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建筑材料行业研究周报:长三角熟料价格开始推涨,市场信心有望重塑
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-06-02 10:23
Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The cement clinker price in the Yangtze River Delta has increased by 30 CNY/ton, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment and a proactive approach from companies to stabilize prices and protect profits [3][14] - The overall cement shipment rate in May was 48%, showing a slight decline year-on-year, but the recent price increase is expected to boost market confidence [3][17] - The report highlights that traditional building materials are nearing a cyclical bottom, while new materials are expected to continue their growth trajectory due to high demand and domestic substitution opportunities [19] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.08%, while the building materials sector rose by 0.59%, with the ceramics sector showing the highest increase of 3.77% [12][17] - Key stocks in the recommended portfolio include Zhongcai Technology (+5.1%), Western Cement (+4.1%), and others [12][19] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 2.46% year-on-year, but government policies are aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [2][14] - The report anticipates that cement prices will rise following the clinker price increase, supported by a decrease in coal prices [3][14] Key Sub-Industries Tracking - Cement: The national average price fell by 0.8%, but the Yangtze River Delta has initiated price increases, indicating potential stabilization in the market [17] - Glass: The photovoltaic glass market is under pressure, with prices declining, while float glass prices have also seen a slight decrease [18][19] - Fiberglass: The market for alkali-free yarn continues to decline, with prices dropping by 0.62% week-on-week [19] Long-term Value and Growth Potential - Traditional building material leaders are expected to show significant long-term value, while new energy materials are likely to continue their growth [19] - Recommendations include companies like Western Cement, Huaxin Cement, and others that are positioned to benefit from improving infrastructure and real estate demand [19]