2026 年 3 月 2 日 LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强 丙烯：成本端地缘扰动，基本面维持偏紧 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 | | | | | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 2603 PG | 4,051 | -4.75% | 4,070 | 0.47% | | 2603 | 2,373 | -9,680 | 801 | -1,372 | | | 2604 | 4,519 | -1.03% | 4,542 | 0.51% | PG | 2604 | 69,348 | -52,948 | 80,333 | -2,932 | | | 2605 | 4,452 | -0.89% ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report focuses on zinc, with a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral view. It also presents news about Iran nuclear - related negotiations and the market's reaction to Nvidia's earnings [1][2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 24,570 yuan/ton, down 0.57%; LME zinc 3M electronic trading closed at 3,387 dollars/ton, down 0.01%. SHFE zinc main contract trading volume was 94,374 lots, an increase of 10,354 lots; LME zinc trading volume was 9,705 lots, a decrease of 4 lots [1]. - **Position and Premium**: SHFE zinc main contract open interest was 92,762 lots, an increase of 3,278 lots; LME zinc open interest was 229,485 lots, a decrease of 782 lots. Shanghai 0 zinc premium was - 45 yuan/ton, unchanged; LME CASH - 3M premium was - 29.64 dollars/ton, an increase of 2.29 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 65,572 tons, an increase of 253 tons; LME zinc inventory was 98,400 tons, a decrease of 1,425 tons. LME zinc cancelled warrants were 7,500 tons, a decrease of 1,825 tons [1]. - **Related Products**: The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,013 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 25,710 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy was 25,135 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 23,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [1]. 2. News - **Iran Nuclear Negotiation**: Iran's foreign minister said that the two sides are close to reaching a consensus in some areas, and technical negotiations will be held in Vienna next Monday. The Omani foreign minister said the negotiations have "made significant progress", but media reported that there are still large differences between the two sides [2]. - **Nvidia's Earnings**: Nvidia has exceeded revenue expectations for 14 consecutive quarters, but the market is concerned about the sustainability of AI demand and Nvidia's supply constraints. Its other business segments underperformed despite strong growth in the data center business [2][3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

本报记者 贺王娟 隆众资讯原油分析师吴燕对《证券日报》记者表示，美伊对峙局势是今年2月份以来推动国际油价强势反弹的重要催化 剂，霍尔木兹海峡作为全球重要的原油运输通道，市场担忧美伊冲突或将影响该运输通道，因此对油价计入了6美元至8美元的 风险溢价。 短期来看，吴燕认为，油价走势将继续由美伊局势主导，若美伊双方新一轮的谈判能达成部分临时协议，国际原油的地缘 风险溢价将回落，若协议没有达成且冲突加剧，或将继续支撑原油价格高位震荡。 受地缘冲突影响，2026年以来国际油价表现强势。Wind数据显示截至北京时间2月26日记者发稿时，NYMEX WTI原油价 格从年初57.5美元/桶的价格最高反弹至67.28美元/桶，年内最高涨幅达17%；ICE布油价格从60.86美元/桶的价格最高反弹至 72.12美元/桶，年内最高涨幅18.5%。 对于近期国际油价的强势反弹，市场普遍认为，一旦地缘扰动消退，在供需过剩的格局下油价或将重回跌势。 "今年以来，国际原油市场价格整体呈偏强走势。"卓创资讯原油分析师朱光明对《证券日报》记者表示，推动原油价格连 续反弹的核心因素在于中东局势的不断扰动，市场非常担忧局势的紧张将带来整个中东冲突 ...

