Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is currently caught in a three - way tug - of - war among geopolitical disturbances, macroeconomic concerns, and weakening fundamentals. Short - term geopolitical risks, especially the US policy towards Russia after August 8, remain a major source of price fluctuations, but the premium caused by these risks has partially subsided and its sustainability is questionable. Macroeconomic recession fears have reignited, increasing market volatility and downside risks. The OPEC+ decision to maintain production increases, combined with the approaching end of the seasonal demand peak, will continue to exert pressure on the medium - term fundamentals. Without a major geopolitical supply disruption, time is more of a negative factor for the crude oil market, and the upside potential is limited [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Structure - The report presents the WTI, Brent, and SC forward curves and their respective monthly spreads, showing data from the latest, one - week ago, and two - week ago periods [10][14][16] Supply - The OPEC+ JMMC meeting confirmed a planned production increase of 547,000 barrels per day in September, which means the first - phase two - year复产 plan will be completed one year ahead of schedule. The current production increase is inappropriate given the weakening demand outlook. The US crude oil production, rig count, and North American active fracturing fleet numbers are also presented, along with the production of OPEC+ member countries. The US refinery operating rate and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries (atmospheric and vacuum distillation units) are shown as well [3][20][24] Demand - The report shows the production of crude oil from countries such as Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Oman, Azerbaijan, and Malaysia, which reflects the supply situation from major producing countries and is related to the overall demand in the market [31] Inventory - Data on US crude oil inventories, including strategic petroleum reserves, commercial crude oil in the US, and commercial crude oil in Cushing, are presented. Additionally, the inventories of gasoline, aviation kerosene, and distillate fuel oil in the US are shown [27][29] Position/US Dollar - Information on WTI and Brent fund positions, including non - reportable long and short positions, as well as the total positions of WTI and Brent, is provided. The US dollar index is also presented [32][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests an overall view of "oscillating weakly" for the energy and chemical industry, with specific varieties having different trends such as oscillation, oscillation weakly, oscillation strongly, etc. [1][3][4] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices have fallen for three consecutive days, and the market is closely watching whether US inventories will accumulate effectively. The supply pressure of the chemical industry is increasing, and the demand has shown weakness since June, with an increasing possibility of the industry gradually weakening. [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Trends of Crude Oil and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. In the context of a relatively certain inventory accumulation expectation, oil prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly after the weakening of geopolitical disturbances. [8] - **Chemicals**: Supply has substantially increased, while demand has shown weakness since June. The probability of the chemical industry gradually weakening is increasing. For example, the supply pressure of olefins will suppress industrial profits, and the polyester chain may see a decline in direct demand for raw materials. [2] 2. Analysis of Each Variety - **LPG**: The support from the cost side is weakening, the fundamental pattern of looseness remains unchanged, and the PG futures may oscillate weakly. [3][13] - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely over - estimated stage. [8][9] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is relatively large. [3][9][10] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate and weaken. [3][13] - **Methanol**: The domestic operating load is low, and methanol oscillates. [3][22][23] - **Urea**: The hype sentiment has slowed down, and the futures may return to the fundamentals, with short - term pressure on urea. [3][23][24] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The resumption of device production is less than expected, and ethylene glycol will continue the low - inventory pattern. [3][17][18] - **PX**: The US sanctions against Russia are less than expected, and PX oscillates and consolidates. [15] - **PTA**: The driving force is not obvious, and PTA consolidates. [15] - **Short - Fiber**: It fluctuates with raw materials, and the basis remains stable. [18][20] - **Bottle Chip**: The basis weakens slightly, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials. [20][21] - **PP**: As oil prices fall, PP oscillates. [3][26] - **Plastic**: As oil prices decline, plastic oscillates and weakens. [3][25] - **Pure Benzene**: Due to the lack of confidence of styrene bulls and the decline of crude oil, pure benzene falls back. [15] - **Styrene**: The risk of cornering declines, and styrene falls. [15][16][17] - **PVC**: The sentiment cools down in stages, and PVC runs weakly. [3][28] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has reached the peak, and caustic soda oscillates. [3][28][29] 3. Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.9 with a change of - 0.03, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is 48 with a change of 22. [30] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 192 with a change of - 1, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82300. [31] - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also specific values and changes for inter - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 294 with a change of 47. [32] - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: It involves the monitoring of basis and spreads of various chemical varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the text. [33][45][57]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **oil industry**, focusing on the supply and demand dynamics, macroeconomic influences, and price predictions for the year [1][22]. Key Points and Arguments Oil Supply Dynamics - Approximately **90% of oil extraction projects** have costs that can be fully covered, indicating a willingness to produce oil at current price levels [2][22]. - The **minimum production cost** for oil is estimated to be around **50 to 60 USD per barrel**; prices significantly below this threshold may lead to reduced production [2][22]. - The **U.S. accounts for over 15%** of global oil production, and combined with other major producers, they control **60 to 70%** of global supply [3][22]. - OPEC's strategy has shifted from production cuts to increases, while U.S. production is expected to continue expanding due to capital expenditures and capacity utilization [3][22]. Geopolitical Influences - The potential resolution of the **Russia-Ukraine conflict** may not significantly impact global oil supply, as any increase in Russian production would only account for **0.6%** of global output in 2023 [4][22]. - The ongoing **Middle East conflicts** are viewed as a major uncertainty, with expectations that hostilities may continue rather than resolve [7][22]. Demand Factors - European economic recovery is projected to increase global oil demand by **0.3%**, with GDP growth expected to rise to **2%** compared to historical averages [5][22]. - Infrastructure projects in **Germany** are estimated to contribute an additional **0.2%** to global oil demand [6][22]. - The reconstruction efforts in **Ukraine**, particularly in railways, could add **0.6%** to global oil demand, although the timeline for these projects remains uncertain [6][22]. Long-term Trends - A significant decline in **China's oil consumption** is anticipated in the next few years, with projections showing a negative growth rate, contrasting with previous forecasts of **8%** growth over the next decade [18][22]. - The rise of **electric vehicles** is expected to coincide with this decline in oil demand, exerting downward pressure on oil prices in the long term [18][22]. - The concept of **de-dollarization** is expected to increase oil price volatility, as the stability of the dollar-based oil trading system diminishes [20][22]. Price Predictions - Short-term supply disruptions may lead to upward pressure on oil prices, with a potential price range of **60 to 65 USD per barrel** [21][22]. - By the end of the year, oil prices are projected to average around **75 USD per barrel**, reflecting a **10% increase** from mid-year levels [23][22]. - Long-term expectations indicate a downward trend in oil prices, with a likelihood of continued declines in the following years [22][23]. Additional Important Insights - The impact of **wildfires** on oil production is currently minimal, affecting about **350,000 barrels per day** [11][22]. - The effectiveness of **new technologies** in enhancing production efficiency and resource utilization is noted, potentially revitalizing older wells [17][22]. - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious optimism for short-term price increases, while long-term forecasts suggest a bearish outlook for oil prices [22][23].

