1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the close on March 31, most domestic futures main contracts declined, with some commodities like lithium carbonate and container shipping European routes experiencing significant drops, while some precious metals and agricultural products showed gains [6][7] - The market is significantly influenced by the Middle - East situation, especially the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the US - Iran conflict, which has an impact on the supply and price of commodities such as crude oil, asphalt, PP, and plastic [12][13][14] - The supply and demand patterns of various commodities are different. Some commodities are facing supply shortages due to external factors, while some are in a state of relatively balanced supply and demand or have inventory pressure [9][11][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - As of the close on March 31, lithium carbonate dropped nearly 8%, container shipping European routes dropped nearly 7%, and LPG dropped nearly 6%. On the upside, silver futures rose over 3%, and gold futures and soybeans rose over 1% [6][7] - In terms of stock index futures, most contracts declined, while most treasury bond futures contracts rose or remained flat [7] - In terms of capital flow, silver 2606, CSI 2606, and ten - year treasury bond 2606 had capital inflows, while lithium carbonate 2605, crude oil 2605, and palm oil 2605 had capital outflows [7] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - Copper opened high and closed low. Although the shortage of copper ore resources supports the price, the terminal demand feedback is weak, and the inventory is decreasing. The CSPT did not set a reference price for the second - quarter spot copper concentrate processing fee [9] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - It opened low and closed low, with a nearly 8% decline. The supply side has potential increases, and the demand side's growth rate has slowed down. The situation of lithium mines in Zimbabwe and China will affect the market [11] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - The US crude oil inventory increased more than expected. The situation in the Middle East, especially the Strait of Hormuz issue, has a significant impact on the price. The possibility of a US - Iran negotiation is low, and the risk of price increase still exists [12][13] 3.2.4 Asphalt - The supply side is under pressure, with a decline in the start - up rate and planned production. The demand side is gradually recovering. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation [14][16] 3.2.5 PP - The downstream start - up rate is slowly recovering, and the enterprise start - up rate is at a low level. Affected by the Middle - East situation, the supply reduction expectation exists, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - The start - up rate is at a low level, and the downstream is gradually resuming production. Affected by the Middle - East situation, the supply reduction expectation exists, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [18][19] 3.2.7 PVC - The start - up rate is increasing, but the downstream has a resistance to high - priced raw materials. The social inventory is high, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. It is recommended to wait and see [20][22] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - It opened low and closed low. The domestic mine production is recovering, and the inventory is being transferred downward. The market has a low acceptance of high - price coking coal, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the crude oil and conflict situation [23] 3.2.9 Urea - It opened low and closed low, with a weak performance. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is mainly from compound fertilizer factories. The inventory is expected to continue to decrease, and the impact of the situation change is small [24][25]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on March 26, 2026 - A - share market: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.09% to 3889.08, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.41% to 13606.44, and the Chi - Next Index declined 1.34% to 3272.49. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1957.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 235.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index futures: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4477.53, down 59.93 [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal: The weighted index of coking coal closed at 1287.5 yuan, down 9.1. After the holiday, coal mines gradually resumed production, with supply at a high level in the same period of previous years, and prices were under some pressure. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal was at a high level, and there was still pressure on port inventory. From January to February 2026, the total import of coking coal was 19.8268 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.21% [3][4]. - Coke: The weighted index of coke closed at 1792.6, down 18.6. Some coking enterprises initiated the first - round price increase for coke, with the price of wet - quenched coke rising by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, starting from 0:00 on March 25. Mainstream steel mills have not yet accepted it, and the first - round price increase is still in a game. The iron - making water output increased significantly, with a week - on - week increase of 69,500 tons per day. From January to February 2026, China's total coke exports were 1.4341 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 41.87% [2][4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation, the crude oil price fluctuated higher on Thursday. Supported by the strong crude oil price, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract fluctuated upward on Thursday. The night session of the contract had little fluctuation, with a narrow - range shock and a small increase. In April 2026, the domestic sugar sales quota was 2.3 million tons, 50,000 tons less than the same period last year [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Due to factors such as a large short - term increase and the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation, Shanghai rubber fluctuated and sorted out on Thursday, with a small increase. The night session had little fluctuation, with a narrow - range shock and a small increase. From January to February 2026, China's tire production decreased by 0.7% year - on - year to 177.526 million pieces, and the cumulative production of synthetic rubber was 1.542 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5% [4][5]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - International market: On March 26, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1171 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.21%. As of the week ending March 19, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the current market year was 668,900 tons, a 124% increase from the previous week and an 89% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. Brazil's soybean harvest is nearly over, with export logistics facing challenges, but the overall supply is abundant. Brazil's soybean exports in March are expected to be 15.87 million tons [5]. - Domestic market: On March 26, the main soybean meal M2605 contract closed at 2937 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51%. The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture is actively solving the soybean export quarantine problem, and the market's concern about the supply of imported soybeans is gradually subsiding. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased last weekend, and the spot inventory of oil mills increased slightly. It is expected that the arrival volume of soybeans in China will increase significantly from April to May [5]. 2.5 Live Pigs - On March 26, the main live pig LH2605 contract closed at 9835 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.45%. Affected by the high inventory of sows capable of reproduction and the improvement of production efficiency, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs increased. The overall shipment enthusiasm was high, and the shipment rhythm accelerated significantly. The demand side was in the seasonal off - season, with weak downstream white - strip sales, low slaughtering enterprise operating rates, and limited support for pig prices [5]. 2.6 Palm Oil - On March 26, the palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange continued to follow the crude oil price fluctuations, with the main contract P2605 closing with a positive line with upper and lower shadows. The highest price was 9640, the lowest was 9482, and the closing price was 9614, a 1.09% decrease from the previous trading day. From March 1 to 25, 2026, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.74% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.28% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 11.21% month - on - month [5]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai copper contract had a narrow - range shock and finally closed up 0.17% at 95,350 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 95,325 yuan/ton, with a discount of 25 yuan/ton compared to the main futures contract. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased significantly by 997,000 tons compared to March 19. The global shortage of copper ore raw materials is still expected, the smelting processing profit is limited, and the output increase is limited. The downstream demand of the domestic power grid and new - energy vehicles is steadily recovering [5]. 2.8 Logs - The main log 2605 contract opened at 816.5, with a minimum of 814, a maximum of 820, and a closing price of 817, with a decrease of 349 lots in positions. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu remained unchanged from the previous day [6]. 2.9 Iron Ore - On March 26, the main iron ore 2605 contract closed up 0.18% at 817 yuan. The shipping and arrival volume of iron ore increased week - on - week, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the iron - making water demand of steel mills recovered. The short - term iron ore price was in a shock trend [6]. 2.10 Asphalt - On March 26, the main asphalt 2606 contract closed up 4.17% at 4543 yuan. The refinery production plan in April decreased to a low level in the same period in recent years, the downstream demand started slowly, and the refinery shipment volume decreased week - on - week. The short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [6]. 2.11 Cotton - On Thursday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 15,355 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 100 lots compared to the previous trading day, and downstream textile enterprises purchased on demand [6]. 2.12 Steel - On March 26, rb2605 closed at 3128 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3305 yuan/ton. This week, the steel market may see an increase in both supply and demand, and the inventory is still in a downward channel. However, the overall trading volume of the steel market was average. The short - term steel price may fluctuate in a narrow range [6]. 2.13 Alumina - On March 26, ao2605 closed at 2931 yuan/ton. Some domestic alumina enterprises carried out maintenance and production reduction, and the new production capacity has not yet produced, which alleviated the phased supply pressure. However, the suppression brought by the new production capacity is still significant, and the oversupply pattern is difficult to change. The downstream peak - season consumption expectation is lower than in previous years, and the market trading is dull [6]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - On March 26, al2605 closed at 23,725 yuan/ton. The market is waiting and seeing the possibility of the US - Iran talks in the Middle East and evaluating the possibility of the situation intensifying again. The supply side of the fundamentals is operating smoothly, the aluminum - water ratio has increased slightly, the platform inventory is still at a high level, the accumulation speed of the aluminum ingot social inventory has slowed down, and the aluminum rod shows inventory reduction. The demand side shows moderate receiving, and the downstream and terminal restocking willingness exists, which provides certain support for the spot [6][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market had mixed performance on March 25, 2026, with some commodities rising and others falling. The market was significantly affected by the Middle - East situation, and the prices of energy - related commodities were highly volatile [6][7]. - For most commodities, the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation led to large price fluctuations, and it was recommended to be cautious when participating in the market, with some suggesting temporary exit and waiting for more stable market conditions [13][16][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Commodity Performance - **Falling Commodities**: Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) dropped by over 8%, fuel oil and container shipping on the European line dropped by over 6%, and ethylene glycol, PVC, low - sulfur fuel oil (LU), propylene, and plastic dropped by over 4% [6]. - **Rising Commodities**: Shanghai silver rose by over 7%, platinum and palladium rose by over 5%, and lithium carbonate and butadiene rubber rose by over 4%. Stock index futures and some treasury bond futures also had varying degrees of increase [6][7]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:25 on March 25, 2026, funds flowed into Shanghai gold 2606 (5.782 billion yuan), Shanghai silver 2606 (1.804 billion yuan), and butadiene rubber 2605 (1.097 billion yuan). Funds flowed out of CSI 1000 2606 (4.134 billion yuan), crude oil 2605 (783 million yuan), and iron ore 2605 (732 million yuan) [7]. 