小摩强调香港对友邦保险新业务价值(NBV)的贡献约为30%，又指近期香港引入三项监管收紧措施，包 括分红(par)保单的展示上限降低(GL16/28)、前期销售佣金减少(GL16)、与香港风险资本准则(HKRBC) 框架相关的分红业务管理(GL34)。小摩初步认为，离岸销售活动可能放缓，特别是经纪渠道。因此，竞 争减少将带来机会，包括降低收购成本及改善流失率体验展望。 小摩表示，截至2024年12月，友邦保险现有寿险保单，在未来10年未折现可分配收益增至466亿美元(年 增8.6%)。小摩预测此余额将增至487亿美元(按半年增4.5%)，为更高的盈利增长前景提供信心。预计净 自由盈余生成将达24亿美元(年增9%)，截至2025年6月预估自由盈余余额为108亿美元。小摩预计，友邦 保险2025、2026、2027财年新业务价值年增率分别为15%、22%、24%。 （原标题：小摩：升友邦保险(01299)目标价至105港元 维持"增持"评级） 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，友邦保险(01299)今年迄今表现优于大盘，股价自2024年4月 低点46港元上涨27%(恒生指数：23%)，似乎已反映多项正面因素 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that AIA Group has outperformed the market this year, with its stock price rising 27% from a low of HKD 46 in April 2024, compared to a 23% increase in the Hang Seng Index [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Stock Performance** AIA Group's stock price has increased by 27% since April 2024, outperforming the Hang Seng Index which rose by 23% [1] - **Market Focus** The market is likely to focus on the upcoming financial report for the first half of 2025, scheduled for August 22, which may provide new catalysts such as accelerated cash growth, outlook on Hong Kong operations post-regulatory changes, and guidance on total shareholder return (TSR) for 2026 [1] - **Target Price Adjustment** Morgan Stanley has raised its target price for AIA Group from HKD 102 to HKD 105, maintaining an "Overweight" rating due to expectations that the 2026 earnings guidance may be raised or exceed expectations, along with further potential for total shareholder return [1]