◎记者 范子萌 美元最近的"意外"升值，打了外汇市场一个措手不及。 本周，美元指数连续四个交易日走高，强势站上99关口，创下逾两个月新高。 "美国政府依然停摆，但意外的是，美元却迎来了反弹。"嘉盛集团资深分析师陈杰瑞对上海证券报记者 感叹。 在近期全球金融市场不确定性增强的背景下，分析人士称，美元正因其传统避险属性而重获市场青睐。 不过，美元能否进一步上涨，依然取决于美国政府停摆问题何时得以解决，以及未来经济数据的表现。 美元指数不降反升： 避险属性凸显 属被动走强 全球范围内的不确定性激发了避险情绪，支撑美元持续攀升。浙商证券宏观研究团队发布报告认为，美 元指数反弹的逻辑类似黄金，主要缘于美国政府"关门"带来的阶段性避险偏好。 长期看美元走势： 上行空间有限 风险依然存在 尽管美元指数当前转为强势，但多位业内人士对美元指数长期前景并不乐观。专家表示，美元能否进一 步上涨，取决于美国政府停摆问题的解决，以及未来经济数据的表现。 招商银行资金营运中心外汇分析师丁木桥发布报告认为，美元后续自身的风险依然存在：一是美国政 府"关门"拖延时间越长，对经济的负面冲击也将越深，数据公布的时间也越迟，联储决策失误的风险也 ...

| 10 m 22 111 | Un m A 11 | | --- | --- | | SOURCE POINT | SOURCE POINT | | 三十四代 | | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/10/10 国 债 期 货 交 易 数 据 国债期货 T00 TF00 T01 TF01 收盘价 108.045 105.730 107.720 105.610 涨跌（%） 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 资金利率 R001 R007 SHIBOR-3M 1.4069% 1.5367% 1.5790% 日度变化(BP) -20.00 -7.00 0.00 货 币 市 场 | 最新变化 | 0.05% | 0.21% | 0.09% | -0.25% | -0.34% | 0.82% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一周变化 | 0.18% | 0.31% | 0.11% | -0.36% | -0.43% | -0.44% | | 一月变化 | 1.41% | 0.77% | 1.26% | 0.66% | 0.33% | 1.18% ...

晨会纪要（2025/10/09） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.10.09） 宏观及策略研究 外汇系列：人民币汇率制度背景和分析框架——宏观经济专题 基金研究 固定收益研究 弱势期关注韧性，把握调整后的配置窗口——信用债四季度投资策略展望 权益市场主要指数全部上涨，公募基金规模再创新高——公募基金周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 纪 1、海内外汇率制度变迁 IMF 将各国汇率制度分为四大类：硬盯住、软盯住、浮动汇率和其他。纵观历史，金本位和布雷顿森林体 系时期的"黄金-美元"本位，均是以黄金类实物资产为"锚"，多数国家汇率制度也主要是采取硬盯住；在 此之后，国家信用主导国际货币体系，美元逐渐成为锚定物，各国汇率制度也随之开始向更加灵活的软盯 住变动。然而，随后的发展并未如预期那样向着更加灵活的浮动汇率制度变动，反而是逐渐向软盯住集中。 可见全球汇率制度的选择除了货币政策独立性以外，还面临着贸易发展、金 ...

