本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 4 日 商品表现 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 免责声明： 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 3 月 4 日收盘，午盘收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一，集运欧线、 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 3 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 3 月 3 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨多 ...

国内期货市场收盘涨跌不一，沪锡涨超8%，铂涨超5%，硅铁涨超3%，钯、锰硅涨超2%。跌幅方面， 氧化铝跌超3%，丙烯、甲醇、塑料、PVC跌超2%。 国内期货市场收盘涨跌不一，沪锡涨超8%，铂涨超5%，硅铁涨超3%，钯、锰硅涨超2%。跌幅方面， 氧化铝跌超3%，丙烯、甲醇、塑料、PVC跌超2%。 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 商品表现 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 26 日 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 2 月 26 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。沪锡、碳酸锂涨超 ...

2026年2月26日，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。沪锡、碳酸锂涨超3%，锰硅、铂涨超2%，燃料油涨近 2%。跌幅方面，集运欧线跌超5%，合成橡胶跌超3%，多晶硅、焦煤、甲醇、钯、PVC跌超2%。 | 序号 | 合约名称 | 県新 | 现手 | 买价 | 卖价 | 十五届出版 | 大事 | 本 | 成交量 | 济路 | 持仓量 | 日常仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 油菜村2609 M | 5795 | 3 | 5783 | 5795 | 3.74% | 1 | d | 73 | 209 | 28 | 10 | | 2 | 碳酸锂2605 M | 173660 | 5 | 173640 | 173660 | 3.47% | 292 | 43 | 402402 5820 | | 375184 | -1853 | | 3 | 护锡2603 M | 414180 | 2 | 414100 | 414500 | 3.32% | 1 | 1 | 163249 13320 | | ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market shows mixed performance with significant gains in certain metals and lithium carbonate, while some indices and fuels experience declines [3][7]. - Notable increases include tin and platinum rising over 7%, silver and palladium increasing over 4%, and lithium carbonate up over 3% [3][7]. - On the downside, the shipping index (European line) fell by more than 4%, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) dropped by over 1% [3][7]. Group 2 - Specific futures contracts such as "护锅2603 m" and "知2606 m" reported increases of 7.62% and 7.03% respectively, indicating strong trading activity [4][8]. - The "沪银2604 M" contract saw a rise of 4.57%, while "碳酸锂2605 M" increased by 3.40%, reflecting positive market sentiment in these sectors [4][8]. - Conversely, contracts like "集运指数2604 m" and "液化气2604 m" experienced declines of 4.76% and 1.70% respectively, highlighting volatility in the market [4][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's previous full - scale tariff imposition was illegal, and the falling US dollar boosted non - ferrous metals. On the first trading day after the holiday, Shanghai zinc rebounded from a low in the morning and the gains narrowed in the afternoon. The main contract closed at 24,625 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan with a 0.74% increase and a decrease of 4,660 lots in positions to 35,129 lots. LME zinc ingot inventory remained at a low level during the domestic holiday. As of the 23rd, LME zinc inventory decreased by 300 tons to 101,250 tons. Domestically, after the holiday, the seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 209,700 tons, a cumulative increase of 49,300 tons compared with before the holiday, with a higher cumulative increase than last year's 37,000 tons, at the average level of the past three years. The spot market trading was light. The Shanghai market had a premium of 10 yuan/ton over the 03 contract, the Tianjin market had a discount of 40 yuan/ton compared with the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market had a discount of 80 yuan/ton over the 03 contract. The spread between Shanghai and Guangdong widened. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see attitude and treat it with an oscillatory mindset, focusing on the post - holiday demand recovery rhythm and inventory depletion situation [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For the Shanghai zinc 2602 contract, the opening price was 24,480 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,630 yuan/ton, the highest was 24,680 yuan/ton, the lowest was 23,355 yuan/ton, the increase was 380 yuan, the increase rate was 1.57%, the position was 5,735 lots, and the position change was an increase of 55 lots. For the 2603 contract, the opening price was 24,205 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,625 yuan/ton, the highest was 24,835 yuan/ton, the lowest was 24,205 yuan/ton, the increase was 180 yuan, the increase rate was 0.74%, the position was 35,129 lots, and the position change was a decrease of 4,660 lots. For the 2604 contract, the opening price was 24,320 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,680 yuan/ton, the highest was 24,865 yuan/ton, the lowest was 24,320 yuan/ton, the increase was 195 yuan, the increase rate was 0.80%, the position was 81,447 lots, and the position change was an increase of 4,439 lots [7] - **Market Situation**: The US Supreme Court's ruling led to a falling US dollar and boosted non - ferrous metals. After the holiday, Shanghai zinc rebounded from a low in the morning and the gains narrowed in the afternoon. LME zinc inventory was low during the domestic holiday, and domestic zinc ingot inventory increased after the holiday. The spot market trading was light, and the spreads between different regions changed [7] 3.2 Industry News - **0 Zinc Transaction Price**: On February 24, 2026, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 24,215 - 24,845 yuan/ton, and there was no transaction for Shuangyan. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 24,145 - 24,775 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market offered a premium of 50 - 60 yuan/ton over the SMM average price for next - month tickets and had no offer against the market [8] - **Ningbo Market**: The mainstream brand 0 zinc transaction price in the Ningbo market was around 24,235 - 24,835 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo offered a premium of 10 yuan/ton over the 2603 contract and a premium of 50 yuan/ton over the Shanghai spot price. In the first time period, Yongchang offered a premium of 20 yuan/ton over the 2603 contract, and Anning offered a premium of 0 - 30 yuan/ton over the 2603 contract [8] - **Tianjin Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots in the Tianjin market was between 24,210 - 24,850 yuan/ton, and Zijin was traded between 24,210 - 24,910 yuan/ton. The 1 zinc ingots were traded around 24,090 - 24,720 yuan/ton. Zijin offered a premium of 0 - 80 yuan/ton over the 2603 contract, Hu zinc was priced at 25,590 yuan/ton, and 0 zinc ingots offered a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton over the 2603 contract. The Tianjin market had a discount of about 40 yuan/ton compared with the Shanghai market [8] - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream 0 zinc in Guangdong was traded between 24,125 - 24,785 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands offered a discount of 80 yuan/ton over the 2603 contract, and the spread between Shanghai and Guangdong widened. The holders of goods offered a discount of 80 - 50 yuan/ton for Qilin, Feilong, and Lan zinc [8] 3.3 Data Overview - **Graphs**: The report includes graphs such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory (in ten thousand tons), and LME zinc inventory (in tons), with data sources from Wind, SMM, and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12]

国泰君安期货市场分析师 张驰宁 Z0020302 农历新年后的首个交易日，国内期货市场迎来强势开局。其中，碳酸锂期货表现尤为抢眼，主力合约 LC2605开盘即跳空高开，盘中最高触及161，640元/吨，领涨商品市场，成为节后资金关注的焦点之 一。 图片来源：同花顺期货通 总体来说，当前碳酸锂市场受情绪和消息面驱动明显，波动剧烈。虽然供给端有扰动故事，但需求端的 实际复苏节奏，特别是节后下游企业的复工和补库强度，仍需进一步观察验证。此外，海外关税政策变 化复杂，且产业链提价后也可能抑制部分采购需求，后续仍存在不确定性。建议投资者理性看待节 后"开门红"行情，避免盲目追高，注意控制仓位，做好风险管理。 资料来源：金投网、金十数据、国泰君安期货研究所 截稿时间：2026年2月24日10点14分 异动逻辑：供给扰动与政策利好共振 l 供应端，扰动因素叠加 增强了市场的紧张预期。节前江西宜春地区——国内锂云母原料的主产区之一 ——有锂盐工厂突发火灾，事件虽未造成人员伤亡，却不可避免地引发了市场对该区域生产稳定性的担 忧。与此同时，春节期间部分锂盐厂按计划进入季节性检修阶段，这些共同强化了市场对于短期锂盐供 应可能边际收 ...

