机构：长江证券 研究员：韩轶超/鲁斯嘉/胡俊文 把握电商平台出海红利，"反内卷"弹性可期。公司管理模式优秀，充分把握中国跨境电商平台扩张机 遇，搭建全球化本土网络。东南亚市场有望持续受益于TikTok 规模扩张，公司以高性价比驱动件量增 长提速，强化量本利正循环。中国市场快递"反内卷"持续落地，广东、浙江和福建等地区价格逐步修 复，有望驱动公司下半年中国区业绩修复。新市场积极拓展合作伙伴，下半年EBIT 转正可期。预计公 司2025/2026/2027 年经调整净利润为3.4/5.5/8.6 亿美元，对应PE 分别为34.8/21.8/13.9X，维持"买入"评 级。 风险提示 事件描述 1、中国区价格竞争超预期； 极兔速递公布2025 年中报：2025H1，公司营业收入为55.0 亿美元，同比增长13.1%；经调整EBITDA 为 4.4 亿美元，同比增长24.2%；经调整净利润为1.6 亿美元；同比增长147.1%。 2、海外政策波动风险； 3、海外电商平台自建物流增长超预期； 4、快递需求增长不及预期。 事件评论 东南亚市场：领先优势持续扩大，单票利润同比提升。2025H1，公司东南亚业务量同比增长57 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue reached $5.5 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.1%. Adjusted net profit was $160 million, a significant increase of 147.1% [2][5]. - The Southeast Asian market benefited from the expansion of e-commerce platforms led by TikTok, driving rapid growth in business volume and profits. The new markets achieved a positive EBITDA for the first time [2][10]. - The Chinese market faced price competition, leading to pressure on single-package profits, but there are signs of profit recovery in the second half of the year [2][10]. Summary by Sections Southeast Asia Market - The company saw a 57.9% year-on-year increase in business volume to 3.23 billion packages, with market share rising by 5.4 percentage points to 32.8%. The average revenue per package decreased by $0.13 to $0.61, while the average cost per package fell by $0.10 to $0.50 [10]. - The adjusted EBIT per package increased by $0.007 to $0.073, with adjusted EBIT growing by 74.0% to $160 million [10]. China Market - In the first half of 2025, the company’s package volume in China grew by 20.0% to 10.6 billion packages, with market share increasing by 0.1 percentage points to 11.1%. However, the average revenue and cost per package both decreased by $0.04 [10]. - The adjusted EBIT per package fell by $0.006 to $0.001, resulting in a 78.3% decline in adjusted EBIT to $10 million due to intensified competition [10]. New Markets - The new markets experienced a 21.7% year-on-year growth in package volume to 1.7 billion packages, with market share increasing by 0.1 percentage points to 6.2%. The average revenue per package rose by $0.04 to $2.18, while the average cost per package also increased by $0.04 to $1.92 [10]. - The adjusted EBIT per package improved by $0.059 to -$0.106, leading to a positive EBITDA of $2 million [10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of e-commerce platforms and the "anti-involution" trend in the Chinese market, which may drive profit recovery in the second half of the year. The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $340 million, $550 million, and $860 million, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 34.8, 21.8, and 13.9 [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with a notable increase in parcel volume and a trend towards "anti-involution" in pricing competition, which is expected to stabilize the market in the medium to long term [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In July 2025, the national express delivery volume reached 16.4 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, while the volume for January to July 2025 totaled 112.05 billion parcels, up 18.7% year-on-year [1][2]. - The express delivery industry's revenue in July 2025 increased by 8.9% year-on-year, while the average revenue per parcel decreased by 5.3%. For the first seven months of 2025, revenue grew by 9.9%, with a 7.4% decline in average revenue per parcel [4]. Group 2: Company Performance - SF Express reported a remarkable business volume growth of 33.7% year-on-year in July 2025, leading the industry, with a 26.9% increase for the first seven months [2]. - Other major express companies such as YTO, Yunda, and Shentong also showed positive growth in July 2025, with year-on-year increases of 20.8%, 7.6%, and 11.9% respectively [2]. Group 3: Market Concentration - The market concentration in the express delivery sector is increasing, with the CR8 (concentration ratio of the top 8 companies) reaching 86.9% for January to July 2025, reflecting a 1.7% year-on-year increase [3]. - In Q2 2025, the market shares of leading companies such as Zhongtong, YTO, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu increased compared to Q1, indicating a trend towards greater market concentration [3]. Group 4: Pricing and Competition - The decline in average revenue per parcel is narrowing, indicating a reduction in price competition due to the "anti-involution" measures being implemented. This trend is expected to ease competitive pressures in the short term while promoting healthy competition in the long term [4]. - The National Postal Administration has emphasized the need to combat "involution-style" competition, with recent meetings aimed at ensuring stable operations and pricing in the express delivery sector [4]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The "anti-involution" measures are anticipated to alleviate competitive pressures, with expectations for profitability recovery in the e-commerce express sector in the latter half of the year. The sustainability of price increases will be crucial for future profitability [5]. - Companies such as SF Express, YTO Express, Zhongtong Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda are highlighted as key investment opportunities due to their strong performance and potential for profit recovery [5].

