1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In November, it may be a policy vacuum period, and the probability of rebar prices being affected by the macro - economy will weaken, possibly returning to the off - season fundamentals. One should actively pay attention to the opportunity of shorting on the rebound. For iron ore, considering the potential increase in supply, one can still pay attention to shorting opportunities above 800 and hold positions lightly in the long - term [2]. - Unilateral: Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting rebar and hot - rolled coil on the rebound. Arbitrage: Continue to pay attention to the operation opportunity of shorting rebar 01 and going long on iron ore 01. For futures - spot operations, industrial customers are advised to actively pay attention to the positive spread operation opportunity of hot - rolled coil and the hedging opportunity of establishing short positions on the rebound in November [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil 1. Price - In October, the overall price of rebar showed a trend of first falling and then rising. The rebar 01 contract on the disk rose 34 to 3106, and the spot price of Shanghai rebar was (3230, + 20). The hot - rolled coil disk price rose 55 to 3108, and the spot price of hot - rolled coil was (3310, + 0). The spot price of finished products fluctuated and rose, and was weaker than the disk price [9]. 2. Supply - In October, the blast furnace start - up rate of rebar showed a trend of first being stable and then falling. The daily average molten iron output decreased by 20,000 tons to 2363,600 tons per day. The short - process supply of rebar became loose, and the long - process production increased synchronously. By the end of October, the average start - up rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 67.86%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.99 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.72 percentage points. The short - process steel mills increased production significantly in October. As of October 31, the weekly output of rebar was 2.1259 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 55,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 305,300 tons. The monthly average output of hot - rolled coils was 3.2317 million tons, an increase of 172,300 tons compared with the same period in 2024, and the fluctuation range was reduced to 28,500 tons [12][18][21]. 3. Demand - In terms of building materials demand, in October, the funds in place at construction sites improved. Both speculative and terminal demands were normally released, and the demand recovery accelerated, especially in late October. For hot - rolled coils, in October, the PMI weakened again, with the demand sub - items declining. The domestic industrial material demand was under obvious pressure [24][27]. 4. Profit - In October, coke prices increased by 2 rounds and the third round was still under negotiation, causing the long - process profit to decline significantly. As of October 30, the loss of East China rebar was 50 - 80 yuan, and the profit of hot - rolled coil was 70 - 100 yuan. The short - process loss was still obvious, but it narrowed due to the increase in finished product prices [31]. 5. Inventory - As of October 30, the total inventory of rebar in 139 steel mills was 1.7171 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 128,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 170,100 tons. The social inventory of rebar was 4.3081 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 125,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.4824 million tons. The total inventory of rebar increased slightly in October. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils increased by 300,000 tons month - on - month, and the factory inventory decreased by 40,000 tons month - on - month [34][37]. 6. Basis - In October, the rebar basis showed a trend of narrowing. The basis at the end of September was 128, and on October 30, it was 94, narrowing by 34 in the month. For hot - rolled coils, the basis changed from 57 to - 8 and became negative again. The current premium of the two varieties is low, and the space for the basis to continue narrowing is limited [40]. 7. Inter - period - In October, the inversion of the 10 - 1 spread of rebar continued, and the reverse arbitrage position widened from - 56 to - 64, with the degree of inversion deepening significantly. The main reason for the un - repaired inversion was the approaching off - season, which made the near - month contract weaker [43]. 8. Inter - variety - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar on the disk widened significantly, from 181 to 212, and the spot spread first narrowed and then widened, remaining at 100. The spread between the disk and the spot changed synchronously. It is expected that the spread will show a fluctuating downward trend when the demand for building materials weakens and the price of hot - rolled coils declines, and one can pay attention to the opportunity of lightly shorting the spread [46]. II. Iron Ore 1. Price - In October, the iron ore price showed a trend of first falling and then rising. After the cost of Simandou was announced, the market started to trade the rebound of iron ore driven by the strengthening of finished products. The 01 contract rose 19.5 to 800, and the price of PB fines at Rizhao Port rose 23 to 800 yuan/ton [50]. 2. Supply - In October, the weekly average global iron ore shipment volume was 33.021 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 200,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.08 million tons. The cumulative global iron ore shipment volume increased by 22.14 million tons year - on - year. The weekly average arrival volume was 26.70125 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 900,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.3 million tons. The cumulative arrival volume of 47 ports decreased by 12.22 million tons year - on - year [53][56][59]. 3. Demand - Rigid demand: In October, the blast furnace start - up rate first remained stable and then declined, and the overall demand decreased slightly. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 20,000 tons to 236.36 tons per day. Speculative demand: The average daily spot trading volume of major Chinese ports by traders was 1.104 million tons per day, with a month - on - month increase of 64,000 tons [62][66]. 4. Inventory - Port inventory: In October, the iron ore inventory in 47 ports in China showed a fluctuating increase, and the total inventory increased by 7.22 million tons compared with the end of last month. Downstream inventory: As of September 29, the total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 88.49 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 11.86 million tons [69][72]. 5. Shipping - In October, the shipping prices from Australia to Qingdao and from Brazil to Qingdao diverged. The price from Western Australia to Qingdao increased by 0.25 US dollars, and the price from Brazil to Qingdao decreased by 1 US dollar [75]. 6. Spread - In October, the iron ore basis showed a trend of fluctuating widening. The 01 contract was at a discount of 47, and the basis was currently neutral with limited space for further widening. The 1 - 5 spread widened from 21 to 23, and the current spread was at a medium level with no obvious trading value [78].