2025 年乘用车批发 2,379.7 万辆（+6%），新能源销量 1,530 万辆 （+26%），渗透率达 52%；受以旧换新政策收官影响，Q4 出现阶段 性回调。 吉利在插混与纯电双赛道增量均居榜首；小米纯电增量 27.3 万辆；比 亚迪插混份额遭吉利挤占；理想因车型老化增程板块减量 15.8 万辆。 2026 年政策退坡：以旧换新转为比例补贴且力度减弱，新能源购置税 按 5%征收，插混纯电续航门槛由 43km 提升至 100km。 出口结构优化：2025 年出口 573.1 万辆（+21%），新能源占比首破 40%；奇瑞总量第一，比亚迪增速 144%领跑，市场重心转向拉美与中 东。 高端化与智能化：30 万+市场 BBA 份额下滑 6pct，赛力斯、江淮尊界 等自主品牌通过科技溢价突围；BBA 加速接入华为、Momenta 等本土 智驾供应链。 2027 年三大趋势：大电池长续航插混成主流；自主"9 系"旗舰深化高 端化；泛越野与 MPV 细分市场在智能化驱动下加速扩容。 Q&A 2026 年乘用车：以高端、出海为矛破局 20260304 摘要 国泰海通对乘用车行业 2026 年投资策略的核心判断与推荐 ...

Core Insights - The overall retail sales of passenger cars in January decreased by 13.9% year-on-year, with a total of 1.544 million units sold. The retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 596,000 units, representing a penetration rate of 38.6%, down 3 percentage points from the previous year [1][11]. Retail Market Overview - In January, the retail sales of self-owned fuel passenger cars were 250,000 units, up 17% year-on-year, while self-owned NEVs sold 226,000 units, marking a significant increase of 115%. NEVs accounted for 47.5% of self-owned exports, indicating growing international influence [2]. - The retail sales of self-owned brands totaled 890,000 units, down 18% year-on-year, with a domestic market share of 57.5%, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points [2]. - Mainstream joint venture brands sold 470,000 units, down 4% year-on-year, with German brands increasing their market share to 19.8%, up 1.4 percentage points [2]. Production and Wholesale Analysis - In January, the production of passenger cars was 2.003 million units, down 4.4% year-on-year. The wholesale volume was 1.973 million units, a decrease of 6.2% year-on-year [4]. - The wholesale of self-owned brands was 1.326 million units, down 8%, while luxury car wholesale increased by 4% to 228,000 units [4]. - The overall wholesale landscape is changing, with some mid-tier companies showing strong performance, such as SAIC-GM-Wuling and NIO [4]. New Energy Vehicle Insights - The production of NEVs reached 938,000 units, a slight decrease of 0.6% year-on-year, while wholesale sales were 864,000 units, down 3.3% [5][6]. - NEV retail sales were 596,000 units, down 20% year-on-year, with conventional fuel vehicles selling 948,000 units, down 10% [7]. - NEV exports reached 286,000 units, a remarkable increase of 103.6%, accounting for 49.6% of total passenger car exports [11][12]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The new energy vehicle market is expected to face challenges in February due to the impact of the Spring Festival, which may lead to lower sales volumes [16]. - The transition from merely selling cars to exporting entire industrial chains is anticipated, indicating a shift towards quality growth in the automotive export sector [17].

前 言 车百智库基于我国乘用车终端销量数据，从区域、城市线级、典型城市等维度，对新能源乘用车销量的区域发展路径，下沉市场潜力及典型城市的发展模 式展开分析。 区域发展特征 我国新能源汽车产业的区域发展脉络清晰，呈现出从点到面、区域性扩散的特征。先是东南沿海地区率先起步，随后围绕珠三角、长三角、京津冀及川渝 四大核心经济区形成多点开花的发展格局，最终逐步向东北、西北等内陆省份延伸普及。 从区域分布特征来看，华东、华南地区的新能源汽车渗透率位居全国前列，占比约达54%；华北与西南川渝地区紧随其后，处于渗透率第二梯队；而西 北、东北受冬季寒冷气候的影响，新能源渗透率整体偏低，在新能源车型中，消费者往往青睐续航无焦虑的插电混动车型。 西部与东北地区新能源汽车市场仍蕴藏较大发展潜力，需立足区域资源禀赋与气候特征，实施差异化推广策略。西部区域内，川渝、陕西两省新能源汽车 产业发展走在前列，可充分发挥其产业集群优势与市场引领作用，形成辐射周边省市的联动发展效应。内蒙古、新疆地区坐拥丰富的风光清洁能源资源， 可重点探索车网互动模式，推动新能源汽车深度参与电网储能与调峰，同时结合当地旅游产业特色，拓展新能源汽车自驾租赁等应用场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The German government has reintroduced electric vehicle purchase subsidies to support the domestic electric vehicle industry, offering up to €6,000 for new electric vehicle purchases [3]. Group 1: Subsidy Details - The subsidy is available for private consumers and applies to new registrations of fully electric vehicles, certain plug-in hybrid vehicles, and range-extended electric vehicles starting from January 1, 2026 [3]. - The subsidy amount ranges from €1,500 to €6,000, depending on vehicle type, household size, and income level [3]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The total scale of the subsidy program is set at €3 billion over three years, expected to support approximately 800,000 electric vehicles [3]. - Following the termination of the previous subsidy program at the end of 2023, the registration of fully electric vehicles in Germany dropped significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of over 27% to 380,000 in 2024 [3].

