1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum oxide's fundamentals may be in a state of increasing supply and demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - Electrolytic aluminum's fundamentals may be in a stage of stable supply and warming demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - Cast aluminum alloy's fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and rising demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 24,875.00 yuan/ton, up 150.00 yuan; the closing price of the aluminum oxide futures main contract was 2,827.00 yuan/ton, down 114.00 yuan [2] - The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of SHFE aluminum was - 115.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; the spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of aluminum oxide was - 11.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan [2] - The open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 258,839.00 lots, down 5089.00 lots; the open interest of the aluminum oxide main contract was 199,275.00 lots, down 3436.00 lots [2] - The LME aluminum canceled warrants were 148,050.00 tons, down 2200.00 tons; the total inventory of aluminum oxide was 475,344.00 tons, up 14029.00 tons [2] - The LME three - month electrolytic aluminum quotation was 3,445.00 US dollars/ton, up 160.50 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 420,875.00 tons, down 2200.00 tons [2] - The net position of the top 20 in SHFE aluminum was - 53,216.00 lots, down 13662.00 lots; the SHFE - LME ratio was 7.22, down 0.31 [2] - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 23,695.00 yuan/ton, up 65.00 yuan; the registered warrants of cast aluminum alloy on the SHFE were 33,582.00 tons, down 1625.00 tons [2] - The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of cast aluminum alloy was 120.00 yuan/ton, up 150.00 yuan; the open interest of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 6,958.00 lots [2] - The SHFE inventory of SHFE aluminum was 454,571.00 tons, up 2527.00 tons; the SHFE inventory of cast aluminum alloy was 45,761.00 tons, down 7929.00 tons [2] - The SHFE warrants of SHFE aluminum were 408,197.00 tons, up 4639.00 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM A00 aluminum was 24,610.00 yuan/ton, up 80.00 yuan; the spot price of aluminum oxide from SMM was 2,770.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 24,700.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 24,525.00 yuan/ton, up 80.00 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 1,005.00 yuan/ton, down 65.00 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 265.00 yuan/ton, down 70.00 yuan [2] - The premium/discount of Shanghai Wumao aluminum was - 110.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was 47.21 US dollars/ton, down 14.02 US dollars [2] - The basis of aluminum oxide was - 57.00 yuan/ton, up 114.00 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of pre - baked anodes in the northwest region was 5,794.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of aluminum oxide nationwide was 82.10%, down 0.39 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of aluminum oxide was 801.10 tons, down 12.70 tons; the monthly capacity utilization rate of aluminum oxide was 83.00%, down 1.00 percentage point [2] - The monthly demand for aluminum oxide (electrolytic aluminum part) was 731.29 tons, up 25.33 tons; the monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum oxide was 28.90 tons, up 2.32 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 0.00 yuan/ton, down 19150.00 yuan; China's monthly import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 136,323.65 tons, down 56401.89 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 18,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; China's monthly export volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 55.23 tons, up 33.81 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of aluminum oxide was 15.00 tons, down 4.00 tons; the monthly import volume of aluminum oxide was 18.10 tons, down 7.94 tons [2] - The monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum was 37.40 tons, up 22.90 tons; the weekly social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 139.70 tons, up 2.60 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of primary aluminum was 201,617.04 tons, up 12525.43 tons; the monthly total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,512.85 tons, up 3.00 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of primary aluminum was 10,040.43 tons, down 3270.78 tons; the monthly operating rate of electrolytic aluminum was 98.94%, up 0.04 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of aluminum products was 613.60 tons, up 20.50 tons; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 42.96 tons, down 11.50 tons [2] - The monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 27.08 tons, down 39.41 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 1.33 tons, down 1.09 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Applications - The total built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 126.00 tons, unchanged; the monthly National Real Estate Climate Index was 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - The monthly output of aluminum alloy was 182.50 tons, unchanged; the monthly automobile production was 341.20 vehicles, down 10.70 vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce will launch optimized measures for tax - free shopping for outbound travelers, introduce measures to promote the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption, and promote the development of the automotive aftermarket [2] - From January to February 2026, the import of automobiles was 70,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25%. In February 2026, the import of automobiles was 32,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 12% and a month - on - month decrease of 17% [2] - The Ministry of Commerce will implement a special action to boost consumption, optimize the policy of trading in old consumer goods for new ones, and promote the reform of automotive circulation and consumption [2] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the Fed tends to keep interest rates unchanged, but may take action if inflation expectations change [2] - New York Fed President Williams said that the current interest rate level is in a favorable position, and the Fed should not take action for the time being [2] - Fed Governor Milan called for interest rate cuts and believed that the Fed could cut interest rates by 100 basis points this year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand, with positive industry consumption expectations. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of stable supply and warming demand, with a slight increase in industrial inventory and positive industry expectations. The option market sentiment is bullish, and it is also recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of increasing supply and weakening demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 23,725 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was -115 yuan, up 10 yuan; the main contract position was 259,986 lots, down 6,884 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was -36,054 lots, down 7,332 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.32, down 0.03; the Shanghai Aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 452,044 tons, up 35,619 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum warehouse receipt was 404,742 tons, down 69 tons [2] - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,931 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was -47 yuan, down 2 yuan; the main contract position was 223,006 lots, up 2,224 lots [2] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 22,820 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was 20 yuan, up 80 yuan; the main contract position was 1,833 lots, down 1,730 lots; the registered warehouse receipt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 39,035 tons, down 1,390 tons; the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 53,690 tons, down 9,041 tons [2] - **LME Aluminum**: The three - month quotation of LME electrolytic aluminum was 3,242 US dollars/ton, down 3.5 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 426,750 tons, down 925 tons; the LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipt was 153,925 tons, unchanged; the LME aluminum premium was 49.84 US dollars/ton, up 2.47 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 23,510 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 23,820 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan; the Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium was -90 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was -215 yuan, down 115 yuan [2] - **Alumina Spot**: The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,755 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the basis of alumina was -176 yuan, up 37 yuan [2] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 24,300 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the basis of cast aluminum alloy was 1,480 yuan, down 90 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The monthly output was 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the monthly import volume was 18.10 million tons, down 7.94 million tons; the monthly export volume was 15.00 million tons, down 4.00 million tons; the monthly demand (electrolytic aluminum part) was 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons; the monthly supply - demand balance was 28.90 million tons, up 2.32 million tons; the national monthly operating rate was 82.10%, down 0.39%; the total monthly capacity utilization rate was 83.00%, down 1.00% [2] - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 0 yuan/ton, down 18,500 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 17,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the monthly import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments in China was 136,323.65 tons, down 56,401.89 tons; the monthly export volume was 55.23 tons, up 33.81 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The monthly import volume of primary aluminum was 201,491.17 tons, up 12,566.45 tons; the monthly export volume was 10,039.89 tons, down 3,249.90 tons; the total monthly production capacity was 4,540.20 million tons, unchanged; the monthly operating rate was 98.93%, up 0.04%; the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 130.10 million tons, up 0.20 million tons [2] - **Aluminum Products**: The monthly output of aluminum products was 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products was 43.00 million tons, down 11.00 million tons [2] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The monthly output of aluminum alloy was 182.50 million tons, unchanged; the monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 27.08 million tons, down 39.41 million tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 1.33 million tons, down 1.09 million tons; the total monthly built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 126.00 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The monthly automobile production was 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles [2] - **Real Estate**: The national real estate climate index was 91.45, down 0.44 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 24.04%, up 0.09%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 31.84%, down 0.05%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 18.57%, down 0.0064; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.75, down 0.1619 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The situation of the US - Iran negotiation is uncertain. Iran has rejected the US cease - fire proposal, while the White House spokesman said the negotiation is still ongoing and productive. The US House Speaker Johnson said the Iran war is "close to ending" [2] - Iran's permanent mission to the United Nations stated that non - belligerent country ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely after coordination. COSCO Shipping Lines has resumed new bookings for ordinary containers to some Middle - East countries [2] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang had a phone call with Dutch Prime Minister Rutte, expressing China's willingness to strengthen cooperation with the Netherlands [2] - As of the end of February, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.95 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.23 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 33.2%; the installed capacity of wind power was 0.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.8% [2] - The US - Israel military action against Iran did not meet expectations, and both sides' high - level officials shifted the blame. US President Trump blamed the Secretary of Defense and the Chief of Staff, and in Israel, the head of Mossad was accused of misleading the governments [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan said the current Fed policy is dragging down the economy, and the Fed should gradually cut interest rates to a neutral level this year. The overall inflation forecast for this year was raised to 2.7% [2] - European Central Bank President Lagarde said the ECB will take decisive action if the soaring energy costs lead to broader inflation, but is currently assessing the impact of the Middle - East situation [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Gold: Geopolitical tensions ease [2][4] - Silver: Falls from the oscillation platform [2][4] - Copper: The rising US dollar exerts pressure on prices [2][8] - Zinc: Ranges sideways [2][11] - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2][14] - Tin: Monitor the stabilization of macro - sentiment [2][17] - Aluminum: Ranges within a certain interval; Alumina: Runs weakly; Cast aluminum alloy: Follows electrolytic aluminum [2][20] - Platinum: Oscillates with a bearish bias, and attention should be paid to the retracement elasticity; Palladium: Oscillates with a bearish bias [2][23] - Nickel: There are contradictions between macro and the mining end, and short - term long - short games intensify; Stainless steel: Overseas macro factors suppress, while real - world costs provide support [2][27] Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 940.00 with a daily decline of 9.55%, and the night - session closing price was 980.00 with a decline of 1.30%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 15498 with a daily decline of 12.30%, and the night - session closing price was 17246.00 with an increase of 3.47%. The trading volume and positions of gold and silver futures also changed to varying degrees [4]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai gold decreased by 99 kilograms, and the inventory of Comex silver decreased by 1,989,464 ounces. The spreads of gold and silver also showed different changes, such as the spread between Gold T + D and AU2602 remaining unchanged at - 19.01 [4]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 95,590 with a daily increase of 