3.2. Market Analysis - **Copper**: In February 2026, China's copper concentrate imports increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The shortage of copper resources supported the price. The substitution of recycled copper decreased, and the production of electrolytic copper increased. The demand in the copper product sector started to pick up, but the terminal data was not optimistic. The copper price rebounded due to the news of the possible cease - fire in the Middle - East, and caution was needed when chasing the rise [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate rose. In February 2026, China's lithium carbonate imports increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The export of lithium ore in Zimbabwe was affected, and the subsequent resumption of production in domestic lithium mines was a potential negative factor. The inventory decreased slightly, and the overall demand growth showed a marginal weakening trend [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The EIA data showed that the US crude oil inventory increased more than expected, but the refined oil inventory decreased significantly. The Middle - East situation was the focus, and the suspension of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz led to production cuts in Middle - East oil - producing countries. Although some measures were taken to ease the supply pressure, the situation was still uncertain, and the oil price was highly volatile [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate decreased, and the downstream demand gradually recovered. The market was worried about the shortage of raw materials in domestic refineries due to the Middle - East situation. The supply - demand situation improved, but it was recommended to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the development of the Middle - East situation [14]. - **PP**: The downstream demand for PP recovered slowly, and the enterprise production rate decreased. The cost was affected by the Middle - East situation. The domestic supply - demand pattern improved, but the downstream was resistant to high prices. It was recommended to pay attention to the downstream resumption of production and the Middle - East situation [16]. - **Plastic**: The plastic production rate decreased, and the downstream demand gradually recovered. The cost was affected by the Middle - East situation. The domestic supply - demand pattern improved, but the downstream was cautious in purchasing. It was recommended to pay attention to the downstream resumption of production and the Middle - East situation [17][18]. - **PVC**: The PVC production rate decreased, and the downstream demand gradually recovered. The export price increased, and the social inventory decreased for the first time after the Spring Festival. The PVC industry had the expectation of anti - involution, and the supply was expected to decrease if the Strait of Hormuz did not resume navigation. It was recommended to stay on the sidelines [19][21]. - **Coking Coal**: The domestic coal production resumed, and the downstream started to build up inventory. The price of coking coal was affected by the Middle - East situation, and the market volatility was high. The fundamental driving force was not strong, and caution was needed in operation [22]. - **Urea**: The market trading was average, and the factory price was stable. The high production and national reserve ensured the supply, and the downstream demand was weakening but still had some procurement. The inventory continued to decrease, and the price was in high - level shock [23].

Report Summary 1. Overview of Market Performance on March 18, 2026 - A-shares: The three major A-share indices rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.32% to close at 4062.98, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.05% to close at 14187.80, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.02% to close at 3346.37. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.06 trillion yuan, a decrease of 16.35 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index Futures: The CSI 300 index oscillated and consolidated, closing at 4658.33, a rise of 20.89 compared to the previous day [2]. 2. Commodity Futures Analysis 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted coke index adjusted and consolidated, closing at 1741.7, a decrease of 11.6 compared to the previous day. Coke enterprises' operating loads remained stable, coke inventories decreased, and the profit per ton of coke turned negative. Steel mills' production was restricted, and the demand side was affected. The spot price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2][4]. - Coking Coal: The weighted coking coal index fluctuated within a range, closing at 1188.2 yuan, a decrease of 12.5 compared to the previous day. Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level, mines and coal washing plants increased their operations, and clean coal inventories accumulated. The downstream coke enterprises' operations remained stable, coking coal inventories increased, and iron water production declined. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 clean coal was 1435 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1350 yuan/ton on the futures market [3][4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - The US sugar rose on Tuesday due to the increase in crude oil prices, but the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract on Wednesday did not follow. Constrained by factors such as negative import data and a decrease in spot prices, long - position holders closed their positions, causing the futures price to decline. Affected by technical factors, the contract oscillated and slightly rebounded at night. China's sugar imports in February were 240,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1410.8%. The cumulative imports from January to February were 520,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 563.1%. Brazil's expected sugarcane planting area in 2026 was 9.373731 million hectares, a decrease of 1.3% from the previous month's forecast and 2.0% from the previous year. The sugarcane output was estimated to be 700.380132 million tons, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous month's forecast and 0.4% from the previous year [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai rubber showed an oscillating downward trend on Wednesday, mainly due to high crude oil prices potentially restricting global economic growth and affecting demand, and the steady progress of the tapping season in Yunnan, which would increase the supply of domestic new rubber. Affected by technical factors, the rubber futures oscillated and slightly declined at night. In January 2026, Indonesia exported 102,000 tons of natural rubber, a year - on - year decrease of 29%. In the first two months of 2026, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports were 321,000 tons, a decrease of 0.9% compared to the same period in 2025 [4][5]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - International Market: On March 18, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1163.75 cents per bushel, a rise of 0.63%. The strengthening of crude oil prices supported soybean prices. As of March 12, the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 61%, lower than 70% in the same period last year. Brazil's soybean exports in March were expected to be 16.32 million tons, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 16.47 million tons [5]. - Domestic Market: On March 18, the main soybean meal M2605 contract closed at 3036 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.11%. International companies suspended some Brazilian soybean exports last week, and the slow harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans led to concerns about the tight supply of imported soybeans in China from March to April. The trading volume of soybean meal increased significantly, and inventories decreased significantly. Currently, the quarantine policy for Brazilian soybeans has been relaxed, and the daily transportation volume has returned to normal. It is expected that the arrival volume in China from April to May will still increase significantly [5]. 