国 债 期 货 交 易 数 据 国债期货 T00 TF00 T01 TF01 收盘价 108.615 105.830 108.490 105.870 涨跌（%） 0.01% 0.02% 0.06% 0.04% 资金利率 R001 R007 SHIBOR-3M 1.3503% 1.4809% 1.5600% 日度变化(BP) -12.00 1.00 0.00 货 币 市 场 国内货币市场 | 大类资产早报 | | --- | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/08/08 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/08/07 | 4.251 | 4.546 | 3.295 | 2.629 | 3.422 | 3.200 | 0.237 | 3.279 | | 最新变化 | 0.022 | 0.021 | - ...

Currency Exchange Rates - The three major RMB exchange rate indices all declined in the week of July 25, with the CFETS RMB index at 95.71, down 0.43% week-on-week; the BIS currency basket RMB index at 101.31, down 0.49%; and the SDR currency basket RMB index at 90.55, down 0.35% [1][2]. Market Trends - Market risk appetite strengthened significantly last week, leading to a 0.8% decline in the US dollar, which closed at 97.67. Non-USD currencies strengthened across the board, with the euro rising approximately 1% due to optimistic sentiments from US-EU negotiations and the European Central Bank's hawkish stance. The Japanese yen also gained 0.77% due to positive trade negotiation outcomes [5]. - Both onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates strengthened, with the onshore RMB closing at 7.1680 against the USD, up 86 points (0.12%) for the week, and the offshore RMB at 7.1679, up 134 points (0.18%) [5]. RMB Appreciation - Since April 14, the RMB has experienced a concentrated appreciation, moving from a midpoint exchange rate of 7.21 to 7.14 against the USD, an appreciation of nearly 1%. This appreciation occurred despite two rounds of dollar index rebounds during the same period [5]. - In the first seven months of 2025, both onshore and offshore RMB against the USD only saw slight depreciation in April, with appreciation trends in other months, resulting in a year-to-date increase of 2% for both [5]. Economic Indicators - The recent macroeconomic reports indicate that the domestic economy has shown stable and strong performance in the first half of the year, providing significant support for the RMB exchange rate. This is a key reason for the RMB's stronger performance amid the dollar's decline [6]. - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported a continuous recovery in net foreign exchange settlement, indicating improved supply and demand in the foreign exchange market, which may support the RMB exchange rate [6]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current RMB appreciation may be driven by changes in risk premiums, with future trends dependent on the US-China trade situation, counter-cyclical policies, and supply-demand dynamics [6][7]. - If the Federal Reserve significantly lowers interest rates next year, the potential demand for foreign exchange settlement could further support RMB appreciation [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall trend of the stock index is positive, but it may experience a phased adjustment. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting this week [3]. - In the RMB exchange rate market, investors can use options to hedge tail risks. Focus on the progress of China - US trade consultations in the next week [2]. - For the container shipping industry, the SCFI European line has rebounded, but the near - term contracts may have a short - term correction, and the overall may fluctuate slightly downward [5]. - In the precious metals market, focus on the Fed FOMC meeting and important US economic data this week. The mid - to long - term trend of gold and silver may be bullish, while the short - term volatility is intense [5]. - For base metals, copper prices may decline slightly; aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term; zinc is in a high - level shock; nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate within a certain range; tin prices may decline slightly; lead is mainly in a shock state [8][10][12][13][15][21]. - In the energy and chemical industry, crude oil is in a narrow - range shock adjustment stage; PX - PTA can be considered to expand the processing fee at low prices; for other energy and chemical products, pay attention to policy changes and market fundamentals [29][30][33]. - In the black metal market, the over - heated sentiment in the steel market may lead to a short - term correction, but the rise may not end; the contradiction in the iron ore market is accumulating; the coal - coke market may return to rationality; for silicon iron and silicon manganese, pay attention to risks [23][24][26][27]. - For agricultural products, the market game for live pigs has intensified [50]. Summaries by Related Catalogs RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Review**: On Friday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1679 at 16:30, down 132 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1680 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.1419, down 34 basis points [2]. - **Important Information**: Trump said the possibility of reaching an agreement with the EU was 50%, and most trade agreements would be reached before August. The Russian central bank cut the benchmark interest rate from 20% to 18% [2]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's independence is being challenged. Investors can use options to hedge tail risks. Focus on China - US trade consultations in the next week [2]. Stock Index - **Market Review**: On Friday, the stock index showed mixed trends, with the large - cap index falling and the small - and medium - cap index rising. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 573.69 billion yuan [3]. - **Important Information**: China's industrial enterprise profits in June decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the equipment manufacturing industry played a prominent supporting role. The State Council executive meeting deployed measures for gradually promoting free pre - school education [3]. - **Core Logic**: The stock index may experience a phased adjustment, but the overall trend is positive. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting this week [3]. Container Shipping - **Market Review**: On Friday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) contracts fluctuated after a sharp decline at the opening. As of the close, the prices of EC contracts showed mixed trends [4]. - **Important Information**: The freight quotes of Maersk and ONE for shipping from Shanghai to Rotterdam showed different changes [4]. - **Core Logic**: The SCFI European line has rebounded, but the near - term contracts may have a short - term correction, and the overall may fluctuate slightly downward [5]. Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - **Market Review**: Last week, the precious metals market showed a reverse V - shaped trend. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased sharply, and there was a large inflow of funds into US gold and silver ETFs at the beginning of the week, but the price reversed on Wednesday [5]. - **Important Information**: The US - Japan and US - EU trade agreements were close to being reached, and the domestic anti - involution policy led to a general rise in commodities and the stock market [5]. - **Core Logic**: Focus on the Fed FOMC meeting and important US economic data this week. The mid - to long - term trend may be bullish, while the short - term volatility is intense [5]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Review**: The main futures contract of Shanghai copper rose and then fell during the week, and the inventory showed different trends in different markets [8]. - **Important Information**: Teck Resources lowered the production forecast of its Chilean copper mine due to tailings storage problems [8]. - **Core Logic**: Copper prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution heat fades [9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The price of Shanghai aluminum showed a slight increase, and the trading volume and positions changed. The price of alumina and cast aluminum alloy also had corresponding changes [9]. - **Important Information**: The anti - involution policy affected the market sentiment, and the exchange issued a position limit notice [9][10]. - **Core Logic**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, considering the influence of macro events and fundamentals [10]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc fell slightly, and the trading volume and positions decreased [12]. - **Important Information**: The "anti - involution" sentiment affected the market [12]. - **Core Logic**: Zinc is in a high - level shock. The supply may gradually shift from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak. Appropriate short - selling at high prices is recommended [12]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a strong trend during the week but回调 on Friday night. The price of stainless steel also showed an upward trend during the week [13]. - **Important Information**: The anti - involution policy and relevant news affected the market, and the supply of nickel ore was expected to be loose [14]. - **Core Logic**: Nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate within the range of [118,000 - 126,000] yuan and [12,500 - 13,100] yuan respectively [15]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main futures contract of Shanghai tin rose and then fell during the week, and the inventory was stable [15]. - **Important Information**: The anti - involution policy affected the price [15]. - **Core Logic**: Tin prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution heat fades [16]. Lead - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai lead rose slightly, and the trading volume and positions increased [21]. - **Important Information**: The production of a refinery in Anhui recovered, and a large - scale recycled lead refinery in Inner Mongolia was expected to produce lead next week [21]. - **Core Logic**: Lead is mainly in a shock state, affected by the supply - demand relationship and market sentiment [22]. Energy and Chemical Industry Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Speculative position reduction and inventory increase suppressed oil prices, and the prices of US and Brent crude oil futures fell [29]. - **Important Information**: Trump announced that the US and the EU reached a trade agreement, and the Houthi armed forces upgraded the maritime blockade [29]. - **Core Logic**: The crude oil market is in a narrow - range shock adjustment stage. Pay attention to the results of important macro meetings this week [30]. PTA - PX - **Market Review**: PX - PTA was generally strong under the influence of commodity sentiment and polyester demand improvement [30]. - **Important Information**: PX Tianjin Petrochemical carried out maintenance, and there were rumors of PTA plant maintenance in August [30][31]. - **Core Logic**: The PX - TA industry chain has limited fundamental drivers. Consider expanding the processing fee at low prices [32]. Other Energy and Chemical Products - **Market Review and Core Logic**: Each product has different market performances and core logics, mainly affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and market sentiments. For example, MEG - bottle chips are recommended to wait and see; methanol is mainly driven by macro factors; PP and PE are affected by macro emotions and fundamentals; PVC is recommended to wait and see in the short term; BZ and styrene are affected by macro emotions and fundamentals; fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil have different supply - demand and inventory situations; asphalt follows the cost - end shock; urea is expected to fluctuate weakly; glass and soda ash are affected by anti - involution expectations and fundamentals; pulp is driven by macro emotions;烧碱 focuses on near - month warehouse receipts [32][33][35][37][38][39][41][42][43][44][45][47][48][50]. Black Metal Market Steel - **Market Review**: On Friday night, coking coal hit the daily limit down, and black metal varieties followed suit [23]. - **Important Information**: The profits of industrial enterprises in the first half of the year were announced, and there were price adjustment and position limit news in the coking coal market [23]. - **Core Logic**: The over - heated sentiment in the steel market may lead to a short - term correction, but the rise may not end. Pay attention to the actual demand and tariff policies [23]. Iron Ore - **Market Review**: The price of iron ore has corrected, while coking coal has maintained a strong upward trend [23]. - **Important Information**: The global iron ore shipping volume is at a seasonal high, and the dry bulk freight has increased [24]. - **Core Logic**: The fundamentals of iron ore are okay, but the room for improvement is limited. The contradiction in the market is accumulating, and it is recommended to wait and see [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Review**: The price of coking coal and coke fluctuated greatly this week, and the coking coal futures limit on Friday night caused the price to fall [24][26]. - **Important Information**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke have changed, and the inventory situation is different [25]. - **Core Logic**: The coal - coke market may return to rationality, and pay attention to the Politburo meeting and China - US trade negotiations [26]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - **Market Review**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rose last week, and they were affected by the anti - involution meeting and the decline of coking coal futures on Friday night [27]. - **Important Information**: The supply and demand, inventory, and profit of silicon iron and silicon manganese have changed [27]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term risk of chasing high is high, and pay attention to the implementation of policies and risk control [28]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Review**: The futures price of live pigs showed a slight increase [50]. - **Important Information**: No specific important information is provided. - **Core Logic**: The market game for live pigs has intensified [50].