1.66%, and the night - session closing price was 96250 with an increase of 0.69%. The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index decreased by 105,601, and the position decreased by 1,739 [8]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai copper decreased by 10,599 tons, and the inventory of LME copper increased by 900 tons. The LME copper cash - 3M spread decreased by 6.47 [8]. - **Industry News**: Zambia aims to triple copper production to over 3 million tons by 2031. Rio Tinto suspended the operation of its Kennecott copper mine in Utah after a worker died in an accident on March 12 [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22935 with a decline of 0.17%, and the closing price of the LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 3038.5 with a decline of 2.08%. The trading volume and positions of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc also changed [11]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai zinc decreased by 1354 tons, and the inventory of LME zinc decreased by 625 tons. The LME CASH - 3M spread of zinc decreased by 3.97 [11]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16495 with an increase of 0.46%, and the closing price of the LME lead 3M electronic disk remained unchanged at 1898.5. The trading volume and positions of Shanghai lead and LME lead changed [14]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai lead decreased by 1701 tons, and the inventory of LME lead decreased by 200 tons. The LME CASH - 3M spread of lead increased by 2.75 [14]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 352,430 with an increase of 1.91%, and the night - session closing price was 354,680 with an increase of 0.69%. The trading volume of the Shanghai tin main contract decreased by 33,699, and the position decreased by 2,195 [17]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai tin decreased by 408 tons, and the inventory of LME tin decreased by 25 tons. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread increased by 21 [17]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 23860, and the closing price of the LME aluminum 3M was 3242. The trading volume and positions of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures all changed [20]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 135.60 million tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 42.68 million tons. The spreads of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy also showed different changes [20]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 505.85 with an increase of 3.79%, and the closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 368.55 with an increase of 2.52%. The trading volume and positions of platinum and palladium futures changed [23]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of platinum and palladium futures remained unchanged in some cases, and the spreads of platinum and palladium also changed [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 136,130, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,490. The trading volume and positions of nickel and stainless - steel futures changed [27]. - **Industry News**: The Indonesian government plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore, and some nickel mines in Indonesia and other regions have production changes, such as the planned restart of a nickel mine in Guatemala and production quota adjustments in Indonesia [27][28][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - Alumina: The alumina market is expected to be in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand, with positive industry consumption expectations. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum market may be in a stage of stable supply and warming demand, with a slight increase in industrial inventory and positive industry expectations. The option market sentiment is bullish. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: The cast aluminum alloy market is likely to be in a stage of increasing supply and weakening demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 23,625 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,014 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 3,225.50 US dollars/ton, up 33.50 US dollars; the closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 22,585 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2]. - **Spread**: The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai aluminum was - 105 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; that of alumina was - 39 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; that of cast aluminum alloy was - 115 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2]. - **Position**: The position of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 261,158 hands, down 5,633 hands; that of the alumina main contract was 231,479 hands, down 15,331 hands; that of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 4,053 hands, down 521 hands [2]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum canceled warrants were 154,625 tons, unchanged; LME aluminum inventory was 427,675 tons, down 2,000 tons; Shanghai aluminum inventory on the SHFE was 452,044 tons, up 35,619 tons; cast aluminum alloy inventory on the SHFE was 53,690 tons, down 9,041 tons [2]. - **Other indicators**: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was - 36,054 hands, down 7,332 hands; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.32, down 0.05; the registered warrants of cast aluminum alloy on the SHFE were 42,944 tons, down 2,047 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Price**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price was 23,470 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,730 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the country was 24,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum price was 23,430 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 1,815 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 155 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the basis of alumina was - 284 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan [2]. - **Premium and discount**: The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium and discount was - 140 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium and discount was 30.63 US dollars/ton, down 6.95 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and utilization rate**: Alumina production was 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 83.00%, down 1.00%; the alumina开工率 was 82.10%, down 0.39% [2]. - **Supply and demand**: The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina was 28.90 million tons, up 2.32 million tons [2]. - **Import and export**: The export volume of alumina was 15.00 million tons, down 4.00 million tons; the import volume of alumina was 18.10 million tons, up 0.20 million tons; the import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 136,323.65 tons, down 56,401.89 tons; the export volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 55.23 tons, up 33.81 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and capacity**: The production of primary aluminum was 201,491.17 tons, up 12,566.45 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum was 10,039.89 tons, down 3,249.90 tons; the total capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,540.20 million tons, unchanged; the production of aluminum products was 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 27.08 million tons, down 39.41 million tons; the production of aluminum alloy was 182.50 