2.5 Live Pigs - On March 18, the main live pig contract LH2605 closed at 10475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.06%. On the supply side, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale breeding enterprises in March increased significantly compared to the previous month. To complete the monthly slaughter task and relieve financial pressure, the overall sales enthusiasm was high, and the slaughter rhythm continued to accelerate. The market supply remained abundant. The inventory of breeding sows was still at a high level, the production capacity base was large, and with the improvement of breeding efficiency, the effective supply continued to be abundant. On the demand side, after the Spring Festival, pork consumption entered the off - season, the sales of downstream white - striped pork were weak, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was low, and the demand side's ability to absorb was insufficient, providing limited support for pig prices [5]. 2.6 Palm Oil - On March 18, the decline of international oil prices during the day dragged down the overall correction of the oil and fat sector. The palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange oscillated and declined from a high level. The main contract P2605 closed with a doji candlestick. The highest price was 9992, the lowest price was 9666, and the closing price was 9692, a decrease of 2.63% compared to the previous trading day. Indonesia may increase the consumption of biodiesel made from palm oil if global oil supply becomes difficult to guarantee. The Indonesian president called on producers and dealers of coal, crude palm oil, and their derivatives to prioritize domestic demand before exporting and implemented stricter controls on commodity exports [5]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai Copper 2604 contract closed at 98590 yuan/ton, with an opening price of 99120 yuan, a highest price of 99530 yuan, and a lowest price of 98040 yuan. The trading volume was 106,663 lots, and the open interest was 174,221 lots. The price rose during the day and then fell back, and was under pressure in the late trading, effectively breaking through the 100,000 - yuan mark. LME copper inventories increased by 18,775 tons to 330,375 tons, reaching a new high since August 2019. The copper warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1291 tons to 324,289 tons, indicating significant inventory pressure. The spot price of Shanghai No. 1 electrolytic copper was 98990 yuan/ton, with a premium of 400 yuan/ton over the futures main contract. The downstream's willingness to replenish inventory at low prices improved [5][6]. 2.8 Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 15235 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 2 lots compared to the previous trading day. As it entered the sales peak season, textile enterprises purchased as needed [6]. 2.9 Logs - The main log 2605 contract opened at 812, with a lowest price of 803, a highest price of 815, and a closing price of 806, with an increase of 355 lots in open interest. On March 18, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was also 770 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [6]. 2.10 Iron Ore - On March 18, the main iron ore 2605 contract oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.12% and a closing price of 811 yuan. The iron ore shipments increased compared to the previous period, the arrival volume decreased again, the port inventories continued to accumulate, and the iron water production continued to decline. However, with the lifting of production restrictions on steel mills, there was a demand for replenishing inventory due to rigid needs, and the demand for iron water might recover. In the short term, the iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [6]. 2.11 Asphalt - On March 18, the main asphalt 2606 contract oscillated and closed up, with a rise of 0.11% and a closing price of 4400 yuan. Domestic refineries reduced production due to unstable raw material supply, and inventories were at a low level. However, downstream demand had not started yet. In the short term, the asphalt price might follow the trend of oil prices [6]. 2.12 Steel - On March 18, the rb2605 contract closed at 3140 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3310 yuan/ton. The current downstream terminal construction situation was average, and the demand recovery was still slow. Although the futures price of steel rose the previous day, some merchants slightly raised their prices, but the trading volume was small, and most actual transactions were at low prices. At the same time, the international situation was volatile, with many uncertain factors. In the short term, steel prices might fluctuate within a narrow range [6]. 2.13 Alumina - On March 18, the ao2605 contract closed at 3048 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the production capacity shut down before the Spring Festival had not resumed, and some roasting production capacity was restricted last week. The commissioning time of new production capacity was undetermined, so the overall supply pressure was controllable. On the demand side, the slight increase in electrolytic aluminum production capacity drove the recovery of procurement demand. In the spot market, the spot price continued to stabilize and rise. The willingness of holders to sell at high prices increased, and the enthusiasm of downstream buyers to enter the market improved. The trading atmosphere in the morning was active. In the afternoon, the futures price continued to be strong, the holders' reluctance to sell increased, and the downstream still had a rhythm of chasing the rising price to replenish inventory. The market's spot buying interest boosted the alumina futures price, and the overall trading performance was quite remarkable [6]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - On March 18, the al2605 contract closed at 24800 yuan/ton. At the macro level, the military action of the US and Israel against Iran entered the third week, and geopolitical risks significantly