宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 点评报告 2025 年 11 月 20 日 10 月外汇市场分析报告 美元反弹无碍人民币升值，"双节"扰动消退 相关研究报告 《2022 年外汇市场分析报告：人民币汇率大起 大落，彰显外汇市场韧性》20230201 《2023 年外汇市场分析报告：人民币汇率延续 调整，境内外汇供求和跨境资金流动生变》 20240123 《2024 年外汇市场分析报告：汇率维稳目标顺 利完成，境内外汇供求缺口扩大》20250123 《1 月外汇市场分析报告：人民币汇率双向波 动，外汇供求缺口继续扩大》20250221 《2 月外汇市场分析报告：人民币汇率延续双向 波动，外汇供求缺口收窄》20250321 《3 月外汇市场分析报告：特朗普关税政策加 码，银行结售汇差额转正》20250424 《4 月外汇市场分析报告：极限关税施压无碍银 行结售汇顺差扩大》20250521 《5 月外汇市场分析报告：中美贸易冲突缓和， 人民币汇率压力明显缓解，银行结售汇顺差继 续扩大》20250622 证券分析师: 刘立品 (8610)66229236 lipin.liu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务 ...

记者丨 叶麦穗 编辑丨曾芳 人民币汇率走强，11月14日，人民币对美元汇率在岸价逼近7.09，一度达到7.0908，创一年来新高。 专家表示，受益于美元整体偏弱的外部环境、国内权益市场表现亮眼吸引外资流入等，人民币对美元汇率稳中有升，整体维持较强韧性。 展望未来，短期内人民币对美元汇率仍将处于偏强运行状态，并有望在2026年保持温和升值。 中间价上涨近1 0 0 0个基点 中国外汇交易中心数据显示，11月14日，人民币对美元中间价调升40个基点，报7.0825， 今年以来，人民币中间价年内涨幅约1000个基点。 "近期人民币对美元汇率中间价上调，主要源于美元指数小幅走低。" 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，近期在全球汇市波动加大过程中，人 民币对美元汇率中间价向偏强方向调整力度有所加大。 对于近期人民币对美元汇率的偏强表现，王青分析，年初以来国内经济走势偏强，在美元指数大幅下跌情况下，人民币对美元汇率尽管有所升 值，但未能与自身价值充分匹配。 市场汇率方面， 11月14日，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率同样呈现小幅上涨走势，截至北京时间12点，在岸人民币报7.0937，离岸人民币报 7.0935。 此外，中国外汇 ...

Core Points - The People's Bank of China authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trade System to announce the central parity rate of the Renminbi against the US dollar at 7.0864 on October 30, which represents a depreciation of 21 basis points compared to the previous day's rate of 7.0843 [1] - On the same day, both onshore and offshore Renminbi appreciated slightly against the US dollar, with the onshore rate at 7.0970, reflecting an increase of 0.03%, and the offshore rate at 7.0933, showing an increase of 0.05% as of 10:10 AM [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar signals a stable expectation in the currency market, with the RMB middle rate reaching its highest level since October 15, 2024, at 7.0881 on October 27, 2025 [1] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB middle rate has shown a continuous upward trend, supported by a favorable external environment and strong domestic economic performance [1][2] - As of October 27, the onshore RMB opened at 7.1083 against the US dollar, reflecting an increase of over 100 points, and stabilized around 7.11 [1] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index rose to 97.6, marking a 0.5% weekly increase, the highest level since April 2025 [2] Group 2: External Factors Influencing RMB - The US dollar index has decreased by 8.82% year-to-date, despite a recent slight rebound, primarily due to the weakness of non-US currencies like the Japanese yen [2][3] - Analysts expect the US dollar to maintain a weak trend in the long term due to anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and concerns over the US fiscal outlook [2][3] Group 3: Domestic Economic Support - The domestic economic fundamentals are expected to provide a supportive role for the RMB exchange rate, with a high sensitivity to growth-promoting policies [3] - The People's Bank of China has sufficient policy tools to stabilize the exchange rate, indicating a flexible adjustment approach to mitigate unilateral market expectations [3]

Group 1: Financial Futures - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Domestically, the expectation of a缓和 in Sino-US trade relations has increased, but short - term expectations for negotiation results should not be too high. Overseas, the US government shutdown has led to data vacuum, and the market's concerns about the economy have eased but risks remain. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, but the actual impact may be limited. Attention should be paid to the subsequent release of US employment and inflation data [1] - Summary by relevant catalogs: - Macro: Focus on the Fourth Plenary Session and the APEC Summit. The US government shutdown may cause a temporary rise in unemployment. Trump's actions and statements have affected the oil market. India and the US are close to reaching a trade agreement [1] - RMB exchange rate: The RMB exchange rate has basically stabilized within a narrow range. Although the external environment is uncertain, it is expected to remain stable at a reasonable and balanced level. It is recommended to wait and see [2][3] - Stock index: The stock market is in a wait - and - see state. It is necessary to focus on the release of information from the Fourth Plenary Session. Before there is substantial progress in Sino - US trade, the stock index's sensitivity to it has weakened. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying straddle options [4][5] - Treasury bond: The bond market is waiting for news guidance. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions at low levels and go long on dips for those with empty positions [5][6] - Container shipping European line: The futures price continues to consolidate at a high level. There are both long and short factors. