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淀粉期货周报-20260311
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2026-03-11 02:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The CS2605 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the basis maintained between -40 and -60 yuan/ton. The upward movement is supported by corn costs, enterprises' willingness to hold prices, and downstream rigid - demand purchases, while the downward movement is limited by the expansion of the far - month discount, the off - season of terminal consumption, and the expectation of gradual release of warehouse receipts. The market is in a weak equilibrium pattern of "cost - driven, strong spot, moderate increase in warehouse receipts, and no policy intervention", and the fluctuations are dominated by raw material prices and enterprise profit margins [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The CS2605 contract showed a volatile upward trend during the week, with a cumulative increase of 44 yuan/ton and a gain of 1.65%. The average daily trading volume was about 120,000 lots, and the open interest climbed slowly, indicating an increase in the participation of long - position traders in the market. The closing price of 2,711 yuan/ton was higher than the previous week's closing price of 2,667 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 2,710 yuan/ton. Technically, it broke through the key psychological level of 2,700 yuan/ton, and the market sentiment was bullish [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Regional prices: The mainstream quotes in Shandong were 2,840 - 2,920 yuan/ton, in Hebei 2,880 - 2,950 yuan/ton, in Jilin 2,700 - 2,750 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang 2,630 - 2,700 yuan/ton. Compared with the previous week, prices in North and East China generally increased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton, while prices in Northeast China remained stable. Enterprises generally reported high procurement costs of raw material corn, and the mild recovery of procurement demand from downstream industries such as food, paper - making, and starch sugar supported the firmness of spot prices [4] 3.3 Influencing Factors - Corn raw material costs remained high: On March 6, 2026, the average purchase price of North China corn was 2,455 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 32 yuan/ton, and in Northeast China it was 2,315 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/ton. The strengthening of corn prices directly pushed up the production cost of starch [5] - The operating rate of enterprises rebounded: The operating rates of deep - processing enterprises in Northeast and North China increased by 2 - 3 percentage points week - on - week, and the starch output increased. However, due to the tight procurement of raw materials, enterprises had a strong willingness to raise prices, and the inventory pressure did not accumulate significantly [5] - Registered warehouse receipts increased slightly: The delivery resources improved marginally, but the absolute quantity was still at a historical low and did not form an effective selling pressure [5] - Logistics and transportation recovered: The impact of snowfall in Northeast China subsided, the efficiency of railway and road transportation increased, the outward transportation of starch was smooth, and the arrival volume at southern ports increased, but the regional price difference was not significantly alleviated [5]