月线（长线多） 支撑：3230 周线（中线多） 支撑：3900 日线（波段空） 支撑：4075 黄金 注：以上仅为个人观点策略，仅供查阅交流，没有给予客户任何投资建议，与客户的投资无关，更不作为下单的依据。 ① 待定 国内成品油开启新一轮调价窗口 ② 17:00 德国11月IFO商业景气指数 ③ 23:30 美国11月达拉斯联储商业活动指数 关键分水岭4065-4075区域，价格没有出现反转之前依此位置看承压 原油 月线（长线空） 阻力：63.40 周线（中线空） 阻力：60.30 日线（波段空） 阻力：59.30 四小时（短期） 短线分水岭58.50-60区间，价格没有出现反转之前依此位置看承压 【今日重点关注的财经数据与事件】2025年11月24日周一 四小时（短期） ...

WTI原油突破58美元/桶，日内跌0.16%[2]；布伦特原油突破62美元/桶，日内跌0.08%[3]。 三、宏观与市场影响 据CME"美联储观察"，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为69.4%，维持利率不变的概率为30.6%；到明 年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为56.9%，维持利率不变的概率为20.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 22.3%[4]。 此外，周一（11月24日）国内成品油将开启新一轮调价窗口[5]。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成 个人投资建议。受限于第三方数据库质量等问题，我们无法对数据的真实性及完整性进行分辨或核验， 因此本文内容可能出现不准确、不完整、误导性的内容或信息，具体以公司公告为准。如有疑问，请联 系biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 来源：喜娜AI 一、贵金属期货 纽约期金突破4110美元/盎司，日内跌0.14%[1]。 二、能源与航运期货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil in China is expected to increase after the adjustment scheduled for November 10 at 24:00, with predictions indicating an increase exceeding 50 yuan per ton based on recent international crude oil price fluctuations [1] Group 1: Price Adjustment Details - The upcoming adjustment will mark the twenty-second round of price changes since 2025, which has seen a pattern of "six increases, nine decreases, and six stasis" [1] - Following the adjustment, the prices of gasoline and diesel will be down by 745 yuan and 715 yuan per ton, respectively, compared to the end of last year [1]

Group 1 - The long-term support level for the market is at 3230, while the medium-term support is at 3795, indicating a bullish outlook for longer time frames [1] - The short-term critical threshold is identified at 3996, suggesting that prices above this level may lead to upward movement [1] - In the oil market, the long-term resistance is set at 63.40, with a medium-term support at 60.55, indicating caution against potential upward trends [1] Group 2 - The short-term critical range for oil is between 59.80 and 60.55, with a bullish bias if prices remain above 59.80 [2] - Key economic events to monitor include the domestic fuel price adjustment window opening on November 10, 2025, and the release of the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index [2]

Group 1 - The company, Guangju Energy, confirmed on October 20 that its main business involves domestic refined oil wholesale and retail, and it does not engage in export activities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The international crude oil prices have been fluctuating downwards, leading to a significant probability of a reduction in domestic refined oil retail prices in China, with an expected decrease of 80 yuan per ton by October 13, 2025 [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - During the current pricing cycle, which spans from September 23 to October 13, international crude oil prices have shown a downward trend [1] - The domestic reference crude oil change rate briefly rose before entering a downward channel, with a calculated adjustment of -1.87% as of October 10 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - The pricing cycle has been extended due to the overlap with the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, affecting market dynamics [1] - Initial increases in oil prices were driven by geopolitical tensions and underwhelming production increases from OPEC+, but these factors have since reversed, contributing to the recent price declines [1] Group 3: Consumer Impact - If the price adjustment occurs as expected, it will mark the eighth reduction in domestic refined oil retail prices this year, potentially lowering consumer fuel costs further [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international crude oil prices have been primarily fluctuating downwards during the current pricing cycle, leading to a temporary rise in domestic crude oil price change rates before entering a downward trend again [1] Group 1: Pricing Cycle Analysis - The current pricing cycle spans from September 23, 2025, to October 13, 2025, and is notably extended due to the overlap with the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [1] - Geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+ production increase plans falling short of expectations have contributed to the recent rise in crude oil prices [1] Group 2: Consumer Impact - If the upcoming price adjustment results in a decrease, it will mark the eighth reduction in domestic refined oil retail prices this year, potentially lowering consumer fuel costs further [1]

Group 1: US Dollar Index - The US Dollar Index showed a downward trend on Monday, with a high of 97.798 and a low of 97.282, closing at 97.287 [1] - Key resistance for the weekly level is at 97.80, and if it holds, a mid-term bullish trend may continue [1] - Daily support is at 97.50, and the focus is on whether it can hold for further upward movement [1] Group 2: Gold Market - Gold prices increased on Monday, reaching a high of 3748.67 and a low of 3683.59, closing at 3746.7 [3] - The early session saw a strong breakout above the previous day's high, indicating a bullish trend [3] - Attention is needed on the early low of 3738; a break below this level may require adjustments [6] Group 3: Euro and Other Currencies - The Euro showed an overall upward trend on Monday, with a low of 1.1725 and a high of 1.1802, closing at 1.1801 [6] - Monthly support is at 1.1060, and the price is expected to remain bullish above this level [6] - Daily support is at 1.1755, which is crucial for the ongoing trend [6] Group 4: Economic Data and Events - Key economic data to be released includes manufacturing PMI figures from France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK, as well as the US current account for Q2 [10] - Notable speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Powell, are scheduled, which may impact market sentiment [10]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong oil stocks collectively rose, with China Petroleum gaining 2%, and China Petroleum Chemical, CNOOC, and China Oilfield Services all increasing by over 1% [1] - Donald Trump announced intentions to impose sanctions on buyers of Russian oil if Moscow does not agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine within 10 days, leading to a rise in oil prices to a one-month high [1] - Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, closed at $72.51 per barrel, up 3.5% on the day and nearly 6% over the past two days [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the U.S. will shorten the deadline for new sanctions on Russia, increasing potential supply risks, while the traditional fuel consumption season in the U.S. is ongoing [1] - The easing of tariff concerns following an agreement between the U.S. and the EU is expected to contribute to a higher likelihood of domestic refined oil price adjustments in the next round [1]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic refined oil prices are expected to see their sixth reduction of the year, with the new pricing window opening at 24:00 today [1] Group 1 - The new round of price adjustment for domestic refined oil will commence today at 24:00 [1] - Institutions generally predict a decrease in domestic refined oil prices [1]