宏观日报 | 2026-02-27 节后中游持续回暖 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）津巴布韦矿业部日前宣布暂停所有原矿及锂精矿出口（含在途货物）。媒体记者从中矿资源与雅化 集团获悉，津巴布韦锂矿出口禁令系阶段性措施，预计最快1至4周内有望恢复，目前公司原料库存充足，对生产 经营影响有限。雅化集团证券部人士表示，有采矿权和选矿厂的企业可以在提交补充材料后再申请出口，目前公 司已经准备提交材料；中矿资源表示，后续会有新的审批流程出台，预估这个禁令可能在一个月以内，不会持续 很久，具体取决于审批落地情况。 服务行业：1）中国人民银行发布关于银行业金融机构人民币跨境同业融资业务有关事宜的通知。通知提出，支持 境内银行顺应市场需求，按照依法合规、风险可控的原则开展人民币跨境同业融资业务。境内中资银行、外商独 资银行、中外合资银行开展相关业务应由银行总行统一管理，并按照实质重于形式的原则，将全部人民币跨境同 业融资业务纳入管理范围，建立健全风险管理和内部控制机制。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 上游：1）能源：液化天然气价格回落，国际原油价格回升。2）农业：鸡蛋价格 ...

新一轮成品油调价窗口周期内，国际原油上涨，地缘紧张局势导致风险溢价主导国际原油走势，基本面 对原油影响有限，国际原油录得近六个月高位。本轮原油变化率持续正值范围内运行，当前成品油零售 调价窗口处于上调预期。监测模型显示，截至2月23日收盘，国内第10个工作日参考原油的变化率为 3.98%，预计汽、柴油零售限价每吨分别上调175和170元，折合升价92#汽油、95#汽油、0#柴油分别上 调0.14、0.15、0.14元，调价窗口为2026年2月24日24时。若本轮成品油零售限价上调确认后，私家车单 次加满一箱50L的油后将多花7元。（ 卓创资讯） ...

2月23日，国际原油期货市场延续窄幅波动态势，两大基准原油合约均以小幅下跌报收。据新华社消 息，纽约商品交易所4月交货的轻质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌17美分，收于每桶66.31美元，跌幅为 0.26%；同期伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌27美分，收于每桶71.49美元，跌幅为0.38%。 整体而言，地缘政治风险溢价与全球贸易政策不确定性之间的博弈，构成了当前国际原油市场的核心背 景。在多空因素相互牵制下，油价短期内呈现出窄幅震荡的运行特征。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 需求端方面，印度1月原油进口量同比下降0.6%，至2110万吨。作为全球第三大原油进口国，印度进口 数据的边际变化一定程度上反映了亚洲主要消费国的采购节奏。 信达证券在2月10日发布的原油周报中指出："特朗普计划同伊朗对话，重启核谈判，地缘风险降温，叠 加哈萨克斯坦油田及美国原油产量逐渐恢复，供应压力回升，国际油价下跌。周后期，美国击落一架伊 朗无人机，伊朗武装快艇逼近悬挂美国国旗的油轮，地缘风险溢价迅速回归，叠加美印达成贸易协议， 有望提振需求，国际油价反弹。"美伊 ...

国际原油也陷入震荡走势，目前看不出多空双方的延续性，经过两个交易的涨跌，技术面的区间看好59.5/66，当然，由于原油是弱势走势，来回走的比较 反复，所以近期交易建议做短线积累，不看趋势力度，触及低位支撑可以继续看上方空间。 上个交易日黄金出现了下跌，最低在4840附近，虽然回落的力度比较大，但是下方有两个支撑点，一个4400，一个4650都没有试探，何来趋势改变呢，只能 说是一个极弱走势，向下试探一下前期的支撑点而已。早上讲过，周二午夜黄金回落刀4840后以此为防守可以看反弹空间，如果亚欧盘站稳4950，那么，极 弱也可以转强，上方再看5100，如果4950不破，也就是一个小范围的震荡，不会持续大涨大跌，因此，建议今天参考周二的低点继续多。按照目前价格4932 来看，就看欧美盘是否站稳4950了，站稳后，上方继续看5050，5100，山海比较看好强弱转换，上涨走高至5050，5100。因此有低多布局的朋友可以坚持拿 主北上的交易，耐心等待时间换空间。 白银走低至72，收盘在76，很明显也是扫盘的行情，相对之前的走势来讲是弱势，但是维持前期的观点不变，只要在75之下就是布局北上的机会，所以，本 周的二次回落还 ...

