Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - On November 11th, the prices of glass and soda ash weakened. For glass, the recent supply has remained stable overall, but production profits have been squeezed again, increasing the pressure on the market to force supply reduction. In the context of anti - involution, supply disturbance sentiment is likely to ferment. Despite the arrival of the off - season, the overall terminal demand has remained resilient, and inventories have not accumulated significantly. The current glass valuation is not high, and with the relatively strong coal prices, there is cost support. In the short term, large fluctuations in macro - sentiment cause price volatility. In the medium term, the pattern of oversupply persists, and there is significant resistance to price increases. Soda ash generally follows glass, but with relatively average supply - demand conditions, its price is under pressure [2]. 3. Market Data Summary Glass - **Futures Prices**: - For January, May, and September contracts, the closing prices are 1053, 1184, and 1261 respectively, with price drops of 16, 21, and 31, and percentage drops of 1.5%, 1.74%, and 2.4% respectively. - The price spreads between contracts: January - May is - 131, May - September is - 77, and September - January is 208. - **Spot Prices**: In the East China, national, and Northwest regions, the spot prices are 1110, 1240, and 1160 respectively. The basis for the main contract is 57, 187, and 107 respectively [1]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: - For January, May, and September contracts, the closing prices are 1215, 1292, and 1356 respectively, with price drops of 11, 8, and 8, and percentage drops of 0.9%, 0.62%, and 0.59% respectively. - The price spreads between contracts: January - May is - 77, May - September is - 64, and September - January is 141. - **Spot Prices**: In the East China and other regions, the spot prices are 1300 and 1250 respectively. The basis for the main contract is - 265, 85, and 35 respectively [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bearish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [6] Core Views of the Report - Overall, most energy and chemical products face downward pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances and oil price trends, while natural gas has some upward support due to seasonal demand [2][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market review**: On October 31, international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 0.68%, Brent up 0.62%, and SC down 0.67% [7][8] - **Basic logic**: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in Q1 2024. Global crude oil inventories are accelerating accumulation, and the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season [9][10] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold previous short positions and consider adding short positions lightly. Focus on the SC range of [455 - 470] [11] LPG - **Market review**: On October 31, the PG main contract closed at 4,301 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [14] - **Basic logic**: The price is anchored to the cost of crude oil. Geopolitical risks have eased, and the cost has declined. Supply has decreased slightly, and demand has some resilience [15] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the PG range of [4250 - 4350] [16] L - **Market review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,009 yuan/ton, up 0.3% [18] - **Basic logic**: Cost support has weakened. Supply is in a loose pattern, and demand has limited restocking motivation [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Focus on the L range of [6950 - 7100] [20] PP - **Market review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,691 yuan/ton, up 72 [24] - **Basic logic**: Spot prices have not kept up with the increase, and the basis has weakened. There is high inventory - removal pressure in the future, and oil - based cost support is insufficient [25] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Focus on the PP range of [6600 - 6800] [25] PVC - **Market review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,719 yuan/ton, up 20 [28] - **Basic logic**: Low - valuation support exists, and the loss of a single variety has expanded. Attention should be paid to whether upstream marginal devices can reduce production to ease the supply - demand surplus [29] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a high contango structure. Industries should hedge at high prices. Focus on the V range of [4600 - 4800] [29] PX - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [30] - **Basic logic**: Supply has domestic reduction and overseas increase. Demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. PXN and PX - MX are at relatively high levels, and the cost of crude oil is under pressure [30] - **Strategy recommendation**: Consider short - selling at high prices. Focus on the PX range of [6580 - 6680] [31] PTA - **Market review**: TA05 closed at 4,644 yuan/ton, TA11 at 4,536 yuan/ton, and TA01 at 4,586 yuan/ton [32] - **Basic logic**: Processing fees are low. Supply pressure is expected to ease due to potential device maintenance. Terminal demand has slightly improved, but there is an expected inventory build - up in November [33] - **Strategy recommendation**: Exit short positions at low prices and consider short - selling at high prices. Focus on the TA range of [4560 - 4650] [34] Ethylene Glycol - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [36] - **Basic logic**: Domestic and overseas devices have increased their loads. Supply pressure is expected to rise, and there is an expected inventory build - up in November. Valuation is low, but there is no upward drive [36] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and consider short - selling on rebounds. Focus on the EG range of [3980 - 4050] [37] Methanol - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [40] - **Basic logic**: High inventory suppresses spot price rebounds. Supply pressure is large, and demand is average. Cost support is weak and stable [40] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Consider going long on the 01 contract at low prices and the MA1 - 5 reverse spread. Focus on the MA range of [2110 - 2190] [42] Urea - **Market review**: UR05 closed at 1,703 yuan/ton, UR09 at 1,736 yuan/ton, and UR01 at 1,625 yuan/ton [43] - **Basic logic**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand improvement is limited. Valuation is low, and there is a risk of downward movement [44] - **Strategy recommendation**: The fundamentals are weak. Consider going long lightly in the medium - to - long term. Focus on the UR range of [1610 - 1640] [46] Natural Gas - **Market review**: On October 31, the NG main contract closed at 4.205 US dollars per million British thermal units, up 2.69% [49] - **Basic logic**: Geopolitical risks have been released, and demand has increased due to the approaching heating season. Supply is relatively sufficient [50] - **Strategy recommendation**: The cooling temperature supports the gas price, but there is upward pressure. Focus on the NG range of [4.050 - 4.250] [51] Asphalt - **Market review**: On October 31, the BU main contract closed at 3,244 yuan/ton, down 0.31% [53] - **Basic logic**: The price is affected by the decline in oil prices. Supply and demand have both decreased, and inventory has declined [54] - **Strategy recommendation**: The valuation is high, and supply is sufficient. Short positions can be held lightly. Focus on the BU range of [3250 - 3350] [55] Glass - **Market review**: FG2601 closed at 1,095 yuan/ton, up 3 [58] - **Basic logic**: There is intense capital gaming. Inventory has increased counter - seasonally, and supply is under pressure due to profitable production processes [59] - **Strategy recommendation**: Cautiously participate. Bullish in the short - term technically, bearish on rebounds in the medium - term. Focus on the FG range of [1080 - 1130] [59] Soda Ash - **Market review**: SA2601 closed at 1,209 yuan/ton, down 26 [62] - **Basic logic**: It rebounds with the black building materials sector. Inventory has slightly decreased, but it is still at a high level. Supply is expected to increase [63] - **Strategy recommendation**: Industries should sell at high prices. Hold the long position of the soda - glass spread. Focus on the SA range of [1220 - 1270] [63]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously bearish on crude oil, LPG, L, PP, ethylene glycol, methanol, urea, and natural gas [1][3][6] - Bearish consolidation on L and PP [1] - Bearish rebound on PVC, glass, and soda ash [1][6] - Cautiously bullish on PX and PTA [1][3] Core Views - The core drivers of the oil market are the supply surplus in the off - season and macro - positive factors, with the oil price center expected to decline [9]. - LPG is affected by the cost - end oil price correction and the low basis, with the price likely to correct [14]. - L and PP face cost support weakening and high inventory pressure, with bearish consolidation trends [19][24]. - PVC has low - valuation support but faces supply - demand surplus contradictions, with a bearish rebound situation [28]. - PX has short - term supply - demand improvement but limited cost - end rebound height, with opportunities for both long and short positions [30][31]. - PTA has slightly improved supply and demand, but the medium - and long - term supply is expected to be loose, with short - term rebound opportunities [33][34]. - Ethylene glycol has a low valuation but lacks upward drivers, with a short - term weakening trend [36][37]. - Methanol has high inventory pressure, but there are opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [40][42]. - Urea has a relatively loose supply, with short - term upward pressure and long - term opportunities to go long at low prices [44][46]. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded slightly, with WTI up 0.55%, Brent up 0.77%, and SC down 1.54% [8]. - **Basic Logic**: Sanctions on Russia and macro - positive factors support the oil price, but the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price center is expected to decline [9]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ may increase production in December, Indian oil imports increased in September, and US commercial crude inventories decreased last week [10]. - **Strategy**: Hold previous short positions and consider adding short positions lightly. Focus on the SC range of [455 - 470] [11]. LPG - **Market Review**: On October 29, the PG main contract closed at 4,287 yuan/ton, up 0.61% [13]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost - end oil price. The short - term geopolitical risk has eased, and the cost - end has corrected. The basis is at a low level [14]. - **Strategy**: Try short positions lightly. Focus on the PG range of [4250 - 4350] [15]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,009 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [18]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support is weakening, supply is loose, and demand replenishment power is insufficient [19]. - **Strategy**: The industry sells hedges at high prices, and short positions are preferred at high prices in the high - production cycle. Focus on the L range of [6950 - 7100] [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,691 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan [23]. - **Basic Logic**: The basis is weakening, upstream device maintenance has increased, but the demand side faces high de - stocking pressure, and oil - based cost support is insufficient [24]. - **Strategy**: The industry sells hedges at high prices, and short positions are followed by short - term cost rebounds. Focus on the PP range of [6600 - 6800] [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,719 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Low - valuation support exists, but the supply - demand surplus contradiction is prominent. Attention should be paid to whether upstream marginal devices can reduce production [28]. - **Strategy**: The industry conducts hedging at high prices, and short - term long positions can be lightly participated in. Focus on the V range of [4600 - 4800] [28]. PX - **Market Review**: The PX futures price showed an upward trend [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices have reduced their loads, demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken, and the cost - end oil price rebound is limited [30]. - **Strategy**: Try long positions lightly in the short term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices, and focus on expanding downstream processing fees. Focus on the PX range of [6620 - 6720] [31]. PTA - **Market Review**: The PTA futures price showed a slight increase [32]. - **Basic Logic**: New device production is imminent, but processing fees are low, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. Terminal demand has improved slightly but is unstable, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in November [33]. - **Strategy**: Chase long positions lightly in the short term, focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds in the medium and long term, and focus on expanding TA processing fees. Focus on the TA range of [4610 - 4680] [34]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The ethylene glycol futures price showed a decline [35]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have reduced their loads, overseas devices have increased their loads slightly, supply pressure is expected to increase, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in November. The valuation is low but lacks upward drivers [36]. - **Strategy**: Participate in short - term long positions lightly and pay attention to short - selling opportunities during rebounds. Focus on the EG range of [4060 - 4140] [37]. Methanol - **Market Review**: High inventory suppresses the spot price [40]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure is still high, demand has improved slightly, and cost support is weak and stable. Pay attention to the impact of Iranian "gas restrictions" [40]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously, focus on going long on the 01 contract at low prices, and focus on MA1 - 5 reverse spreads. Focus on the MA range of [2235 - 2285] [42]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures price showed a slight increase [43]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively loose, demand has improved slightly, inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists. Be vigilant against downward risks [44]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously, and try long positions lightly in the medium and long term. Focus on the UR range of [1635 - 1660] [46].