铜：宏观缺乏指引，铜价高位震荡 周三晚沪铜主力震荡收涨于103040元，伦铜运行至约13350美金附近。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 宏观中性。特朗普国情咨文表态指引性不强，海外隔夜消息面清淡，市场风险偏好改善，美元温和走软提振铜价。 基本面中性偏空。昨日上期所铜仓单增加10717吨至28.7万吨，国内现货贴水承压走跌至-200元左右，LME铜累库6475吨至24.96万吨。 总体来看，国内下游复工与国内政策预期对铜价具备提振，不过海外宏观缺乏指引，同时关税摩擦与地缘扰动仍存，预计短期铜价高位宽幅震荡为主。今日 沪铜主力运行参考10.2万-10.4万元/吨。策略上，日内区间为主，中长线逢低布局远月多单。 重要声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，中信建投期货力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。（虞璐 彦/Z0023596，仅供参考） 铝：隔夜氧化铝期货小幅上涨，近期新疆铝厂常规招标万吨现货氧化铝 ...

LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强 2026 年 2 月 25 日 丙烯：基本面维持偏紧，关注节后补库动态 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 | | | | | | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2603 | 4,297 | 1.06% | 4,255 | -0.98% | | 2603 | 26,948 | -22,320 | 12,612 | -3,467 | | | PG | 2604 | 4,582 | 3.76% | 4,535 | -1.03% | PG | 2604 | 79,184 | 26,435 | 80,250 | 9,486 | | 期货市场 | | 26 ...

2026年02月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：成本支撑，趋势仍偏强 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：成本支撑，趋势仍偏强 | 2 | | MEG：区间操作 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强20260224 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡运行 | 6 | | LLDPE：节中地缘扰动，成本支撑偏强震荡 | 8 | | PP：C3原料表现偏强，PDH检修仍高 | 9 | | 烧碱：成本支撑，震荡为主 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260224 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 14 | | 尿素：价格中枢上移 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：偏强震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 19 | | LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强 | 20 | | 丙烯：基本面维持偏紧，关注节后补库动态 | 20 | | PVC：区间震荡 | 23 | | 燃料油：开盘或补涨，短期波动继续放大 | 24 | | 低硫燃料油：跟涨走势为主，外盘现货高低硫价差持续反弹 | 24 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市，区间思路对待 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical disturbances in the LPG market still exist, and the fundamental factors are driving the market downward. The supply - demand of propylene is in a tight balance, and the spot price remains stable [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For LPG (PG), on February 12, 2026, the 2603 contract had a closing price of 4,271 with a daily increase of 0.21%, and a night - session closing price of 4,310 with a night - session increase of 0.91%. The 2604 contract had a closing price of 4,529 with a daily decrease of 0.70%, and a night - session closing price of 4,516 with a night - session decrease of 0.29%. The 2605 contract had a closing price of 4,447 with a daily decrease of 0.56%, and a night - session closing price of 4,428 with a night - session decrease of 0.43%. For propylene (PL), the 2603 contract had a closing price of 6,278 with a daily increase of 0.61%, and a night - session closing price of 6,246 with a night - session decrease of 0.51%. The 2604 contract had a closing price of 6,215 with a daily decrease of 0.42%, and a night - session closing price of 6,220 with a night - session increase of 0.08%. The 2605 contract had a closing price of 6,225 with a daily decrease of 0.75%, and a night - session closing price of 6,228 with a night - session increase of 0.05% [3] - **Spot Market**: For LPG, the Shandong civil LPG price was 4,440, the East China imported LPG price was 5,026, the East China civil LPG price was 4,467 (down 8 from the previous day), the South China imported LPG price was 4,860 (down 5 from the previous day), the South China civil LPG price was 4,750, the Shandong ether - after LPG price was 4,460 (up 10 from the previous day), and the FEI arrival price was 5,002 (down 16 from the previous day). For propylene, the Shandong price was 6,445, the East China price was 6,430, and the South China price was 6,325 [3] - **Industrial Chain开工率**: As of February 13, 2026, the PDH operating rate was 65.57% (up 2.91% from the previous week), the alkylation operating rate was 36.85% (unchanged from the previous week), and the MTBE operating rate was 67.87% (down 0.14% from the previous week) [3] - **LPG Shipping Volume**: On February 12, 2026, from the US to the world, the shipping volume was 32.4 (up 11.9 from the previous day), to Asia was 9.1 (down 4.7 from the previous day), to China was 0.0 (down 4.5 from the previous day), to Japan was 4.5 (unchanged from the previous day), to South Korea was 0.0 (unchanged from the previous day), to India was 4.6 (up 4.6 from the previous day), and to Southeast Asia was 0.0 (unchanged from