1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the energy and chemical industry in the report is "Cautiously Bearish" [1][2][3][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driver for most commodities is supply - demand imbalance, with supply often exceeding demand, leading to downward pressure on prices. Crude oil is affected by supply over - capacity and inventory changes; other products like LPG, L, PP, PVC, etc., are also influenced by factors such as cost, supply, and demand dynamics [1][2][5] 3. Summary According to Different Commodities Crude Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply over - capacity is the core driver. Entering the consumption off - season, US inventory has risen, but the absolute inventory level is not high, providing some support at the bottom. OPEC+ plans to continue expanding production in November, increasing the pressure of supply over - capacity and downward pressure on oil prices. Key focus is on the marginal change in crude oil production [1] - **Strategy**: Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC between [430 - 450] [1][10] LPG - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: The cost side is weak as the oil price supply is in surplus and Saudi Arabia has lowered the CP contract price. The LPG valuation has been repaired, and the basis of the main contract has returned to normal. The supply side is relatively sufficient, and the factory inventory has increased. The downstream chemical demand has recovered, showing strong demand resilience [1] - **Strategy**: Follow the oil price trend. Hold short positions. Consider selling put options. Pay attention to the range of PG between [4100 - 4200] [1][14] L - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish trend continues [1] - **Main Logic**: Futures and spot prices have fallen together, the basis has weakened, and the futures price has reached a new low for the year. New LD and other devices are put into production, and the supply pattern remains loose in the fourth - quarter seasonal upturn. Although the demand peak season has arrived, the restocking motivation is insufficient. The oil price center has moved down, and the cost support is insufficient [1] - **Strategy**: Industries should hedge at high prices. The futures price will continue to seek the bottom. Pay attention to the range of L between [6800 - 7000] [1][19] PP - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish trend continues [1] - **Main Logic**: Futures and spot prices continue to seek the bottom, and the futures price has returned to a premium structure. After the holiday, the commercial inventory has increased, slightly exceeding the seasonal characteristics, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. With the end of the "Silver October" and the seasonal increase in upstream production in the fourth quarter, there is high pressure to reduce inventory in the future. PDH profit has been significantly repaired. Pay attention to whether the cost support of propane can strengthen [1] - **Strategy**: Industries should hedge at high prices. The futures price will continue to seek the bottom. Pay attention to the range of PP between [6500 - 6700] [1][24] PVC - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish trend continues [1] - **Main Logic**: The Formosa Plastics' quotation in November has been lowered, and the main contract has broken through the support level and reached a new low for the year. After the holiday, the inventory of the upstream and mid - stream has increased more than expected, and the fundamental situation remains loose. Industrial hedging has put pressure on the price, and there is still an expectation of further inventory accumulation in the future. However, the absolute price is undervalued, and the room for further decline in the spot price is limited under high pre - sales [1] - **Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the price will continue to explore the bottom weakly. Be cautious about short - selling due to the low - valued absolute price [1][28] PX - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: The supply side has slightly increased the load of domestic and overseas devices, and the demand side has seen a slight increase in PTA start - up. The supply - demand is in a tight balance but is expected to be loose. Since this year, PXN has been at a relatively high level, and PX - MX has been on the high side. Macroscopically, crude oil is under pressure, and naphtha is weakening [1] - **Strategy**: The valuation is not high. Close short positions at low prices and pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices. Pay attention to the range of PX601 between [6260 - 6370] [1][32][33] PTA - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Main Logic**: The supply - side start - up load has increased. There is an expectation of a "Silver October" consumption peak season on the demand side, and the terminal orders have slightly improved. The supply - demand was in a tight balance in September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter. In the short term, PTA follows the cost fluctuations. However, the processing fee is not high, and the valuation is low [2] - **Strategy**: The valuation and processing fee are not high. Close short positions at low prices. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices in the term C structure. Pay attention to the range of TA01 between [4380 - 4460] [2][36][37] MEG - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Main Logic**: Domestic devices have increased their load, and overseas devices have changed little. Terminal consumption has improved in the short term but is expected to be under pressure. After the holiday, the supply is expected to increase due to new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices. MEG inventory has slightly increased. Recently, it follows the cost fluctuations and is oscillating weakly [2] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG01 between [4010 - 4070] [2][40][41] Methanol - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish, but pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices for the 01 contract [2] - **Main Logic**: Due to Sino - US trade frictions, the US tariff policy is short - term negative. The start - up load of domestic and overseas methanol devices has rebounded, and the number of device maintenance has increased recently. The import profit has slightly improved, and the expected arrival volume in October is about 1.7 million tons, so the overall supply pressure remains high. The demand side has improved, but the traditional downstream profit is relatively low, and the comprehensive weighted start - up load is weak. The social inventory has increased again. The cost support is stable [2] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully and pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices for the 01 contract. Pay attention to the range of MA01 between [2265 - 2305] [2][45][47] Urea - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish, but consider long - position opportunities at low prices in the long term [2] - **Main Logic**: The urea supply is relatively loose, and the daily production is expected to remain around 200,000 tons in the first half of October. The demand side is still cold domestically and hot overseas. The domestic industrial and agricultural demand is generally weak, but fertilizer exports are relatively good. The inventory has continued to accumulate and is still at a high level in the past five years. The cost side has some support [2] - **Strategy**: The fundamentals remain weak, but the urea valuation is not high. Consider light - position long - term long - position opportunities at low prices. Pay attention to the range of UR601 between [1590 - 1620] [2][50][52] Natural Gas - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [5] - **Main Logic**: Supply is sufficient, leading to a decline in gas prices. On October 10th, the US launched a new tariff war, increasing macro - risks, and trade policies are negative for energy prices. EIA data shows that as of the week ending October 3rd, the number of US natural gas rigs increased by 1 to 118. The cooling temperature increases combustion demand and gas storage for winter, providing some support for gas prices [5] Asphalt - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish [5] - **Main Logic**: The cost side, crude oil, has weakened, the demand side has decreased due to weather disturbances, and the supply - side pressure has increased, putting pressure on asphalt prices. The overall supply - demand of asphalt is loose, with the production growth rate significantly higher than the demand growth rate. The demand in the north has decreased significantly due to rain. The current cracking spread and BU - FU spread are at high levels, indicating over - valuation [5] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [5] Glass - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish trend continues [5] - **Main Logic**: Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is insufficient, both futures and spot prices have fallen, and the basis has remained stable. There is no short - term macro - policy drive in China, and the building materials sector has declined together. After the holiday, the factory inventory has increased, and deep - processing orders remain at a low level compared to the same period. Pay attention to the downstream restocking strength during the peak season. The daily melting volume is 161,300 tons, and both coal - fired and petroleum - coke processes are profitable, so it is unlikely that enterprises will unexpectedly shut down for cold repair, resulting in supply pressure [5] - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern remains loose. Short - sell based on the 5 - day moving average in the short term [5] Soda Ash - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish trend continues [5] - **Main Logic**: The number of warehouse receipt forecasts has increased, both futures and spot prices have fallen, and the basis has remained stable. After the holiday, the factory inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks, and the supply pattern remains loose. Most of the demand side continues with just - in - time purchases. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic + float glass is 250,000 tons. Some devices such as Zhongyuan Chemical and Tianjin Alkali Plant are under maintenance, and the production is expected to decline slightly [5] - **Strategy**: Industries should hedge at high prices. Short - sell on rebounds in the medium - to - long term. Hold long positions in the spread between soda ash and glass [5]