如果你是一位港股投资者，今年的账户表现可能会让你怀疑人生。 第二个驱动力：大宗商品价格持续上行，能源原材料板块业绩直接兑现。 打开账户一看，有的人赚得盆满钵满，有的人亏得怀疑人生。这不是运气问题，而是你有没有站对队的 问题。 来看一组数据：截至2026年2月底，恒生综合行业指数呈现出罕见的极致分化。原材料业暴涨23.62%， 地产建筑业大涨20.02%，能源业涨18.8%，工业涨15.87%。而另一边，信息科技业大跌9.74%，电讯业 跌2.39%，非必需性消费微跌0.65%。 首尾相差超过33个百分点。这意味着，如果你年初买的是原材料，现在已经赚了将近四分之一；如果你 买的是科技股，可能已经亏了十个点。冰火两重天，不过如此。 那么，究竟是什么原因导致了如此剧烈的分化？ 说白了，市场的定价逻辑正在发生根本性转变——从"讲故事"转向"看业绩"，从"成长叙事"转向"政策 确定性"。 第一个驱动力：稳增长政策超预期发力，地产链风险基本解除。 这是本轮分化最核心的政策逻辑。2025年底中央经济工作会议定调"着力稳定房地产市场"后，2026年开 年政策密集落地：商业用房首付比例从50%直接降到30%，二手房增值税减免， ...

期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-02-26 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.3 | 49.0 | 49.1 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 49.4 | 50.1 | 50.2 | | 2026-02-14 | 2026/01 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 72208 | 8178 | 70546 | | 2026-02-13 | 2026/01 | M0:同比 | % | 2.7 | 10.6 | 17.2 | | 2026-02-13 | 2026/01 | M1:同比 | % | 4.9 | 6.2 | 0.4 | | 2026-02-13 | 2026/ ...

● 本报记者 万宇 2月20日，春节假期后港股市场率先开盘。截至2月25日，恒生指数累计上涨0.22%，恒生科技指数累计 下跌近2%。同时，港股市场板块表现分化，电讯业、能源业、工业、原材料业等板块上涨，必需性消 费、综合企业、医疗保健业等板块出现调整。个股方面，大昌微线集团、玖源集团、普天通信集团、亚 博科技控股等大幅上涨，腾讯控股、阿里巴巴、泡泡玛特等下跌。 民生加银基金的基金经理刘欣也对港股市场保持相对乐观，但他同时提示，港股性价比相对低于A股市 场。 港股市场春节假期之后持续波动，部分板块表现分化。公募基金在市场调整之际布局港股，把握后市机 会。多家基金机构仍然对港股投资持相对积极的看法，看好科技与周期品种等。 资金持续布局 诺安基金认为，港股近期表现波动是市场担忧流动性收紧和港股特色结构吸引力下降的共同结果。在整 体信用周期震荡甚至阶段性走弱的情形下，市场指数层面上行空间有限，机会主要来自景气结构方面。 虽然近期港股表现不尽如人意，但资金近来持续积极布局港股。统计显示，截至2月24日，今年以来份 额增加前十的ETF中，有一半是投资港股市场的跨境ETF，华泰柏瑞恒生科技ETF份额增加134.36亿 份 ...

关税、地缘与 AI 叙事扰动，春节多数资产收涨 [Table_Authors] 陈菲(分析师) 全球股市立体投资策略周报 2 月第 2 期 本报告导读： 春节期间发达市场普涨，特朗普关税裁定、中东局势升级及 AI颠覆担忧并存，避险 与风险资产齐涨。资金面上，美国经济数据呈滞涨特征，叠加联储官员偏鹰发言， 联储降息预期走弱。基本面上，美股 26 年盈利预期上修，中欧经济高频景气上修。 投资要点： | | chenfei4@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | 021-23187260 S0880525040127 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 鹰派沃什交易落地，股市波动率攀升 2026.02.03 地缘风险频发，避险资产领涨 2026.01.27 地缘事件与财报季交织，科技结构冲高 2026.01.20 跨年行情在途，亚洲继续领涨 2026.01.14 岁末年初躁动下亚洲市场领涨 2026.01.06 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策 略 研 究 海 外 策 略 研 究 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.25 [Tabl ...

