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隐波上升,金融、商品市场整体下跌
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 02:56
南华期权周报 I 2025/11/17—2025/11/21 隐波上升,金融、商品市场整体下跌 本周摘要 金融期权方面,50ETF 期权本周日均成交量为 80.63 万张, 较前周下降 0.00%,其中认沽期权成交量高于认购期权,认沽-认 购成交比为 1.04,相对前周有所下降,高于历史均值水平。上周 认沽认购持仓比为 0.98,较前周下降,高于历史均值。华泰柏瑞 300ETF 期权日均成交 98.95 万张,日均持仓量 146.93 万张;南 方中证 500ETF 期权日均成交 145.55 万张,日均持仓量 145.36 万张;华夏上证科创 50ETF 期权日均成交 118.44 万张,日均持 仓量 247.69 万张;深证 100ETF 期权日均成交 8.7 万张,日均持 仓量 13.98 万张;创业板 ETF 期权日均成交 184.65 万张,日均 持仓量 198.33 万张;沪深 300 股指期权日均成交 11.88 万手, 日均持仓量 21.09 万手;中证 1000 股指期权日均成交 26.93 万 手,日均持仓 32.31 万手。 波动率方面,截止本周五收盘,沪深 300 股指期权隐含波动 率 ...
商品期权周报-20251109
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-09 14:57
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, the trading volume of commodity options increased slightly, with only the trading volume of the precious metals sector decreasing. Most varieties are in a volatility - reduction cycle, and it is advisable to move short - option positions to far - month contracts in advance to avoid end - of - contract risks [4]. - The options of the black sector showed increased volatility and trading volume. Affected by the decline in iron ore futures prices, the implied volatility of black options has risen. The previous policy - driven boost has basically been realized, and the market trading logic has returned to fundamentals. There is a lack of new macro - drivers, and the upward momentum of prices has been weakened. The implied volatility still has room to rise, and it is advisable to buy a bearish put spread portfolio to hedge against the downward market [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of commodity options increased slightly last week, with the precious metals sector being the only one with a decline in trading volume. Energy and chemical products such as short - fiber, PTA, methanol, glass, crude oil, caustic soda, soda ash, and bottle chips are about to expire on Wednesday. Most varieties are in a volatility - reduction cycle [4]. - The options of the black sector showed increased volatility and trading volume. The implied volatility of black options has risen due to the decline in iron ore futures prices. The previous policy - driven boost has basically been realized, and the market trading logic has returned to fundamentals [4]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - The table shows the quantitative data of commodity options, including the flat - value volatility, 60 - day quantile, Skew, and 60 - day quantile of various varieties such as corn, soybean meal, and crude oil [12]. 3.2.2 - 3.2.54 Option Data of Each Variety - For each variety (such as corn, soybean meal, etc.), the data includes the closing price, trading volume, open interest, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, flat - value volatility, HV - 10 days, HV - 20 days, and Skew of the main contract, secondary - main contract, and all contracts [13][14][15] etc.
商品期权数据日报-20251107
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 05:37
Report Overview - The report is a daily data report on commodity options provided by ITC Guomao Futures, covering information on historical volatility, implied volatility, and price changes of various commodities [4][5]. Key Information 1. Price and Volatility of Commodities - **Metals**: For example, the price of Shanghai Aluminum was 21,630 with a 0.31% change and a daily volatility of 27.00%, and its historical volatilities (HV20, HV40, HV60, HV120) were 10%, 9%, 8%, 9% respectively; Shanghai Copper had a price of 86,320, a 0.04% change, a daily volatility of 21.55%, and historical volatilities of 18%, 19%, 16%, 13% [5]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Methanol had a price of 2,125, a 0.24% change, a daily volatility of 31.30%, and historical volatilities of 21%, 17%, 17%, 21%; Crude Oil had a price of 460.4, a -0.37% change, a daily volatility of 34.39%, and historical volatilities of 23%, 25%, 23%, 32% [5]. - **Agricultural Products**: Corn had a price of 2,154, a 0.75% change, a daily volatility of 21.05%, and historical volatilities of 10%, 10%, 13%, 11%; Soybean Meal had a price of 3,068, a 0.95% change, a daily volatility of 18.87%, and historical volatilities of 14%, 15%, 15%, 13% [5]. 2. Implied Volatility and Related Data - Different commodities have different implied volatilities and主力平值IV分位值. For example, the主力平值IV of Eggs was 30% with a 1.46%主力平值IV分位值; that of Polysilicon was 51% with a 13%主力平值IV分位值 [6]. 3. Historical Trends - The report presents the historical trends of some commodities such as Industrial Silicon, Iron Ore, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Rubber, and Crude Oil, including the relationship between the closing price, HV60, and主力平值隐波 [8].
