TechInsights 平台 --- TechInsights Platform library.techinsights.com/hg-content/d4f4042b-c17d-4b75-87a7-1d07cdd93ce0 By G. Dan Hutcheson 作者：G. Dan Hutcheson Summary: 摘要： Chip Acts: Intel, Hamilton, Jefferson, Jackson, Biden, Trump 芯片法案：英特尔、汉密尔顿、杰斐逊、杰克逊、拜登、特朗普 Last Friday I explained the rationale behind President Trump's flip on Lip-Bu Tan and the larger strategy governing the move… Since then, SoftBank announced it would invest $2B of equity in Intel, which opened the door for the Trump administration to pro ...

来源：环球市场播报 根据一份新闻稿，这些股权是由前总统拜登的《美国芯片和科学法案》之前授予英特尔的拨款换来的。 该公司已经从芯片法案中获得了22亿美元，并将再获得57亿美元。另外，还将从一个单独的政府项目中 拨款32亿美元。 一些信心正在恢复，英特尔股票目前的交易价格是在步坦领导下的18个月以来的最高水平。 股价大涨推动英特尔股价突破37美元，美国政府所持英特尔10%股份的价值也因此升至约160亿美元。 今年8月，特朗普政府通过谈判，以每股20.47美元的价格收购了4.333亿股英特尔普通股，投资89亿美 元。 白宫新闻秘书卡洛琳·莱维特发表了一篇文章，庆祝这一增长。 除了政府之外，英特尔一直在吸引其他主要投资者，包括软银和最近的英伟达。今年9月，这家GPU巨 头宣布将向英特尔投资50亿美元，作为合作开发数据中心和个人电脑产品的一部分。 今年早些时候，这家陷入困境的芯片制造商的股价跌至十多年来的最低水平。 英特尔艰难的2024财年，股价下跌了60%，是有记录以来最糟糕的一年，随后时任首席执行官帕特•盖 尔辛格于去年12月离职。 "特朗普总统对美国芯片制造业的关注，正在推动对一个对国家经济和国家安全不可或缺的重 ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 来 源 ： 内容 编译自 semiwiki 。 根据 SEMI 和 SEAJ 的数据，2025 年第二季度全球半导体制造设备支出总计 330.7 亿美元。2025 年第二季度的支出较 2024 年第二季度增长 23%。中国大陆的支出最高，为 113.6 亿美元，占总支出 的 34%。 然而，中国大陆 2025 年第二季度的支出较 2024 年第二季度下降了 7%。台湾的支出额位居第二， 且增长最快，2025 年第二季度的支出为 87.7 亿美元，较 2024 年第二季度增长 125%。台积电是台 湾增长的主要推动力，其 2025 年上半年的资本支出 (CapEx) 较 2024 年上半年增长 62%。韩国的 支出位居第三，为 59.1 亿美元，同比增长 31%。 2024 年北美半导体设备支出增长最快，2024 年第四季度支出为 49.8 亿美元，比 2024 年第一季度 的 18.9 亿美元增长 163%。然而，2025 年第一季度北美支出为 29.3 亿美元，比 2024 年第四季度 下降 41%。2025 年第二季度支出再次下降至 27.6 亿美元。支出下 ...

