Core Points - The U.S. government has suspended its investigation into China's shipbuilding industry, leading China to reciprocate by pausing fees on U.S. vessels and related countermeasures, indicating a de-escalation of tensions [1][2] - The U.S. Trade Representative's office announced a one-year suspension of the 301 investigation into China's dominance in maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors starting November 10 [1] - China’s Ministry of Transport announced the suspension of special port fees for U.S. ships and investigations into the impact on the shipping and shipbuilding industries, aligning with the U.S. decision [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce also announced a one-year suspension of countermeasures against five U.S. subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean, effective from October 10 [1] Industry Impact - The U.S. had previously imposed port service fees on Chinese-owned or operated vessels, which could have resulted in losses amounting to billions of dollars [2] - The U.S. Trade Representative's office noted that the suspension of port fees would lower transportation costs and prevent business disruptions, facilitating negotiations on the investigation [2] - The U.S. plans to maintain negotiations with Beijing while fostering historic cooperation with South Korea and Japan to revitalize the U.S. shipbuilding industry [3] - Hanwha Ocean expressed optimism regarding improved relations with Chinese partners following the suspension of sanctions on its U.S. subsidiaries [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Polyester Sector - In the short - term, the supply - demand situation has no significant improvement, the rebound momentum of the polyester sector is limited, and the oil price affects the market fluctuation rhythm. It is necessary to pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting results [30]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is expected to increase, the demand peak season is not significant, and the polyester sector is under overall pressure [30]. Methanol Sector - In the short - term, with the continuation of high supply, unresolved high port inventory, and weakened main demand support, methanol may continue to decline in a volatile manner [49]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the inflection point of port inventory is the core point of the market. If the medium - to - long - term signals are positive, methanol may rebound [49]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Sector Macro and Crude Oil Information - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% on October 30. The outlook for December's rate action is uncertain, and market risk appetite has weakened [5]. - China and the US reached a joint arrangement on economic and trade issues, which helps improve oil demand expectations [5]. - Russia's crude oil exports in October are expected to remain at about 2.33 million barrels per day, alleviating concerns about supply disruptions [5]. - As of the week ending October 24, US crude oil production increased, and commercial crude and refined product inventories decreased. OPEC+ may continue to increase production [6]. Futures and Spot Prices - WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 2.40% week - on - week, while PX601, TA601, PF512, and PR601 futures prices increased [8]. - The spot prices of PX, PTA, and polyester products showed different changes, with PX and PTA prices rising [8]. Supply and Demand of Each Product - **PX**: Domestic PX capacity utilization and production increased this week. Next week, a 700,000 - tonne device of Dalian Fujia will restart, and supply is expected to continue to increase [15]. - **PTA**: Domestic PTA supply increased this week. Although some devices reduced production, new devices are about to be put into operation, and supply is expected to increase slightly next week [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic supply decreased this week, but is expected to increase next week. Port inventory increased slightly this week and may continue to accumulate next week [18]. - **Polyester End**: The average weekly polyester start - up rate increased slightly by 0.03 percentage points [19]. - **Polyester Inventory**: Short - fiber inventory increased slightly, while long - fiber inventory continued to decline [22]. - **Terminal**: As of October 31, the start - up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms increased, the order days of weaving enterprises increased, and the inventory of grey cloth decreased [28]. Methanol Sector Price Trends - The futures price of MA2601 decreased by 4.05% week - on - week, and the spot prices of methanol and its downstream products showed different changes [33]. Cost and Profit - The profits of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol production continued to decline, while the profit of natural gas - based production was basically flat. The downstream gross profit continued to decline, and MTO remained in a deep loss state [39]. Supply - As of October 30, the domestic methanol start - up rate was 86.7%, and production increased. This week, the number of returning devices was greater than that of overhauled devices. Next week, some devices are planned to resume production, and there are no new overhaul plans [42]. Demand - Affected by profit squeeze, the overall demand start - up load continued to weaken. The MTO start - up load decreased slightly, and there is still an overhaul expectation in the next period. The traditional downstream was generally flat [45]. Inventory - As of October 29, port inventory decreased slightly, while inland inventory increased. Port inventory remained stable at a high level, and inland inventory accumulated but was still at a low level compared to previous years [48].