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商品期权周报:隐波下降,市场震荡回落-20250825
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 06:43
商品期权周报 I 2025/08/18—2025/08/22 隐波下降,市场震荡回落 本周摘要 波动率方面,截至本周五收盘,原油期权隐含波动率 28.91%,较 一周前下降-4.35%。碳酸锂期权隐含波动率 42.69%,较一周前下 降-5.54%。螺纹钢期权隐含波动率 11.35%,较一周前下降- 0.46%。纯碱期权隐含波动率 18.20%,较一周前下降-1.48%。黄 金期权隐含波动率 15.51%,较一周前下降-0.25%,较一周前下降- 1.48%。白银期权隐含波动率 18.06%,较一周前下降-0.21%。棕 榈油期权隐含波动率 15.61%,较一周前上升 0.14%。豆油期权隐 含波动率 21.60%,较一周前上升 2.06%。菜油期权隐含波动率 19.84%,较一周前下降-0.35%。橡胶期权隐含波动率 12.69%,较 一周前下降-2.85%。 本周商品期权成交量较上周大幅下降 24.45%,持仓量较上周下 降 24.29%。本周商品期权市场情绪较上周显著降温,期权隐含 波动率普遍下降。碳酸锂、纯碱期权隐含波动率较上周五下降均 超 4 个百分点,目前分别处于历史 60%-70%,30%-40 ...
农产品期权策略早报-20250819
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows different trends: oilseeds and oils are in a strong - side oscillation, oils and by - products maintain an oscillatory trend, soft commodities like sugar have a slight oscillation, cotton's bullish rise has declined, and grains such as corn and starch are in a weak and narrow - range consolidation [2]. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various agricultural product futures are presented, including soybeans, soybean meal, palm oil, etc. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2511) is 4,056 with no change, and its trading volume is 8.83 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different agricultural product options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 option is 0.32, with a change of - 0.14 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different agricultural product options are given, which are determined by the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4500, and the support level is 4100 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different agricultural product options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 11.985%, and the weighted implied volatility is 14.43% with a change of - 1.72% [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: The fundamentals of soybeans are affected by factors such as USDA's adjustment of planting area and yield, and Trump's call for China to buy soybeans. The option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The fundamentals of soybean meal are related to the monthly purchase volume. The option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The fundamentals of oils are affected by USDA's reports and India's inventory replenishment. The option strategies include constructing a bullish call spread strategy, a long - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts**: The fundamentals of peanuts are related to the spot price, import volume, and oil mill operation rate. The option strategies include constructing a bearish put spread strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.2 By - product Options - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is relatively loose, and the demand is stimulated by low prices. The option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [11]. - **Eggs**: The inventory of laying hens is expected to increase. The option strategies include constructing a bearish put spread strategy and a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Apples**: The cold - storage inventory of apples is at a low level. The option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Red Dates**: The inventory of red dates is decreasing, and the market is improving. The option strategies include constructing a bullish call spread strategy, a long - biased wide - straddle option combination strategy, and a covered call strategy for spot [13]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: The fundamentals of sugar are affected by Brazil's sugar production data. The option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton**: The fundamentals of cotton are related to the operating rates of spinning and weaving mills and global production. The option strategies include constructing a long - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [14]. 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn and Starch**: The fundamentals of corn are affected by USDA's planting area and yield adjustment. The option strategies include constructing a bearish put spread strategy and a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [14]. 3.6 Option Charts - Charts of various agricultural product options are provided, including price trend charts, volume and open interest charts, implied volatility charts, etc., to visually display the market conditions of different agricultural product options [15][34][53].
