证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 31 日 [Table_Title] 地缘问题延续促使全球多数市场震荡较多 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点: 由于一些地区地缘问题的延续未决， 本周全球多数市场震荡。本周美股科技股波动较多。虽然本周 微软出现了较大调整，目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率仍有 35.94，仍然处于高于 35 的区间。费城半导体指数市盈率上升至 47.83，逐步逼近 50 这个区间。纳斯达克指数的市盈率为 41.66，仍然处于 40 以上的区间。由于美股科技股估值偏高，叠 加特朗普关税政策的不确定性影响，美股科技指数中期仍积蓄 一定的回调压力。目前标普 500 席勒市盈率达到 40.81，较长时 间处于 40 以上区间。由于特朗普的经济、关税、外交等多方面 政策的不确定性较大，且美股估值仍然偏高，美股中金融、消 费、工业等行业里面一些偏高位资产中期维度仍存在震荡消化 的可能性。由于格陵兰岛的地缘问题尚未解决，本周欧洲多数 市场出现了明显震荡。由于欧洲经济偏疲软，欧洲多个重要市 场股指 ...

最近，一场围绕美国国债的金融操作引发了全球关注。短短几天时间，丹麦和瑞典的养老基金相继出手，抛售了约81亿美元的美债。 这场操作还未完全被市场消化，特朗普的回应却迅速而激烈。他直接威胁，任何大规模抛售美资产的行为都将面临美国的重大报复。这不仅仅是一次简单的 金融调仓，更是一次隐含着地缘政治紧张气氛的市场信号。美国与欧洲在多个问题上的立场不合，金融领域，成了双方博弈的一个新窗口。 从去年底开始，特朗普频频提到格陵兰岛的战略价值，但这次他不再遮掩，而是直言不讳地表示，美国不仅希望加强在格陵兰岛的军事存在，还要争取取得 该岛美军驻地所在区域的主权。到了2026年1月24日，他更进一步宣布，美国在格陵兰岛的美军驻地区域的主权谈判已进展顺利。 然而，欧洲在这场金融博弈中显得非常谨慎，原因也很简单：美债和美元资产在欧洲金融体系中的占比过大，一旦大规模抛售，市场可能无法承受，反而可 能引发金融动荡。欧洲各国所持有的美债和相关资产规模庞大，谁也不敢轻易率先行动。如果贸然抛售，可能会引发市场恐慌，甚至引起连锁反应。 这一言论引起了丹麦政府的强烈反应。丹麦政府毫不犹豫地表态，拒绝任何形式的主权谈判，并通过外交及行政手段一再声明： ...

欧洲股市小幅走高，矿业股追随大宗商品价格的涨势而跑赢。 斯托克欧洲600指数收涨0.2%。公用事业股涨幅也位居前列，而旅游休闲板块则因美国和中东航班扰动 以及瑞安航空谨慎的业绩指引而承压。 在特朗普取消对欧洲国家征收与格陵兰相关的关税计划后，该欧洲基准股指上周已部分收复跌幅。投资 者将密切关注最新的财报，以评估消费者需求的韧性。 贝伦贝格银行多元资产策略与研究主管Ulrich Urbahn表示，鉴于投资者对财报的预期"较为谨慎"，他们 对第四季度财报季的反应可能较为乐观，这凸显了"股市的积极环境"。 周三，美联储预计将维持利率不变，同时市场关注的焦点也将集中在谁将接任美联储主席一职。特朗普 预计最早在本周就会公布人选。 个股方面，纳思德上涨6.1%，摩根士丹利将对该芬兰能源集团的评级上调至"增持"，称其股价在2025年 强劲上涨之后仍有进一步跑赢的空间。Teleperformance股价下跌7.7%，CIC Market Solutions下调了这家 法国呼叫中心运营商的评级及目标价。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：李桐 责任编辑：李桐 欧洲股市小幅 ...

| 网络股指数E ... | 265.20 | +2.79 (+1.07%) | 9567股 | 176.10亿 -1.48% | | ( ) *** | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | us FDN | | | | | | | | 能源业ETF - ... | 49.58 | +0.39 (+0.79%) | 241.30万股 | 124.16亿 +10.89% | | == | | us XLE | | | | | | | | 公用事业ET ... | 42.81 | +0.26 (+0.60%) | 62.24万股 | 62.16亿 | +0.29% | ( ) *** | | us XLU | | | | | | | | 金融业ETF --- | 53.33 | +0.26 (+0.49%) | 125.74万股 | 593.59 7 | -2.63% | 를 " | | us XLF | | | | | | | | 日常消费品E ... | 83.26 | +0.35 (+0.42%) | 42.27万股 | 140.89 7, | +7. ...

