| 【宏观驱动】 | 黄金 | 美联储降息预期+地缘扰动引发避险需求+央行增持 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【战略安全】 | 稀土、钨、锑 | 战略金属受益于全球博弈 | | 【政策护航】 | 锂、钴、镖 | "反内卷"逻辑影响,板块迎来估值修复 | | 【供需格局】 | 铜、铝等工业金属 | 新兴产业需求释放+供给增量有限,供需紧平衡 | 【未来产业"金属心脏"，现代工业"黄金血液"】 今日（9月25日）有色金属板块领涨两市，揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）跳空大 涨，场内涨幅盘中上探2.7%，现涨1.8%。拉长时间来看，该ETF自本轮低点（4月8日）以来，累计上 涨55.21%，大幅跑赢沪指（24.45%）、沪深300（27.21%）等主要宽基指数。 成份股方面，铜业龙头显著领涨！中证有色金属指数涨幅前6大成份股均为铜业龙头，其中，北方铜业 盘中触板，洛阳钼业涨超8%，铜陵有色、江西铜业涨逾6%。值得关注的是，截至发稿，洛阳钼业获主 力资金净流入超11亿元，霸居A股吸金榜首位！ 数据来源：中证指数公司、沪深交易所等，统计区间： 2025.4.8-2025.9.24 ...

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the commodity industry. Core Viewpoint - In the context of positive liquidity, the commodity market may operate stably in the short term. Geopolitical disturbances persist, but the expectation of loose liquidity and peak demand season provides support [1]. Market Review Overall Market - Last week, the rise - fall ratio of the commodity market was basically flat compared to the previous week. The precious metals sector led the gain with 2.34%, followed by the non - ferrous metals with 0.35%. The energy - chemical, agricultural products, and black sectors declined by 1.26%, 0.65%, and 0.01% respectively [1][5]. - The top - gainers were gold, silver, and aluminum with increases of 2.28%, 2.27%, and 2.05% respectively. The top - losers were natural rubber, palm oil, and asphalt, dropping 3.09%, 2.41%, and 2.01% respectively [1][5]. - The decline of the 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to narrow. Most sectors saw a decrease in volatility. The overall market scale increased, with most of the capital inflow coming from the precious metals sector, while the scale of the black and agricultural products sectors decreased slightly [1]. Sub - sectors - **Precious Metals**: The increase in weekly initial jobless claims and cooling inflation data led the market to fully price in three Fed rate cuts this year. However, the sector showed signs of fatigue after continuous rises. Geopolitical disturbances may amplify short - term fluctuations [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: A weaker dollar and the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season provided support. Although the inventory inflection point was not clear, downstream consumption in the automotive and power industries was strong, and the sector may operate stably in the short term [2]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand and production of rebar continued to decline, and inventory continued to accumulate. Blast furnaces resumed production rapidly, and hot metal output increased significantly. However, low steel mill profits may limit further复产. The raw material market was volatile, and the cost increase supported the industry chain, but price contradictions intensified after the cost rebound [2]. - **Energy**: The IEA's September oil market report showed that the upward adjustment of the supply forecast was greater than that of the demand, increasing the market surplus. Geopolitical factors supported oil prices in the short term, but the mid - term surplus limited the geopolitical premium [2]. - **Chemical Industry**: For polyester, terminal weaving orders increased, and the textile and dyeing industry's operating rate rose slightly. However, high inventory and poor profits of polyester filaments led to slow load increases. The industry chain's valuation may recover relative to oil prices [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: The USDA's September supply - demand report was neutral to bearish. U.S. soybeans rebounded after a brief correction and may continue to be strong in the short term. Palm oil was supported by the mid - term seasonal production cut cycle, long - term biodiesel policies, and aging trees, providing a floor for the oil market [3]. Commodity Fund Overview - Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 2.3%. The total scale of gold ETFs increased by 1.36%, and the total scale of commodity ETFs increased by 1.41%. However, the trading volume of most gold ETFs decreased [35]. - The energy - chemical ETF had a return of - 0.42%, the soybean meal ETF had a return of 0.96%, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a return of 0.88%, and the silver fund had a return of 1.81% [35][36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent oil prices have been fluctuating weakly. The core reason is that the oversupply pressure in the crude oil market has become a reality, overshadowing recent geopolitical disturbances. The oversupply pressure mainly stems from the continuous production increase of global oil - producing entities on the supply side, while the demand side lacks support, and crude oil demand is about to peak and decline. Although macro and geopolitical factors have some influence, they are now secondary. The continuous acceleration of OPEC+'s production - increasing actions is the core driver determining the oil price direction, and supply pressure dominates the market. It is still recommended to sell high and pay attention to the rhythm and participate cautiously [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - **Price Trends**: The main contract of US crude oil closed up 0.37%, at $62.60 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 1.18%; the main contract of Brent