Variety Viewpoints Stock Index Futures - On August 21, A-share market's three major indexes showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a ten-year high, closing up 0.13% at 3771.10 points; the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.06% at 11919.76 points; and the ChiNext Index down 0.47% at 2595.47 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2424.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.58 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index had a strong oscillation on August 21, closing at 4288.07, up 16.68 compared to the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On August 21, the weighted index of coke remained weak, closing at 1661.0, down 14.7 compared to the previous day [3] - On August 21, the weighted index of coking coal was weak, closing at 1140.6 yuan, down 14.0 compared to the previous day [4] - For coke, due to an approaching major event, there are expectations of production limitations at coking plants in East China. After the seventh price increase, coking profits have improved slightly, and daily coking production has increased slightly. Overall coke inventory is decreasing, and traders' purchasing willingness is strong. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream molten iron production remains at a high level during the off - season [5] - For coking coal, the output of coking coal mines has decreased. The spot auction market has performed well, with prices mostly rising, and terminal inventory remaining flat. The total coking coal inventory has decreased month - on - month, and the decline in production - end inventory has narrowed. It is likely to continue destocking in the short term [5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Recently, the increase in refining profit has boosted the demand for raw sugar. The market expects that China's strong import pace in July may continue for at least the next few months. Supported by these factors, US sugar oscillated higher on Wednesday. Due to the start of stockpiling for the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, the spot price has been firm recently. Affected by the rise in US sugar and the increase in spot price, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract oscillated upward on Thursday. However, due to the large short - term increase, it oscillated and adjusted slightly lower at night. In July 2025, China's imports of syrup and premixes totaled 159,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,600 tons, but a month - on - month increase, hitting a new high for the year [5] Rubber - Thailand's meteorological agency warned of possible floods from August 21 to 26. Supported by concerns about bad weather in major rubber - producing areas, Shanghai rubber oscillated slightly higher on Thursday. At night, it fluctuated slightly. According to LMC Automotive, in July 2025, the seasonally adjusted annualized sales volume of global light vehicles rose to 94 million vehicles per year. Year - on - year, the global market sales volume increased by more than 6% to 7.46 million vehicles [6] Soybean Meal - In the international market on August 21, CBOT soybean futures rose sharply due to short - covering and bargain - hunting. The November contract of US soybeans closed at 1055 cents per bushel. During the Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour on Wednesday, the inspection team found that the soybean outlook in western Iowa was much better than average. Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) said that Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to be 8.9 million tons, higher than the previous week's forecast of 8.8 million tons [6] - In the domestic market on August 21, the M2601 main contract closed at 3113 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.49%. Chinese importers have not purchased new - crop US soybeans. All the purchased soybean orders for the fourth quarter are from South America. The increase in Brazilian soybean costs and the non - purchase of new - crop US soybeans have raised concerns about a tightening of later - stage soybean meal supply, which has significantly supported forward prices. However, currently, the supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, oil refineries' operating rates are high, which has promoted the recovery of soybean meal inventory. The abundant supply has put pressure on soybean meal prices. Future focus should be on the weather in the producing areas and soybean import situation [8] Live Pigs - On August 21, live pig futures prices oscillated weakly. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13765 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.07%. Currently, it is the off - season for pork consumption. High - temperature weather has led to weak terminal demand. The order volume of major pig enterprises is low, and the operating level remains low, which has put some pressure on prices. In August, production capacity is being realized intensively, the supply of suitable - weight pigs has increased, and the monthly slaughter plans of group pig enterprises have increased. Currently, the live pig market is in a situation of abundant supply and demand. Future attention should be paid to policy regulation trends, pig slaughter rhythm, and weight changes [8] Palm Oil - On August 21, palm oil futures continued to oscillate slightly at a high level. The main contract P2601 closed with a small upper - shadowed negative line, with a high of 9636, a low of 9480, and a closing price of 9500, down 0.57% from the previous day. According to foreign media reports, data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) on Thursday showed that despite increased production and accelerated exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of June decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons. As the world's largest palm oil producer and exporter, Indonesia's palm oil exports in June reached 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month surge of 35.4% driven by the soaring demand from major buyers such as China and India. In June, the production of crude palm oil increased by 15.8% month - on - month to 4.82 million tons; the total production (including palm kernel oil) in the first half of this year reached 27.