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pure benzene market has a loose supply - demand situation. Although the macro - sentiment improvement due to Sino - US easing may briefly boost market confidence, the weak oil prices and insufficient demand still suppress the market [2] - The styrene market is oscillating weakly. The supply is abundant, the demand is cautious, and the cost support is weak. However, the macro - improvement from Sino - US talks may support the short - term market, but the supply - demand pattern remains to be improved [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Fundamental Aspects - **Prices**: On October 24, the styrene main contract closed down 0.09% at 6,539 yuan/ton with a basis of 6 (±34 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.57% at 5,572 yuan/ton [2] - **Costs**: On October 24, Brent crude oil closed at $61.8/barrel (+$3.3/barrel), WTI crude oil at $66.0/barrel (+$3.4/barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,545 yuan/ton (-15 yuan/ton) [2] - **Inventory**: Styrene port inventory was 20.3 tons (+0.6 tons), a 3.1% increase; pure benzene port inventory was 9.9 tons (+0.9 tons), a 10% increase [2] - **Supply**: The styrene production and capacity utilization decreased slightly. The weekly styrene output was 32.7 tons (-1.2 tons), and the factory capacity utilization was 69.3% (-2.6%) [2] - **Demand**: The overall demand of downstream 3S industries recovered. The EPS capacity utilization was 62.0% (-0.5%), ABS 72.8% (-0.3%), and PS 53.8% (+0%) [2] Views - **Pure Benzene**: The crude oil market supply - demand is loose, OPEC+ plans to increase production in November, and the global oil consumption enters the off - season. The supply of pure benzene is high, the downstream demand support is limited, and the inventory situation is complex. The Sino - US easing may boost market confidence [2] - **Styrene**: The styrene market is weakly oscillating. The supply is abundant, the demand is cautious, and the cost support is weak. The Sino - US talks may improve the macro - situation and support the short - term market [3] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring Prices - Styrene futures main contract price decreased by 0.09% from 6,545 yuan/ton on October 23 to 6,539 yuan/ton on October 24; the spot price increased by 0.29% from 6,830 yuan/ton to 6,850 yuan/ton [5] - Pure benzene futures main contract price decreased by 0.57% from 5,604 yuan/ton to 5,572 yuan/ton; the East China spot price decreased by 0.27% from 5,560 yuan/ton to 5,545 yuan/ton [5] Production and Inventory - China's styrene production decreased by 3.66% from 33.9 tons on October 17 to 32.7 tons on October 24; pure benzene production decreased by 2.72% from 43.8 tons to 42.6 tons [6] - Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased by 3.05% from 19.7 tons to 20.3 tons; factory inventory increased by 1.47% from 19.3 tons to 19.6 tons [6] - Pure benzene port inventory nationwide increased by 10% from 9.0 tons to 9.9 tons [6] Capacity Utilization - The capacity utilization of styrene in pure benzene downstream decreased by 2.63% from 71.9% to 69.3%; that of caprolactam decreased by 3.52% from 92.4% to 88.9% [7] - Among styrene downstream industries, the EPS capacity utilization decreased by 0.54% from 62.5% to 62.0%, ABS by 0.30% from 73.1% to 72.8%, and PS remained unchanged at 53.8% [7] 3. Industry News - Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs on China is cancelled; China is expected to resume "substantial" purchases of US soybeans; Beijing will postpone the implementation of rare - earth export controls by one year and re - examine the plan [8] - US inflation data in September were all lower than expected, enhancing the prospect of the Fed's interest - rate cut [8] - The Fed will hold an interest - rate meeting at dawn on October 30 [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, SM import pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, aniline weekly capacity utilization, caprolactam weekly capacity utilization, and phenol weekly capacity utilization [9][13][16]

Group 1: Market Reaction to Trade News - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, with London gold falling over 1% to below $4100 and COMEX gold also declining by more than 1% [1] - The highest price for London gold was recorded at $4111.555, while the lowest was $4063.350 [2] - COMEX gold saw a decrease of $47.5, or -1.15%, with a closing price of $4090.3 [3] Group 2: Trade Relations Developments - Canadian Prime Minister Carney expressed readiness to continue trade negotiations with the U.S. amid easing trade tensions [5] - U.S. President Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on Canada due to perceived negative advertising related to tariffs [5] - Brazilian President Lula reported constructive talks with President Trump regarding tariffs and sanctions, with immediate discussions planned [5] Group 3: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% [6] - Investors are closely monitoring the Fed's language post-meeting for signals on future rate adjustments [6] - Despite a consensus on the October rate cut, there are internal disagreements within the Fed regarding the future path of rate cuts due to ongoing inflation risks [6]