此前，德国2016年起实施的电动汽车补贴政策因财政压力于2023年底终止，直接导致2024年该国电动汽 车销量下滑27%至38万辆，不过2025年销量有所回升，新注册电动汽车数量达到约54.5万辆。 德国汽车工业协会对新补贴计划表示欢迎，预计2026年德国电动汽车注册量将同比增长17%，达到近 100万辆。该协会同时指出，密集的充电网络与价格合理的能源供应对电动汽车可持续发展至关重要， 若不配套完善基础设施，补贴计划效果恐难持久。德国汽车研究中心负责人则认为，当前电动汽车市场 份额稳步上升主要源于产品价格更具吸引力，补贴缺乏经济意义，只会增加国家预算压力。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 根据德国环境部发布的公告，本次补贴计划总额达30亿欧元，面向私人消费者，适用于2026年1月1日起 新注册的纯电动汽车、部分插电式混动汽车及增程式电动汽车。补贴金额按照车辆类型、家庭人口和收 入水平分为1500欧元至6000欧元不等，预计可支持约80万辆新车的购买或租赁，政策将追溯至2026年初 生效并持续至2029年。 德国环境部长卡斯滕·施耐德表示，这项新计划不设置任 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission has adjusted its "Automotive Industry Package," changing the 2035 ban on combustion engine vehicles to a target of 90% reduction in carbon emissions compared to 2021 levels, allowing for the continued sale of certain non-pure electric vehicle models in the EU market, marking a significant revision of the EU's green transportation transition plan [1] Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The new proposal allows for the sale of various traditional powertrain technologies, including plug-in hybrid vehicles, range-extended electric vehicles, mild hybrid vehicles, and internal combustion engine vehicles that meet specific low-carbon fuel standards [1] - A more flexible transitional reduction target is set for 2030 to 2032, aiming to balance emission reductions with industry sustainability [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - The automotive industry contributes 7% to the EU's GDP and provides nearly 14 million jobs, highlighting its significance to the EU economy [2] - The adjustments are seen as a way to enhance the competitiveness of the automotive sector and create demand for cleaner commercial vehicles, thereby strengthening the EU's manufacturing and supply chains [2] Group 3: Industry Reactions - Some major European automakers support the proposal, viewing the relaxation of a single technology route as beneficial for addressing market pressures, with companies like Volkswagen and BMW acknowledging the feasibility of internal combustion technology in the near future [3] - Conversely, some manufacturers, such as Volvo, criticize the reversal of any bans as a betrayal, arguing it undermines confidence in future regulations [3] Group 4: Environmental Concerns - Environmental groups criticize the adjustment as a retreat from the EU's leadership in climate policy, arguing that the 90% reduction target undermines the push for electric vehicle adoption and could slow down emission reduction efforts [4] - The proposal has sparked mixed reactions among EU member states, with countries like Germany and Italy welcoming it, while Spain opposes it due to its ongoing transition to electric vehicles [4] Group 5: Future Considerations - The plan must undergo review by the EU Council and European Parliament before becoming law, a process expected to take months and likely to involve further discussions and revisions on details such as compensation mechanisms and market regulation [5] - The adjustments reflect a policy balancing act between climate goals and industrial realities, highlighting the tension between long-term policy commitments and immediate industry pressures [5]