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5% [9] Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper showed a narrow - range oscillation pattern. Fundamentally, the arrival of domestic refineries has increased, and the supply pattern of electrolytic copper has turned abundant. However, as the seasonal off - season ends, downstream demand is expected to pick up. At the macro level, the expectation of a Fed rate hike in September has decreased, which has supported copper prices. In the short term, Shanghai copper may continue to oscillate in the range of 78,000 - 79,500 yuan. If it breaks through the key resistance level of 79,000 yuan, it may open up an upward space. In the spot market, domestic copper is still being warehoused, and affected by imported low - price goods, the spot premium of Shanghai copper may further decline. However, downstream purchasing sentiment may be strong, and the decline is expected to be limited [10] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14045 yuan per ton. According to the China Cotton Information Network on August 22, at the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses of the National Cotton Exchange, the lowest basis quotation was 1070 yuan per ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 120 lots compared to the previous day. According to the US weather forecast, the drought area in the US will increase from August to October [10] Iron Ore - On August 21, the 2601 main contract of iron ore oscillated higher, with a gain of 0.98% and a closing price of 772.5 yuan. The global shipment and arrival volume of iron ore have both increased this period, and port inventory has continued to rise. Molten iron production has increased slightly. However, as environmental protection policies in the north become stricter before the September military parade, there are expectations of a decrease in molten iron production. In the short term, iron ore prices are in an oscillating trend [10] Asphalt - On August 21, the 2510 main contract of asphalt oscillated higher, with a gain of 0.38% and a closing price of 3465 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt has decreased month - on - month this period. Terminal demand is limited by rainfall and funds, and there has been no significant improvement in demand. Without obvious one - way driving factors, asphalt prices will oscillate in the short term [11] Logs - On August 20, the 25091 contract opened at 804, had a low of 803, a high of 812, and closed at 804.5, with a decrease of 825 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to the support at 800 and the resistance at 820 [11] - On August 21, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. Customs data on the 18th showed that in July, log imports were 2.5 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%. The cumulative imports from January to July decreased by 11.7% year - on - year. The increase in overseas prices has driven up the domestic futures price. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on prices [13] Steel - On August 21, rb2510 closed at 3121 yuan per ton, and hc2510 closed at 3375 yuan per ton. As steel prices have fallen for several consecutive days, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream buyers has increased slightly, and the sales of low - price resources have improved. At the same time, most steel mills in Tangshan have maintenance plans, and it is expected that the supply - demand pressure will ease at the end of August and early September. The market should not be overly bearish. In the short term, steel prices will have limited fluctuations and may oscillate in a narrow range [13] Alumina - On August 21, ao2601 closed at 3124 yuan per ton. Fundamentally, the positive factors in the alumina market have faded. The 10.7% month - on - month increase in bauxite imports in July shows that the supply of imported ore has not been significantly affected by the rainy season. Domestic operating capacity remains high, and the import window opens intermittently. The pattern of oversupply will continue in the second half of the year. The alumina warehouse receipt inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has continuously increased to 72,000 tons, alleviating liquidity concerns and dampening bullish sentiment. Alumina is in an oscillating adjustment [14] Shanghai Aluminum - On August 21, al2510 closed at 20590 yuan per ton. In terms of inventory, domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is 571,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from last week, and it has been accumulating for five consecutive weeks, but the support from low inventory still exists. In the short term, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum has changed to al2510. It is restricted by demand above and supported by macro - stimulus and low inventory below. It will continue to oscillate. If the electrolytic aluminum inventory accumulates rapidly, aluminum prices may be under pressure [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 19, A - share major indices oscillated, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.02%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.12%, and ChiNext Index down 0.17%. The trading volume of the two markets shrank by 175.8 billion yuan compared to the previous day. Different futures varieties showed diverse trends, affected by various factors such as supply - demand, policies, and international events [1]. 