Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The express logistics sector is experiencing resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profitability. The long-term outlook for e-commerce express logistics is positive due to healthy competition [3][13] - The shipping sector is expected to benefit from the OPEC+ production increase and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable improvement in VLCC freight rates anticipated in Q4 2025 [13] - The aviation industry is seeing stable demand growth, with supply chain issues leading to increased costs for airlines. The overall passenger demand is projected to grow by 10.4% in 2024, outpacing capacity growth [9][14] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In September 2025, major express companies reported improved performance, with YTO, Shentong, and Yunda achieving business volumes of 2.627 billion, 2.187 billion, and 2.110 billion pieces, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 13.64%, 9.46%, and 3.63% [3][27] - The average revenue per piece for these companies also saw increases, indicating a trend of rising prices in the express delivery sector [3][27] Shipping and Ports - The implementation of new port fees between China and the US is expected to create a dual market structure, granting strategic pricing power to compliant shipping capacities [5] - China has secured pricing power for iron ore, marking a significant shift in global commodity trade dynamics [6] - The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 12.9% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates [7] Aviation - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that supply chain bottlenecks are delaying aircraft production, leading to increased costs for airlines, estimated to exceed $11 billion in 2025 [9] - Chinese airlines collectively oppose the US Department of Transportation's proposed flight restrictions, highlighting concerns over operational impacts [10] Road and Rail - National logistics operations were reported to be running smoothly, with significant increases in highway freight traffic [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to enhance electric vehicle charging infrastructure along highways by 2027 [12] Overall Market Performance - From October 13 to October 17, 2025, the transportation sector index increased by 0.73%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 1.47% [18]

四家A股上市快递披露的9月业绩显示，圆通、韵达、申通三大快递单票收入集体增长，顺丰降幅环比收窄。 | A 股上市快递 9 月业绩 | | --- | | 企业 | 业务量 | 増速 | 收入 | 増速 | 単票收入 | 増速 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 顺丰 | 15.04 亿票 | 31.81% | 208.54亿 | 14.21% | 13.87 元 | -13.31% | | 園通 | 26.27 亿票 | 13.64% | 57.99 亿 | 14.89% | 2.21 元 | 1.09% | | 韵达 | 21.10 亿票 | 3.63% | 42.52亿 | 4.14% | 2.02 元 | 0.50% | | 申通 | 21.87 亿票 | 9.46% | 46.33 亿 | 14.89% | 2.12 元 | 4.95% | 亿豹网发现，行业反内卷的成效正在进一步释放，通达系快递实现量价齐升。两通一达9月收入增速均明显高于业务量增速，单票收入环比上涨明显。 其中，圆通9月单票收入环比上涨0.06元，韵达环比上涨0.1元，申通环 ...

送放心 交通运输/ 27 776 2025 年 10 月 20 日 版 发行业 王易 A0230525050001 wanqyi@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 vanhai@swsresearch.com 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 联系人 王易 (8621)23297818× wangyi@swsresearch.com 本期投资后示: 事件: 快递公司发布 9 月月报。圆通速递 9 月完成业务量 26.27 亿件,同比增长 ● 13.64%，单票收入 2.21 元，同比增长.1.4%；申通快递 9 月完成业务量 21.87 亿件, 同比增长 9.46%，单票收入 2.12 元，同比增长 4.95%；韵达股份 9 月完成业务量 21.10 亿件，同比增长 3.63%，单票收入 2.02 元，同比增长 0.50%。 申万宏源研究微信服务号 证券分析师 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 季度涨价初步兑现至收入 注 Q4 业绩弹性 快递行业点评 相关研究 9 月快递业务量增速延续 8 月趋势，反内卷推动下行业单价 ...

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输/ 物流 2025 年 10 月 20 日 三季度涨价初步兑现至收入端，关 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 联系人 王易 (8621)23297818× wangyi@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证券分析师 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 注 Q4 业绩弹性 看好 ——快递行业点评 - ⚫ 事件：快递公司发布 9 月月报。圆通速递 9 月完成业务量 26.27 亿件，同比增长 13.64%，单票收入 2.21 元，同比增长.1.4%；申通快递 9 月完成业务量 21.87 亿件， 同比增长 9.46%，单票收入 2.12 元，同比增长 4.95%；韵达股份 9 月完成业务量 21.10 亿件，同比增长 3.63%，单票收入 2.02 ...