前言：富格林立足香港连接国际，充分发挥金融制度健全优势，优质可信服务大中华市场近16年，积累 深厚经验为广大投资者曝光抑止套路欺诈困扰。黄金价格历经前两日的剧烈抛售，黄金价格历经前两日 的剧烈抛售，周三(2月10日)，国际金价在5000美元/盎司附近窄幅震荡。此前连续两日反弹后，美国零 售销售数据偏弱与本周密集公布的就业、通胀数据，让投资者在"风险偏好回升"与"降息预期仍在"的拉 扯中重新定价。投资者可利用富格林协助曝光套路欺诈，完善分析师团队在线提供可信行情入市建议， 精准布局把握盈利先机。 富格林立足香港连接国际，充分发挥金融制度健全优势，优质可信服务大中华市场近16年，积累深厚经 验为广大投资者曝光抑止套路欺诈困扰。现货黄金周二（2月10日）收跌，在关键的美国就业与通胀数 据公布前夕，地缘政治局势持续升温，美元走软与降息预期交织，共同绘制了一幅复杂而充满机遇的黄 金投资图谱。投资者可利用富格林协助曝光套路欺诈，完善分析师团队在线提供可信行情入市建议，精 准布局把握盈利先机。 富格林据讯，周二现货黄金止步两连涨，美国零售销售数据公布后一度短线拉升，但随后迅速回吐涨 幅，最终收跌0.74%，报5022.87 ...

Global Economic Landscape - The global economic growth rate is projected to be around 3.0% in 2026, with the US stabilizing at approximately 2%, while the EU and Japan are expected to grow at 1.4% and 0.5% respectively [2][36] - Emerging economies like China, India, and the UAE are maintaining mid-to-high-speed growth, becoming significant engines of global economic development [2][43] Fiscal Policies - Expansionary fiscal policies are becoming mainstream, with developed and emerging economies maintaining high fiscal deficit rates of around 5.0% and 6.0% respectively, leading to rising government debt levels [2][36] - The sustainability of government debt is increasingly being challenged, particularly in the US and Japan [2][36] Supply Chain Restructuring - The trend of localization and regionalization is reshaping global supply chains, with the US controlling high-end segments, China becoming an indispensable "central node," and ASEAN and Latin America attracting investments due to their geographical advantages [2][36] Commodity Prices - Commodity price trends are diverging, with gold prices expected to rise above $6,000 per ounce driven by geopolitical risks and Fed rate cut expectations, while international crude oil prices may further decline to around $57 per barrel [2][36] Technological and ESG Developments - The AI sector continues to innovate, with multi-agent systems and humanoid robots gaining attention, although investment bubble risks exist [2][36] - ESG development is progressing with significant disparities, as Europe leads, China advances steadily, and the US lags behind, moving towards sustainable development [2][36] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical conflicts are identified as the largest risk in 2026, with the US executing Monroe Doctrine in the Western Hemisphere and increasing tensions in regions like Latin America and the Arctic [7][15] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely to continue as a war of attrition, while the Middle East faces heightened risks due to the spillover effects of the Israel-Palestine conflict [15][20] Central Bank Policies - There are significant differences in global central bank monetary policies, with the Fed expected to adopt a more accommodative stance, potentially cutting rates 2-3 times in 2026 [24][27] - The European Central Bank is likely to maintain a "middle strategy," keeping rates around 2% to balance inflation and growth [28][30] - The Bank of Japan is expected to continue raising rates to around 1%, facing challenges from policy contradictions and currency pressures [34][36]