■首席话开局 莲华资产洪灏： 黄金成全球资产估值锚 有色金属板块仍有机会 ◎卢伊 记者 李雨琪 近期黄金价格大幅走强，并带动有色金属板块稳健上行。2026年金属板块走势将如何演绎？投资者又应 如何把握机遇与配置方向？莲华资产合伙人、首席投资官洪灏近日在接受上海证券报记者专访时表 示："在新的信用体系下，黄金或将成为所有资产估值的锚。" 在洪灏看来，当前贵金属行情尚未结束，主要基于以下三方面逻辑： 第一，黄金价格仍处于合理区间，未出现明显高估。尽管黄金价格已出现显著上涨，但目前约4500美元 的价格仍处在公允价值范围内，整体估值合理。不过，由于前期累计涨幅较大，行情已演绎得较为充 分，除非出现超预期的重大风险事件，短期内再度快速翻倍的可能性较低。 第二，黄金的强势表现正传导至白银及其他贵金属、有色金属领域。这一趋势的核心逻辑在于，市场对 美元信用体系的担忧逐渐显现。当定价货币的信用基础受到质疑时，市场自然倾向于寻找更可靠的锚定 物，这实质上反映出市场心理向"以黄金为本位"逻辑的回归。 第三，大宗商品及金属品种价格仍处于相对低位。以当前估值合理的黄金为基准，重新审视金油比、金 铜比、金银比等指标，可见许多大宗商品 ...

美国总统特朗普周三在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛发表演讲时，谈到了一系列经济问题。以下是一些要 点： 关税和贸易政策 特朗普表示，他的贸易和关税政策已促使工厂建设蓬勃发展，并与多个国家达成了有利于美国的贸易协 议。圣路易斯联储的数据显示，从2024年的峰值算起，2025年前八个月的整体工厂支出有所下降。自从 特朗普在4月份宣布征收"解放日"关税以来，美国制造业的就业岗位逐月减少。 特朗普还表示，关税已将美国的月度贸易逆差削减了77%，且没有导致通货膨胀。美国10月份的贸易逆 差降至2009年以来的最低水平，较9月份下降39%。通货膨胀虽已降温，但物价仍在上涨。 税收改革 特朗普吹捧了今年夏天作为一项大型税收和支出方案一部分而成为法律的经济政策，包括减税、小费税 收减免，以及对符合条件的物业实行100%额外折旧的永久性延长-他称此举将鼓励生产转移到美国。减 税带来的大部分好处将流向中高收入家庭。 住房可负担性 特朗普在达沃斯说："房子是为人建的，不是为公司建的。""美国不会成为一个租客之国。"在周二签署 一项指责华尔街购房者推高住房成本的行政令之后，特朗普呼吁国会通过一项禁令，禁止大型机构投资 者购买独户住宅。 信用 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - From January 12 to January 16, 2026, the issuance volume of credit bonds increased overall on a month - on - month basis, and the credit spreads of various industries also showed an overall upward trend [1]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Primary Market 1.1 Issuance Statistics - During January 12 - 16, 2026, a total of 342 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 331.801 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 6.25%. Among them, 156 industrial bonds were issued, with a scale of 171.1 billion yuan (a 26.40% month - on - month increase, accounting for 51.57% of the total); 162 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 92.801 billion yuan (a 33.19% month - on - month decrease, accounting for 27.97%); 24 financial bonds were issued, with a scale of 67.9 billion yuan (a 78.68% month - on - month increase, accounting for 20.46%) [1][11]. - The average issuance term of credit bonds this week was 2.67 years. The average issuance term of industrial bonds was 2.11 years, urban investment bonds was 3.40 years, and financial bonds was 1.68 years [1][13]. - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds this week was 2.17%. The average issuance coupon rate of industrial bonds was 2.04%, urban investment bonds was 2.33%, and financial bonds was 1.87% [2][17]. 1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics - Five credit bonds were cancelled for issuance this week [23]. 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - By industry, in the Shenwan primary industries, the largest upward movement in the credit spread of AAA - rated industries was in real estate, up 6.9BP; the largest upward movement in the AA + - rated industries was in electrical equipment, up 12.3BP, and the largest downward movement was in leisure services, down 0.4BP; the largest upward movement in the AA - rated industries was in leisure services, up 21.6BP [3]. - By region for urban investment bonds, the largest upward movement in the AAA - rated credit spread was in Anhui, up 6.2BP; the largest upward movement in the AA + - rated was in Xinjiang, up 6BP, and the largest downward movement was in Henan, down 1.8BP; the largest upward movement in the AA - rated was in Shanghai, up 3BP, and the largest downward movement was in Guangxi, down 0.5BP [3]. - Overall, credit spreads in various sectors such as coal, steel, urban investment, non - urban investment, state - owned enterprises, and private enterprises showed an upward trend, while regional urban investment credit spreads showed mixed trends [25]. 2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1521.829 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 8.40%. The top three types of credit bonds in terms of trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes. Specifically, the trading volume of commercial bank bonds was 506.172 billion yuan (an 8.35% month - on - month increase, accounting for 33.26%); corporate bonds was 398.637 billion yuan (an 8.05% month - on - month increase, accounting for 26.19%); medium - term notes was 362.973 billion yuan (a 19.35% month - on - month increase, accounting for 23.85%) [4][27]. 2.3 Actively Traded Bonds This Week - The report selected the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of trading volume this week for investors' reference [29].