3. Summary by Variety **Stock Index Futures** - On August 19, the A - share major indices oscillated. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3727.29, down 0.02%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11821.63, down 0.12%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2601.74, down 0.17%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2588.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 175.8 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index adjusted and consolidated, closing at 4223.37, down 16.04 [1]. **Coke and Coking Coal** - Coke: Due to an approaching major event, there is a renewed expectation of production restrictions in coking plants in East China. After the seventh price increase, coking profits have improved, and daily coking production has slightly increased. The overall coke inventory is decreasing, and traders' purchasing willingness is strong. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level of downstream hot metal during the off - season, along with the market sentiment on coal over - production inspection, drives the coke price. The coke futures price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectation [2]. - Coking Coal: The output of coking coal mines has decreased. The spot auction market is doing well, with rising transaction prices. The terminal inventory remains flat. The total coking coal inventory has decreased month - on - month, and the decline in production - end inventory has narrowed. It is likely to continue destocking in the short term [2]. **Zhengzhou Sugar (Zheng Sugar)** - Brazil exported 1,883,277.33 tons of sugar in the first two weeks of August, with an average daily export volume of 171,207.03 tons, a 4% decrease compared to the average daily export volume in August last year. Affected by the concern of decreased demand, US sugar oscillated and declined on Monday. Due to the decline of US sugar and the relatively large import volume in July, the short - sellers pressured the Zheng Sugar 2601 contract, which oscillated downward on Tuesday and at night [2]. **Rubber (Hu Jiao)** - Thailand's meteorological agency warned of possible floods from August 21 - 25, and the Southeast Asian spot quotation is firm. The decline in oil prices and the news of tri - lateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the US may lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian crude oil. Affected by these factors, Hu Jiao oscillated narrowly and closed slightly higher on Tuesday. Due to the significant increase in inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone last week, Hu Jiao oscillated lower at night. As of August 17, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 616,700 tons, a decrease of 3100 tons (0.50%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.12% to 76,900 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.87% to 539,800 tons [3][4]. **Palm Oil** - On August 19, palm oil reached a new high, but in the afternoon, long - position holders took profits, causing the price to give back some gains at the end of the session. The main contract P2601 closed with a small doji star with an upper shadow, closing at 9640, up 0.58% from the previous day. From August 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 1.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51% month - on - month, and the output increased by 0.88% month - on - month [4]. **Soybean Meal** - Internationally, on August 19, CBOT soybean futures oscillated and closed lower. The US Department of Agriculture maintained the soybean crop condition rating at 68% in the weekly report, the same as last year and the highest since 2020. Domestically, on August 19, the M2601 main contract closed at 3163 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. Currently, the supply of imported soybeans is abundant, oil mills are operating at a high capacity, and the soybean meal inventory is high. Although the Brazilian premium has slightly declined, the high price of US soybeans keeps the domestic import cost high. The expected tightening of supply in the fourth quarter provides support for the soybean meal market. Future focus should be on the weather in the producing areas and soybean imports [5]. **Live Hogs** - On August 19, the live hog futures price oscillated. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13900 yuan/ton, up 0.58%. Currently, it is the off - season for pork consumption, and the high - temperature weather has led to weak terminal demand. The order volume of major pig - raising enterprises is low, and the operation level is low, suppressing the price. In August, the production capacity is being realized, the supply of suitable - weight pigs has increased, and the planned slaughter of group pig - raising enterprises has increased month - on - month. Although the number of secondary fattening has increased, the overall scale is limited. The live hog market is currently in a state of loose supply and demand. Future attention should be paid to policy regulation, hog slaughter rhythm, and weight changes [6]. **Iron Ore** - On August 19, the iron ore 2601 main contract oscillated and closed lower, down 0.64%, closing at 771 yuan. The global iron ore shipment and arrival volume have increased, and the port inventory has continued to rise. The hot metal output has slightly increased, but with the tightening of environmental protection policies in the north before the September parade, there is an expectation of hot metal production reduction. In the short term, the iron ore price will oscillate [6]. **Asphalt** - On August 19, the asphalt 2510 main contract oscillated and closed lower, down 0.6%, closing at 3453 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased month - on - month, the shipment volume continued to decline, and the demand side has not improved significantly. The fundamentals lack obvious drivers, and the asphalt price will oscillate in the short term [6]. **Log** - On August 19, the 25091 log contract opened at 809.5, with a low of 807, a high of 816.5, and closed at 810.5, with a daily reduction of 1113 lots. Attention should be paid to the support at 800 and the resistance at 820. The spot prices of medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged from the previous day. Customs data on the 18th showed that the log import volume in July was 2.5 million cubic meters, a 17.7% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative import volume from January - July decreased by 11.7% year - on - year. The increase in the overseas quotation has driven up the domestic futures price. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on the price [7]. **Cotton** - On Tuesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13955 yuan/ton. On August 20, the minimum basis quotation at the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Trading Market was 1070 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 166 lots from the previous day. India announced on August 18 that it will fully exempt cotton import tariffs and agricultural surcharges from August 19 to September 30 [7][8]. **Shanghai Copper (Hu Tong)** - Shanghai copper oscillated with a slight decline. On the one hand, the concentrated arrival of imported copper in Shanghai has increased the inventory, and there is still pressure on subsequent shipments, which may lead to a decline in the spot premium and affect the futures price. On the other hand, it is the off - season for copper consumption, and the demand is mainly supported by power grid orders, so the consumption side cannot strongly boost the price. In the long term, the new - energy demand provides some support for the price, and the expected increase in copper mine production but the decline in the global refined copper supply growth rate in 2025 will also affect the price [8]. **Steel** - On August 19, the rb2510 contract closed at 3126 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3416 yuan/ton. The demand for steel in the off - season continues to decline, and the supply - demand pressure has increased. Considering the planned production restrictions of Tangshan steel mills at the end of August and early September, the market bearish sentiment is not strong. The raw materials have shown different trends, with coke starting the seventh price increase and Shagang reducing the scrap steel purchase price by 30 yuan/ton. In the short term, the steel price may oscillate weakly [8]. **Alumina** - On August 19, the ao2601 contract closed at 3120 yuan/ton. Recently, the production reduction of some alumina plants has slightly decreased the operating capacity and output. However, the raw material inventory of aluminum plants has reached a historical high, and the提货 willingness has weakened, leading to a slowdown in demand and an increase in inventory. With the expected release of new production capacity, there is still pressure on supply surplus. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of production reduction policies around Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei on alumina production. Currently, the market is mixed, with the rapid increase in warehouse receipt inventory competing with structural shortages, and the alumina price will continue to oscillate [9]. **Shanghai Aluminum (Hu Lu)** - On August 19, the al2510 contract closed at 20545 yuan/ton. The aluminum price maintains a weak range structure, oscillating with low trading volume. The center of the price range is lower, and it oscillates narrowly. Downstream buyers are mostly waiting and watching. The high inventory of aluminum ingots puts pressure on the spot price. Although there is an expectation of stockpiling before the peak season, the high inventory and weak aluminum price have limited support for the premium [9].

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 8 月 14 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（8 月 13 日）A 股三大指数集体上涨，沪指八连阳创 2021 年 12 月以来新高。截止收盘， 沪指涨 0.48%，收报 3683.46 点；深证成指涨 1.76%，收报 11551.36 点；创业板指涨 3.62%，收报 2496.50 点。 沪深两市成交额达到 21509 亿，较昨日大幅放量 2694 亿。 沪深 300 指数 8 月 13 日强势依旧。收盘 4176.58，环比上涨 32.75。 【焦炭 焦煤】8 月 13 日焦炭加权指数遇阻回落，收盘价 1722.2，环比下跌 44.8。 8 月 13 日，焦煤加权指数震荡趋弱，收盘价 1226.6 元，环比下跌 37.1。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦炭现货 5 轮提涨全面落地，即期焦化利润小幅修复，后续焦化开工率有望提高。高利润刺激钢厂积 极生产，焦炭现货资源较为紧张，部分钢厂催促焦企发货。钢焦博弈仍在持续，上周五主流焦企开启 6 轮提涨， 钢厂或延缓落地节奏。 焦煤：近期有关矿山超产检查和 276 工作日的消息流出 ...

