中辉能化观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 欧洲柴油价格上涨带动油价反弹。成品油：欧美成品油利润良好，欧洲柴 | | 原油 | | 油价格大涨带动油价反弹；供需：消费淡季，OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美 | | | | 国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。策略：空单部分止盈。 | | | | 基差偏高，期货盘面偏高估，价格承压。成本端原油受俄乌地缘扰动，震 | | LPG | | 荡调整；供需方面，液化气商品量下降，下游 PDH 开工小幅下降，需求 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 端韧性较强；库存端利好，港口与厂内库存连续去库。策略：轻仓试空。 | | | | 社会库存缓慢去化，盘面低位震荡。国内开工季节性回升，近期进口资源 | | L | 空头盘整 | 集中到港，国内外供给充足。下游开工率连续 5 周下滑，11 月下旬后棚膜 | | ★ | | 旺季逐步收尾，需求支部不足。油价中期仍存下移风险，成本支撑不足。 | | | | 策略：绝对价格低位，空单 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on asphalt is weak and volatile [3]. Core Viewpoint - Crude oil prices have dropped from short - term highs, and asphalt has continued to decline due to poor fundamentals. The supply and demand of asphalt in China have both declined this week. The overall inventory is in a destocking pattern, and the cost is influenced by the fluctuation of crude oil prices. The overall trend of asphalt continues to follow the fluctuation of crude oil [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In November, the production plan of domestic asphalt refineries decreased. The planned output of domestic asphalt refineries in November 2025 was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 292,000 tons (18.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 91,000 tons. This week, both supply and demand of domestic asphalt declined. The decline in supply was mainly due to the active reduction of production capacity by some refineries and the suspension of production in some others [3]. - **Demand**: Affected by the capital situation and cold air in the north, the markets in Shandong and North China were sluggish. The demand in the north gradually stopped, and the downstream demand in the south increased and decreased intermittently. The overall demand declined. This week's total shipment volume was 445,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.1%. It is expected that the industry's shipment volume will further decline next week [3]. - **Inventory**: This week, the factory and warehouse inventories in various regions of China showed a mixed trend of increase and decrease, and the overall inventory continued to be destocked. The destocking performance in East China was particularly prominent [3]. - **Cost**: At the beginning of this week, international oil prices rose slightly for three consecutive days due to multiple positive factors. In the later part of the week, oil prices fell for two consecutive days due to concerns about interest rate cuts, rising risk - aversion sentiment, and other factors. Overall, the oil price at the end of this week dropped compared with last week, and the average price this week also decreased compared with last week [3]. - **Investment View and Trading Strategy**: The investment view is weak and volatile. The trading strategy for unilateral trading is weak and volatile, and there is no arbitrage strategy [3]. 2. Price - The document provides the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China) from 2025/01 to 2025/11 [5]. 3. Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - **Spread**: The document shows the asphalt crack spread (BU - (SC*6.35)) and the spread between asphalt and coker feedstock from 2021 to 2025 [15]. - **Basis**: It presents the basis of asphalt in main regions (South China, East China, Shandong) from 2024/01 to 2025/10 [16]. 4. Supply - **Production Plan Expectation**: It shows the monthly production plan and actual production of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10, as well as the production in North China, South China, Shandong, and East China in different years [19][23][26]. - **Capacity Utilization**: It provides the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025 [31][33][35][37]. - **Maintenance Loss**: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss of asphalt production in China from 2018 to 2025 [42]. 5. Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: It shows the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [45][46]. - **Diluted Asphalt**: It provides the price, premium/discount, port inventory in China and Shandong of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [49][50]. 6. Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [54][57]. - **Social Inventory**: It presents the social inventory in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [60]. 7. Demand - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the shipment volume of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [63]. - **Downstream开工率**: It provides the开工率 of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025 [66][67][69]. - **Modified Asphalt开工率**: It shows the开工率 of modified asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [72].

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: October 31, 2025 - Research Analyst: Xu Liang Z0002220 - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - High-sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil, but its volatility increases due to high inventories and the impact of arbitrage cargoes [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Information - Geopolitical disturbances and the lack of significant increase in OPEC supply have led to a strong and volatile crude oil price, supporting the cost center of high-sulfur fuel oil [3]. - The stable marine demand for high-sulfur fuel oil supports the fundamentals, while the supply of non-sanctioned resources is tight [3]. - The fuel oil inventory in Fujairah increased by 25.92% week-on-week to 8.86 million barrels, reaching a new high for the year, indicating oversupply [3]. - The stable inflow of low-sulfur components from the Middle East and West Africa into Asia, combined with the continuous output of high-sulfur resources from Russia, suppresses the market structure [3]. 