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农产品期权策略早报:农产品期权-20250930
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 02:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows a mixed trend, with oilseeds and oils being weakly volatile, while some products like apples show a warming - up trend. Strategies mainly focus on constructing option combination strategies based on sellers to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various agricultural product futures have different price changes, such as a 0.13% decline in soybean No.1 (A2511), a 0.22% decline in soybean No.2 (B2511), and a 0.49% increase in peanuts (PK2511) [3]. 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Different option varieties have different volume and open - interest PCR values, which reflect the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market. For example, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.60, and the open - interest PCR is 0.49 [4]. 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different option varieties are analyzed. For instance, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4000, and the support level is 3900 [5]. 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties shows different trends. For example, the implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 11.265%, and the weighted implied volatility is 13.07% [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies for Different Product Categories 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1**: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **Soybean Meal**: Construct a bear - spread put option strategy, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Palm Oil**: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Peanuts**: Construct a bear - spread put option strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Pigs**: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long - spot + short - out - of - the - money call option strategy [12]. - **Eggs**: Construct a bear - spread put option strategy, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [13]. - **Apples**: Build a long - biased call + put option combination strategy [13]. - **Jujubes**: Build a long - biased wide - straddle option combination strategy and a long - spot + short - out - of - the - money call option strategy [14]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]. - **Cotton**: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long - spot + long - put + short - out - of - the - money call option strategy [15]. 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn**: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [15].
农产品期权策略早报:农产品期权-20250929
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows a mixed trend, with oilseeds and oils in a weak and volatile state, while some agricultural by - products and soft commodities are in a volatile or weak - consolidating situation. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various agricultural product futures show different price changes. For example, the latest price of soybean A2511 is 3,938, down 2 (-0.05%); the price of soybean meal M2511 is 2,903, down 13 (-0.45%); and the price of palm oil P2511 is 9,224, up 16 (0.17%) [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Different option varieties have different volume and open - interest PCR values and their changes. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean A is 0.42, down 0.06; the open - interest PCR is 0.47, up 0.02 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Each option variety has corresponding pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of soybean A is 4000, and the support level is 3900; the pressure level of soybean meal is 3100, and the support level is 3050 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility varies among different option varieties. For example, the weighted implied volatility of soybean A is 13.00, up 0.26; the weighted implied volatility of soybean meal is 16.37, up 0.45 [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies for Different Product Categories 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean A**: The implied volatility is below the historical average. The recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **Soybean Meal**: The implied volatility is below the historical average. Directional strategy: construct a bear - spread put option combination; volatility strategy: construct a short - biased call + put option combination; spot hedging: use a long collar strategy [10]. - **Palm Oil**: The implied volatility is falling below the historical average. Volatility strategy: construct a short - biased call + put option combination; spot hedging: use a long collar strategy [11]. - **Peanut**: The implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level. Directional strategy: construct a bear - spread put option combination; spot hedging: hold a long position in the spot + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [12]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pig**: The implied volatility is above the historical average. Volatility strategy: construct a short - biased call + put option combination; spot covered strategy: hold a long position in the spot + sell an out - of - the - money call option [12]. - **Egg**: The implied volatility is relatively high. Directional strategy: construct a bear - spread put option combination; volatility strategy: construct a short - biased call + put option combination [13]. - **Apple**: The implied volatility is above the historical average. Volatility strategy: construct a long - biased call + put option combination [13]. - **Jujube**: The implied volatility is rising above the historical average. Volatility strategy: construct a short - biased strangle option combination; spot covered hedging strategy: hold a long position in the spot + sell an out - of - the - money call option [14]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: The implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level. Volatility strategy: construct a short - biased call + put option combination; spot hedging: use a long collar strategy [14]. - **Cotton**: The implied volatility is at a low level. Volatility strategy: construct a short - biased call + put option combination; spot covered strategy: hold a long position in the spot + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [15]. 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn**: The implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level. Volatility strategy: construct a short - biased call + put option combination [15].
