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山海:美元走再弱,黄金在强支撑上走出预期的上涨!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-10 02:01
本周行情黄金在相对区间内来回震荡,周一涨,周二跌,周三在3285附近疯狂试探,再次走出上涨空间,并且这波上涨空间相对来讲很 大,自3282开始到现在最高3322,上下游有40美金。大家可以回顾一下山海的思路,在周一大涨山海抓到了3304多单,周二下跌没有抓 到,在下跌后,很多朋友都人心惶惶,担心黄金会持续大跌,看不准方向,但山海明确指出,黄金仍然是多头趋势,下跌只是调整,周三 坚决在3285附近看涨做多,并且坚持到现在,所以周三的这波上涨利润空间又全部抓到。那么,走到现在,周三黄金在低位疯狂的试探, 确定了底部,周四就看多头是否能延续,上涨走高的话,上方就看3345。白银相对来讲走了黄金的延迟下跌力度,现在还没有走出上涨 来,维持之前的看法,白银下方支撑在36,上方看37,37.3,今天试探36考虑交易。 上个交易日的分析大家都看了吧,山海明确提示大家,黄金在低位疯狂试探,3285不破,可以继续看上涨空间,上方关注3325,3345,经 过周三的全天走势,最低在3282,最高在3322,上下有40美金,那么多头的强势有走出来了。不过山海要在这里强调一下,暂时黄金是多 头趋势,但不是绝对的单边走势,而是多头趋势 ...
建信期货PTA日报-20250709
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 01:19
能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 研究员:李金(甲醇) 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 09 日 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工 ...
建信期货PTA日报-20250708
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 01:21
能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 研究员:李金(甲醇) 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 08 日 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工 ...
山海:黄金周内还是多头趋势,不过中期调整也需关注!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-07 03:06
老生常谈的美元指数仍然在低位震荡,在这种极度弱势中,还是关注后市是否能继续下跌,如果空头延续,周期性要看92,88低点,并且不能猜 顶。当然,市场变化莫测,近期美元难以看出大涨大跌的空间,预计会在低位走一段时间的震荡。那么,短期内,黄金的走势也比较难以走出具 体的方向或者单边走势,上周最大的区间在3245/3365,本周在不破此区间的情况下,大概率是震荡走势,如果破位此区间,向下看的话就有可 能会转弱大跌一波至3120,但趋势之下,这汇总可能性不大,向上破位的话,上方还有3385,3400。从技术面来看,日线周期的k线暂时表现偏 弱,k线在布林中轨之下,这种表现有可能是周初的弱势基础,可能会延续一下试探前期低点3310,3285,但如果周初日线反阳收高的话,也会 改变现在的相对弱势,所以,暂时日线也不太好说一定的强弱。H4周期现在区间震荡表现明显,布林收口,均线系统未能发散,看不出强弱的 延续性,所以也是震荡表现,下方支撑在3310,上方压制在3355。那么,在周初就要注意两个关键点的得失,下方看3310,3285支撑,这两个价 位是周初上涨支撑点,不破可以分别做多,而上方也不用过分看,上方看到3330,33 ...
关注第三批“两重”资金推进
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 05:56
宏观日报 | 2025-07-03 关注第三批"两重"资金推进 中观事件总览 生产行业:第三批"两重"资金推进。 1)近日,国家发展改革委安排超3000亿元支持2025年第三批"两重"建设项目。 至此,今年8000亿元"两重"建设项目清单已全部下达完毕。"硬投资"方面,2025年"两重"建设共安排8000亿元支持 1459个项目。"软建设"方面,在重点领域加快推出一批改革创新举措. 服务行业:公积金商转公贷款。 1)广州住房公积金管理中心公开征求《广州商业性个人住房贷款转住房公积金 个人住房贷款实施办法(暂行)》(征求意见稿)意见的公告。实施办法提出,缴存人申请将其在广州市住房公积 金贷款承办银行尚未结清的商业性个人住房贷款余额,当住房公积金个人住房贷款率低于75%时启动商转公贷款; 当个贷率达到85%及以上时可采取防控措施,包括但不限于实行商转公贷款额度管控、预约申请等措施;当个贷率 达到90%及以上时暂停。 数据来源:iFind,华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游:1)能源:国际油价回落较多。2)农业:鸡蛋价格回落。 中游:1)化工:尿素、PX、聚酯开工率有所下行。 下游:1)地产:一、二线城市商品房销售季节 ...
