原油升至四个月高点，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁将再次打击伊朗，敦促德黑兰进行磋商以达成核协 议。 "希望伊朗能尽快'回到谈判桌前'，磋商达成一项公平公正的协议，"特朗普在Truth Social上发帖称，并 表示，跟去年那次相比，"下一次打击将严重得多！" 伊朗原油供应面临的潜在风险已经推升了油价，推动原油期货年初表现强劲，本月涨幅超过10%，尽管 市场预测将出现供应过剩。这也使得看涨期权的成本相对于看跌期权维持高位。 特朗普周三还表示，他下令派往中东的美国舰艇舰队规模大于派往委内瑞拉的舰队。 "随着2025年下半年盛行的供给过剩叙事逐步减弱，市场情绪似乎正在逐渐转向更为积极，"渣打银行分 析师Emily Ashford等人在报告中写道，"我们预计市场波动性将有所上升，供需风险也将日益受到关 注。" 现货方面，一份政府报告显示，美国原油库存上周下降230万桶，降幅明显高于一份备受关注的行业报 告所预测的水平。但成品油库存的增加抵消了这一利好数据，其中汽油库存升至2020年以来最高。 WTI 3月期货价格上涨1.3%，结算价报每桶63.21美元； 布伦特3月期货结算价上涨1.2%，报每桶68.40美元。 新浪合 ...

中国经济这些年表面上看风光无限，GDP数字蹭蹭往上窜，可老百姓的钱包却越来越瘪。不少人抱怨消费拉不动，是因为大家没钱花，其实这话说对了一 半，深挖下去，问题出在产能堆得像山一样高，东西太多卖不出去，却没人愿意直面这个现实。 说起产能饱和，得从地方政府的玩法说起。中国经济过去几十年靠投资和出口拉动，地方政府之间像打比赛一样，比谁的GDP涨得快。最直接的招数就是上 大项目，建工厂，优惠政策一大堆，土地便宜，税收减免，配套设施齐全。 结果呢？同一个行业到处开花，比如光伏、新能源车，沿海到内陆，产业园一个接一个冒出来。供给端像打了鸡血，产能噌噌上涨，可市场需求没跟上，东 西卖不出去，企业只好打价格战，利润薄得像纸。 数据显示，2023年工业产能利用率在75%左右，有些行业更低，这意味着四分之一的产能闲着没事干。企业主一看不对劲，还得继续投钱抢份额，银行贷款 流水般进来，形成恶性循环。 老百姓手里钱有限，基本开支占大头，哪有余力买那些多出来的货？这不是缺钱那么简单，而是整个经济结构偏向生产端，消费端被挤到角落里去了。 工厂天天加班，仓库塞满货，可市场那边冷冷清清，这不就是典型的供给过剩吗？地方上还热衷于建厂拉投资，因为 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 □业硅数据日报 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2 国贸期货研究院 从业资格号:F03123927 投资咨询号:Z0023460 2026/01/27 陈宇森 数据来源: SMM. 百川盈孚,Wind,广期所,公开新闻整理 涨跌幅(%) 持仓量 合约 收盘价 421#-通氧553价差 - 不通氧553#硅(华东)-平均价 江西新纺高科永修年产137500吨有机硅新材料项目备案。11月14日、江西省投资项目在线审批监管平台公布了江西新纺高科永修年产 137500吨有机硅新材料项目的备案信息。 | F 分 | | | --- | --- | | H 발 | 供给端，西北大厂有传闻因寒流问题矿石运输受制计划停炉。需求端，多晶硅、有机硅需求收缩趋势明显。整体看，供给端的短期祝 动与需求端的趋势性收缩。或增加库存的去化,但短期内难以扭转供给过剩的格局,价格预计震荡运行 | | 双 点 | | | | 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，国贸期货力灾准确可靠。但不对上达信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个 人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "shockingly weak in the short term" [1] Core View of the Report - Despite short - term support from news and a slight recovery in rigid demand, due to the intensifying contradiction of supply surplus in the industry, the recommended strategy is to go short on rebounds. Future attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [4] Summary According to the Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The main soda ash contract opened lower and closed higher, with slightly stronger intraday fluctuations. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands showed a short - term shockingly weak signal. The trading volume decreased by 28,783 lots and the open interest decreased by 38,955 lots compared to the previous day. The intraday high was 1215, the low was 1186, and the closing price was 1192, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: It was running stably. Enterprise equipment was adjusted with production declines at Jiangsu Jingshen and short - term shutdown at Lianyungang Alkali Industry, leading to a narrow decline in overall output. Downstream demand was average, with customers purchasing on - demand at low prices. There was a lack of substantial support in the short - term market, and prices were adjusted stably [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 58 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,700 tons or 2.88%. Light soda ash production was 361,500 tons, up 12,400 tons month - on - month; heavy soda ash production was 413,800 tons, up 9,300 tons month - on - month. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.82%, up 2.43% from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 89.95%, down 0.46% month - on - month; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 78.88%, up 4.77% month - on - month. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of over one million tons was 89.47%, up 1.32% month - on - month [2] - **Inventory**: As of January 19, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,544,200 tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons or 1.96% from the previous Thursday. Light soda ash inventory was 822,600 tons, down 14,400 tons month - on - month; heavy soda ash inventory was 721,600 tons, down 16,400 tons month - on - month [2] - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 773,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.20%. The overall shipment rate was 99.70%, up 21.52 percentage points month - on - month. Downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash demand was relatively stable, while the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened due to the cold repair of glass production lines [2][3] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information, the theoretical profit of the co - production method (double - ton) was - 44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.3 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 66.46%. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, while the price of thermal coal increased, leading to higher costs [3] Main Logic Summary - The current high capacity utilization rate of soda ash and the gradual release of new capacity have led to a continuous increase in overall production. The slowdown of short - term glass cold - repair has slightly restored the rigid demand for soda ash. With continuous losses and the boost of last week's news, there is some short - term support. However, considering the intensifying supply - surplus contradiction in the industry, the strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PP**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PVC**: Oscillating bullish [1] - **PX/PTA**: Bullish [2] - **MEG (Ethylene Glycol)**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Methanol**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Urea**: Cautiously bullish [4] - **Natural Gas**: Bearish rebound [7] - **Asphalt**: Bearish rebound [7] - **Glass**: Bearish rebound [7] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish rebound [7] 2. Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Supply surplus dominates, geopolitical factors provide short - term support, but long - term pressure exists due to off - season supply surplus and OPEC+ expansion [1][8][10] - **LPG**: Follows the decline in oil price, with supply and demand showing some resilience [1][13] - **L**: Short - term market sentiment drives, supply is sufficient, and there is de - stocking pressure [1][18] - **PP**: Maintenance intensity increases, short - term supply pressure eases, and focus on PDH device dynamics [1][21] - **PVC**: Cost support is expected to strengthen, short - term bullish, focus on inventory changes [1][25] - **PX/PTA**: Supply - demand pattern is good, cost - driven, pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks [2][29] - **MEG**: Expectations are weak, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [2][32] - **Methanol**: Supply - demand expectations improve, focus on port de - stocking speed [3][35] - **Urea**: Cost support and export window not closed, look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [4][40] - **Natural Gas**: Short - term rebound due to accident, supply is abundant, and price is under pressure [7][45] - **Asphalt**: Pay attention to raw material imports, price has compression space but with increasing support [7][48] - **Glass**: Cold repair expectations support, low - level rebound [7][53] - **Soda Ash**: Demand weakens, returns to weakness [7][57] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fell, WTI dropped 2.00%, Brent dropped 1.22%, and SC dropped 0.59% [8][9] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical factors cannot change the supply surplus situation. Core driver is off - season supply surplus, and inventory is accumulating [10][11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, buy call options for risk control. Focus on SC in the range of [410 - 420] [12] LPG - **Market Review**: On January 7, the PG main contract closed at 4229 yuan/ton, up 0.81% [15] - **Basic Logic**: Saudi Arabia raised the CP contract price, short - term boost, long - term follows oil price. Supply and demand show some resilience [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, focus on PG in the range of [4150 - 4250] [17] L - **Market Review**: L05 contract price increased, with changes in basis and spreads [18] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term expectations drive the market, supply is sufficient, and there is de - stocking pressure [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of [6500 - 6750] [20] PP - **Market Review**: PP05 contract price increased, with changes in basis and spreads [22] - **Basic Logic**: Maintenance intensity increases, short - term supply pressure eases, and focus on PDH device dynamics [24] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of [6400 - 6550] [24] PVC - **Market Review**: V05 contract price increased, with changes in basis and spreads [26] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support is expected to strengthen, short - term bullish, focus on inventory changes [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of [4800 - 5000] [28] PTA - **Market Review**: TA05 contract price and related data changes [29] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand pattern is good, cost - driven, short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and there is inventory accumulation expectation in January [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for buying opportunities on pullbacks for the 05 contract, focus on TA05 in the range of [5050 - 5185] [31] MEG - **Market Review**: EG05 contract price and related data changes [32] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic device load increases, demand is good but expectations are weak, port inventory rises, and it lacks upward drivers [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, focus on EG05 in the range of [3820 - 3910] [34] Methanol - **Market Review**: Main contract price and related data changes [37] - **Basic Logic**: Supply and demand are slightly