Investment Rating - The report rates the express delivery industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - In July 2025, the express delivery volume increased by 15.1% year-on-year, with S.F. Holding leading the industry with a volume growth of 33.7%. The overall industry is expected to maintain strong growth momentum, driven by trends such as smaller parcels and e-commerce promotions [6][59] - The report highlights a narrowing decline in express delivery prices, indicating a shift towards healthier competition in the industry. This "anti-involution" trend is expected to ease short-term competitive pressures while ensuring long-term healthy competition [1][56] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In July 2025, the national express delivery volume reached 16.40 billion parcels, up 15.1% year-on-year, with revenue of 1206.4 billion RMB, reflecting an 8.9% increase. The average revenue per parcel was 7.36 RMB, down 5.3% year-on-year [6][59] - For the first seven months of 2025, the total express delivery volume was 1120.5 billion parcels, up 18.7% year-on-year, exceeding the postal bureau's forecast of over 8% growth for the year [6][59] Company Performance - In July 2025, the business volumes for major companies were as follows: S.F. Holding +33.7%, YTO Express +20.8%, Yunda +7.6%, and Shentong +11.9%. For the first seven months, the growth rates were +26.9%, +21.6%, +15.1%, and +19.3% respectively [31][32] - The market shares for these companies in July 2025 were: S.F. Holding 8.4%, YTO Express 15.8%, Yunda 13.2%, and Shentong 13.3% [32] Market Trends - The report notes that the industry concentration is increasing, with the CR8 index rising to 86.9 in the first seven months of 2025, up 1.7 year-on-year. This indicates a growing focus on leading companies in the market [28][59] - The report emphasizes that the "anti-involution" measures initiated by the postal bureau are expected to continue, which will help stabilize the market and promote healthy competition in the long run [56][59] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the easing of competition will reduce pressure on the industry, with expectations for profit recovery in the second half of 2025. Key companies to watch include S.F. Holding, YTO Express, ZTO, J&T, and Yunda [56][59]

七分钟的谈话，深圳商家肖麦提到七次"倒闭"。他总是说，"快倒闭了"、"全倒闭了"、"持续在倒闭"。他的公司几十人，在线上主卖手机壳。"原来还有两 毛钱利润，快递直接涨5毛钱还有利润吗？"他告诉亿邦动力，"那不亏钱吗？" 今年七月，快递行业掀起一场来势汹汹的"反内卷"浪潮。多家快递公司上调快递价格，主要针对0.3kg以下的轻小件，单票涨价幅度普遍在0.3元-0.6元。几 大"产粮区"（快递业务量大、以发件为主的区域），过去是快递价格战重灾区，如今扛起反内卷大旗。 01 快递涨价，从广东向周边蔓延 对许多广东电商卖家而言，刚刚过去的八月是一个猝不及防的"至暗时刻"。 从8月4日起，广东省邮政管理局针对0.3kg的轻小件，底价整体上调0.4元/票，单票均价涨至1.4元以上。落到商家头上，普遍加价0.5元-0.6元。此前，广东 轻小件的单票快递费已卷到1元左右，价格涨幅超过40%。 "就跟那个坐电梯一样，直接飞上去了。"一位商家说，从接到通知到正式涨价，不过短短两天，涨幅也是史无前例。 行动如此"迅猛决绝"，可见快递行业自上而下反内卷的决心。按照广东省邮政管理局要求，各家快递公司均不得低于1.4元成本价揽收，否则将被 ...

事件：2025 年8 月29 日，公司发布2025 年半年报。持续降本提效1H25两项单票核心成本共降9 分钱， 看好快递反内卷背景下，下半年公司业绩修复。 1H25，1）收入：1H25 公司实现营收248.3 亿元，同比+6.8%，实现销售毛利16.8 亿元，同比-31.5%； 毛利率6.8%，同比-3.8pct。2）利润：1H25 公司实现归母净利润5.3 亿元，同比-49.2%；归母净利率 2.1%，同比-2.3pct；扣非归母净利4.5 亿元，同比-45.6%；扣非归母净利率1.8%，同比-1.8pct。3）票 均： 1H25 公司实现单票快递收入1.92 元/票，同比-0.16 元/票；单票利润为0.04 元/票，同比-0.05 元/票；单 票分拣成本0.28 元/票，同比-0.03 元/票；单票运输成本0.31 元/票，同比-0.08 元/票。 单季度看，2025Q2，1）收入：25Q2 公司实现营收126.4 亿元，同比+4.5%，实现销售毛利7.4 亿元，同 比-43.3%；毛利率5.8%，同比-4.9pct。2）利润： 25Q2 公司实现归母净利润2.1 亿元，同比-66.9%；归母净利率1 ...

