成文日期: 20250919 报告周期:日度 研究品种:豆瓣 研究员:漆建华(从业资格号:F03099134;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0017731) 油期货目报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 今日（20250919）豆油期货市场整体呈现震荡上涨走势。主力 合约 y2601 收于 8,328 元/吨，较上个交易日上涨 22 元/吨，成交量 为 331,651 手，持仓量为 571,426 手，持仓量减少 3,418 手。 图 1 豆油期货主力合约分时图 图片数据来源：WIND 1.2 品种价格 豆油合约总成交量 378,156 手,总持仓量 820,566 手,较前日减 少 3,207 手。 图 2 豆油期货各合约日行情数据 研究热线：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 | | | 商品名称合约名称 开盘价最高价最低价收盘价前结算价结算价储算价涨跌8跌跌1 成交量 | | | | | | | 行者都受益 曹玲妹 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the soybean meal m2601 contract is expected to mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term, as the approaching US soybean harvest season clarifies production expectations, and concerns about the uncertainty of US soybean export prospects lead to a continued decline in overnight CBOT soybean futures. Domestically, the high volume of imported soybean crushing results in a situation where the production of soybean meal exceeds the提货 quantity of terminal feed and breeding enterprises, weakening the price - holding intention of oil mills [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On September 4, 2025, the soybean meal m2601 contract showed a weak oscillating trend, with the price rising first and then falling. It closed at 3048 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton or 0.20% from the previous day. The daily trading volume was 956,943 lots, and the open interest was 2,043,281 lots [2]. 3.1.2 Variety Prices - On the same day, the prices of all soybean meal futures contracts declined. The total open interest of the variety contracts was 4,203,542 lots, an increase of 20,034 lots from the previous trading day [3]. 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Spot Quotes - On September 4, 2025, the spot quotes of soybean meal in some domestic regions were stable with a slight decline. For example, the price in Rizhao decreased by 10 yuan to 2990 yuan, while the prices in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, and Dongguan remained unchanged at 2990 yuan, 3060 yuan, and 2960 yuan respectively, all with a protein content of 43% [7][8]. 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The total number of soybean meal registered warehouse receipts increased by 3,750 lots to 19,375 lots. The warehouse receipts at Nantong Cargill increased from 0 to 3,750 lots, while those at other warehouses remained unchanged [9]. 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - The import cost of soybeans decreased today. The import cost of US soybeans was 4544 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton from the previous day, reaching a more than three - week low. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans was 3904 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton, hitting a four - week low. The import cost of Argentine soybeans was 3774 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton, refreshing a more than three - week low. - As of the week ending August 27, Argentine farmers sold 656,300 tons of 2024/2025 soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales volume to 3,053,870 tons [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook - With the approaching US soybean harvest season and the uncertainty of US soybean export prospects, the overnight CBOT soybean futures continued to decline. Domestically, the high crushing volume of imported soybeans and the situation where the production of soybean meal exceeds the demand of terminal enterprises weaken the oil mills' price - holding intention. The price of the m2601 contract is expected to mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [12].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The glass futures market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term, with a tug - of - war between weak reality and policy expectations. Mid - term directional breakthroughs depend on the actual implementation of capacity - clearing policies and the substantial recovery of demand during the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The market's kinetic energy conversion depends on inventory reduction rates and the pace of macro - level positive news realization [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On August 13, 2025, the FG2601 glass futures contract oscillated around the moving average during the night and early sessions. In the afternoon, short - sellers gained the upper hand, pushing the price down to the daily low and closing with a negative line. The price dropped by 19 yuan/ton, a 1.54% decline, and closed at 1214 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 2.2177 million lots, and the open interest was 1.0237 million lots [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices - All 12 glass futures contracts closed lower. The total open interest of the variety was 1.8795 million lots, a decrease of 59,402 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract FG2601 increased by 88,800 lots [5] 3.1.3 Related Quotes - On the day, put options on glass outperformed call options [8] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of glass continued to be weak. Prices in Northeast China remained stable, while prices in other regions were under pressure and declined [10] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Supply - Demand Factors - Supply side: The daily melting volume of float glass in production reached 159,600 tons, a 0.38% increase month - on - month. The operating rate was 75.34%, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.78%. The weekly output increased by 0.16% to 1.117 million tons. In August, there were 2 cold - repaired and 2 restarted production lines, with capacity remaining basically unchanged. Demand side: The demand for real - estate completion did not improve. Deep - processing enterprises faced difficulties in collecting funds, and new orders decreased year - on - year. They mainly focused on consuming raw - sheet inventories [11] 3.3.2 Inventory Analysis - The overall inventory of glass enterprises increased from a downward trend. It rose by 2.348 million weight boxes, a 3.95% increase, reaching a total of 61.847 million weight boxes. Inventories of glass enterprises in all regions increased [13]