Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The market shows a confrontation between "weak expectations" and "strong reality." Despite inventory reduction providing support, due to the certain expectation of future supply increase, bullish confidence is insufficient, and price rebound is weak. It is expected that the price will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term [8][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2601 fluctuated within a narrow range between 1131 - 1191 yuan/ton. As of the afternoon closing on December 4, 2025, the main soda ash futures contract SA2601 dropped 40 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 3.40%, and closed at 1137 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: As of December 4, 2025, the domestic soda ash production this week was 703,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,800 tons, or 0.82%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 80.74%, compared with 80.08% the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 0.66% [6]. - **Inventory**: As of December 4, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5386 million tons, a decrease of 31,300 tons from Monday, a decline of 1.99%. Among them, light soda ash was 727,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,700 tons, and heavy soda ash was 810,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 24,600 tons [7]. 3.3 Soda Ash Supply - Demand Situation - **Production and Capacity Analysis**: As of December 4, 2025, the domestic soda ash production this week was 703,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,800 tons, or 0.82%. The light soda production was 322,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,300 tons, and the heavy soda production was 381,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash this week was 80.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.66%. The ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 90.85%, a week - on - week increase of 2.45%; the co - production capacity utilization rate was 70.95%, a week - on - week increase of 2.89%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 85.82%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.86% [9][11]. - **Inventory Analysis**: As of December 4, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5386 million tons, a decrease of 31,300 tons from Monday, a decline of 1.99%. Compared with last Thursday, it decreased by 48,800 tons, a decline of 3.07%. Among them, light soda ash was 727,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,800 tons; heavy soda ash was 810,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36,000 tons [14]. - **Shipment Situation Analysis**: As of December 4, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises this week was 752,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.32%; the overall soda ash shipment rate was 106.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.23 percentage points [16]. - **Profit Analysis**: As of December 4, 2025, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of Chinese soda ash by the co - production method was - 98.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 29.64%. The theoretical profit of Chinese soda ash by the ammonia - soda method was - 68.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 77.92% [19][25]. 3.4 Downstream Industry Situation - **Float Glass Industry Output**: As of December 4, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 155,000 tons, a 1.4% decrease compared to the 27th. The national float glass output from November 28 to December 4, 2025, was 1.0851 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.25% [28]. - **Float Glass Industry Inventory**: As of December 4, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.442 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.92 million heavy boxes, a decline of 4.68%, and a year - on - year increase of 23.25%. The inventory days were 26.8 days, a 0.7 - day decrease from the previous period [32]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - **Market Situation**: This week, the price of the main soda ash futures contract declined under pressure, with a significant weekly decline, and generally maintained a narrow - range oscillating pattern at a low level. The core market contradiction lies in the game between future production increase pressure and the marginal improvement of the current fundamentals. - **Negative Factors**: The supply pressure is the main suppressing factor. The production increased slightly week - on - week, especially after some large - scale plants ended maintenance, the supply recovered. In addition, the market's expectation of the gradual release of new production capacity in Inner Mongolia is increasing, which suppresses the far - month contracts and the overall market sentiment. - **Positive Factors**: The total inventory of manufacturers continued to decline this week, and the inventory of heavy soda ash decreased significantly, alleviating the supply - demand pressure in the short term. At the same time, the industry as a whole is still in a loss state, and the profit of the ammonia - soda method has further declined, providing strong cost support for the price and limiting the downside space. 3.6 Operational Suggestions - **Single - side Trading**: Adopt a short - term oscillating mindset, and it is recommended to sell high and buy low within the oscillating range, and avoid chasing up or selling down. - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily wait and see. - **Options**: Consider selling the wide - strangle option strategy when appropriate [40].