the previous day). From the Middle East to the world, the shipping volume was 6.4 (up 0.3 from the previous day), to Asia was 6.4 (up 0.3 from the previous day), to China was 0.0 (unchanged from the previous day), to Japan was 0.0 (unchanged from the previous day), to South Korea was 0.0 (unchanged from the previous day), to India was 6.4 (up 4.7 from the previous day), and to Southeast Asia was 0.0 (down 2.2 from the previous day) [3] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [7] 3.3 Market Information - On February 12, 2026, the March CP paper - cargo price of propane was 537 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day), and the butane price was 527 US dollars/ton (down 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day). The April CP paper - cargo price of propane was 522 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day) [8] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. [9] - There are also domestic liquefied gas factory device maintenance plans, such as those of Rizhao (China Overseas), Shenchi Chemical, etc. [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the LPG and propylene markets, indicating that geopolitical disturbances in the LPG market still exist and the fundamental driving force is downward, while the propylene spot price remains stable and the basis converges [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - For LPG (PG): The 2603 contract closed at 4,262 with a daily increase of 0.26% and a night - session close of 4,295 with a night - session increase of 0.77%. The trading volume was 41,631, a decrease of 20,093 from the previous day, and the open interest was 25,613, a decrease of 3,707. Similar data is presented for the 2604 and 2605 contracts [3] - For propylene (PL): The 2603 contract closed at 6,240 with a daily increase of 0.97% and a night - session close of 6,264 with a night - session increase of 0.38%. The trading volume was 7,309, an increase of 6,094 from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,917, a decrease of 1,101. Similar data is presented for the 2604 and 2605 contracts [3] 3.1.2 Spot Market - For LPG (PG): Shandong civil use price was 4,430, with a main - contract basis of 168, a decrease of 71 from the previous day. Other regions like East China, South China also have corresponding price and basis data [3] - For propylene (PL): Shandong price was 6,445, with a main - contract basis of 173, a decrease of 43 from the previous day. East and South China also have relevant data [3] 3.1.3 Industrial Chain Start - Up - PDH start - up rate was 62.66%, an increase of 1.94 from the previous week. Alkylation start - up rate was 36.85%, unchanged from the previous week, and MTBE start - up rate was 68.01%, unchanged [3] 3.1.4 LPG Shipment Volume - From the US to the world, the shipment volume was 29.6 tons on February 11, 2026, an increase of 10.7 from the previous day. To Asia it was 22.9 tons, an increase of 7.1. To China it was 9.3 tons, an increase of 9.3. Similar data is presented for shipments from the Middle East [3] 3.2 Trend Strength - LPG trend strength is 0, and propylene trend strength is 0. The trend strength ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [7] 3.3 Market Information - On February 11, 2026, the March CP paper - cargo price of propane was 538 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; butane was 529 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The April CP paper - cargo price of propane was 523 US dollars/ton, unchanged [8] - There are domestic PDH device maintenance plans and domestic LPG factory device maintenance plans, including information such as enterprise names, device names, production capacities, maintenance start and end times [8][9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the investment rating of the industry. 