商品期权周报-20250817
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-17 12:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, the trading volume of commodity options increased slightly, mainly due to the increment brought by the rising volatility of the agricultural products sector. Meanwhile, the trading volume of the non - ferrous and new energy sectors decreased along with the decline of implied volatility. The implied volatility of non - ferrous sector options is at a relatively low level recently, and buying options for price reversal trading can be considered [5]. - The options of contracts such as soybean meal, corn, starch, iron ore, liquefied gas, polypropylene, PVC, plastic, palm oil, soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean oil, styrene, ethylene glycol, eggs, live pigs, and log 509 are about to expire. Attention should be paid to the end - of - month risks when changing contracts [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of commodity options increased slightly last week, mainly due to the increment from the agricultural products sector. The trading volume of non - ferrous and new energy sectors decreased, and their implied volatility also declined. The implied volatility of non - ferrous sector options is at a recent low [5]. - The options of certain contracts are about to expire, and attention should be paid to the end - of - month risks [5]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of the overall market this week was 8,808,344.8, with a week - on - week increase of 0.17%. The open interest was 8,996,228, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.27%. Among them, the trading volume of the agricultural products sector increased by 2.45%, that of the energy and chemical sector increased by 0.17%, that of the black sector increased by 0.4%, and that of the precious metals sector increased by 1.26%. The trading volume of the non - ferrous and new energy sectors decreased by 1.82%. The open interest of the agricultural products sector decreased by 0.1%, that of the energy and chemical sector decreased by 0.55%, that of the black sector decreased by 0.19%, and that of the non - ferrous and new energy sectors increased by 0.41% [6]. 3.2.2 - 3.2.55 Various Option Market Data - For each type of option (such as corn, soybean meal, etc.), detailed data on trading volume, open interest, volume PCR, open interest PCR, at - the - money volatility, HV - 10 days, HV - 20 days, and Skew are provided, including data for this week, last week, and their changes [12 - 44]. 3.3 Chart Analysis No relevant content provided.
商品期权数据日报-20250814
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 07:36
Report Title - The report is titled "Commodity Option Data Daily Report" [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report presents historical volatility, daily fluctuations, and other data of various commodities, and recommends option trading strategies based on the relative levels of commodity volatility [2][4][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Commodity Volatility Data - **Historical Volatility and Daily Fluctuations**: Data on historical volatility (HV20, HV40, HV60, HV120) and daily price fluctuations of multiple commodities such as Shanghai Aluminum, Shanghai Copper, and Shanghai Zinc are provided For example, Shanghai Aluminum's main price is 20790 with a 0.63% daily increase, and its HV20 is 7.71% [4] Implied Volatility Data - **主力平值IV and Its Quantile**: Implied volatility data, including the main at - the - money implied volatility (IV) and its quantile, are given for various commodities For instance, the main at - the - money IV of butadiene rubber is 74% with a quantile of 49% [5] Strategy Recommendations - **Selling Strangle for Lithium Carbonate**: Due to the relatively high volatility of lithium carbonate, it is recommended to sell a strangle combination (sell LC2509C80000 + sell LC2509P75000) on July 24, 2025, and use dynamic futures hedging, then close the position when volatility decreases [9] - **Buying Strangle for Iron Ore, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: Given the relatively low volatility of iron ore, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, it is recommended to buy strangle combinations for these commodities on June 3, 2025, use dynamic futures hedging, and close the position when volatility increases For example, for iron ore, buy I2509C690 + buy I2509P700 [9]
商品期权日报-20250813
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 02:18
le] and and the see and the seems of the seems of the seems of the seems of the seems of the seems of the seems of the seems of the seems of the seen and the seen and the seen 2025 年 8 月 12 日 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0018397 张银 zhangyin2@gtht.com 1. 期权策略 1.1 豆油看涨期权成交量上升,持仓量有所下降,但偏度重心有所回落,可考虑买入虚值看涨期权同 时卖出虚值看跌期权,适当进行对冲,构建做多策略。 2 表 1: 期货市场统计 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 主力成交量 | 变化 | 主力持仓量 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | c2509 | . 2260 | -2 | 232359 | -35998 | 605565 | -32610 | | 豆粕 | m2601 | 30 ...