豆油期货日报-20250922
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 12:04
成文日期: 20250919 报告周期:日度 研究品种:豆瓣 研究员:漆建华(从业资格号:F03099134;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0017731) 油期货目报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 今日(20250919)豆油期货市场整体呈现震荡上涨走势。主力 合约 y2601 收于 8,328 元/吨,较上个交易日上涨 22 元/吨,成交量 为 331,651 手,持仓量为 571,426 手,持仓量减少 3,418 手。 图 1 豆油期货主力合约分时图 图片数据来源:WIND 1.2 品种价格 豆油合约总成交量 378,156 手,总持仓量 820,566 手,较前日减 少 3,207 手。 图 2 豆油期货各合约日行情数据 研究热线:028 6130 3163 邮箱:institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 | | | 商品名称合约名称 开盘价最高价最低价收盘价前结算价结算价储算价涨跌8跌跌1 成交量 | | | | | | | 行者都受益 曹玲妹 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...
农产品期权策略早报:农产品期权-20250919
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows different trends across various sectors. Oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, while agricultural by - products, soft commodities, and grains maintain their respective oscillating patterns. It is recommended to construct option combination strategies mainly based on sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures show diverse price changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2511) is 3,898, with a rise of 6 and a rise - fall rate of 0.15%; the latest price of soybean No.2 (B2511) is 3,670, with no change [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open - interest PCR of different options vary. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.57 with a change of 0.01, and the open - interest PCR is 0.43 with a change of 0.01 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Each option has its corresponding pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure point of soybean No.1 is 3,950 and the support point is 3,900 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different options also shows differences. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 9.91%, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.19% with a change of - 0.98% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: The fundamental situation of US soybeans has a neutral - to - negative impact. The option strategy includes constructing a selling option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The daily提货量 of soybean meal has increased, and the basis has decreased. The option strategies include a bear spread strategy for direction and a selling option combination strategy for volatility, as well as a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is expected to increase. The option strategies include a selling option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts**: The price of peanuts shows a weak consolidation pattern. The option strategies include a bear spread strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pigs**: The supply pressure of pigs is large. The option strategies include a selling option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [11]. - **Eggs**: The inventory of laying hens is expected to increase. The option strategies include a bear spread strategy and a selling option combination strategy, but no spot hedging strategy [12]. - **Apples**: The consumption market of apples is warming up. The option strategies include a selling option combination strategy, but no spot hedging strategy [12]. - **Jujubes**: The inventory of jujubes has decreased slightly. The option strategies include a wide - straddle selling strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: The low inventory of domestic sugar supports the price, but the sales volume is lower than expected. The option strategies include a selling option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton**: The开机率 of spinning and weaving mills has changed, and the commercial inventory has decreased. The option strategies include a selling option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [14]. 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn and Starch**: The corn yield is expected to increase. The option strategies include a selling option combination strategy, but no spot hedging strategy [14].
豆油期货日报-20250918
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 13:14
Report Overview - Report Date: September 16, 2025 [1] - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Henghao's soybean oil futures [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The soybean oil futures closed higher with a slight inflow of funds, indicating a slightly improved market sentiment. Despite significant inventory pressure at domestic ports and uncertainties in the US biodiesel policy, the high spot premium and the staged improvement in Malaysia's palm oil export data provide support. In the short term, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors and no clear single - sided driver, the futures price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern. Future focus should be on the final decision of the US EPA's biofuel policy, the progress of China - US trade negotiations, and the actual performance of pre - festival stocking demand in China [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - On September 16, 2025, the soybean oil futures market showed an overall volatile upward trend. The main contract y2601 closed at 8,418 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton or 0.74% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 297,565 lots, and the open interest was 597,730 lots, an increase of 1,298 lots [2]. 3.1.2 Variety Price - The total trading volume of soybean oil contracts was 350,578 lots, and the total open interest was 849,672 lots, an increase of 6,022 lots from the previous day [4]. 3.1.3 Related Market - The daily trading volume of soybean oil options was 63,696 lots, and the open interest was 105,582 lots, an increase of 9,804 lots. The number of exercised options was 0 [7]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of Grade - 1 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang on the day was 8,640 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the main contract v2601 was 8,418 yuan/ton, with a basis of 222 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - On September 15, commodity funds net - sold 3,000 lots of CBOT soybean futures contracts, 12,000 lots of corn futures contracts, 500 lots of soybean meal futures contracts, and 1,000 lots of soybean oil futures contracts, while net - buying 1,500 lots of wheat futures contracts [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The soybean oil futures are expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term due to the mix of bullish and bearish factors. Key factors to watch include the US EPA's biofuel policy decision, China - US trade negotiation progress, and domestic pre - festival stocking demand [10].