Core Points - Intel has modified its funding agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce regarding the CHIPS Act, removing previous project milestone requirements and receiving approximately $5.7 billion in cash upfront, providing greater flexibility in fund usage [1] - The revised agreement is based on an initial financing agreement from November 2024, while retaining certain restrictive clauses, including prohibitions on using the funds for dividend payments and stock buybacks, specific ownership changes, and business expansion in certain countries [1] - As part of the agreement, Intel issued 274.6 million shares to the U.S. government, with an additional commitment for the government to purchase up to 240.5 million shares under certain conditions [1] - Intel has already invested at least $7.87 billion in projects eligible for funding under the CHIPS Act [1] - The U.S. government now holds a 9.9% stake in Intel, raising concerns about the future development prospects of U.S. companies following President Trump's indication of plans to pursue more similar transactions [1] - The total government funding support for Intel has reached $11.1 billion, combining the recent $8.9 billion investment with a previous $2.2 billion subsidy [2] - Intel's CFO stated that the government's stake plan is essentially an incentive for Intel to maintain control over its contract manufacturing business [2]

Core Viewpoint - The transformation of the CHIPS Act from a subsidy program to a government equity investment model signifies a major shift in the U.S. semiconductor industry strategy, reflecting a move from "market repair" to "national control" [2][4]. Group 1: Origin of the CHIPS Act - The CHIPS Act was born out of deep anxiety over the decline of U.S. semiconductor manufacturing capabilities, with the U.S. share of global semiconductor production dropping from 40% in 1990 to just 12% by 2020 [4]. - The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the semiconductor shortage, leading to significant losses for automakers and revealing critical weaknesses in the U.S. semiconductor supply chain [4]. - The CHIPS Act authorized $52.7 billion for semiconductor manufacturing incentives, aiming to increase U.S. production of advanced chips to 20% by 2030, attracting global semiconductor companies with a total investment commitment of $388 billion [4]. Group 2: Intel's Situation - Intel, the largest beneficiary of the CHIPS Act, received $7.86 billion in subsidies but faced significant operational challenges, including a net loss of $1.654 billion in Q2 2024 and a market cap decline of over 60% [6]. - The company is lagging behind competitors like TSMC and Samsung in advanced process technology, leading to delays in new factory constructions and a restructuring of its leadership [6][7]. - The U.S. government is negotiating to acquire a 10% stake in Intel, marking a shift from support to direct government control, raising legal and ethical concerns [7]. Group 3: TSMC's Challenges - TSMC received $6.6 billion in subsidies for building advanced chip manufacturing facilities in Arizona but faced cultural clashes and labor issues that delayed project timelines [8][9]. - The company had to increase local employee ratios to 85% due to union pressures, which extended the timeline for production ramp-up and increased costs [8]. - TSMC's executives discussed the possibility of returning subsidies if forced to accept government equity, highlighting the tension between government control and corporate autonomy [9]. Group 4: Samsung's Restrictions - Samsung received $4.75 billion in subsidies for a facility in Texas but encountered significant technical challenges, delaying production and leading to workforce reductions [10][11]. - The company faced strict limitations on expanding its production capabilities in China, which could hinder its global competitiveness [10]. - Samsung's subsidy amount was reduced from $6.4 billion to $4.75 billion, signaling the unpredictable nature of government support based on political considerations [11]. Group 5: Micron's Position - Micron, the only U.S.-based memory manufacturer, received $6.1 billion in funding to build new factories but faces challenges in entering the high-bandwidth memory market, where it is significantly behind competitors [12]. - The company is not required to offer equity to the government, which alleviates some control risks but may lead to over-reliance on government support [12]. Group 6: Traditional Manufacturers' Struggles - Texas Instruments received $1.6 billion for new factories but has not garnered the attention that larger projects have, despite the critical role of traditional chips in various industries [13]. - GlobalFoundries, another traditional manufacturer, received $1.5 billion but still faces significant funding challenges and must rely on self-financing for expansion [14]. Group 7: Research Institutions' Dilemma - The National Semiconductor Technology Advancement Center (NATCAST) was allocated $7.4 billion for research but recently had its funding canceled, jeopardizing its operations and future projects [16][17]. - The cancellation of funds highlights the fragility of research institutions that depend on public funding, raising concerns about the sustainability of semiconductor research in the U.S. [17]. Group 8: Overall Assessment of the CHIPS Act - The CHIPS Act's failure is attributed to a fundamental misunderstanding of market dynamics and the complexities of a globalized industry, leading to ineffective resource allocation and a lack of long-term solutions [19][20]. - The act has not only failed to reshape the global supply chain but has also accelerated fragmentation in the industry, increasing costs and complicating global innovation [20].