Market Overview - The market is currently focused on two main aspects: the stability of geopolitical situations following US-Russia talks and expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][2] - The outcome of the US-Russia talks remains unclear, which may reduce market demand for gold as a safe haven [1] Gold Market Analysis - Gold has broken below the key support level of 3330, indicating a shift to a bearish trend [2][3] - The current support levels for gold are identified at 3300 and 3280, with 3300 being a trendline support and 3280 being the lower Bollinger Band support [2] - If gold maintains above these support levels, there may still be potential for a bullish reversal [2] Silver Market Analysis - Silver has also transitioned from a strong consolidation phase to a bearish trend, with a recent close below 37.5 [3][4] - The next support level for silver is at 36.5, and the overall long-term trend remains bullish despite the current adjustments [3] Domestic Market Insights - In the domestic market, the Shanghai gold contract closed around 773, indicating limited downside potential in the short term [3] - The domestic silver market has shown a significant decline, with the Shanghai silver contract reaching a low of 9050 [4] Oil Market Analysis - The international oil market has seen a contract change to oilV25, with a current close around 62, and a critical support level at 61.2 [4] - If oil prices remain above 61.2, there is potential for a rebound, while a break below this level could lead to further bearish trends [4] Fuel Market Insights - The domestic fuel market has experienced a slow decline without significant momentum, closing around 2710 [4] - There is a need to observe if the market can establish a bottom and regain levels above 2800 for potential upward movement [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that gold is expected to maintain a low-level oscillation rebound, with a focus on short-term trading strategies until a clear breakout occurs [4][5]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold experienced a wide range of fluctuations, opening lower and then rising, with a minimum of 3323 and a maximum of 3358, before settling around 3326 [3]. - The current trend is identified as a bullish one, but the strength of the upward movement is under pressure due to a stronger dollar [4]. - The key resistance level for gold is set at 3360; if this level is broken, further upward movement is anticipated [4][5]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver showed limited upward momentum, peaking at 38.2 before retreating, with a focus on maintaining a bullish trend above the support level of 37.5 [5][6]. - The target for silver is set at 38.5 and potentially 39 if upward momentum is strong enough [5]. Domestic Gold and Silver Contracts - The domestic gold contract (沪金) is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with targets of 785 and 790 depending on market strength [5]. - The domestic silver contract (沪银) is also projected to remain bullish as long as it stays above the support level of 9200, with potential targets of 9400 and 9550 [6]. Crude Oil Market Analysis - Crude oil rebounded from a support level of 62, with a current price around 63.2, indicating a low-level oscillation [6]. - The focus is on whether the 62 support level holds; if it breaks, further declines may occur, potentially reaching 58 [6]. Fuel Oil Market Analysis - Domestic fuel oil is currently weak but is expected to hold above 2800, with potential for upward movement if a rebound occurs [7].

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently focused on the impact of the upcoming CPI data on gold and silver prices, with expectations of potential volatility based on the data's outcome [5][6][7]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold opened at 3395 and dropped to a low of 3342, completing the anticipated adjustment range after a previous rise from 3268 to 3410 [5][6]. - The key levels to watch are 3370 for resistance and 3320 for support, with potential movements depending on whether the CPI data is favorable or unfavorable [5][6]. - The overall trend remains bullish, with expectations that if the CPI data is positive, gold could rise to 3390, while negative data could push it down to 3320 [5][6]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver has shown a rebound after reaching a low of 37.5, which is seen as a support level, and further movements will depend on the CPI data [7]. - The resistance levels for silver are at 38.5 and 39.5, while a break below 37.5 could lead to a decline towards 36 [7]. Oil Market Analysis - International crude oil showed a slight rebound, reaching a high of 64.4, indicating a low-level consolidation phase [8]. - The support level for oil is at 63.5, and a sustained move above 66 is necessary to confirm a bullish trend towards 70 [8]. - Domestic fuel oil is recommended to maintain a bullish stance, with a target of 3000, while holding positions above 2800 [8].