昨晚美联储多位官员释放鹰派言论，美元指数下跌，现货黄金大涨并突破 3740 美元关口，最高至 3748.53 美元 / 盎司，再创历史新高，最大涨幅超 60 美 元，最终报收 3746.67 美元 / 盎司，上涨 1.67%；现货白银刷新 2011 年 5 月以来新高，最终报 44.047 美元 / 盎司，上涨 2.38%。 今日（周二）亚市现货黄金开盘 3745.92 美元 / 盎司，最低 3736.72 美元 / 盎司，早盘金价短线冲高并刷新历史高位至 3758.92 美元 / 盎司回落，截止香港第 一金 PPLI 分析师发稿前，金价回撤在 3742 美元附近整理。 受美联储官员言论影响，昨晚美元指数先涨后跌，结束日线三连涨，最终报收 97.31，收跌 0.36%。美债收益率有所走高，2 年期美债收益率上升 2.3 个基 点，最终报收 3.605%；10 年期美债收益率上升 1.1 个基点，最终报收 4.150%。 昨晚美布二油低位反弹回升，WTI 原油最终报收 61.94 美元 / 桶，收于平盘附近；布伦特原油最终报收 65.99 美元 / 桶，下跌 0.02%。美国天然气 CFD 价格 最终报收 3. ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year and the first in nine months [1] - This rate cut is more preventive in nature, aimed at addressing economic slowdown rather than a deep recession, which historically benefits risk assets more than recessionary rate cuts [1] Group 2: Impact on Various Asset Classes - Historical data shows that during past rate cut cycles, various asset classes have reacted significantly, with equities, bonds, and commodities showing varied performance [2] - U.S. Treasury bonds are expected to be the biggest beneficiaries of the rate cut, with a nearly 100% success rate in price appreciation within six months of a rate cut [3] - The short-term interest rates are more sensitive to the Fed's policy changes, while long-term rates are influenced by inflation expectations and term premiums [6] Group 3: Stock Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market is likely to experience short-term downward pressure but long-term benefits as liquidity improves and corporate financing costs decrease [9] - Historical trends indicate that after preventive rate cuts, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have shown significant gains, with the S&P 500 rising by 15% and Nasdaq by 20% during the 2019 rate cut cycle [9] Group 4: A-Shares and H-Shares - A-shares are expected to benefit from liquidity easing and increased risk appetite, particularly in technology and consumer sectors [10] - H-shares are more sensitive to external liquidity conditions, with both preventive and recessionary rate cuts leading to overall price increases [12] Group 5: Gold and Commodities - Gold prices typically rise during rate cut cycles, with average increases of 10%-15% due to lower opportunity costs and increased demand amid geopolitical risks [16][15] - Oil prices are primarily driven by supply and demand dynamics, with limited correlation to rate cuts, although demand recovery can lead to price increases in a soft landing scenario [25] Group 6: Currency Impacts - The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken in the short term following the rate cut, with historical declines of 6%-8% during preventive rate cuts [21] - The Chinese yuan may experience reduced depreciation pressure due to narrowed interest rate differentials, with expectations of appreciation following past rate cuts [28]

Currency and Economic Outlook - Citic Securities predicts that the RMB exchange rate may require more catalysts to break the 7 level, despite a recent appreciation driven by external and internal factors [1] - Goldman Sachs expects an acceleration in trading activity in France despite political turmoil, indicating that France remains an attractive investment destination [2] - MUFG analysts believe that the current political situation in France is unlikely to disrupt the upward trend of the euro [3] - Deutsche Bank reports that the UK 30-year government bond yield has reached its highest level since 1998, raising concerns about public finance sustainability [3] Inflation and Interest Rates - CICC forecasts that the US inflation rate may continue to rise, impacting the bond market dynamics [4] - Huatai Securities emphasizes that a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve could drive down real interest rates in the US, benefiting gold investments [5] - The analysis suggests that unless the US economy returns to a high-growth, low-inflation scenario, the current gold buying strategy may persist [5] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights that typical gold companies currently have favorable valuations and are expected to benefit significantly from rising gold prices and increased production [5] - The narrowing gold-silver ratio is anticipated to occur after a period of monetary easing, suggesting potential investment opportunities in silver if the economy stabilizes post-rate cuts [5]