million tons, unchanged [2]. - **Export**: The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 43.00 million tons, down 11.00 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 1.33 million tons, down 1.09 million tons [2]. - **Operating rate**: The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum was 98.93%, up 0.04% [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Real estate**: The national real estate climate index was 91.45, down 0.44 [2]. - **Automobile**: The automobile production was 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 24.08%, down 0.57%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 31.82%, down 0.04%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21.36%, down 0.0027 [2]. - **Ratio**: The call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.90, up 0.1753 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Geopolitical**: The US - Iran negotiation is in a deadlock. The US President Trump said that the US and Iran had a "strong" dialogue and formed the main points of an agreement, but Iran denied it [2]. - **Domestic policy**: President Xi Jinping inspected Xiongan New Area and emphasized its function positioning; the "upgraded" China - EU export control dialogue mechanism held its second meeting; the National Data Bureau will promote the power - computing synergy project; State Power Investment plans to invest 200 billion yuan in 2026, with a 17% year - on - year increase [2]. - **Overseas policy**: The US Vice - President Vance discussed the Iran negotiation with the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu; the Fed's Goolsbee said that inflation is the primary risk, not excluding the possibility of raising interest rates, and still retaining the space for interest rate cuts this year [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Positive trends: Zinc, iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, manganese silicon,动力煤, log, LPG, propylene, soda ash [17][53][57][60][67][71][127][122] - Negative trends: PX, PTA, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, eggs, live pigs [77][133][183][187] - Neutral trends: Gold, silver, copper, lead, tin, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, platinum, palladium, nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, coke, coking coal, para-xylene, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, PVC, container shipping index (European line), staple fiber, bottle chips, offset printing paper, pure benzene, palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybeans, corn, sugar, cotton, peanuts [7][11][18][21][25][29][34][42][47][61][73][79][82][86][90][95][100][103][109][113][130][135][152][155][159][162][167][170][174][178][189] 2. Core Views - The market is significantly affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation between the US and Iran, which impacts energy prices and commodity supply chains [10][11][19] - Different commodities show various trends due to their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and policy influences [77][87][147] 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have led to price fluctuations, with a nine - day consecutive decline in spot gold [7][9] - **Silver**: Fell from the shock platform [2] Base Metals - **Copper**: Disturbances increased, price volatility amplified, affected by geopolitical news and supply - side factors [11] - **Zinc**: Rebounded from the bottom [14] - **Lead**: Lacked clear drivers, prices fluctuated [18] - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [21] - **Aluminum**: Inventory accumulation slowed down; alumina showed high - level fluctuations; cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum [25] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: There were contradictions between macro and ore - end factors, and short - term long - short games intensified in nickel; stainless steel was suppressed by overseas macro factors and supported by real - world costs [34] Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: Attention should be paid to the bottom support [42] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon focused on inventory changes; polysilicon showed bottom - level fluctuations [47][48] - **Iron Ore**: At a high level technically, with increased volatility [51] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Driven by the high sentiment of the raw material sector, they showed a strong - side shock [55] - **Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: The sector showed resonance, with a strong - side shock, and the long - position sentiment of manganese silicon was high, but attention should be paid to position risks [58] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Market sentiment fermented, showing a strong - side shock [61] - **动力煤**: The sentiment was strong, and port transactions moved up [65] - **Para - xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene and PTA were in a short - term shock market and were still strong in the medium term; MEG had tight supply and a strong medium - term trend [73] - **Rubber and Synthetic Rubber**: Rubber showed wide - range fluctuations; synthetic rubber had wide - range intraday fluctuations due to geopolitical uncertainties [79][82] - **LLDPE and PP**: LLDPE saw a reduction in derivatives and poor cost transmission; PP was strongly supported by C3 raw materials, but spot prices followed the increase slowly [86] - **Caustic Soda**: Showed wide - range fluctuations [90] - **Pulp**: Showed a strong - side shock [95] - **Glass**: The price of the raw sheet was stable [100] - **Methanol**: Showed wide - range fluctuations [103] - **Urea**: Operated within a range [109] - **Styrene**: Showed high - level fluctuations [113] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changed little [120] - **LPG and Propylene**: LPG had geopolitical risks and frequent supply disturbances; propylene had supply reduction expectations due to geopolitical impacts on the cost side [124] - **PVC**: Showed wide - range fluctuations [130] - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil prices declined, and short - term fluctuations continued to expand; low - sulfur fuel oil continued to weaken, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continued to decline [133] Agricultural Products - **Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips**: Showed high - level fluctuations due to geopolitical uncertainties [152] - **Offset Printing Paper**: It was recommended to wait and see [155] - **Pure Benzene**: Showed high - level fluctuations [159] - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil was affected by oil price disturbances and showed high - level fluctuations; soybean oil had limited upward space [162] - **Soybean Meal and Soybeans**: Overnight US soybeans rose slightly, and Dalian soybean meal might fluctuate; spot soybeans adjusted prices following futures [167] - **Corn**: Operated in a fluctuating manner [170] - **Sugar**: Operated within a range [174] - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [178] - **Eggs**: Showed weak - side fluctuations [182] - **Live Pigs**: The weight - reduction drive was approaching, and the near - end pressure increased [185] - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts [189] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Geopolitical disturbances were repeated, and the intraday fluctuations of the EC market were greatly affected by geopolitical sentiment [135]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina: The alumina market may be in a stage of excessive supply and stable