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 美国国债出现小幅上涨，走势联动股市与原油市场变化。近期美股出现调整，部分资金从权益市场转向 低波动的国债市场寻求避险，推动国债价格上行。同时，国际油价走高推升通胀预期，通胀上行预期虽 会侵蚀国债固定收益的实际价值，但市场担忧油价高企将拖累经济增长，令具备稳定收益属性的国债仍 获得部分资金青睐。 PIMCO指出，当前债券定价相比股票具备绝对吸引力，投资者需通过全球多元布局实现回报最大化并 降低风险。从全球市场环境来看，此前美联储相关人事提名引发市场对货币政策路径的重新定价，带动 美元资产出现波动。叠加中东等地缘局势持续扰动原油供应预期，市场对地缘冲突升级的担忧加剧，推 升市场对避险资产的配置需求，为国债价格提供支撑，同时也令国际油价保持高位运行。 全球主要央行货币政策调整节奏分化，美国国债作为全球核心避险资产，配置需求得到进一步巩固。权 益市场波动期间，资金转向具备稳定收益属性的国债市场，成为推动本次国债小幅上涨的重要支撑因 素。 ...

Group 1: International Precious Metals Market - International gold and silver prices experienced significant declines, with gold futures dropping below $4,500 per ounce and silver futures falling to $72.35 per ounce on February 2 [1] - The price of silver has seen a cumulative decline of 40% from its historical high on January 29, while gold prices have decreased by approximately 20% [1] Group 2: International Oil Market - International oil prices also saw a substantial drop, with a decline exceeding 3% on February 2 [9]

Group 1 - Spot silver continues to decline, with a daily drop of 10%, currently at $76.89 per ounce. Spot gold has fallen below $4,700, down 3.33% for the day [1] - U.S. stock futures are lower in early Asian trading, with the Nasdaq 100 futures down over 1% and S&P 500 futures down 0.6% [1] - International crude oil prices opened lower, with WTI and Brent both down over 2%, currently at $63 per barrel and $67 per barrel respectively. Recent price increases were driven by market concerns over potential U.S. military action against Iran [1] Group 2 - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi expressed confidence in reaching an agreement with the U.S. on nuclear issues, despite losing trust in the U.S. as a negotiating partner. He noted that communication through friendly regional countries is facilitating contact [2] - Araghchi emphasized the importance of focusing on the substance of negotiations rather than the format, reiterating Iran's desire for the U.S. to lift long-standing sanctions and respect Iran's right to continue uranium enrichment under peaceful nuclear energy frameworks [2] - He stated that reaching a consensus could create significant economic cooperation opportunities between Iran and the U.S., benefiting regional development [2] Group 3 - Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi held intensive talks with U.S. officials in Washington, focusing on the possibility of military strikes against Iran and tactical coordination between the U.S. and Israel [3] - There has been no official report from the Israeli Defense Forces regarding these discussions. However, it is indicated that Israel seeks advance warning from the U.S. before any potential strikes on Iran to prepare for defense [4] - The U.S. has been increasing pressure on Iran, deploying multiple naval vessels, including aircraft carriers, in the region, threatening military intervention [5]

Market Overview - Spot silver continues to decline, with a daily drop of 10%, currently at $76.89 per ounce [1] - Spot gold has fallen below $4,700, down 3.33% for the day [1] - U.S. stock futures are lower, with Nasdaq 100 futures down over 1% and S&P 500 futures down 0.6% [1] - International crude oil prices opened lower, with WTI and Brent both down over 2%, at $63 per barrel and $67 per barrel respectively [1] - Recent increases in oil prices were driven by market concerns over potential U.S. military action against Iran [1] Geopolitical Developments - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi expressed confidence in reaching an agreement with the U.S. on nuclear issues, despite losing trust in the U.S. as a negotiating partner [2] - Araghchi emphasized the importance of substantive negotiations over the format and reiterated Iran's desire for the U.S. to lift long-standing sanctions [2] - Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi held intensive talks with U.S. officials in Washington, focusing on the possibility of military action against Iran and tactical coordination between the U.S. and Israel [3] - The Israeli military seeks advance warning from the U.S. before any potential strikes on Iran to prepare for defense [4] Historical Context - The U.S. has been increasing pressure on Iran, deploying multiple naval vessels, including aircraft carriers, in the region [5] - The U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 and reimposed sanctions, leading to a series of indirect negotiations that have faced interruptions due to military conflicts [5]