截至2026年2月25日，加元兑美元实时汇率报0.7302，较前一交易日微涨0.027%，昨收0.7300、今开 0.7301，近期呈窄幅震荡、整体偏弱态势。加元走势受多重因素影响，加拿大央行利率维稳提供短期支 撑，但经济疲软、出口承压及美国贸易扰动，使其短期难破震荡区间，中期取决于经济复苏与货币政策 导向。 关键点位方面，上方0.7350-0.7360压力凸显，多次未能突破，站稳后可看向0.7400关口；下方0.7280为 关键支撑，跌破或下探0.7250-0.7270区间。 2025年加元兑美元震荡下行，围绕0.72-0.74区间波动，主要受央行降息、经济放缓及美国贸易扰动影 响。当年10月央行将利率降至2.25%后暂停降息，汇率进入窄幅震荡，年底收于0.73附近。 2026年机构预判谨慎，多数认为央行维稳将限制加元下行，经济疲软与出口压力制约上行，预计全年波 动于0.72-0.745区间。中加经贸落地、原油回升将提振加元；美国贸易收紧、经济复苏不及预期则可能 导致其走弱。 投资者短期关注加拿大通胀、失业率及美国贸易动向，中期跟踪经济复苏、央行政策及大宗商品走势。 当前汇率震荡博弈，建议谨慎操作、控制仓位 ...

从行业板块方面看，马年春节以来，港股市场行业板块普遍上涨，电讯业、能源业、工业领涨市场，分 别累计上涨2.62%、2.48%、2.43%，原材料业累计涨幅超1%，资讯科技业、金融业、非必需性消费等 小幅上涨；而必需性消费、综合企业、医疗保健业下跌。 个股方面，整个港股市场马年春节以来近半数股票上涨，大昌微线集团累计涨幅超100%，玖源集团、 普天通信集团、亚博科技控股等累计涨幅超50%，中国信息科技、迅策、智谱等累计涨幅超20%。 ● 本报记者 刘英杰 马年春节开市以来，港股市场震荡调整，科技新势力表现活跃，半导体板块上涨趋势明显。 分析人士认为，随着AI大模型加速落地、人形机器人产业不断催化，叠加上市公司业绩披露期渐近， 中国资产有望持续获得投资者关注。尽管短期市场有所波动，但在估值优势、产业趋势与资金流向等多 重积极因素共振下，港股春季行情有望渐次展开。 指数震荡分化 马年春节开市以来（2月20日至2月24日）的三个交易日，港股市场主要股指震荡，恒生指数累计下跌 0.43%，恒生中国企业指数累计下跌0.69%，恒生科技指数累计下跌1.80%。但从2026年1月以来，港股 三大指数仅恒生科技指数累计下跌超4 ...

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline on the first trading day of the Year of the Rabbit, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.1% to 26,413.35 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping by 2.91% to 5,211.5 points [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 1.22% to 8,959.56 points, while the Hang Seng Red Chip Index saw a slight increase of 0.09% to 4,384.28 points [1] - The total market turnover was HKD 165.373 billion [1] Sector Performance - The internet technology sector saw significant declines, with Baidu dropping over 6% and Alibaba falling nearly 5% [1] - Semiconductor stocks also weakened, with Hua Hong Semiconductor down nearly 6% and SMIC declining over 3% [1] - Conversely, the domestic AI large model sector experienced gains, with Zhiyun rising nearly 43% and MiniMax increasing over 14%, both surpassing a market capitalization of HKD 300 billion [1] Notable Stock Movements - Among the Hang Seng Index constituents, JD Health fell by 6.27%, Baidu Group-SW decreased by 6.25%, and Alibaba-W dropped by 4.91% [1] - In contrast, China Petroleum gained 3.7%, Henderson Land rose by 3%, and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group increased by 2.63% [1] - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group's GLP-1/GIP receptor dual agonist long-acting injection received FDA approval for clinical trials targeting weight management in obese or overweight patients with related comorbidities [1] Industry Indices - The Consumer Discretionary Index fell by 3.00%, the Information Technology Index decreased by 2.30%, and the Consumer Staples Index dropped by 1.64% [2] - On the other hand, the Energy Index rose by 1.62%, the Healthcare Index increased by 0.77%, and the Industrial Index saw a gain of 0.31% [2]