3.2 Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Price and Spread Data | Location | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 2025 - 10 - 30 | 2025 - 10 - 24 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 454.24 | 451.08 | 448.21 | 3.16 | 6.03 | | Rotterdam Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 418.56 | 417.47 | 419.27 | 1.09 | -0.71 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/barrel) | 68.71 | 68.43 | 69.07 | 0.28 | 0.13 | | China LU Futures M + 3 (CNY/ton) | 3306 | 3272 | 3250 | 34 | 56 | | LU Futures M + 3 - Singapore Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 10.4709 | 5.1815 | 6.7305 | 5.2894 | 3.7404 | | Singapore - Rotterdam Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 33.87 | 31.7 | 24.56 | 2.17 | 9.31 | | Singapore Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil vs Brent M + 2 Crack | 7.38 | 7.17 | 6.05 | 0.21 | 1.33 | | Rotterdam Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil vs Brent M + 2 Crack | 1.71 | 1.88 | 1.56 | -0.17 | 0.15 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil vs Brent M + 2 Crack | 4.57 | 4.42 | 4.3 | 0.15 | 0.27 | | Singapore Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | -0.65 | -0.81 | -3.05 | 0.16 | 2.4 | | Rotterdam Low-Sulfur Monthly Spread | 1.16 | 1.1 | -0.32 | 0.06 | 1.48 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low-Sulfur Monthly Spread | 2.4765 | 1.778 | -0.6985 | 0.6985 | 3.175 | | LuM + 3 - M + 4 Monthly Spread (USD) | 2.9522 | 3.3718 | -1.6847 | -0.4196 | 4.6369 | | Singapore High-Low Sulfur Spread M + 2 | 69.96 | 69.23 | 63.28 | 0.73 | 6.68 | [5] 3.3 High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Price and Spread Data | Location | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 2025 - 10 - 30 | 2025 - 10 - 24 | Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore High-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 381.05 | 378.35 | 392.35 | 2.7 | -11.3 | | Rotterdam High-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 394.95 | 392.6 | 397.1 | 2.35 | -2.15 | | US Gulf of Mexico High-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/barrel) | 59 | 58.56 | 59.44 | 0.44 | -0.44 | | China FU Futures M + 1 Price (CNY/ton) | 2959 | 2968 | 2916 | -9 | 43 | | Singapore High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | -3.22 | -3.5 | -1.62 | 0.28 | -1.6 | | Rotterdam High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 8.47 | 8.5 | 9.38 | -0.03 | -0.91 | | US Gulf of Mexico High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 6.604 | 5.9055 | 6.2865 | 0.6985 | 0.3175 | [24] 3.4 Other Spread Data - FU Monthly Spread (USD/ton): 26.4127 (2025 - 10 - 31), 25.3161 (2025 - 10 - 30), 13.6135 (2025 - 10 - 24), 1.0966 (Daily Change), 12.7992 (Weekly Change) - Singapore High-Low Sulfur Spread M + 1: 72.54 (2025 - 10 - 31), 71.92 (2025 - 10 - 30), 53.48 (2025 - 10 - 24), 0.62 (Daily Change), 19.06 (Weekly Change) - Rotterdam High-Low Sulfur Spread M + 1: 24.45 (2025 - 10 - 31), 25.97 (2025 - 10 - 30), 29.27 (2025 - 10 - 24), -1.52 (Daily Change), -4.82 (Weekly Change) - US Gulf of Mexico High-Low Sulfur Spread M + 1: 64.135 (2025 - 10 - 31), 64.4525 (2025 - 10 - 30), 64.4525 (2025 - 10 - 24), -0.3175 (Daily Change), -0.3175 (Weekly Change) - China High-Sulfur M + 2 - Singapore High-Sulfur M + 1: 8.0261 (2025 - 10 - 31), 13.6029 (2025 - 10 - 30), 9.2148 (2025 - 10 - 24), -5.5768 (Daily Change), -1.1887 (Weekly Change) - Singapore High-Sulfur Fuel Oil vs Brent M + 1 Crack (USD/barrel): -4.74 (2025 - 10 - 31), -4.76 (2025 - 10 - 30), -3.38 (2025 - 10 - 24), 0.02 (Daily Change), -1.36 (Weekly Change) [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides daily market analysis and trading strategies for various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, styrene, rubber, and others. Most products are in a bearish medium - term structure, with short - term trends varying. The analysis combines fundamental and technical aspects to guide trading decisions. 3. Summary by Product (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Sanctions on Russian oil companies shifted the short - term logic to geopolitical factors. After the short - term geopolitical influence is digested, the market will return to supply - demand drivers. The current rise is a rebound [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level is in a short - term rise. It broke through the short - term pressure at 447 today, but the volume shows a reduction in positions, indicating a rebound. The short - term support is at 456 [2]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions and wait to re - enter short positions after breaking the short - term support [2]. (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Although the supply - demand situation has slightly improved due to reduced production from maintenance, the port inventory is still accumulating, and the seasonal inventory accumulation in January is approaching. There is a risk of price collapse, but the market has already priced in some expectations [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline. The intraday trend was volatile today, and the short - term decline structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 6570 [5]. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly - level, and consider taking profit and re - shorting on rebounds. Pay attention to contract roll - over [5]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: The supply in Southeast Asia is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, the cost support is weakening, and the high inventory in China is difficult to reduce [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level are in a decline. There was a small rebound with reduced positions today. The short - term pressure is at 15450 [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly - level, with a stop - profit reference of 15450 [7]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The supply - demand fundamentals have little short - term contradiction. The demand recovery is mainly due to post - holiday seasonality, and the supply is expected to increase. The prices of crude oil and butadiene are the main driving factors, and the price of butadiene may decline [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level are in a decline. There was a small rebound with reduced positions today. The short - term pressure is at 11300 [11]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly - level, with a stop - profit reference of 11300 [11]. (5) PX - **Logic**: The supply - demand situation improved slightly last week, but the high - supply pattern remains. The price is mainly driven by the cost of crude oil [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term rise. It broke through the short - term pressure at 6460 - 6480 with reduced positions today. The support is at 6425 [13]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions on the hourly - level [13]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: The supply pressure is high due to expected new production and restart of plants, and the demand is flat. The price is mainly driven by the cost of crude oil [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term rise. There was a small rebound with reduced positions today. The short - term support is at 4470 [16]. - **Strategy**: Wait and observe on the hourly - level [16]. (7) PP - **Logic**: The expected new production from Guangxi Petrochemical will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand is weak during the peak season, and the overseas demand is low. The cost is under pressure due to the decline in crude oil prices [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline. There was a rebound with reduced positions today. The short - term pressure is at 6740 [20]. - **Strategy**: Wait and observe on the hourly - level [20]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: The monthly spread structure has strengthened, indicating potential long - trading opportunities in the future. However, currently, the high domestic supply and inventory are suppressing the price. The seasonal gas - limit in Iran may bring long - trading opportunities later [22][24]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level are in a decline. There was a rebound with reduced positions today. The short - term pressure is at 2320 [24]. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly - level cautiously, with a stop - profit at 2320. Consider using methanol as a long - position in a hedging strategy after breaking through the pressure [24]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: The supply is high due to the "chlor - alkali balance" strategy. The domestic real - estate demand is low, and the social inventory is accumulating [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level are in a decline. The intraday trend was volatile today, and the short - term decline structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 4800 [27]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly - level [27]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The restart of previously - shut - down plants and expected new production are increasing the supply pressure. The port inventory is starting to accumulate, and the low - inventory support is disappearing [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level is in a short - term rise. It broke through the short - term pressure at 4060 with reduced positions today. The short - term support is below 4045 [28]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions on the hourly - level [28]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: The expected new production from Guangxi Petrochemical will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand is weak during the peak season, and the cost is under pressure due to the decline in crude oil prices [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level is in a short - term rise. It broke through the short - term pressure at 6940 with reduced positions today [32]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on the remaining short positions on the hourly - level [32]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory situation is intensifying. The demand from the glass industry is unlikely to improve significantly, and there is no substantial policy intervention on the supply side. The macro - environment is also bearish [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline. There was a rebound with reduced positions today, and the short - term decline structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 1260 [34]. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly - level [34]. (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The supply pressure will increase in the medium - term due to the restart of previously - shut - down plants and new production. The downstream demand from alumina is limited, and the overall demand is stable. The supply - demand situation is bearish [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline. The intraday trend was volatile today, and the short - term decline structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 2470 [36]. - **Strategy**: Wait and observe after taking profit before the holiday, as there is no good entry point currently [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PG's main contract rose significantly due to macro and geopolitical news disturbances. The basis was -20 (-334), and the November - December spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil gas prices dropped sharply. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4200 (-250); East China was at 4345 (-39), and South China was at 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warrants. The external market prices tumbled; the FEI monthly spread was -10 USD (+5), and the CP monthly spread was -4 USD (+5). The domestic - foreign price difference PG - CP reached 132 (+27); PG - FEI reached 112 (+14). FEI - CP reached 20 (+12.