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short term, there is a supply - demand mismatch due to strong terminal demand and continuous destocking of social inventory, pushing up prices. The cost support moves up due to rising ore prices, so prices are likely to move upwards. However, as prices rise, hedging positions on the supply side are gradually released, with lithium mica lithium extraction as the main incremental supply. In the long term, the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and capacity clearance is still awaited [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 78,500 with a rise of 1,950; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 76,300 with a rise of 2,000 [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has a price of 925 with a rise of 19; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) has a price of 1,265 with a rise of 45; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) has a price of 2,065 with a rise of 75; phosphorus lithium aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) has a price of 7,415 with a rise of 165; phosphorus lithium aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) has a price of 8,825 with a rise of 225 [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 35,440 with a rise of 470; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 157,500 with a rise of 300; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 138,200 with a rise of 1,100; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 137,350 with a rise of 400 [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,200 with a change of - 50; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract product is - 3,140 with a change of 2,210; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 680 with a change of - 60; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 840 with a change of 60 [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 130,366 with a change of - 2,292; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 33,681; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 55,275 with a change of - 2,460; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 41,410 with a change of 770; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 27,335 with a change of - 404 [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 79,394, and the profit is - 2,006; the cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 83,024, and the profit is - 7,646 [3] Industry News - Apian Capital Advisory, a UK private equity firm, is collaborating with the International Finance Corporation under the World Bank to launch a $1 - billion critical minerals, metals, and mining fund focusing on emerging markets [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the commodities in the energy and chemical sector are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", with some rated as "Bearish" or "Bearish Consolidation" [1][3][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical market is bearish, mainly due to factors such as oversupply, geopolitical tensions, and weakening demand [1][3][6] 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply surplus and geopolitical easing lead to weak oil prices. OPEC+ plans to expand production in November, increasing supply pressure. Entering the consumption off - season, US inventories are continuously accumulating [1] - **Strategy**: Partially take profit on short positions. Focus on the range of SC [430 - 440] [12] LPG - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical speculation causes a rebound, but the cost - end oil price drags down, and the upside is pressured. There are concerns about increased transportation costs, and the basis weakens [1] - **Strategy**: Use a double - option strategy. Focus on the range of PG [4200 - 4300] [17] L (PE) - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation [1] - **Main Logic**: Spot prices have not stopped falling, and the basis weakens significantly. New production capacity is put into operation, and supply remains loose. Demand is in the peak season, but restocking power is insufficient [21] - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of L [6800 - 7000] [21] PP - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation [1] - **Main Logic**: Cost support weakens, and the basis weakens. Post - holiday inventory reduction is slow, and supply - demand remains loose. There is high inventory reduction pressure in the future [26] - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of PP [6500 - 6700] [26] PVC - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation [1] - **Main Logic**: Short - term device maintenance leads to a slight reduction in social inventory, but supply is strong and demand is weak. New production capacity will be released, and there is uncertainty in export anti - dumping duties [30] - **Strategy**: Treat the short - term rebound with caution and take profit on short positions. Focus on the range of V [4600 - 4800] [30] PX - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the oil price is under pressure. The PXN spread is relatively high this year, and the short - process PX - MX spread is also high [33] - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of PX [6310 - 6400] [34] PTA - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply - side start - up load increases, and demand has a "Silver October" consumption peak expectation. The cost - end oil price drops, and the processing fee is low [37] - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of TA [4400 - 4460] [38] MEG - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Domestic devices increase production, overseas devices change little. Terminal consumption improves in the short term but is under pressure in the long term. New device production and inventory accumulation [41] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of EG [4020 - 4090] [42] Methanol - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish in the short - term, bullish in the long - term [1] - **Main Logic**: The US tariff policy is short - term bearish. Supply pressure is large, demand is improving, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support is stabilizing [46] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of MA [2280 - 2320] [48] Urea - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply is relatively loose, domestic demand is weak, and exports are relatively good. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists [51] - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are weak, but the valuation is not high. Pay attention to the Indian urea tender. Consider going long with a light position in the medium - to - long - term [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current upward trend in gold prices is supported by dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar, creating a strong bullish momentum [2] - Gold prices have effectively broken through the $4200 level, indicating a dominant bullish sentiment in the market [2] - The daily RSI indicator has entered the overbought territory (>80), suggesting a potential short-term technical pullback [2] - Key support levels to watch are $4200-$4195, with further support at $4180-$4172 if the first level fails [2] - The upward target is set at $4250, with a potential move towards $4300 if this level is surpassed [2] - The overall bullish trend remains intact as long as prices hold above the $4180 support level, amidst a weak dollar and high global uncertainty [2] Group 2: Trading Strategy for Gold - The trading strategy focuses on a bullish layout, recommending to enter long positions when prices pull back to the $4218-$4115 range [4] - The $4200 level is identified as a critical defense line for both long and short positions; a break below this level suggests exiting the market [4] - The primary focus is on the breakout of the $4250 level, as the market remains in an upward trend [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market is currently facing mixed factors, with short-term supply abundance putting pressure on prices, while declining Russian oil exports and cautious OPEC+ production increases may provide some support [5] - The technical outlook for WTI crude oil shows a clear bearish structure, with prices operating within a descending channel and moving averages indicating a bearish trend [5] - Key price levels to monitor include a potential drop below $58, which would lead to further support at $56.20, while a stabilization and breakout above $60 could signal a short-term rebound [5] - The current market is constrained by "oversupply" and "high inventory" pressures [5] Group 4: Demand Recovery and OPEC+ Monitoring - Short-term observations should focus on the demand recovery pace in Asian countries and the U.S.; continued weakness in demand may keep oil prices under pressure [7] - Mid-term trends will depend on OPEC+ meetings and whether stronger supply adjustment measures will be implemented, which could be a key variable in changing the current trend [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the energy and chemical industry in the report is "Cautiously Bearish" [1][2][3][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driver for most commodities is supply - demand imbalance, with supply often exceeding demand, leading to downward pressure on prices. Crude oil is affected by supply over - capacity and inventory changes; other products like LPG, L, PP, PVC, etc., are also influenced by factors such as cost, supply, and demand dynamics [1][2][5] 3. Summary According to Different Commodities Crude Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply over - capacity is the core driver. Entering the consumption off - season, US inventory has risen, but the absolute inventory level is not high, providing some support at the bottom. OPEC+ plans to continue expanding production in November, increasing the pressure of supply over - capacity and downward pressure on oil prices. Key focus is on the marginal change in crude oil production [1] - **Strategy**: Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC between [430 - 450] [1][10] LPG - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: The cost side is weak as the oil price supply is in surplus and Saudi Arabia has lowered the CP contract price. The LPG valuation has been repaired, and the basis of the main contract has returned to normal. The supply side is relatively sufficient, and the factory inventory has increased. The downstream chemical demand has recovered, showing strong demand resilience [1] - **Strategy**: Follow the oil price trend. Hold short positions. Consider selling put options. Pay attention to the range of PG between [4100 - 4200] [1][14] L - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish trend continues [1] - **Main Logic**: Futures and spot prices have fallen together, the basis has weakened, and the futures price has reached a new low for the year. New LD and other devices are put into production, and the supply pattern remains loose in the fourth - quarter seasonal upturn. Although the demand peak season has arrived, the restocking motivation is insufficient. The oil price center has moved down, and the cost support is insufficient [1] - **Strategy**: Industries should hedge at high prices. The futures price will continue to seek the bottom. Pay attention to the range of L between [6800 - 7000] [1][19] PP - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish trend continues [1] - **Main Logic**: Futures and spot prices continue to seek the bottom, and the futures price has returned to a premium structure. After the holiday, the commercial inventory has increased, slightly exceeding the seasonal characteristics, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. With the end of the "Silver October" and the seasonal increase in upstream production in the fourth quarter, there is high pressure to reduce inventory in the future. PDH profit has been significantly repaired. Pay attention to whether the cost support of propane can strengthen [1] - **Strategy**: Industries should hedge at high prices. The futures price will continue to seek the bottom. Pay attention to the range of PP between [6500 - 6700] [1][24] PVC - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish trend continues [1] - **Main Logic**: The Formosa Plastics' quotation in November has been lowered, and the main contract has broken through the support level and reached a new low for the year. After the holiday, the inventory of the upstream and mid - stream has increased more than expected, and the fundamental situation remains loose. Industrial hedging has put pressure on the price, and there is still an expectation of further inventory accumulation in the future. However, the absolute price is undervalued, and the room for further decline in the spot price is limited under high pre - sales [1] - **Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the price will continue to explore the bottom weakly. Be cautious about short - selling due to the low - valued absolute price [1][28] PX - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: The supply side has slightly increased the load of domestic and overseas devices, and the demand side has seen a slight increase in PTA start - up. The supply - demand is in a tight balance but is expected to be loose. Since this year, PXN has been at a relatively high level, and PX - MX has been on the high side. Macroscopically, crude oil is under pressure, and naphtha is weakening [1] - **Strategy**: The valuation is not high. Close short positions at low prices and pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices. Pay attention to the range of PX601 between [6260 - 6370] [1][32][33] PTA - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Main Logic**: The supply - side start - up load has increased. There is an expectation of a "Silver October" consumption peak season on the demand side, and the terminal orders have slightly improved. The supply - demand was in a tight balance in September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter. In the short term, PTA follows the cost fluctuations. However, the processing fee is not high, and the valuation is low [2] - **Strategy**: The valuation and processing fee are not high. Close short positions at low prices. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices in the term C structure. Pay attention to the range of TA01 between [4380 - 4460] [2][36][37] MEG - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Main Logic**: Domestic devices have increased their load, and overseas devices have changed little. Terminal consumption has improved in the short term but is expected to be under pressure. After the holiday, the supply is expected to increase due to new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices. MEG inventory has slightly increased. Recently, it follows the cost fluctuations and is oscillating weakly [2] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG01 between [4010 - 4070] [2][40][41] Methanol - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish, but pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices for the 01 contract [2] - **Main Logic**: Due to Sino - US trade frictions, the US tariff policy is short - term negative. The start - up load of domestic and overseas methanol devices has rebounded, and the number of device maintenance has increased recently. The import profit has slightly improved, and the expected arrival volume in October is about 1.7 million tons, so the overall supply pressure remains high. The demand side has improved, but the traditional downstream profit is relatively low, and the comprehensive weighted start - up load is weak. The social inventory has increased again. The cost support is stable [2] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully and pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices for the 01 contract. Pay attention to the range of MA01 between [2265 - 2305] [2][45][47] Urea - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish, but consider long - position opportunities at low prices in the long term [2] - **Main Logic**: The urea supply is relatively loose, and the daily production is expected to remain around 200,000 tons in the first half of October. The demand side is still cold domestically and hot overseas. The domestic industrial and agricultural demand is generally weak, but fertilizer exports are relatively good. The inventory has continued to accumulate and is still at a high level in the past five years. The cost side has some support [2] - **Strategy**: The fundamentals remain weak, but the urea valuation is not high. Consider light - position long - term long - position opportunities at low prices. Pay attention to the range of UR601 between [1590 - 1620] [2][50][52] Natural Gas - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [5] - **Main Logic**: Supply is sufficient, leading to a decline in gas prices. On October 10th, the US launched a new tariff war, increasing macro - risks, and trade policies are negative for energy prices. EIA data shows that as of the week ending October 3rd, the number of US natural gas rigs increased by 1 to 118. The cooling temperature increases combustion demand and gas storage for winter, providing some support for gas prices [5] Asphalt - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish [5] - **Main Logic**: The cost side, crude oil, has weakened, the demand side has decreased due to weather disturbances, and the supply - side pressure has increased, putting pressure on asphalt prices. The overall supply - demand of asphalt is loose, with the production growth rate significantly higher than the demand growth rate. The demand in the north has decreased significantly due to rain. The current cracking spread and BU - FU spread are at high levels, indicating over - valuation [5] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [5] Glass - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish trend continues [5] - **Main Logic**: Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is insufficient, both futures and spot prices have fallen, and the basis has remained stable. There is no short - term macro - policy drive in China, and the building materials sector has declined together. After the holiday, the factory inventory has increased, and deep - processing orders remain at a low level compared to the same period. Pay attention to the downstream restocking strength during the peak season. The daily melting volume is 161,300 tons, and both coal - fired and petroleum - coke processes are profitable, so it is unlikely that enterprises will unexpectedly shut down for cold repair, resulting in supply pressure [5] - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern remains loose. Short - sell based on the 5 - day moving average in the short term [5] Soda Ash - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish trend continues [5] - **Main Logic**: The number of warehouse receipt forecasts has increased, both futures and spot prices have fallen, and the basis has remained stable. After the holiday, the factory inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks, and the supply pattern remains loose. Most of the demand side continues with just - in - time purchases. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic + float glass is 250,000 tons. Some devices such as Zhongyuan Chemical and Tianjin Alkali Plant are under maintenance, and the production is expected to decline slightly [5] - **Strategy**: Industries should hedge at high prices. Short - sell on rebounds in the medium - to - long term. Hold long positions in the spread between soda ash and glass [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Bearish [2] - PTA: Bearish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish MTO [4] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [6] 2. Report's Core Views - The supply of most energy and chemical products is expected to be in a relatively loose state, and under the influence of macro - factors such as US tariff policies and the supply - demand relationship, most product prices are under downward pressure. Some products may have short - term rebounds or limited decline space due to factors such as low valuations and seasonal demand [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On October 10, international oil prices fell significantly. WTI dropped 4.24%, Brent dropped 3.82%, and SC dropped 0.53% [7] - **Basic Logic**: Trump's action released macro - risks, and the oil price rebounded after a decline. The core driving factor is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price is likely to be suppressed below $60 [8] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC + plans to increase production in November. US oil rigs decreased, and Russian exports from the Baltic Sea accounted for 41% of its seaborne exports. Global oil supply is expected to exceed demand in 2025 - 2026. US commercial crude inventories increased, gasoline and distillate inventories decreased, and strategic crude