Group 1 - Technology and energy stocks were the main drivers of the US stock market's rise on Wednesday, with the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks all gaining, led by Amazon and Nvidia, which saw intraday increases of nearly 3% [1] - Nvidia's stock price benefited from a new agreement with Meta to deploy millions of Nvidia chips over the coming years [1] - Amazon's stock was supported by a 65% increase in holdings from Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, despite a 77% cut in holdings by Berkshire Hathaway [1] Group 2 - Strong economic data, including December new housing starts and core capital goods orders, exceeded expectations, contributing to early gains in major US stock indices [2] - The release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes reignited inflation concerns, leading to a reduction in stock gains and a brief decline in the Dow Jones [2][3] - The minutes highlighted internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions, with some officials advocating for the inclusion of potential rate hikes in guidance [3] Group 3 - The energy sector saw a boost from a rebound in oil prices, with US WTI crude oil rising over 5% at one point, closing at $65.19 per barrel, marking the largest increase in nearly four months [4][39] - Brent crude oil also saw significant gains, closing above $70 for the first time this month [39] Group 4 - The gold market experienced fluctuations, with spot gold briefly rising above $5000 before falling back below this level after the Federal Reserve's minutes were released [5][41] - Silver prices also saw a rise, with COMEX silver futures increasing by 5.5% [42] Group 5 - The semiconductor sector outperformed the broader market, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising by 0.96%, and Micron Technology gaining over 5% after significant purchases by hedge funds [6][12] - The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks index rose by 0.77%, with notable gains from Amazon and Nvidia [10]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) will expand from 88 to 90 constituent stocks, adding CATL, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Laopuhuang Gold, while removing Zhongsheng Holdings [3][4] - Laopuhuang Gold will be classified under "Consumer Discretionary and Staples," with an initial weight of approximately 0.29%, while Alibaba's weight will return to 8% after adjustments [3] - The overall weight of the "Energy, Materials, Industrial, and Conglomerates" sector will increase from 10.03% to 10.90% due to the inclusion of CATL and Luoyang Molybdenum [4] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Composite Index will grow from 507 to 532 stocks, adding 53 new stocks including Woan Robotics and JD Industrial, while removing 28 stocks [6] - The recent sell-off of tech stocks has affected the Hong Kong market, with major players like Tencent and Alibaba experiencing significant declines in Q4 2025, necessitating a rebalancing of their weights [4][8] - The adjustment reflects a structural change in the Hong Kong market, reducing reliance on traditional financial and real estate sectors while increasing exposure to new economy and high-end manufacturing [8]

Core Insights - The overall shareholding ratio of southbound funds in Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks is 19.62%, with 256 stocks having a shareholding ratio exceeding 20% [1] - Southbound funds have become significant participants in the Hong Kong stock market, holding a total of 5021.32 million shares valued at 65711.64 billion HKD, representing 14.94% of the total market capitalization of the targeted stocks [1] Group 1: Shareholding Distribution - 256 stocks have a southbound fund shareholding ratio exceeding 20%, while 137 stocks are in the 10%-20% range, 91 stocks in the 5%-10% range, 80 stocks in the 1%-5% range, and 21 stocks below 1% [1] - The stock with the highest southbound fund shareholding is China Telecom, with 99.00 million shares, accounting for 71.33% of the issued shares [2] - Other notable stocks with high southbound fund holdings include Haotian International Investment at 69.79% and Green Power Environmental at 68.88% [2] Group 2: Industry Concentration - Southbound fund holdings exceeding 20% are primarily concentrated in the healthcare, industrial, and financial sectors, with 58, 40, and 35 stocks respectively [2] - A total of 136 AH concept stocks are among those with over 20% southbound fund holdings, making up 53.13% of that group [1] - In the 10%-20% holding category, AH stocks account for 20.44% [1]