crude oil rose 0.77%, at $66.88 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 2.11% [9]. - **Position Analysis**: As of the week ending September 9, the speculative net short position of WTI crude oil futures increased by 14,840 lots to 24,905 lots; the speculative net long position of Brent crude oil futures decreased by 41,476 lots to 209,578 lots. The speculative net long position of gasoline futures increased by 8,965 lots to 107,376 lots. As of September 12, the open interest of INE crude oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 80,024 lots, a week - on - week increase of 14,216 lots compared to September 5 [10]. - **Domestic - Foreign Price Spreads**: On Friday (September 12), the price spread between WTI and Brent was - $4.3 per barrel, a decrease of $0.67 per barrel compared to last Friday (September 5); the price spread between SC and WTI was $4.59 per barrel, a decrease of $1.11 per barrel compared to last Friday; the price spread between SC and Brent was $0.29 per barrel, a decrease of $1.78 per barrel compared to last Friday [11]. 3.2. Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Trading**: Weak and fluctuating [12]. - **Arbitrage**: The seasonal spread of gasoline cracking weakens, while that of diesel cracking is strong [12]. - **Options**: Wait and see [12]. 3.3. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: From August 30 to September 5, US crude oil production was 13.495 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 72,000 barrels per day. From September 6 to 12, the number of active US oil rigs was 416, a week - on - week increase of 2 rigs [23]. - **Demand**: From August 30 to September 5, the crude oil input of US refineries was 16.818 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 51,000 barrels per day; the refinery utilization rate was 94.90%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 percentage points [23]. - **Imports and Exports**: From August 30 to September 5, US crude oil exports were 2.745 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 1.139 million barrels per day; petroleum product exports were 7.195 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 471,000 barrels per day. From August 26 to September 1, the seaborne crude oil exports in the Middle East were 18.4189 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 19.77%; this week, Russia's seaborne crude oil exports were 2.9933 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 24.82% [23]. - **Inventory**: As of September 5, the total US commercial crude oil inventory was 424,646 thousand barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3,939 thousand barrels; the total strategic petroleum inventory was 405,224 thousand barrels, a week - on - week increase of 514 thousand barrels; the total oil inventory in the Cushing area was 23,857 thousand barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 365 thousand barrels. As of September 10, the commercial crude oil inventory index at Chinese ports was 110.14, a week - on - week increase of 1.83%; the proportion of storage capacity to total storage capacity was 60.16%, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 percentage points [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is currently caught in a three - way tug - of - war among geopolitical disturbances, macroeconomic concerns, and weakening fundamentals. Short - term geopolitical risks, especially the US policy towards Russia after August 8, remain a major source of price fluctuations, but the premium caused by these risks has partially subsided and its sustainability is questionable. Macroeconomic recession fears have reignited, increasing market volatility and downside risks. The OPEC+ decision to maintain production increases, combined with the approaching end of the seasonal demand peak, will continue to exert pressure on the medium - term fundamentals. Without a major geopolitical supply disruption, time is more of a negative factor for the crude oil market, and the upside potential is limited [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Structure - The report presents the WTI, Brent, and SC forward curves and their respective monthly spreads, showing data from the latest, one - week ago, and two - week ago periods [10][14][16] Supply - The OPEC+ JMMC meeting confirmed a planned production increase of 547,000 barrels per day in September, which means the first - phase two - year复产 plan will be completed one year ahead of schedule. The current production increase is inappropriate given the weakening demand outlook. The US crude oil production, rig count, and North American active fracturing fleet numbers are also presented, along with the production of OPEC+ member countries. The US refinery operating rate and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries (atmospheric and vacuum distillation units) are shown as well [3][20][24] Demand - The report shows the production of crude oil from countries such as Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Oman, Azerbaijan, and Malaysia, which reflects the supply situation from major producing countries and is related to the overall demand in the market [31] Inventory - Data on US crude oil inventories, including strategic petroleum reserves, commercial crude oil in the US, and commercial crude oil in