极兔速递-W(01519)涨近4%，截至发稿，涨3.64%，报10.25港元，成交额3259.28万港元。 申万宏源指出，公司新市场件量高增，主要得益于公司的持续投入并日益深化和电商平台的合作。另一 方面，25Q3快递行业在反内卷政策推动下单价持续上行，公司三季度利润有望修复。8月以来快递反内 卷持续推进，产粮区快递价格持续提升，8月各快递公司经营月报显示通达系单价环比均有所提升，9月 全国各地均已陆续跟进涨价，看好行业单价继续提升带来的公司利润修复。 大和发布研报称，极兔第三季总包裹量同比增长23%至76.77亿件，其中东南亚包裹量表现突出，同比 增长78.7%至约20亿件，超出管理层及该行预期。该行认为东南亚快递市场已进入新发展阶段，因平台 竞争加剧，以及市占率整合。考虑到极兔的市场定位及具竞争力的成本，相信公司可以在新增长阶段占 有优势。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping and aviation sectors, recommending specific companies such as China Shipbuilding and China Eastern Airlines, indicating a favorable investment environment [4][3]. Core Insights - The shipping sector is experiencing a historical opportunity as three negative factors (policy, exchange rates, and ship prices) are reversing to positive influences. The Clarksons second-hand ship price index is steadily rising, and the current market value of Chinese shipbuilding is at a historical low, suggesting potential for recovery [4]. - The aviation sector is poised for significant improvement due to unprecedented constraints in aircraft supply and an aging global fleet. The report anticipates a golden era for airlines as passenger demand increases and operational efficiencies improve [4]. - The oil transportation market is showing signs of recovery, with VLCC rates increasing by 10% week-on-week, driven by strong demand and supply constraints [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - The report highlights a reversal of negative influences in the shipping sector, with the Clarksons second-hand ship price index breaking through previous highs. The current market value of Chinese shipbuilding is at a historical low, with potential for recovery to historical averages [4]. - Recommended stocks include China Shipbuilding, Sumec, and China Shipbuilding Defense, with a focus on bulk oil tanker stocks such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [4]. Aviation Sector - The report notes that the aircraft manufacturing chain is facing unprecedented challenges, with supply constraints expected to persist for the next 5-10 years. Airlines are expected to benefit from increased passenger volumes and improved operational efficiencies, leading to significant profit growth [4]. - Recommended stocks in the aviation sector include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [4]. Oil Transportation - The report indicates that the oil tanker market is experiencing a resurgence, with VLCC rates increasing significantly. The demand for oil transportation is expected to strengthen, supported by seasonal demand and supply constraints [4]. - The report also notes that the market for smaller oil tankers is catching up, with rates for Suezmax and Aframax tankers rising sharply [4]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with expectations for price stabilization and profit recovery. The report outlines three potential scenarios for the industry, emphasizing the importance of monitoring quarterly performance [4]. - Recommended stocks include Shentong Express and YTO Express, with a focus on companies benefiting from e-commerce growth in Southeast Asia [4]. Rail and Road Transport - The report highlights the resilience of rail freight and highway truck traffic, with steady growth expected. The report suggests that traditional high-dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts are worth attention [4].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Positive" rating for the express delivery industry, marking it as the first rating issued [1]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a significant growth in business volume, with a year-on-year increase of 12.3% in August 2025, outpacing the growth of physical online retail sales at 7.1% and social consumer retail sales at 3.4% [5][8]. - The trend of smaller packages in express delivery continues, contributing to rapid growth in business volume [5][8]. - The average revenue per package in the express delivery industry was 7.37 yuan in August 2025, showing a year-on-year decline of 7.16%, although there was a slight month-on-month increase of 0.13% [5][16]. - The report anticipates a price recovery in the express delivery sector due to the ongoing "anti-involution" efforts within the industry [5][25]. Summary by Sections Industry Volume and Price - The express delivery industry maintains high growth, with business volume growth outpacing both online retail and overall retail sales [5][8]. - The trend of smaller packages continues, with the average value of a single express package decreasing to 63.0 yuan, down 4.62% year-on-year [13][15]. - The competitive pricing environment has led to a decline in average revenue per package, but there are expectations for stabilization in pricing due to industry adjustments [5][16]. Company Volume and Price - In August 2025, the business volume growth rates for major companies were as follows: YTO Express at +11.06%, Yunda at +8.72%, Shentong at +10.0%, and SF Express at +34.80%, with SF Express outperforming the industry average [20]. - The average revenue per package for these companies showed significant declines, particularly for SF Express at -15.32% year-on-year, indicating a substantial impact from changes in business structure [24][28].