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures prices have shown signs of rebound after five consecutive days of decline, with the main contract rising by 0.65% to 773.5 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] Market Inventory and Shipping Data - China's total iron ore inventory at 47 ports reached 150.65 million tons, an increase of 3.40 million tons compared to the previous week [2] - During the period from October 13 to October 19, iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased by 1.17 million tons, reaching a six-month low [2] - Global iron ore shipments totaled 33.34 million tons, an increase of 1.26 million tons week-on-week, with Australia and Brazil contributing 28.25 million tons, up by 0.94 million tons [2] Future Market Outlook - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Futures, iron ore prices are currently weak, but steel mills maintain production due to strong demand driven by profits, with iron water output recovering to previous levels [3] - Galaxy Futures suggests that while domestic steel demand may recover in Q4, the market is currently affected by weakening terminal demand, leading to increased iron ore inventory and overall supply [3] - Nanhua Futures indicates that although short-term price valuations are low due to widening basis, there is insufficient upward momentum, with future market direction dependent on policy signals and potential domestic demand stimulus [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On October 19, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month declined. IF dropped by 1.55%, IH by 1.16%, IC by 2.06%, and IM by 2.22%. The total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, and IC decreased, while that of IM increased. [1][2] - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. There are positive signals in Sino - US trade relations, and the Chinese government has carried out relevant policy deployments. [6] - In September, the number of newly opened margin trading accounts in the market reached a record high this year. The margin trading balance in the A - share market increased significantly in the third quarter. The A - share market closed lower overall, with most sectors falling. [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Index Futures Data**: The closing prices of various index futures contracts declined. For example, the closing price of IF2510 was 4539.6, down 1.55%; IH2510 was 2983, down 1.16%; IC2510 was 7064, down 2.06%; IM2510 was 7230.2, down 2.22%. The trading volume and positions of different contracts changed. For instance, the trading volume of IF2510 decreased by 11149, and its position decreased by 23420. [1] - **Trading Volume and Position Changes**: The total trading volume of IF increased by 15958 lots, IH by 12901 lots, IC by 13852 lots, and IM by 41160 lots. The total positions of IF decreased by 9025 lots, IH by 5962 lots, IC by 6464 lots, and IM increased by 8741 lots. [2] - **Basis**: The basis of different index futures contracts varied. For example, the basis of IF2510 was 25.37, IH2510 was 15.23, IC2510 was 47.93, and IM2510 was 44.72. [1] - **Positions of the Top 20 Members**: The long and short positions of the top 20 members in different index futures contracts changed. For example, in IF2510, the long positions decreased by 13612, and the short positions decreased by 13264. [5] 2. Trend Strength and Important Drivers - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1, indicating a neutral view. [6] - **Important Drivers**: There were positive signals in Sino - US trade relations, including a video call between Chinese and US economic and trade leaders and statements from US President Trump. The Chinese government carried out relevant policy deployments, such as the State Council's research on reducing logistics costs and other matters. [6] 3. Margin Trading and A - share Market Conditions - **Margin Trading**: In September, the number of newly opened margin trading accounts in the market was 205,400, a record high this year. The margin trading balance in the A - share market increased from 1.85 trillion yuan at the end of the second quarter to 2.39 trillion yuan at the end of the third quarter, a single - quarter increase of 29.19%. [7] - **A - share Market Closing**: The A - share market closed lower overall, with the ChiNext Index leading the decline. Most sectors fell, and only a few concepts such as cross - strait integration, Hainan, and duty - free shops rose. The trading volume was 1.95 trillion yuan, the same as the previous day. [7]

