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特斯拉再一次预判潮水的方向
自动驾驶之心· 2025-12-18 09:35
Core Viewpoint - Tesla's AI leader Ashok Elluswamy revealed the technical methodology behind Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) in a recent article, emphasizing the choice of an end-to-end neural network model and addressing the challenges faced in practice [4][6]. Group 1: End-to-End Neural Network Model - Tesla's decision to adopt an end-to-end neural network model is driven by the need to address complex driving scenarios that cannot be pre-defined by rules, such as the "trolley problem" and second-order effects [6][10]. - The end-to-end model is described as a complete overhaul of previous architectures, fundamentally changing design, coding, and validation processes, leading to a more human-like driving experience [11][19]. - The model outputs driving instructions alongside interpretable "intermediate results," utilizing technologies like generative Gaussian splatting to create dynamic 3D models of the environment in real-time [8][17]. Group 2: VLA and World Model Concepts - VLA (Vision-Language-Action) is an extension of the end-to-end model that incorporates language information, allowing for a more visual representation of driving behavior [12][14]. - The world model aims to establish a high-bandwidth cognitive system based on video/image data, addressing the limitations of language models in understanding complex, dynamic environments [15][19]. - The relationship between end-to-end, VLA, and world models is clarified, with end-to-end serving as the foundation, VLA as an upgrade, and the world model as the ultimate form of understanding spatial dynamics [12][19]. Group 3: Industry Perspectives and Trends - The industry is divided into three main technical routes: end-to-end, VLA, and world model, with companies like Horizon Robotics and Bosch primarily adopting end-to-end due to lower costs and higher stability [13][19]. - VLA has faced criticism from industry leaders who argue that its reliance on language models may not be essential for effective autonomous driving, emphasizing the need for spatial understanding instead [16][19]. - Tesla's recent publication has reignited discussions in the industry, positioning the company at the forefront of current technological directions and providing a systematic analysis of practical applications [20].
零一之间——Agent眼中的市场
2025-06-04 01:50
Summary of Conference Call Notes Company/Industry Involved - The discussion revolves around the application of reinforcement learning models in the convertible bond market. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Reinforcement Learning Model Performance** The model optimizes convertible bond returns by evaluating current buying behavior and future selling timing. Data from outside the sample indicates that since 2020, the model often suggests a buying recommendation of 0, indicating a lack of market buying opportunities, with only a few periods suggesting purchases [1][5][10]. 2. **Market Conditions and Investment Strategy** When market views are clear, specific investment recommendations can be emphasized. In contrast, when the market is ambiguous, it is more beneficial to focus on structural opportunities within specific sectors or industries rather than relying on overall market trends [1][6]. 3. **Risk Management and Positioning** Position management can be dynamically adjusted based on market conditions. The average position over the long term is 46%, which is suitable for combining with secondary bond funds or half-position convertible bonds. In extreme cases, the strategy may completely exit the market to avoid risks, maintaining a neutral viewpoint for flexible adjustments [1][13]. 4. **Model Limitations** The model is not suitable for all types of convertible bonds, particularly large-cap bonds in sectors like electricity and banking, due to differing patterns and large data volumes that exceed standard office equipment capabilities [1][10][12]. 5. **Historical Performance and Risk Avoidance** Historical data shows that the model effectively avoids trend risks, successfully steering clear of significant market downturns in January 2024 and March 2025, while re-entering during upward trends. However, it struggles with identifying specific liquidity issues in small-cap stocks [1][11]. 6. **Current Market Outlook** As of June 2024, the market model indicated an oversold condition, but the recovery took longer than expected. The current market model's viewpoint is neutral at 0.51, suggesting investors should carefully evaluate their strategies rather than making impulsive buy or sell decisions [1][14]. 7. **Investment Recommendations** The types of securities currently suitable for purchase include: - Long-term rising call options with low premiums - Individual bonds with high YTM and stable underlying stock performance - Bonds with moderate valuation elasticity, with the first category being the most recommended [2][15]. 8. **Combining Fundamental and Strategic Analysis** In convertible bond research, a detailed combination of fundamental and strategic analysis is essential. This approach helps investment managers effectively select securities for purchase and develop corresponding strategies [1][16]. 9. **Communication Skills of Convertible Bond Managers** Convertible bond investment managers must possess strong research and communication skills to explain complex products to non-professionals effectively. Clear communication is crucial, especially when addressing common recurring questions [1][18]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The model's ability to avoid local optimization issues by introducing more factors and using random exploration strategies, such as simulated annealing, to enhance its generalization capabilities [1][9]. - The historical underperformance of near-term bonds, which often do not yield favorable results compared to full sample tests, suggesting a preference for selecting bonds with better long-term potential [1][17].