农产品期权策略早报-20250918
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 02:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows a mixed trend, with oilseeds and oils, and some agricultural by - products in a weak and volatile state, while soft commodities like sugar and cotton also present different degrees of weak fluctuations [2]. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various agricultural product futures show different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the price of soybean No.1 (A2511) decreased by 0.49% to 3,895, with a trading volume of 12.17 million lots and an open interest of 22.65 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR - Different option varieties have different volume - to - open - interest PCR values and their changes. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.55 with a change of 0.13, and the open - interest PCR is 0.42 with a change of 0.01 [4]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - Each option variety has corresponding pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 3,950 and the support level is 3,900 [5]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties also varies. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 10.555%, and the weighted implied volatility is 13.17% with a change of - 0.34% [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations 3.3.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: The fundamentals of US soybeans have a neutral - to - negative impact. The implied volatility of soybean No.1 options remains at a relatively high level compared to historical averages. Directional strategies are not recommended, while a volatility strategy of selling a neutral call + put option combination is suggested, along with a spot long - hedging strategy of a long collar [7]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: For soybean meal, the daily提货 volume increased slightly, the basis decreased week - on - week, and the inventory increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year. A bear - spread strategy for put options and a volatility strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination are recommended, along with a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The palm oil inventory in Malaysia reached a 20 - month high. A volatility strategy of selling a bullish call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended for palm oil [10]. - **Peanuts**: The price of peanuts showed a weak consolidation pattern. A bear - spread strategy for put options and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [11]. 3.3.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pigs**: The supply pressure in September is large, and the market is in a weak consolidation state. A volatility strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination and a covered call strategy for spot are recommended [11]. - **Eggs**: The inventory of laying hens is expected to increase. A bear - spread strategy for put options and a volatility strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination are recommended [12]. - **Apples**: The consumption market of apples is gradually warming up. A volatility strategy of selling a bullish call + put option combination is recommended [12]. - **Jujubes**: The inventory of jujubes decreased slightly. A volatility strategy of selling a bearish strangle option combination and a covered call strategy for spot hedging are recommended [13]. 3.3.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: The low inventory of domestic sugar supports the price, but the sales volume in August was lower than expected. A volatility strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [13]. - **Cotton**: The开机率 of spinning and weaving factories and the commercial inventory of cotton have different changes. A volatility strategy of selling a bullish call + put option combination and a covered call strategy for spot are recommended [14]. 3.3.4 Cereal Options - **Corn and Starch**: The corn production is expected to increase. A volatility strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination is recommended for corn [14].
豆油期货日报-20250912
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 09:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The soybean oil futures market experienced a significant decline, with the main contract showing a notable drop and a significant reduction in open interest, indicating a growing sentiment of capital leaving the market. The sudden negative news regarding the US biodiesel policy and the high inventory levels at domestic ports jointly pressured the market. Despite the support from the high premium of the spot market, the fundamental bearish situation remains difficult to change. In the short term, the market lacks effective positive drivers, and it is expected that the futures price will maintain a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the MPOB and USDA reports and the actual performance of pre - holiday stocking demand [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 10, 2025, the soybean oil futures market showed a downward trend. The main contract y2601 closed at 8,256 yuan/ton, down 162 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change rate of - 1.92%. The trading volume was 448,885 lots, and the open interest was 611,919 lots, a decrease of 19,824 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The total trading volume of soybean oil contracts was 512,750 lots, and the total open interest was 858,927 lots, a decrease of 21,352 lots from the previous day [4]. - **Related Market**: The soybean oil options traded 34,460 lots throughout the day, with an open interest of 87,808 lots, an increase of 2,445 lots, and 0 lots exercised [7]. 3.2 Spot Market The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang on the day was 8,510 yuan/ton, the settlement price of the main contract y2601 was 8,322 yuan/ton, and the basis was 188 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors On September 9, commodity funds net - sold 1,000 lots of CBOT soybean futures contracts, 3,500 lots of corn futures contracts, 1,000 lots of wheat futures contracts, net - bought 4,000 lots of soybean meal futures contracts, and net - sold 5,500 lots of soybean oil futures contracts [9].
