Report Information - Report Date: June 4, 2025 [1] - Report Title: LPG: Geopolitical Disturbance, Strong Cost [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - No clear core view is presented in the report. Summary by Category LPG Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices and Trading Volume**: PG2507 closed at 4,072 yesterday with a daily increase of 2.00% and a night - session close of 4,082 with a 0.25% increase. PG2508 closed at 3,979 yesterday with a 1.82% increase and a night - session close of 3,984 with a 0.13% increase. The trading volume of PG2507 was 60,587, a decrease of 19,076 from the previous day, and the open interest was 66,910, a decrease of 4,982. The trading volume of PG2508 was 11,988, a decrease of 3,594, and the open interest was 37,319, an increase of 1,031 [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 07 contract was 578 yesterday, down from 708 the previous day. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 07 contract was 628 yesterday, down from 758 the previous day [3]. - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 63.3%, up from 61.2% last week. The MTBE operating rate was 54.2%, down from 55.4% last week. The alkylation operating rate was 48.3%, up from 47.0% last week [3]. Market Information - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On June 2, 2025, the expected price of propane in the July Saudi CP was 577 USD/ton, up 5 USD/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 547 USD/ton, up 5 USD/ton. The expected price of propane in the August Saudi CP was 557 USD/ton, up 4 USD/ton; the expected price of butane was 527 USD/ton, up 4 USD/ton [8]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies, including Puyang Yuandong Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., have PDH device maintenance plans with start times ranging from May 12, 2023, to May 2, 2025, and end times mostly undetermined [8]. - **Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many refineries such as Zhenghe Petrochemical, Panjin Haoye, etc., have device maintenance plans with different start and end times, resulting in varying production losses [10]. Trend Intensity - The LPG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [7].