Core Viewpoint - The international crude oil prices have been fluctuating downwards, leading to a significant probability of a reduction in domestic refined oil retail prices in China, with an expected decrease of 80 yuan per ton by October 13, 2025 [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - During the current pricing cycle, which spans from September 23 to October 13, international crude oil prices have shown a downward trend [1] - The domestic reference crude oil change rate briefly rose before entering a downward channel, with a calculated adjustment of -1.87% as of October 10 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - The pricing cycle has been extended due to the overlap with the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, affecting market dynamics [1] - Initial increases in oil prices were driven by geopolitical tensions and underwhelming production increases from OPEC+, but these factors have since reversed, contributing to the recent price declines [1] Group 3: Consumer Impact - If the price adjustment occurs as expected, it will mark the eighth reduction in domestic refined oil retail prices this year, potentially lowering consumer fuel costs further [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international crude oil prices have been primarily fluctuating downwards during the current pricing cycle, leading to a temporary rise in domestic crude oil price change rates before entering a downward trend again [1] Group 1: Pricing Cycle Analysis - The current pricing cycle spans from September 23, 2025, to October 13, 2025, and is notably extended due to the overlap with the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [1] - Geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+ production increase plans falling short of expectations have contributed to the recent rise in crude oil prices [1] Group 2: Consumer Impact - If the upcoming price adjustment results in a decrease, it will mark the eighth reduction in domestic refined oil retail prices this year, potentially lowering consumer fuel costs further [1]