每经AI快讯，8月13日，上期所原油期货主力合约夜盘收跌0.83%，报490.20元/桶。沪金夜盘收跌 0.11%，沪银收涨0.39%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stainless - steel futures rose today, driven by steel mills' price hikes and related variety disk trends. However, due to weak downstream demand in the off - season, the market is in a wait - and - see state with light trading. Technically, there is a callback pressure after the price breaks through the 50 - day moving average and the RSI indicator moves from the oversold area to the middle range. In the short term, stainless - steel futures may maintain a volatile trend [10]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On August 5, 2025, the price of the stainless - steel ss2509 contract fluctuated upward. It opened near the daily low of 12985 points, then dropped to the daily low of 12920 points, and oscillated within this range throughout the day. The price rose at the end of the session and then fell back to the closing price of 12960 points. Trading volume was high at the opening and before the close, with a daily trading volume of 79826 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The 12 stainless - steel futures contracts show a normal market pattern of lower near - term prices and higher far - term prices. Contracts at both ends of the months saw relatively large price increases, while those in the middle months had weak increases. The active contract ss2509 had a position of 85949 lots, a decrease of 1526 lots. Funds entered the stainless - steel variety on that day, and the position of the secondary - leading contract increased by 2863 lots [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basic Data**: In the past 10 trading days, the basis of the active contract ss2509 changed significantly, with a maximum of 470 yuan/ton, a minimum of 25 yuan/ton, and 140 yuan/ton on the day. In the spot market, taking the 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coil plate with rough edges as an example, the prices in Foshan Yongjin, Wuxi Yongjin, Zibo Hongwang, and Shanghai Hongwang were 12750 yuan/ton, 12800 yuan/ton, 12700 yuan/ton, and 12800 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of stainless - steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 102865 tons, a decrease of 60 tons compared with the previous trading day. The recent change in registered warehouse receipts was small, and the overall warehouse receipt quantity remained at a historical high [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: In terms of cost, the price of Indonesian nickel ore remained stable, and the premium of pyrometallurgical nickel ore was maintained at 24 - 25 US dollars/wet ton. The nickel - iron quotation range moved up slightly, mainly concentrated at 920 - 930 yuan/nickel point. High - cost nickel - iron production lines were mostly in a state of reduction or shutdown. In terms of supply, since July, the stainless - steel price has rebounded, and the steel mills' profits have been significantly repaired. However, the production reduction of steel mills in July was less than expected, and the production schedule in August increased further, so there is still supply pressure. According to Steel Union data, the production schedule of the 300 - series in August is 1.7598 million tons, a 3% month - on - month increase. In terms of inventory, the social inventories in Wuxi and Foshan of stainless - steel have been gradually reduced recently, mainly due to the slowdown of market arrivals and the steel mills' price hikes stimulating purchasing demand. But the terminal demand has not improved significantly, mainly for just - in - time replenishment, and the tariff policy has uncertainties for exports [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook The stainless - steel futures rose today, affected by steel mills' price hikes and related variety disk trends. Due to weak downstream demand in the off - season, the wait - and - see sentiment is strong and trading is light. Technically, there is a callback pressure after the price breaks through the 50 - day moving average and the RSI indicator moves from the oversold area to the middle range. In the short term, stainless - steel futures may maintain a volatile trend [10].

Group 1 - The domestic futures night market opened with most contracts rising, indicating a positive trend in the market [1] - Gold futures decreased by 0.19%, while silver futures increased by 0.33%, reflecting mixed performance in precious metals [1] - Rebar futures rose by 0.72%, iron ore by 0.57%, and coking coal surged over 3%, suggesting strong demand in the construction and steel industries [1] Group 2 - Glass futures increased by 0.56%, indicating stability in the glass manufacturing sector [1] - Crude oil futures fell by nearly 1%, which may reflect concerns over supply or demand dynamics in the energy market [1] - Soda ash futures rose by 2.3%, suggesting potential growth in the chemical industry [1]

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed a collective upward trend on August 4, 2025, with varying degrees of increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, and the trading volume decreased compared to the previous Friday [1]. - Different futures varieties presented different market conditions. For example, some futures prices fluctuated with factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment [4][7][8]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On August 4, the three major A - share indexes closed up. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.66% to 3583.