1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The war process remains the main trading line in the commodity market. The performance of various commodities next week is likely to be similar to this week, with energy and chemicals > agricultural products > black commodities > non - ferrous metals and precious metals. However, due to high war uncertainty, market volatility will remain high, and caution is needed when deploying unilateral strategies [2][17]. - Geopolitical risks will support energy prices such as crude oil. The war's spill - over effect will continue to support agricultural product prices. Chemical products will also benefit from the war. Black commodities face a contradiction between rising costs and weak downstream demand. Precious metals are short - term bearish and long - term bullish. Non - ferrous metals perform weakly overall, but some varieties will benefit from the war [17][18][19][20]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 One - Week Review: War Rhythm Repeated, Energy and Chemicals Continue to Lead - This week (03.09 - 03.15), commodities generally rose. In terms of sectors: energy > oil - based chemicals > coal - based chemicals > agricultural products > black commodities > non - ferrous metals > precious metals. The US - Iran war rhythm was repeated, but the conflict was intensifying overall. Oil prices rose significantly and spilled over to chemical products, coal, and the oilseed sector. Then, due to Trump's statement and market expectations, the commodity trend reversed. Finally, with Iran's tough attitude and Trump's shift to confrontation, energy and chemicals led the rise, while non - ferrous metals and precious metals were weak [1][11]. 3.1.2 Next - Week Outlook: War Drives Inflation, Energy and Chemicals Perform Well - The war - inflation - interest rate cut expectation remains the main focus of the market. Considering the tendency of war escalation, the performance of various commodities will probably be similar to this week. Geopolitical risks support energy prices. Chemical products benefit from the war. The war's spill - over effect supports agricultural product prices. Black commodities face cost - demand contradictions. Precious metals are short - term bearish and long - term bullish. Non - ferrous metals perform weakly, but some varieties benefit from the war [17][18][19][20]. 3.2 Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Data Tracking - The US dollar index strengthened, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose. As of March 14, the US dollar index rose 1.56% to 100.5040 compared to last weekend's close, and the 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.28%, up 13BP from last weekend. The Sino - US 10Y Treasury yield spread was inverted by 246.5BP. The market's focus was on the US - Iran war. Inflation expectations rose, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations were continuously revised downwards, leading to a stronger US dollar and weaker US Treasuries. The RMB had appreciation momentum, but the strong US dollar inhibited its appreciation [21][22]. 3.3 Upstream Raw Material Prices - The US - Iran war was intense this week, and the oil and gas transportation in the Strait of Hormuz was basically interrupted. Crude oil prices rose in significant fluctuations. Due to energy substitution, cost transmission, rising transportation costs, and increased market risk - aversion sentiment, coking coal prices also rose [30]. 3.4 Production - End High - Frequency Data - This week, production - end data showed differentiation. The daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines, the operating rates of automobile all - steel and semi - steel tires all seasonally rebounded. The production - end data of chemical products generally weakened. Methanol was mainly affected by seasonal maintenance, and PE, PTA, PVC and other varieties were greatly affected by rising upstream prices. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises also decreased [33]. 3.5 Inventory - End High - Frequency Data - Gold and silver inventories decreased slightly. Although the downstream restocking demand drove a slight reduction in the inventories of glass, soda ash and other commodities, most industrial product inventories were still significantly accumulating, and the inventory accumulation of some commodities exceeded the seasonal level. The demand recovery situation needs to be closely monitored [49]. 3.6 Demand - End High - Frequency Data - This week, the real - estate market data showed differentiation. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities and the transaction area of second - hand housing in 16 cities increased but did not significantly exceed the seasonal level. The listing volume of second - hand housing began to turn from a decline to an increase, and the listing price began to decline. The issuance and net financing scale of government bonds were 5675.45 billion yuan and - 2563.63 billion yuan respectively, and the net financing amount decreased significantly compared to the previous value. The subway passenger volume in the top ten cities, the apparent consumption of rebar, and the daily power consumption of power plants in 25 provinces all increased. Freight prices continued to rise, and the risk of weakening external demand needs to be vigilant [73][74]. 3.7 Key Commodity Basis The report provides data on the basis of key commodities such as gold, copper, aluminum, rebar, iron ore, coking coal, crude oil, methanol, PTA, PVC, pig, and soybean meal, but no specific analysis is given [88][89][91][93][94][95][97]. 3.8 Commodity Price Ratios The report provides data on commodity price ratios such as the gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio, gold - oil ratio, copper - oil ratio, copper - aluminum ratio, steel - ore ratio, agricultural - industrial ratio, and pig - grain ratio, but no specific analysis is given [98][99][102][103][107]. 3.9 Summary and Outlook The performance order of commodities is energy, chemicals > agricultural products > black commodities > non - ferrous metals, precious metals [3][107].