Cushing, are presented. Additionally, the inventories of gasoline, aviation kerosene, and distillate fuel oil in the US are shown [27][29] Position/US Dollar - Information on WTI and Brent fund positions, including non - reportable long and short positions, as well as the total positions of WTI and Brent, is provided. The US dollar index is also presented [32][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests an overall view of "oscillating weakly" for the energy and chemical industry, with specific varieties having different trends such as oscillation, oscillation weakly, oscillation strongly, etc. [1][3][4] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices have fallen for three consecutive days, and the market is closely watching whether US inventories will accumulate effectively. The supply pressure of the chemical industry is increasing, and the demand has shown weakness since June, with an increasing possibility of the industry gradually weakening. [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Trends of Crude Oil and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. In the context of a relatively certain inventory accumulation expectation, oil prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly after the weakening of geopolitical disturbances. [8] - **Chemicals**: Supply has substantially increased, while demand has shown weakness since June. The probability of the chemical industry gradually weakening is increasing. For example, the supply pressure of olefins will suppress industrial profits, and the polyester chain may see a decline in direct demand for raw materials. [2] 2. Analysis of Each Variety - **LPG**: The support from the cost side is weakening, the fundamental pattern of looseness remains unchanged, and the PG futures may oscillate weakly. [3][13] - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely over - estimated stage. [8][9] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is relatively large. [3][9][10] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate and weaken. [3][13] - **Methanol**: The domestic operating load is low, and methanol oscillates. [3][22][23] - **Urea**: The hype sentiment has slowed down, and the futures may return to the fundamentals, with short - term pressure on urea. [3][23][24] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The resumption of device production is less than expected, and ethylene glycol will continue the low - inventory pattern. [3][17][18] - **PX**: The US sanctions against Russia are less than expected, and PX oscillates and consolidates. [15] - **PTA**: The driving force is not obvious, and PTA consolidates. [15] - **Short - Fiber**: It fluctuates with raw materials, and the basis remains stable. [18][20] - **Bottle Chip**: The basis weakens slightly, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials. [20][21] - **PP**: As oil prices fall, PP oscillates. [3][26] - **Plastic**: As oil prices decline, plastic oscillates and weakens. [3][25] - **Pure Benzene**: Due to the lack of confidence of styrene bulls and the decline of crude oil, pure benzene falls back. [15] - **Styrene**: The risk of cornering declines, and styrene falls. [15][16][17] - **PVC**: The sentiment cools down in stages, and PVC runs weakly. [3][28] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has reached the peak, and caustic soda oscillates. [3][28][29] 3. Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.9 with a change of - 0.03, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is 48 with a change of 22. [30] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 192 with a change of - 1, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82300. [31] - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also specific values and changes for inter - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 294 with a change of 47. [32] - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: It involves the monitoring of basis and spreads of various chemical varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the text. [33][45][57]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **oil industry**, focusing on the supply and demand dynamics, macroeconomic influences, and price predictions for the year [1][22]. Key Points and Arguments Oil Supply Dynamics - Approximately **90% of oil extraction projects** have costs that can be fully covered, indicating a willingness to produce oil at current price levels [2][22]. - The **minimum production cost** for oil is estimated to be around **50 to 60 USD per barrel**; prices significantly below this threshold may lead to reduced production [2][22]. - The **U.S. accounts for over 15%** of global oil production, and combined with other major producers, they control **60 to 70%** of global supply [3][22]. - OPEC's strategy has shifted from production cuts to increases, while U.S. production is expected to continue expanding due to capital expenditures and capacity utilization [3][22]. Geopolitical Influences - The potential resolution of the **Russia-Ukraine conflict** may not significantly impact global oil supply, as any increase in Russian production would only account for **0.6%** of global output in 2023 [4][22]. - The ongoing **Middle East conflicts** are viewed as a major uncertainty, with expectations that hostilities may