Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that ZTO Express has a significant competitive advantage, primarily due to its leading market share, superior network management capabilities, brand premium, stronger stability among franchisees, and robust financial strength [3][14] - In the short to medium term, ZTO is expected to maintain its "quantity and quality" strategy, which, along with price increases and reduced low-cost packages, will optimize the demand structure in the express delivery industry, leading to a continuous increase in market share [3] - In the long term, as the competitive landscape stabilizes, ZTO is likely to develop a diversified service system, enhancing its profitability [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Development Review - The express delivery demand in China has transitioned from rapid growth to steady growth, with the volume expected to increase from 2.34 billion pieces in 2010 to 199 billion pieces by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.5% [1][34] - The competitive landscape has returned to rationality, with price competition being controlled within reasonable limits due to policies aimed at high-quality development [1][52] Company Development Review - ZTO Express has distinguished itself in the competitive landscape through innovative models and strategic foresight, becoming the first private express company to open inter-provincial network buses in 2005 and implementing a paid delivery model in 2007 [2] - The company has consistently led in investments in resources such as trunk vehicles and automation equipment, establishing a virtuous cycle of scale, cost, profit, and quality [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects ZTO Express's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 9.48 billion, 10.59 billion, and 11.78 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.5%, 11.7%, and 11.2% respectively [3][5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12X and 11X for 2026 and 2027, indicating that the stock is still at a low valuation level [3][6]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry faces multiple uncertainties regarding demand and self-discipline policies, but the trend of concentration in market share and profits among leading companies is confirmed. Companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express are recommended, while attention is drawn to the performance elasticity of Shentong Express. Jitu Express is expected to maintain its leading position in Southeast Asia and new markets, and SF Express is noted for its management structure and business line adjustments, presenting bottom-fishing opportunities [1]. Group 1: December Performance Reports - YTO Express reported a revenue of 6.496 billion yuan in December, a year-on-year increase of 7.48%, with a business volume of 2.884 billion tickets, up 9.04%. The average revenue per ticket decreased by 1.43% to 2.25 yuan [2]. - Yunda's December revenue was 4.626 billion yuan, down 1.49% year-on-year, with a business volume of 2.148 billion tickets, down 7.37%. The average revenue per ticket increased by 5.91% to 2.15 yuan [2]. - Shentong Express achieved a revenue of 5.836 billion yuan in December, a significant year-on-year increase of 28.23%, with a business volume of 2.501 billion tickets, up 11.09%. The average revenue per ticket rose by 15.35% to 2.33 yuan [2]. - SF Express's total revenue from express logistics, supply chain, and international business reached 27.339 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.41%. The express business revenue was 20.378 billion yuan, up 3.78%, with a business volume of 1.476 billion tickets, up 9.33%, and an average revenue per ticket of 13.81 yuan [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Insights - The growth rate of express delivery business volume in December was 2.6%, significantly down due to multiple factors such as price increases, the timing of the New Year goods festival, and e-commerce taxes. The State Post Bureau projects an 8% growth rate for express delivery business volume in 2026 [2]. - The industry average price in December was 7.94 yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.31 yuan, indicating ongoing price increases amid the anti-involution trend [2]. - There is a noticeable divergence in business volume growth among companies, with Shentong Express (+11.1%) and SF Express (+9.3%) showing positive growth, while Yunda (-7.4%) experienced a decline. Factors like e-commerce taxes are impacting lower-priced merchants more significantly, exacerbating industry differentiation [3].