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.46% to 11041.56 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.50% to 2334.32 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 14986 billion yuan, a decrease of 998 billion yuan compared to the previous Friday. The CSI 300 index showed a strong - trending shock, closing at 4070.70, a rise of 15.77 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On August 4, the coke weighted index fluctuated and sorted, with a closing price of 1646.4, a rise of 9.2. The coking coal weighted index showed a weak shock, with a closing price of 1101.0 yuan, a rise of 19.9 [2][3]. - Coke: The cost increased due to rising coal prices, the profitability of coke enterprises was average, the weekly - on - weekly start - up rate declined slightly, and the supply was relatively stable. The demand side had a small decline in iron - water production, but the absolute level was high. The inventory was depleted under the situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures price fluctuated with raw material prices and market sentiment [4]. - Coking coal: The supply recovery was slow due to safety inspections and production restrictions in some mines. The import volume of Mongolian coal reached a high level this year, and the trading sentiment in the spot market declined. The demand side also showed a weak situation with a decline in the start - up rate of coke enterprises and iron - water production [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the weakening of the US economy and improved global supply, the US sugar price declined on Friday. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract showed a shock - adjustment trend on Monday and a slight increase at night due to technical factors and capital effects [4]. Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline and technical support, as well as bargain - hunting buying, the Shanghai rubber futures rebounded slightly on Monday and continued to rise slightly at night. The total inventory at Qingdao Port decreased last week, with a decrease in both bonded and general trade warehouses [5]. Palm Oil - On August 4, palm oil fluctuated widely. The main contract P2509 closed with a long - lower - shadow阴线. The expected inventory, production, and export volume of Malaysian palm oil in July 2025 all increased compared to June [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the CBOT soybean futures rose on August 4. The good - quality rate of US soybeans decreased, and the expected soybean production in Brazil increased. Domestically, the soybean meal futures rose slightly on August 4. The inventory continued to accumulate due to sufficient imported soybeans and high oil - mill crushing volume, but the concern about the future supply gap supported the futures price [7]. Live Pigs - On August 4, live pigs continued the weak trend. The supply was sufficient, and the secondary - fattening enthusiasm declined. The demand was weak due to high - temperature weather and school holidays. The cost increased due to rising feed prices, and the market was in a state of loose supply and demand [8]. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper showed a range - bound shock. The poor US non - farm payroll data increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts, which was theoretically beneficial to copper prices, but tariff policy uncertainty might suppress long - term demand. The global copper inventory was rising, and the demand was weak, but the mining suspension of a Chilean mine and the expected supply - tightening policy supported the copper price [8]. Iron Ore - On August 4, the iron ore 2509 main contract rose with a shock. The global shipment increased last week, the arrival volume decreased, the port inventory decreased, and the iron - water production declined, but the short - term price was in a shock trend [9]. Asphalt - On August 4, the asphalt 2509 main contract declined with a shock. The production capacity utilization rate increased last week, and the demand was expected to recover. The low inventory supported the price, and the short - term price fluctuated [9]. Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13655 yuan/ton at night on Monday. The cotton inventory decreased by 123 lots compared to the previous trading day [9][10]. Logs - The log 2509 contract rose unilaterally on August 4. The external quotation increase drove the internal futures price up. The spot trading was weak, and attention should be paid to factors such as spot prices, import data, and market sentiment [10]. Steel - On August 4, the rb2510 closed at 3204 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 closed at 3417 yuan/ton. The profit game between the upstream and downstream of the black chain intensified, and the trading logic switched to the dual - drive of industrial benefits and valuation repair, with the support of real - estate policies and the steel industry's stable - growth plan [10]. Alumina - On August 4, the ao2509 closed at 3225 yuan/ton. The alumina market was in a game between potential policy benefits and over - supply expectations, with a decline in market sentiment and wide - range fluctuations [11]. Shanghai Aluminum - On August 4, the al2509 closed at 20525 yuan/ton. Overseas macro - pressure led to a decline in aluminum prices, but the stable supply - demand fundamentals and low inventory supported the prices, showing a relatively strong performance [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: Not clearly specified, but market shows signs of limited upward momentum [2] - Pure Benzene: Short - term price is expected to fluctuate, with potential for seasonal improvement in the third - quarter and pressure in the fourth - quarter [3] - PX and PTA:中期加工差有修复驱动，但需等待下游需求恢复 [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Expected to continue the downward trend [5] - Short - fiber: Considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term [5] - Bottle - chip: Long - term pressure from over - capacity limits processing margin repair [5] - Methanol: Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies [6] - Urea: Short - term market is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] - PVC: Short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - Caustic Soda: Futures price is expected to face pressure at high levels in the long - term [7] - Soda Ash: Expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [8] - Glass: Market returns to real - world trading after the subsiding of sentiment [8] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is generally in a complex situation with