⑧ 次日05:30 美国至1月30日当周API原油库存 注：以上仅为个人观点策略，仅供查阅交流，没有给予客户任何投资建议，与客户的投资无关，更不作为下单的依据。 月线（长线多） 支撑：3495-3500 周线（中线多） 支撑：4400-4410 日线（波段空） 阻力：4910 四小时（短期） 关键分水岭4855区域，短线关注4400-4910区间破位后跟随 没有出现反转信号之前先看承压 月线（长线偏多） 阻力：61.50 黄金 周线（中线偏多） 阻力：59.30 日线（波段多） 阻力：61.40 四小时（短期） 短线分水岭62.55附近，日内短线关注61.40-62.55区间破位后跟对 没有下破日线及月线支撑前依旧处于多头表现 【今日重点关注的财经数据与事件】2026年2月3日周二 ① 待定 国内成品油开启新一轮调价窗口 ② 11:30 澳洲联储公布利率决议 ③ 12:30 澳洲联储布洛克召开发布会 ④ 15:45 法国1月CPI月率初值 ⑤ 21:00 美联储巴尔金发表讲话 ⑥ 22:40 美联储理事鲍曼发表讲话 ⑦ 23:00 美国12月JOLTs职位空缺 原油 ...

Group 1 - The first round of domestic oil price adjustment in 2026 is expected to be suspended, with the adjustment window opening on January 6 at 24:00. In 2025, domestic oil prices experienced 25 rounds of adjustments, ending with three consecutive declines, resulting in a decrease of 915 yuan per ton for gasoline and 880 yuan per ton for diesel compared to the end of 2024. The price adjustment situation for 2026 may become "zero increase, zero decrease, one suspension" [1] Group 2 - A press conference will be held by the State Council Information Office on January 6 at 3 PM to introduce the promotion of green consumption, featuring officials from the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the State Administration for Market Regulation [2] Group 3 - The 2026 Harbin International Ice and Snow Economic Expo will take place from January 6 to 8 at the Harbin International Convention and Exhibition Center, featuring 28 planned activities across various fields such as ice and snow equipment, technology, finance, and cultural tourism, aimed at showcasing the achievements of Harbin's ice and snow economy and promoting international cooperation [3] Group 4 - On January 6, a total of 6 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked, with a total of 797 million shares being released, amounting to a market value of 102.903 billion yuan based on the latest closing prices. The companies with the largest unlock volumes include Baili Tianheng (298 million shares), Xinwufeng (233 million shares), and Aiyu Co., Ltd. (227 million shares) [4] Group 5 - On January 6, 70 companies disclosed progress on stock repurchases, with 76 related announcements. Two companies announced stock repurchase plans for the first time, one plan was approved by a shareholders' meeting, 59 companies reported on the implementation of repurchase plans, and 8 companies completed their repurchase plans. The highest repurchase amounts were announced by Aidi Precision (up to 200 million yuan) and Kelun Pharmaceutical (up to 100 million yuan) [5] Group 6 - Seven A-shares will undergo equity registration on January 6, with all seven companies planning to distribute dividends. The companies with the largest dividend payouts include Hai'an Group (20.00 yuan per 10 shares), Tongfei Co., Ltd. (2.00 yuan per 10 shares), and Chongqing Bank (1.68 yuan per 10 shares) [6] Group 7 - Nine A-shares disclosed progress on private placements on January 6, with two companies announcing new private placement plans, three plans approved by shareholders' meetings, three plans approved by the CSRC, and one plan halted. The highest fundraising amounts from the latest disclosed plans were from Guangyun Da (up to 1.211 billion yuan) and Haopeng Technology (up to 800 million yuan) [7]

Group 1 - The long-term support level for the monthly chart is at 3230, indicating a bullish outlook [2] - The weekly chart shows a support level at 3900, also suggesting a bullish trend [2] - The daily chart indicates a bearish trend with a support level at 4075 [2] - The four-hour chart identifies a critical resistance zone between 4065-4075, where prices are expected to face pressure until a reversal occurs [2] Group 2 - The long-term resistance level for the monthly chart is at 63.40, indicating a bearish outlook for crude oil [4] - The weekly chart shows a resistance level at 60.30, reinforcing the bearish sentiment [4] - The daily chart indicates a resistance level at 59.30, further supporting the bearish trend [4] - The four-hour chart highlights a short-term resistance zone between 58.50-60, where prices are expected to face pressure until a reversal occurs [4] Group 3 - Domestic refined oil is set to enter a new round of price adjustment [6] - Key economic data to watch includes the German IFO Business Climate Index at 17:00 and the U.S. Dallas Fed Business Activity Index at 23:30 on November 24, 2025 [6]

