对港股通的投资者来说，这轮港币走弱就像一笔"隐形手续费"：你以为在跟恒生指数博弈，最终却被美元周期狠狠背刺。 Hello，大家好，这里是@老年人史蒂文，全新栏目【掘金摸鱼】正式上线。不同于【轻读公司】系列对公司业务的深度拆解，本栏目我们将把视角从微观 企业拉向全球宏观视野，拆解政策传导与资产定价的底层逻辑。想听更完整的逻辑和细节，记得去看原版视频的详细解读。 今天我们聚焦2025年下半年至2026年一季度的外汇市场波动，拆解让无数港股通投资者倍感煎熬的港币持续走弱，背后到底藏着怎样的宏观叙事与交易逻 辑。 香港实行联系汇率制度，港币兑美元汇率被严格限定在7.75-7.85的窄幅区间，与美元形成强绑定。这意味着，港币兑人民币的走势，在交易逻辑上几乎等价 于美元兑人民币的镜像映射。 市场存在一个普遍误区：将港币走弱等同于香港经济基本面走弱，而实际情况恰恰相反。 数据显示，2025年香港GDP全年增长约3.5%，四季度同比增长3.8%，经济延续扩张态势，股市回暖、互联互通资金活跃、服务业稳步复苏，香港资产的全 球吸引力持续提升。但核心矛盾在于，联系汇率制度决定了香港利率周期必须跟随美元走势，即便本土基本面持续修复， ...

当全球对美元信用产生质疑时，特朗普却表示"美元可控"，市场将这句表态解读为何种信号？若"弱美 元战略"正式官宣，关税定价逻辑是否改变？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent $1.39 trillion trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU, while appearing to be a significant victory for the U.S., reveals underlying challenges and potential weaknesses in the U.S. dollar's dominance in global markets [1][3]. Trade Agreement Details - The agreement includes commitments from the EU to purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy products and $400 billion in AI chips by 2028, along with an additional $600 billion in investments from European companies into U.S. strategic sectors [1]. - However, the actual projected energy imports from the EU to the U.S. for 2024 are only $64.55 billion, falling significantly short of the annual target of $250 billion [1]. Tariff Adjustments - The U.S. will reduce tariffs on EU automobiles from 27.5% to 15%, while the EU will eliminate tariffs on all U.S. industrial goods, with a 15% cap on tariffs for key products like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [3]. - Economists criticize this as a superficial exchange, suggesting that the EU is making significant concessions without receiving equivalent benefits [3]. Federal Reserve Dynamics - Following the trade agreement, President Trump nominated Stephen Milan, a proponent of weakening the dollar, to the Federal Reserve, which could lead to a significant shift in U.S. monetary policy [3][4]. - The market reacted strongly, with a 91.1% probability of a rate cut by September indicated in federal funds futures, leading to a decline in the dollar index [3]. Political Influence on the Federal Reserve - Tensions within the Federal Reserve are escalating, with Trump pressuring for the removal of Biden-appointed board members, which could result in a majority of Trump-aligned members on the board [4]. - Milan's proposals for reforming the Federal Reserve could undermine its independence, potentially leading to a repeat of past economic crises [5]. Global Market Reactions - The potential loss of independence for the Federal Reserve has raised alarms in global markets, with warnings from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and the IMF about the risks of politicizing central banks [5]. - A decline in the dollar's credibility could lead to a sell-off, increasing the attractiveness of gold and other currencies, while also distorting trade flows due to high tariffs [5]. Economic Philosophies Clash - The trade agreement reflects a clash between the U.S.'s unilateral approach under Trump and China's multilateral "Belt and Road" initiative, with implications for global supply chains [7]. - Short-term benefits may arise for risk assets, but long-term consequences could include rising inflation and economic friction with the EU and Switzerland over the U.S.'s weak dollar strategy [7].