大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 10 月 10 日星期五 1 / 29 有色金属衍生品日报 第一部分 市场研判 铜 【市场回顾】 1.期货：今日沪铜 2511 合约收于 85910 元/吨，持平昨日结算价，沪铜指数增仓 13556 手至 57.82 万手。 2.现货：临近周末沪铜现货采购情绪抬升，现货升水企稳，报升水 20 元/吨，较上一交易日 上涨 5 元/吨。广东和天津地区由于铜价高位，下游消费延续疲软，持平于上一交易日。广 东报升水 30 元/吨，天津报贴水 210 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1. 周四，威廉姆斯表示："劳动力市场进一步放缓的风险是我非常关注的事情。"他认为， 如果经济如预期发展——通胀率升至 3%左右，失业率微升至当前 4.3%以上——他将支持 "今年降息"。 2. 周四，美联储理事巴尔表示，在上个月启动首次降息之后，美联储在进一步调整政策立 场时应当保持谨慎，因为物价上涨速度仍然过快。 3. 周四，据媒体援引一位知情的美国劳工部官员称，美国劳工统计局（BLS）已召回部分 员工，以准备发布一份关键的通胀报告——9 月份的消费者价格指数（CPI）报告，这份报 告对 ...

2025 年 10 月 9 日 ——"铸铝"前行-铸造铝合金期货上市系列报告（八） | 王 蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 王宗源(联系人) | 投资从业资格号：F03142619 | wangzongyuan@gtht.com | 报告导读： 上市以来，铸造铝合金期货价格一直维持震荡偏强走势，整体呈现重心上移，但从成交量和持仓量来 看品种活跃度一直偏低。主要原因在于上市初主力合约为 AD2511，距离交割时间较长，远期合约下市场 观望情绪浓厚，前期参与度偏低。参考氧化铝上市后运行情况，随着首批仓单成功注册，合约进入连续交 割后，后续市场活跃度有望逐渐提升。 尽管节前铸造铝合金价格高位震荡回落，一度回到 20000 关口附近，但我们认为，对于铸造铝合金的 期货价格或不宜过度看空。随着汽车年末冲量阶段的开启，四季度铸造铝合金的季节性表现可能更强，叠 加税返政策取消逐步落地以及废铝供应持续偏紧，成本端抬升逻辑会对价格形成较强的支撑。参考对电解 铝方向的中期趋势性判断，在铝的单边价格、波动率方向、冶炼利润上，继续 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 21,090.00 15.00 | +410.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -5.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 2,875.00 -36.00 | +7.00↑ +7.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 203,279.00 | +12748.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 294,498.00 | +9203.00↑ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 107,625.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 188,223.00 | +9023.00↑ | | | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 2,750.50 | +8.50↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） | 506,400.00 | +1075.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 沪铝前20名净持仓（日，手） | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of stable supply and slight increase in demand, with a suggestion of light - position oscillatory trading [2] - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and boosted demand, and the option market sentiment is bullish, also suggesting light - position oscillatory trading [2] - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a stage of slowing supply and increasing demand, and light - position oscillatory trading is recommended [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,680 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,868 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan [2] - The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote was 2,670.50 US dollars/ton, up 21.50 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 515,600 tons, up 10,424 tons [2] - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,210 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the main - second - contract spread of cast aluminum alloy was - 110 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2] Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price was 20,720 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,890 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,900 yuan/ton, and the basis of cast aluminum alloy was 690 yuan, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - Alumina production was 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 725.80 million tons, up 3.73 million tons [2] - The import quantity of aluminum scrap and fragments was 172,610.37 tons, up 12,115.77 tons; the export quantity was 53.23 tons, down 26.16 tons [2] Industry Situation - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was - 11.99 million tons, down 30.30 million tons; the primary aluminum import quantity was 217,260.71 tons, down 30,322.61 tons [2] - The primary aluminum export quantity was 25,604.34 tons, down 15,383.37 tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 53.70 million tons, down 3.00 million tons [2] Downstream and Application - The aluminum product production was 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons; the export quantity of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 53.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons [2] - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 63.59 million tons, up 1.27 million tons; the export quantity of aluminum alloy was 2.91 million tons, up 0.42 million tons [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 6.17%, down 0.07%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 6.08%, up 0.02% [2] - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main at - the - money IV increased slightly, and the put - call ratio was 1.11, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.0630 [2] Industry News - New York Fed President Williams supported rate cuts due to labor market weakness; St. Louis Fed President Mousalem was open to future rate cuts but cautious; Cleveland Fed President Harker advocated maintaining a tight monetary policy [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan to boost investment [2] - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd, focusing on the 15th Five - Year Plan [2] - The China Household Electrical Appliances Association opposes unfair competition in the industry [2]

铝类产业日报 2025/9/29 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20,730.00 | -15.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,904.00 | +3.00↑ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 20.00 | +20.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -37.00 | -4.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/ ...