increased. Iran attacked the Port of Fujairah in the UAE three times within four days, causing the suspension of shipments at this key hub (accounting for about 1% of global demand). The substantial closure of the Strait of Hormuz forced the UAE to cut its crude oil production by more than half. Although the White House said that oil tankers had begun to sail sporadically and the conflict might last for several weeks, analysts warned that any attack on oil tankers would trigger a serious situation. In this context, the market generally expected that major central banks such as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank would keep interest rates unchanged this week. However, given the soaring oil prices pushing up inflation, the Federal Reserve's statement might turn hawkish, suggesting that the window for interest rate cuts would be further postponed. Domestically, the fundamental situation was "increasing supply and weak demand." The capacity replacement project of electrolytic aluminum plants was put into operation, and the high smelting profit boosted the supply expectation. Social inventories continued to accumulate. Downstream only maintained rigid - demand procurement, the spot discount pattern continued, and buyers' bearish and wait - and - see sentiment was strong, resulting in light trading [6][7]. 3. Market Outlook and Suggestions - Soybean Meal: Focus on weather changes in South America, the progress of the situation in the Middle East, and the rhythm of soybean arrivals [5]. - Live Pigs: Pay attention to the progress of the reduction of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the recovery of terminal consumption [5]. - Shanghai Copper: Track the progress of inventory reduction and the recovery of downstream peak - season demand [6]. - Logs: Pay attention to spot prices, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment for prices [6].

Report Overview - The report is a daily analysis of core futures varieties, released on March 9, 2026 [3] Market Performance Futures Market Summary - As of the close on March 9, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Contracts such as container shipping to Europe, SC crude oil, etc., hit the daily limit. Methanol rose over 11%, palm oil rose over 6%, and caustic soda and coking coal rose over 5%. In terms of declines, Shanghai tin and palladium fell over 2%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also showed varying degrees of decline [5][6] Capital Flows - As of 15:19 on March 9, funds flowed into contracts such as CSI 1000 2603 (5.594 billion), CSI 300 2603 (2.496 billion), and CSI 500 2603 (2.195 billion). Funds flowed out of contracts such as Shanghai gold 2604 (1.324 billion), coking coal 2605 (945 million), and 10 - year treasury bond 2606 (755 million) [6] Market Analysis Copper - The Shanghai copper market opened low and weakened during the day. It is expected that the production in March will increase by 52,800 tons month - on - month and 6.51% year - on - year, possibly reaching a record high. The recycled copper market is tight, and smelting is difficult. Downstream demand is increasing, but inventory is still accumulating. The copper price is affected by macro and financial factors and is expected to be weak in the short term [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and closed higher, showing a volatile and strong trend. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. The开工 rate dropped, and the production in February decreased significantly. The inventory is being depleted, but the rate is narrowing. The terminal demand is affected by the Middle East conflict. The market is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [10] Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April. EIA data shows that US crude oil inventory increased more than expected. The Middle East situation is tense, with the Iran - Israel conflict and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. The price of crude oil is expected to be strong and volatile, and attention should be paid to the Middle East situation [11][12] Asphalt - The asphalt supply side: the开工 rate increased slightly last week, and the expected production in March increased. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. The price is expected to rise with the crude oil price, and attention should be paid to the shortage of domestic refinery raw materials [13][15] PP - The downstream开工 rate of PP increased, and the enterprise开工 rate decreased. The inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is affected by the Middle East situation, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. It is expected to be strong and volatile, and attention should be paid to the downstream resumption of production and the Middle East situation [16] Plastic - The plastic开工 rate is at a neutral - high level. The downstream开工 rate increased, and the inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is affected by the Middle East situation, and new production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected to be strong and volatile, and attention should be paid to the downstream resumption of production and the Middle East situation [17][18] PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price increased. The PVC开工 rate decreased slightly, and the downstream开工 rate increased. The export situation improved, but the inventory is still high. The price is expected to be strong and volatile due to policy and cost factors [19] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and hit the daily limit, then opened the limit in the afternoon. The mine开工 rate increased, but the downstream demand is weak. The price is affected by the geopolitical situation, and the follow - up trend depends on the duration of the conflict [21] Urea - Urea opened with a daily limit and then fell back. The spot market is affected by the Middle East conflict. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is in the peak season. The price is expected to be stable after the market sentiment calms down [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - As of the close on March 4, 2026, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Shipping routes to Europe, SC crude oil, and fuel oil hit the daily limit for the third consecutive day. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 11%, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and polypropylene (PP) rose over 5%. On the other hand, tin futures fell over 5%, and polysilicon, platinum, silver, and gold futures also declined significantly. The prices and trends of various futures contracts were affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand changes, and seasonal factors [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - **Gainers**: Shipping routes to Europe, SC crude oil, and fuel oil hit the daily limit for three consecutive days. