申万宏源策略 牛市两段论——申万宏源2026年A股投资策略 原创 阅读全文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among major securities firms is that the A-share market is expected to enter a "slow bull market" in 2026, with a shift in investment opportunities from technology dominance in 2025 to multiple main lines in 2026 [1][3][4] Market Outlook - Following the policy measures introduced on September 24, 2024, the A-share market has entered a new bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high in 2025 [2] - Securities firms predict that the market will continue to evolve within a slow bull framework, with a key feature being the shift in driving forces [3][4] Driving Forces - The driving force is expected to shift from "valuation repair" to "profit-driven" or "fundamental verification" in 2026 [4] - Estimates suggest that the overall profit growth for A-shares in 2026 could be around 4.7%, with many industries nearing performance improvement turning points [4] Investment Strategies - Major securities firms highlight three main investment lines: technology growth, Chinese enterprises going global, and cyclical resource products [9][11][13] - The technology growth sector remains a favored direction, with a focus on performance rather than concepts, particularly in application breakthroughs [10] - The trend of Chinese enterprises expanding internationally is seen as a significant configuration clue, with a focus on sectors like home appliances, engineering machinery, and electric grid equipment [12] Market Style Rotation - The potential for a style switch from "growth" to "value" around June 2026 is a focal point of discussion among securities firms [7][8] - The market is expected to trend towards a more balanced style, with cyclical industries approaching supply-demand equilibrium [8][6] Resource Products - Resource products are anticipated to become a new main line following technology, driven by global monetary easing and supply-demand gaps [13][14]

Market Sentiment - The stock market in March 2025 is described as dull and filled with anxiety, with retail investors expressing frustration and desperation over their losses [1] - Investors are eagerly waiting for clear signals and indicators to guide their decisions, but the reality is that many are aware that the so-called "bottom" is often just a trap for unsuspecting traders [5] Technical Analysis - There is a significant reliance on technical indicators such as monthly, weekly, and daily charts, with conflicting opinions on which to prioritize [3] - On March 12, the Shenzhen Composite Index fell sharply by 2.3%, leading to despair among investors who feel lost in their trading strategies [3] - A friend of the author expresses skepticism about the reliability of daily indicators, having suffered a loss of 7,800 yuan due to misguided trades [7] Investment Strategies - Various aggressive investment strategies like pyramid and inverted pyramid averaging are being discussed among investors, but many are finding themselves in precarious positions as a result [9] - A young investor, new to the market, feels pressured to take risks despite not wanting to gamble, reflecting the broader sentiment of uncertainty among retail investors [11] Market Dynamics - On April 8, a slight market rebound occurred, but the net inflow of northbound funds was only 120 million yuan, significantly lower than the same period last year, raising doubts about the sustainability of this recovery [7] - The narrative of "technical resonance" is questioned, suggesting that it may be an illusion created by capital flows rather than genuine market strength [7] Conclusion - The overall atmosphere in the market is one of uncertainty and hesitation, with many investors waiting for a sign of redemption that may never come, leading to a cycle of regret and missed opportunities [13]

Group 1 - The current pricing factor of A-shares is driven by liquidity and risk appetite rather than earnings, with July economic data reflecting weak fundamentals in production, consumption, and investment [15][16] - The influx of retail investors is accelerating, with July A-share account openings reaching 1.9636 million, a month-on-month increase of 19.27% and a year-on-year increase of 70.54%, indicating significant room for further retail participation [15][16] - The ratio of margin financing to A-share market capitalization is at a historically healthy level, with margin financing reaching 2.15 trillion, but only accounting for 2.3% of the A-share market, significantly lower than the historical peak of 4.72% [16][27] Group 2 - Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting have opened the door for potential rate cuts in September, which is expected to boost risk appetite for A-shares under a backdrop of global liquidity easing [17][30] - The sentiment reflected in the stock index options volatility indicates that there is still considerable distance from extreme optimism levels, suggesting that the market has not yet reached a euphoric state [16][28] - The current ratio of household deposits to A-share market capitalization stands at 1.7, indicating substantial downward potential for household deposits, as seen in previous bullish market phases [16][27]

Group 1 - The A-share market has recently seen a continuous rise, breaking through key levels of 3500, 3600, and 3700 points, but the total number of new brokerage accounts remains significantly lower than the "9·24 market" last year despite a substantial month-on-month increase [2] - The current market is characterized by a lack of broad-based gains, with individual stock performance showing significant divergence, leading to increased difficulty in stock selection and a cautious sentiment among retail investors [2] - Brokerage strategies are shifting from merely pursuing new accounts to focusing on "sleeping clients" and targeting high-net-worth individuals, offering tailored services such as quantitative products and customized investment advisory [3] Group 2 - For ordinary investors, two main investment directions are suggested: using ETFs as a preferred choice when individual stock selection is challenging, and focusing on industry-specific ETFs to mitigate selection risks [4] - Emphasis is placed on large-cap index funds like the CSI 300 for medium to long-term investments, particularly during bear markets, as holding these can yield significant returns in bull markets [5] - Institutions anticipate an investment boom in the fourth quarter, highlighting the importance of rational positioning and selecting the right tools [6]