Investment Rating - The report rates the logistics industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the express delivery industry is experiencing a divergence in performance among companies, with varying revenue growth rates and business volume changes [2]. - Factors such as price increases in express delivery, the timing of the New Year goods festival, and e-commerce taxes are impacting the growth rates of express delivery business volumes [2]. - The report anticipates that the overall volume growth in January and February will remain stable compared to the previous year, despite the challenges faced in December [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In December, major express companies reported mixed results: - YTO Express had a revenue of 6.496 billion yuan, up 7.48% year-on-year, with a business volume of 2.884 billion tickets, up 9.04% [2]. - Yunda's revenue was 4.626 billion yuan, down 1.49%, with a business volume of 2.148 billion tickets, down 7.37% [2]. - Shentong Express reported a revenue of 5.836 billion yuan, up 28.23%, with a business volume of 2.501 billion tickets, up 11.09% [2]. - SF Holding's total revenue from express logistics, supply chain, and international business was 27.339 billion yuan, up 3.41% [2]. Price Trends - The average industry price in December was 7.94 yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.31 yuan, indicating a trend of price increases in the express delivery sector [2]. - The report notes that the price changes among companies varied, with SF seeing the highest increase of 0.34 yuan [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies such as ZTO Express and YTO Express, which are expected to continue benefiting from industry consolidation and price increases [2]. - It also suggests monitoring Shentong Express for its performance elasticity and highlights Jitu Express's growth potential in Southeast Asia and new markets [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the transportation sector, including SF Holding, Spring Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, among others [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery of the aviation industry as flight volumes increase, with a focus on the upcoming Spring Festival travel season and the performance of airline ticket pre-sales [6][29]. - SF Holding is noted for its high cash reserves and low valuation, suggesting a strong potential for valuation recovery in the near future [6][21]. - The logistics sector is seeing strong resource integration capabilities, with Shimon Logistics preparing for its upcoming IPO [46]. Summary by Sections 1. SF Holding: High Safety Margin and Low Valuation - SF Holding has substantial cash reserves, with cash accounting for 14.2%, 20.5%, and 16.2% of total market value from 2022 to 2024, providing a strong support for stock prices [9][12]. - The expected shareholder return rate for 2025E and 2026E is projected to reach 3.8%, with dividend yields of 2.57% and 2.88% respectively [12][15]. - The current PE ratio of SF Holding is at 18X, close to the market's historical low, indicating a potential for valuation recovery as market conditions improve [24][21]. 2. Aviation Tracking: Recovery from Off-Season - Domestic flight volumes increased to 89,086 flights from January 10 to January 16, 2026, a 2.7% rise compared to the previous week, reaching 112% of the 2019 levels [29][30]. - The average daily aircraft utilization rate rose to 7.89 hours, reflecting a 2.1% increase from the previous week [30]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to see 5.39 billion railway passengers, a 5% increase year-on-year, which may positively influence airline ticket sales [6][29]. 3. Comprehensive Logistics Companies: Shimon Logistics IPO - Shimon Logistics has established a strong competitive advantage in the logistics sector, providing long-term services to leading global manufacturing companies [46][48]. - The company is expected to generate revenues of 9.2 billion yuan in 2025, despite a projected decline due to reduced demand from major clients [48][51]. - The logistics business is segmented into comprehensive supply chain services and trunk transportation services, with the former accounting for 76% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [48][49]. 4. Continuous Improvement in the Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector saw a slight decline in revenue in November 2025, with a total of 1,376.5 billion yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year, while the volume increased by 5% [59][62]. - The average revenue per package in the express delivery industry was 7.62 yuan, reflecting a 1.9% increase from the previous month [62][69]. - Companies like SF Holding, Shentong, and Yunda are recommended for their strong performance and potential for price recovery in the express delivery market [80].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is expected to maintain a single-digit growth rate, with a projected year-on-year increase of 5% in November 2025, reflecting a slowdown in growth compared to previous years [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Performance - The express delivery volume during the e-commerce Double Eleven shopping festival is expected to increase by 9% year-on-year, a significant decrease from the 21% growth rate observed in 2024 [1][2]. - The average daily volume during the shopping festival is 1.18 times that of regular days, with a peak daily volume increase of 6.6% year-on-year, indicating a diminishing marginal effect of the shopping festival on consumer spending [2][3]. Group 2: Revenue and Market Share - The implementation of anti-involution policies has effectively increased the revenue per package, with YTO, Yunda, and Shentong seeing revenue increases of 0.16, 0.25, and 0.44 yuan respectively from July to November [3]. - The market concentration in the express delivery sector has stabilized, with the CR8 index remaining at 86.9 in November, indicating a balanced market share among major players [3]. - The market shares for Zhongtong, YTO, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu in Q3 2025 were 19.4%, 15.6%, 13.0%, 13.2%, and 11.3% respectively, showing slight fluctuations [3]. Group 3: Profitability Recovery - The anti-involution measures have contributed to a recovery in profitability, with Zhongtong, YTO, Yunda, and Shentong reporting net profit margin changes of -0.9%, +0.07%, -1.5%, and +0.5% year-on-year respectively [3]. - The trend of profitability recovery is expected to continue into Q4, contingent on the sustained implementation of anti-involution policies [3][4]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment and Competitive Strategies - The anti-involution policies initiated by the State Post Bureau have effectively countered "involution-style" competition, supported by local postal authorities through price and market share supervision [4]. - The positive effects of the anti-involution measures are anticipated to continue, promoting healthy competition and profitability within the industry [4]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The express delivery sector is viewed positively, with recommendations for leading companies such as Zhongtong Express and Jitu Express, which are expected to benefit from improved profitability and high growth in overseas volumes [5]. - SF Express is noted for its proactive market expansion strategy, which is expected to yield positive results as cost control measures are strengthened [5].