农产品期权策略早报:农产品期权-20251106
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 02:57
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows different trends. Oilseeds and oils are in a weak and volatile state, while some agricultural by - products and soft commodities maintain a volatile trend. The report suggests constructing option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product options have various price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the price of soybean No.1 (A2601) increased by 1.52% to 4,139, with a trading volume of 21.72 million lots and an open interest of 24.83 million lots [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different option varieties vary, which can be used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.85 with a change of - 0.29, and the open interest PCR is 1.20 with no change [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of different option varieties are determined. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4200 and the support level is 4050 [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties shows different levels and changes. For example, the weighted implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 12.58% with a change of 0.67%, and the annual average is 13.32% [6] 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations - **Oilseeds and Oils Options**: - **Soybean No.1**: The price is stable and slightly strong. It is recommended to construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean crushing volume has changed. It is recommended to construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Palm Oil**: The production and export of Malaysian palm oil have changed. It is recommended to construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Peanut**: The price of peanut oil is stable. It is recommended to use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Agricultural By - products Options**: - **Pig**: The price has increased slightly, but there are supply - side pressures. It is recommended to construct a bear spread strategy for direction, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a covered strategy for spot [10] - **Egg**: The inventory of laying hens has decreased. It is recommended to construct a bear spread strategy for direction, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility [11] - **Apple**: The price has increased due to quality issues. It is recommended to construct a long - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] - **Jujube**: The inventory has increased. It is recommended to construct a short - biased strangle option combination strategy for volatility, and a covered strategy for spot hedging [12] - **Soft Commodities Options**: - **Sugar**: The spot price has decreased. It is recommended to construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12] - **Cotton**: The price index has increased. It is recommended to construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a covered strategy for spot [13] - **Grain Options**: - **Corn**: The supply has increased and the demand is weak. It is recommended to construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility [13]
农产品期权策略早报:农产品期权-20251105
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 01:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows different trends. Oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, while some other products like eggs and apples have their own specific trends. Strategies mainly focus on constructing option - combination strategies based on sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures have various price changes. For example, the price of soybean No.1 (A2601) is 4,042, down 34 (-0.83%); the price of soybean No.2 (B2512) is 3,707, down 32 (-0.86%); and the price of palm oil (P2601) is 8,654, up 2 (0.02%) [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open - interest PCR of different agricultural product options vary. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 1.14, with a change of - 0.02; the open - interest PCR is 1.20, with a change of 0.05 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of option factors, different agricultural products have different pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,200, and the support level is 4,050; the pressure level of soybean No.2 is 3,800, and the support level is 3,600 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different agricultural product options also shows differences. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 11.145, and the weighted implied volatility is 11.91, with a change of - 0.35 [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1**: The fundamental price is stable with a slight upward trend. The option implied volatility is below the historical average. The recommended strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean weekly crushing volume has decreased. The option implied volatility is below the historical average. The recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil**: The production of Malaysian palm oil faces pressure, and the export growth rate has narrowed. The option implied volatility is below the historical average. The recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanut**: The price of peanut oil is stable. The option implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level. The recommended strategy is a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Pig**: The average price in some regions has increased slightly. The option implied volatility is above the historical average. The recommended strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy with put options, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a covered call strategy for spot [10]. - **Egg**: The inventory of laying hens has decreased. The option implied volatility is at a relatively high level. The recommended strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy with put options and a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [11]. - **Apple**: The price of apple futures has increased. The option implied volatility is above the historical average. The recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Jujube**: The physical inventory has increased. The option implied volatility has risen rapidly. The recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased strangle option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [12]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: The spot price has decreased, and the basis has weakened. The option implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level. The recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Cotton**: The price index has increased, and the basis has fluctuated. The option implied volatility is at a relatively low level. The recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [13]. 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn**: The supply in the origin has increased, and the trading enthusiasm of traders has decreased. The option implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level. The recommended strategy is to construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [13].