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has acquired a 10% stake in Intel to prevent the company from divesting its chip manufacturing business, which has been under pressure due to ongoing losses [3][6]. Group 1: Government Investment - The U.S. government agreed to convert $8.9 billion in federal subsidies from the 2022 CHIPS Act into equity, acquiring a 10% stake in Intel [3]. - The agreement includes a five-year warrant that allows the government to acquire an additional 5% of Intel's shares at $20 per share if Intel's ownership of its foundry business falls below 51% [3][6]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Challenges - Intel's foundry business faced significant challenges, reporting a loss of $13 billion last year due to difficulties in competing with TSMC and attracting external customers [6]. - The CFO of Intel, David Zinsner, expressed skepticism about the likelihood of reducing the company's stake in the foundry business below 50%, indicating that the government shares this view [3][6]. Group 3: Implications of the Deal - The government’s direct investment may serve as a constraint mechanism to prevent Intel from pursuing divestiture, which the government does not favor [8]. - Despite the investment, major companies like Nvidia, Apple, and Qualcomm have yet to place orders with Intel, as the company struggles to demonstrate reliable manufacturing capabilities [8].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports a 25 basis point rate cut in the September meeting, with expectations for further cuts in the next 3 to 6 months unless significant economic weakness is shown in the August employment report [5] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is estimated at 86.2%, while the likelihood of maintaining rates is only 13.8% [5] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - On August 28, U.S. stock markets opened higher, with the Nasdaq up 0.53%, S&P 500 up 0.32%, and Dow Jones up 0.16%, with both Dow and S&P 500 reaching new closing highs [1] - Popular tech stocks mostly rose, with Google A up over 2%, Amazon up over 1%, while Tesla fell over 1% and Nvidia slightly decreased by 0.79% [2] Group 3: Intel and Government Involvement - Intel's CFO announced receipt of $5.7 billion in unpaid funds from the CHIPS Act, which will convert into government equity, raising concerns about potential impacts on customer relationships [3] - The Trump administration's investment of $8.9 billion for a 9.9% stake in Intel aims to prevent the sale of its chip manufacturing division, but may alter how clients perceive the company [3] Group 4: EU-U.S. Trade Relations - The European Commission proposed legislation to eliminate certain tariffs on U.S. goods, including industrial products and seafood, to enhance transatlantic trade relations [6] - The U.S. has committed to reducing tariffs on EU automobiles and parts from 27.5% to 15%, while also implementing zero or near-zero tariffs on various EU products starting September 1 [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, criticized the Biden administration for being "weak" in negotiations with companies, particularly regarding subsidies without tangible benefits [1][3] - Lutnick emphasized the achievements of the Trump administration, highlighting a $165 billion investment announcement from TSMC and the need for better deals for American citizens [3] - He pointed out that companies like Micron and Texas Instruments increased their investment plans significantly, from $2.5 billion to $20 billion and from $23 billion to $60 billion respectively, under the Trump administration [3] Group 2 - Lutnick mentioned Intel as a struggling chip manufacturer, stating that the Biden administration provided approximately $11 billion in subsidies without securing any substantial returns [4] - He recalled a deal made with Intel during the Trump administration, where the government acquired a 10% stake in the company, equivalent to the $11 billion in subsidies provided [4]

Government Investment & Industry Focus - US Treasury Secretary Yellen indicates Nvidia doesn't need financial support or government equity [1] - US government is considering equity stakes in other sectors, including shipbuilding [1] - The Trump administration is not planning to take equity stakes in TSMC and Micron despite their increased US investments [2] Semiconductor Industry & Funding - TSMC executives considered returning Chip Act funding if the US government demanded equity [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, stated that the funds previously granted to Intel (INTC.US) did not come with any requirements [1] - There is a consensus that fairness must be ensured in transactions related to the semiconductor industry [1] - Raimondo criticized the improper execution of the CHIPS Act, specifically pointing out the issue of "giving money to companies" [1]