文字早评 2025/08/25 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 消息面： 1、工信部：将有序引导算力设施建设 加快突破 GPU 芯片等关键核心技术； 2、《稀土开采和稀土冶炼分离总量调控管理暂行办法》发布，办法规定国家对稀土开采和冶炼分离实 行总量调控管理; 3、光伏行业协会倡议，坚决抵制以低于成本的价格开展恶性竞争，坚决抵制违反市场经济规律和法律 法规盲目扩产增产； 4、美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示，形势表明美国就业下行风险上升。风险平衡 的变化可能构成调整政策的理由。鲍威尔称，美联储对降息持开放态度。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.37%/0.22%/-0.07%/-0.61%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.18%/-0.77%/-1.96%/-3.74%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.19%/-0.83%/-2.31%/-4.44%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.46%/0.32%/0.54%/0.63%。 交易逻辑：中央政治局会议强调增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好的势头， 进一步确认了政策对资本市场的呵护态度。近期持续上涨后 ...

有色金属日报 2025-8-25 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 上周铜价先抑后扬，伦铜收涨 0.5%至 9809 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 79110 元/吨。产业层面，上 周三大交易所库存环比减少 0.04 万吨，其中上期所库存减少 0.5 至 8.2 万吨，LME 库存微增至 15.6 万吨，COMEX 库存增加 0.4 至 24.6 万吨。上海保税区库存增加 0.6 ...

本报讯上期所22日发布通知称，为进一步提升市场运行质量，更好地服务实体经济发展，招募铸造铝合 金期货做市商及石油沥青、燃料油、纸浆和胶版印刷纸期权做市商。(齐宣) ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range, silver to decline slightly, and copper to await the Fed's interest - rate cut guidance with a narrowing trading range. Zinc is likely to have a weak - side oscillation, while lead's price is supported by inventory reduction. Tin and aluminum are predicted to trade within ranges, and alumina is expected to decline slightly. Cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Nickel will operate in a low - level range, and stainless - steel prices will oscillate due to the game between expectations and reality [2]. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - **Price and Performance**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 775.12 with a daily increase of 0.32%, and the night - session closing price was 776.08 with a night - session decline of 0.01%. Gold T + D closed at 771.66 with a 0.24% increase, and the night - session price was 772.50 with a 0.01% increase. Comex Gold 2510 closed at 3383.50 with a 0.26% decline, and London gold spot closed at 3338.25 with a 0.25% decline. For silver, Shanghai Silver 2510 closed at 9162 with a 1.31% increase, and the night - session price was 9233.00 with a 0.81% increase. Silver T + D closed at 9144 with a 1.33% increase, and the night - session price was 9198 with a 0.72% increase. Comex Silver 2510 closed at 38.590 with a 0.55% increase, and London silver spot closed at 38.095 with a 0.51% increase [5]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Gold 2510 and Comex Gold 2510, as well as Shanghai Silver 2510 and Comex Silver 2510, showed different changes compared to the previous day. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 decreased by 24,336, and the open interest decreased by 8,259 [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai gold remained at 36,642 kg, while Comex gold inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) decreased by 65,319. Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 25,144 kg, and Comex silver inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) increased by 347,707 [5]. - **Spread and Arbitrage Cost**: The spreads and arbitrage costs of gold and silver showed various changes. For instance, the spread between gold T + D and London gold decreased by 2.52, and the spread between silver T + D and London silver increased by 5,089 [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold's trend intensity is 1, and silver's is - 1 [8]. Copper - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 78,630 with a 0.30% decline, and the night - session price was 78,730 with a 0.13% increase. The LME copper 3M electronic - trading price closed at 9,721 with a 0.38% increase [10]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract increased by 24,847, and the open interest increased by 1,819. The LME copper 3M electronic - trading volume decreased by 718, and the open interest decreased by 2,295 [10]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 275, and LME copper inventory increased by 1,200. The spreads between different copper contracts and the arbitrage costs also changed [10]. - **News**: Before Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, some Fed officials made hawkish remarks. The US manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high in more than three years, and a smelter's maintenance period was extended due to equipment failure. Codelco restarted a smelter, and Glencore applied to include copper projects in Argentina's investment incentive plan. China's refined copper and copper concentrate imports in July had different changes [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper's trend intensity is 0 [12]. Zinc - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,240 with a 0.11% decline, and the LME zinc 3M electronic - trading price closed at 2,786 with a 0.58% increase [13]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main contract decreased by 26,050, and the open interest decreased by 568. The LME zinc trading volume decreased by 1,474, and the open interest increased by 574 [13]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai zinc inventory remained unchanged, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,875. The spreads and import - profit situations also changed [13]. - **News**: The US manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high in more than three years, and the labor - market cooling was more obvious [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc's trend intensity is 0 [15]. Lead - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,745 with a 0.12% increase, and the LME lead 3M electronic - trading price closed at 1,980.5 with a 0.33% increase [16]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 9,828, and the open interest decreased by 2,546. The LME lead trading volume decreased by 1,375, and the open interest decreased by 964 [16]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai lead inventory decreased by 1,481, and LME lead inventory decreased by 1,500. The spreads and import - profit situations also changed [16]. - **News**: Before Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, some Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and the US manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high in more than three years [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead's trend intensity is 0 [17]. Tin - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 266,480 with a 0.51% decline, and the night - session price was 266,840 with a 0.30% decline. The LME tin 3M electronic - trading price closed at 33,475 with a 0.89% decline [20]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai tin main contract decreased by 27,750, and the open interest decreased by 633. The LME tin 3M electronic - trading volume decreased by 9, and the open interest increased by 53 [20]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 71, and LME tin inventory increased by 25. The spreads between different tin contracts also changed [20]. - **News**: Before Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, some Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and the US manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high in more than three years. The euro - zone business activity reached a 15 - month high, and the US and the EU reached an agreement on the trade - agreement framework [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin's trend intensity is - 1 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,590, and the LME aluminum 3M price closed at 2,593. The Shanghai alumina main - contract price was 3,124, and the cast - aluminum alloy main - contract price was 20,125. Their prices showed different changes compared to previous periods [23]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes and open interests of Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, Shanghai alumina, and cast - aluminum alloy contracts had various changes [23]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventories of aluminum, alumina, and related products, as well as the spreads between different contracts, showed different trends [23]. - **News**: A Fed official said that there might be no interest - rate cut in September [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and cast - aluminum alloy are all 0 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 119,830, and the stainless - steel main - contract price was 12,795. Their prices showed different changes compared to previous periods [27]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes and open interests of the Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel main contracts had various changes [27]. - **Industry - Chain Data**: The prices and spreads of nickel - related products and stainless - steel products in the industry chain also changed [27]. - **News**: There were issues such as potential nickel - export suspension from Canada, a nickel - iron project in Indonesia entering the trial - production stage, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, and production suspensions in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelters [27][28][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [32].

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 20,590.00 70.00 | +55.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 0.00 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 3,124.00 4.00 | -23.00↓ +3.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 233,902.00 | +5874.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 185,979.00 | +9176.00↑ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 14,050.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 88,412. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range; silver is likely to decline slightly [2][4]. - Copper lacks a clear driver, and its price will oscillate [2][11]. - Zinc will trade within a range [2][14]. - The decreasing inventory of lead will support its price [2][17]. - Tin will trade within a range [2][20]. - Aluminum will trade in a high - level range; alumina will rise slightly in a sideways movement; cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][25]. - Nickel will have a narrow - range oscillation based on fundamental logic, and investors should be wary of news - related risks; stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the game between macro - expectations and reality [2][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing prices of沪金2510 and黄金T+D decreased by 0.31% and 0.33% respectively, while Comex黄金2510 increased by 0.99%. For silver,沪银2510 and白银T+D decreased by 1.57% and 1.74% respectively, and Comex白银2510 increased by 1.48%. The trading volumes and open interests of some contracts also changed [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of ETFs, domestic and foreign exchanges showed different trends, such as a decrease in SPDR黄金ETF持仓 by 4 and an increase in Comex白银库存 by 600,232 ounces [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals; Trump pressured Fed governor Lisa Cook; Fed's potential payment innovation with the industry; China's August LPR remained unchanged [5][22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 1; silver trend intensity is - 1 [9]. 3.2 Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪铜主力合约 decreased by 0.30% during the day and increased by 0.13% at night; the closing price of伦铜3M电子盘 increased by 0.38%. The trading volumes and open interests of both contracts changed [11]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of沪铜 decreased by 275 tons, and that of伦铜 increased by 1,200 tons. Various spreads such as LME铜升贴水 and现货 - to - futures spreads also changed [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed's meeting minutes were hawkish; China's August LPR remained unchanged; PT Smelting's maintenance was extended; Codelco's smelter restarted; Glencore applied for investment incentives; China's July copper imports data were released [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [13]. 3.3 Zinc - **Price and Related Data**: The closing price of沪锌主力 increased by 0.27%, and that of伦锌3M电子盘 decreased by 0.50%. Other data such as trading volume, open interest, and various spreads also changed [14]. - **News**: The US PPI reached 3.3%, and the growth rate of M2 was approaching 5%, which might lead to inflation [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [14]. 