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 11%, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and polypropylene (PP) rose over 5%, and plastics and propylene rose nearly 4% [5]. - **Losers**: Tin futures fell over 5%, and polysilicon, platinum, silver, and gold futures fell over 4%, 4%, 4%, and 3% respectively. Stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, also declined, while most treasury bond futures rose, except for the 30-year treasury bond futures [5][6]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:19 on March 4, funds flowed into aluminum, fuel oil, and 10-year treasury bond futures, while large amounts of funds flowed out of gold, CSI, and CSI 1000 futures [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - Copper prices opened low and rose slightly but remained weak. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increased inflation expectations and reduced the likelihood of the Fed's interest rate cuts, putting pressure on non-ferrous metals. In February, China's electrolytic copper production decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year. It is expected to reach a record high in March. Due to the shortage of copper concentrates, the demand for scrap copper is expected to rise, and the supply gap may be filled by overseas imports. High copper prices have led to strong resistance from downstream consumers, and the demand for copper products is expected to remain weak [8]. 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices opened and closed lower. The average price of battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate decreased. Production is expected to decline in February due to seasonal and holiday factors. The overall inventory has decreased, and the fundamentals are short-term tight. The conflict between the United States and Iran has affected the delivery of energy storage batteries in the Middle East, and the export of terminals has been impacted. Although the peak season is approaching, the increase in demand is limited, and the price has some support [10]. 3.2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, and further production increase plans are to be determined. EIA data showed a significant build-up of crude oil inventories in the United States. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, especially the situation in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, have led to disruptions in oil transportation and production. Iraq has cut production, and Qatar has stopped LNG production. Trump's offer to provide insurance and escort for oil tankers has caused oil prices to fluctuate. It is expected that oil prices will remain strong in the near term, and the situation in the Middle East will have a significant impact on oil price volatility [11][12]. 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased slightly last week and is at a low level compared to previous years. In March, domestic asphalt production is expected to increase month-on-month but decrease year-on-year. After the Spring Festival, downstream industries are gradually resuming work, but the overall demand remains weak. The inventory of asphalt refineries is at a low level, but the market is worried about a shortage of raw materials in March due to geopolitical factors. It is expected that asphalt prices will follow the increase in crude oil prices [13][15]. 3.2.5 PP - The downstream开工率 of PP decreased seasonally, and the enterprise开工率 remained at a relatively low level. The proportion of standard-grade wire production increased. After the Spring Festival, the inventory of petrochemical enterprises has been decreasing and is currently at a neutral level. The increase in crude oil prices has boosted the price of PP. Although the domestic supply and demand situation has improved slightly, the market expects a rebound in the chemical industry. It is expected that PP prices will remain strong, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption [16]. 3.2.6 Plastic - The开工率 of plastic increased after the restart of some maintenance devices and is currently at a neutral to high level. The downstream开工率 of PE decreased seasonally, and the inventory of petrochemical enterprises has been decreasing and is at a neutral level. The increase in crude oil prices has had a positive impact on the price of plastic. Although the domestic supply and demand situation has improved slightly, the market expects a rebound in the chemical industry. The import of PE from Iran accounts for a small proportion of the total, but the import from the Middle East accounts for a relatively large proportion. It is expected that plastic prices will remain strong, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption [17][18]. 3.2.7 PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region continued to decline. The开工率 of PVC increased and is at a neutral to high level. After the Spring Festival, the downstream开工率 of PVC increased but is still lower than the same period last year. The export of PVC is expected to be low in March due to the cancellation of export tax rebates and the anti-subsidy investigation by India. The social inventory of PVC is still high, and the real estate market continues to adjust. Although the PVC market has a weak reality, it has strong expectations due to policy and maintenance expectations. It is expected that PVC prices will remain strong, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption [19]. 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal prices opened high and closed low. Domestic mines are gradually resuming work, and the inventory of coking coal mines has increased. The inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills has decreased. After the Spring Festival, the production of molten iron in steel mills has increased slightly, but the reduction of emissions during the Two Sessions may affect short-term production. The real estate market has introduced some stimulus policies, but the performance of the terminal market still needs to be observed. After the impact of geopolitical conflicts in Iran on the coal market is realized, the price is expected to return to the fundamentals of loose supply and demand and will be under pressure if the macro sentiment remains stable [20][21]. 