农产品期权策略早报-20250813
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The agricultural products options market shows different trends. Oilseeds and oils are in a strong and volatile state, while other categories such as agricultural by - products, soft commodities, and grains have various forms of volatile or weak market conditions. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview of Underlying Futures - Different agricultural product options have different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, rapeseed meal (RM2511) had a significant price increase of 6.13% with a price of 2,736, while eggs (JD2510) decreased by 0.47% to 3,197.00 [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different options vary, which can be used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and whether there is a turning point in the underlying market. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean meal (M2511) is 0.76, and the open interest PCR is 0.59 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the maximum open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of different option underlyings are obtained. For example, the pressure level of soybean (A2511) is 4,300, and the support level is 4,050 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different options shows different trends and relationships with historical volatility. For example, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal (RM2511) has a relatively large increase, with the weighted implied volatility increasing by 4.45% to 31.65% [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybeans (A2511)**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [7]. - **Soybean Meal (M2511)**: Similar to soybeans, with specific option contracts recommended [9]. - **Palm Oil (P2510)**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a long - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [10]. - **Peanuts (PK2510)**: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread combination strategy of put options; Volatility strategy: None; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a long spot position + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [11]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pigs (LH2511)**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - covered strategy: Hold a long spot position + sell out - of - the - money call options [11]. - **Eggs (JD2510)**: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread combination strategy of put options; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. - **Apples (AP2510)**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. - **Jujubes (CJ2601)**: Directional strategy: Construct a bullish spread combination strategy of call options; Volatility strategy: Construct a long - biased wide - straddle option combination strategy; Spot covered - hedging strategy: Hold a long spot position + sell out - of - the - money call options [13]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar (SR2511)**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [13]. - **Cotton (CF2511)**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a long - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot covered strategy: Hold a long spot position + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [14]. 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn (C2511)**: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread combination strategy of put options; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: None [14].
商品期权周报-20250804
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 05:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading enthusiasm in the commodity options market has declined, with implied volatility falling along with trading volume. The actual volatility of most varieties remains at a relatively high level, and the decline rate of implied volatility is gradually slowing down. Additionally, the fluctuations in futures prices and the spread of hot - spot varieties have increased commodity arbitrage opportunities [5]. - The near - month options contracts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will expire on Thursday. The trading volume and open - interest ratios of the call options of the double - silicon varieties continue to increase, and the skew is also rising in a high - level oscillation. It is advisable to consider buying a bull spread portfolio for short - term speculation [5]. - The skew center of the black sector options has declined, and the implied volatility is at a high level, but the premium space compared with the actual volatility is limited. One can consider selling out - of - the - money call options and buying out - of - the - money put options for a skew regression arbitrage strategy, while paying attention to appropriate Delta - neutral hedging. The arbitrage space for rebar options is relatively large [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of the overall market decreased by 0.45%, while the open interest increased by 0.21%. Among different sectors, the trading volume of agricultural products increased by 0.68%, energy and chemical decreased by 0.19%, black decreased by 0.14%, precious metals decreased by 2.76%, and non - ferrous and new energy decreased by 0.98%. The open interest of agricultural products increased by 0.09%, energy and chemical increased by 0.29%, black increased by 0.21%, precious metals increased by 0.48%, and non - ferrous and new energy increased by 0.25% [6]. 3.2 Commodity - Specific Option Data - **Corn Options**: The trading volume and open interest of call and put options showed different changes. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew also decreased [18][19]. - **Soybean Meal Options**: The trading volume decreased, while the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew also decreased [20]. - **Rapeseed Meal Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew also decreased [22]. - **Palm Oil Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased significantly [23]. - **Soybean Oil Options**: The trading volume and open interest showed mixed changes. The implied volatility of at - the - money options increased slightly, and the skew decreased [24]. - **Rapeseed Oil Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased [25]. - **Peanut Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased slightly, and the skew increased [26]. - **Yellow Soybean No. 1 Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew increased significantly [27]. - **Yellow Soybean No. 2 Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew increased [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [29]. - **Styrene Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [30]. - **Sugar Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased significantly [31]. - **Cotton Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [32]. - **PTA Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [33]. - **PX Options**: The trading volume and open interest showed significant changes. The implied volatility of at - the - money options had some fluctuations, and the skew had some changes [34]. - **Caustic Soda Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [35]. - **Rubber Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased slightly. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [36]. - **BR Rubber Options**: The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased [37]. - **Polyethylene Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased [38]. - **Polypropylene Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased [39]. - **Methanol Options**: The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [40]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas Options**: The trading volume decreased slightly, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased [41]. - **PVC Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [42]. - **Crude Oil Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options increased slightly, and the skew decreased [43]. - **Iron Ore Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased significantly [44].