国泰海通发布研报称，2025年11月全行业快递件量同比+5%，继续维持个位数增速。反内卷下行业份额 集中趋缓，中通/圆通/韵达/申通25Q3净利率分别同比-0.9/+0.07/-1.5/+0.5pct，环比 +4.8/+0.5/-0.07/+0.6pct，头部企业普遍实现盈利能力修复，预计Q4盈利修复趋势将持续。考虑本轮反内 卷取得的良好效果，以及快递企业盈利修复后的正反馈效应，预计反内卷政策将有望持续，在件量继续 稳健增长的基础上保障行业良性竞争与盈利能力继续修复。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 快递件量增速Q4降至个位数，双十一大促峰值继续平滑 2025年11月全行业快递件量同比+5%，继续维持个位数增速。过去两年轻小件是驱动件量维持较快增长 的重要驱动，2025年7月以来快递反内卷有效推动电商快递行业性价格修复，推测或影响轻小件增长趋 势并提升快递需求品质。其中，电商双十一大促期间件量同比+9%，较2024年大促日均件量21%的增速 放缓，或源于2024年大促首次大幅延长造就高基数，及2025年大促进一步提前启动致件量前移。 大促日均件量是日常的1.18倍，单日件量峰值同比+6.6%，均连续三年收窄，反映大促 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for ZTO Express, J&T Global Express Limited, and S.F. Holding, indicating a positive outlook for the express delivery sector [7][63]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability driven by anti-involution measures, with a recommendation to focus on leading companies such as ZTO Express and J&T Global Express Limited, which are showing high overseas growth [7][63]. - The report highlights that the volume growth of express deliveries has slowed to single digits in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 5% in November 2025, reflecting a trend of maintaining single-digit growth [9][63]. - The anti-involution measures have effectively improved average selling prices (ASP) and profitability across the industry, with notable increases in single ticket revenue for major companies [9][63]. Summary by Sections Investment Advice - The report continues to be optimistic about the express delivery sector, recommending ZTO Express, J&T Global Express Limited, and S.F. Holding as key players to watch [7][63]. Industry Volume and Pricing - Q4 2025 saw express delivery volume growth drop to single digits, with the industry achieving a total of 180.6 billion parcels in November, marking a 5% year-on-year increase [9][63]. - The average single ticket revenue for the express delivery industry was 7.62 RMB in November 2025, reflecting an 8.3% decline year-on-year but a 1.9% increase month-on-month [19][63]. - The report notes that the share of intercity express delivery continues to rise, while the share of same-city delivery has decreased slightly [23][24]. Company Performance - S.F. Holding's volume growth outpaced its peers, with a year-on-year increase of 20.13% in November 2025, while other major companies like YTO and Yunda also showed positive growth [35][36]. - The report indicates that profitability is recovering across major companies, with net profit margins for ZTO, YTO, Yunda, and Shentong showing improvements in Q3 2025 [46][63]. Long-term Outlook - The report suggests that the express delivery industry is moving towards healthy competition, with leading companies expected to continue to rise in prominence due to their pricing power and market leadership [50][57].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook for the shipping industry, particularly for VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) and related companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential benefits from the political changes in Venezuela, which could lead to increased oil exports and a shift from black market operations to normal market conditions, positively impacting VLCC demand [2]. - New ship prices have shown an upward trend, with a 0.5% increase, indicating a positive market sentiment for shipbuilding [2]. - The report notes a significant drop in VLCC average freight rates, down 36% week-on-week, reflecting seasonal trends and geopolitical tensions [2]. - The aviation sector is expected to experience a significant boost due to rising passenger volumes and a constrained supply chain, suggesting a favorable environment for airlines [2]. - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with potential for profit recovery and industry consolidation [2]. Summary by Sections Shipping Industry - Venezuela's shift to normal market operations could increase