金融期货早评 宏观：内稳外扰下的结构机遇 【市场资讯】1）中国人民银行部署 2026 年重点工作，要求灵活高效运用降准降息等多种 货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。2）国家外汇局召开 2026 年全国外汇管理工作会议。会 议提出，2026 年出台境外放款、国内外汇贷款资金管理等政策，在全国实施跨国公司本外 币跨境资金集中运营管理政策。筑牢外汇市场"防波堤""防浪堤"，维护外汇市场稳健运行。 3）美联储理事米兰：2026 年需要降息超过 100 个基点。4）委内瑞拉局势——①油库满载 委内瑞拉和美国就向美出口石油问题进行谈判。②马杜罗执政初期，委内瑞拉向瑞士运送 了价值 52 亿美元的黄金。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】1 月 5 日至 6 日召开的 2026 年中国人民银行工作会议，正式确认 全年货币政策基调为"适度宽松"，并首次强调增量政策与存量政策的"集成效应"，标志着宏 观调控思路的系统性调整。会议明确将灵活运用降准降息等多种工具，保持流动性合理充 裕，并完善结构性货币政策，加大对科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的支持。这一部署 与"两重""两新"投资及消费提振政策形成协同，强化了对基建、工业品及下游板块的支撑力 ...

·假期将至美指走势维持稳定 ·中金：人民币汇率并未明显低估 ·CME白银隐含波动率飙升至极端高位 ·日本央行会议意见摘要暗示将进一步加息 ·交易员警惕干预风险泰铢创5月以来最大跌幅 ·美元走弱叠加国内政局稳定南非兰特有望录得2009年以来最大年度涨幅 【机构分析】 ·机构分析认为，在清淡的假期行情中，由于缺乏新的催化剂，美元兑一篮子货币汇率持稳。本周经济 日历上重要数据不多，且多个市场将因元旦休市。随着月末和年末临近，美元仓位可能出现一些调整。 美元指数现基本持平，报98.01。数据显示，美元指数年内迄今已下跌近10%。 ·中金公司最新研报指出，汇率走势可能仍与金融周期走势有一定关系。金融周期视角下，中金认为人 民币汇率未明显低估，不过中国股市表现亮眼，叠加美元走弱，人民币汇率阶段性温和回升也有其合理 性。 ·芝商所（CME）白银波动率指数（CVOL）日内一直处于80上方。该指数历史上最高为96.20，最低为 13.97，正常情况在25-35之间波动，当指数>60时，表明白银的波动率已达到极端状态。从12月26日开 始，CME白银波动率指数就突破60，并一路走高，在12月28日开盘后更是跳空上涨至80上方。当 ...

新华财经北京12月29日电 中国外汇交易中心最新计算的2025年12月26日CFETS人民币汇率指数为97.64，按周跌0.24%；BIS货币篮子 人民币汇率指数报104.42，按周跌0.14%；SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数报92.45，按周涨0.09%。 上周（12月22-26日），圣诞节当周市场流动性明显较弱，美元指数重新回到98附近盘整；人民币兑美元汇率于周一至周四持续上 涨，周五高位震荡。具体数据显示，在岸人民币兑美元累计上涨325个基点报7.0085，离岸人民币累计上涨297点报7.0045，人民币对 美元中间价累计调升192个基点报7.0358。 国内方面：中国人民银行发布《中国金融稳定报告（2025）》。其中提到，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同 经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配，持续营造适宜的货币金融环境。推动社会综合融资成本下降。坚持市场在汇率形成中的决 定性作用，保持汇率弹性，强化预期引导，防范汇率超调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 为加强人民币跨境支付系统（CIPS）业务管理，央行修订《人民币跨境支付系统业务规则》，自2026年2月1日起施行。规则指出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that the RMB exchange rate has been appreciating continuously since late November, recently reaching new highs for the year, with the offshore RMB rate surpassing 7.0, accelerating in its appreciation [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Exchange Rate Movement** - The offshore RMB exchange rate broke the 7.0 mark on December 25, reaching its highest level since September 2024, while the onshore RMB rate is also close to the 7.0 threshold, marking its highest since May 2023 [1]. - **Drivers of Appreciation** - The depreciation of the US dollar and seasonal factors are identified as direct drivers of the current appreciation of the RMB. However, monetary authorities have moderately restrained the pace of this appreciation [1]. - **Market Expectations** - Overall, the year-end appreciation of the RMB is not unexpected, although the extent of the appreciation has slightly exceeded expectations. The primary factors contributing to this rapid appreciation in the short term are the significant decline of the US dollar and the resonance of seasonal factors [1].