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission has adjusted its "Automotive Industry Package," changing the 2035 ban on combustion engine vehicles to a target of 90% reduction in carbon emissions compared to 2021 levels, allowing for the continued sale of certain non-pure electric vehicle models in the EU market, marking a significant revision of the EU's green transportation transition plan [1] Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The new proposal allows for the sale of various traditional powertrain technologies, including plug-in hybrid vehicles, range-extended electric vehicles, mild hybrid vehicles, and internal combustion engine vehicles that meet specific low-carbon fuel standards [1] - The plan includes more flexible transitional reduction targets from 2030 to 2032, aiming to balance emission reductions with industry sustainability [1] - The European Commission emphasizes that the plan provides a pragmatic policy framework to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 while granting manufacturers greater flexibility [1] Group 2: Industry Reactions - Some major European automakers support the proposal, viewing the relaxation of a single technology route as beneficial for addressing market pressures; Volkswagen calls the proposal "economically reasonable," while BMW acknowledges the feasibility of internal combustion technology in the foreseeable future [3] - However, some manufacturers and industry associations criticize the proposal; Volvo, which has heavily invested in electrification, views any reversal of bans as a "betrayal," and Stellantis argues that the plan fails to address deep-seated issues in the light commercial vehicle sector [3] Group 3: Environmental and Political Perspectives - Environmental groups criticize the adjustment as a retreat that undermines the EU's reputation as a global climate leader, arguing that the 90% reduction target could slow the adoption of electric vehicles and impact the overall climate neutrality goal for 2050 [4] - Political reactions among EU member states are mixed; countries like Germany and Italy welcome the proposal as aligning with current industry realities, while Spain opposes it due to its ongoing transition to electric vehicles [4] - The European Parliament's Green Party expresses concerns that undermining the future of electric vehicles is a significant error that could harm public health and competitiveness [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The plan must undergo review by the EU Council and European Parliament before becoming law, a process expected to take several months and likely to involve further discussions and revisions on details such as compensation mechanisms and market regulation [5] - The adjustment reflects a policy trade-off between climate goals and industrial realities, highlighting the tension between long-term policy aspirations and practical implementation amid global technological competition [5]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union's plan to relax the ban on fuel vehicles has faced opposition from Stellantis, which argues that the revised policy lacks a clear growth roadmap for the automotive industry [1] Group 1: Stellantis' Position - Stellantis CEO, Antonio Filosa, criticized the EU's proposal, stating it does not provide necessary measures for the automotive industry to return to growth [1] - Filosa indicated that without growth, it is difficult to consider additional investments, which are essential for building a resilient supply chain crucial for European employment and prosperity [1] - The EU's plan allows manufacturers to emit 10% of 2021 levels and continue selling some fuel and hybrid vehicles, but concerns arise regarding the feasibility and cost of offsetting emissions through low-carbon steel and sustainable fuels [1] Group 2: Reactions from the Automotive Industry - The response from the European automotive industry is divided; Renault welcomed the proposal, while the German automotive industry association described it as "disastrous" due to excessive implementation barriers [2] - EU officials maintain that the new emissions offset mechanism preserves the ambition of the original 2035 ban, emphasizing support for the industry and denying any doubts about climate goals [2] - German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil warned manufacturers against relying on internal combustion engines, urging a faster transition to electric vehicles as the future of mobility [2]

【文/观察者网 王恺雯】在欧洲汽车行业承压之际，欧盟委员会当地时间12月16日发布汽车产业一揽子 方案，提议放宽2035年"燃油车禁令"相关要求。 路透社18日援引分析人士和专家观点指出，欧盟新的方案或为欧洲传统车企争取更多时间，以缩小与中 国车企的差距，但从长远来看，未来依然属于电动汽车。 欧盟在2023年决定，从2035年起全面禁售会导致碳排放的新的燃油轿车和小型客货车。但在欧洲汽车行 业协会的不断游说下，欧盟公布的最新方案将2035年新车"零排放"目标调整为较2021年"减排90%"。 报道指出，欧盟此举是为了帮助欧洲车企更好地与发展迅速的中国对手竞争。 新方案允许欧盟在2035年后继续销售插电式混合动力汽车、增程式电动汽车，甚至是传统内燃机车辆。 同时提议设立新的小型纯电动车类别，并对在欧洲制造的车型给予额外积分。 行业分析师指出，欧盟的新方案"基本满足"欧洲车企游说的诉求。 "（欧盟）委员会已允许欧洲汽车业进行选择，并获得了竞争的机会，"战略咨询公司Grant Thornton Stax的董事总经理菲尔·邓恩（Phil Dunne）说。他表示，希望欧洲汽车产业能凭借具有成本竞争力的电 动汽车"赶上中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission has proposed to relax the 2035 ban on the sale of new fossil fuel vehicles, adjusting the "zero emissions" target to a 90% reduction in emissions compared to 2021 levels, allowing for compensation through low-carbon steel and alternative fuels [1] Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The new proposal allows for the sale of plug-in hybrid vehicles, range-extended electric vehicles, mild hybrid vehicles, and internal combustion engine vehicles after 2035 [1] - The reduction target for light commercial vehicles has been lowered from a 50% reduction by 2030 to a 40% reduction compared to 2021 levels [1] - Manufacturers of small economy electric vehicles produced in the EU can earn additional credits in carbon dioxide target accounting [1] Group 2: Industry Pressure - The policy adjustment comes in response to ongoing pressure from Germany, Italy, and the European automotive industry [1] - Industry stakeholders in the electric vehicle sector have warned that relaxing emission reduction targets may weaken investments and further hinder Europe's transition to electrification [1]