库存方面，据统计，9月29日佛山、宁波、无锡三地再生铝合金锭日度社会库存共计50050吨，较前一交 易日增加104吨，较上周一（9月22日）增加382吨。 9月29日，国内期市有色金属板块大面积飘绿。其中，铸造铝合金期货呈现震荡下行走势，截至发稿主 力合约小幅下跌0.25%，报20320.0元/吨。 展望后市，一德期货表示，供应有扰动，废铝供应偏紧，且退税红利退场，下游压铸开工逐步回升，但 鉴于高价采购积极些一般；22日已开始注册仓单，社会库存或进一步增加。【投资策略】节前减仓为 主，防范假期海外风险。铝合金：AD跟随AL价格走势，仍可逢低试多AD-AL。 供给方面，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，由于原料供给的收紧，在对铸铝现货价提供支撑的同时，在一 定程度上又限制着铸铝产能，国内铸铝供给量或将增速放缓。 需求方面，新湖期货指出，汽车市场继续回暖，但以新能源汽车为主，再生铸造铝合金受益非常有限， 总体消费回升力度仍有限。 ...

华安期货2025年金融宣传周活动圆满收官 9月20日，金融宣传周活动火热开展之际，恰逢铸造铝合金期货上市满100天。当天，华安期货同步推进两大重点行动：一方面携手安徽省铝业协会、安徽 雄创铝合金新型材料有限责任公司，在合肥联合举办"期遇再生，铝创价值"双碳战略下铸造铝合金企业期现培训会；另一方面深入社区开展金融知识宣传 活动，以"企业+居民"双覆盖模式，将金融宣传周"保障金融权益 助力美好生活" 的主题落到实处。 在企业服务端，期现培训会紧扣金融宣传周"普及金融知识、提升金融素养"核心目标，结合铸造铝合金期货上市百天特殊节点，为铝行业企业定制专业内 容。培训会上，华安期货讲师从实操层面出发，深入剖析铝合金企业如何系统性开展风险管理；并提出企业应建立"期现结合"的思维模式，灵活运用金融 工具对冲市场不确定性，提升抗风险能力和综合竞争力。 在民生服务端，华安期货积极联合分支机构发挥地域优势，组织员工走进阜阳、马鞍山、安庆、长春、广州等地的社区街道，开展"金融知识进万家"宣传 活动。现场通过设置咨询台、发放宣传手册、趣味问答等形式，针对不同群体精准科普：向老年人重点讲解养老诈骗防范技巧，提醒警惕"虚假投资""以 房 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to continue reaching new highs, while silver will undergo a sideways adjustment. The continuous rise of the US dollar restricts the upward movement of copper prices. Zinc has support at lower levels, and the continuous decline in lead inventories supports its price. Tin will trade within a range, aluminum will experience high - level fluctuations, alumina will operate weakly, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Nickel prices will trade at low levels due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and stainless - steel prices will fluctuate due to the short - term game between supply - demand and costs [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Fundamentals** - Gold: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 851.74 with a daily decline of 0.50%, and the night - session closing price was 858.12 with a night - session increase of 0.25%. Comex Gold 2510 rose 0.32% to 3780.50. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 decreased by 21,639, and the position decreased by 18,781. The position of SPDR Gold ETF remained unchanged at 996.85. The inventory of Shanghai Gold increased by 5,091 kilograms, and the inventory of Comex Gold (in the previous day) increased by 62,032 troy ounces [5]. - Silver: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 10370 with a daily increase of 0.16%, and the night - session closing price was 10575.00 with a night - session increase of 1.72%. Comex Silver 2510 rose 3.07% to 45.470. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 decreased by 87,243, and the position decreased by 23,112. The position of SLV Silver ETF (in the day before yesterday) decreased by 79 to 15,390.07. The inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 4944 kilograms, and the inventory of Comex Silver (in the previous day) increased by 406,878 troy ounces [5]. - **Trend Intensity** - Gold trend intensity is 0, and silver trend intensity is 1 [8]. 2. Copper - **Fundamentals** - The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 82,710 with a daily increase of 3.44%, and the night - session closing price was 82380 with a night - session decline of 0.40%. The LME Copper 3M electronic - trading price decreased by 0.43% to 10,276. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased by 283,166, and the position increased by 66,079. The inventory of Shanghai Copper increased by 243 tons, and the inventory of LME Copper decreased by 350 tons [10]. - **Macro and Industry News** - The US GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%, reaching a two - year high, and the PCE price index was 2.6%. China's refined copper imports in August were 307,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.17% and a year - on - year increase of 11.14%. Freeport announced force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, and its comprehensive sales in Q3 2025 are expected to be about 4% lower (for copper) and about 6% lower (for gold) than the July 2025 estimate [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity** - Copper trend intensity is 0 [12]. 3. Zinc - **Fundamentals** - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22045 with a daily increase of 0.85%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic - trading price increased by 1.14% to 2922.5. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 48,547, and the position decreased by 10,581. The inventory of Shanghai Zinc decreased by 774 tons, and the inventory of LME Zinc decreased by 600 tons [13]. - **News** - The US GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%, reaching a two - year high, and the PCE price index was 2.6% [14]. - **Trend Intensity** - Zinc trend intensity is 0 [14]. 