2. Core Views - **LPG**: In the short term, geopolitical disturbances are strong, and the fundamental driving force is downward. In the short term, the market focuses on the geopolitical situation in Iran, with strong emotional support. In the medium to long term, as the supply reduction gradually returns and the demand - side PDH is in deep loss, the driving force is downward [3][4]. - **Propylene**: The upward driving force has weakened, and attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances. Next week, with the expected return of fluctuating PDH devices, the tight - balance pattern of propylene may improve, and its trend is more driven by the cost and supply sides [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory LPG Part - **Price & Spread** - The US dollar cost of LPG maintains a strong and volatile trend, and domestic civil prices rise steadily. The freight rate has increased, the spot premium has declined, and the US Gulf - Far East arbitrage window remains open [12]. - The lowest deliverable product is East China civil LPG [15]. - **Supply** - The total domestic LPG commodity volume is 543,000 tons (+1.9%), including 232,000 tons of civil gas (+1.6%) and 169,000 tons of ether - after carbon four (+2.9%). The propane import volume has decreased by 43,000 tons compared with the previous period [63][74]. - The total US LPG shipment volume is stable month - on - month, the Canadian shipment volume is stable, and the Middle East LPG shipment volume has increased month - on - month [42][45]. - **Demand & Inventory** - The PDH operating rate has further declined slightly, and the MTBE operating rate is flat month - on - month. The LPG refinery inventory is at a neutral level compared with the same period in 2025, and there is regional differentiation in the civil gas refinery inventory. The LPG terminal imported cargo inventory continues to decrease [81][83][93][107]. - **Balance Sheet** - In the first quarter, propane is expected to remain seasonally strong. In the second quarter, the supply will return to normal, and the tight supply - demand pattern is expected to ease [119]. Propylene Part - **Price & Spread** - Geopolitical risks have intensified, costs have increased, and propylene's own supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, rising and then stabilizing. The PDH profit has weakened after a brief recovery [122]. - International/US - dollar prices have increased month - on - month, and the import window remains closed. Domestic prices were strong at the beginning of the week and gradually stabilized in the middle of the week [126][132]. - **Balance Sheet** - The overall operating rate of propylene upstream is 70.5% (-0.9%). The oil - based operating rate has increased, while the PDH and MTO operating rates have declined. Downstream varieties have more load - reduction than load - increase [142]. - The supply and demand of propylene in the national and Shandong regions are analyzed in detail, including the production, import, export, and consumption of each month from 2025 to 2026 [146][163][166]. - **Supply** - The overall operating rate of propylene upstream is 70.5% (-0.9%). The refinery/main - operating rate has further increased to 80%, the ethylene cracking operating rate is 85.1% (+3.0%), the PDH capacity utilization rate is 60.7% (-1.5%), and the MTO capacity utilization rate is 80.9% (-3.4%) [173][184][194][199]. - Some PDH and MTO devices have undergone maintenance and restart operations [198][203]. - **Demand** - The PP capacity utilization rate is 74.8% (-1.3%), the PP powder capacity utilization rate is 32.1% (+1.3%), the PO capacity utilization rate is 73.3% (+0.3%), the acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate is 69.0% (-6.2%), the acrylic acid capacity utilization rate is 84.2% (+2.6%), the n - butanol capacity utilization rate is 86.1% (-1.4%), the octanol capacity utilization rate is 91.0% (-5.0%), the phenol - acetone capacity utilization rate is 88.0% (-0.5%), and the ECH capacity utilization rate is 54.3% (-3.7%) [215][234][246][259][264][277][282][287][297]. - Some devices in each downstream industry have undergone start - stop and load - adjustment operations [219][238][250][263][276][281][286][292]. - **Downstream Inventory** - PP production enterprise inventory, PP powder inventory, and other downstream inventories have changed to varying degrees [301][303][304].