and lighting [5]. Industry Landscape - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set ambitious targets for the aluminum industry, aiming for a significant increase in domestic resource availability and recycled aluminum production by 2027, indicating a broad market development potential [6]. Competitive Advantages - The company benefits from a diversified regional layout, which helps maintain local supplier and customer relationships, reduces transportation costs, and enhances market share [7][8]. - The diverse application of products across various industries further strengthens the company's resilience against market fluctuations [8]. Impact of Trade War - The company's operations are primarily domestic, with no direct exports, thus insulating it from the impacts of trade wars on its performance [9].