reserves increased [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is gradually surplus, and pay attention to the shale oil break - even point around $60. In the short - term, the trend is still weak. Hold short positions and buy call options. Pay attention to the range of [435 - 455] for SC [10] LPG - **Market Review**: On October 10, the PG main contract closed at 4063 yuan/ton, down 0.37% [12] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price center moved down, and Saudi Arabia lowered the CP contract price, putting pressure on the upper side of LPG [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the supply of upstream crude oil is greater than demand, and LPG mainly follows the oil price. In the short - term, the trend is weak. Hold short positions and pay attention to the range of [4000 - 4100] for PG [14] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7037 yuan/ton (- 40) [18] - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, it fluctuates weakly following the cost. The supply is in a loose pattern, and although the absolute price is undervalued, the upward driving force is insufficient [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support level below, and the range is [6850 - 7050] [19] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closed at 6722 yuan/ton (- 23) [23] - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, it runs weakly following the cost. After the holiday, the inventory accumulated, and the supply - demand pattern is loose, with high destocking pressure [24] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices, and pay attention to the support level below, with the range of [6600 - 6800] [24] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closed at 4735 yuan/ton (- 34) [27] - **Basic Logic**: The cost support weakens, and after the holiday, the upstream and mid - stream inventory accumulated. The supply - demand pattern is loose, but the decline space of the spot is limited due to high pre - sales [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support level below, and the range is [4600 - 4800] [28] PX - **Market Review**: On October 10, the PX spot was 6618 (- 7) yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6504 (- 82) yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices are slightly increasing the load, and the demand - side PTA start - up is slightly rising. The supply - demand is in a tight balance but is expected to be loose. Affected by the US tariff policy, the overnight crude oil dropped significantly [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to make up for the decline at the opening. Close short positions at low prices, sell call options, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices later. The range for PX511 is [6380 - 6510] [33] PTA - **Market Review**: On October 10, the PTA in East China was 4485 (- 15) yuan/ton, and the TA01 closed at 4534 (- 50) yuan/ton [35] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side start - up load increases, and the demand - side has the expectation of the "Silver October" consumption season. The supply - demand in September is in a tight balance and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter. In the short - term, it follows the cost fluctuation [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to make up for the decline at the opening. Close short positions at low prices, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices later. The range for TA01 is [4450 - 4535] [37] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Review**: On October 10, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4190 (- 24) yuan/ton, and the EG01 closed at 4185 (- 50) yuan/ton [39] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices are increasing the load, overseas devices change little. The terminal demand is slightly improved, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. Affected by the US tariff policy, the international crude oil price dropped [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to make up for the decline and reach the bottom at the opening. Close short positions at low prices, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices later. The range for EG01 is [4050 - 4135] [41] Methanol - **Market Review**: On October 10, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2245 (+ 20) yuan/ton, and the main 01 contract closed at 2307 (+ 17) yuan/ton [44] - **Basic Logic**: Affected by the US tariff policy, the supply pressure is large, the demand is slightly improved, the social inventory accumulates again, and the cost support stabilizes [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to make up for the decline at the opening. Gradually close short positions, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 01 contract at low prices. The range for MA01 is [2260 - 2340] [47] Urea - **Market Review**: On October 10, the small - particle urea spot in Shandong was 1540 (- 10) yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1597 (- 12) yuan/ton [49] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak at home and strong abroad, the inventory accumulates, and the cost has some support [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The urea price fluctuates weakly. Hold short positions, but pay attention to the opportunity of lightly going long at low prices in the long - term. The range for UR601 is [1550 - 1590] [52] Natural Gas - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish. The macro - risk rises, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the gas price drops, but the demand for winter gas storage provides some support [6] Asphalt - **Core View**: Bearish. The cost - end oil price weakens, the supply - demand is loose, and the valuation is high [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [6] Glass - **Core View**: Bearish continuation. Some production lines are ignited, the supply pressure increases, and the downstream replenishment in the peak season needs attention [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close the short position of the alkali - glass spread, and it is bearish in the medium - to - long - term [6] Soda Ash - **Core View**: Bearish continuation. After the holiday, the inventory in the factory increases, the supply is expected to be loose, and the industry hedges at high prices [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry hedges at high prices, and it is bearish in the medium - to - long - term [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [3] - Ethylene glycol (MEG): Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [3] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [5] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [5] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [5] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [5] 2. Report's Core Views - The core driver of the energy and chemical industry is the supply - demand imbalance, with supply often exceeding demand in the off - season, leading to downward pressure on prices. For most products, there are short - term trading opportunities based on cost fluctuations, and long - term trends are affected by factors such as new capacity, inventory, and policy [1][7][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude oil - **Market performance**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 0.47%, Brent up 1.22%, and SC with no quote due to the holiday [6]. - **Basic logic**: On October 5th, OPEC+ planned to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The core driver is off - season supply surplus, and oil prices are likely to be pressured to around $60 [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to increase, while EIA forecasts show global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025 - 2026. US commercial crude oil inventory rose in the week ending October 3rd [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions and buy call options. Focus on the range of [470 - 485] for SC [9]. LPG - **Market performance**: On October 9th, the PG main contract closed at 4,078 yuan/ton, down 5.05% [11]. - **Basic logic**: The cost side is pressured by the decline in oil prices and the reduction of Saudi CP contract prices. Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand in some sectors has decreased [12]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4150 - 4250] for PG [13]. L - **Market performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,077 yuan/ton, down 1.1% [16]. - **Basic logic**: It follows cost fluctuations, with weakening cost support. After the holiday, inventory increased, and the supply - demand pattern is strong on both sides but with limited upward drive [18]. - **Strategy**: It runs weakly in the short term. Focus on the lower support level and wait for dips to test long positions. Focus on the range of [7000 - 7150] [18]. PP - **Market performance**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,745 yuan/ton, down 1.6% [21]. - **Basic logic**: Cost factors such as crude oil and propane are weak. After - holiday inventory increased, and the supply - demand pattern is loose with high de - stocking pressure [23]. - **Strategy**: The industry can hedge at high prices. Focus on the lower support level and wait for dips to test long positions. Focus on the range of [6700 - 6800] [23]. PVC - **Market performance**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,839 yuan/ton, down 1.4% [25]. - **Basic logic**: The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, and inventory has increased significantly after the holiday. The supply - demand pattern is loose, but the decline in spot prices is limited due to low valuation [27]. - **Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand pattern remains loose. Focus on the lower support level and conduct range operations. Focus on the range of [4700 - 4850] [27]. PX - **Market performance**: On September 30th, the PX spot price was 6,624 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton [30]. - **Basic logic**: Supply has slightly increased, while demand is expected to weaken due to PTA maintenance. Macro factors such as high US crude oil inventory and OPEC+ production increase put pressure on oil prices, and PX is expected to be weak [31]. - **Strategy**: Partially close short positions. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds and sell call options. Focus on the range of [6520 - 6630] for PX511 [32]. PTA - **Market performance**: On September 30th, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,545 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [34]. - **Basic logic**: Supply pressure is expected to ease due to increased maintenance, and demand has improved recently. However, the cost side is pressured by oil prices, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [34]. - **Strategy**: Gradually close short positions. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4530 - 4610] for TA01 [35]. MEG - **Market performance**: On September 30th, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,275 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [37]. - **Basic logic**: Domestic plants have slightly increased production, and overseas plants have changed little. Terminal demand has improved, but new capacity and supply recovery may lead to inventory accumulation in the future. It follows cost fluctuations and is expected to be weak [38]. - **Strategy**: Gradually close short positions. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4125 - 4185] for EG01 [39]. Methanol - **Market performance**: On September 30th, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,290 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic logic**: Supply pressure remains high as maintenance plants resume production. Demand has improved, especially in the MTO sector. Social inventory is decreasing, and cost support is stabilizing [43]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 01 contract. Focus on the range of [2280 - 2320] for MA01 [45]. Urea - **Market performance**: On September 30th, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton [47]. - **Basic logic**: Supply is relatively loose as plants resume production. Domestic demand is weak, but fertilizer exports are relatively good. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists [48]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously. Look for opportunities to go long on dips in the long term [3]. Natural gas - **Market performance**: As of October 3rd, the number of US natural gas rigs increased by 1 to 118 [5]. - **Basic logic**: Supply is relatively sufficient, but the increase in combustion demand with the cooling weather and winter gas storage provide some support for gas prices [5]. - **Strategy**: Cautiously bearish [5]. Asphalt - **Market performance**: Not specifically mentioned in the given text. - **Basic logic**: The cost side is pressured by the increase in crude oil supply surplus, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. Valuation is high [5]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [5]. Glass - **Market performance**: Some regional spot prices have risen, and factory inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks [5]. - **Basic logic**: Supply is under pressure as daily melting volume remains high, and demand from the real - estate sector is weak. Focus on the downstream restocking during the peak season [5]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the alkali - glass spread in the short term and be bearish on rebounds in the long term [5]. Soda ash - **Market performance**: Spot prices have risen slightly, and the basis has strengthened [5]. - **Basic logic**: Supply is expected to be loose as summer maintenance ends and plants resume production. Demand is mostly for rigid needs, and enterprise inventory has decreased for five consecutive weeks [5]. - **Strategy**: The industry can hedge at high prices and be bearish on rebounds in the long term [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1][7][9] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1][12][13] - L: Bearish consolidation [1][15][18] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1][20][23] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [1][25][28] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1][32][33] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1][36][37] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [1][40][41] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [1][45][47] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [1][50][52] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [1][5][53] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [1][5] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [1][5] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [1][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, cost fluctuations, and macro - economic impacts. Most products are expected to show a bearish or weak - oscillating trend, but some products may have short - term opportunities based on specific supply - demand and cost changes [1][7][32] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 0.47% and Brent up 1.22%, while SC had no quote due to the holiday [6] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in November, and the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, with oil prices likely to be pressured to around $60 [7] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to increase as OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. Demand is expected to be lower than supply in 2025 - 2026. US commercial crude inventory increased in the week ending October 3 [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and buy call options. Focus on the range of [470 - 485] for SC [9] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 30, the PG main contract closed at 4,295 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China showed different changes [10][11] - **Basic Logic**: The cost side is bearish as the oil price center moves down and Saudi Arabia lowers the CP contract price. Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand has some improvement [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4150 - 4250] [13] L - **Market Review**: The L01 closing price was 7,153 yuan/ton, down 0.4%. Other related prices and positions also had corresponding changes [16] - **Basic Logic**: It mainly follows cost fluctuations. The cost support weakens as crude oil prices decline slightly during the holiday. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It runs weakly in the short term due to cost factors. Wait for a pull - back to try long positions. Focus on the range of [7100 - 7250] [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closing price was 6,852 yuan/ton, down 0.7%. Other related prices and positions changed accordingly [21][22] - **Basic Logic**: It follows cost fluctuations. Crude oil prices decline slightly during the holiday, while propylene is strong. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation and upstream device changes [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices. Wait for a pull - back to try long positions. Focus on the range of [6800 - 6950] [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closing price was 4,839 yuan/ton, down 1.2%. Other related prices and positions had corresponding changes [26][27] - **Basic Logic**: The cost support weakens as crude oil and calcium carbide prices decline slightly during the holiday. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation. The low valuation limits the downside [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a pull - back to try long positions. Focus on the range of [4800 - 5000] [28] PX - **Market Review**: On September 30, the PX spot price was 6,624 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [30][31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices are slightly increasing load, while demand - side PTA maintenance is high, leading to a loose supply - demand expectation. Macroeconomic factors also put pressure on oil prices [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially stop - profit short positions, short on rebounds, and sell call options. Focus on the range of [6490 - 6600] for PX511 [33] PTA - **Market Review**: On September 30, the PTA price in East China was 4,545 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [34][35] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure may ease due to expected device maintenance. Demand has improved recently. 9 - month supply - demand was in tight balance, but it is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop - profit short positions gradually after the holiday. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4520 - 4600] for TA01 [37] MEG - **Market Review**: On September 30, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,275 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [38][39] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices slightly increase load, overseas devices change little. Terminal demand has short - term improvement but is under pressure in the future. There is an expected increase in supply after the holiday [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short positions should be gradually stopped - profit after the holiday's low - opening and rebound. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4145 - 4210] for EG01 [41] Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 30, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,290 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [44] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure remains large as domestic devices resume production and overseas device load declines. Demand has improved, and cost support is stabilizing [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of [2311 - 2351] for MA01 [47] Urea - **Market Review**: On September 30, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [48][49] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively loose as enterprises resume production. Demand is weak domestically but good for exports. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Look for long - term opportunities to go long at low prices. Focus on the range of [1640 - 1670] for UR601 [52] Natural Gas - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively sufficient, causing gas prices to decline. The increase in rig count and the need for winter gas storage have some impact on prices [5] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost side is bearish as oil prices decline. Supply - demand is loose, and the valuation is high. Hold short positions [1][5] Glass - **Basic Logic**: The spot price was firm before the holiday, and the basis was continuously repaired. Factory inventory has been decreasing for 3 weeks. Pay attention to downstream restocking during the peak season. The supply is under pressure, and the demand from the real - estate sector is weak [1][5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions on the alkali - glass spread in the short term and be bearish on rebounds in the long term [5] Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The futures market is in a high - premium structure, and industrial hedging pressures the market. The demand for heavy soda has improved, and enterprise inventory has decreased for five consecutive weeks. Supply is expected to be loose [1][5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices. Be bearish on rebounds in the long term [5]