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term. Trend traders can try long positions lightly, and arbitrage traders can pay attention to the opportunity of spread regression [7][8] Group 2: Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends. Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment stage; copper prices are affected by multiple factors and are expected to fluctuate within a range; the alumina industry is in an oversupply situation; zinc spreads continue to expand; nickel and stainless steel are waiting for clear signals; tin is expected to be strong; lithium carbonate is expected to be strong; industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a shock adjustment; lead is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [9][13][16][17][19][20][22][24][25] - Summary by relevant catalogs: - Gold & Silver: In the short - term adjustment stage, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium term. London gold has resistance at 4150 and support at 4000; silver has resistance at 50 - 50.5 and strong resistance at 55, support at 48 [9][11] - Copper: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate within the range of 84000 - 86000. Speculators can go long on dips around 85000 ± 500. Downstream enterprises can adopt a combined strategy to reduce procurement costs, and enterprises with inventory pressure can use call options for hedging [12][13][14] - Aluminum industry chain: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the APEC Sino - US meeting and the change of alumina cost [14][15][16] - Zinc: The spread continues to expand. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the opening of the export window and the possibility of macro - upward drive [17] - Nickel, stainless steel: Continue to fluctuate, waiting for clear signals. Pay attention to Sino - US tariff issues and the change of nickel ore quota in 2026 [17][19] - Tin: It is expected to be strong. The supply is weaker than the demand, and it is recommended to hold long positions [20] - Lithium carbonate: The bottom space is stable, and it is expected to be strong. Pay attention to downstream production scheduling and supply - side resumption [21][22] - Industrial silicon & Polysilicon: Industrial silicon may see a small increase in price due to enterprise production cuts in the dry season, but it is restricted by inventory. Polysilicon has production cuts in the southwest region, and the specific impact needs to be observed [23][24] - Lead: It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. It is recommended to sell both call and put options to earn option premiums [25] Black Metals - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Steel products are expected to rebound in the short term but be weak in the long term. Iron ore is under pressure. Coking coal and coke have a strong bottom support but limited rebound space. Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are under pressure due to weak downstream demand and high inventory [26][28][30][31] - Summary by relevant catalogs: - Rebar & Hot - rolled coil: It is expected to rebound in the short term but be weak in the long term. Pay attention to the Fourth Plenary Session and the possibility of policy stimulus [26] - Iron ore: Under the dual pressure of macro - sentiment and fundamentals, it is in a weak shock. The key lies in policy signals [28] - Coking coal & Coke: The coking coal spot market is tight, but the downstream contradiction has intensified, and the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to treat it with a shock mindset [29][30] - Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese: The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is high. If there is no super - expected stimulus policy, the price will be under pressure [31] Energy and Chemicals - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Crude oil has a short - term rebound but long - term concerns. LPG follows the rise of crude oil. PTA - PX follows the cost - end shock. MEG is under pressure and is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Methanol fluctuates under pressure. PP's supply pressure is temporarily relieved. PE's supply is strong and demand is weak. Pure benzene and styrene rebound at a low level. Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are affected by supply and demand. Asphalt is affected by raw material concerns. Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda need to pay attention to supply changes [33][35][37][38][43][44][48][50][53][54][55][56][57][59][60] - Summary by relevant catalogs: - Crude oil: The short - term rebound is due to sanctions, but there are long - term supply surpluses [33][35] - LPG: Follows the rise of crude oil, and the price is expected to fluctuate with crude oil in the short term [36][37] - PTA - PX: Follows the cost - end shock. It is recommended to wait and see on the one - hand and expand the processing fee on TA01 when it is below 280 [38][39][40] - MEG: Under pressure, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options after the macro situation is determined [41][42][43] - Methanol: Fluctuates under pressure. The port inventory accumulation is smoothed, and the price range is 2250 - 2350 [44] - PP: The supply pressure is temporarily relieved, and it is recommended to shrink the L - P spread in the short term [47][48] - PE: The supply is strong and demand is weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro and cost changes [49][50][51] - Pure benzene & Styrene: Rebound at a low level. It is recommended to shrink the price spread in the short term and wait and see on the one - hand [52][53] - Fuel oil: The supply tension is relieved, and the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking is bearish [54] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The supply is narrowed, the demand is weak, and the upward drive is limited [55] - Asphalt: Affected by raw material concerns, it is recommended to wait and see or short at a high level [56] - Glass, Soda ash, Caustic soda: Soda ash has long - term supply pressure; glass has high inventory and weak demand; caustic soda needs to observe the replenishment demand [57][59][60] Pulp, Logs, etc. - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Pulp and offset paper may continue to rise in the short term but are restricted above. Logs have a new low in the month - spread. Propylene is expected to fluctuate [60][61][62][63][65][66] - Summary by relevant catalogs: - Pulp & Offset paper: Pulp prices are expected to fluctuate upward, and offset paper's decline is temporarily interrupted [60][61][62] - Logs: The month - spread reaches a new low. There are potential supply - reduction factors, and it is recommended to use a covered call strategy for the 01 contract [63][64] - Propylene: Expected to fluctuate. The cost provides short - term support, but there is a lack of upward drive [65][66] Agricultural Products - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The short - term supply of live pigs decreases. It is recommended to use a 1 - 5 positive spread and go short on rallies [68][69] - Summary by relevant catalogs: - Live pigs: The short - term supply decreases. Pay attention to the game between farmers' sentiment and price on replenishment, and the implementation of capacity - reduction policies [68][69]

Core Points - The three major RMB exchange rate indices all declined in the week of October 17, with the CFETS index at 97.08, down 0.24% week-on-week, the BIS index at 103.07, down 0.36%, and the SDR index at 91.49, down 0.40% [1][2] Exchange Rate Trends - The US dollar index weakened overall last week, closing at 98.55, down 0.27% for the week. This weakness supported non-USD currencies, with the euro, pound, and yen all appreciating against the dollar [5] - The RMB against the USD middle rate was reported at 7.0949, with a weekly increase of 186 basis points. The onshore RMB closed at 7.1277, up 83 basis points, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.1269, down 37 basis points [5] - Year-to-date, the RMB middle rate has appreciated over 900 points, with the onshore and offshore RMB appreciating 2.40% and over 2.8% respectively [5] Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - Analysts attribute the recent RMB appreciation to both internal and external factors. External factors include the impact of the US government shutdown on economic data, increasing uncertainty in financial markets, and accelerated capital flow from the US to non-USD countries [6] - Internal factors include the release of consumer potential, industrial structure upgrades, and continuous optimization of market competition, which provide fundamental support for the RMB exchange rate [6] - The core driver of RMB appreciation is the easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which influences the RMB through direct effects on the dollar's exchange rate and interest rates [6] Economic Indicators - In September, the consumer market remained stable, with the CPI rising 0.1% month-on-month and falling 0.3% year-on-year. The core CPI rose 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of expansion [8] - China's foreign trade continued to show a steady upward trend, with total goods trade value reaching 33.61 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 4% [8] - The broad money supply (M2) was 335.38 trillion yuan at the end of September, growing 8.4% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, up 7.2% year-on-year [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan (RMB) has appreciated against the US dollar, with the central parity rate reaching a new high of 7.0995 on October 