Core Viewpoint - The April EPMI (Emerging Industry PMI) decreased by 10.2 points to 49.4, marking the largest decline for this month since 2014, with the absolute level being the second lowest for the same period, only higher than April 2022 [1][6][5]. Summary by Sections EPMI Overview - The April EPMI stands at 49.4, down 10.2 points, indicating a significant contraction in emerging industries [6][5]. - Among seven major sub-industries, only three are in the expansion zone, a decrease of four from March [1][7]. Sub-Indicators Analysis - Production, product orders, and export orders fell by 16.1, 15.4, and 17.6 points respectively, with export orders dropping below 40 [2][7]. - The production-to-demand ratio is at 2.6, better than the averages for 2023 and 2024 [2][7]. - Price indicators have also declined, with purchase prices and sales prices down by 4.8 and 4.4 points respectively [2][8]. - Employment indicators fell by 5.9 points, the largest monthly decline in 2023, with foreign trade estimated to support around 170 million jobs, accounting for 24% of total employment [2][7]. - Loan difficulty decreased by 3.3 points, indicating a more relaxed monetary policy environment [2][9]. Manufacturing PMI Outlook - The manufacturing PMI is likely to slow down in April, typically a peak season for industry, but historically shows a slight decline compared to March [3][9]. - High-frequency data indicates a slowdown in industries related to external demand, while domestic demand sectors like steel and coke show stronger operating rates [3][10]. Sector Performance - The energy-saving and environmental protection, as well as the biotechnology sectors, experienced relatively smaller declines, indicating their lower correlation with external demand [3][10]. - The new generation information technology, new energy vehicles, and new energy sectors are leading with a prosperity index above 50, driven by trends in artificial intelligence and supportive policies [3][11]. Policy Response - The EPMI data reflects external demand impacts, prompting policy attention, with the State Council emphasizing the need for counter-cyclical adjustments [4][12]. - A special long-term bond issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan is set to accelerate fiscal progress, with expectations for policy measures to stabilize growth in the upcoming months [4][12].