商品期权周报-20251012
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-12 13:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday until the daytime closing on Friday, the trading volume of commodity options decreased, and implied volatility (IV) almost declined across the board. On Friday night, macro - information increased market panic, and it is expected that IV will rise significantly in the short term. There are many end - of - life game opportunities for option buyers of expiring options on Monday (bottle chips, rapeseed meal, PTA, caustic soda, rapeseed oil, cotton, short - fiber, soda ash, methanol, glass, and sugar near - month contracts) and Wednesday (crude oil near - month contract). Attention should be paid to the risks of rising volatility and being exercised [4]. - Agricultural products are relatively less affected. Beans may have price - rising opportunities due to import constraints, and the IV of corresponding bean options is relatively low, which can be observed as long - term option - buying layout varieties, and call options can be bought at an appropriate time [4]. - Under the weak fundamental and macro - environment of some non - ferrous and new - energy varieties, more call options can be sold to obtain income, and put options can be bought for directional trading or hedging [4]. - For varieties with strong fundamentals, volatility can be observed, and out - of - the - money put options can be sold at low prices and high volatility to gradually build long positions [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The overall trading volume of the commodity option market this week was 6,438,734, a decrease of 0.11% from last week, and the open interest was 9,557,880, an increase of 0.17% from last week. Among them, the trading volume of agricultural products was 1,599,862.75, an increase of 0.39% from last week; the trading volume of energy and chemical products was 2,661,095.25, a decrease of 0.01% from last week; the trading volume of black metals was 401,971.5, a decrease of 0.46% from last week; the trading volume of precious metals was 604,400.75, a decrease of 1.48% from last week; the trading volume of non - ferrous and new - energy varieties was 1,171,403.75, an increase of 0.3% from last week [7]. 3.2 Corn Options - The closing price of the main contract c2511 was 2125, down 53, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 124,100, an increase of 13,703 from last week, and the open interest was 383,371, an increase of 15,154 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 10.62 to 9.82 [15]. 3.3 Soybean Meal Options - The closing price of the main contract m2511 was 2900, down 5, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 294,614, a decrease of 78,523 from last week, and the open interest was 1,033,413, an increase of 29,869 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 15.24 to 11.67 [16]. 3.4 Rapeseed Meal Options - The closing price of the main contract rm2511 was 2458, up 2, with 1 trading day remaining. The total trading volume this week was 125,135, an increase of 11,621 from last week, and the open interest was 188,419, an increase of 14,047 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 29.68 to 23.0 [17]. 3.5 Palm Oil Options - The closing price of the main contract p2511 was 9320, up 146, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 137,584, a decrease of 13,943 from last week, and the open interest was 159,813, an increase of 22,108 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 20.56 to 16.64 [18]. 3.6 Soybean Oil Options - The closing price of the main contract y2511 was 8308, up 138, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 50,526, a decrease of 2,659 from last week, and the open interest was 110,669, a decrease of 6,590 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 14.57 to 11.76 [20]. 3.7 Rapeseed Oil Options - The closing price of the main contract oi2511 was 10232, down 99, with 1 trading day remaining. The total trading volume this week was 78,760, an increase of 1,466 from last week, and the open interest was 117,792, an increase of 6,435 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 24.53 to 14.4 [21]. 3.8 Peanut Options - The closing price of the main contract pk2511 was 7786, down 12. The total trading volume this week was 143,362, an increase of 111,981 from last week, and the open interest was 126,256, an increase of 47,710 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased slightly from 14.53 to 14.38 [22]. 3.9 Yellow Soybean No. 1 Options - The closing price of the main contract a2511 was 3953, up 18, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 40,498, a decrease of 6,520 from last week, and the open interest was 95,611, a decrease of 2,971 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 11.43 to 9.58 [23]. 