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views Financial Futures - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to remain stable and move forward (weaker) this week. The Fed's independence is under "stress test", and the overall weak trend is expected to continue. The PBOC will likely adhere to the regulatory philosophy of "bottom - line thinking + contingency", and the probability of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate falling below 7 is increasing [2] - The stock index is expected to continue to be strong as market sentiment remains optimistic. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes are relatively strong, and the trading volume of the two markets remains at a high level. The news is dull, and the long - position is recommended to hold and wait [3] - The freight rate of container shipping (European line) futures may continue to be volatile. The prices of mainstream shipping companies in August are still higher than those in July, and the reduction of US - EU tariffs is expected to boost trade, but the near - month contracts may fall again [5] Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver are under pressure in the short term as equity assets perform well. In the medium - to - long - term, they may be bullish, but there is short - term adjustment pressure. The callback buying strategy is recommended [6][8] Copper - Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term but may fall in the medium term. The rise of the non - ferrous metal sector is due to demand rather than supply, but there are hidden risks in the medium - term rise [10] Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. Macro - level factors boost sentiment, and low inventory supports prices [12] - Alumina may fluctuate in the short term. The current supply is in surplus, but the spot is tight, and it may fall sharply when there is negative news [13][14] - Cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate at a high level. The cost is supported, but the demand is in the off - season, and there are opportunities for arbitrage [14] Zinc - Zinc is expected to fluctuate widely and may fall in the long term. The supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak in the off - season [15] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to continue to fluctuate. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the demand for stainless steel is weak [16] Tin - Tin has strengthened slightly, and there are opportunities to sell on rallies. The supply of Burmese ore is about to increase, and the upward pressure on prices is greater than the support [18] Carbonate Lithium - The futures market of carbonate lithium is active, but risks should be noted. The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is stable, and the cost is supported [19] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures are volatile, and investors should pay attention to position risks. The market sentiment is strong, but there are risks on both the supply and demand sides [20][21] Lead - Lead is expected to fluctuate before the demand improves. The supply is tight, and the demand is approaching the peak season, but the spot trading is in a wait - and - see state [22] Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to continue to rise. The "anti - involution" policy boosts market sentiment, and the supply - demand contradiction of steel has not accumulated, and the profit of steel mills is good [24] Iron Ore - Iron ore is expected to be strong but with limited upward momentum. The "anti - involution" policy has little impact on the supply side, and the current valuation is high [26][27] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke are easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. The "anti - involution" policy in the coal industry drives the price increase, and the inventory of the upstream decreases. In the long term, the price increase may affect the downstream [29][30] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to be optimistic in the short term. The profit of ferroalloys is repaired, and the demand from steel mills is supported, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant [31][32] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil is in a narrow - range shock adjustment phase. The demand in the peak season provides support, but the support is weakening. Next week's macro - level meetings may bring new guidance [36] PTA - PX - PX - PTA is expected to be strong in the short term. The current fundamental driving force is limited, and the "anti - involution" policy boosts sentiment. The follow - up should focus on the Politburo meeting [39] MEG - Bottle Chip - MEG is expected to be strong. The supply side has many unexpected situations, and the "anti - involution" policy boosts sentiment. The bottle chip price fluctuates with the cost [42] Methanol - It is recommended to wait and see for methanol. The market is affected by macro - level factors, and the inventory is accumulating in the off - season. The focus is on whether the coastal MTO will shut down for maintenance [44] PP - PP is driven up by macro - level sentiment but faces resistance. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season, and the follow - up should focus on the demand recovery and policy progress [46] PE - PE is driven up by macro - level factors, and the spot is weak. The current inventory is accumulating, but the supply increment is limited, and the demand is expected to recover in the peak season [48] PVC - PVC is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment. The current data is poor, but the "anti - involution" value is high. It is recommended to avoid risks when the production limit is unclear [50] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The supply side fluctuates slightly, the demand side improves, and the inventory increases. The market is affected by the macro - level sentiment before the end - of - month meeting [51] Styrene - Styrene is affected by macro - level disturbances. The supply side decreases slightly, the demand side is weak, and the inventory increases. It is recommended to avoid short - selling in the short term and focus on the end - of - month meetings [52] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is boosted by crude oil. The supply is tight, the demand is improving, and there are opportunities for the FU09 - 01 spread [53][54] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil is boosted by crude oil. The supply is low, the demand is slightly improved, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [54] Asphalt - Asphalt fluctuates with the cost. The supply - demand is stable, the inventory is being reduced, and the demand is expected to improve in the peak season. It is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment in the short term [55] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash and glass remain strong. The "anti - involution" policy has an uncertain impact on soda ash, and the supply is stable, but the demand is weak. Glass is in a weak balance, and