Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the PVC market continued the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with prices under downward pressure. The market lacked obvious support due to high - level supply, accumulated inventory, and the uncertainty of Indian anti - dumping policies, resulting in a weak and volatile price trend [2][34]. - In the short term, the PVC supply - demand fundamentals have not improved significantly, and inventory pressure persists. Prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. Although downstream demand has slightly recovered after the holiday, it remains weak overall [2][34]. - In the long - term, attention should be paid to changes in export policies, especially the final implementation time and intensity of India's anti - dumping duties. The actual impact of the six - department building materials industry growth - stabilizing work plan on the PVC industry also needs to be monitored [2][34]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - PVC futures and spot prices oscillated weakly. As of the night session on October 10, the main PVC futures price was 4,723 yuan/ton, fluctuating slightly compared to the end of September. The trading volume remained at a moderate level of 255,000 lots. From October 9 to 10, the open interest of the PVC2601 contract increased significantly, indicating high hedging pressure [4]. - In the spot market, regional price differences remained stable but showed a downward trend. The prices in different regions were in different ranges, and they briefly increased at the beginning of the month due to futures fluctuations and then declined again at the end of the month due to weak demand. The ethylene - based price was relatively stable, but the trading atmosphere was light [5]. 2. Fundamental Analysis Supply Side - Capacity and operation: As of October 10, the overall PVC operating load rate was 76.11%, with the calcium carbide - based operating rate at 78.97% and the ethylene - based operating rate at 77.52%. New production capacity was put into operation in September, and the effective domestic calcium carbide - based PVC production capacity increased to 21.465 million tons. Although there were some maintenance activities, the long - term capacity increase offset the short - term reduction, and the supply pressure continued to expand [14]. - Maintenance: After the holiday, some devices were under maintenance, but the overall maintenance intensity was limited and could not alleviate the supply surplus situation [14]. Inventory - As of October 10, the in - factory PVC inventory was 384,000 tons, and the social inventory was 1.036 million tons, both increasing year - on - year. The social inventory had been accumulating for 13 consecutive weeks since early July, and the high inventory was one of the core factors suppressing the market. The inventory pressure was difficult to relieve in the short term [17]. Demand Side - Domestic demand was weak. The real estate market, the core consumption area of PVC, was still in a slump, with significant year - on - year declines in construction area, new construction area, investment, and completion area from January to August 2025. The downstream enterprise operating rates were at a low level, and the demand support was limited [20]. - Export support weakened. Although the export volume in August increased year - on - year, the expected implementation of India's anti - dumping duties and the anti - dumping investigation on PVC wallpapers in September pressured export orders. The "rush - to - export" behavior in the early stage over - drafted demand, and the export rhythm slowed down significantly in September [21]. Cost and Profit Analysis - Cost: The production cost of PVC mainly consists of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based processes. The calcium carbide price accounts for over 80% of the calcium carbide - based PVC cost, and coal price fluctuations significantly affect the cost. The overall PVC industry is in a loss state, with a loss of about 750 yuan/ton for calcium carbide - based PVC and about 650 yuan/ton for ethylene - based PVC [26]. - Cost trend: In September, the average calcium carbide market price rose sharply, driving up the calcium carbide - based PVC production cost by 2.41% to 5,132 yuan/ton. The ethylene - based cost slightly increased to 5,617 yuan/ton. However, it is expected that the cost support will gradually weaken [27]. - Profit: As of the end of September, the calcium carbide - based PVC gross profit was about - 444 yuan/ton, and the ethylene - based gross profit was - 467 yuan/ton. The cost increase and product price decline formed a "scissors gap", suppressing enterprises' production enthusiasm [28][29]. 3. Summary and Outlook - In the short term, the PVC supply - demand fundamentals remain unchanged, and inventory pressure persists. Prices will continue to fluctuate within a range. Although downstream demand has slightly recovered, it is still weak. The implementation of maintenance plans in October is expected to reduce the operating rate, but the supply surplus pattern is difficult to reverse [34]. - In the long - term, pay attention to changes in export policies and the actual impact of the building materials industry growth - stabilizing work plan. - Futures strategy: Given the weak supply - demand pattern of PVC, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities, especially when inventory pressure appears and export expectations weaken. - Spot market: The trading volume remains low, and prices lack obvious support. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to supply - side changes and inventory adjustment signals [34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is affected by multiple factors. Although the overall steel inventory is still accumulating, the accumulation rate is slowing down, and the apparent demand is accelerating to recover. The iron - water production is expected to remain high this week. The approaching typhoon in South China may affect construction site demand, but the demand may recover after the festival as the weather cools down, and steel may enter an inventory inflection point. However, there is a lack of upward drive currently, and there may be a risk of decline around the holiday. If the downstream demand recovers more than expected in October, steel prices may rise further. Attention should be paid to peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - **Related Prices**: Shanghai Zhongtian螺纹is priced at 3250 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye螺纹is 3180 yuan (-10), Shanghai Angang热卷is 3400 yuan (+10), and Tianjin Hegang热卷is 3320 yuan (-10) [6]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: The market is expected to maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to close out previous long positions to take profits [8]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and the short position on the卷螺差[8]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Important Information** - As of September 23, the sample construction site fund availability rate was 59.54%, a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points. The non - housing project fund availability rate was 61.34%, up 0.13 percentage points week - on - week, and the housing project fund availability rate was 50.99%, up 0.41 percentage points week - on - week [8]. - In 2025, the country plans to start the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential areas. From January to August, 21,700 old urban residential areas were newly started for renovation. Hebei, Liaoning, Chongqing, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps have all started the work [10]. Related Attachments - Multiple figures are provided, including those related to螺纹and热卷contract basis, spreads, profit margins, and cost differences, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [14][16][18].