Market Overview - On February 13, 2026, the domestic futures market opened with more declines than gains, with caustic soda rising over 3% and soybean one and double-sided paper increasing over 2% [5][6] - Soybean meal and soybean two saw nearly a 1% increase [5][6] Declines in Key Commodities - Silver futures dropped over 9%, while SC crude oil fell more than 5% [5][6] - Platinum, palladium, lithium carbonate, and Shanghai tin all decreased by over 4% [5][6] - Shanghai nickel declined over 3%, and both international copper and Shanghai copper fell by more than 2% [5][6] - Other commodities such as stainless steel, low-sulfur fuel oil, PX (paraxylene), and asphalt experienced declines exceeding 1% [5][6]

Report Summary Core View - On February 12, 2026, the A-share market showed a differentiated trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating and consolidating, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index showed stronger trends. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets increased by 159.8 billion yuan compared to the previous day, reaching 2.16 trillion yuan [1]. - The prices of various futures products also showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, market expectations, and international market conditions. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On February 12, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05% to close at 4134.02 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.86% to close at 14283.00 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.32% to close at 3328.06 points. The CSI 300 Index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4719.58, up 5.76 from the previous day [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On February 12, the weighted index of coke showed weak consolidation, closing at 1669.9, down 4.4 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated weakly, closing at 1132.1 yuan, down 5.3 from the previous day [2][3]. - Coking profit is average, with daily production slightly decreasing and inventory slightly increasing. Traders' purchasing willingness is average. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron remains at a low level in the off - season, with average steel profit levels. The daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal is 1179 vehicles. The output of coking coal mines has slightly increased, and the spot auction price is inversely proportional to the futures price, with a slight decline in the成交 price. The total inventory of coking coal has increased significantly, and the winter storage demand is coming to an end [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expectation of global supply surplus, the US sugar continued to decline on Wednesday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fluctuated downward on Thursday due to the decline of US sugar, the reduction of spot prices, and the approaching long - holiday, which led to long - position closing. As of February 10, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 57.5996 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.67%; the sugar content was 12.45%, a year - on - year increase of 0.15%; the sugar production rate was 10.66%, a year - on - year increase of 0.171%; the sugar production was 6.1404 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.17% [4]. Rubber - According to the latest data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in January, automobile sales decreased by 3.2% year - on - year. Affected by this and the holiday effect, the Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated slightly lower on Thursday. In January, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively, with production increasing by 0.01% year - on - year and sales decreasing by 3.2% year - on - year. According to the Passenger Car Association, the retail sales of the national passenger car market in January were 1.544 million, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [4]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, on February 12, the CBOT soybean futures price closed higher. The market expected the improvement of the trade prospects, which promoted the demand for US soybeans and boosted the price. Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach a record high, and the harvesting progress is accelerating. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to be 11.71 million tons in February. The US Department of Agriculture maintained Argentina's soybean production at 48.5 million tons. The rainfall in Argentina's main soybean - producing areas this week is expected to relieve the drought. In the domestic market, on February 12, the main contract of soybean meal M2605 closed at 2790 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. Before the festival, the soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained high, the output of soybean meal increased, and the inventory continued to rise. The procurement of imported soybeans for March shipments is basically completed, and the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in April and May will increase significantly. The pre - festival demand boost effect decreases, and the expectation of supply relaxation is postponed [5]. Live Pigs - On February 12, the main contract of live pigs LH2605 closed at 11540 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous trading day. On the supply side, as the pre - festival slaughter window narrows, the price - holding mentality of the breeding end has loosened, and the incremental slaughter operations of group pig enterprises and individual pig farms have increased. The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs in February is still at a high level, and there is an excess pressure on the suitable - weight pig sources. On the demand side, as the Spring Festival approaches, the phenomenon of residents' stocking increases, which provides phased