中国央行今日设定的人民币每日参考汇率大幅弱于市场预期，偏离幅度创下有记录以来的新高。 26日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0358，上调34点，创2024年9月30日以来新高；上一交易日中间价7.0392，上一交易日官方收盘价7.0066，上日夜盘报收 7.0058。 这一水平比彭博调查中交易员和分析师的平均预期弱了301个点。该偏离幅度不仅反映了监管层的引导意图，更是自2018年该项调查启动以来，中间价 与市场预测之间出现的最大差距。 此次中间价的设定正值离岸人民币汇率强劲反弹之际。周四，离岸人民币自2024年9月以来首次升破7.0这一心理关口。尽管目前的中间价仍强于前一交 易日，但其显著弱于市场预期的设定。 根据国联民生证券的测算，基于明年美元和中美利差的预期，明年美元兑人民币比较合理的潜在水平在6.8左右。但在短期内，随着央行明确释放出重 视"稳定"的信号，以更平衡地分摊汇率带来的宏观影响，单边快速升值的行情料将受到抑制。 Australia & New Zealand Banking Group高级策略师Zhaopeng Xing认为，此次中间价设定传达出的信号显示，中国央行不希望人民币升值过速。这与央行 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The RMB showed a significant strong performance against the US dollar at the end of 2025, with the offshore RMB exchange rate breaking through the key psychological level of 7.00, indicating a re - emergence of strong appreciation momentum [2]. - The appreciation of the RMB at the end of 2025 is driven by the resonance of internal and external factors, including the weakening of the US dollar index, the narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread, and the concentrated release of seasonal year - end settlement demand [5][6]. - Although there are expectations for the RMB to appreciate and break through 7 and enter the 6 range in 2026, there are also potential risks such as geopolitical black - swan events, the domestic economic recovery falling short of expectations, and central bank foreign exchange policy adjustments [13]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. RMB's Strong Year - End Performance: Symbolic "Breaking 7" and Its Market Characteristics - **Offshore RMB "Breaking 7": The First Time Since September 2024** - At the end of 2025, the offshore RMB exchange rate broke through 7.00 during intraday trading on December 25, the first time since September 2024, attracting high market attention and indicating enhanced market confidence in the RMB [2]. - **Market Volatility Characteristics: Strong but Low - Volatility, Contrasting with the September 2024 Market** - The implied volatility of the RMB is at a historically low level, indicating a more rational and orderly appreciation process and providing a stable foreign - exchange environment for enterprises and investors [2]. - The RMB's strong performance at the end of 2025 is fundamentally different from the 2024 market fluctuations. The latter was driven by the global yen carry - trade unwind, while the former is based on the resonance of internal and external supply - demand factors [2][5]. II. Driving Forces for RMB Appreciation: Resonance of Internal and External Factors - **External Factors: Weakening US Dollar Index and Narrowing Sino - US Interest Rate Spread** - The Fed's interest - rate cuts led to the downward trend of the US dollar index, narrowing the Sino - US interest rate spread and providing an external environment for the RMB's appreciation [6]. - The seasonal contraction of market liquidity during the Christmas holiday exacerbated the weakness of the US dollar, contributing to the year - end situation of a weak US dollar and a strong RMB [6]. - The market is generally pessimistic about the US dollar's trend in 2026, and the divergence in the Fed's expected interest - rate cuts, the change of the Fed chairman, and the "de - dollarization" trend all add uncertainty to the long - term prospects of the US dollar [7]. - **Internal Factors: Concentrated Release of Seasonal Year - End Settlement Demand** - The concentrated settlement of foreign - trade enterprises at the end of the year is a more direct and strong driving force for the RMB's appreciation, as evidenced by the fact that the RMB's appreciation amplitude is greater than the US dollar index's depreciation amplitude [8]. - China has maintained a trade surplus for seven consecutive months, and there is still a large amount of pending settlement funds being digested, which supports the RMB's appreciation [8]. III. A Cold - Blooded Reflection under the Market's Optimistic Expectations: Appreciation Space and Potential Risks - **Appreciation Space** - Huang Qifan's view that the RMB will appreciate to 6.0 in the next ten years is based on rational deductions of China's economic fundamentals, trade - structure optimization, and RMB internationalization [9]. - The RMB's actual effective exchange rate shows significant appreciation potential, as the gap between the nominal and real effective exchange rates indicates that the RMB's real purchasing power is undervalued [10]. - The narrowing Sino - US interest rate spread, the central bank's monetary - policy stance, and the increasing attractiveness of the A - share market are all factors that support the RMB's appreciation [11][12]. - **Potential Risks** - Geopolitical black - swan events, the domestic economic recovery falling short of expectations, and central bank foreign - exchange policy adjustments are potential risks for the RMB's appreciation [13].