a mix of supply - demand imbalances, cost factors, and policy impacts across different sectors [2][3][5] - Different products have different supply - demand characteristics, and their price trends are affected by factors such as raw material prices, downstream demand, and inventory levels [2][3][5] Summaries by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures closed down with limited market digestion capacity and weak upward momentum [2] - Polyolefin futures showed narrow - range fluctuations. PE had increased supply pressure and limited demand improvement, while PP had inventory transfer and weak demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene had cost support from rising oil prices but faced weak supply - demand. It is recommended to conduct monthly - spread band trading [3] - Styrene futures had strong cost support but weak supply - demand, with high supply and stable demand [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices declined due to weak domestic commodity sentiment. PX had overseas device shutdowns and PTA had reduced load [5] - Ethylene glycol prices continued to fall with stable demand and increasing domestic supply [5] - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices followed raw materials down. Short - fiber had potential for medium - term improvement, while bottle - chip faced long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices fell with increased imports and low - level inventory. Attention should be paid to macro - policies [6] - Urea futures hit a new low. The market was in the demand off - season with weak short - term trends [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC continued to weaken with high supply and increasing inventory during the off - season [7] - Caustic soda ran weakly with improved comprehensive profits but high - level supply pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash touched the daily limit down with supply - demand pressure and expected weak short - term fluctuations [8] - Glass also touched the daily limit down. The market returned to real - world trading with weakening sales and inventory accumulation [8]

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On July 29, A-share market's three major indices rose collectively, with Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index hitting new highs for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33% to 3609.71 points, Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64% to 11289.41 points, and ChiNext Index rose 1.86% to 2406.59 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1803.2 billion yuan, an increase of 60.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index showed a strengthening trend on July 29, closing at 4152.02, up 16.2 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 29, the weighted coke index showed a weak oscillation, closing at 1656.9, down 35.4; the weighted coking coal index maintained a consolidation trend, closing at 1170.5 yuan, down 43.7 [2][3]. - For coke, the spot price at ports decreased, with Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at 1400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. Some steel mills in Tangshan and Tianjin raised the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton from July 29, 2025. After the fourth price increase, coking enterprises transferred costs to steel mills, and the overall start - up of coking enterprises was stable. After the previous price increase, steel enterprises' profit per ton of steel was generally over 200 yuan/ton, but after the rapid price increase, the exchange took cooling measures, and some participants began to sell actively [4]. - For coking coal, the price of main coking coal in Lvliang area decreased by 118 yuan to 1331 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was weak. Some traders lowered prices due to the fear of high prices after the futures limit - down. Some steel mills in Tangshan and Tianjin accepted the fourth price increase of coke. Currently, coking enterprises' production profit is in a loss of about 50 yuan/ton [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Boosted by the rising crude oil price, US sugar rebounded on Monday. Affected by the rise of US sugar, short - sellers closed positions, driving the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract to rise on Tuesday. At night, the contract fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. Analysts expect Brazil's central - southern region to have a sugarcane crushing volume of 48.3 million tons in the first half of July, a sugar output of 3.3 million tons, and an ethanol output of 2.19 billion liters in July, with year - on - year increases of 11.3%, 12.5%, and 2.3% respectively [5]. Rubber - Due to the large short - term decline, Shanghai rubber oscillated and adjusted slightly lower on Tuesday. At night, it continued to consolidate and closed slightly higher. In June 2025, China's car tire dealer price composite index was 94.06, down 0.51% month - on - month; the truck and bus tire dealer price composite index was 99.08, down 0.29% month - on - month [6][7]. Soybean Meal - In the international market on July 29, CBOT soybean futures fell. The weather forecast showed lower temperatures and periodic rainfall in the US Midwest this week, enhancing the expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest. As of the week ending July 27, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 70%, higher than expected. Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 12.05 million tons. In the domestic market, the soybean meal futures price oscillated. Sufficient imported soybeans and high crushing volume in oil mills led to high soybean meal production and increased inventory, and the weakening of the US soybean market weakened cost support, so the soybean meal price may continue to be weak [7]. Live Pigs - On July 29, the live pig futures price was weak. Recently, the slaughtering sentiment of farmers was strong, and the supply of live pigs was abundant. High - temperature weather led to weak terminal consumption, and the consumption of pork was insufficient. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig market is in a stage of increasing supply. As of the end of June, the number of fertile sows was 40.43 million, 103.7% of the normal level, laying a foundation for abundant pig supply in the second half of the year [8]. Palm Oil - On July 28, palm oil fluctuated widely and then tested the support level again. The main contract P2509 closed with a small positive line with a long lower shadow, closing at 8970, up 0.27%. According to CIMB Securities, if Indonesia implements the B50 biofuel regulation, its domestic palm oil consumption demand may increase by 3 million tons, equivalent to 6.2% of its crude palm oil output in 2024. However, since August 1, 2025, the US has imposed additional import tariffs of 19% and 25% on Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil respectively [9]. Shanghai Copper - The approaching deadline of US tariff policies and the expected unchanged Fed interest rate are negative for copper prices. Fundamentally, supply is loose, and demand is weak. Inventory is at a low level. Technically, there is a possibility of a short - term trend reversal. Overall, copper prices will oscillate weakly, but the downward space may be limited due to low inventory [10]. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,870 yuan/ton. On July 30, the lowest basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 70 lots compared with the previous day [11]. Iron Ore - On July 29, the main contract of iron ore 2509 oscillated and closed up 0.63% at 798 yuan. The global iron ore shipment increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly. Iron ore demand remained resilient, and the short - term price may oscillate at a high level [11]. Asphalt - On July 29, the main contract of asphalt 2509 oscillated and closed up 0.78% at 3619 yuan. The asphalt production plan of local refineries in August decreased compared with July, and the demand recovery was slower than expected due to rainfall. The short - term price will fluctuate [11]. Logs - On July 29, the log futures contract 2509 opened at 828, with the lowest at 823.5, the highest at 838.5, and closed at 830, with a decrease of 1049 lots in positions. The spot market price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradiction, and the spot trading is weak [11][12]. Steel - On July 29, the rb2510 contract closed at 3347 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3503 yuan/ton. The steel market strengthened, possibly related to rumors of anti - involution and real estate meetings. The spot market quotation and trading strengthened, and the market's resistance to price drops increased, but market participation is difficult due to macro news [12]. Alumina - On July 29, the ao2509 contract closed at 3307 yuan/ton. The market sentiment driven by policies conflicts with the fundamentals. The demand for alumina from the electrolytic aluminum industry is weak. In the short - term, the market sentiment may reverse, and the operation risk increases. In the medium - term, the supply - demand structure is loose, and the price cannot deviate from the fundamentals for a long time [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 29, the al2509 contract closed at 20605 yuan/ton. With the approaching of the tariff suspension expiration date on August 1, the Fed's end - of - month interest - rate meeting, and important domestic economic meetings, the impact of macro events on the market should be noted. Fundamentally, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the spot trading is average. The accumulation of social inventory is within the seasonal range, and the low inventory level supports the price [13].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: July 30, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. 3. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market continues to face challenges due to high inventory and weak demand, with the potential for further price declines. The glass market is also under pressure from supply - related inventory issues and weak downstream demand, and the contracts are expected to run weakly [8][9] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions 4.1.1 Soda Ash Market - On July 29, the main soda ash futures SA509 contract continued to decline, closing at 1318 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton (3.58%), with a daily reduction of 108,312 lots. The domestic soda ash industry is facing a combination of high inventory (188.42 tons in factory warehouses) and weak demand (photovoltaic glass daily melting volume dropped to 8.9 tons), intensifying the supply - demand contradiction. The release of the draft for soliciting opinions on the "Technical Guidelines for Feasible Air Pollution Prevention and Control in the Glass Industry" by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment led to a decline in the soda ash market. The fundamentals of soda ash have not changed significantly, and the price may continue to fall [7][8] 4.1.2 Glass Market - In terms of supply, the planned production cuts of photovoltaic glass enterprises have led to a decrease in the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass and a decline in the supply of float glass, increasing inventory pressure. The high inventory in the middle reaches of the industry is the main resistance to price increases, and the slow capacity reduction process may lead to further inventory accumulation. Downstream, the domestic real - estate completion stage has not improved substantially. The release of the draft for soliciting opinions on the "Technical Guidelines for Feasible Air Pollution Prevention and Control in the Glass Industry" has dashed the expectation of capacity contraction, causing a sharp decline in glass contracts. The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided, and the contract is expected to run weakly [9] 4.2 Data Overview - The report provides charts on the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, with data sources including Wind and iFind [11][15][17]