Industry Overview Upstream - Energy: International crude oil prices have shown a slight upward trend [2] - Agriculture: Egg prices have dropped significantly recently [2] Midstream - Chemical industry: The operating rate of PTA has declined [3] - Energy: Coal consumption in power plants has remained stable recently [3] - Infrastructure: The operating rate of asphalt has been rising continuously recently [3] Downstream - Real estate: Recent sales of commercial housing have declined [3] - Services: The box office revenue of summer movies has been rising continuously [3] Policy Overview Production Industry - Shanghai has issued measures to support enterprises in increasing investment in basic research, with different levels of one - time financial subsidies for enterprises with different annual basic research investment amounts [1] - Hainan has released an action plan to build a modern industrial system, aiming to cultivate the commercial space industry chain and achieve an operating income of 10 billion yuan in the aerospace industry cluster in Wenchang International Aerospace City by 2027 [1] Service Industry - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, using various monetary policy tools to maintain sufficient liquidity and guide reasonable credit growth [1] Industry Credit Spread Tracking (as of 8/5) | Industry | Current | One Month Ago | Last Week | This Week | Quantile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery | 82.26 | 77.04 | 56.21 | 49.35 | 0.30 | | Mining | 30.94 | 47.98 | 35.42 | 31.88 | 0.40 | | Chemical Industry | 65.92 | 62.95 | 47.54 | 45.37 | 43.20 | 0.30 | | Steel | 35.23 | 56.36 | 46.01 | 42.01 | 40.13 | 5.10 | | Non - Ferrous Metals | 37.37 | 58.80 | 48.05 | 43.33 | 41.11 | 4.40 | | Electronics | 49.90 | 78.23 | 53.17 | 42.82 | 44.06 | 0.70 | | Automobile | 54.05 | 51.85 | 37.90 | 34.43 | 32.96 | 1.10 | | Household Appliances | 35.59 | 21.45 | 46.36 | 42.79 | 41.10 | 5.80 | | Food and Beverage | 34.22 | 46.11 | 35.53 | 31.06 | 28.90 | 0.20 | | Textile and Apparel | 43.07 | 54.72 | 51.57 | 43.28 | 40.83 | 0.50 | | Light Industry Manufacturing | 44.25 | 168.19 | 142.28 | 133.76 | 131.32 | 7.20 | | Pharmaceutical and Biological | 49.06 | 73.61 | 21.88 | 47.68 | 45.75 | 0.60 | | Public Utilities | 23.59 | 34.55 | 26.02 | 23.85 | 22.13 | 0.80 | | Transportation | 24.68 | 39.10 | 28.96 | 27.63 | 26.86 | 4.50 | | Real Estate | 198.71 | 127.12 | 95.84 | 89.30 | 86.30 | 0.20 | | Commerce and Trade | 37.22 | 21.51 | 40.42 | 37.06 | 34.73 | 0.90 | | Leisure Services | 69.22 | 124.48 | 117.80 | 105.37 | 105.65 | 85.60 | | Banking | 22.29 | 19.16 | 16.05 | 16.05 | 14.40 | 1.20 | | Non - Banking Financial | 23.00 | 35.56 | 28.84 | 26.89 | 23.84 | 0.70 | | Comprehensive | 67.78 | 51.72 | 40.12 | 36.67 | 35.01 | 1.10 | | Building Materials | 31.30 | 47.42 | 35.15 | 28.51 | 26.59 | 0.50 | | Building Decoration | 34.80 | 56.69 | 50.46 | 46.97 | 45.62 | 8.90 | | Electrical Equipment | 51.00 | 80.45 | 73.91 | 69.86 | 68.68 | 26.70 | | Machinery and Equipment | 25.71 | 47.87 | 43.24 | 40.49 | 38.30 | 11.50 | | Computer | 63.70 | 63.32 | 44.59 | 37.41 | 34.72 | 0.30 | | Media | 238.93 | 45.77 | 35.91 | 34.82 | 33.51 | 1.20 | | Communications | 26.26 | 28.04 | 30.43 | 27.71 | 25.42 | 2.50 | [42] Key Industry Price Index Tracking (as of 8/4) | Industry | Index Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Value | YoY | Past 5 - day Trend | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 2328.6 | - 0.18% | | | | Spot price of eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 8/4 | 6.4 | - 5.59% | | | | Spot price of palm oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 8888.0 | - 1.20% | | | | Spot price of cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 15172.2 | - 2.48% | | | | Average wholesale price of pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 8/4 | 20.3 | - 0.88% | | | Non - Ferrous Metals | Spot price of copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 78418.3 | - 0.92% | | | | Spot price of zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 22148.0 | - 2.12% | | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 20493.3 | - 0.89% | | | | Spot price of nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 121600.0 | - 0.88% | | | Black Metals | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 16737.5 | - 0.67% | | | | Spot price of rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 3307.7 | - 1.32% | | | | Spot price of iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 786.2 | - 0.44% | | | | Spot price of wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 3442.5 | - 1.57% | | | Non - Metals | Spot price of glass | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 8/4 | 15.4 | - 1.72% | | | | Spot price of natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 14433.3 | - 4.57% | | | | China Plastics City Price Index | Daily | - | 8/4 | 810.8 | - 0.24% | | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 8/4 | 67.3 | 3.33% | | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 8/4 | 69.7 | 1.80% | | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 4158.0 | 0.24% | | | | Coal price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 776.0 | 1.04% | | | Chemical Industry | Spot price of PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 4808.8 | - 1.11% | | | | Spot price of polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 7453.3 | 0.00% | | | | Spot price of urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 1812.5 | - 0.55% | | | | Spot price of soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 1315.0 | 0.00% | | | Real Estate | National cement price index | Daily | - | 8/4 | 129.0 | - 0.82% | | | | Building materials composite index | Daily | Points | 8/4 | 115.9 | - 1.96% | | | | National concrete price index | Daily | Points | 8/4 | 93.6 | - 0.73% | | [43]