3.4 Lead - **Price and Related Data**: The closing price of沪铅主力 decreased by 0.59%, and that of伦铅3M电子盘 decreased by 0.33%. The inventory of沪铅 and伦铅 decreased, and other data such as trading volume, open interest, and spreads also changed [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed's meeting minutes were hawkish; China's August LPR remained unchanged [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [18]. 3.5 Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪锡主力 decreased by 0.09% during the day and 0.23% at night; the closing price of伦锡3M电子盘 increased by 0.01%. The trading volumes and open interests of both contracts changed [21]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of沪锡 decreased by 184 tons, and that of伦锡 increased by 85 tons. Various spreads also changed [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, including Fed's meeting minutes, Trump's pressure on the Fed, etc. [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is - 1 [24]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Related Data**: For aluminum,沪铝主力 and LME铝3M prices changed; for alumina,沪氧化铝主力 price changed. Various data such as trading volume, open interest, spreads, and enterprise profits also changed [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's August LPR remained unchanged; Trump pressured Fed governor Lisa Cook [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensities are all 0 [27]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Industry Chain Data**: The closing prices of沪镍主力 and不锈钢主力 changed. Various data in the industrial chain such as import profit, spreads, and raw material prices also changed [28]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Multiple events in the Indonesian nickel industry, including potential export suspension, project production, environmental violations, and production suspension; a steel mill in Shandong reduced production [28][31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel trend intensities are both 0 [33].

随着期货市场服务能力的不断增强，期货价格影响力也在持续提升。王颖表示，国内应用场景不断拓 展。在复杂多变的外部环境下，套期保值、期现套利、含权贸易等多种形式被广泛采用，期货价格深度 嵌入现货企业经营管理各环节中；同时，我国期货价格逐步成为国际贸易定价参考。期货市场对外开放 路径不断丰富，豆油、橡胶等品种期货结算价授权业务接续"走出去"，合格境外投资者参与境内期货期 权品种数量扩容至91个。 王颖还表示，期货市场日益融入国家发展大局。一是持续助力乡村振兴。"商储无忧"助力保障粮食安 全，"保险+期货"助力农户稳收增收，创新探索了多种"保险+期货"与其他业态协同融合的助农新模式。 二是深入服务制造业高质量发展。已上市的商品期货和期权中有84个工业品，占比64%，在当前不确定 因素显著增多的市场环境下，为制造业相关经营主体稳定经营、提升产业链供应链安全性提供了坚实保 障。 厚植根基 力促郑商所迈向一流期货交易所 河南作为新中国期货市场的发源地，在期货市场发展进程中占据着举足轻重的地位。多年来，当地政府 部门高度重视期货市场建设工作，出台一系列政策措施，持续推动期货市场实现高质量发展。 8月19日至20日，"2025 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and others. It provides market reviews, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each metal. Overall, due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals, the market is in a state of flux, and different trading strategies are recommended for different metals, mainly including temporary observation, waiting for new entry opportunities, and specific operations like high - selling and low - buying in certain ranges [2][6][11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.5% at $3316.035 per ounce, London silver down 1.8% at $37.32 per ounce. Affected by the external market, Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined. The US dollar index rose 0.1% to 98.26, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell slightly to 4.3038%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.03% to 7.183 [2]. - **Important Information**: There are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine leaders' summit, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is high. For example, in September, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 86.1% [2]. - **Logical Analysis**: The unexpected rise in US PPI and strong retail data have dampened the market's expectations of interest rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions are expected to ease. However, the US may face "stagflation - like" situation, so it's advisable to wait and see for new entry opportunities [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [2][4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,550 yuan per ton, down 0.23%. The LME copper closed at $9,684.5 per ton, down 0.69%. The LME inventory decreased by 450 tons to 155,100 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 873 tons to 269,900 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: Two US copper manufacturers raised prices by 5%, and First Quantum Mining started a $1.25 - billion expansion project in Zambia [6]. - **Logical Analysis**: The ore supply shortage has been temporarily alleviated, the LME inventory increase has slowed down, and domestic imports may increase, putting pressure on prices. Downstream demand shows different trends, with improved acceptance of prices [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2509 contract fell to 3,087 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed declines or remained flat [11]. - **Important Information**: An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and some alumina enterprises have maintenance plans. Alumina exports and ore imports increased [11][12]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market speculation has cooled, and the alumina market is in a state of oversupply. However, short - term supply is not significantly excessive due to maintenance plans [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may be in a high - level consolidation in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [13][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell to 20,500 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [17]. - **Important Information**: The US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list, and there are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit. Aluminum inventory remained stable [17][19]. - **Logical Analysis**: The resolution of the Russia - Ukraine issue may lead to changes in sanctions on Russian aluminum. The domestic inventory pressure has decreased, and the downstream has shown more active inventory - building [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: In unilateral trading, the price may decline with the external market; in arbitrage, short - term long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum, and exit if the talks are not successful; observe in option trading [21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell to 20,055 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly flat or slightly increased [24]. - **Important Information**: Four - ministry policy affects the recycled aluminum industry, and the industry's profit has improved in July. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [24][25]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and some factories have reduced production. The demand from downstream die - casting enterprises is weak [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may decline with aluminum prices in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc fell 0.5% to $2,770 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 fell 0.29% to 22,180 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was mainly among traders [28]. - **Important Information**: A zinc smelter in the northwest has a maintenance plan, and Tianjin has transportation restrictions [28]. - **Logical Analysis**: The domestic supply has increased, the terminal consumption is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating, putting pressure on prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead fell 0.33% to $1,974 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 fell 0.56% to 16,720 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was light [32][34]. - **Important Information**: A small - scale recycled lead smelter in the south plans to resume production [35]. - **Logical Analysis**: The consumption has not improved significantly, but the cost provides some support for the price [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try high - selling and low - buying within a range in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel fell to $15,060 per ton, and the Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell to 120,320 yuan per ton. The spot premiums of different types of nickel changed [38]. - **Important Information**: There are plans for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit [38]. - **Logical Analysis**: No detailed logical analysis provided in the text. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options [40]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell to 12,825 yuan per ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are in a certain range [42]. - **Important Information**: A German company proposed a tariff exemption for SMEs' steel imports, and the US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list. A nickel - iron factory sold high - nickel iron at a certain price [42]. - **Logical Analysis**: Global economic prospects, tariff policies, and Fed decisions affect the market. The price is expected to fluctuate widely due to lack of demand drive and cost support [43][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, down 1.26%. Most spot prices remained stable [47]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [47]. - **Logical Analysis**: The core contradiction lies in market sentiment and fundamental change expectations. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - and medium - term [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price may decline during the day; consider reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts [50]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 52,260 yuan per ton, down 0.53%. The spot prices were stable and showed a slight increase [52]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [52]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply is in excess in August, but the cost provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and there may be future policy benefits [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips within a certain price range in unilateral trading; conduct positive arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts; sell out - of - the - money put options [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 fell to 87,540 yuan per ton. The spot prices of electric and industrial carbonates increased [55]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in lithium - battery raw material imports, corporate production resumptions, and expansions. The US included lithium in the key enforcement industries [55]. - **Logical Analysis**: The spot market supply is tight, and the supply - demand gap may widen in September, supporting the price. The price may decline due to market sentiment and then rise again [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options for the 2511 contract [56]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 268,850 yuan per ton, up 0.88%. The spot prices adjusted downwards, and the trading was not active [58]. - **Important Information**: Peru and Indonesia released export data of tin [58][59]. - **Logical Analysis**: The LME tin inventory decreased, and the tin ore supply is tight. The industry is in a state of tight balance, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may continue to fluctuate in unilateral trading; observe in option trading [59].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 20,535.00 70.00 | -10.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) +25.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 3,147.00 1.00 | +27.00↑ 0.00 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 228,028.00 | -6671.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 176,803.00 | -15924.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 14,050.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 88,412.00 | +2940.00↑ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） 沪铝前20名净持仓（日，手） | 2,567.50 15,726.00 | -21.00↓ LME铝库存（日，吨） +1105.00↑ 沪伦比值 | 479,525.0 ...

铝类产业日报 2025/8/19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 20,545.00 | 环比 数据指标 -55.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 3,120.00 | 环比 -51.00↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 45.00 | +15.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 1.00 | -5.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 234,699.00 | +61704.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 192,727.00 | +15152.00↑ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 14,050.00 2,588.50 | -50.00↓ 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) -14.50↓ LME铝库存（日，吨） | 88,412.00 479,525.00 | +2940.00↑ -25.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 沪铝前20名净持仓（日，手 ...