Core Viewpoint - The recent $1.39 trillion trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU, while appearing to be a significant victory for the U.S., reveals underlying challenges and potential weaknesses in the U.S. dollar's dominance in global markets [1][3]. Trade Agreement Details - The agreement includes commitments from the EU to purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy products and $400 billion in AI chips by 2028, along with an additional $600 billion in investments from European companies into U.S. strategic sectors [1]. - However, the actual projected energy imports from the EU to the U.S. for 2024 are only $64.55 billion, falling significantly short of the annual target of $250 billion [1]. Tariff Adjustments - The U.S. will reduce tariffs on EU automobiles from 27.5% to 15%, while the EU will eliminate tariffs on all U.S. industrial goods, with a 15% cap on tariffs for key products like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [3]. - Economists criticize this as a superficial exchange, suggesting that the EU is making significant concessions without receiving equivalent benefits [3]. Federal Reserve Dynamics - Following the trade agreement, President Trump nominated Stephen Milan, a proponent of weakening the dollar, to the Federal Reserve, which could lead to a significant shift in U.S. monetary policy [3][4]. - The market reacted strongly, with a 91.1% probability of a rate cut by September indicated in federal funds futures, leading to a decline in the dollar index [3]. Political Influence on the Federal Reserve - Tensions within the Federal Reserve are escalating, with Trump pressuring for the removal of Biden-appointed board members, which could result in a majority of Trump-aligned members on the board [4]. - Milan's proposals for reforming the Federal Reserve could undermine its independence, potentially leading to a repeat of past economic crises [5]. Global Market Reactions - The potential loss of independence for the Federal Reserve has raised alarms in global markets, with warnings from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and the IMF about the risks of politicizing central banks [5]. - A decline in the dollar's credibility could lead to a sell-off, increasing the attractiveness of gold and other currencies, while also distorting trade flows due to high tariffs [5]. Economic Philosophies Clash - The trade agreement reflects a clash between the U.S.'s unilateral approach under Trump and China's multilateral "Belt and Road" initiative, with implications for global supply chains [7]. - Short-term benefits may arise for risk assets, but long-term consequences could include rising inflation and economic friction with the EU and Switzerland over the U.S.'s weak dollar strategy [7].