loose, but the downside is limited. Pay attention to port de - stocking speed [37][38] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for buying opportunities on pullbacks for the 05 contract, focus on MA05 in the range of [2220 - 2290] [39] Urea - **Market Review**: Urea main contract price and related data changes [43] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, demand is weak, and the export window is not closed [42][43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for buying opportunities on pullbacks for the 05 contract, focus on UR05 in the range of [1780 - 1810] [44] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: NG main contract price and related data changes [45][46] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term rebound due to accident, supply is abundant, and price is under pressure [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on NG in the range of [3.409 - 3.695] [47] Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU main contract price and related data changes [49][50] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors cause raw material shortage expectations, supply is decreasing, demand has a small increase, and inventory is rising [51] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short positions should prevent risks, focus on BU in the range of [3100 - 3200] [52] Glass - **Market Review**: FG05 contract price and related data changes [54][55] - **Basic Logic**: Cold repair expectations support, supply - demand is weak, and focus on supply reduction [56] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on FG in the range of [1100 - 1150] [56] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: SA05 contract price and related data changes [58][59] - **Basic Logic**: Demand is weak, supply is loose in the long - term, and cold repair expectations of float glass increase [60] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on SA in the range of [1200 - 1250] [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautious bearish outlook on crude oil, natural gas [2][7] - Short - term bearish rebound expected in LPG, L, PP, PVC, asphalt, glass, soda ash [2][7] - Suggests callback buying opportunities for PTA, methanol, urea [31][37][41] - Recommends rebound short - selling for MEG [34] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices will oscillate in a range due to geopolitical uncertainties and supply surplus [2] - LPG prices will strengthen in the short - term due to cost - side support but trend downwards in the long - term [2] - PTA offers callback buying opportunities as its short - term supply - demand balance is tight [31] - MEG is expected to accumulate inventory, and investors should look for rebound short - selling opportunities [34] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices slightly declined, with WTI down 0.22%, Brent down 0.26%, and SC up 0.69% [10] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors in South America may boost prices in the short - term, but supply surplus in the off - season exerts downward pressure [11] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is affected by US interception of Venezuelan oil tankers, and demand in Japan increased in November. US inventories rose in the week ending December 19 [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the SC range of [430 - 440] [13] LPG - **Market Performance**: On December 30, the PG main contract closed at 4092 yuan/ton, up 0.52% [16] - **Basic Logic**: Saudi's CP contract price increase boosts prices in the short - term, and supply and demand show certain resilience [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the PG range of [4000 - 4100] [18] L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 6461 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [20] - **Basic Logic**: It follows market sentiment in the short - term, with weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions before the holiday and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the L range of [6350 - 6500] [22] PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 6321 yuan/ton, up 0.7% [24] - **Basic Logic**: Cost strengthens in January, and the industry chain faces high inventory - reduction pressure [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions before the holiday and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the PP range of [6250 - 6400] [26] PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 4810 yuan/ton, up 0.7% [28] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support strengthens, but high inventory restricts the rebound space [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take partial profit on long positions, wait for inventory reduction for long - term long positions, and conduct hedging for industrial customers. Focus on the V range of [4700 - 4900] [30] PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 5280 yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is tight in the short - term, but there is a risk of negative feedback from the demand side [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for TA05 in the range of [5080 - 5190] [33] MEG - **Market Performance**: EG05 closed at 3686 yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic production capacity increases, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is expected to accumulate [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions and look for rebound short - selling opportunities for EG05 in the range of [3780 - 3880] [36] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned [39] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure exists, demand is slightly weak, and cost support is weak [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for MA05 in the range of [2210 - 2250] [40] Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1697 yuan/ton [41] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, but the arbitrage window between domestic and overseas markets remains open [42] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for UR05 in the range of [1725 - 1755] [44] LNG - **Market Performance**: On December 29, the NG main contract closed at 4.687 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 7.35% [46] - **Basic Logic**: Demand support weakens, and supply is relatively abundant [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the NG range of [3.727 - 4.160] [47] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On December 30, the BU main contract closed at 3038 yuan/ton, up 1.00% [49] - **Basic Logic**: It is mainly affected by crude oil prices, and supply and demand are relatively loose [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions. Focus on the BU range of [3000 - 3100] [51] Glass - **Market Performance**: FG05 closed at 1087 yuan/ton, up 3.4% [53] - **Basic Logic**: Cold - repair expectations support prices, and supply and demand are weak [55] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long in the short - term and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities in the long - term. Focus on the FG range of [1070 - 1120] [55] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: SA05 closed at 1213 yuan/ton, up 2.7% [57] - **Basic Logic**: It rebounds following glass prices, with stable supply and weak demand [59] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the SA range of [1200 - 1240] [59]

Gold Market - The recent Christmas holiday in Europe and the US has led to a quieter news environment for gold [2] - The gold bull market this year is driven by multiple favorable factors, including global central bank purchases disrupting supply-demand balance, a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy towards easing, and concerns over the US dollar's credibility due to Trump's trade policies and rising national debt [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, concerns over US dollar credibility and sovereign debt are expected to persist, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions, suggesting that the gold bull market may continue [2] - Analyst Chen Yu from Bailihau Special Research believes that with lower interest rates and a weaker dollar, long-term support for gold prices remains unchanged, although after two years of a bull market, prices are likely to oscillate between consolidation and continuation [2] - On the technical front, recent price action shows a strong upward trend, with support found at the 20-day moving average [2] Oil Market - The oil market has been under pressure this year due to oversupply, leading to weak price performance [3] - Future prospects indicate that expanded sanctions on Russian oil companies by the US and Europe may create obstacles for buyers, providing some support for oil prices despite no significant decline in Russian oil output [3] - Oil-producing countries have significantly increased production this year, particularly non-OPEC nations, but the urgency for further increases from Saudi Arabia has diminished, as evidenced by OPEC+ pausing production increases in Q1 of next year [3] - Demand-side improvements are anticipated as global trade conditions become clearer, with recent reports from major global agencies raising oil demand growth forecasts [3][4] - The technical outlook shows a potential for a short-term price rebound, with key support at $58 and resistance at $60 [4] US Dollar Index - There is considerable internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding future rate cuts, which may limit the downside for the dollar [5] - The potential announcement of a new Federal Reserve chair by the US President could challenge the Fed's independence, especially given Trump's preference for loose monetary policy, which may exert downward pressure on the dollar [5] - According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is 