demand with positive consumption expectations. It is recommended to trade with a light - position and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum market may be in a stage of stable supply and warming demand, with a slight increase in industrial inventory and positive industry expectations. Options market sentiment is bullish. It is recommended to trade with a light - position and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cast aluminum alloy market may be in a stage of increasing supply and weakening demand. It is recommended to trade with a light - position and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum and Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 23,555 yuan/ton, down 465 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,093 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan. The main - second - contract spread of Shanghai aluminum was - 95 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; that of alumina was - 36 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. The main - contract positions of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 13,232 hands to 266,791 hands, while those of alumina increased by 974 hands to 246,810 hands [2]. - **LME Aluminum**: The three - month LME electrolytic aluminum quotation was 3,192 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 429,675 tons, down 3,050 tons [2]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the casting aluminum alloy main contract was 22,525 yuan/ton, down 285 yuan; the registered warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 44,991 tons, down 2,741 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 24,400 yuan/ton, down 630 yuan; the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum was 24,030 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price of Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,730 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2]. - **Base Spread**: The base spread of casting aluminum alloy was 1,875 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the base spread of electrolytic aluminum was - 115 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan; the base spread of alumina was - 363 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina Production**: The monthly alumina production was 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the national alumina starting rate was 82.10%, down 0.39%; the total alumina capacity utilization rate was 83.00%, down 1.00% [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan was 18,650 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; in Shandong, it was 17,950 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan. China's import of aluminum scrap and fragments decreased by 56,401.89 tons to 136,323.65 tons, and the export increased by 33.81 tons to 55.23 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Aluminum Supply and Demand**: The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was 21.82 million tons, up 1.33 million tons; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 129.90 million tons, up 0.40 million tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,540.20 million tons, unchanged [2]. - **Aluminum Production and Trade**: The monthly aluminum product output was 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 43.00 million tons, down 11.00 million tons; the export of aluminum alloy was 1.33 million tons, down 1.09 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile and Real Estate**: The monthly automobile production was 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles; the national real estate prosperity index was 91.45, down 0.44 [2]. - **Alloy Production**: The monthly aluminum alloy production was 182.50 million tons, unchanged; the monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 27.08 million tons, and the total built - in production capacity was 126.00 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money was 21.63%, up 0.0202%; the put - call ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.73, up 0.0271 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Premier Li Qiang emphasized China's stance on market competition and maintaining a fair market order at the China Development Forum 2026 [2]. - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng announced the central bank's monetary policy stance, including supporting economic growth, maintaining liquidity, and promoting financial opening [2]. - Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with the US - China Business Council delegation, expressing the hope for stable Sino - US economic and trade relations [2]. - Minister of Finance Lan Fuan announced fiscal policies to boost consumption, including issuing special treasury bonds and setting up special funds [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle - East situation continues to suppress market sentiment. Inflation and economic weakness risks are weighing on the market. However, for copper, the supply of raw materials is tight, and future inventory digestion may support copper prices. For aluminum, overseas supply remains tight, and domestic inventory reduction may support prices. For lead, the price has multi - factor contradictions and may further decline. For zinc, it is in a downward trend. For tin, it is expected to run weakly. For nickel, it may follow the downward trend in the short - term but has bottom support in the medium - term. For lithium carbonate, the price has some support. For alumina, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended. For stainless steel, it will maintain high - level volatility. For cast aluminum alloy, the price has some support [2][4][7][9][11][13][16][19][22][25] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: On Friday, LME copper 3M contract closed down 3.09% to $11,834/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 93,210 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 6,925 to 342,350 tons, and SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 22,000 to 411,000 tons. The spot in East China had a slightly wider discount, and the import was profitable. The refined - scrap copper price difference was inverted [1] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Middle - East situation has not cooled down, and inflation and economic weakness continue to suppress the market. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the consumption sentiment is not very positive but improving. Future inventory digestion will support copper prices. Short - term copper prices may continue to find the bottom. The reference range for SHFE copper main contract is 92,000 - 94,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $11,500 - $12,000/ton [2] Aluminum - **Market Information**: On Friday, LME aluminum 3M contract closed down 1.54% to $3,192/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 23,530 yuan/ton. SHFE weighted contract positions decreased by 10,000 to 586,000 tons, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 10,000 to 404,000 tons. Aluminum ingot and bar inventories decreased, and the processing fee of aluminum bars increased. The spot discount in East China narrowed. LME inventory decreased by 3,000 to 430,000 tons [3] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The escalation of the Middle - East situation has affected the market sentiment. The supply concern has eased, but overseas supply remains tight, and domestic inventory reduction may support prices. If the war does not cool down, aluminum prices may fluctuate weakly. The reference