4. Lead - **Fundamentals** - The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17090 with a daily increase of 0.15%, and the LME Lead 3M electronic - trading price increased by 0.18% to 2002.5. The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 2927, and the position increased by 1776. The inventory of Shanghai Lead decreased by 2576 tons, and the inventory of LME Lead decreased by 175 tons [16]. - **News** - The US GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%, reaching a two - year high, and the PCE price index was 2.6%. The strong data increased the uncertainty of the Fed's future interest - rate cut path, and the market's expectation of an interest - rate cut in October cooled down [16]. - **Trend Intensity** - Lead trend intensity is 0 [16]. 5. Tin - **Fundamentals** - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 271,650 with a daily increase of 0.66%, and the night - session closing price was 272,950 with a night - session increase of 0.51%. The LME Tin 3M electronic - trading price increased by 0.13% to 34,315. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 9,649, and the position decreased by 2,419. The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 76 tons, and the inventory of LME Tin increased by 120 tons [19]. - **Macro and Industry News** - The Digital RMB International Operation Center was officially launched, offering three platforms: cross - border digital payment, blockchain services, and digital assets. The US GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%, reaching a two - year high, and the PCE price index was 2.6%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 218,000, the lowest since July [19]. - **Trend Intensity** - Tin trend intensity is 0 [22]. 6. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals** - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20765, the LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2664. The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 146,073, and the position was 220,640. The LME注销仓单占比 was 20.95%. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise's profit was 4487.40, and the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 614,000 tons [23]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2942. The trading volume was 329,000, and the position was 303,116. The domestic average price of alumina was 3026 [23]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20385, the trading volume was 3950, and the position was 11,767 [23]. - **Comprehensive News** - Fed Governor Milan advocated cutting interest rates by 50 basis points each time to quickly reach the neutral interest rate [25]. - **Trend Intensity** - Aluminum trend intensity is 0, alumina trend intensity is 0, and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [25]. 7. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals** - **Nickel**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,450. The price of 1 imported nickel was 121,600, and the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 955. The red clay nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) was 57 [26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,895. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) was 13,200 [26]. - **Macro and Industry News** - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year. The approved RKAB production in 2025 is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target. A nickel - iron smelting industrial park in Indonesia suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, expected to affect nickel - iron production by about 1900 metal tons per month [26][27]. - **Trend Intensity** - Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [32].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced the trading schedule for the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival in 2025, indicating no night trading on September 30, 2025, and a market closure from October 1 to October 8, 2025 [1][2] - Trading will resume on October 9, 2025, with a collection auction for all futures and options contracts from 08:55 to 09:00 [2] Group 2 - Starting from the settlement on September 29, 2025, margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for various futures contracts will be adjusted, with specific percentages outlined for different commodities [2] - For example, the price fluctuation limit for aluminum alloy futures will be adjusted to 7%, while for gold and silver futures, it will be set at 15% [2] Group 3 - On October 9, 2025, after trading, the price fluctuation limits and margin ratios will revert to their original levels following the first trading day without a one-sided market [3] - Other matters regarding price fluctuation limits and margin ratios will be governed by the Shanghai Futures Exchange's risk control management regulations [4]

铝类产业日报 2025/9/24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 20,705.00 0.00 | +20.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) +10.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 2,907.00 -26.00 | +30.00↑ -6.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 221,314.00 | -4134.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 318,873.00 | -9337.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 111,200.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 174,191.00 | +8919.00↑ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） 沪铝前20名净持仓（日，手） | 2,646.00 -6,257.00 | -9.00↓ LME铝库存（日，吨） +608.0 ...