3.2.9 Urea - Urea prices opened high, fluctuated, and closed slightly higher. The trading volume decreased, and the price was relatively stable. The daily production of urea has reached around 220,000 tons, and there are no long-term shutdown and maintenance plans in the short term. After the Lantern Festival, compound fertilizer factories have resumed work, but the开工 rate in Hebei has been affected by environmental protection. The inventory of urea has started to decrease due to the continuation of agricultural demand and the increase in industrial demand. Although the international urea price is affected by the situation in the Middle East, it has little impact on the domestic market. The price of urea is expected to be range-bound, and attention should be paid to the possibility of a price increase driven by the energy and chemical sector [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the close on March 3rd, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose, with some hitting the daily limit, while some others like lithium carbonate and Shanghai tin hit the daily limit down, and stock index futures generally declined, and treasury bond futures showed mixed performance [4][5] - The prices of various futures are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, geopolitical conflicts, and seasonal factors, with different futures showing different trends and potential risks [6][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - **Gainers**: Container Shipping Europe Line, Fuel Oil, SC Crude Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU), Methanol, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), Plastic, Polypropylene (PP), Ethylene Glycol (EG) hit the daily limit; Propylene rose over 8%; Pure Benzene rose nearly 7%; p - Xylene (PX), Styrene (EB), Asphalt rose nearly 5%; Apple and Coking Coal rose over 4% [4][5] - **Losers**: Lithium Carbonate and Shanghai Tin hit the daily limit down; Shanghai Silver fell over 9%; Platinum fell over 8%; Palladium fell over 6% [5] - **Stock Index Futures**: CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract fell 1.29%; SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.83%; CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract fell 4.24%; CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract fell 3.57% [5] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract rose 0.01%; 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) main contract remained flat; 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures (T) main contract fell 0.01%; 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) main contract rose 0.09% [5] - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:21 on March 3rd, Apple 2605 had an inflow of 751 million, Fuel Oil 2605 had an inflow of 386 million, and Crude Oil 2604 had an inflow of 345 million; Shanghai Gold 2604 had an outflow of 7.552 billion, Shanghai Silver 2604 had an outflow of 4.520 billion, and Lithium Carbonate 2605 had an outflow of 4.155 billion [5] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Shanghai Copper - Shanghai Copper opened low and moved lower, with a decline on the day. The US ISM manufacturing index expanded for two consecutive months in February, and the Iran conflict may increase inflation pressure. A bridge collapse in Zambia disrupted copper exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, but restoration work was underway. In February, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 3.69 tons month - on - month, a 3.13% decline, and was expected to increase by 5.28 tons in March, with a year - on - year increase of 6.51%. The demand for scrap copper is expected to increase, and the supply gap may be filled by imports. High copper prices have led to strong resistance from downstream terminals, and the copper market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with the price under pressure [6] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium Carbonate opened low and moved lower, hitting the daily limit on the day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 161,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11,500 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 157,500 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 11,500 yuan/ton. The supply was affected by seasonal and holiday - related production cuts in February, with an expected output of 81,900 tons, a 16% month - on - month decrease. Downstream battery production remained relatively high, and inventory decreased by about 2,900 tons. However, due to geopolitical conflicts and changes in tariff policies, the price dropped significantly [8] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, and the subsequent production plan may be adjusted. The EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories increased significantly beyond expectations. After the US and Israel attacked Iran, Iran retaliated, and the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, affecting oil transportation. Qatar's liquefied natural gas production was also affected. The Middle East situation remains tense, and crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the near term [9][11] 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.4% last week, and it is expected to produce 2.187 million tons in March 2026, a 13.0% month - on - month increase. After the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, but the overall shipment volume decreased, and the factory inventory increased. The supply of Venezuelan and Iranian crude oil is uncertain, and asphalt prices are expected to rise with crude oil prices, with reverse arbitrage as the main strategy [12][14] 3.2.5 PP - As of the week of February 27th, the PP downstream开工率 decreased by 5.04 percentage points to 36.74% compared to before the Spring Festival. On March 3rd, the PP企业开工率 was around 79%, and the production ratio of standard grade wire drawing increased. After the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory decreased, and it is currently at a neutral level. The increase in crude oil prices due to the Middle East situation has a positive impact on PP, but the downstream recovery is slow. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the L - PP spread is recommended to stop profit and wait and see [15] 3.2.6 Plastic - On March 3rd, the plastic开工率 was around 91%. As of the week of February 27th, the PE downstream开工率 decreased by 1.58 percentage points to 18.22% compared to before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory decreased, and it is currently at a neutral level. The increase in crude oil prices has a positive impact on plastic. New production capacity was put into operation at the beginning of the year, and the downstream recovery is slow. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the L - PP spread is recommended to stop profit and wait and see [16][17] 3.2.7 PVC - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwestern region decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The PVC开工率 increased by 1.99 percentage points to 82.08%, and the downstream开工率 increased after the Spring Festival but is still lower than the same period last year. Export orders may be at a low level in March, the social inventory is high, and the real - estate market recovery is slow. PVC has a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, and is expected to fluctuate strongly [18] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking Coal opened high and moved high, rising over 4% on the day. The import of Mongolian coal is gradually recovering, and domestic mines are resuming work, with an increase in mine inventory. After the Spring Festival, the inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills has decreased. The iron water output has increased, but there may be short - term interference during the Two Sessions. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the price rose, but there is a risk of correction in the future [20] 3.2.9 Urea - Urea opened low and moved low on the day. The futures price decline affected the spot trading activity. The daily output has reached around 220,000 tons, and the upstream inventory is lower than the same period last year. March is the peak agricultural demand season, and the demand for high - nitrogen compound fertilizers is expected to support urea. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and there is a risk of a compensatory increase [21]