韵达股份（002120.SZ）2025 年半年报点评 持续降本提效，看好 2H25 反内卷背景下业绩修复 2025 年 08 月 31 日 | 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 48,543 | 54,387 | 61,392 | 67,464 | | 增长率（%） | 7.9 | 12.0 | 12.9 | 9.9 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万元） | 1,914 | 1,818 | 2,204 | 2,477 | | 增长率（%） | 17.8 | -5.0 | 21.2 | 12.4 | | 每股收益（元） | 0.66 | 0.63 | 0.76 | 0.85 | | PE | 12 | 13 | 11 | 9 | | PB | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | ➢ 事件：2025 年 8 月 29 日，公司发布 2025 年半年报。持续降本提效 1H25 两项单票核心成本共降 9 分钱，看好快递反内卷背景下，下半年公司业绩修复。 1H25，1） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for YTO Express [2][5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 35.883 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.19%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.831 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.90% [3] - The business volume grew steadily, with a total of 14.863 billion parcels delivered in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.79% [3] - The decline in single-ticket revenue due to price wars was a significant factor in the decrease in net profit [3][4] - The company has optimized its cost structure, with single-ticket costs decreasing from 2.11 yuan to 2.02 yuan, a reduction of 4.51% [4] - The company is focusing on improving service quality, with a significant reduction in lost parcels and false sign-offs [5] Revenue and Profitability - The company's single-ticket revenue in H1 2025 was 2.19 yuan, down 6.27% from the previous year [3] - The gross profit per single ticket decreased by 25.34% year-on-year, from 0.23 yuan to 0.17 yuan [4] - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.98 billion yuan, 4.66 billion yuan, and 5.15 billion yuan, respectively [5][10] Market Position and Strategy - YTO Express's market share increased from 15.2% to 15.5% year-on-year [3] - The company is expanding its reverse logistics business, which has seen a growth of over 112% [5] - Regulatory attention on price wars is expected to ease competitive pressures, potentially improving profitability [5] Financial Metrics - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 58.794 billion yuan [7] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.15 yuan, 1.35 yuan, and 1.50 yuan, respectively [5][10] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the same years are projected to be 14.9X, 12.7X, and 11.5X [5][10]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in China is undergoing a significant "anti-involution" movement, driven by government regulations and the need to stabilize pricing and service quality in the face of intense competition [2][3][5] Group 1: Background and Context - The phrase "8 mao fa quanguo" (0.8 yuan for nationwide delivery) symbolizes extreme low-price competition in the express delivery sector, which is now being phased out due to recent anti-involution efforts [2] - The central economic work conference in July 2023 emphasized the need to regulate "involutionary" competition across various industries, including express delivery [2][3] - The State Post Bureau has taken a firm stance against "involutionary" competition, aiming to improve service quality and contribute to a unified national market [2][4] Group 2: Regulatory Changes - Starting from July 18, 2023, the minimum price for express delivery in Yiwu, Zhejiang, was raised by 0.1 yuan to 1.2 yuan, with Guangdong following suit on August 4, 2023, increasing the minimum price to 1.4 yuan [2][10] - The new regulations are part of a broader legal framework, including the revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law and the Price Law, aimed at curbing harmful price competition [3][5] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The express delivery industry has experienced a decline in average prices, with the average price dropping to 2 yuan in 2024, and prices in key areas like Yiwu and Guangdong falling below 1 yuan [6] - The industry faces overcapacity and intensified competition, exacerbated by a slowdown in e-commerce growth, leading to fierce customer resource competition [6][7] Group 4: Impact on Stakeholders - The current anti-involution measures are expected to primarily affect e-commerce clients' logistics costs rather than directly impacting end consumers [8][10] - The new pricing regulations are seen as a way to ensure that express delivery companies can maintain profitability while adhering to legal standards [11] Group 5: Future Outlook - The anti-involution movement is anticipated to expand nationwide, with other regions like Fujian, Jiangsu, Tianjin, Beijing, and Hebei expressing intentions to follow suit [11] - The focus on pricing regulation is just one aspect of the broader goal to avoid homogenized competition, with technology upgrades and service innovation being crucial for future growth [11]

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China experienced significant growth in volume, with July 2025 seeing 16.4 billion parcels delivered, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, and a total of 112.05 billion parcels from January to July, up 18.7% year-on-year [1] - The growth is driven by the trend towards smaller packages, e-commerce promotions, and convenient return policies, surpassing the postal administration's forecast of over 8% growth for the entire year [1] - Major players in the e-commerce express delivery sector, such as YTO, Yunda, and Shentong, reported year-on-year volume increases of 20.8%, 7.6%, and 11.9% respectively in July 2025, with year-to-date increases of 21.6%, 15.1%, and 19.3% [1] - SF Express led the industry with a 33.7% year-on-year increase in volume for July 2025, attributed to its operational strategies and incentives for frontline staff [1] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced new VAT policies for express delivery services, effective immediately, which will impact revenue collection for express companies [1] - Industry average revenue per parcel decreased to 7.36 yuan in July 2025, down 5.33% year-on-year and 1.76% month-on-month, influenced by the trend towards smaller packages and ongoing price wars [1] - However, there are indications of potential price recovery in August 2025 due to a shift away from aggressive competition [1][2] Company Insights - Key players in the express delivery sector include ZTO Express, SF Holding, JD Logistics, and YTO International Express, all of which are listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange [3] - The report from Guohai Securities indicates that franchise express companies may see performance recovery in the context of reduced competition [1][2]