2025 年 10 月 15 日 极兔速递-W (01519) 上 市 公 司 交通运输 ——东南亚维持高景气，新市场打开新增长曲线 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万美元） | 8849 | 10259 | 12719 | 16015 | 20449 | | 同比增长率（%） | 21.77% | 15.93% | 23.97% | 25.92% | 27.69% | | 调整后净利润（百万美元） | -432 | 200 | 368 | 592 | 853 | | 同比增长率（%） | - | - | 83.91% | 60.77% | 43.94% | | 每股收益（美元/股） | -0.05 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.09 | | 净资产收益率（%） | -15.72% | 7.09% | 11.67% | 15.93% | 18.66% ...

Group 1: Shipping Industry - The implementation of mutual port fees between China and the US is expected to impact over 40% of shipping capacity, with Chinese shipping companies being the most affected [1][20][21] - Different shipping segments will experience varying degrees of impact, with oil and dry bulk sectors facing greater challenges compared to container shipping [1][20] - Short-term price fluctuations may occur due to initial chaos from the new policies, but overall, the impact on freight rates is expected to be limited [1][20] Group 2: Aviation Industry - Domestic passenger flight volumes have decreased slightly post-National Day, but overall traffic remains above 2019 levels, indicating a recovery trend [2][33] - The average domestic ticket price is stable, with a slight year-on-year increase, suggesting a balanced supply-demand dynamic in the aviation market [2][34] - The aviation sector is expected to see continued recovery in profitability as the supply-demand gap narrows, with recommendations to invest in major airlines like China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines [2][34] Group 3: Express Delivery Industry - The "anti-involution" policy has led to price increases across approximately 90% of express delivery volumes in China, indicating a shift towards more sustainable competition [2][43][44] - The profitability of express delivery companies is anticipated to improve in the fourth quarter, driven by seasonal demand and the effects of the "anti-involution" measures [2][43][44] - Major express companies like SF Express and ZTO Express are expected to see significant growth in profitability in 2025, with projected earnings growth of 15-20% for SF Express [2][54] Group 4: Logistics Sector - The logistics company DeBang's revenue has shown double-digit growth, but profitability has been under pressure due to increased transportation costs [2][66][67] - The company is focusing on enhancing its service quality and optimizing its product structure to improve margins in the future [2][66][67]

国信证券近日发布交通运输行业10月投资策略：由于国庆假期结束，上周整体和国内客 运航班量环比有所下降，整体/国内客运航班量环比分别为-0.6%/-0.6%，整体/国内客运航班 量分别相当于2019年同期的111.2%/116.3%，国际客运航班量环比下降0.4%，相当于2019年 同期的88.3%，近期国际油价略低于去年同期水平。 顺丰控股虽然短期业绩表现承压，但是公司强调"先有后优"的战略，我们预计公司四季 度的业绩有望实现改善且回归正规，明年公司的盈利能力将继续实现提升，明年公司业绩有 望实现15-20%的较快增长，2025年PE估值约18倍，维持推荐；2）在"反内卷"政策指导下， 通达系价格开始企稳回升，公司下半年盈利将确定性改善，建议紧密跟踪行业"反内卷"政策 的持续性及竞争格局变化，推荐中通快递、圆通速递、申通快递、韵达股份。 投资建议：建议配置具有长期价值的稳健标的，看好经营稳健、风险可控且有望带来稳 定收益的价值龙头。推荐顺丰控股、中通快递、圆通速递、申通快递、韵达股份、春秋航 空、南方航空、中远海能、招商轮船、德邦股份。 风险提示：宏观经济复苏不及预期，油价汇率剧烈波动。（国信证券 罗丹） 【 ...