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - Gold futures in New York have surpassed $4,110 per ounce, with a daily decline of 0.14% [1] Group 2: Energy and Shipping Futures - WTI crude oil has exceeded $58 per barrel, experiencing a daily drop of 0.16% [2] - Brent crude oil has surpassed $62 per barrel, with a daily decrease of 0.08% [3] Group 3: Macroeconomic and Market Impact - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 69.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 30.6%. The cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut by January next year is 56.9%, with a 20.8% chance of no change, and a 22.3% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [4] - A new round of domestic refined oil price adjustments will commence on Monday, November 24 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil in China is expected to increase after the adjustment scheduled for November 10 at 24:00, with predictions indicating an increase exceeding 50 yuan per ton based on recent international crude oil price fluctuations [1] Group 1: Price Adjustment Details - The upcoming adjustment will mark the twenty-second round of price changes since 2025, which has seen a pattern of "six increases, nine decreases, and six stasis" [1] - Following the adjustment, the prices of gasoline and diesel will be down by 745 yuan and 715 yuan per ton, respectively, compared to the end of last year [1]

Group 1 - The long-term support level for the market is at 3230, while the medium-term support is at 3795, indicating a bullish outlook for longer time frames [1] - The short-term critical threshold is identified at 3996, suggesting that prices above this level may lead to upward movement [1] - In the oil market, the long-term resistance is set at 63.40, with a medium-term support at 60.55, indicating caution against potential upward trends [1] Group 2 - The short-term critical range for oil is between 59.80 and 60.55, with a bullish bias if prices remain above 59.80 [2] - Key economic events to monitor include the domestic fuel price adjustment window opening on November 10, 2025, and the release of the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index [2]

Group 1 - The company, Guangju Energy, confirmed on October 20 that its main business involves domestic refined oil wholesale and retail, and it does not engage in export activities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The international crude oil prices have been fluctuating downwards, leading to a significant probability of a reduction in domestic refined oil retail prices in China, with an expected decrease of 80 yuan per ton by October 13, 2025 [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - During the current pricing cycle, which spans from September 23 to October 13, international crude oil prices have shown a downward trend [1] - The domestic reference crude oil change rate briefly rose before entering a downward channel, with a calculated adjustment of -1.87% as of October 10 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - The pricing cycle has been extended due to the overlap with the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, affecting market dynamics [1] - Initial increases in oil prices were driven by geopolitical tensions and underwhelming production increases from OPEC+, but these factors have since reversed, contributing to the recent price declines [1] Group 3: Consumer Impact - If the price adjustment occurs as expected, it will mark the eighth reduction in domestic refined oil retail prices this year, potentially lowering consumer fuel costs further [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international crude oil prices have been primarily fluctuating downwards during the current pricing cycle, leading to a temporary rise in domestic crude oil price change rates before entering a downward trend again [1] Group 1: Pricing Cycle Analysis - The current pricing cycle spans from September 23, 2025, to October 13, 2025, and is notably extended due to the overlap with the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [1] - Geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+ production increase plans falling short of expectations have contributed to the recent rise in crude oil prices [1] Group 2: Consumer Impact - If the upcoming price adjustment results in a decrease, it will mark the eighth reduction in domestic refined oil retail prices this year, potentially lowering consumer fuel costs further [1]

Group 1: US Dollar Index - The US Dollar Index showed a downward trend on Monday, with a high of 97.798 and a low of 97.282, closing at 97.287 [1] - Key resistance for the weekly level is at 97.80, and if it holds, a mid-term bullish trend may continue [1] - Daily support is at 97.50, and the focus is on whether it can hold for further upward movement [1] Group 2: Gold Market - Gold prices increased on Monday, reaching a high of 3748.67 and a low of 3683.59, closing at 3746.7 [3] - The early session saw a strong breakout above the previous day's high, indicating a bullish trend [3] - Attention is needed on the early low of 3738; a break below this level may require adjustments [6] Group 3: Euro and Other Currencies - The Euro showed an overall upward trend on Monday, with a low of 1.1725 and a high of 1.1802, closing at 1.1801 [6] - Monthly support is at 1.1060, and the price is expected to remain bullish above this level [6] - Daily support is at 1.1755, which is crucial for the ongoing trend [6] Group 4: Economic Data and Events - Key economic data to be released includes manufacturing PMI figures from France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK, as well as the US current account for Q2 [10] - Notable speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Powell, are scheduled, which may impact market sentiment [10]