Core Viewpoint - The recent progress in China-US trade talks has led to a stronger Chinese yuan, with the central bank setting the midpoint exchange rate below 7.2 for the first time since early April, indicating a potential shift in currency dynamics amid easing trade tensions [1][3]. Currency Exchange Rate Dynamics - On May 13, the Chinese yuan's midpoint was set at 7.1991, a 75-point increase from the previous day, reflecting a significant strengthening against a basket of currencies [1][5]. - The dollar index remains strong, with the dollar appreciating against major currencies like the yen and euro, while the yuan's strength appears to be a response to the easing of tariff pressures [1][10]. - Analysts predict that the yuan could strengthen further to a range of 7.15 to 7.18, depending on economic conditions and trade negotiations [2][4]. Market Reactions and Predictions - The market has reacted positively to the joint statement from the China-US trade talks, which aims to eliminate unreasonable tariffs imposed since April [7]. - Short-term currency movements will depend on the balance of market forces, particularly the behavior of export companies regarding currency holdings [4][6]. - Institutions expect that the yuan's mid-term trajectory will be influenced by China's economic fundamentals and the outcomes of ongoing trade discussions [6][8]. Broader Economic Implications - The potential for further easing of monetary policy in China is anticipated, especially in light of recent economic indicators and the need to support the real estate market [8][12]. - The recent rebound in US stock indices and the dollar's performance suggest a temporary halt in the trend of shorting dollar assets, with market participants closely monitoring future developments [10][11].