Key Points - The article discusses the recent economic developments, including the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data [2][64][76] - The Japanese government has approved a significant economic stimulus plan amounting to 18.3 trillion yen (approximately 118 billion USD), marking a 31% increase from the previous year's budget [64] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, with non-farm payrolls adding 64,000 jobs, which was above market expectations [74] - The U.S. CPI for November was reported at 2.7% year-on-year, significantly below market expectations, influenced by data quality issues due to the government shutdown [76] Asset Classes & Overseas Events & Data Asset Classes - The Japanese yen depreciated rapidly, while COMEX silver saw a significant increase [2] - Major stock indices in developed markets showed mixed performance, with the S&P 500 up 0.1% and the Nasdaq up 0.5% [3] - The WTI crude oil price decreased by 1.6% to 56.5 USD per barrel, while COMEX gold increased by 1.2% to 4,354.0 USD per ounce [2][45] Economic Data - The U.S. unemployment rate increased to 4.6%, with non-farm payrolls adding 64,000 jobs in November, surpassing expectations [74] - The CPI for November was reported at 2.7%, significantly lower than expected, with core CPI at 2.6% [76] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, while the European Central Bank maintained its rates [2][64] Commodity Prices - Most commodity prices saw increases, with WTI crude oil down 1.6% and COMEX silver up 9.4% [45][52] - The prices of various metals, including LME copper and aluminum, also increased [52]

同日，在岸人民币、离岸人民币对美元汇率小幅走贬。截至当日9时35分，在岸人民币对美元报 7.0412，日内贬值幅度为0.01%；离岸人民币对美元报7.0341，日内贬值幅度为0.01%。 北京商报讯（记者 廖蒙）12月22日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外汇市场 人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.0572元，相较前一交易日中间价7.0550元，调贬22基点。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term, the RMB is likely to be moderately strong against the US dollar, mostly in a low - volatility range with limited trading value. Key factors include clear policy support, enhanced independent exchange - rate fluctuations, and a resonance of internal and external environments. However, potential risks such as high long - position inventories of USD/HKD and the impact of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hikes should be noted [3]. - The entry of the national team only boosts the market sentiment in the short term. The stock index is expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term, and the small and medium - cap stock indexes may face pressure [4]. - For the bond market, it is not pessimistic in the medium term. Mid - term long positions can be held, while short - term long positions can consider taking profits [5]. - In the container shipping European route, there is a bull - bear mix. The price is expected to be supported in January due to shipping companies' price - holding intentions, but factors such as weak economic data, sufficient shipping capacity, and the expected resumption of Red Sea routes may bring pressure [6]. - For platinum and palladium, the long - term bullish foundation for platinum remains. In the short term, attention should be paid to the risk of adjustment due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets. For gold and silver, be cautious about short - term callbacks, and maintain a long - term bullish view. For copper, the market sentiment is high, but the price increase did not meet expectations. For aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term; alumina is expected to be weak; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly. For zinc, it is expected to maintain a wide - range shock in the short term. For nickel and stainless steel, they had a short - term correction, and attention should be paid to the supply and demand situation. For tin, it is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips. For lithium carbonate, the short - term price may fluctuate more widely, and there are opportunities for long positions in the long term. For industrial silicon, it is in a supply - demand weak situation, and for polysilicon, the trading logic is mainly technical [9][11][13][16][19][20][22][23][24][26]. - For steel products, the price is expected to fluctuate. The price range of the rebar main contract 2605 is likely between 2900 - 3300, and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract 2605 is likely between 3000 - 3400. For iron ore, the downward space is expected to be limited. For coking coal and coke, if the upward trend continues, it may drive a new round of terminal restocking. For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, the market is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and there may be a short - term rebound [30][31][32][33][34][36]. - For pulp and offset paper, the short - term strategy is mainly to wait and see. For crude oil, the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation may drive up short - term oil prices. For LPG, the near - term is still supported. For PTA - PX, there is no obvious driver, and it will fluctuate with the cost side. For MEG - bottle chips, the short - term downward driving force is weakened, but the medium - and long - term situation is still under pressure. For methanol, it is recommended to maintain a reverse spread. For PP, the cost side provides strong support, and there may be a short - term rebound. For PE, the spot side is weak, and the supply - demand pressure is large. For pure benzene - styrene, pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. For asphalt, if the US does not directly declare war on Venezuela, the upward space is