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane in South China increased significantly to 78 (+26). Freight rates dropped sharply, with the US Gulf - Japan at 108 (-18) and the Middle East - Far East at 60.5 (-2.5). FEI - MOPJ narrowed but the switching window remained open, at -71 (-12). The profit of PDH to propylene decreased. Inventory pressure was high, and short - term supply pressure was large, but there was support from chemical demand, and the expectation of combustion demand was warming up. The PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12pct), with the second phase of Zhongjing resuming, but Bohua under maintenance and Wanda Tianhong on short - term shutdown; enterprises were expected to gradually increase their loads next week. Although the spot supply pressure was large and the PG basis turned negative after a sharp drop, due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances, the futures market might not decline significantly in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Changes - On 2025/10/17 compared with the previous day, the daily changes were as follows: South China LPG was -40, East China LPG was -24, Shandong LPG was -80, propane CFR South China was -5, propane CIF Japan was -13, CP forecast contract price was -5, Shandong ether - after carbon four was -40, Shandong alkylated oil was -30, and the main basis was -21. On Friday, civil gas prices dropped, with East China at 4345 (-24), Shandong at 4200 (-80), and South China at 4460 (-40). Ether - after carbon four was at 4420 (-40). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of -20 (-32), and the November - December spread was 137 (+7). FEI and CP dropped to 469 (-5) and 447 (-5) dollars/ton respectively [1] 3.2 Weekly Views - The PG main contract rose significantly due to macro and geopolitical news. The basis was -20 (-334), and the November - December spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4200 (-250), East China at 4345 (-39), and South China at 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warrants. External prices dropped significantly; FEI monthly spread was -10 USD (+5), CP monthly spread was -4 USD (+5). The domestic - foreign price differences changed: PG - CP reached 132 (+27), PG - FEI reached 112 (+14), FEI - CP reached 20 (+12.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. CP propane and butane arrival discounts in South China increased significantly to 78 (+26). Freight rates dropped significantly, US Gulf - Japan was 108 (-18), Middle East - Far East was 60.5 (-2.5). FEI - MOPJ narrowed but the switching window was still open at -71 (-12). PDH to propylene profit decreased. Inventory pressure was high, short - term supply pressure was large, but there was support from chemical demand and the expectation of combustion demand was warming up. PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12pct), with the second phase of Zhongjing resuming, but Bohua under maintenance and Wanda Tianhong on short - term shutdown; enterprises were expected to gradually increase their loads next week. Despite large spot supply pressure and a sharp drop in the PG basis turning negative, due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances, the futures market might not decline significantly in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail prices of refined oil in China have been reduced for the eighth time this year, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 75 yuan and 70 yuan per ton respectively, leading to lower costs for consumers and logistics companies [1][2][3]. Price Adjustment Summary - The recent price adjustment results in a decrease of approximately 0.06 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel. This year, there have been 20 rounds of price adjustments, including 6 increases, 6 pauses, and 8 decreases [2][3]. - For a typical private car with a 50-liter fuel tank, filling up will cost 3 yuan less, while for large logistics vehicles carrying 50 tons, the fuel cost per 100 kilometers will decrease by 2.4 yuan [3]. Market Trends - Market analysts expect a high probability of further price reductions in the next round of adjustments due to the overall weak demand in the refined oil market [4]. - During the current price adjustment cycle, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have shown a downward trend, with limited replenishment intentions from downstream industries [5][6]. Demand and Supply Analysis - The demand for gasoline has weakened as consumers return to regular commuting, while diesel demand remains sluggish due to adverse weather conditions affecting outdoor work [6]. - Analysts suggest that while diesel demand may see some improvement due to upcoming logistics activities, gasoline prices are likely to remain under pressure without significant holiday demand [7]. International Oil Price Dynamics - The international crude oil prices experienced fluctuations, initially rising due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production plans, but later declining as geopolitical premiums receded [8][9]. - Current market conditions indicate a cautious growth in global oil supply, with expectations of oversupply reinforcing downward pressure on oil prices [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with the non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) experiencing a significant jump, reflecting strong performance since its low point in April 2023, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) saw a peak intraday increase of 2.7% and is currently up 1.8% [1] - Since the low on April 8, 2023, the ETF has risen by 55.21%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite (24.45%) and CSI 300 (27.21%) [1] - The top