商品期权周报-20250901
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 05:31
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - In the past week, trading volume and implied volatility of commodity options decreased in almost all sectors. In the energy and chemical sector, the trading volume of p-xylene at the end of its option cycle significantly boosted the trading enthusiasm of the entire sector. The option trading volume of glass and soda ash returned to a high level. Given the pressure in the futures market, using options to capture trading opportunities is relatively safe. [5] - Due to the impact of interest rate cuts, the implied volatility of precious metal options rose in direct proportion to the futures price, and the skewness was at a relatively high level. Attention could be paid to the signal of volatility decline for right-side trading. [5] - In the agricultural products sector, the long position of cotton call options increased, and the trading volume of put options increased significantly. The volatility skewness declined from a high level. Consider selling at-the-money call options and buying out-of-the-money call options for protection. [5] Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - The trading volume and implied volatility of commodity options decreased in almost all sectors last week. The end-of-cycle trading volume of p-xylene in the energy and chemical sector boosted the trading enthusiasm of the entire sector. The option trading volume of glass and soda ash returned to a high level. The futures market still faced pressure, and using options to capture trading opportunities was relatively safe. [5] - Affected by interest rate cuts, the implied volatility of precious metal options rose in direct proportion to the futures price, and the skewness was at a relatively high level. Attention could be paid to the signal of volatility decline for right-side trading. [5] - In agricultural products, the long position of cotton call options increased, and the trading volume of put options increased significantly. The volatility skewness declined from a high level. Consider selling at-the-money call options and buying out-of-the-money call options for protection. [5] 2. Market Data 2.1 Market Overview - Provided the quantitative data of commodity options, including the volatility, 60-day quantile, skewness, and 60-day quantile of various commodities such as corn, soybean meal, and palm oil [13]. 2.2 - 2.55 Individual Option Market Data - Detailed market data for various options were presented, including contract information, trading volume, open interest, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility, historical volatility, and skewness. For example, in the corn option market, the trading volume and open interest of call and put options, as well as their changes compared to the previous week, were provided [14][15][16].
原油、碳酸锂等期权:隐含波动率多降,成交量降24.45%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-25 12:58
Group 1 - The implied volatility of various commodity options has decreased, indicating a cooling market sentiment [1] - As of the latest closing, the implied volatility for crude oil options is 28.91%, down 4.35% from the previous week [1] - Lithium carbonate options implied volatility stands at 42.69%, a decrease of 5.54% week-over-week [1] Group 2 - The trading volume of commodity options has significantly dropped by 24.45% compared to the previous week [1] - Open interest in commodity options has also decreased by 24.29% week-over-week, reflecting a notable decline in market activity [1] - The implied volatility for lithium carbonate and soda ash options has fallen by over 4 percentage points, currently positioned in the historical 60%-70% and 30%-40% percentile levels, respectively [1]
商品期权周报:隐波下降,市场震荡回落-20250825
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 06:43
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the trading volume of commodity options decreased significantly by 24.45% compared to last week, and the open interest decreased by 24.29%. The market sentiment of commodity options cooled significantly, and the implied volatility of options generally declined [2][4]. - The implied volatility of lithium carbonate and soda ash options decreased by more than 4 percentage points compared to last Friday and are currently at the 60%-70% and 30%-40% historical quantile levels respectively [2][4]. 3. Summary of Relevant Content Volatility - As of Friday's close, the implied volatility of crude oil options was 28.91%, a decrease of 4.35% from a week ago; lithium carbonate options was 42.69%, a decrease of 5.54%; rebar options was 11.35%, a decrease of 0.46%; soda ash options was 18.20%, a decrease of 1.48%; gold options was 15.51%, a decrease of 0.25%; silver options was 18.06%, a decrease of 0.21%; palm oil options was 15.61%, an increase of 0.14%; soybean oil options was 21.60%, an increase of 2.06%; rapeseed oil options was 19.84%, a decrease of 0.35%; rubber options was 12.69%, a decrease of 2.85% [1][4]. Figures - There are multiple figures in the report, including those showing the trading volume and open interest, implied volatility and historical volatility, skewness structure, and term structure of various commodity options such as crude oil, lithium carbonate, rebar, soda ash, gold, silver, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and rubber [5][13][20].