limited. For rubber, both natural and synthetic rubber are expected to maintain a wide - range shock. For urea, the 01 contract is expected to continue to fluctuate. For soda ash, it is waiting for unexpected supply changes. For glass, the near - month 01 will follow the delivery logic, and the far - month is affected by production line cold repairs. For caustic soda, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. For logs, the current price has limited trading value. For propylene, it is expected to maintain a shock pattern [38][40][42][44][45][46][47][49][50][52][53][54][55][57][58][60][61][62][63][65][67][68][70][71][72][75][76][78][79][80]. - For oilseeds, the external soybean market will focus on demand in the short term and is expected to fluctuate around the cost line in the medium term. The domestic soybean meal will continue the long - spread trend in the short term, and the medium - term supply depends on reserve releases. For oils, the short - term trend is wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to production and biodiesel information. For cotton, it is recommended to build long positions on dips, paying attention to downstream orders and hedging pressure. For sugar, the price will remain weak. For apples, the strategy is mainly to buy on dips. For red dates, the short - term downward space may be limited, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday procurement [81][82][83][84][85][86][87][88][89]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates in December, the US employment market cooled, and the UK's CPI decline increased the expectation of an interest - rate cut. Domestically, policies are "seeking progress while maintaining stability," and in November, industrial production was resilient but domestic demand was weak [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. Key information includes China's fiscal revenue growth, the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts, and the UK's CPI decline. The RMB is expected to be moderately strong in the short term, with potential risks [2][3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose collectively in the previous trading day. The entry of the national team boosted market sentiment, but the index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and small and medium - cap indexes may face pressure [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market rose on Wednesday. The market sentiment improved, and it is not pessimistic in the medium term. Mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions can consider taking profits [4][5]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The night - session prices of platinum and palladium rose to new highs this year. The price is affected by factors such as the Fed's policy, supply - demand fundamentals, and EU policies. In the long term, the bullish foundation for platinum remains, and short - term adjustment risks should be noted [9][10]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold and silver prices rose. Silver shows a long - squeeze phenomenon. The short - term focus is on callback risks, and the long - term view is bullish [11][12]. - **Copper**: The copper price rebounded. The market sentiment was high, but the increase did not meet expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 93500 - 94000, and downstream enterprises can consider buying futures on dips for hedging [13][14][15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term; alumina is expected to be weak; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly. The fundamentals of aluminum are relatively stable, alumina is in a supply - surplus situation, and cast aluminum alloy has strong support [16][17][18]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices had support at the bottom and rebounded slightly at night. In the short term, it is expected to maintain a wide - range shock, and there may be entry opportunities [19][20]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They had a short - term correction. The nickel ore market is expected to be stable and strong, and the stainless - steel market is affected by export regulations. Attention should be paid to the supply and demand situation [20][21]. - **Tin**: Tin prices were strong. It is recommended to enter the market on dips, and the short - term view is not to short [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price rose sharply. The short - term price may fluctuate more widely, and there are opportunities for long positions in the long term. Attention should be paid to supply shocks and demand declines [22][23]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak situation, and polysilicon's trading logic is mainly technical. The long - term price of industrial silicon has limited downward space, and polysilicon's fundamentals are ineffective [24][26]. - **Lead**: Lead prices were weakly volatile. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500, with strong support around 16500 [27]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices rebounded slightly but faced pressure above. After the central economic work conference, the pricing of the steel market returned to fundamentals. Supply may slow down the reduction, demand is seasonally weak, and inventory is in a de - stocking trend. The price is expected to fluctuate [28][30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: The price rebounded. After macro events, the trading logic returned to fundamentals. Supply is relatively restrained, demand is in a bottom - grinding stage, and the price is supported by coking coal [32]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal price may be affected by winter restocking, and the coke price may continue to decline. If the upward trend continues, it may drive a new round of terminal restocking [33][34]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: The market is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. Supply is likely to continue to decline, demand is expected to decrease, and inventory is at a high level. There may be a short - term rebound [35][36]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp prices fluctuated, and offset paper prices were weakly volatile. The Crofton pulp mill's shutdown was postponed, and the pulp port inventory is still high. The short - term strategy for both is to wait and see [38][40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices stopped falling and rebounded. The US - Venezuela tension may drive up short - term oil prices, and attention should be paid to the development of the situation [42][43][44]. - **LPG**: The near - term is still supported. The supply increased slightly, demand remained stable, and attention should be paid to marginal changes [45][46]. - **PTA - PX**: There is no obvious driver, and it will fluctuate with the cost side. PX supply is expected to be high, PTA supply and demand are in a tight - balance situation in December, and the polyester demand is expected to decline seasonally in December [47][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The short - term downward driving force is weakened, but the medium - and long - term situation is still under pressure. Supply has shown initial signs of support, and demand is expected to decline seasonally in December [50][52]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to maintain a reverse spread. Factors such as commodity trends and unloading problems have affected the price, and the unloading problem will be resolved in the future [53][54]. - **PP**: The cost side provides strong support, and there may be a short - term rebound. Supply may be relieved in January, and demand has some support [55][57]. - **PE**: The spot side is weak, and the supply - demand pressure is large. Supply is increasing, and demand is decreasing, especially in the agricultural film sector [58][60]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The supply of pure benzene is slightly decreasing, and the demand is weak. The supply of styrene has increased, and the demand is stable [60][61]. - **Asphalt**: If the US does not directly declare war on Venezuela, the upward space is limited. The supply and demand have changed slightly, and the US - Venezuela situation may affect the supply of heavy oil [62]. - **Rubber**: Both natural and synthetic rubber are expected to maintain a wide - range shock. Natural rubber is affected by supply - side disturbances and weak demand. Synthetic rubber has limited fundamental improvement, and the upward space is restricted [63][65][67]. - **Urea**: The 01 contract is expected to continue to fluctuate. High supply pressures the price, but export policies relieve the pressure, and the inventory is in a de - stocking trend [68][70]. - **Soda Ash, Glass, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is waiting for unexpected supply changes, glass's near - month 01 will follow the delivery logic, and the far - month is affected by production line cold repairs. Caustic soda prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to supply pressure and weakening demand [71][72][75]. - **Logs**: The current price has limited trading value. It is in a position - shifting market, with the inventory decreasing and the spot price falling [76][78]. - **Propylene**: It is expected to maintain a shock pattern. The supply is relatively loose, demand is stable, and it is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [79][80]. Agricultural Products - **Oilseeds**: The external soybean market will focus on demand in the short term and is expected to fluctuate around the cost line in the medium term. The domestic soybean meal will continue the long - spread trend in the short term, and the medium - term supply depends on reserve releases. The rapeseed meal is in a supply - demand weak situation [81][82]. - **Oils**: The short - term trend is wide - range shock. Palm oil is affected by supply pressure, soybean oil is affected by soybean auctions, and rapeseed oil is affected by global supply. Attention should be paid to production and biodiesel information [82][83]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to build long positions on dips. The downstream shows resilience, but short - term pressure exists. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and hedging pressure [84]. - **Sugar**: The price will remain weak. Global sugar production and trade data affect the price, such as India's high production and Brazil's high exports [85][86]. - **Apples**: The strategy is mainly to buy on dips. Consumption is sluggish, and inventory is slowly decreasing [87][88]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term downward space may be limited. New - season production is slightly reduced, and new - product supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to pre - holiday procurement [89].

本报讯（记者 潘福达）人民币汇率市场迎来强势行情。昨天，人民币对美元中间价调升29个基点，报 7.0573，创2024年10月9日以来最高，前一交易日中间价报7.0602。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，近期人民币对美元汇率连续上行，有两个直接原因：首先是12月11 日美联储降息前后，美元指数持续下行跌破100，带动包括人民币在内的非美货币普遍升值；其次是年 底企业结汇需求增加，带动人民币季节性走强，近期人民币持续走强后，前期累积的结汇需求可能在加 速释放。 人民币汇率自11月下旬以来持续上行，接连创下年内新高。中信证券研究团队表示，2026年美元指数偏 弱运行的趋势或将延续，预计人民币汇率有望温和升值。 12月16日，更多反映国际投资者预期的离岸人民币对美元盘中升破7.04关口，在岸人民币对美元升破 7.05关口，双双创下2024年10月8日以来新高。12月17日，离岸人民币汇率和在岸人民币汇率维持高 位，离岸人民币盘中一度升至7.03185，创下2024年10月4日以来新高；在岸人民币对美元汇率盘中最高 升至7.0411，创下2024年10月8日以来新高。 ...