3.10 Yellow Soybean No. 2 Options - The closing price of the main contract b2511 was 3617, up 8, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 37,607, a decrease of 4,560 from last week, and the open interest was 49,036, an increase of 12,990 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 16.0 to 10.45 [24]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol Options - The closing price of the main contract eg2511 was 4127, down 82, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 18,246, an increase of 9,615 from last week, and the open interest was 38,874, an increase of 10,430 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 14.22 to 11.61 [25]. 3.12 Styrene Options - The closing price of the main contract eb2511 was 6743, down 206, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 104,692, an increase of 25,779 from last week, and the open interest was 99,287, an increase of 25,520 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 17.99 to 16.16 [26]. 3.13 Sugar Options - The closing price of the main contract sr2511 was 5518, up 11, with 1 trading day remaining. The total trading volume this week was 91,045, a decrease of 6,956 from last week, and the open interest was 300,087, an increase of 6,975 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 12.39 to 10.39 [27]. 3.14 Cotton Options - The closing price of the main contract cf2601 was 13325, down 80, with 44 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 214,938, an increase of 78,620 from last week, and the open interest was 490,224, an increase of 77,596 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 11.62 to 9.57 [28]. 3.15 PTA Options - The closing price of the main contract ta2511 was 4510, down 114, with 1 trading day remaining. The total trading volume this week was 385,737, an increase of 144,364 from last week, and the open interest was 335,302, an increase of 74,644 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 23.02 to 16.2 [29]. 3.16 PX Options - The closing price of the main contract px2512 was 6490, down 150, with 13 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 16,658, a significant decrease from last week, and the open interest was 23,469, an increase of 15,242 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 18.02 to 16.26 [30]. 3.17 Caustic Soda Options - The closing price of the main contract sh2511 was 2420, down 63. The total trading volume this week was 143,556, an increase of 50,630 from last week, and the open interest was 106,911, an increase of 21,096 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 31.88 to 21.11 [31]. 3.18 Rubber Options - The closing price of the main contract ru2601 was 15315, down 155, with 54 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 12,402, a decrease of 22,076 from last week, and the open interest was 42,424, an increase of 4,193 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 19.89 to 18.73 [32]. 3.19 BR Rubber Options - The closing price of the main contract br2511 was 11220, down 210, with 11 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 22,220, a significant decrease from last week, and the open interest was 17,469, an increase of 3,604 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 25.7 to 21.92 [33]. 3.20 Polyethylene Options - The closing price of the main contract (assumed) was 7019, down 80, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 24,028, an increase of 1,486 from last week, and the open interest was 56,346, an increase of 7,430 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 9.89 to 8.74 [34]. 3.21 Polypropylene Options - The closing price of the main contract pp2511 was 6651, down 166, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 37,271, an increase of 2,961 from last week, and the open interest was 98,340, an increase of 20,257 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 9.64 to 9.42 [35]. 3.22 Methanol Options - The closing price of the main contract ma2511 was 2255, down 39. The total trading volume this week was 208,323, an increase of 68,535 from last week, and the open interest was 285,762, an increase of 48,102 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 21.19 to 13.4 [36]. 3.23 Liquefied Petroleum Gas Options - The closing price of the main contract pg2511 was 4070, down 220, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 42,903, a slight decrease from last week, and the open interest was 42,637, an increase of 18,342 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 21.43 to 16.38 [37]. 3.24 PVC Options - The closing price of the main contract v2511 was 4652, down 160, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 102,281, an increase of 18,834 from last week, and the open interest was 253,204, an increase of 55,006 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 15.1 to 12.75 [38]. 3.25 Crude Oil Options - The closing price of the main contract sc2511 was 461.9, down 29.4, with 3 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 72,598, an increase of 32,140 from last week, and the open interest was 45,021, an increase of 18,972 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 41.12 to 29.34 [39]. 3.26 Iron Ore Options - The closing price of the main contract i2511 was 811.5, up 7.0, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 130,400, an increase of 7,948 from last week, and the open interest was 267,334, an increase of 36,386 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 22.03 to 17.36 [40].