Global Economic Outlook - In 2026, the global economy is expected to continue developing under a moderate slowdown, with emerging markets gradually replacing developed economies as the key growth drivers [1] - The monetary policy will shift from accommodative to a wait-and-see approach, focusing on structural differentiation, policy window management, and tail risk control as the main strategies for 2026 [1] Economic Projections for Major Economies - The US economy is projected to slow down from 2.6% in 2025 to a range of 1.8%-2.0% in 2026, driven by chronic consumption issues and AI-related private capital expenditure [2] - The Eurozone is expected to grow at 1.1% in 2026, with manufacturing PMI gradually recovering but facing challenges from geopolitical tensions and weak personal consumption [2] - Japan's growth is anticipated to remain low, with potential quarterly fluctuations, as real wages decline and small businesses face increasing operational pressures [2] - Emerging economies in the Asia-Pacific region are showing mixed performance, with some exceeding expectations while others struggle with weak domestic demand and external pressures [2] Global Central Bank Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to implement three rate cuts of 25 basis points each, bringing the benchmark rate down to 3.00%-3.25% [3] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain a stable interest rate policy, with no clear plans for rate adjustments, while monitoring inflation close to the 2% target [3] - The Bank of Japan is likely to keep the benchmark rate at a low level of 0.5%, facing challenges in balancing inflation control and economic growth [3] - Emerging market central banks will continue a high-accommodation cycle, with varying policy rhythms based on local economic conditions [3] Investment Bank Perspectives - The IMF reports that global economic growth will continue to slow down moderately in 2026, with structural differentiation intensifying due to weakened growth momentum in developed economies [4] - OECD forecasts a decline in global economic growth from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, with the US economy expected to slow to 1.7% [5] - The Eurozone is projected to grow only 1%, indicating a relatively weak performance compared to other regions [5] Core Risk Overview - Geopolitical and trade risks include uncertainties from global tariff restructuring and regional conflicts that could disrupt supply chains and commodity prices [6] - Financial vulnerabilities are high in the Eurozone, with rising debt levels in emerging markets potentially leading to localized financial risks during interest rate adjustments [6] - Commodity price volatility, particularly in energy and food sectors, may disrupt central bank policy rhythms due to external factors like geopolitical conflicts and extreme weather [6] Summary - Globalization is significantly impacted by tariff conflicts, leading to disruptions in global trade chains and a high probability of economic slowdown [7] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy, but the interplay between the Fed and the US government may heighten global financial risks [7] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are likely to benefit, with potential prices reaching between $5000-$5200, while the dollar index may decline below 90 [7] - Commodity markets show mixed signals, with energy prices struggling but potential rebounds in the second half of the year, while non-ferrous metals may rise due to increased global electricity demand and AI development [7]

Core Insights - Estonia's industrial output increased by 3.4% year-on-year in November 2025, according to the Estonian Statistics Office [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The mining sector experienced a significant growth of 10% year-on-year [1] - The manufacturing sector saw a growth of 4.5% year-on-year [1] - The energy sector, however, faced a decline of 8.7% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Sub-sectors - The production of motor vehicles, trailers, and semi-trailers surged by 57.7% year-on-year [1] - The computer and electronic equipment manufacturing sector grew by 4.4% year-on-year [1] - The wood processing industry recorded a modest growth of 1% year-on-year [1] - Conversely, the furniture manufacturing sector declined by 4.3% year-on-year [1] - The food manufacturing sector also saw a decrease of 4.1% year-on-year [1] - The metal products manufacturing sector experienced a slight decline of 0.7% year-on-year [1] - The electrical equipment manufacturing sector had a minimal decrease of 0.1% year-on-year [1]

Group 1 - Elon Musk announced that Neuralink will start large-scale production of brain-machine interfaces in 2026, leading to a surge in related stocks in Hong Kong, particularly Nanjing Panda Electronics, which saw a peak increase of 49.48% [7][10] - The brain-machine interface sector is expected to experience significant growth, driven by policy support and technological breakthroughs, as indicated by research reports from Debon Securities and Open Source Securities [10] - The healthcare industry index in the Hang Seng Composite Industry Index rose by 3.94%, reflecting positive market sentiment towards biotech and related sectors [6] Group 2 - Kuaishou's stock price increased by 11.09%, reaching HKD 73.60 per share, with a trading volume of HKD 9.898 billion, following the release of its 2025 annual trend report [11][14] - The report highlighted that Kuaishou has an average of 260 million daily users engaging with trending content, with over 38.81 million user-generated trending videos created throughout the year [14] - First Shanghai issued a "buy" rating for Kuaishou, projecting revenue growth from RMB 142.22 billion in 2025 to RMB 165.42 billion in 2027, with net profits expected to rise correspondingly [17]