range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 23,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,120 - $3,250/ton [4] Lead - **Market Information**: On Friday, SHFE lead index closed down 0.74% to 16,293 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell by $11 to $1,881/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,275 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was - 25 yuan/ton. SHFE lead inventory was 58,200 tons, and LME lead inventory was 284,300 tons. The social inventory decreased by 7,500 tons to 72,600 tons [6] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead concentrates has declined, and the import TC has increased. The production of primary and secondary smelters has improved, and the factory and social inventories have decreased. The lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term range, and the downstream may buy for hedging. However, the high SHFE - LME ratio has led to less exports and more imports. The high oil price has put pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector, and the lead price may further decline [7] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Friday, SHFE zinc index closed up 1.02% to 22,938 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by $3.5 to $3,086.5/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,910 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc inventory was 102,500 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 117,900 tons. The social inventory decreased by 7,200 tons to 229,000 tons. The downstream actively replenished inventory after the price decline [8] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of zinc concentrates has increased, and the import TC has continued to decline. The zinc price decline has led to a rapid decline in mining and smelting profits. The downstream has replenished inventory, but the overall inventory is still high. The high oil price and the Fed's policy expectations have put pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector, and the zinc price is in a downward trend. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment, Fed policy, and geopolitical conflicts [9] Tin - **Market Information**: On March 20, SHFE tin main contract closed at 342,480 yuan/ton, down 0.94%. SHFE inventory decreased by 789 to 9,486 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 35 to 8,920 tons. The smelter operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi have recovered, but the demand improvement is limited. The social inventory decreased by 2,770 tons to 11,035 tons [10] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin supply is still constrained by raw material shortages, and the short - term supply increase is limited. The demand has a weak improvement, and the downstream's low - price replenishment provides short - term support. Considering geopolitical factors and the decline of the US interest - rate cut expectation, the tin price is expected to run weakly. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 330,000 - 420,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $41,000 - $50,000/ton [11] Nickel - **Market Information**: On March 20, SHFE nickel main contract closed at 133,160 yuan/ton, down 1.22%. The spot premiums of different brands were stable or decreased. The cost of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron decreased slightly [12] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the Fed's hawkish stance have put pressure on risk assets, and the nickel price may follow the downward trend. In the medium - term, the global nickel supply - demand situation is improving, and the nickel price has strong bottom support. It is not recommended to short. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $16,000 - $20,000/ton. It is recommended to operate within the range [13] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 144,916 yuan, up 0.29%. The battery - grade lithium carbonate price was 141,500 - 149,200 yuan, and the industrial - grade was 138,500 - 146,000 yuan. The LC2605 contract closed at 143,860 yuan, up 0.88% [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Iran situation has led to concerns about energy shocks and the suppression of metal prices. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the production has increased. The inventory reduction has slowed down, but the consumption is still high. The lithium price has some support from downstream buying. Attention should be paid to the changes in positions, industry events, and spot premiums. The reference range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 132,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton [16] Alumina - **Market Information**: On March 20, the alumina index closed down 0.77% to 3,061 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price increased by 10 to 2,715 yuan/ton, with a discount of 326 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas FOB price was stable at $302/ton, and the import profit was 115 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 8,700 to 399,100 tons. The CIF price of bauxite in Guinea increased by $1 to $65/ton [18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Guinea government may tighten bauxite exports, and the ore price is expected to rise. The short - term supply of alumina has tightened due to maintenance, but the long - term oversupply pattern remains. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to domestic supply policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the US - Iran conflict [19] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,065 yuan/ton, up 1.52%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi increased. The raw material prices were mostly stable. The futures inventory decreased by 10,342 to 40,898 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 1.24% to 1,072,600 tons [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Middle - East situation and the Fed's hawkish stance have put pressure on the market. The stainless - steel market supply is loose, the inventory reduction is slow, and the downstream demand is weak. The market is in a game between weak macro and demand and strong cost support. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level. The reference range for the main contract is 13,700 - 14,410 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the progress of Indonesia's RKAB application review [22] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Friday, the cast aluminum alloy main contract AD2604 closed down 0.83% to 22,810 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions and trading volume decreased, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 2,600 to 47,700 tons. The domestic mainstream ADC12 price decreased, and the import price decreased by 300 yuan/ton. The upstream inventory decreased [24] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has decreased, but the demand is expected to improve with the resumption of production. The supply - side disturbances and raw material shortages provide some support for the price [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold is affected by geopolitical conflicts, silver has fallen from the oscillation platform, copper's price decline is limited by the reduction of domestic inventory, zinc's price stabilizes with fundamental support, lead's price decline is restricted by inventory reduction, tin recovers partially after a decline, aluminum experiences significant oscillations due to market panic, alumina is supported by cost, casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, platinum's sector is under significant pressure, a pessimistic view on palladium is maintained, nickel is pressured by macro - risk preference while the contradiction at the mine end limits the downward elasticity, and stainless steel is pressured by fundamentals and the macro - environment with real - cost support [2]. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of gold and silver futures and spot have declined. For example, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,062.00, with a daily decline of 4.63%; the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 18,023, with a daily decline of 9.69%. The trading volume and positions of gold and silver futures have changed to varying degrees [4]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of gold and silver has changed, and the spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures have also changed. For example, the spread between Gold T + D and AU2602 was 0.39, unchanged from the previous day, and the spread between Silver T + D and AG2602 decreased by 10 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The UK and European central banks kept interest rates unchanged and warned of inflation risks. The Japanese central bank also kept interest rates unchanged. Israel and the US tried to ease energy - market anxiety, and the US Treasury Secretary allowed Iranian oil to flow from the Gulf [4][6]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 94,420, with a daily decline of 4.25%. The trading volume and positions of Shanghai Copper and London Copper have increased [7]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 12,244 tons, and the inventory of London Copper increased by 1,325 tons. The spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures have changed [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US Treasury Secretary allowed Iranian oil to flow from the Gulf. Zambia plans to triple its copper production by 2031. Rio Tinto suspended the operation of its Kennecott copper mine in the US. China's refined copper production from January to February increased by 9% year - on - year [7][9]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,705, with a daily decline of 2.66%. The trading volume and positions of Shanghai Zinc and London Zinc have changed [10]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc increased by 1,341 tons, and the inventory of London Zinc decreased by 175 tons. The spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures have changed [10]. - **News**: The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive time, and the bond market's expectation of the Fed's policy path has changed [11]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16,415, with a daily decline of 1.41%. The trading volume and positions of Shanghai Lead and London Lead have changed [13]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead decreased by 5,113 tons, and the inventory of London Lead decreased by 125 tons. The spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures have changed [13]. - **News**: The US Treasury Secretary allowed Iranian oil to flow from the Gulf, and China's relevant departments emphasized maintaining the stability of the financial market [14]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 345,730, with a daily decline of 6.61%. The trading volume and positions of Shanghai Tin and London Tin have changed [17]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 1,037 tons, and the inventory of London Tin decreased by 10 tons. The spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures have changed [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US has no plan to ban oil and gas exports, and Trump asked Israel not to attack Iranian energy facilities [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and casting aluminum alloy futures have changed. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24,180, with a decrease of 620 compared to the previous day. The trading volume and positions of each variety have also changed [20]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of aluminum, alumina, and casting aluminum alloy has changed, and the spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures have also changed [20]. - **Comprehensive News**: The US may lift sanctions on Iranian oil, and Israel will suspend air strikes on Iranian energy facilities [21]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot have declined. For example, the closing price of Platinum Futures 2606 was 506.95, with a decline of 7.49%. The trading volume and positions of platinum and palladium have changed [22]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory and spreads of platinum and palladium have changed [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The interest - rate futures market has priced in a very small Fed rate - cut this year and has started to bet on rate hikes. Israel will suspend attacks on Iranian gas fields [24][25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 131,550, with a decrease of 3,650 compared to the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,855, with a decrease of 165 compared to the previous day. The trading volume and positions of nickel and stainless steel have changed [26]. - **Industry - Chain Data**: The prices and spreads of various products in the nickel and stainless - steel industry chains have changed. For example, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,087, with a decrease of 6 compared to the previous day [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia will revise the benchmark - price formula for nickel - ore products, and some nickel - mine operations in different regions have changed, such as the restart of a nickel - mine in Guatemala and the suspension of operations due to a landslide in Indonesia [26][27][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals are in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals are in a stage of stable supply and slightly warming demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum, the fundamentals are in a stage of rising supply and flat demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24,180 yuan/ton, down 620 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,027 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan [2] - The main - second - contract spread of Shanghai aluminum is - 95 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the main - second - contract spread of alumina is - 47 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [2] - The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum are 292,404 hands, down 14,921 hands; the main contract positions of alumina are 268,233 hands, down 5,701 hands [2] - LME aluminum canceled warrants are 163,575 tons, unchanged; the total inventory of alumina is 430,237 tons, up 27,469 tons [2] - The three - month quotation of LME electrolytic aluminum is 3,419.5 US dollars/ton, up 55 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory is 436,625 tons, down 3,700 tons [2] - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum are - 56,702 hands, up 7,453 hands; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.07, down 0.3 [2] - The closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy is 23,000 yuan/ton, down 595 yuan; the registered warrants of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 50,319 tons, down 1,109 tons [2] - The main - second - contract spread of cast aluminum alloy is - 70 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the inventory of Shanghai aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 