the inventory is still high [56][58] Log - Logs are expected to have low - volatility shocks. The fundamentals change little, the funds are reducing positions, and the valuation is slightly high [59] Pulp - Pulp is mainly driven by the macro - level. After breaking through and retesting, it can be cautiously chased to go long [60] Caustic Soda - Caustic soda rises with the market. The short - term contradiction is limited, and the supply pressure may increase in the long term. The market is affected by the old - device issue [62] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Live pigs are recommended to be shorted on rallies. The supply is high, and the demand is weak in the short term, but there is pressure - holding sentiment in the market [63] Oilseeds - It is recommended to go long on the far - month contracts of oilseeds at low prices. The external market of soybeans is volatile, and the internal market is affected by the policy. The supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient, and the demand for rapeseed meal is affected by the situation of India and other countries [64][65] Corn and Starch - Corn and starch are expected to fluctuate. There is no obvious positive news, and the growth of new - crop corn should be monitored [66] Cotton - Cotton is expected to be strong in the short term. The low inventory supports the price, but the terminal demand is weak in the off - season. The follow - up should focus on the import quota policy and inventory reduction [68] Sugar - Sugar maintains an internal - strong and external - weak pattern. The international sugar price rises due to improved demand, and the domestic sugar price is stronger than the external market [69] Eggs - Eggs are recommended to be in an anti - spread position. The long - term egg production capacity is loose, and the short - term price is strong [71] Summaries by Directory Financial Futures RMB Exchange Rate - Yesterday, the on - shore RMB/USD closed at 7.1547, up 63 basis points, and the central parity rate was 7.1385, up 29 basis points. The Fed's independence is under test, and the PBOC will balance exchange - rate flexibility and risk prevention [1][2] Stock Index - Yesterday, the stock index rose collectively. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes reached new highs this year. The news is dull, and the market sentiment is optimistic, so it is expected to be strong [3] Container Shipping - The prices of container shipping (European line) futures fluctuated widely yesterday. The spot price of some shipping companies increased in August, and the reduction of US - EU tariffs is expected to boost the market [3][5] Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fell on Thursday. The Fed's "renovation gate" and the European Central Bank's interest - rate decision affected the market. The long - term trend may be bullish, but there is short - term adjustment pressure [6] Copper - The Shanghai copper index fluctuated at a high level on Thursday. The development of emerging industries and the "anti - involution" policy may affect demand. Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term but may fall in the medium term [9][10] Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum prices fluctuated on Thursday. The "anti - involution" policy has limited impact on the fundamentals but boosts sentiment. The inventory is low, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [12] - Alumina prices rose slightly. The supply is in surplus, but the spot is tight. The price may be affected by macro - level sentiment and inventory [13][14] - The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. The cost is supported, but the demand is in the off - season, and there are arbitrage opportunities [14] Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract closed slightly higher on Thursday. The supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to short on rallies [15] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The prices of nickel and stainless steel rose slightly on Thursday. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. The follow - up should focus on the support of nickel - iron [16] Tin - The Shanghai tin index rose slightly on Thursday. The fundamentals are stable. The supply of Burmese ore is about to increase, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [18] Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium futures limit - up on Thursday. The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is stable, and the cost is supported. The market is active, but risks should be noted [19] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The industrial silicon futures rose on Thursday, and the polysilicon futures fluctuated at a high level. The spot price of industrial silicon is strong, and the polysilicon price is stable. The market sentiment is strong, but risks should be noted [20][21] Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract closed slightly higher on Thursday. The supply is tight, and the demand is approaching the peak season, but the spot trading is in a wait - and - see state. It is expected to fluctuate [22] Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a strong - shock state. The "anti - involution" policy boosts sentiment, and the supply - demand contradiction of steel has not accumulated, and the profit of steel mills is good [24] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is affected by the "anti - involution" policy. The supply side has little impact, and the current valuation is high. It is expected to be strong but with limited upward momentum [26][27] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices rose sharply. The "anti - involution" policy in the coal industry drives the price increase, and the inventory of the upstream decreases. The short - term is easy to rise, and the long - term should consider the downstream [29][30] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to be optimistic in the short term. The profit of ferroalloys is repaired, and the demand from steel mills is supported, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant [31][32] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rose slightly on Thursday. The US government may authorize Venezuelan oil partners, and the demand in the peak season provides support. It is in a narrow - range shock adjustment phase [34][36] PTA - PX - PX - PTA prices rose slightly. The PX load decreased slightly, and the PTA supply is stable. The demand for polyester is weak, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term [37][38][39] MEG - Bottle Chip - MEG prices are volatile. The supply side has many unexpected situations, and the demand is weak. The bottle chip price fluctuates with the cost [40][42] Methanol - Methanol prices are affected by macro - level factors. The inventory is accumulating in the off - season, and the focus is on whether the coastal MTO will shut down for maintenance [43][44] PP - PP prices rose. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. The macro - level sentiment drives the price up, but there is resistance [45][46] PE - PE prices rose. The supply increment is limited, and the demand is expected to recover in the peak season. The current inventory is accumulating, and the spot is weak [47][48] PVC - PVC prices rose sharply. The "anti - involution" sentiment drives the price up, and the current data is poor, but the "anti - involution" value is high [49][50] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene prices rose. The supply side fluctuates slightly, the demand side improves, and the inventory increases. The market is affected by the macro - level sentiment [51] Styrene - Styrene prices rose. The supply side decreases slightly, the demand side is weak, and the inventory increases. The short - term is affected by macro - level disturbances [52] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices rose. The supply is tight, the demand is improving, and there are opportunities for the FU09 - 01 spread [53][54] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil prices rose. The supply is low, the demand is slightly improved, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [54] Asphalt - Asphalt prices fluctuated. The supply - demand is stable, the inventory is being reduced, and the demand is expected to improve in the peak season. The short - term is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment [54][55] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash prices rose. The "anti - involution" policy has an uncertain impact, the supply is stable, and the demand is weak. The inventory is high [56][57] - Glass prices rose. The supply is stable, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory is high. The short - term is strong, and the follow - up should focus on the policy and inventory [58] Log - Log prices fell slightly. The fundamentals change little, the funds are reducing positions, and the valuation is slightly high. It is expected to have low - volatility shocks [59] Pulp - Pulp prices rose. The spot price is stable, and the futures price is mainly driven by the macro - level. After breaking through and retesting, it can be cautiously chased to go long [60] Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices rose. The short - term contradiction is limited, and the supply pressure may increase in the long term. The market is affected by the old - device issue [62] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Live pig prices fell. The supply is high, and the demand is weak in the short term, but there is pressure - holding sentiment in the market. It is recommended to be short on rallies [63] Oilseeds - The external market of soybeans is volatile, and the internal market is affected by the policy. The supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient, and the demand for rapeseed meal is affected by the situation

Core Points - The central exchange rate of the RMB against various currencies shows a mixed trend, with the USD/RMB rate increasing, indicating a depreciation of the RMB [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate Changes - The USD/RMB rate is reported at 7.1419, an increase of 34 points, indicating a depreciation of the RMB [1] - The EUR/RMB rate is reported at 8.4001, a decrease of 76 points [1] - The HKD/RMB rate is reported at 0.90983, an increase of 4.2 points [1] - The GBP/RMB rate is reported at 9.6565, a decrease of 438 points [1] - The AUD/RMB rate is reported at 4.7158, an increase of 6 points [1] - The CAD/RMB rate is reported at 5.2407, a decrease of 101 points [1] - The JPY/RMB rate is reported at 4.8621, a decrease of 210 points [1] - The RMB/RUB rate is reported at 11.1195, an increase of 1539 points [1] - The NZD/RMB rate is reported at 4.3177, a decrease of 27 points [1] - The RMB/MYR rate is reported at 0.5897, a decrease of 17.3 points [1] - The CHF/RMB rate is reported at 8.9906, a decrease of 277 points [1] - The SGD/RMB rate is reported at 5.5949, a decrease of 30 points [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Report - The RMB exchange rate is likely to remain stable in the short term, with an expected operating range of 7.15 - 7.20 this week [1]. - The stock index is expected to continue to strengthen as various sentiment indicators are positive [2]. - Treasury bond trading desks are advised to temporarily stop losses and wait for the details of the anti - involution policy to be fully implemented after important meetings. There may be a configuration opportunity for the bond market after the policy is implemented and emotions are released [2][3][4]. - The shipping index (European line) futures prices may continue to oscillate and decline slightly. Attention should be paid to the actions of other shipping companies and the changes in the spot quotes of European lines [4][5]. - Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term but may face risks in the medium term. Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, alumina to run strongly, and casting aluminum alloy to oscillate at a high level. Zinc is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and decline in the long term. Nickel and stainless steel are affected by macro - emotions, and the trend needs to pay attention to the fermentation of macro - emotions. Tin prices are expected to follow the overall trend of the non - ferrous sector in the short term, and it is recommended to hedge inventory at an appropriate time. Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are affected by coal price disturbances and macro - emotions, and there are opportunities for long positions and positive spreads. Lead is expected to oscillate [6][7][8][9][10][11][13][14][15][16][17][19][21][22]. - The steel and hot - rolled coil market is expected to remain strong before the Politburo meeting in July, but the risk of a pullback due to the weakening of emotions should be vigilant. Iron ore is driven by expectations, and its price is expected to fluctuate more strongly near the meeting. Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of 9 - 1 reverse spreads. Silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to be optimistic in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32]. - Crude oil is in an oscillating and weakening pattern, and attention should be paid to the risk of a price decline. PX - PTA and MEG - bottle chips are driven by the "anti - involution" policy and are expected to run strongly in the short term. Methanol is recommended to be observed. PP and PE are affected by the cost side and macro - policies, with resistance to price increases and a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern respectively. PVC is affected by the "anti - involution" emotion and is recommended to avoid risks. Fuel oil is in a weak adjustment, low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure and should be observed, asphalt is adjusted weakly following the cost side, and urea is expected to oscillate strongly [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53]. - Soda ash supply is strong and demand is weak, and glass is expected to remain strong. Logs have a