1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1][7][9] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1][12][13] - L: Bearish consolidation [1][15][18] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1][20][23] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [1][25][28] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1][32][33] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1][36][37] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [1][40][41] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [1][45][47] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [1][50][52] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [1][5][53] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [1][5] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [1][5] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [1][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, cost fluctuations, and macro - economic impacts. Most products are expected to show a bearish or weak - oscillating trend, but some products may have short - term opportunities based on specific supply - demand and cost changes [1][7][32] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 0.47% and Brent up 1.22%, while SC had no quote due to the holiday [6] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in November, and the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, with oil prices likely to be pressured to around $60 [7] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to increase as OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. Demand is expected to be lower than supply in 2025 - 2026. US commercial crude inventory increased in the week ending October 3 [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and buy call options. Focus on the range of [470 - 485] for SC [9] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 30, the PG main contract closed at 4,295 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China showed different changes [10][11] - **Basic Logic**: The cost side is bearish as the oil price center moves down and Saudi Arabia lowers the CP contract price. Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand has some improvement [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4150 - 4250] [13] L - **Market Review**: The L01 closing price was 7,153 yuan/ton, down 0.4%. Other related prices and positions also had corresponding changes [16] - **Basic Logic**: It mainly follows cost fluctuations. The cost support weakens as crude oil prices decline slightly during the holiday. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It runs weakly in the short term due to cost factors. Wait for a pull - back to try long positions. Focus on the range of [7100 - 7250] [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closing price was 6,852 yuan/ton, down 0.7%. Other related prices and positions changed accordingly [21][22] - **Basic Logic**: It follows cost fluctuations. Crude oil prices decline slightly during the holiday, while propylene is strong. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation and upstream device changes [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices. Wait for a pull - back to try long positions. Focus on the range of [6800 - 6950] [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closing price was 4,839 yuan/ton, down 1.2%. Other related prices and positions had corresponding changes [26][27] - **Basic Logic**: The cost support weakens as crude oil and calcium carbide prices decline slightly during the holiday. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation. The low valuation limits the downside [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a pull - back to try long positions. Focus on the range of [4800 - 5000] [28] PX - **Market Review**: On September 30, the PX spot price was 6,624 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [30][31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices are slightly increasing load, while demand - side PTA maintenance is high, leading to a loose supply - demand expectation. Macroeconomic factors also put pressure on oil prices [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially stop - profit short positions, short on rebounds, and sell call options. Focus on the range of [6490 - 6600] for PX511 [33] PTA - **Market Review**: On September 30, the PTA price in East China was 4,545 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [34][35] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure may ease due to expected device maintenance. Demand has improved recently. 9 - month supply - demand was in tight balance, but it is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop - profit short positions gradually after the holiday. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4520 - 4600] for TA01 [37] MEG - **Market Review**: On September 30, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,275 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [38][39] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices slightly increase load, overseas devices change little. Terminal demand has short - term improvement but is under pressure in the future. There is an expected increase in supply after the holiday [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short positions should be gradually stopped - profit after the holiday's low - opening and rebound. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4145 - 4210] for EG01 [41] Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 30, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,290 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [44] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure remains large as domestic devices resume production and overseas device load declines. Demand has improved, and cost support is stabilizing [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of [2311 - 2351] for MA01 [47] Urea - **Market Review**: On September 30, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [48][49] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively loose as enterprises resume production. Demand is weak domestically but good for exports. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Look for long - term opportunities to go long at low prices. Focus on the range of [1640 - 1670] for UR601 [52] Natural Gas - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively sufficient, causing gas prices to decline. The increase in rig count and the need for winter gas storage have some impact on prices [5] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost side is bearish as oil prices decline. Supply - demand is loose, and the valuation is high. Hold short positions [1][5] Glass - **Basic Logic**: The spot price was firm before the holiday, and the basis was continuously repaired. Factory inventory has been decreasing for 3 weeks. Pay attention to downstream restocking during the peak season. The supply is under pressure, and the demand from the real - estate sector is weak [1][5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions on the alkali - glass spread in the short term and be bearish on rebounds in the long term [5] Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The futures market is in a high - premium structure, and industrial hedging pressures the market. The demand for heavy soda has improved, and enterprise inventory has decreased for five consecutive weeks. Supply is expected to be loose [1][5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices. Be bearish on rebounds in the long term [5]