15.5%, with an 84.5% chance of rates remaining unchanged [6] - The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, with recent price action showing signs of stabilization, but the dollar remains below the 20-day moving average [6] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has been experiencing a period of high-level consolidation over the past month, with no clear directional movement until a breakout occurs [7] - The index is currently above the 20-day moving average, and a bullish crossover between the 20-day and 62-day moving averages suggests a higher likelihood of further gains [7] Copper Market - The copper market is showing strong bullish momentum, with recent price action indicating a breakout from a consolidation range [8] - The 20-day moving average continues to trend upward, indicating that bullish sentiment is dominant [8] - Key support is noted at $5.62, which will be monitored for potential price corrections [8] Market Overview - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that oil consumption has increased by over 1 million barrels per day annually over the past two years, with projections suggesting a potential increase of 20 million barrels per day by 2050 [9] - Saudi government data indicates an 11.8% increase in commodity exports in October, with oil exports rising by 4.0% [9] - An agreement has been reached between Iraq, the Kurdistan region, and international companies to extend the oil export agreement for three months until March 31 of next year [10]

Group 1: Asphalt Supply and Demand - Domestic asphalt supply is expected to continue growing in 2026, but demand growth is anticipated to be limited, leading to a generally loose market for asphalt spot prices [1][7] - Asphalt production is shifting towards high-cost quota crude oil due to domestic consumption tax policy reforms, which have reduced the demand for diluted asphalt and other heavy raw materials [3][7] - Domestic asphalt imports have declined, with a cumulative decrease of 7.5% year-on-year for the first ten months of 2025, while exports have increased by 46% [4] Group 2: Asphalt Production and Market Conditions - The domestic asphalt production capacity is expected to maintain a low operating rate of 25% to 35%, with an estimated production of around 28.5 million tons in 2025, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [3][7] - The asphalt market is projected to remain in a state of oversupply in 2026, with limited growth in demand due to fiscal constraints and a slowdown in road construction investments [5][7] - The real estate market's downturn is expected to suppress demand for asphalt waterproofing materials, keeping production rates for waterproofing companies at low levels [6][7] Group 3: Price Trends and Market Outlook - Based on cost and supply-demand dynamics, the average price of asphalt is expected to further decline in 2026, with a projected fluctuation range of 2400 to 3200 yuan per ton [8] - The overall asphalt market is likely to maintain a state of ample supply, with seasonal inventory fluctuations, while the operating rates of asphalt refineries are expected to remain constrained [7]

Gold - The recent focus on the new Federal Reserve chair candidate has led to a rise in gold prices due to dovish expectations [2] - President Trump is inclined towards a dovish candidate for the Federal Reserve, with Hassett and Waller being key candidates who frequently express dovish views [2] - Increased geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding potential actions against Iran, have heightened risk aversion, supporting gold prices [2] - Short-term easing and rising risk aversion are expected to provide significant support for gold prices [2] - Technically, the recent price action shows a bullish trend, breaking out of a consolidation range, indicating potential for further gains [2] - Key support level to watch is at $4424 [2] Oil - OPEC+ is accelerating its production increase plans, suggesting a more flexible future production policy [4] - OPEC has decided to pause production increases in the first quarter of next year, while U.S. drilling activity is low, indicating a potential peak in U.S. production [4] - Russian oil production remains resilient despite sanctions, but export volumes are slightly contracting [4] - Non-OPEC production increases may slow down after recent adjustments [4] - Technically, the oil market shows a strong short-term trend, with a key support level at $56.78 [6] Copper - The copper market is currently in a consolidation phase, with prices above the 20-day moving average indicating a bullish advantage [8] - Key resistance level to monitor is at $5.52, while support is at $5.35 [8] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown a rebound over the last two trading days, currently trading above the 20-day moving average, indicating a slight bullish advantage [9] - Key support level to watch is at 49,935 [9]