416,425 tons, up 21,927 tons [2] - The positions of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy are 5,075 hands, down 192 hands; the inventory of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 62,731 tons, down 4,121 tons [2] - The warrants of Shanghai aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are up 1,020 tons to 393,226 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 24,490 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,680 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the country is 25,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of AOO aluminum in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 24,450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 2,000 yuan/ton, up 495 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is 310 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan [2] - The aluminum premium and discount in Shanghai Wumao is - 190 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium and discount is 132.38 US dollars/ton, up 127 US dollars [2] - The basis of alumina is - 347 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The pre - baked anode in the northwest region is 5,770 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national alumina start - up rate is 82.1%, down 0.39 percentage points [2] - Alumina production is 8.0108 million tons, down 127,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate of alumina is 83%, down 1 percentage point [2] - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 7.3129 million tons, up 253,300 tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 289,000 tons, up 23,200 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 18,950 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; China's import volume of aluminum scrap is 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap is 18,300 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; China's export volume of aluminum scrap is 70.8 tons, down 0.73 tons [2] - The export volume of alumina is 150,000 tons, down 40,000 tons; the import volume of alumina is 227,800 tons, down 4,600 tons [2] - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 204,900 tons, up 313,600 tons; the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is 1.295 million tons, up 33,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 45.402 million tons, unchanged [2] - The export volume of primary aluminum is 37,575.3 tons, down 15,472.39 tons; the start - up rate of electrolytic aluminum is 98.93%, up 0.04 percentage points [2] - The output of aluminum products is 6.1356 million tons, up 204,600 tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 430,000 tons, down 110,000 tons [2] - The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 270,800 tons, down 394,100 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 25,500 tons, down 5,100 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 1.26 million tons, unchanged; the national real estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - The output of aluminum alloy is 1.825 million tons, unchanged [2] - The automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, down 107,500 vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum for 20 days is 24.33%, up 2.05 percentage points; the historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum for 40 days is 31.86%, up 0.57 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum main contract is 18.33%, down 0.0439; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.68, up 0.0037 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Federal Reserve keeps the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a 11 - 1 vote. One member opposes and advocates a 25 - basis - point rate cut [2] - The Federal Reserve raises inflation and economic growth expectations, and Fed Chairman Powell denies the US economy is in stagflation [2] - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs says China and the US will continue to communicate on President Trump's visit to China [2] - The Federal Reserve raises the core PCE inflation expectations for 2026, 2027, and 2028, and also raises the GDP growth rate expectations [2] - The US PPI in February rises 0.7% month - on - month and 3.4% year - on - year, exceeding expectations [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For alumina, the fundamentals are in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. Suggest light - position oscillating trading and control trading rhythm and risks [2]. - For Shanghai aluminum, the fundamentals are in a stage of stable supply and slightly warming demand. Suggest light - position short - term long trading on dips and control trading rhythm and risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals are in a stage of rising supply and flat demand. Suggest light - position short - term long trading on dips and control trading rhythm and risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24,990 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,073 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan [2]. - The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 3,392 dollars/ton, down 47 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 442,825 tons, down 2,475 tons [2]. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 23,725 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 25,100 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot is 24,900 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 1,375 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 90 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The alumina production is 801.08 million tons per month, down 12.72 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 731.29 million tons per month, up 25.33 million tons [2]. - The import volume of aluminum scrap and waste is 194,102.07 tons per month, up 31,482.14 tons; the export volume of aluminum scrap and waste is 70.80 tons per month, down 0.73 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 20.49 million tons per month, up 31.36 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 129.50 million tons per week, up 3.38 million tons [2]. - The output of aluminum products is 613.56 million tons per month, up 20.46 million tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 42.96 million tons per month, down 11.04 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 27.08 million tons per month, down 39.41 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.55 million tons per month, down 0.51 million tons [2]. - The automobile production is 341.15 million vehicles per month, down 10.75 million vehicles [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 22.00%, up 0.22%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 31.36%, down 0.10% [2]. - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money option is 24.62%, up 0.0090; the put - call ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.65, up 0.0254 [2]. Industry News - Academician Ouyang Minggao said that 2026 will start a new round of high - quality development cycle led by innovation, and there will be seven technological development directions in the new energy vehicle industry in the next five years [2]. - China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Paris, forming some new consensuses and agreeing to study the establishment of a cooperation mechanism to promote bilateral trade and investment [2]. - Premier Li Qiang presided over the 11th plenary meeting of the State Council, deploying the implementation of the key work of the State Council in 2026 [2].