15, marking the first time it has surpassed the 7.10 threshold since late October 2024 [1][3][4] Exchange Rate Performance - On October 15, the RMB central parity rate was adjusted up by 26 basis points from the previous day's rate of 7.1021, achieving a near one-year high [3] - The onshore and offshore RMB against the US dollar both appreciated, with onshore RMB at 7.1267 (up 0.17%) and offshore RMB at 7.1301 (up 0.14%) [3] - Since the beginning of 2025, both onshore and offshore RMB have appreciated over 2%, specifically 2.37% and 2.82% respectively [3] Dollar Index Movement - The US dollar index fell below 99, reported at 98.8482 on October 15, down 0.21% for the day [4] - Despite a 1% increase in the dollar index since October 2025, it has depreciated nearly 9% overall this year [4] Economic Context - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to the decline of the US dollar and increased external market volatility, which necessitates stronger measures to stabilize the currency market [4][5] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate to support domestic economic stability and external trade [6][7] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the RMB will continue to operate in a strong position in the short term, with a focus on the dollar's performance and the PBOC's management of the central parity rate [8] - The RMB's future stability is supported by a solid macroeconomic foundation and the anticipated impact of US monetary policy adjustments [7][8]

Currency Exchange Rates - The three major RMB exchange rate indices all rose during the week of October 10, with the CFETS RMB index at 97.32, up 0.55, reaching a new high since April 2025 [1] - The BIS currency basket RMB index rose to 103.43, up 0.78, also a new high since April 2025 [1] - The SDR currency basket RMB index increased to 91.89, up 0.66, marking a new high since April 2025 [1] USD Performance - The US dollar index continued its strong performance, breaking the 99 mark and reaching a two-month high, closing at 98.82 with a cumulative increase of 1.13% [5] - Non-USD currencies, including the Japanese yen, British pound, euro, and Australian dollar, all depreciated against the USD, with the euro down 1.01% [5] RMB Exchange Rate Outlook - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1360 against the USD, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.1232, with the RMB central parity rate at 7.1048, up 54 basis points from the previous trading day [5] - Analysts expect the RMB central parity rate against the USD to stabilize between 7.10 and 7.11 in the short term, with the central bank focusing on the performance against a basket of currencies [5] RMB Appreciation Drivers - The current RMB appreciation cycle is primarily driven by the US Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, which is expected to continue until mid-next year [6] - The recent rebound of the USD is seen as a passive reaction to the weakness of the euro and yen due to political instability, with further USD strength dependent on the recovery of the US labor market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent unexpected appreciation of the US dollar has caught the foreign exchange market off guard, with the dollar index rising significantly amid global financial uncertainty [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Index Performance - The dollar index has shown strong momentum, reaching a nine-week high and approaching the 100 mark, with a peak of 99.47 on October 10 [3]. - This performance marks a reversal from the earlier trend in 2023, where the dollar index had declined over 10% in the first three quarters, making "shorting the dollar" a favored strategy among traders [3]. - The recent strength of the dollar is attributed more to the weakness of other currencies, particularly the euro, pound, and yen, rather than a robust US economic fundamental [3][4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Risks - The global uncertainty has heightened risk aversion, supporting the dollar's rise, similar to the behavior of gold during times of crisis [4]. - Analysts express caution regarding the long-term outlook for the dollar, indicating that its future performance will depend on the resolution of the US government shutdown and upcoming economic data [5]. - Potential risks include prolonged government shutdown impacts on the economy, the influence of Trump's interventions on Federal Reserve independence, and geopolitical factors affecting market sentiment [5]. Group 3: Renminbi Performance - Contrary to the strengthening dollar, the renminbi has appreciated against the dollar, with offshore renminbi rising over 200 points from October 9 to 10 [6][7]. - Factors contributing to this trend include the announcement of new policy financial tools to support growth and a strong domestic stock market attracting