成文日期: 20250919 报告周期:日度 研究品种:豆瓣 研究员:漆建华(从业资格号:F03099134;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0017731) 油期货目报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 今日（20250919）豆油期货市场整体呈现震荡上涨走势。主力 合约 y2601 收于 8,328 元/吨，较上个交易日上涨 22 元/吨，成交量 为 331,651 手，持仓量为 571,426 手，持仓量减少 3,418 手。 图 1 豆油期货主力合约分时图 图片数据来源：WIND 1.2 品种价格 豆油合约总成交量 378,156 手,总持仓量 820,566 手,较前日减 少 3,207 手。 图 2 豆油期货各合约日行情数据 研究热线：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 | | | 商品名称合约名称 开盘价最高价最低价收盘价前结算价结算价储算价涨跌8跌跌1 成交量 | | | | | | | 行者都受益 曹玲妹 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stainless - steel futures rose today, driven by steel mills' price hikes and related variety disk trends. However, due to weak downstream demand in the off - season, the market is in a wait - and - see state with light trading. Technically, there is a callback pressure after the price breaks through the 50 - day moving average and the RSI indicator moves from the oversold area to the middle range. In the short term, stainless - steel futures may maintain a volatile trend [10]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On August 5, 2025, the price of the stainless - steel ss2509 contract fluctuated upward. It opened near the daily low of 12985 points, then dropped to the daily low of 12920 points, and oscillated within this range throughout the day. The price rose at the end of the session and then fell back to the closing price of 12960 points. Trading volume was high at the opening and before the close, with a daily trading volume of 79826 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The 12 stainless - steel futures contracts show a normal market pattern of lower near - term prices and higher far - term prices. Contracts at both ends of the months saw relatively large price increases, while those in the middle months had weak increases. The active contract ss2509 had a position of 85949 lots, a decrease of 1526 lots. Funds entered the stainless - steel variety on that day, and the position of the secondary - leading contract increased by 2863 lots [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basic Data**: In the past 10 trading days, the basis of the active contract ss2509 changed significantly, with a maximum of 470 yuan/ton, a minimum of 25 yuan/ton, and 140 yuan/ton on the day. In the spot market, taking the 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coil plate with rough edges as an example, the prices in Foshan Yongjin, Wuxi Yongjin, Zibo Hongwang, and Shanghai Hongwang were 12750 yuan/ton, 12800 yuan/ton, 12700 yuan/ton, and 12800 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of stainless - steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 102865 tons, a decrease of 60 tons compared with the previous trading day. The recent change in registered warehouse receipts was small, and the overall warehouse receipt quantity remained at a historical high [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: In terms of cost, the price of Indonesian nickel ore remained stable, and the premium of pyrometallurgical nickel ore was maintained at 24 - 25 US dollars/wet ton. The nickel - iron quotation range moved up slightly, mainly concentrated at 920 - 930 yuan/nickel point. High - cost nickel - iron production lines were mostly in a state of reduction or shutdown. In terms of supply, since July, the stainless - steel price has rebounded, and the steel mills' profits have been significantly repaired. However, the production reduction of steel mills in July was less than expected, and the production schedule in August increased further, so there is still supply pressure. According to Steel Union data, the production schedule of the 300 - series in August is 1.7598 million tons, a 3% month - on - month increase. In terms of inventory, the social inventories in Wuxi and Foshan of stainless - steel have been gradually reduced recently, mainly due to the slowdown of market arrivals and the steel mills' price hikes stimulating purchasing demand. But the terminal demand has not improved significantly, mainly for just - in - time replenishment, and the tariff policy has uncertainties for exports [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook The stainless - steel futures rose today, affected by steel mills' price hikes and related variety disk trends. Due to weak downstream demand in the off - season, the wait - and - see sentiment is strong and trading is light. Technically, there is a callback pressure after the price breaks through the 50 - day moving average and the RSI indicator moves from the oversold area to the middle range. In the short term, stainless - steel futures may maintain a volatile trend [10].