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of the US dollar is suppressing gold prices, with the market awaiting the impact of non-farm payroll data [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Data and Trends - Recent data including ADP, unemployment claims, and PCE have been favorable for the dollar and unfavorable for gold, contributing to the dollar's significant rise this year, nearing the 100 mark [3][4] - Gold and silver have been under pressure, failing to establish a strong upward trend despite attempts at rebounds [3][4] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is expected to influence the relationship between the dollar and gold, with a focus on whether a negative correlation will emerge [3][5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold is currently in a weak consolidation phase, with key resistance levels at 3315 and 3345, and support levels at 3280 and 3260 [4][5] - The market anticipates a range-bound movement for gold before the non-farm data release, with a trading range set between 3280 and 3315 [5] - The previous non-farm payroll figure was 147,000, with a forecast of 110,000, suggesting that if actual data aligns closely with predictions, the impact on gold may be limited [5] Group 3: Domestic Market Insights - Domestic gold prices have shown a continuation of weak trends, with recent fluctuations failing to establish a clear upward trajectory [5] - The Shanghai gold contract is currently trading around 772, with a medium-term bullish outlook targeting 790 [5] - The silver market is also under pressure, with a critical support level at 36, and potential for a rebound if this level holds [6] Group 4: Oil Market Overview - International crude oil has successfully risen to 70, with previous long positions yielding significant profits [6] - The overall bullish trend in oil remains intact, with potential upward targets set at 72 or higher [6] - Domestic fuel oil has shown an upward trend, with a focus on maintaining positions above 3000 [7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates, aligning with expectations, while Powell emphasized that inflation is close to 2% but it is too early to determine if a rate cut will occur in September [1] - The current policy is slightly restrictive but has not suppressed the economy, leading to a strengthening of the US dollar and a decline in gold and silver prices, with gold hitting a low of 3268 and silver at 36.7 [1] - Market sentiment has been influenced by data, with gold and silver showing a weak trend, and key resistance levels for gold at 3300 and 3330, while silver faces resistance at 37.5 [1][2] Group 2 - The dollar has reached a critical level above 100, while gold has been affected by market data, showing an overall weak trend [2] - Gold has dropped from 3438 to 3268, a decline of 170 points, and the market is currently at a critical juncture for potential bullish reversal [2][3] - The upcoming unemployment claims and non-farm payroll data are crucial for market direction, with a focus on whether gold can maintain above 3300 and 3330 for potential upward movement [3] Group 3 - International silver has shown significant volatility, breaking below 37.5, and its future direction remains uncertain, dependent on upcoming data [4] - Domestic silver has also seen a decline, with the Shanghai silver contract falling below 9100, indicating potential for further downward movement unless it stabilizes above 9150 [4] - Crude oil has successfully risen to 770, with previous long positions yielding profits, and the overall bullish trend remains intact, with potential targets above 72 [4][5] Group 4 - Domestic fuel oil has seen a rise to around 3000, with previous long positions being adjusted or exited for profit, while the overall trend remains bullish [5] - The focus remains on monitoring support levels and potential upward targets for both domestic and international commodities [5]

