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瑞银:油价波动令电动车总持有成本变吸引 比亚迪股份(01211)、宁德时代(03750)与理想汽车(02015)具良好风险回报
智通财经网· 2026-03-11 09:48
Group 1 - UBS reports that some Chinese automotive and new energy stocks have risen, with Geely Automobile's stock price increasing by 8.5% to HKD 17.44 and CATL rising by 7.5% to HKD 591 [1] - The current situation regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict is similar to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, which led to spikes in oil and lithium prices, increasing the operating costs of fuel vehicles and the manufacturing costs of electric vehicles [1] - UBS maintains a "buy" rating on BYD, CATL, and Li Auto, citing favorable risk-return characteristics [1] Group 2 - The report estimates that the manufacturing costs for a pure electric vehicle (BEV), extended-range electric vehicle (EREV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), and internal combustion engine vehicle (ICE) have increased by approximately RMB 7,000, RMB 6,000, RMB 5,000, and RMB 3,000 respectively compared to autumn 2025 [1] - If oil prices remain at current levels, the annual operating cost for fuel vehicles may increase by about RMB 2,000, slightly improving the economic viability of electric vehicles relative to fuel vehicles [1] - The report highlights that the current situation differs from four years ago due to a more moderate increase in metal prices, significantly improved competitiveness of electric vehicle products, and increased overseas sales helping to alleviate commodity cost pressures [2] Group 3 - UBS notes that Chinese electric vehicle stocks have underperformed the Hang Seng Index by about 10% this year, with the first quarter's weak demand already reflected in stock prices [3] - The upward pressure on commodity prices has been partially absorbed by investors, and current oil price fluctuations make electric vehicles more attractive from a total cost of ownership perspective [3] - If market expectations regarding the transmission of commodity costs to vehicle prices lead to inflation, demand may recover faster than investors anticipate, warranting renewed attention [3]