foreign investment [7]. - The overall market expectation for the renminbi remains stable, with a potential for continued appreciation against the dollar, suggesting a "dual bull" scenario for both the renminbi and the dollar index [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the performance data of global asset markets, including the yields of 10 - year and 2 - year government bonds of major economies, exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies, RMB exchange rates, stock indices of major economies and emerging economies, credit bond indices, as well as trading data of stock index futures and government bond futures [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance Government Bond Yields - **10 - year Government Bonds**: On October 9, 2025, the 10 - year government bond yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.139%, 4.745%, 3.524% respectively. There were different changes in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods. For example, the latest change of the US 10 - year government bond yield was - 0.012, and the one - year change was 0.353 [3] - **2 - year Government Bonds**: On the same date, the 2 - year government bond yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.630%, 4.000%, 1.994% respectively. The changes in different time periods also varied. For instance, the latest change of the US 2 - year government bond yield was 0.000, and the one - year change was 0.060 [3] Exchange Rates - **US Dollar against Emerging - Economy Currencies**: On October 9, 2025, the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, South African rand, etc. were 5.369, 17.215 respectively. The exchange rates had different percentage changes in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods. For example, the latest change of the US dollar against the Brazilian real was 0.89% [3] - **RMB Exchange Rates**: On the same date, the on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, and the middle - price were 7.130, 7.138, 7.110 respectively. They also had different percentage changes in different time periods. For example, the latest change of the on - shore RMB was 0.11% [3] Stock Indices - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: On October 9, 2025, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ, etc. had closing prices of 6735.110, 46358.420, 23024.630 respectively. The stock indices had different percentage changes in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods. For example, the latest change of the Dow Jones was 0.70% [3] - **Emerging Economies' Stock Indices**: The closing prices of the Malaysian stock index, Australian economic index, etc. were 1629.670, 9276.610 respectively on the same date. They also had different percentage changes in different time periods. For example, the latest change of the Malaysian stock index was 1.10% [3] Credit Bond Indices - On October 9, 2025, the indices of emerging - economy investment - grade credit bonds, emerging - economy high - yield credit bonds, etc. were 3517.660, 265.621 respectively. The credit bond indices had different percentage changes in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods. For example, the latest change of the emerging - economy investment - grade credit bond index was 0.05% [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3933.97, 4709.48, 3020.60 respectively, and the percentage changes were 1.32%, 1.48%, 1.06% respectively [4] - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 14.42, 11.86, 35.83 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes of 0.20, 0.11, 0.60 [4] - **Risk Premium**: The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 and German DAX were - 0.57 and 2.21 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.01 and - 0.16 [4] - **Fund Flows**: The latest values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, and CSI 300 were 198.77, 238.79, 264.69 respectively, and the 5 - day average values were - 193.18, - 141.82, 143.56 respectively [4] - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of the two - market in Shanghai and Shenzhen, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 26531.97, 8622.08, 2319.23 respectively, and the环比 changes were 4717.86, 1975.84, 569.22 respectively [4] - **Main Contract Premium or Discount**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC were - 20.28, 5.40, - 133.12 respectively, and the amplitudes were - 0.43%, 0.18%, - 1.76% respectively [4] Government Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of government bond futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.045, 105.730, 107.720, 105.610 respectively, and the percentage changes were all 0.00% [5] - The fund interest rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4069%, 1.5367%, 1.5790% respectively, and the daily changes (BP) were - 20.00, - 7.00, 0.00 respectively [5]