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快递行业7月月报:“反内卷”逐步落地,期待8月行业价格修复-20250821
Guohai Securities· 2025-08-21 13:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the logistics industry [1] Core Insights - In July 2025, the express delivery industry experienced a year-on-year business volume growth of 15.1%, outpacing the growth of physical online retail sales at 8.3% and social consumer retail sales at 3.7% [6][14] - The trend of small parcel delivery continues, driving rapid growth in express package volume [14] - The average revenue per ticket in the express delivery industry was 7.36 yuan in July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.33% and a month-on-month decline of 1.76% [21] - The report anticipates a price recovery in August 2025 due to the "anti-involution" trend in the industry [6] Industry Volume and Price - In July 2025, the year-on-year growth rates for express delivery business volume in first, second, and third-tier regions were +14.2%, +16.8%, and +28.0%, respectively [34] - The average revenue per ticket in first, second, and third-tier regions showed year-on-year declines of -4.7%, -7.2%, and -12.1%, respectively [34] Company Performance - In July 2025, the express delivery business volume growth rates for YTO Express, Yunda, Shentong, and SF Express were +20.81%, +7.56%, +11.90%, and +33.69%, respectively, with the industry average at 15.1% [43] - The year-on-year decline in average revenue per ticket for YTO Express, Yunda, Shentong, and SF Express was -7.14%, -3.54%, -1.50%, and -14.02%, respectively [44]