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term geopolitical disturbances for LPG are relatively strong, and the demand for propylene provides strong support, keeping the spot price at a high level [1]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - For LPG (PG): - On 2026/1/28, the closing price of PG2602 was 4,338 with a daily increase of 1.10%, and the night - session closing price was 4,330 with a decrease of 0.18%. The trading volume was 738, a decrease of 161 from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,350, a decrease of 602. - PG2603 had a closing price of 4,286 with a daily increase of 0.89%, and the night - session closing price was 4,289 with an increase of 0.07%. The trading volume was 77,168, a decrease of 36,545, and the open interest was 92,829, a decrease of 2,844. - PG2604 had a closing price of 4,566 with a daily increase of 1.11%, and the night - session closing price was 4,564 with a decrease of 0.04%. The trading volume was 22,979, a decrease of 2,343, and the open interest was 66,229, an increase of 1,704 [1]. - For propylene (PL): - On 2026/1/28, the closing price of PL2602 was 6,155 with a daily increase of 0.87%, and the night - session closing price was 6,171 with an increase of 0.26%. The trading volume was 125, a decrease of 524, and the open interest was 2,204, a decrease of 1. - PL2603 had a closing price of 6,281 with a daily increase of 0.53%, and the night - session closing price was 6,294 with an increase of 0.21%. The trading volume was 22,962, an increase of 4,075, and the open interest was 9,682, a decrease of 2,478. - PL2604 had a closing price of 6,335 with a daily increase of 0.73%, and the night - session closing price was 6,372 with an increase of 0.58%. The trading volume was 10,479, a decrease of 4,386, and the open interest was 9,943, an increase of 994 [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Market - For LPG (PG): - The price of Shandong civil LPG was 4,410 with no change from the previous day, and the main - contract basis was 124, a decrease of 38. - The price of East China civil LPG was 4,401, an increase of 17, and the main - contract basis was 115, a decrease of 21. - The price of South China civil LPG was 4,850, an increase of 10, and the main - contract basis was 564, a decrease of 28. - The price of Shandong ether - after LPG was 4,370, an increase of 20, and the main - contract basis was 234, a decrease of 18. - The FEI arrival price was 4,807, an increase of 90, and the main - contract basis was 621, an increase of 52. - The price of East China imported LPG was 4,959 with no change, and the main - contract basis was 773, a decrease of 38. - The price of South China imported LPG was 4,970 with no change, and the main - contract basis was 784, a decrease of 38 [1]. - For propylene (PL): - The price of Shandong propylene was 6,400, a decrease of 5, and the main - contract basis was 119, a decrease of 38. - The price of East China propylene was 6,550, an increase of 75, and the main - contract basis was 269, an increase of 42. - The price of South China propylene was 6,275 with no change, and the main - contract basis was 94, a decrease of 33 [1]. 3.1.3 Industrial Chain Start - up - As of 2026/1/23, the PDH start - up rate was 62.25%, a decrease of 10.82 from the previous week. The alkylation start - up rate was 36.2% with no change, and the MTBE start - up rate was 68.01%, an increase of 0.44 [1]. 3.1.4 LPG Shipment Volume - From the United States on 2026/1/28: - The global shipment volume was 31.1, an increase of 22.0 from the previous day. The Asian shipment volume was 21.2, an increase of 12.1. The shipment volume to China was 0.0 with no change, to Japan was 11.6, an increase of 6.9, and to South Korea was 0.0 with no change. - From the Middle East on 2026/1/28: - The global shipment volume was 16.2, an increase of 4.7 from the previous day. The Asian shipment volume was 15.6, an increase of 4.1. The shipment volume to China was 0.0, a decrease of 4.6, to Japan was 0.0 with no change, and to South Korea was 0.0 with no change [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), and 0 represents a neutral state [5]. 3.3 Market Information - On January 28, 2026, the February CP paper - cargo price of propane was 538 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price of butane was 528 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton. The March CP paper - cargo price of propane was 525 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton [6]. - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. Some maintenance start times are from 2023, and the end times of many are to be determined [7]. - There are also domestic liquefied gas factory device maintenance plans, such as those of Rizhao (China National Offshore Oil Corporation), Shenchi Chemical, and Sinochem Quanzhou. The normal production volume, loss volume, start time, end time, and maintenance duration are provided [7].