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3473.13 points, up 0.02%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10435.51 points, down 0.70% [1] - The total trading volume reached 476.2 billion yuan for Shanghai and 932.4 billion yuan for Shenzhen [1] Foreign Exchange and Gold Reserves - As of June 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves increased to 331.74 billion USD, up 3.22 billion USD from May, marking a rise of 0.98% [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for the eighth consecutive month, with a notable rise in the pace of accumulation [1] - A survey indicated that 43% of 72 central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, a significant increase from 29% last year, marking an eight-year high [1] Investment Opportunities in "Anti-Competition" Policies - The "anti-involution" policy is drawing investor attention, particularly in industries like photovoltaics and electric vehicles, which are experiencing intense competition [2][5] - The focus of the current "anti-involution" initiative is on regulating low-price competition rather than addressing overcapacity [5] - The photovoltaic upstream silicon industry has seen price increases, with multi-crystalline silicon prices rising to 37 yuan/kg, up 2.5 yuan/kg [3] Steel Industry Insights - The steel industry is a key focus of the "anti-involution" policy, with expectations of reduced production leading to potential price increases [5][6] - A forecast suggests that a reduction of 30 million tons in crude steel production could lead to a price increase of 229 yuan/ton for rebar, effectively doubling current industry profits [5] - Steel companies are benefiting from lower raw material costs, which may sustain profit margins and stabilize sales prices [6] Dividend Policies and Investment Strategies - New policies encourage listed companies, especially state-owned enterprises, to enhance dividend policies, which can improve investor returns and market valuations [7] - Investors are advised to consider dividend-focused ETFs and cash flow ETFs, as these are expected to perform well in the current economic climate [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical disturbances and ongoing tariff risks on short-term gold trading, emphasizing the importance of order flow analysis for entry signals [1] Group 1: Geopolitical and Tariff Risks - Geopolitical disturbances are influencing market dynamics, creating uncertainty in gold prices [1] - Tariff risks remain a concern, potentially affecting trade and investment strategies [1] Group 2: Gold Trading Insights - Real-time analysis of gold order flow is being conducted to identify potential entry signals for traders [1] - The involvement of experts, referred to as "阿汤哥" and "顺姐," indicates a focus on providing actionable insights for market participants [1]

Group 1 - The article focuses on the movements of the Federal Reserve and the impact of geopolitical disturbances on gold trading [1] - It emphasizes the importance of understanding technical analysis to interpret the intentions of major market players and to trade accordingly [1] - The article invites participants to join a free training camp led by expert instructors, limited to the first 50 sign-ups [1]

Report Information - Report Date: June 4, 2025 [1] - Report Title: LPG: Geopolitical Disturbance, Strong Cost [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - No clear core view is presented in the report. Summary by Category LPG Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices and Trading Volume**: PG2507 closed at 4,072 yesterday with a daily increase of 2.00% and a night - session close of 4,082 with a 0.25% increase. PG2508 closed at 3,979 yesterday with a 1.82% increase and a night - session close of 3,984 with a 0.13% increase. The trading volume of PG2507 was 60,587, a decrease of 19,076 from the previous day, and the open interest was 66,910, a decrease of 4,982. The trading volume of PG2508 was 11,988, a decrease of 3,594, and the open interest was 37,319, an increase of 1,031 [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 07 contract was 578 yesterday, down from 708 the previous day. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 07 contract was 628 yesterday, down from 758 the previous day [3]. - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 63.3%, up from 61.2% last week. The MTBE operating rate was 54.2%, down from 55.4% last week. The alkylation operating rate was 48.3%, up from 47.0% last week [3]. Market Information - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On June 2, 2025, the expected price of propane in the July Saudi CP was 577 USD/ton, up 5 USD/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 547 USD/ton, up 5 USD/ton. The expected price of propane in the August Saudi CP was 557 USD/ton, up 4 USD/ton; the expected price of butane was 527 USD/ton, up 4 USD/ton [8]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies, including Puyang Yuandong Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., have PDH device maintenance plans with start times ranging from May 12, 2023, to May 2, 2025, and end times mostly undetermined [8]. - **Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many refineries such as Zhenghe Petrochemical, Panjin Haoye, etc., have device maintenance plans with different start and end times, resulting in varying production losses [10]. Trend Intensity - The LPG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [7].