哈喽大家好，今天老张带大家聊聊，全球芯片圈最近彻底炸锅了！特朗普刚重返白宫就放大招，当地时 间1月14日白宫一声令下，1月15日起就对英伟达H200人工智能处理器、超微半导体（AMD）MI325X人 工智能加速器芯片等高端产品，加征25%的进口从价关税。 更狠的是，此次加征依据《1962年贸易扩展法》第232条款，以"应对国家安全威胁"为由推进，后续将 在完成谈判后对更大范围进口半导体加征"显著税率"，还推出"关税抵消机制"，为投资美国半导体产业 的企业提供关税优惠，明摆着要把半导体企业往美国本土拽，这是铁了心要重构全球半导体供应链。 不少人一看这架势，都替中国芯片业捏把汗——毕竟咱2024年进口芯片高达5492.6亿块，进口额达 3857.9亿美元（约2.8万亿元人民币），占中国货物进口总额的14.9%，进口额居高不下。 高端芯片依赖度方面，人工智能芯片70%靠进口，计算和控制类芯片更是99%依赖海外。这波关税要是 真精准打击，不得伤筋动骨？ 2024年咱芯片出口额达1595.5亿美元，同比增长17.4%，首次超过手机成为中国第一大出口商品，这些 产品跟美国征税的高端货压根不搭边，等于这波冲击直接绕着走，没 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and contradictions faced by the U.S. semiconductor industry, particularly in relation to the CHIPS Act and the role of TSMC, highlighting the internal chaos and global competition that the U.S. is experiencing in its pursuit of technological sovereignty [3][4]. Group 1: CHIPS Act and TSMC's Role - The CHIPS Act, initiated during the Biden administration, is now facing criticism and funding cuts from the Trump administration, revealing the complexities of U.S. technology policy [3]. - TSMC, as the largest foundry globally, is seen as a strategic asset for the U.S., receiving significant financial support for its investments in Arizona, including $6.6 billion in subsidies and $25 billion in tax incentives [3]. - Despite the financial incentives, TSMC's most advanced manufacturing processes (2nm and 1.4nm) will remain in Taiwan, indicating a strategic choice rather than a technical limitation [3]. Group 2: Global Competition and Subsidy Race - The U.S. has inadvertently sparked a global subsidy race, with major tech hubs investing over $150 billion in semiconductor manufacturing and R&D, raising concerns about potential overcapacity and profit compression [4]. - The original intent of the CHIPS Act was to reduce reliance on Asian supply chains and curb China's advancements in critical technologies, but the execution has led to a misalignment with these goals [4]. Group 3: Current Semiconductor Landscape - A 2022 survey by the U.S. Department of Commerce revealed that the most severe chip shortages were in traditional chips (40nm and above), which are primarily produced in Asia, indicating a disconnect between the CHIPS Act's objectives and the actual market needs [4]. - The political divide in the U.S. regarding semiconductor policy has led to uncertainty about the future of the CHIPS Act, with potential delays or renegotiations of subsidies, causing semiconductor companies to adopt a wait-and-see approach [4]. Group 4: Future Directions - The establishment of the National Semiconductor Technology Center (NSTC) in New York marks a new phase for U.S. semiconductor policy, focusing on advanced research in 1.4nm and quantum chips [5]. - Success in regaining technological leadership will require not only financial investment but also clear strategy and international coordination to avoid misdirection and execution imbalances [5].

Core Viewpoint - China's goods trade experienced a slight decline in early 2025, with total import and export value decreasing by 1.2% year-on-year, while exports grew by 3.4% and imports fell by 7.3% [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Statistics - In the first two months of 2025, China's total import and export value reached 6.54 trillion yuan, with exports amounting to 3.88 trillion yuan and imports at 2.66 trillion yuan [1]. - In USD terms, the total import and export value was approximately 909.37 billion, with exports at 539.94 billion and imports at 369.43 billion [1]. Group 2: Semiconductor Industry Insights - In early 2025, China's integrated circuit exports reached 180.44 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 13.2% [2]. - The import of electromechanical products totaled 1 trillion yuan, with integrated circuits accounting for 834.6 million units, a 6.3% increase, valued at 402.28 billion yuan, up by 3.9% [2]. - China's semiconductor market constitutes about 30% of the global semiconductor market, with significant investments in traditional chip manufacturing [3]. - The production capacity of semiconductor manufacturers in mainland China is expected to grow by 12% in 2023, reaching 7.6 million wafers per month, with a further 13% increase anticipated in 2024 [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competition - The rise of Chinese semiconductor manufacturers is creating pressure on Western companies, particularly in the mature process nodes (28nm and above) [3][4]. - There is a potential risk of oversupply in the market due to the rapid expansion of Chinese firms, which may lead to price wars and affect profit margins for both local and Western companies [4]. - Western semiconductor companies may need to increase innovation efforts to maintain competitiveness, which requires significant investment and time [4].