relatively independent market, and pulp may break through and can be cautiously chased long if it breaks through effectively. Caustic soda is at a high level, and attention should be paid to the change in downstream demand [54][55][57][59][60]. - For agricultural products, live pigs are recommended to be shorted at high prices and appropriate reverse spreads can be arranged. Oilseeds are recommended to be long - allocated in the far - month contracts. Corn and starch are expected to oscillate narrowly. Cotton is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to inventory changes. Sugar is under short - term pressure. Apples are expected to oscillate in the short term [62][63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures RMB Exchange Rate - Yesterday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1756 at 16:30, up 12 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1695 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.1460, up 62 basis points [1]. - The current market has no obvious expectation of RMB appreciation or depreciation, and the foreign exchange market transactions are rational and orderly. The external environment shows that the rapid depreciation stage of the US dollar index is likely to have ended, but the overall weak trend is expected to continue. Domestically, the central bank is likely to continue to adhere to the regulatory philosophy of "bottom - line thinking + discretionary decision - making" [1]. Stock Index - Yesterday, the stock index continued to strengthen, and the trading volume of the two markets increased by 1930.58 billion yuan. The futures index increased in volume. Affected by the anti - involution policy and the start of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, the water conservancy, steel, and building materials sectors led the rise [2]. - With positive sentiment indicators and relatively calm news, the stock index is expected to continue to strengthen [2]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures opened strongly, oscillated narrowly, then dived and closed down. The short - end was relatively strong, and the liquidity improved, with the capital interest rate returning to the key level of 1.3% [2]. - With the strong performance of risk assets and the decline of treasury bond futures prices, trading desks are advised to temporarily stop losses and wait for the details of the anti - involution policy. After the policy is implemented and emotions are released, there may be a configuration opportunity for the bond market [2][3][4]. Container Shipping - Yesterday, the prices of container shipping index (European line) futures contracts oscillated downward. Affected by commodity emotions, they rebounded slightly and then continued to decline [4]. - On July 31, the total quote of Maersk's 20GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam increased by $10 compared with the previous value, and the 40GP increased by $20. On August 7, the opening quotes of 20GP and 40GP decreased compared with the previous week [4]. - The futures price is expected to continue to oscillate and decline slightly, and attention should be paid to the actions of other shipping companies and the changes in the spot quotes of European lines [4][5]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Shanghai Copper Index maintained a high - level oscillation on Tuesday. The anti - involution policy has an impact on the non - ferrous metal sector. Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term, but there are hidden risks in the medium term [6][7]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The price of Shanghai Aluminum increased by 0.75% on the previous trading day, and the price of alumina increased by 6.07%. The price of casting aluminum alloy increased by 0.90%. Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, alumina to run strongly, and casting aluminum alloy to oscillate at a high level [8][9][10][11]. - **Zinc**: The main contract of Shanghai Zinc increased by 0.01% on the previous trading day. The supply of zinc is expected to change from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short term and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [11][13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel increased by 1.52% during the day, and the main contract of stainless steel increased by 0.47%. The current market is mainly affected by macro - emotions, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly [15]. - **Tin**: The Shanghai Tin Index showed a V - shaped trend on Tuesday. Tin prices are affected by the anti - involution policy, but the fundamentals remain stable. It is recommended to hedge inventory at an appropriate time [16][17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Tuesday, the futures price of lithium carbonate oscillated strongly. The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain strengthened, and the cost support was enhanced. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [17][18]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: On Tuesday, the futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon rose by the daily limit. Affected by coal price disturbances and macro - emotions, there are opportunities for long positions and positive spreads [19][20]. - **Lead**: The main contract of Shanghai Lead decreased by 0.02% on the previous trading day. The supply of lead is in a tight - balance state, and it is difficult to synchronize with the anti - involution policy. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [21][22]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The coking coal market led to a rise in the steel market. The market is expected to remain strong before the Politburo meeting in July, but the risk of a pullback due to the weakening of emotions should be vigilant [24][25]. - **Iron Ore**: Affected by news and expectations, the price of iron ore followed the rise of coking coal. The fundamentals have not changed much, and the price is expected to fluctuate more strongly near the meeting [26][27]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke markets rose by the daily limit. The production of domestic coking coal mines is gradually recovering, and the import is expected to increase. The coking industry is under cost pressure, and the demand for coke is supported in the short term. The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [28][29][30]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The profits of silicon iron and silicon manganese have improved, and the production enterprises have a certain driving force to resume production. However, the growth space is limited due to weak downstream demand. The market is expected to be optimistic in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [31][32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The prices of New York and London crude oil futures decreased, and the SC crude oil main contract also closed down at night. The market is in an oscillating and weakening pattern, and attention should be paid to the risk of a price decline [33][34]. - **PX - PTA**: The PX - PTA industry chain has limited fundamental driving forces. The macro "anti - involution" policy has an uncertain impact, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term [35][36][37]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The supply of ethylene glycol has frequent accidents, and the demand is weak. Affected by the "anti - involution" emotion, the overall trend is strong. The bottle chips' price fluctuates with the cost side [38][39][40]. - **Methanol**: The methanol 09 contract closed at 2450 on Tuesday. The port inventory continued to accumulate. It is recommended to observe due to strong macro - emotions [41][42]. - **PP**: The PP 2509 contract increased. The supply is under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. Although the trading volume has increased, the price increase faces resistance [43][44]. - **PE**: The PE 2509 contract increased. The supply has a high level of maintenance, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [45][46]. - **PVC**: The PVC price increased sharply, driven by the "anti - involution" emotion and the expectation of eliminating outdated chemical devices. Although the fundamentals are poor, the anti - involution value is high. It is recommended to avoid risks [47][48][49]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market is in a weak adjustment. The supply is still tight, and the demand has increased in some areas. The Singapore and Malaysian floating - storage inventories are at a high level [50]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure. The supply has decreased overseas, and the demand has slightly improved. It is recommended to observe in the short term [51]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt market is adjusted weakly following the cost side. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory structure is being adjusted, and the market is expected to improve in the peak season [51][52]. - **Urea**: The urea 09 contract closed at 1810 on Tuesday. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. However, the agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will be under pressure in the second half of the year [53]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The soda ash supply is strong and demand is weak, and the glass market is expected to remain strong. The "anti - involution" policy has an impact on the market, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the policy [54][55]. Others - **Logs**: The main contract of logs closed at 838, with a decrease of 4 and a reduction of 2264 lots. The market is relatively independent, and the spot price is stable. The current price is slightly overvalued [57][58]. - **Pulp**: The main contract of pulp closed at 5368, with an increase of 40. Affected by the macro - atmosphere, the price has risen. If it can break through effectively, it can be cautiously chased long [59]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda 2509 contract closed at 2658, with an increase of 3.46%. The inventory has increased slightly, and the market is at a high level. Attention should be paid to the change in downstream demand [60]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The LH2509 contract closed at 14380, with a daily increase of 0.1%. The national average price of live pigs decreased slightly. The supply is still high, and it is recommended to short at high prices and arrange appropriate reverse spreads [62][63]. Oilseeds - The external market of US soybeans oscillated after a rebound, and the domestic near - month contracts were strong, and the far - month contracts also followed the rise. The supply of imported soybeans is relatively abundant, and the demand for domestic soybean meal has neutral support. The supply of rapeseed meal has a short - term rhythm problem, and attention should be paid to the supply recovery of the rapeseed sector [64]. - It is recommended to long - allocate far - month contracts [65][66]. Corn and Starch - The CBOT corn futures closed down, and the Dalian corn starch oscillated. The prices of corn and starch in different regions were stable. The market is expected to oscillate narrowly, and attention should be paid to the auction成交 rate [66]. Cotton - The ICE cotton futures rose slightly, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures rose nearly 0.5% overnight. The new cotton in Xinjiang is growing well, and the domestic cotton inventory is low, which supports the cotton price. However, the terminal demand is weak in the off - season [67]. - The cotton market is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the import quota policy and inventory changes [67][68]. Sugar - The ICE raw sugar futures closed down, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and the short - term sugar price is under pressure [69][70]. Apples - The apple futures price increased slightly. The spot price of apples in different regions is stable. Affected by seasonal fruits, the sales volume is limited. The inventory is at a low level in the past five years. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [71].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The interbank foreign exchange market shows a mixed trend in the Renminbi exchange rates against various currencies, indicating fluctuations in the currency's value. Currency Exchange Rate Changes - The USD/CNY rate is reported at 7.1522, an increase of 24 points, indicating a depreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar [1] - The EUR/CNY rate is at 8.3228, up by 77 points, reflecting a stronger Euro against the Renminbi [1] - The HKD/CNY rate is 0.91125, up by 3.3 points, showing a slight appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar [1] - The GBP/CNY rate is reported at 9.6022, down by 127 points, indicating a depreciation of the British pound against the Renminbi [1] - The AUD/CNY rate is at 4.6595, up by 68 points, suggesting a stronger Australian dollar [1] - The CAD/CNY rate is reported at 5.2152, an increase of 48 points, indicating a stronger Canadian dollar [1] - The JPY/CNY rate is at 4.8255, down by 7 points, reflecting a weaker Japanese yen [1] - The CNY/RUB rate is reported at 10.9649, up by 832 points, indicating a significant appreciation of the Renminbi against the Russian ruble [1] - The NZD/CNY rate is at 4.2594, up by 12 points, suggesting a stronger New Zealand dollar [1] - The CNY/MYR rate is reported at 0.59231, down by 9.6 points, indicating a weaker Renminbi against the Malaysian ringgit [1] - The CHF/CNY rate is at 8.9310, up by 135 points, reflecting a stronger Swiss franc [1] - The SGD/CNY rate is reported at 5.5717, up by 25 points, indicating a stronger Singapore dollar [1]

