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头部券商把脉2026:A股有望震荡上行 科技成长仍是投资主线
Core Viewpoint - The consensus among major securities firms is that the A-share market is expected to enter a "slow bull market" in 2026, with a shift in investment opportunities from technology dominance in 2025 to multiple main lines in 2026 [1][3][4] Market Outlook - Following the policy measures introduced on September 24, 2024, the A-share market has entered a new bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high in 2025 [2] - Securities firms predict that the market will continue to evolve within a slow bull framework, with a key feature being the shift in driving forces [3][4] Driving Forces - The driving force is expected to shift from "valuation repair" to "profit-driven" or "fundamental verification" in 2026 [4] - Estimates suggest that the overall profit growth for A-shares in 2026 could be around 4.7%, with many industries nearing performance improvement turning points [4] Investment Strategies - Major securities firms highlight three main investment lines: technology growth, Chinese enterprises going global, and cyclical resource products [9][11][13] - The technology growth sector remains a favored direction, with a focus on performance rather than concepts, particularly in application breakthroughs [10] - The trend of Chinese enterprises expanding internationally is seen as a significant configuration clue, with a focus on sectors like home appliances, engineering machinery, and electric grid equipment [12] Market Style Rotation - The potential for a style switch from "growth" to "value" around June 2026 is a focal point of discussion among securities firms [7][8] - The market is expected to trend towards a more balanced style, with cyclical industries approaching supply-demand equilibrium [8][6] Resource Products - Resource products are anticipated to become a new main line following technology, driven by global monetary easing and supply-demand gaps [13][14]