2025 年 08 月 25 日 投资策略 系好安全带，车速会很快 相关研究报告 <<调整基石，新高可期>>--2025-08- 11 <<破云>>--2025-07-29 <<窄门 2>>--2025-07-25 <<窄门 1>>--2025-07-11 证券分析师：张冬冬 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：徐梓铭 E-MAIL：xuzm@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190525050001 证券分析师：吴步升 E-MAIL：wubs@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110002 当前 A 股的定价因子是分母端的流动性与风偏，而非分子端的盈利。 7 月经济数据反映出分子端的弱基本面现实。工业增加值、社零以及地产 投资较 6 月进一步下降，体现出生产、消费、投资的走弱；社融与信贷分 化，其中社融增长主要由政府债券支撑，居民与企业中长期贷款大幅下滑， 反映出居民与企业需求偏弱，需求主要由政府端支持。我们认为资金流入 →指数上涨→赚钱效应⬆→风偏⬆的正反馈循环是 A 股持续上涨的主因，短 期内 A 股仍将延续 ...

Group 1: Macro and Strategy Insights - The macro view for August indicates a stable policy environment with an upward shift in risk appetite, suggesting that industrial growth will remain a key theme [7] - The strategy outlook highlights an "extension of offensive trends" in the market, with a recommendation to maintain positions and selectively increase holdings as the A-share market shows a bullish trend [8] - The quantitative perspective suggests breaking the deflationary spiral, with expectations for a cyclical upswing in the market [9] Group 2: Selected Stocks for August - The selected stocks for August include China Pacific Insurance (non-bank), China Shipbuilding Industry (military), Shanghai Yanpu (large manufacturing), Weilan Lithium (electric new energy), Wanjun Technology (computer), Guomai Culture (media), Baiwei Storage (consumer electronics), Huaxi Nonferrous Metals (non-ferrous), Sun Paper (light industry), and Tigermed (pharmaceutical) [11] - China Pacific Insurance is positioned as a leading insurance company with a strong background, expected to benefit from its transformation and increase in new business value [12] - China Shipbuilding Industry is identified as a leader in naval defense, benefiting from advancements in deep-sea technology and a growing market for underwater monitoring systems [17] - Shanghai Yanpu is noted for its potential in the seating market, with a platform transformation expected to enhance performance and market share [20] - Weilan Lithium is recognized for its robust main business and potential for valuation upgrades due to new product developments [25] - Wanjun Technology is highlighted for its long-standing expertise in creative software, with AI product commercialization expected to accelerate growth [28] - Guomai Culture is anticipated to benefit from the release of its animated film "The Stars of the Three Kingdoms," which is expected to drive revenue [32] - Baiwei Storage is positioned to benefit from the upward cycle in the storage industry, with a focus on advanced packaging technology [38] - Huaxi Nonferrous Metals is expected to see price increases in tin and antimony, driven by strong demand and limited supply [43] - Sun Paper is projected to benefit from industry stabilization and cost advantages from its integrated operations [50] - Tigermed is positioned to gain from the growing demand for clinical CRO services as the innovative drug sector expands [55]

Investment Highlights - The report indicates a moderate increase in major domestic indices, with small-cap growth styles outperforming [6] - The performance of Shenwan's first-level industries shows a divergence, with non-ferrous metals, banking, and defense industries leading in gains [6] - International markets exhibit mixed index performance, with Europe and emerging markets showing notable strength [6] Domestic and International Economic Outlook - The domestic economy is on a continuous recovery path, with internal demand supporting external demand [6] - Coordinated fiscal and monetary policies are being implemented to boost the economy, with a comprehensive policy package introduced [6][6] - The overseas economic landscape remains influenced by the unchanged interest rate path of the Federal Reserve and the disruptive effects of Trump's tariff policies on the global economy [6] A-Share Liquidity Outlook - Trading volumes in both markets have surged, with a significant increase in new account openings [6] - Investor risk appetite is improving, and the balance of margin financing and securities lending is expected to continue rising [6] - The RMB exchange rate is steadily strengthening, leading to anticipated continued inflows of northbound capital [6] - Insurance funds are becoming a crucial source of incremental market capital, with policy support expected to enhance the scale of future inflows [6] Mid-term Investment Strategy for A-Shares in 2025 - Focus on technology sector investments [6] - Emphasis on new consumption trends [6] - Investment opportunities in innovative pharmaceuticals [6] - Strategies to counteract "involution" in various sectors [6] - Dividend-paying stocks are highlighted as attractive investments [6] - Non-ferrous metals are identified as a sector with potential [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the resignation of Xun Yugen from his positions at Guotai Junan Securities, including Chief Economist and other key roles, with his future plans currently undisclosed [2] - Xun Yugen previously held significant positions at Zhongshan Securities and Huatai United Securities before joining Haitong Securities in 2011, where he served as Deputy Director and Chief Strategy Analyst [2] - He was recognized as a top analyst, winning 15 national best analyst awards and achieving a "Grand Slam" in various prestigious analyst awards [2] Group 2 - In a recent article, Xun Yugen emphasized the importance of a long-term investment strategy in the A-share market, highlighting its annualized return of 9.8% from 2005 to 2024, which is the highest among various asset classes [3] - He pointed out the high volatility of the A-share market, noting that while it has higher annualized gains during bull markets compared to the US market, it also experiences deeper declines during bear markets [3] - Xun Yugen advocates for a "tortoise-like" approach to investing in A-shares, suggesting that investors should focus on steady growth rather than short-term fluctuations [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the personnel adjustment at Guotai Junan Securities, with Xun Yugen no longer serving as the Chief Economist and other key positions [1][2] - Xun Yugen has completed his resignation procedures, but his future plans have not been disclosed [2] - Xun Yugen previously held significant roles at various securities firms, including his recent position as Chief Economist at Haitong Securities before joining Guotai Junan [3] Group 2 - Xun Yugen emphasized a cautious investment approach, comparing the long-term performance of A-shares to other asset classes, noting an annualized return of 9.8% from 2005 to 2024, which is the highest among various asset classes [4] - He pointed out the high volatility of A-shares, indicating that while they have higher returns during bull markets, they also experience deeper declines during bear markets, suggesting a "tortoise" approach to investing [4]

Core Viewpoint - Liquidity is the core element of capital market operations, significantly influencing market cyclical fluctuations [1] - Systematic intervention by stabilizing funds can effectively halt negative feedback loops during extreme risk events, becoming a key force in stabilizing valuation systems [1] - Recent actions by stabilizing funds have successfully restored market sentiment in response to fluctuations in the overseas policy environment, demonstrating their importance in market defense [1] Group 1 - Stabilizing funds' operations provide valuable insights for ordinary investors, suggesting that replicating these strategies could yield substantial returns [1] - The article posits that this approach represents a "broad avenue" for A-share investment, indicating a potential strategy for investors to follow [1]