山海:黄金上涨实现了预期,今天看非农数据影响!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-03 02:15
Group 1 - Gold has seen a continuous rise for three days, reaching the target of 3365, with a focus on maintaining a bullish outlook while waiting for pullbacks to enter long positions [2][4] - The ADP data released on Wednesday showed results close to expectations, which is seen as bullish for gold, but the market did not react strongly, indicating a cautious approach to trading [2][5] - The domestic gold market has also shown upward movement, with support levels identified at 775 for Shanghai gold and 766 for Rongtong gold, suggesting potential for further gains after adjustments [5][6] Group 2 - The US dollar index remains weak, which supports the bullish trend in gold, with expectations that if the upcoming non-farm payroll data is positive, gold could reach 3400 [4][5] - International silver has also performed well, reaching a high of 36.6, with a focus on maintaining a cautious bullish stance while waiting for non-farm data [6] - Crude oil has shown effective rebounds, with a current upward trend, and support identified at 64, indicating potential for further gains depending on market news [7]
宏观日报:制造业景气度改善-20250701
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 03:20
宏观日报 | 2025-07-01 经济政策超预期,全球地缘政治冲突 中观事件总览 生产行业:6月制造业PMI改善。 1)国家统计局公布数据显示,6月份,制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.7%, 比上月上升0.2个百分点,制造业景气水平继续改善。从企业规模看,大型企业PMI为51.2%,比上月上升0.5个百 分点,高于临界点;中型企业PMI为48.6%,比上月上升1.1个百分点,低于临界点;小型企业PMI为47.3%,比上 月下降2.0个百分点,低于临界点。 服务行业:关注境外税收政策推进。 1)三部门发布境外投资者以分配利润直接投资税收抵免政策。境外投资者 以中国境内居民企业分配的利润,在2025年1月1日至2028年12月31日期间用于境内直接投资符合条件的,可按照 投资额的10%抵免境外投资者当年的应纳税额,当年不足抵免的准予向以后结转。中华人民共和国政府同外国政府 订立的税收协定中关于股息、红利等权益性投资收益适用税率低于10%的,按照协定税率执行。 数据来源:iFind,华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游:1)能源:昨日国际油价同比下跌较多。2)农业:鸡蛋价格近期回升。 市场定价:全行业信用利差近期小 ...
山海:金银看对了强弱转换,周期性还有大涨空间!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-01 03:00
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold is expected to experience a slow upward trend this week, contrasting with the previous weeks' downward movements, with a potential target of 3350, 3400, and 3430 [2][4] - The dollar index has reached a low of 96.3, showing weak performance with no signs of rebound, which is contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [4][5] - Domestic gold prices are showing a clear upward trend, with support levels at 760 for Shanghai gold and 755 for Rongtong gold, indicating a potential for significant gains if these levels are breached [5][6] Group 2 - Silver is maintaining a bullish trend, with a current price around 36.1 and a target of 36.5 in the short term, while monitoring for potential short positions around 37 [5][6] - The international crude oil market is currently in a bullish trend, with support at 64, and potential upward targets at 67, 69, and 75, depending on market news [6] - Domestic fuel oil is expected to maintain a bullish outlook, with a focus on waiting for pullbacks to enter long positions, aiming for targets around 3000 and 3200 [6]
山海:市场等待PCE数据公布,黄金多空均有机会!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-27 02:32
Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing volatility in gold prices, with both bullish and bearish opportunities available as traders await the release of PCE data, which may influence gold's movement [1][3]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold has shown significant oscillation this week, lacking a clear trend, making it challenging for mid to long-term analysts to secure profits without risking losses [3]. - The recent trading day saw gold prices rise to around 3350 before falling to a low of 3310, indicating a lack of strong directional movement [4]. - The overall trend for gold remains bullish as long as it does not drop below 3280, with key resistance levels at 3355 and support levels at 3310 and 3295 [4][5]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices have not yet completed their upward movement, with expectations for further increases, particularly targeting around 37 [3][5]. - After a recent profit-taking at 35.2, silver has shown potential for further gains, with a current trading price around 36.7 and a target of 37 for potential short positions [5][6]. Domestic Market Insights - Domestic gold prices have remained stable, with expectations for upward movement, particularly for Shanghai gold, which is projected to reach around 795 [5]. - The domestic silver market has also shown positive movement, with recent trades indicating a bullish trend as long as support at 35.2 holds [5][6]. Oil Market Overview - International crude oil has shown limited movement, maintaining a bullish trend with support at 64, but future price movements will depend on market news and developments [6]. - Domestic fuel oil has experienced adjustments but is still viewed as bullish in the long term, with potential targets of 3000 to 3200 [7].
伦敦金守住关键支撑位 中东局势依然脆弱
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-26 03:03
【黄金技术分析】 摘要周四(6月26日)本交易日伦敦金日内维持震荡走势,今日开盘报3332.09美元/盎司,最高触及3339.76 美元/盎司,最低触及3328.99美元/盎司,截止发稿金价报3335.89美元/盎司,涨幅0.12%。 从技术层面来看,黄金走势正酝酿一场新风波。观察黄金日线K线图,目前价格正处于关键支撑位3300 美元/盎司附近震荡。此前的大幅下跌在支撑位处形成了较长的下影线,显示出多头在此处有一定的抵 抗力量。若后续价格能够在此企稳并向上突破短期均线压制,有望开启一波反弹行情;反之,一旦跌破 3300美元/盎司支撑位,金价可能继续下探,下一关键支撑位或在3250美元/盎司。 在中东地区,尽管以色列与伊朗近期宣布停火,但局势依然脆弱。当地时间6月25日,美国总统特朗普 表示,美方将于下周与伊朗就一项潜在的核协议展开会谈,但他多次强调自己并不认为这类协议"有多 必要"。特朗普还称,自己"非常确信"以色列与伊朗之间的军事冲突已经结束,但冲突可能再次爆发, 也许很快。他不认为伊朗会重新进行核计划,同时表示美国不依赖以色列情报,空袭以来收集的情报显 示基地已被摧毁,且不会放弃对伊朗施压,也不会接管石油 ...