Group 1 - The overall trend for gold remains bullish despite recent fluctuations, with key resistance levels at 3355 and potential targets at 3380, 3400, and 3430 [2][3] - The market is expected to react to upcoming non-farm data, with a focus on the continuation of bullish or bearish trends following the data release [3] - Technical analysis indicates that gold has not shown significant downward momentum, with support around 3285 and resistance at 3400, suggesting a range-bound movement before data impacts [3][4] Group 2 - Domestic gold trading strategies have been adjusted, with previous positions taken at high points and new entries suggested around 776 for Shanghai gold and 770 for Rongtong gold, maintaining a bullish outlook [4] - International silver is expected to maintain its bullish trend as long as it does not break below 37.5, with trading opportunities around the 38 level [4] - Shanghai silver is also projected to follow a bullish trend, with key levels to watch at 9400 and 9550, indicating a preference for long positions [5] Group 3 - International crude oil has shown limited volatility, with support at 65 and potential upward movement if this level holds, targeting 68 as a breakout point [5] - Domestic fuel oil is in a similar state of low volatility, with a focus on maintaining long positions around 2850, anticipating a rise to 3000 and eventually 3200 [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold is expected to rise to 3400, following a bullish trend after a recent adjustment to 3350 [2][4] - The analysis suggests that after the recent dip to 3350, gold has shown signs of recovery, reaching a high of 3378, with further upward potential anticipated [4][5] - The strategy for trading gold involves holding long positions established at 3350, with targets set at 3382, 3395, and potentially 3410 if momentum allows [4][5] Group 2 - Domestic gold (Shanghai Gold) is projected to have upward movement, with short-term targets of 785 for Shanghai Gold and 780 for Rontong Gold, following a recent low of 776 [5] - International silver is experiencing high-level fluctuations, with a recent test at 39.5 and a support level at 38.5, indicating a potential for upward movement if the support holds [5][6] - The analysis of domestic silver (Shanghai Silver) suggests a bullish trend with a focus on maintaining positions within a high-level fluctuation range, monitoring key levels at 9300 and 9550 [6] Group 3 - International crude oil is expected to maintain a bullish outlook with a support level at 65, aiming for a target of 68 if the upward momentum continues [6] - Domestic fuel oil is also on an upward trajectory, with expectations of reaching 3000 before potentially hitting 3200, encouraging traders to hold long positions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold and silver prices, highlighting a predicted pattern of initial increases followed by declines, which has been validated by market movements [3][5]. Gold Market Analysis - The gold price was forecasted to rise from 3310 to a peak of 3430, followed by a drop starting from 3440 down to a low of 3380, resulting in a total decline of 60 USD [3][5]. - The expectation for the upcoming days is a continuation of the downward adjustment, with a target around 3350, as technical indicators suggest potential further declines [5][6]. - The analysis indicates that the gold market is currently in a weak state, with a focus on the support levels around 3375 and 3350 [6]. Silver Market Analysis - The silver market was anticipated to face resistance around 39.5, with a subsequent adjustment observed as prices peaked at this level before declining [7]. - The current support levels for silver are identified at 38.5 and 37.5, with a potential for further declines if the 38.5 level is breached [7]. - The domestic silver market (沪银) has shown a recent peak at 9540, with a recommendation to short at 9520, leading to a current price around 9400 [7]. Oil Market Analysis - The article notes a support level for international crude oil at 65, with expectations for upward movement towards 68, contingent on maintaining above this support [8]. - Domestic fuel oil has been fluctuating within a range of 2830 to 2920, with a suggestion for traders to either hold onto profitable positions or take short-term profits [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices has reached critical resistance levels, with gold hitting 3400 and silver approaching 39, indicating a strong bullish trend but caution is advised for potential adjustments ahead [2][4]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold has reached a key point at 3400, with a previous bullish signal starting from 3310, resulting in an increase of nearly 90 USD [4]. - The market may experience a pullback, with support levels identified at 3390 and 3375, suggesting a potential adjustment range of at least 25 USD [4]. - The analysis indicates that if the price breaks below 3375, it could lead to further declines towards 3350 [4]. Silver Market Analysis - Domestic silver prices have also reached significant highs, with the Shanghai gold contract nearing 790 and the Rongtong gold contract at approximately 780, aligning with previous bullish forecasts [5]. - International silver is at a critical point near 39, and if this level is not maintained, it may lead to a significant technical adjustment, with key support at 37.5 [5][6]. Platinum and Oil Market Insights - Platinum has shown a consistent bullish trend since 273, currently around 332, with expectations of reaching 350 and potentially 500 [5]. - The international oil market is currently trading around 65.5, with support at 65 and resistance at 68, indicating a cautious approach to trading until these levels are confirmed [6]. Domestic Fuel Market - The domestic fuel market has been fluctuating between 2830 and 2920, with the current trend showing difficulty in sustaining upward momentum, suggesting a cautious trading strategy [6].