oil supply and demand for VLCCs, with a projected increase in compliant VLCC oil transport demand by approximately 1.4% [2]. - The report indicates a notable decline in VLCC freight rates, with Middle East to Far East rates dropping by 45% [2]. - The report recommends companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy due to their favorable positioning in the VLCC market [2]. Aviation Sector - The report emphasizes the ongoing challenges in the aircraft manufacturing supply chain and the aging fleet, which is expected to limit supply while demand continues to grow [2]. - Airlines are anticipated to see significant improvements in profitability, marking a potential golden era for the sector [2]. - Recommended airlines include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, among others [2]. Express Delivery - The express delivery industry is undergoing a transformation, with three potential scenarios outlined: profit recovery, increased competition, and consolidation [2]. - Companies such as Shentong Express and YTO Express are highlighted for their resilience and growth potential [2]. Rail and Road Transport - The report notes stable growth in railway freight and highway truck traffic, with December data showing a slight decrease in volumes but overall resilience [2]. - Investment opportunities in high-dividend stocks and undervalued companies in the highway sector are suggested [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly in light of recent developments in Venezuela and the increase in new ship prices [1][2]. Core Insights - Venezuela's political changes are expected to benefit compliant tanker markets, with a potential increase in oil exports leading to higher demand for Aframax tankers and VLCCs [3][4]. - New ship prices have shown an upward trend, with a 0.5% increase reported, particularly in gas carriers which rose by 1% [3]. - The report highlights a significant drop in VLCC freight rates, which fell by 36% week-on-week, while the Atlantic market remains relatively stable [3][4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market - The report notes that the recent escalation in Venezuela's situation could lead to a 1.4% increase in compliant VLCC oil transport demand and a 4.0% increase for Aframax tankers [3][4]. - The average VLCC freight rate was reported at $43,895 per day, with Middle East to Far East rates dropping to $38,690 per day, a decrease of 45% from the previous week [3][4]. New Ship Prices - New ship prices have increased by 0.5% to 185.59 points, although they are down 1.85% compared to the beginning of 2025 [3][4]. Oil and Product Transport - The LR2-TC1 freight rate increased by 5% to $42,671 per day, supported by tight capacity in previous weeks [3]. - The report indicates a decline in MR average freight rates by 5% to $23,103 per day, with the Atlantic market remaining stable despite the holiday season [3][4]. Air Transport - The report anticipates significant improvements in airline profitability due to supply constraints and increasing passenger volumes, recommending several airlines for investment [3][4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined for future performance [3][4]. Rail and Road Transport - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are expected to maintain steady growth, with recent data showing a slight decrease in volumes [3][4].

智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，中长期来看，考虑到当前贸易形势风险仍存、红海航线存在 复航可能性、且仍有较多运力会在年内交付，预计2026年集运运价有较大压力。未来国内经济回暖后航 空业绩具有较大的弹性空间。该行建议低点配置航空板块，风险收益比较优，以时间换空间。目前，快 递反内卷政策的持续性较强，预计有望持续明年春节。得益于反内卷提价，该行预计四季度快递公司的 单票利润环比均将继续提升，业绩弹性有望兑现。 国信证券主要观点如下： 航运 油运方面，由于进入圣诞假期，市场交易清淡，中东线运价高位持续回调，近期美国多次扣押委内瑞拉 附近的油轮，造成市场船只的紧张情绪，短期有事件催化作用。该行认为虽然油运已经逐步进入淡季， 但是当下由于原油运输合规市场需求结构优化，油运供需结构仍然处于中长期的改善周期当中，运价中 枢有望继续上行，继续推荐中远海能、招商轮船。集运方面，短期受春节前传统旺季预期推动，运价仍 在上升通道，而近期马士基旗下货船刚完成了近两年来的首次红海航行，短期红海大规模复航仍然面临 一些挑战，但整体来看2026年复航可能性增加。中长期来看，考虑到当前贸易形势风险仍存、红海航线 存在复航可能性、且 ...