农产品期权策略早报-20250731
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:47
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the agricultural products options industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural products options market shows different trends across various sectors. Oilseeds and oils are in a relatively strong and volatile state, while other sectors such as by - products, soft commodities, and grains have their own specific trends like range - bound trading or short - term weakness [2]. - The recommended strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various agricultural product futures show different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the price of soybean No.1 (A2509) dropped by 0.63% to 4,126, with a trading volume of 11.89 million lots and a decrease of 1.99 million lots compared to the previous period, and an open interest of 12.87 million lots with a decrease of 0.47 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Different option varieties have different volume and open interest PCR values and their changes, which can be used to analyze the strength and turning points of the underlying asset market. For example, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.38, a decrease of 0.16, and the open interest PCR is 0.39, a decrease of 0.01 [4]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: From the perspective of the maximum open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of the underlying assets are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,300 and the support level is 4,100 [5]. - **Implied Volatility**: Each option variety has different implied volatility values, changes, and differences compared to historical volatility, which can be used to measure the market's expectation of future price fluctuations. For example, the weighted implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 12.36%, a decrease of 0.72% [6]. 3.3 Strategies and Recommendations - **Oilseeds and Oils Options** - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: The USDA July report adjusted the supply - demand balance of soybeans. The market of soybean No.1 shows a pattern of small - range consolidation with pressure above. Recommended strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The purchase volume of soybean meal shows a certain pattern. The market of soybean meal shows a pattern of weak consolidation with support below followed by a rebound and then a decline. Recommended strategies are similar to those of soybean No.1 [9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The palm oil market is affected by export and production factors, showing a pattern of long - position high - level consolidation. Recommended strategies include constructing a long - biased short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, showing a pattern of weak consolidation under bearish pressure. Recommended strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy of put options and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **By - product Options** - **Pigs**: The pig market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, showing a pattern of small - range consolidation under bearish pressure. Recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased short call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [11]. - **Eggs**: The egg market is affected by factors such as weather and supply and demand, showing a pattern of weak consolidation with pressure above. Recommended strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy of put options and a short - biased short call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Apples**: The apple market is affected by factors such as production and inventory, showing a pattern of gradual rebound with pressure above. Recommended strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube market shows a pattern of rebound and then decline with pressure above. Recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased wide - straddle option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Soft Commodity Options** - **Sugar**: The sugar market shows a pattern of rebound after a decline with support below. Recommended strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton**: The cotton market shows a short - term weak pattern. Recommended strategies include constructing a long - biased short call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [14]. - **Grain Options** - **Corn and Starch**: The corn market shows a pattern of weak decline with pressure above. Recommended strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy of put options and a short - biased short call + put option combination strategy [14].