Market Performance - The domestic futures market closed with mixed results, with Shanghai tin rising over 8% [1] - Platinum increased by more than 5%, while silicon iron rose over 3% [1] - Palladium and manganese silicon both saw gains exceeding 2% [1] Declines - On the downside, alumina fell by more than 3% [1] - Propylene, methanol, plastic, and PVC all experienced declines of over 2% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the close on February 26, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with some rising and some falling. The results of the US - Iran negotiation have great uncertainty and will have a significant impact on the prices of related commodities such as copper, crude oil, and asphalt. The supply - demand patterns of various commodities are different, and the price trends are also affected by factors such as production, consumption, and inventory [6][9][13] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - **Gains**: Shanghai tin and lithium carbonate rose over 3%, ferromanganese - silicon and platinum rose over 2%, and fuel oil rose nearly 2%. - **Losses**: Container shipping to Europe lines fell over 5%, synthetic rubber fell over 3%, and polysilicon, coking coal, methanol, palladium, and PVC fell over 2%. - **Stock Index Futures**: The main contract of CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) fell 0.40%, the main contract of SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) fell 0.77%, the main contract of CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) rose 0.23%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) rose 0.50%. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contract of 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) fell 0.03%, the main contract of 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) fell 0.08%, the main contract of 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures (T) fell 0.10%, and the main contract of 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) fell 0.53% [6][7] 3.2 Capital Flows - **Inflow**: As of 15:20 on February 26, Shanghai copper 2604 had an inflow of 1.333 billion yuan, coking coal 2605 had an inflow of 799 million yuan, and lithium carbonate 2605 had an inflow of 717 million yuan. - **Outflow**: CSI 1000 2603 had an outflow of 4.759 billion yuan, Shanghai - Shenzhen 2603 had an outflow of 4.639 billion yuan, and CSI 2603 had an outflow of 2.713 billion yuan [7] 3.3 Market Analysis 3.3.1 Shanghai Copper - The price opened high and went strong during the day. The follow - up process of the US - Iran negotiation affects the macro - sentiment. If the geopolitical situation escalates, the risk - aversion sentiment may benefit the copper price. The supply is expected to be stable at a high level, with a decrease in February. The demand side has low trading activity, and the high inventory suppresses the price. After the peak season starts, the copper price may stabilize and strengthen [9] 3.3.2 Lithium Carbonate - The price opened high and went low, rising over 3% during the day. The fundamentals are relatively strong in the short term due to production reduction at the upstream and relatively high - level production at the downstream. The "export rush" expectation and relevant policies support the price, but the price is facing resistance to break through the previous high, and the risk of increased volatility is rising [10][11] 3.3.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ may consider increasing production in April. The US crude oil inventory has increased significantly, and the US - Iran negotiation is uncertain. The geopolitical risk in Iran is high. The crude oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the negotiation result has a great impact on the price [13][15] 3.3.4 Asphalt - The supply is at a low level, and the demand is weak. The inventory of refineries is at a low level in recent years. The availability of Venezuelan crude oil is uncertain. The price is expected to fluctuate following the crude oil price, and the reverse arbitrage is recommended [16] 3.3.5 PP (Polypropylene) - The downstream and enterprise operating rates are at a low - to - medium level. The petrochemical inventory is at a medium level. The cost price is stable. The supply - demand pattern improvement is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to continue to narrow [17][18] 3.3.6 Plastic - The operating rate is at a medium - to - high level. The downstream operating rate has decreased seasonally. The petrochemical inventory is at a medium level. New production capacity has been put into operation. The supply - demand pattern improvement is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to continue to narrow [19] 3.3.7 PVC - The supply is at a medium level. The export order has decreased, and the social inventory is high. The real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage. The PVC market has a weak reality but strong expectations, and it is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the downstream resumption of production [20][21] 3.3.8 Coking Coal - The price opened high and went high, rising over 2% during the day. The supply is gradually recovering, while the downstream steel mills' start - up is slow due to emission reduction control. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [22] 3.3.9 Urea - The price opened low and went low, showing weakness during the day. The spot price is stable, and the trading activity has decreased. The upstream production is stable, and the downstream is expected to resume production after the Lantern Festival. The inventory has increased, but the agricultural demand provides support, and the price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market shows mixed performance on February 26, 2026, with significant gains in certain commodities while others experience notable declines [1][6]. Price Movements - Major contracts such as tin and lithium carbonate increased by over 3%, while manganese silicon and platinum rose by more than 2%. Fuel oil also saw an increase of nearly 2% [1][6]. - On the downside, the shipping European line dropped by over 5%, with synthetic rubber falling more than 3%. Other commodities like polysilicon, coking coal, methanol, palladium, and PVC all decreased by over 2% [1][6]. Trading Data - Specific trading data indicates that the lithium carbonate contract (2605 M) had a trading volume of 173,660 with a price increase of 3.47% [2]. - The tin contract (2603 M) recorded a trading volume of 414,180 and a price increase of 3.32% [2]. - The shipping European line contract (260d w) experienced a significant decline of 5.19% with a trading volume of 28,825 [2].