Group 1 - The US dollar index has recently shown a strong rebound, reaching a multi-day increase, with a cumulative rise of over 2% as of July 17, supported by higher-than-expected US CPI data, which reduces the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September [1][5] - The Chinese yuan has shown mixed performance against the dollar, with the central parity rate reaching its strongest level since November at 7.1461, while the offshore yuan depreciated over 200 points recently [1][7] - The expectation of a weaker yuan is influenced by the uncertainty surrounding tariffs set to take effect on August 1, with the People's Bank of China showing a willingness to stabilize the yuan [1][7] Group 2 - The recent strengthening of the dollar is attributed to reduced expectations for a Fed rate cut, with the probability of a cut in September now at 53.5%, down from 59.3% [5][6] - The inflation data for June indicates that tariffs are beginning to have an impact, with significant price increases in categories like home goods and appliances, which are targeted by tariffs [6] - Analysts suggest that the dollar index is likely to continue its upward trend, potentially reaching 99, with a breakthrough at this level indicating a move towards 100 [6][10] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs remains high, with potential implications for the US economy and the dollar's strength, as increased tariff revenues could embolden further tariff actions by the Trump administration [8][9] - Concerns persist regarding the sustainability of fiscal policies, with expectations that the costs of new fiscal stimulus plans may outweigh their economic benefits, potentially impacting the dollar's performance [9][10] - The ongoing increase in tariff revenues is not expected to sufficiently address the worsening fiscal deficit, leading to potential volatility in long-term US Treasury yields [10]

Report Information - Report Title: Global Asset Market Performance Report - Report Date: July 11, 2025 - Research Team: Research Center Macro Team [2] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 10, 2025, yields in the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.351%, 4.595%, 3.397% respectively. Yields in Japan, Brazil, China were 3.873%, 6.548%, 1.660% respectively. - Latest changes ranged from 0.003% (US) to 0.123% (France). Weekly changes ranged from - 0.010% (US) to 0.241% (Spain). Monthly changes ranged from -0.495% (Italy) to 0.348% (US). Annual changes ranged from -0.870% (Japan) to 0.398% (Germany) [3] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 10, 2025, yields in China (1Y), US, UK were 3.900%, 3.853%, 1.887% respectively. - Latest changes ranged from -0.022% (US) to 0.120% (China). Weekly changes ranged from 0.008% (Korea) to 0.119% (Australia). Monthly changes ranged from -0.042% (Italy) to 0.150% (China). Annual changes ranged from -1.374% (Japan) to 0.398% (Germany) [3] US Dollar to Major Emerging - Economy Currency Exchange Rates - On July 10, 2025, exchange rates against the US dollar for Brazil, Russia, South Africa were 5.532, 108.000, 17.747 respectively. - Latest changes ranged from -0.73% (Brazil) to 0.00% (Russia). Weekly changes ranged from -0.14% (Korea) to 2.27% (Brazil). Monthly changes ranged from -0.16% (South Africa) to 1.23% (Korea). Annual changes ranged from -11.28% (Thailand) to 0.00% (Russia) [3] RMB Exchange Rates - On July 10, 2025, on - shore RMB was 7.178, off - shore RMB was 7.179, and the mid - price was 7.151. - Latest changes ranged from -0.05% (off - shore RMB) to 0.07% (12 - month NDF). Weekly changes ranged from -0.02% (mid - price) to 0.13% (12 - month NDF). Monthly changes ranged from -0.41% (mid - price) to 0.09% (12 - month NDF). Annual changes ranged from -1.75% (off - shore RMB) to 0.31% (mid - price) [3] Major Economies' Stock Indexes - On July 10, 2025, the Dow Jones was 6280.460, S&P 500 was 44650.640, and NASDAQ was 20630.660. - Latest changes ranged from -0.79% (Spanish index) to 1.23% (UK index). Weekly changes ranged from -1.99% (Mexican index) to 2.18% (German DAX). Monthly changes ranged from -1.88% (Mexican index) to 4.92% (NASDAQ). Annual changes ranged from 4.83% (French CAC) to 34.64% (German DAX) [3] Emerging Economies' Stock Indexes - On July 10, 2025, the Malaysian index was 1536.520, Australian index was 8826.717, and another index was 1231.260. - Latest changes ranged from 0.28% to 0.56%. Weekly changes ranged from -0.81% to -0.08%. Monthly changes ranged from 0.35% to 2.37%. Annual changes ranged from -3.84% to 14.03% [3] Credit Bond Indexes - Latest changes ranged from -0.11% (Emerging economies high - yield credit bond index) to 0.09% (US high - yield credit bond index). - Weekly changes ranged from -0.16% (Emerging economies high - yield credit bond index) to 0.33% (US high - yield credit bond index). - Monthly changes ranged from 0.15% (Emerging economies high - yield credit bond index) to 1.53% (Eurozone high - yield credit bond index). - Annual changes ranged from 6.41% (Emerging economies high - yield credit bond index) to 15.38% (Eurozone high - yield credit bond index) [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - On July 10, 2025, the A - share index closed at 3509.68, with a 0.48% increase. The CSI 300 closed at 4010.02, with a 0.47% increase [4] Valuation - PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 13.34, with a 0.07% increase. PE (TTM) of S&P 500 was 26.71, with a 0.08% increase [4] Risk Premium - The risk premium of CSI 300 was 3.70, with no change. The risk premium of S&P 500 was -0.61, with a -0.03% change [4] Fund Flow - The latest A - share fund flow was -256.13, and the 5 - day average was -339.44. The latest CSI 300 fund flow was 120.60, and the 5 - day average was 33.10 [4] Trading Volume - The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 14941.48, with a -110.28 change. The latest trading volume of CSI 300 was 3478.37, with a 424.38 change [4] Main Contract Premium/Discount - The basis of IF was -38.02, with a -0.95% discount. The basis of IH was -16.53, with a -0.60% discount [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data Closing Prices and Changes - On July 10, 2025, the closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.845, 105.990, 108.890, 106.095 respectively, with changes of 0.03%, 0.02%, 0.03%, 0.01% respectively [5] Funding Rates - R001 was 1.3870%, with a -11.00 BP change. R007 was 1.5208%, with a 2.00 BP change. SHIBOR - 3M was 1.5590%, with no change [5]

Core Points - The central bank's foreign exchange market has reported the RMB exchange rate against various currencies, indicating fluctuations in the value of the RMB [1] Exchange Rate Summary - USD/RMB is reported at 7.1534, an increase (RMB depreciation) of 28 points [1] - EUR/RMB is reported at 8.4110, a decrease of 182 points [1] - HKD/RMB is reported at 0.91128, an increase of 3.6 points [1] - GBP/RMB is reported at 9.7654, a decrease of 34 points [1] - AUD/RMB is reported at 4.6637, a decrease of 226 points [1] - CAD/RMB is reported at 5.2462, a decrease of 148 points [1] - 100 JPY/RMB is reported at 4.9114, a decrease of 431 points [1] - RMB/RUB is reported at 10.9654, a decrease of 263 points [1] - NZD/RMB is reported at 4.3091, a decrease of 213 points [1] - RMB/MYR is reported at 0.59163, an increase of 23.9 points [1] - CHF/RMB is reported at 8.9924, a decrease of 186 points [1] - SGD/RMB is reported at 5.6029, a decrease of 138 points [1]