six constituents of the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index are all copper industry leaders, with notable gains from Northern Copper and Luoyang Molybdenum [1][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - A landslide at the Grasberg copper mine, the world's second-largest, has halted production, with Freeport estimating a 35% drop in copper and gold output for 2026 and a return to pre-accident production levels not expected until 2027 [3] - Short-term factors such as tariff suspensions and supply disruptions are expected to support copper prices, while long-term demand from home appliance subsidies and increased investment in power grids may further elevate price levels [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Huabao Fund suggests increasing allocation to the non-ferrous sector, as the economic recovery's impact on cyclical goods has yet to be fully realized [3] - CITIC Construction anticipates that domestic policies aimed at optimizing production factors will enhance profitability across the supply chain, benefiting metal prices [3] Group 4: Sector Composition - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) and its linked funds provide diversified exposure to various metals, with copper, aluminum, rare earths, gold, and lithium comprising 25.3%, 14.2%, 13.8%, 13.6%, and 7.6% of the index, respectively [5]

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the commodity industry. Core Viewpoint - In the context of positive liquidity, the commodity market may operate stably in the short term. Geopolitical disturbances persist, but the expectation of loose liquidity and peak demand season provides support [1]. Market Review Overall Market - Last week, the rise - fall ratio of the commodity market was basically flat compared to the previous week. The precious metals sector led the gain with 2.34%, followed by the non - ferrous metals with 0.35%. The energy - chemical, agricultural products, and black sectors declined by 1.26%, 0.65%, and 0.01% respectively [1][5]. - The top - gainers were gold, silver, and aluminum with increases of 2.28%, 2.27%, and 2.05% respectively. The top - losers were natural rubber, palm oil, and asphalt, dropping 3.09%, 2.41%, and 2.01% respectively [1][5]. - The decline of the 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to narrow. Most sectors saw a decrease in volatility. The overall market scale increased, with most of the capital inflow coming from the precious metals sector, while the scale of the black and agricultural products sectors decreased slightly [1]. Sub - sectors - **Precious Metals**: The increase in weekly initial jobless claims and cooling inflation data led the market to fully price in three Fed rate cuts this year. However, the sector showed signs of fatigue after continuous rises. Geopolitical disturbances may amplify short - term fluctuations [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: A weaker dollar and the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season provided support. Although the inventory inflection point was not clear, downstream consumption in the automotive and power industries was strong, and the sector may operate stably in the short term [2]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand and production of rebar continued to decline, and inventory continued to accumulate. Blast furnaces resumed production rapidly, and hot metal output increased significantly. However, low steel mill profits may limit further复产. The raw material market was volatile, and the cost increase supported the industry chain, but price contradictions intensified after the cost rebound [2]. - **Energy**: The IEA's September oil market report showed that the upward adjustment of the supply forecast was greater than that of the demand, increasing the market surplus. Geopolitical factors supported oil prices in the short term, but the mid - term surplus limited the geopolitical premium [2]. - **Chemical Industry**: For polyester, terminal weaving orders increased, and the textile and dyeing industry's operating rate rose slightly. However, high inventory and poor profits of polyester filaments led to slow load increases. The industry chain's valuation may recover relative to oil prices [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: The USDA's September supply - demand report was neutral to bearish. U.S. soybeans rebounded after a brief correction and may continue to be strong in the short term. Palm oil was supported by the mid - term seasonal production cut cycle, long - term biodiesel policies, and aging trees, providing a floor for the oil market [3]. Commodity Fund Overview - Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 2.3%. The total scale of gold ETFs increased by 1.36%, and the total scale of commodity ETFs increased by 1.41%. However, the trading volume of most gold ETFs decreased [35]. - The energy - chemical ETF had a return of - 0.42%, the soybean meal ETF had a return of 0.96%, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a return of 0.88%, and the silver fund had a return of 1.81% [35][36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent oil prices have been fluctuating weakly. The core reason is that the oversupply pressure in the crude oil market has become a reality, overshadowing recent geopolitical disturbances. The oversupply pressure mainly stems from the continuous production increase of global oil - producing entities on the supply side, while the demand side lacks support, and crude oil demand is about to peak and decline. Although macro and geopolitical factors have some influence, they are now secondary. The continuous acceleration of OPEC+'s production - increasing actions is the core driver determining the oil price direction, and supply pressure dominates the market. It is still recommended to sell high and pay attention to the rhythm and participate cautiously [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - **Price Trends**: The main contract of US crude oil closed up 0.37%, at $62.60 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 1.18%; the main contract of Brent crude oil rose 0.77%, at $66.88 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 2.11% [9]. - **Position Analysis**: As of the week ending September 9, the speculative net short position of WTI crude oil futures increased by 14,840 lots to 24,905 lots; the speculative net long position of Brent crude oil futures decreased by 41,476 lots to 209,578 lots. The speculative net long position of gasoline futures increased by 8,965 lots to 107,376 lots. As of September 12, the open interest of INE crude oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 80,024 lots, a week - on - week increase of 14,216 lots compared to September 5 [10]. - **Domestic - Foreign Price Spreads**: On Friday (September 12), the price spread between WTI and Brent was - $4.3 per barrel, a decrease of $0.67 per barrel compared to last Friday (September 5); the price spread between SC and WTI was $4.59 per barrel, a decrease of $1.11 per barrel compared to last Friday; the price spread between SC and Brent was $0.29 per barrel, a decrease of $1.78 per barrel compared to last Friday [11]. 3.2. Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Trading**: Weak and fluctuating [12]. - **Arbitrage**: The seasonal spread of gasoline cracking weakens, while that of diesel cracking is strong [12]. - **Options**: Wait and see [12]. 3.3. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: From August 30 to September 5, US crude oil production was 13.495 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 72,000 barrels per day. From September 6 to 12, the number of active US oil rigs was 416, a week - on - week increase of 2 rigs [23]. - **Demand**: From August 30 to September 5, the crude oil input of US refineries was 16.818 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 51,000 barrels per day; the refinery utilization rate was 94.90%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 percentage points [23]. - **Imports and Exports**: From August 30 to September 5, US crude oil exports were 2.745 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 1.139 million barrels per day; petroleum product exports were 7.195 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 471,000 barrels per day. From August 26 to September 1, the seaborne crude oil exports in the Middle East were 18.4189 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 19.77%; this week, Russia's seaborne crude oil exports were 2.9933 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 24.82% [23]. - **Inventory**: As of September 5, the total US commercial crude oil inventory was 424,646 thousand barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3,939 thousand barrels; the total strategic petroleum inventory was 405,224 thousand barrels, a week - on - week increase of 514 thousand barrels; the total oil inventory in the Cushing area was 23,857 thousand barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 365 thousand barrels. As of September 10, the commercial crude oil inventory index at Chinese ports was 110.14, a week - on - week increase of 1.83%; the proportion of storage capacity to total storage capacity was 60.16%, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 percentage points [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is currently caught in a three - way tug - of - war among geopolitical disturbances, macroeconomic concerns, and weakening fundamentals. Short - term geopolitical risks, especially the US policy towards Russia after August 8, remain a major source of price fluctuations, but the premium caused by these risks has partially subsided and its sustainability is questionable. Macroeconomic recession fears have reignited, increasing market volatility and downside risks. The OPEC+ decision to maintain production increases, combined with the approaching end of the seasonal demand peak, will continue to exert pressure on the medium - term fundamentals. Without a major geopolitical supply disruption, time is more of a negative factor for the crude oil market, and the upside potential is limited [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Structure - The report presents the WTI, Brent, and SC forward curves and their respective monthly spreads, showing data from the latest, one - week ago, and two - week ago periods [10][14][16] Supply - The OPEC+ JMMC meeting confirmed a planned production increase of 547,000 barrels per day in September, which means the first - phase two - year复产 plan will be completed one year ahead of schedule. The current production increase is inappropriate given the weakening demand outlook. The US crude oil production, rig count, and North American active fracturing fleet numbers are also presented, along with the production of OPEC+ member countries. The US refinery operating rate and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries (atmospheric and vacuum distillation units) are shown as well [3][20][24] Demand - The report shows the production of crude oil from countries such as Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Oman, Azerbaijan, and Malaysia, which reflects the supply situation from major producing countries and is related to the overall demand in the market [31] Inventory - Data on US crude oil inventories, including strategic petroleum reserves, commercial crude oil in the US, and commercial crude oil in Cushing, are presented. Additionally, the inventories of gasoline, aviation kerosene, and distillate fuel oil in the US are shown [27][29] Position/US Dollar - Information on WTI and Brent fund positions, including non - reportable long and short positions, as well as the total positions of WTI and Brent, is provided. The US dollar index is also presented [32][33]