Group 1 - The US stock market saw all three major indices rise, with the Dow Jones up by 0.52%, the Nasdaq up by 0.52%, and the S&P 500 up by 0.53% [1] - Popular tech stocks had mixed performances, with Tesla rising over 2% and Apple nearly 2%, while Oracle fell nearly 7% and AMD and ARM dropped over 3% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index decreased by 0.14%, with mixed results among Chinese concept stocks; Alibaba and JD.com rose over 1%, while Kingsoft fell over 4% [1] Group 2 - In the first three quarters of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 163,876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [2] - The revenue from stamp duty was 132,664 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.7%, while non-stamp duty revenue decreased by 0.4% to 31,212 billion yuan [2] - Specifically, the stamp duty from securities transactions was 144.8 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 103.4% [3] Group 3 - The FTSE China A50 Index experienced a rapid rise, with a maximum intraday increase of over 1%, attributed to easing trade tensions between major countries [4][5] - Market sentiment improved due to the perceived reduction in trade friction and a slowdown in risk sentiment regarding US regional banks [5]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with both domestic and international copper prices rising by over 2% due to ongoing concerns about tight copper supply and a stabilization in prices following a reduction in trade tensions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Domestic and international copper prices opened high and continued to rise, with current gains exceeding 2% [1] - The market remains concerned about the tightness in the copper supply chain, which is contributing to the price increase [1] Group 2: Trade Relations Impact - The easing of trade tensions has led to a quick stabilization and rebound in copper prices [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for soybean meal is "sideways, pay attention to China-US economic and trade talks" [1] - The investment rating for soybean No.1 is "sideways, pay attention to technical aspects and market sentiment" [2] Group 2: Core Views - Last week (09.08 - 09.12), US soybean futures prices mainly rose due to the upcoming China-US economic and trade talks in Spain and the easing sentiment of trade frictions. The September USDA supply and demand report had little impact, and the focus of US soybeans remained on "China-US economic and trade talks" and "export demand" [2] - Last week, domestic soybean meal futures prices slightly rebounded, and soybean No.1 futures prices fluctuated. The stable import cost of Brazilian soybeans and the rebound of US soybeans drove the soybean meal futures market to rise slightly. The decline of soybean meal futures prices on the Friday night session was expected to be a trade reaction to the "easing of China-US trade frictions". The soybean No.1 futures market was mainly based on technical trading, and the fundamental marginal changes were small [2] - Next week (09.15 - 09.19), it is expected that the futures prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No.1 will fluctuate. The trading focus of the soybean market still lies in the "economic and trade talks", waiting for further guidance. The spot market of domestic soybeans is waiting for the new soybeans to be listed, and the spot prices are stable and weak. The futures market has fallen in advance and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [7] Group 3: Summary of International Soybean Market Fundamentals - US soybean net sales decreased week-on-week and were at the lower end of expectations, with a neutral to bearish impact. In the week ending September 4, the export shipment of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was about 230,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 26%. The cumulative export shipment was about 230,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 26%. The weekly net sales of US soybeans in the current crop year (2025/26) were about 540,000 tons (about 820,000 tons in the previous week), at the lower end of expectations (400,000 - 1.6 million tons). The weekly net sales of US soybeans to China in the current crop year (2025/26) were 0 (0 in the previous week) [2] - The US soybean good-to-excellent rate decreased week-on-week and was slightly higher than expected, with a slightly bullish impact. As of the week ending September 8, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans was 64% (market expectation: 63%), 65% in the previous week, and 65% in the same period last year [2] - The CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans, import cost, and futures market crushing profit: As of the week ending September 12, the average weekly CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for November delivery increased week-on-week, the average import cost remained stable week-on-week, and the average futures market crushing profit increased slightly week-on-week [2] - The planting of new Brazilian soybeans has started, slightly earlier than last year. As of the week ending September 4, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was about 0.02%, and sowing had not started in the same period last year [2] - The September USDA supply and demand report was slightly bearish but had little impact. The report slightly increased the US soybean planting area in 2025, slightly decreased the yield per unit estimate, and slightly increased the total output. In terms of demand, domestic demand increased, export demand decreased, and the ending inventory slightly increased [2] - China and the US will hold economic and trade talks in Spain. From September 14 to 17, a Chinese delegation led by Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with the US side in Spain to discuss issues such as unilateral tariff measures, abuse of export controls, and TikTok [2][4] Group 4: Summary of Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Situation - The trading volume of soybean meal increased week-on-week. As of