影响因素分析
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豆油期货日报-20250922
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 12:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean oil futures market showed an oscillating upward trend, but the reduction in positions of the main contract while prices rose indicates weakening capital enthusiasm for chasing high prices and limited rebound momentum. The high basis in the spot market provides bottom - support, yet macro factors such as crude oil price fluctuations and domestic oil inventory pressure restrict the upside potential. In the short - term, the futures price is expected to continue to trade within a range, and attention should be paid to capital movements and the process of spot inventory reduction [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 19, 2025, the soybean oil futures market showed an oscillating upward trend. The main contract y2601 closed at 8,328 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 331,651 lots and an open interest of 571,426 lots, a decrease of 3,418 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The total trading volume of soybean oil contracts was 378,156 lots, and the total open interest was 820,566 lots, a decrease of 3,207 lots compared to the previous day [4]. - **Related Market**: The soybean oil options traded 40,410 lots throughout the day, with an open interest of 110,114 lots, an increase of 2,676 lots in open interest, and 0 lots exercised [7]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of Grade - 1 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang on the day was 8,560 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the main contract v2601 was 8,336 yuan/ton, with a basis of 224 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - On September 18, commodity funds net - sold 3,000 lots of CBOT soybean futures contracts, 4,000 lots of corn futures contracts, 1,000 lots of wheat futures contracts, 500 lots of soybean meal futures contracts, and 3,000 lots of soybean oil futures contracts [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The soybean oil futures closed higher in an oscillating manner, but the reduction in positions of the main contract while prices rose indicates weak capital enthusiasm for chasing high prices and limited rebound momentum. The high basis in the spot market provides bottom - support, while macro factors such as crude oil price fluctuations and domestic oil inventory pressure restrict the upside potential. As the traditional consumption peak season in the fourth quarter approaches, the strength of demand recovery will be the key driver. In the short - term, the futures price is expected to continue to trade within a range, and attention should be paid to capital movements and the process of spot inventory reduction [10].