农产品期权策略早报-20250723
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 00:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector includes beans, oils, agricultural by - products, soft commodities, grains, and others. Oilseeds and oils show a relatively strong and volatile trend, while oils, agricultural by - products maintain a volatile market. Soft commodity sugar rebounds and fluctuates upward, cotton shows a bullish trend, and grains such as corn and starch are weakly and narrowly consolidated. It is recommended to construct option combination strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product options have various price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of soybean A2509 is 4,241, with a rise of 28 and a rise rate of 0.66%, trading volume of 14.61 million lots (a decrease of 3.65 million lots), and open interest of 18.11 million lots (an increase of 0.81 million lots) [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Quantity and Position PCR - The quantity and position PCR of different option varieties vary, which can be used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean A is 0.23 (a decrease of 0.11), and the position PCR is 0.48 (an increase of 0.02) [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the maximum open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of different option varieties are determined. For example, the pressure level of soybean A is 4,500, and the support level is 4,100 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties also shows differences. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean A is 10.525, the weighted implied volatility is 11.72 (an increase of 0.33), and the difference between implied and historical volatility is - 0.40 [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean A and B**: The USDA July report adjusted the supply - demand data of US soybeans. Soybean A showed a rebound after a decline in June and July. The implied volatility of soybean A options is at a relatively high level, the position PCR is below 0.70, and the pressure and support levels are 4,500 and 4,100 respectively. It is recommended to construct a neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The purchase volume of soybean meal from March to September is different. Soybean meal showed a rebound after a decline in June and July. The implied volatility of soybean meal options is slightly above the historical average, the position PCR is around 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 3,450 and 2,900 respectively. Similar to soybean A, it is recommended to construct a neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8][9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The export and production data of Malaysian palm oil in June are different. Palm oil showed a bullish trend. The implied volatility of palm oil options is decreasing to below the historical average, the position PCR is around 1.00, and the pressure and support levels are 10,000 and 8,000 respectively. It is recommended to construct a bullish call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts**: The price of peanuts in Henan and the northeast shows different trends. Peanuts showed a weak consolidation trend. The implied volatility of peanut options is at a relatively low level, the position PCR is below 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 9,000 and 7,200 respectively. It is recommended to construct a bearish spread strategy for direction and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pigs**: The domestic pig price showed a decline last week. Pigs showed a weak trend after a rebound. The implied volatility of pig options is above the historical average, the position PCR is below 0.50, and the pressure and support levels are 18,000 and 13,800 respectively. It is recommended to construct a bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a covered call strategy for spot [11]. - **Eggs**: The domestic egg price rebounded last week. Eggs showed a weak bearish trend. The implied volatility of egg options is at a relatively high level, the position PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 3,500 and 2,800 respectively. It is recommended to construct a bearish spread strategy for direction and a bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12]. - **Apples**: The inventory of apples in cold storage is at a low level. Apples showed a weak rebound trend. The implied volatility of apple options is below the historical average, the position PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 8,900 and 7,000 respectively. It is recommended to construct a neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12]. - **Red Dates**: The inventory of red dates decreased slightly. Red dates showed a rebound and then a decline. The implied volatility of red date options is decreasing and is above the average, the position PCR is below 0.50, and the pressure and support levels are 14,000 and 8,600 respectively. It is recommended to construct a bearish strangle option combination strategy for volatility and a covered call strategy for spot [13]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased. Sugar showed a rebound after a decline. The implied volatility of sugar options is at a relatively low level, the position PCR is around 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 6,100 and 5,700 respectively. It is recommended to construct a neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton**: The开机 rate of spinning and weaving factories decreased, and the commercial inventory of cotton decreased. Cotton showed a rebound trend. The implied volatility of cotton options is decreasing and is at a low level, the position PCR is below 1.00, and the pressure and support levels are 14,000 and 13,000 respectively. It is recommended to construct a bullish spread strategy for direction, a bullish call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a covered call strategy for spot [14]. 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn and Starch**: The spot price of corn showed a weak trend, and the futures market was also weak. Corn showed a bearish trend. The implied volatility of corn options is at a relatively low level, the position PCR is around 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 2,400 and 2,240 respectively. It is recommended to construct a bearish spread strategy for direction and a bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility [14].