continue rather than resolve [7][22]. Demand Factors - European economic recovery is projected to increase global oil demand by **0.3%**, with GDP growth expected to rise to **2%** compared to historical averages [5][22]. - Infrastructure projects in **Germany** are estimated to contribute an additional **0.2%** to global oil demand [6][22]. - The reconstruction efforts in **Ukraine**, particularly in railways, could add **0.6%** to global oil demand, although the timeline for these projects remains uncertain [6][22]. Long-term Trends - A significant decline in **China's oil consumption** is anticipated in the next few years, with projections showing a negative growth rate, contrasting with previous forecasts of **8%** growth over the next decade [18][22]. - The rise of **electric vehicles** is expected to coincide with this decline in oil demand, exerting downward pressure on oil prices in the long term [18][22]. - The concept of **de-dollarization** is expected to increase oil price volatility, as the stability of the dollar-based oil trading system diminishes [20][22]. Price Predictions - Short-term supply disruptions may lead to upward pressure on oil prices, with a potential price range of **60 to 65 USD per barrel** [21][22]. - By the end of the year, oil prices are projected to average around **75 USD per barrel**, reflecting a **10% increase** from mid-year levels [23][22]. - Long-term expectations indicate a downward trend in oil prices, with a likelihood of continued declines in the following years [22][23]. Additional Important Insights - The impact of **wildfires** on oil production is currently minimal, affecting about **350,000 barrels per day** [11][22]. - The effectiveness of **new technologies** in enhancing production efficiency and resource utilization is noted, potentially revitalizing older wells [17][22]. - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious optimism for short-term price increases, while long-term forecasts suggest a bearish outlook for oil prices [22][23].

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3473.13 points, up 0.02%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10435.51 points, down 0.70% [1] - The total trading volume reached 476.2 billion yuan for Shanghai and 932.4 billion yuan for Shenzhen [1] Foreign Exchange and Gold Reserves - As of June 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves increased to 331.74 billion USD, up 3.22 billion USD from May, marking a rise of 0.98% [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for the eighth consecutive month, with a notable rise in the pace of accumulation [1] - A survey indicated that 43% of 72 central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, a significant increase from 29% last year, marking an eight-year high [1] Investment Opportunities in "Anti-Competition" Policies - The "anti-involution" policy is drawing investor attention, particularly in industries like photovoltaics and electric vehicles, which are experiencing intense competition [2][5] - The focus of the current "anti-involution" initiative is on regulating low-price competition rather than addressing overcapacity [5] - The photovoltaic upstream silicon industry has seen price increases, with multi-crystalline silicon prices rising to 37 yuan/kg, up 2.5 yuan/kg [3] Steel Industry Insights - The steel industry is a key focus of the "anti-involution" policy, with expectations of reduced production leading to potential price increases [5][6] - A forecast suggests that a reduction of 30 million tons in crude steel production could lead to a price increase of 229 yuan/ton for rebar, effectively doubling current industry profits [5] - Steel companies are benefiting from lower raw material costs, which may sustain profit margins and stabilize sales prices [6] Dividend Policies and Investment Strategies - New policies encourage listed companies, especially state-owned enterprises, to enhance dividend policies, which can improve investor returns and market valuations [7] - Investors are advised to consider dividend-focused ETFs and cash flow ETFs, as these are expected to perform well in the current economic climate [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical disturbances and ongoing tariff risks on short-term gold trading, emphasizing the importance of order flow analysis for entry signals [1] Group 1: Geopolitical and Tariff Risks - Geopolitical disturbances are influencing market dynamics, creating uncertainty in gold prices [1] - Tariff risks remain a concern, potentially affecting trade and investment strategies [1] Group 2: Gold Trading Insights - Real-time analysis of gold order flow is being conducted to identify potential entry signals for traders [1] - The involvement of experts, referred to as "阿汤哥" and "顺姐," indicates a focus on providing actionable insights for market participants [1]

Group 1 - The article focuses on the movements of the Federal Reserve and the impact of geopolitical disturbances on gold trading [1] - It emphasizes the importance of understanding technical analysis to interpret the intentions of major market players and to trade accordingly [1] - The article invites participants to join a free training camp led by expert instructors, limited to the first 50 sign-ups [1]

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