support for the pig price, but the overall demand boost is limited. In the medium term, the inventory of breeding sows and piglet replenishment are both at high levels, and the subsequent slaughter volume is guaranteed [5]. Palm Oil - On February 12, before the festival, funds in palm oil futures continued to reduce positions to avoid risks, and the futures price fluctuated downward. The main contract P2605 closed with a negative K - line. The highest price was 8932, the lowest price was 8782, and the closing price was 8782, down 1.39% from the previous trading day. According to the data released by the shipping survey agency SGS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 10 is expected to be 273,472 tons, a decrease of 16.1% compared with the same period last month. From February 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 9.16% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 7.58% month - on - month [5]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper (CU2603) closed at 102,330 yuan/ton, with an intraday high of 103,730, a low of 101,840, a trading volume of 114,000 lots, and a position of 147,600 lots. The core driving factors are: macro - level, the US dollar is weak, there is an expectation of domestic stable growth, and funds prefer industrial metals; supply - side, the increment of copper mines is limited, the processing fee is at a low level, and the cost support is strong; spot - market, the price of Yangtze River No. 1 copper is 102,180 yuan/ton (+750), and the price of SMM No. 1 copper is 102,040 yuan/ton (+725), and the linkage between futures and spot is strengthening [5]. Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,850 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 143 lots compared with the previous trading day. Textile enterprises mainly purchase raw materials for rigid demand, the enterprise operating rate remains at a high level, and the inventory of gauze has decreased significantly [5]. Iron Ore - On February 12, the main contract of iron ore 2605 fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.2% and a closing price of 762 yuan. The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased compared with the previous period, the domestic arrival volume also decreased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the steel mill's replenishment demand gradually ended, and the growth space of molten iron is limited. The iron ore price is in a fluctuating trend in the short term [5]. Asphalt - On February 12, the main contract of asphalt 2604 fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.24% and a closing price of 3343 yuan. The asphalt supply remains at a low level, the refinery inventory pressure is not large, the terminal demand continues to shrink, the pre - festival spot trading is清淡, and the asphalt price shows a fluctuating trend in the short term [6]. Logs - The main contract of logs 2603 opened at 776 on Thursday, with a minimum of 776, a maximum of 788, and a closing price of 779.5, with a daily reduction of 830 lots. On the last trading day before the festival, attention should be paid to the support from the spot end and the margin - increasing market before the festival. On February 12, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. Although the overseas market has raised prices, the domestic spot market is stable before the festival, which needs to be verified after the festival. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment on prices [6]. Steel - On February 12, rb2605 closed at 3050 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3218 yuan/ton. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream real estate, infrastructure, and construction sites are on full - scale holiday, the core demand for rebar enters a seasonal vacuum period, and rigid - demand procurement is almost stagnant. Traders and downstream enterprises have basically completed their pre - festival stocking, and their willingness to store for the winter is extremely low, with only a small amount of rigid - demand replenishment, which is difficult to support the price increase. The demand side has become the core factor suppressing the futures market [6]. Alumina - On February 12, ao2605 closed at 2808 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina market is in a delicate balance state, with multiple contradictions intertwined on both the supply and demand sides. On the one hand, the industry inventory pressure continues to be high, and the total inventory of in - factory, in - transit, and downstream raw materials has climbed to the highest level in the same period in the past five years, highlighting the hidden danger of supply surplus. On the other hand, the industry actively adjusts production capacity, the launch of new production capacity is postponed, and positive signals appear on the demand side, which support the market to maintain a stalemate pattern in the short term, and the core contradiction in the market is gradually changing [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - On February 12, al2603 closed at 23,610 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum price will show a weak - fluctuating pattern before the festival to digest the inventory pressure, but the medium - and long - term bottom support is solid, and the deep - decline space is limited. In the short term, the seasonal inventory - accumulation process is not over, and the high inventory will continue to suppress the price. In the long term, the strategic position of electrolytic aluminum in the green energy transformation is stable, and the new - energy vehicle, photovoltaic, and grid - investment fields will continue to provide structural growth demand. Overall, after the pre - festival sentiment and weak - reality correction, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - and long - term under the pattern of tight supply - demand balance [6].