Group 1: Macro and Strategy Insights - The macro view for August indicates a stable policy environment with an upward shift in risk appetite, suggesting that industrial growth will remain a key theme [7] - The strategy outlook highlights an "extension of offensive trends" in the market, with a recommendation to maintain positions and selectively increase holdings as the A-share market shows a bullish trend [8] - The quantitative perspective suggests breaking the deflationary spiral, with expectations for a cyclical upswing in the market [9] Group 2: Selected Stocks for August - The selected stocks for August include China Pacific Insurance (non-bank), China Shipbuilding Industry (military), Shanghai Yanpu (large manufacturing), Weilan Lithium (electric new energy), Wanjun Technology (computer), Guomai Culture (media), Baiwei Storage (consumer electronics), Huaxi Nonferrous Metals (non-ferrous), Sun Paper (light industry), and Tigermed (pharmaceutical) [11] - China Pacific Insurance is positioned as a leading insurance company with a strong background, expected to benefit from its transformation and increase in new business value [12] - China Shipbuilding Industry is identified as a leader in naval defense, benefiting from advancements in deep-sea technology and a growing market for underwater monitoring systems [17] - Shanghai Yanpu is noted for its potential in the seating market, with a platform transformation expected to enhance performance and market share [20] - Weilan Lithium is recognized for its robust main business and potential for valuation upgrades due to new product developments [25] - Wanjun Technology is highlighted for its long-standing expertise in creative software, with AI product commercialization expected to accelerate growth [28] - Guomai Culture is anticipated to benefit from the release of its animated film "The Stars of the Three Kingdoms," which is expected to drive revenue [32] - Baiwei Storage is positioned to benefit from the upward cycle in the storage industry, with a focus on advanced packaging technology [38] - Huaxi Nonferrous Metals is expected to see price increases in tin and antimony, driven by strong demand and limited supply [43] - Sun Paper is projected to benefit from industry stabilization and cost advantages from its integrated operations [50] - Tigermed is positioned to gain from the growing demand for clinical CRO services as the innovative drug sector expands [55]

Investment Highlights - The report indicates a moderate increase in major domestic indices, with small-cap growth styles outperforming [6] - The performance of Shenwan's first-level industries shows a divergence, with non-ferrous metals, banking, and defense industries leading in gains [6] - International markets exhibit mixed index performance, with Europe and emerging markets showing notable strength [6] Domestic and International Economic Outlook - The domestic economy is on a continuous recovery path, with internal demand supporting external demand [6] - Coordinated fiscal and monetary policies are being implemented to boost the economy, with a comprehensive policy package introduced [6][6] - The overseas economic landscape remains influenced by the unchanged interest rate path of the Federal Reserve and the disruptive effects of Trump's tariff policies on the global economy [6] A-Share Liquidity Outlook - Trading volumes in both markets have surged, with a significant increase in new account openings [6] - Investor risk appetite is improving, and the balance of margin financing and securities lending is expected to continue rising [6] - The RMB exchange rate is steadily strengthening, leading to anticipated continued inflows of northbound capital [6] - Insurance funds are becoming a crucial source of incremental market capital, with policy support expected to enhance the scale of future inflows [6] Mid-term Investment Strategy for A-Shares in 2025 - Focus on technology sector investments [6] - Emphasis on new consumption trends [6] - Investment opportunities in innovative pharmaceuticals [6] - Strategies to counteract "involution" in various sectors [6] - Dividend-paying stocks are highlighted as attractive investments [6] - Non-ferrous metals are identified as a sector with potential [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the resignation of Xun Yugen from his positions at Guotai Junan Securities, including Chief Economist and other key roles, with his future plans currently undisclosed [2] - Xun Yugen previously held significant positions at Zhongshan Securities and Huatai United Securities before joining Haitong Securities in 2011, where he served as Deputy Director and Chief Strategy Analyst [2] - He was recognized as a top analyst, winning 15 national best analyst awards and achieving a "Grand Slam" in various prestigious analyst awards [2] Group 2 - In a recent article, Xun Yugen emphasized the importance of a long-term investment strategy in the A-share market, highlighting its annualized return of 9.8% from 2005 to 2024, which is the highest among various asset classes [3] - He pointed out the high volatility of the A-share market, noting that while it has higher annualized gains during bull markets compared to the US market, it also experiences deeper declines during bear markets [3] - Xun Yugen advocates for a "tortoise-like" approach to investing in A-shares, suggesting that investors should focus on steady growth rather than short-term fluctuations [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the personnel adjustment at Guotai Junan Securities, with Xun Yugen no longer serving as the Chief Economist and other key positions [1][2] - Xun Yugen has completed his resignation procedures, but his future plans have not been disclosed [2] - Xun Yugen previously held significant roles at various securities firms, including his recent position as Chief Economist at Haitong Securities before joining Guotai Junan [3] Group 2 - Xun Yugen emphasized a cautious investment approach, comparing the long-term performance of A-shares to other asset classes, noting an annualized return of 9.8% from 2005 to 2024, which is the highest among various asset classes [4] - He pointed out the high volatility of A-shares, indicating that while they have higher returns during bull markets, they also experience deeper declines during bear markets, suggesting a "tortoise" approach to investing [4]

Core Viewpoint - Liquidity is the core element of capital market operations, significantly influencing market cyclical fluctuations [1] - Systematic intervention by stabilizing funds can effectively halt negative feedback loops during extreme risk events, becoming a key force in stabilizing valuation systems [1] - Recent actions by stabilizing funds have successfully restored market sentiment in response to fluctuations in the overseas policy environment, demonstrating their importance in market defense [1] Group 1 - Stabilizing funds' operations provide valuable insights for ordinary investors, suggesting that replicating these strategies could yield substantial returns [1] - The article posits that this approach represents a "broad avenue" for A-share investment, indicating a potential strategy for investors to follow [1]