Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that ethylene glycol (MEG) will maintain a volatile trend, with an operating range of 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton, and recommends maintaining a wait - and - see attitude. The reasons include the weak atmosphere in the commodity market, potential fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts, stable overall domestic device operation with occasional short - stops, normal downstream polyester operation, and low but increasing port inventories [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints - This week, MEG fluctuated narrowly. The main reason was the weak atmosphere in the commodity market. In the second half of the week, the MEG futures callbacked, and there was good buying at low levels. Two large - scale plants are restarting, and port inventories are increasing but still at a low level. Downstream polyester maintains normal operation, while terminal weaving orders are mediocre [5]. - Next week, cost - side geopolitical conflicts will increase market uncertainty, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely. On the supply side, short - stops of domestic plants may occur occasionally, and overall operation is expected to remain stable. On the demand side, there are few planned plant changes, and the determining factor for the turning point of filament load will shift from equity inventory to processing fees. Port inventories are expected to remain low despite the increase [5]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: This week, the trading volume was 476,600 lots, and the open interest was 148,500 lots (a decrease of 56,800 lots). The closing price of the MEG main contract on August 18 was 4346 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68 yuan/ton or 1.54% compared to August 11. The settlement price on August 18 was 4353 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan/ton or 1.16% compared to August 11 [10][12]. - **Spot Market**: The high - end spot price was 4518 yuan/ton on August 12, and the low - end was 4442 yuan/ton on August 14. From August 10 - 16, prices in Fujian, Zhangjiagang, and Dongguan increased by 5 - 10 yuan/ton. The foreign - market price was 524.7 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.9 US dollars/ton. The average basis this week was 88.40 yuan/ton, higher than last week's 78.00 yuan/ton. The domestic and foreign markets of MEG remained inverted, with a spread of 100 - 115 US dollars/ton [14]. 3. MEG Plant, Inventory, and Production Profit - **Plant Operation**: From August 12 - 19, the comprehensive operating rate of MEG was 62.98%, slightly higher than 62.81% from August 5 - 11. The operating rates of petroleum - based, coal - based, and methanol - based production were 64.03%, 61.43%, and 62.43% respectively. During the week, there were short - stops and restarts at some plants, such as the short - stop of the Shenghong plant and the restart of the Guanghui plant [18][21][23]. - **Production Profit**: Due to the continuous strengthening of thermal coal prices and the weakening of MEG spot prices, the profit of coal - based MEG production has been further compressed. The current profits of MTO, coal - based, and ethylene - based production are - 1513.88 yuan/ton, 485.39 yuan/ton, and - 112.90 US dollars/ton respectively [31][33]. - **Inventory**: As of August 14, MEG port inventory was 495,400 tons, an increase of 78,200 tons or 11.77% compared to the previous period. The supply and demand of MEG are expected to remain basically balanced from August to September, and there is room for downward adjustment of imports [37][38]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side**: The market's expectation of a US - Russia peace negotiation has put downward pressure on oil prices. The decline in crude oil and PTA prices has a negative impact on the market sentiment of polyester products [44][49]. - **Downstream Market**: The average weekly load of polyester plants was 86.97%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 57.81%. The prices of some polyester products have declined slightly. The inventory of polyester staple fiber has decreased, and the supply is still sufficient, while the demand is weak. The supply of bottle chips is stable, and the market inventory is generally abundant [48][52]. - **Weaving Market**: The shipment of grey fabrics is slow, and the number of inquiries has decreased. The operating rates of some weaving areas have increased slightly. The weekly average polyester sales rate from August 11 - 15 was estimated to be 60%. The inventory of polyester filament has decreased slightly [53][55][58].