the week ending September 12, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 170,000 tons, compared with about 100,000 tons in the previous week [5] - The提货量 of soybean meal increased week-on-week. As of the week ending September 12, the average daily提货量 of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 198,000 tons, compared with about 192,000 tons in the previous week [5] - The basis of soybean meal decreased week-on-week. As of the week ending September 12, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about -42 yuan/ton, compared with about -11 yuan/ton in the previous week and about -25 yuan/ton in the same period last year [5] - The inventory of soybean meal increased week-on-week and decreased year-on-year. As of the week ending September 5, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 1.02 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 6% and a year-on-year decrease of about 17% [5] - The soybean crushing volume increased week-on-week and is expected to increase slightly next week. As of the week ending September 12, the weekly soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills was about 2.36 million tons (2.3 million tons in the previous week and 2.24 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 66% (65% in the previous week and 64% in the same period last year). Next week (September 13 - 19), the soybean crushing volume in oil mills is expected to be about 2.4 million tons (2.05 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 67% (58% in the same period last year) [5] Group 5: Summary of Domestic Soybean No.1 Spot Situation - The soybean prices were stable and weak. The purchase prices of clean soybeans in some northeastern and inland areas remained the same as the previous week, and the sales prices of edible soybeans in the sales areas were mostly the same as the previous week, with a partial decline of 20 yuan/ton [6] - The northeastern production area is waiting for the new soybeans to be listed. New soybeans in some areas of Heilongjiang have been harvested sporadically, but the scale has not been formed yet. The harvest time of new soybeans will be affected by the weather in the production area [6] - The state reserve soybean auction continues, but the market participation is low. The participation in the one-way auction of state reserve soybeans has decreased, and all parties are waiting for the new soybeans to be listed [6] - The trading in the sales areas is slow, waiting for the new soybeans. Many dealers said that after the back-to-school season, the replenishment of the downstream market was almost completed. With the upcoming listing of new soybeans in the northeast, the overall trading this week was normal and slow [6]

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber market has experienced a rebound driven by multiple positive factors, with the main contract reaching a two-month high of 15,000 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of over 10% since early June [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - In July, there were signs of easing global trade tensions, contributing to a rebound in commodity prices and improving sentiment in the rubber sector [2] - The Chinese government is set to release growth stabilization plans for key industries, which is expected to enhance structural adjustments and supply quality, further supporting the rubber market [2] Group 2: Supply Factors - Seasonal production increases in natural rubber are being impacted by heavy rainfall due to Typhoon "Vipa," which is expected to hinder short-term rubber tapping activities, leading to a temporary tightening of supply [3] - The Central Meteorological Administration forecasts significant rainfall in major rubber-producing regions, which may further restrict supply and support price increases [3] Group 3: Import and Inventory Trends - In June 2025, China imported 59.9 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber, a 27.2% increase from the previous year, with a total of 407.5 million tons imported in the first half of 2025, marking a 24.1% rise year-on-year [4] - Despite the increase in imports, domestic tire demand remains limited, leading to a seasonal rise in natural rubber inventory, which may constrain short-term price rebounds [4] Group 4: Automotive Industry Performance - The automotive sector in China has shown strong performance in the first half of 2025, with production and sales increasing by 12.5% and 11.4% respectively, supported by policies encouraging vehicle upgrades [5] - The heavy truck market also demonstrated resilience, with sales increasing by approximately 29% year-on-year, indicating robust demand [5] Group 5: Tire Production and Export Trends - The utilization rates of domestic semi-steel and all-steel tire production facilities have increased, with semi-steel tire utilization rising to 68.13% and all-steel tire utilization reaching 61.98% [6] - In the first half of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 4.71 million tons, a 4.5% increase year-on-year, although future growth may slow due to earlier demand being met [6][7] Group 6: Market Outlook - The current optimistic market sentiment is supported by macroeconomic policies and supply constraints, which may sustain natural rubber price increases in the short term [7] - However, limited demand growth and proximity to previous price peaks may restrict further price rebounds in the future [7]