农产品期权策略早报-20250715
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 06:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows different trends. Oilseeds and oils have weakened, while some agricultural and sideline products are in a volatile state. Soft commodities like sugar continue to be weak, cotton is rising moderately, and grains such as corn and starch are in a narrow - range weak consolidation. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Information on the latest price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change of various agricultural product futures is presented, including soybeans, soybean meal, palm oil, etc. [3] 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume - Open Interest PCR - Details of the trading volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, trading volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of different option varieties are provided [4]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, pressure point offsets, support points, support point offsets, maximum call option open interest, and maximum put option open interest of each option variety are listed [5]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - Data on the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, historical volatility, and implied - historical volatility difference of various option varieties are given [6]. 3.3 Strategies and Recommendations for Different Option Types 3.3.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybeans (Bean 1 and Bean 2)**: Based on the USDA July report, the inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans in the 25/26 season has increased. Bean 1 has shown a weakening trend recently. Directional strategies suggest constructing a bear spread of put options; volatility strategies recommend selling a neutral combination of call and put options; and spot long - hedging strategies propose a long collar strategy [7]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The fundamentals of soybean meal show that domestic trading has slightly improved but remains weak. The market has shown a weak rebound and then a decline. For soybean meal, volatility strategies suggest selling a bearish combination of call and put options, and spot long - hedging strategies use a long collar strategy [9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The MPOB June report indicates that Malaysian palm oil exports are lower than expected. Palm oil has shown a bullish trend. Volatility strategies recommend selling a bullish combination of call and put options, and spot long - hedging strategies use a long collar strategy [10]. - **Peanuts**: The fundamentals show that peanut prices are weak, and the downstream consumption is also weak. Directional strategies suggest constructing a bear spread of put options, and spot long - hedging strategies use a long collar strategy [11]. 3.3.2 Agricultural and Sideline Products Options - **Pigs**: The domestic pig price has stabilized after a decline. The market has shown a rebound and then a slight consolidation. Volatility strategies recommend selling a neutral combination of call and put options, and spot long - covered strategies suggest holding a long position in the spot and selling out - of - the - money call options [11]. - **Eggs**: The inventory of laying hens is increasing. The market has shown a weak downward trend. Directional strategies suggest constructing a bear spread of put options, and volatility strategies recommend selling a bearish combination of call and put options [12]. - **Apples**: The inventory of apples in cold storage is at a low level in recent years. The market has shown a weak rebound. Volatility strategies recommend selling a neutral combination of call and put options [12]. - **Jujubes**: The inventory of jujubes has decreased slightly, but the consumption is in the off - season. Volatility strategies recommend selling a bearish wide - straddle option combination, and spot covered - hedging strategies suggest holding a long position in the spot and selling out - of - the - money call options [13]. 3.3.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar exports have increased. The market has shown a rebound after a decline. Volatility strategies recommend selling a neutral combination of call and put options, and spot long - hedging strategies use a long collar strategy [13]. - **Cotton**: The operating rates of spinning and weaving factories have declined, and the commercial inventory of cotton has decreased. The market has shown a rebound. Directional strategies suggest constructing a bull spread of call options, and volatility strategies recommend selling a neutral combination of call and put options, and spot covered strategies suggest holding a long position in the spot and selling out - of - the - money call options [14]. 3.3.4 Grains Options - **Corn and Starch**: The corn market is bearish due to the impact of imported corn auctions. The market has shown a downward trend. Directional strategies suggest constructing a bear spread of put options, and volatility strategies recommend selling a bearish combination of call and put options [14]. 3.4 Charts - Charts of various option varieties, including price trends, trading volume and open interest, open interest PCR, implied volatility, historical volatility cones, and pressure and support levels, are provided for different option types such as soybean options, soybean meal options, etc. [17][37][55]