记者丨江佩霞 编辑丨陈思颖 当地时间8月28日，美股三大指数集体收涨，道指、标普500指数再创收盘新高，大型科技股多 数上涨，量子计算概念股领涨。离岸人民币汇率大涨超300点。 28日晚间离岸人民币汇率一度涨至7.1173元，为2024年11月6日以来首次突破7.12元，创近10 个月以来新高 ，值得注意的是，人民币升值的幅度远超美元贬值幅度。 调控政策，人民币汇率就有望重返6时代，中国资产吸引力大概率提升。 一图看懂人民币汇率双向波动背后的影响→ 据21财经·南财快讯记者观察，29日离岸人民币报价逼近2024年11月5日纽约尾盘最终报价 7.1017元、当年10月1日顶部7.0012元、当年9月30日顶部6.9735元、以及当年9月26日顶 部6.9713元。 8月29日，在岸人民币对美元夜盘收盘报7.1306，较上一交易日夜盘收涨194个基点。 消息面上，8月28日，美股盘前公布数据显示，美国二季度实际GDP年化季环比上调至3.3%， 高于此前报告的3%。美国上周首申失业金人数小幅下降至22.9万，续请人数降至195.4万，双 双低于预期。 美联储理事沃勒表示， 支持美联储9月会议降息25个基点，预计未来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China announced the exchange rates of the Renminbi (RMB) against various currencies on August 28, 2023, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market rates for investors and analysts [1]. Exchange Rate Summary - The exchange rate for 100 US dollars is 710.63 RMB [1] - The exchange rate for 100 euros is 829.15 RMB [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Japanese yen is 4.8394 RMB [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Hong Kong dollars is 91.267 RMB [1] - The exchange rate for 100 British pounds is 961.55 RMB [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Australian dollars is 463.74 RMB [1] - The exchange rate for 100 New Zealand dollars is 417.69 RMB [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Singapore dollars is 554.21 RMB [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Swiss francs is 888.03 RMB [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Canadian dollars is 516.82 RMB [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Macau patacas is 112.92 RMB [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Malaysian ringgits is 59.34 RMB [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Russian rubles is 1124.08 RMB [1] - The exchange rate for 100 South African rand is 248.56 RMB [1] - The exchange rate for 100 South Korean won is 19514 RMB [1] - The exchange rate for 100 UAE dirhams is 51.552 RMB [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Saudi riyals is 52.671 RMB [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Hungarian forints is 4778.75 RMB [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Polish zlotys is 51.443 RMB [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Danish krone is 90.05 RMB [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Swedish krona is 133.77 RMB [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Norwegian krone is 141.45 RMB [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Turkish lira is 576.061 RMB [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Mexican pesos is 262.02 RMB [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Thai baht is 454.33 RMB [1]

Core Viewpoint - In July, the US dollar experienced a significant rebound due to the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and accelerated tariff negotiations with major trading partners, while the Chinese yuan faced downward pressure despite some support from the central bank's actions [1][2]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - The average daily trading volume in the interbank foreign exchange market reached $206.43 billion in July, maintaining above $200 billion for four consecutive months, with a year-on-year increase of 9.38% [2]. - The onshore yuan fluctuated within a narrow range of 7.1550 to 7.1860 at the beginning of July, followed by a slight appreciation, but ultimately depreciated by 0.38% to close at 7.1930 by the end of the month [2]. - The CFETS yuan index against a basket of currencies rose to 96.76, reflecting a 1.48% appreciation compared to the previous month [2]. Offshore and Onshore Yuan Discrepancy - In July, the offshore yuan shifted from a premium to a discount against the onshore yuan, with the average daily discrepancy being -14 basis points, indicating minimal deviation between the two rates [3]. - The first half of July saw a balanced buying and selling force in the spot market, but by the second half, there was a notable increase in demand for buying yuan, leading to an overall net buying position for the month [3]. Interest Rate Differentials - In July, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose from approximately 4.25% at the beginning of the month to a peak of 4.5% in mid-July, before settling at 4.37% by the end of the month [4][5]. - The interest rate differential between Chinese and US bonds widened slightly, ending the month at -271 basis points [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may weaken the dollar and support RMB strength [1][4][5]. Exchange Rate Movements - On August 25, the RMB central parity rate was significantly raised by 160 basis points to 7.1161 against the US dollar, marking the highest level since November 2024 [2][3]. - Both onshore and offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar, with the onshore rate reaching a high of 7.1478 during the day [2][3]. - As of 18:00 on August 25, the onshore RMB was at 7.1563, appreciating by 0.12%, while the offshore RMB was at 7.159, appreciating by 0.17% [2]. External Influences - The fluctuations in the foreign exchange market were largely influenced by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent comments suggesting possible interest rate cuts in the coming months, which were interpreted as dovish signals [4][5]. - The dollar index experienced a significant drop of 0.94% on August 22, the largest single-day decline since April 2025, and has seen a cumulative decline of over 2% in August [4]. Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts suggest that if the Federal Reserve proceeds with interest rate cuts, the dollar may weaken further, alleviating external pressures on the RMB and potentially leading to increased capital inflows into Chinese securities [5][6]. - The RMB's appreciation trend is expected to continue, with September being a critical observation window for potential further strengthening [6][7]. Policy and Market Stability - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the importance of market forces in determining exchange rates and aims to maintain stability in the RMB at a reasonable and balanced level [7]. - Future developments in domestic growth policies and Sino-US trade negotiations are crucial factors to monitor for their impact on RMB exchange rates [7].