农产品期权策略早报:农产品期权-20250930
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 02:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows a mixed trend, with oilseeds and oils being weakly volatile, while some products like apples show a warming - up trend. Strategies mainly focus on constructing option combination strategies based on sellers to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various agricultural product futures have different price changes, such as a 0.13% decline in soybean No.1 (A2511), a 0.22% decline in soybean No.2 (B2511), and a 0.49% increase in peanuts (PK2511) [3]. 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Different option varieties have different volume and open - interest PCR values, which reflect the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market. For example, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.60, and the open - interest PCR is 0.49 [4]. 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different option varieties are analyzed. For instance, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4000, and the support level is 3900 [5]. 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties shows different trends. For example, the implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 11.265%, and the weighted implied volatility is 13.07% [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies for Different Product Categories 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1**: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **Soybean Meal**: Construct a bear - spread put option strategy, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Palm Oil**: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Peanuts**: Construct a bear - spread put option strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Pigs**: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long - spot + short - out - of - the - money call option strategy [12]. - **Eggs**: Construct a bear - spread put option strategy, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [13]. - **Apples**: Build a long - biased call + put option combination strategy [13]. - **Jujubes**: Build a long - biased wide - straddle option combination strategy and a long - spot + short - out - of - the - money call option strategy [14]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]. - **Cotton**: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long - spot + long - put + short - out - of - the - money call option strategy [15]. 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn**: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [15].
农产品期权策略早报:农产品期权-20250929
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows a mixed trend, with oilseeds and oils in a weak and volatile state, while some agricultural by - products and soft commodities are in a volatile or weak - consolidating situation. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various agricultural product futures show different price changes. For example, the latest price of soybean A2511 is 3,938, down 2 (-0.05%); the price of soybean meal M2511 is 2,903, down 13 (-0.45%); and the price of palm oil P2511 is 9,224, up 16 (0.17%) [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Different option varieties have different volume and open - interest PCR values and their changes. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean A is 0.42, down 0.06; the open - interest PCR is 0.47, up 0.02 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Each option variety has corresponding pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of soybean A is 4000, and the support level is 3900; the pressure level of soybean meal is 3100, and the support level is 3050 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility varies among different option varieties. For example, the weighted implied volatility of soybean A is 13.00, up 0.26; the weighted implied volatility of soybean meal is 16.37, up 0.45 [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies for Different Product Categories 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean A**: The implied volatility is below the historical average. The recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **Soybean Meal**: The implied volatility is below the historical average. Directional strategy: construct a bear - spread put option combination; volatility strategy: construct a short - biased call + put option combination; spot hedging: use a long collar strategy [10]. - **Palm Oil**: The implied volatility is falling below the historical average. Volatility strategy: construct a short - biased call + put option combination; spot hedging: use a long collar strategy [11]. - **Peanut**: The implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level. Directional strategy: construct a bear - spread put option combination; spot hedging: hold a long position in the spot + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [12]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pig**: The implied volatility is above the historical average. Volatility strategy: construct a short - biased call + put option combination; spot covered strategy: hold a long position in the spot + sell an out - of - the - money call option [12]. - **Egg**: The implied volatility is relatively high. Directional strategy: construct a bear - spread put option combination; volatility strategy: construct a short - biased call + put option combination [13]. - **Apple**: The implied volatility is above the historical average. Volatility strategy: construct a long - biased call + put option combination [13]. - **Jujube**: The implied volatility is rising above the historical average. Volatility strategy: construct a short - biased strangle option combination; spot covered hedging strategy: hold a long position in the spot + sell an out - of - the - money call option [14]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: The implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level. Volatility strategy: construct a short - biased call + put option combination; spot hedging: use a long collar strategy [14]. - **Cotton**: The implied volatility is at a low level. Volatility strategy: construct a short - biased call + put option combination; spot covered strategy: hold a long position in the spot + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [15]. 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn**: The implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level. Volatility strategy: construct a short - biased call + put option combination [15].
豆油期货日报-20250922
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 12:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean oil futures market showed an oscillating upward trend, but the reduction in positions of the main contract while prices rose indicates weakening capital enthusiasm for chasing high prices and limited rebound momentum. The high basis in the spot market provides bottom - support, yet macro factors such as crude oil price fluctuations and domestic oil inventory pressure restrict the upside potential. In the short - term, the futures price is expected to continue to trade within a range, and attention should be paid to capital movements and the process of spot inventory reduction [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 19, 2025, the soybean oil futures market showed an oscillating upward trend. The main contract y2601 closed at 8,328 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 331,651 lots and an open interest of 571,426 lots, a decrease of 3,418 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The total trading volume of soybean oil contracts was 378,156 lots, and the total open interest was 820,566 lots, a decrease of 3,207 lots compared to the previous day [4]. - **Related Market**: The soybean oil options traded 40,410 lots throughout the day, with an open interest of 110,114 lots, an increase of 2,676 lots in open interest, and 0 lots exercised [7]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of Grade - 1 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang on the day was 8,560 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the main contract v2601 was 8,336 yuan/ton, with a basis of 224 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - On September 18, commodity funds net - sold 3,000 lots of CBOT soybean futures contracts, 4,000 lots of corn futures contracts, 1,000 lots of wheat futures contracts, 500 lots of soybean meal futures contracts, and 3,000 lots of soybean oil futures contracts [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The soybean oil futures closed higher in an oscillating manner, but the reduction in positions of the main contract while prices rose indicates weak capital enthusiasm for chasing high prices and limited rebound momentum. The high basis in the spot market provides bottom - support, while macro factors such as crude oil price fluctuations and domestic oil inventory pressure restrict the upside potential. As the traditional consumption peak season in the fourth quarter approaches, the strength of demand recovery will be the key driver. In the short - term, the futures price is expected to continue to trade within a range, and attention should be paid to capital movements and the process of spot inventory reduction [10].
农产品期权策略早报:农产品期权-20250919
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows different trends across various sectors. Oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, while agricultural by - products, soft commodities, and grains maintain their respective oscillating patterns. It is recommended to construct option combination strategies mainly based on sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures show diverse price changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2511) is 3,898, with a rise of 6 and a rise - fall rate of 0.15%; the latest price of soybean No.2 (B2511) is 3,670, with no change [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open - interest PCR of different options vary. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.57 with a change of 0.01, and the open - interest PCR is 0.43 with a change of 0.01 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Each option has its corresponding pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure point of soybean No.1 is 3,950 and the support point is 3,900 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different options also shows differences. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 9.91%, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.19% with a change of - 0.98% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: The fundamental situation of US soybeans has a neutral - to - negative impact. The option strategy includes constructing a selling option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The daily提货量 of soybean meal has increased, and the basis has decreased. The option strategies include a bear spread strategy for direction and a selling option combination strategy for volatility, as well as a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is expected to increase. The option strategies include a selling option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts**: The price of peanuts shows a weak consolidation pattern. The option strategies include a bear spread strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pigs**: The supply pressure of pigs is large. The option strategies include a selling option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [11]. - **Eggs**: The inventory of laying hens is expected to increase. The option strategies include a bear spread strategy and a selling option combination strategy, but no spot hedging strategy [12]. - **Apples**: The consumption market of apples is warming up. The option strategies include a selling option combination strategy, but no spot hedging strategy [12]. - **Jujubes**: The inventory of jujubes has decreased slightly. The option strategies include a wide - straddle selling strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: The low inventory of domestic sugar supports the price, but the sales volume is lower than expected. The option strategies include a selling option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton**: The开机率 of spinning and weaving mills has changed, and the commercial inventory has decreased. The option strategies include a selling option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [14]. 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn and Starch**: The corn yield is expected to increase. The option strategies include a selling option combination strategy, but no spot hedging strategy [14].