[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 25 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 2 月 EPMI 数据带来哪些增量信息 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 分析师： 王丹 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 SAC 执证号：S0260521040001 021-38003572 guolei@gf.com.cn bjwangdan@gf.com.cn 请注意，王丹并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 2 月战略性新兴产业采购经理人指数（EPMI）环比下降 5.4 个点至 44.6。春节所在月份的季节性是 EPMI 下行 的主要原因，与历史上春节位于 2 月中旬的年份相比，今年 EPMI 环比降幅小于 2021 年、基本持平于 2024 年、弱于 2015 和 2018 年的环比小幅上行。中观景气面同样回落，7 大细分行业中仅新能源行业位于景气扩张 区间。 据中采咨询（下同），2 月战略性新兴产业采购经理人指数（EPMI）环 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Biotech Economy Index (970038) experienced a decline of 2.99%, closing at 2139.16 points on February 2, with a total trading volume of 26.538 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 2.97% [1] Group 1: Index Performance - On the day, only 2 out of the index's constituent stocks rose, with Aimeike leading the gain at 1.01%, while 48 stocks fell, with Dabeinong leading the decline at 10.02% [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The net outflow of main funds from the Biotech Economy Index constituents totaled 1.249 billion yuan, while the net inflow from speculative funds was 262 million yuan, and the net inflow from retail investors was 988 million yuan [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - In January, the manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 points to 49.3, primarily due to seasonal factors and a significant drop in consumer goods and high-energy industries, which fell by 2.1 and 1.0 points respectively[2] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 52.0, down 0.5 points, while equipment manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.3 points to 50.1[2] - The consumer goods and high-energy industries recorded PMIs of 48.3 and 47.9, reflecting declines of 2.1 and 1.0 points respectively[2] Group 2: Industry Performance Insights - The automotive sector saw a significant decline, with retail sales of passenger cars dropping by 37% in January compared to the same period last year[2] - Brent crude oil prices rose from $61 per barrel at the end of 2025 to $71 per barrel by the end of January 2026, impacting the petrochemical and chemical industries negatively[2] - The non-ferrous and black metal sectors experienced increases of 4.0 and 2.0 points respectively, driven by global pricing expectations and pre-season stockpiling[2] Group 3: Emerging Industries and Construction Sector - Emerging industries such as biotechnology, new energy vehicles, and next-generation information technology continue to lead in performance, with biotechnology remaining above 60 in the high prosperity range[5] - The construction sector's PMI fell by 4.0 points to 48.8, exceeding seasonal declines observed in previous years[6] - New orders in the construction sector decreased by 7.3 points, indicating a slowdown in demand[8] Group 4: Service Sector Trends - The service sector PMI slightly decreased by 0.2 points to 49.5, remaining in the contraction zone for three consecutive months[10] - Financial services, including monetary finance and capital market services, maintained high activity levels, with indices above 65[10] - The transportation and information services sectors saw declines in their PMIs, while residential services experienced a slight increase of 1.6 points[10]

Core Insights - The report by Zhongzhi Consulting focuses on the strategic layout and development models of central enterprises controlling A-share listed companies in emerging industries, providing a systematic analysis of the layout logic and development paths of strategic emerging industries [1][12]. Group 1: Overview of Central Enterprises in Emerging Industries - Among 402 central enterprises controlling A-share listed companies, 64% can be classified as emerging industry enterprises, with nearly 80% concentrated in five key areas: new generation information technology, new materials, high-end equipment manufacturing, new energy, and biotechnology [1][18]. - The report highlights a significant underinvestment in critical areas such as industrial mother machines and chips, indicating a need for increased focus and resources in these sectors [1][18]. Group 2: Industry-Specific Analysis - The report emphasizes that over 40% of manufacturing emerging enterprises are transitioning towards new materials and high-end equipment manufacturing, showcasing significant industrial synergy effects [1][20]. - In terms of profitability, emerging industry enterprises contribute 26% of total operating revenue and 31.27% of total profit, with new generation information technology, new energy, and new materials showing particularly strong profitability [1][23]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning and Implementation Paths - The report identifies four business layout models: core business extension, establishment of emerging platforms, equity cooperation, and fund investment, which enterprises can combine based on their specific circumstances [2]. - It suggests a systematic cultivation framework of "assessment-layout-empowerment," advocating for a full-cycle evaluation mechanism and a tailored approach for each enterprise to optimize resource allocation and enhance competitiveness in emerging industries [2].

Core Insights - The first batch of "Technology New Dragons" in Zhejiang Province was announced, consisting of 96 companies selected from nearly 400 candidates across 11 cities, with Hangzhou having the highest representation [1][3] - The selected companies span multiple strategic fields, including new generation information technology, biotechnology, new materials, new energy, and bionic robotics, showcasing a strong focus on high-tech industries [3][4] - The selection criteria for these companies included being established for more than 3 years but less than 10 years, having a high-level talent R&D team, and meeting specific R&D investment thresholds [3][4] Industry Distribution - Among the selected companies, 43 are in the new generation information technology sector, making it the core strength of the "New Dragons" group, while 18 are in biotechnology and 12 in new materials, indicating a robust presence in advanced industries [3][4] - The initiative reflects Zhejiang's commitment to fostering innovation and high-tech industries, aligning with its "315" technology innovation system and "415X" advanced manufacturing cluster development goals [4][5] Support Measures - A "Technology New Dragon Enterprise Support Action" was launched to empower the growth of these companies, featuring ten measures focused on resource support, ecosystem integration, and service assurance [3][4] - The province aims to establish a "service consortium" to address operational challenges and innovation needs by involving experts from various fields [4]

Core Insights - The Zhejiang Province held a conference on January 28 to announce the first batch of 96 "Technology New Dragons" companies, marking a significant step in fostering innovative forces in the region [1][3][11] Group 1: Announcement of "Technology New Dragons" - A total of 96 companies were selected from nearly 400 candidates across 11 cities in Zhejiang, with over half of the selected companies located in Hangzhou, the core area for digital economy and innovation resources [4][15] - The selected companies span various strategic fields, including new generation information technology (43 companies), biotechnology (18 companies), new materials (12 companies), and others, showcasing a diverse and high-potential technological landscape [4][15] - To qualify, companies must have been registered for more than three years but less than ten, have a high-level talent R&D team, and invest at least 10% of their revenue in R&D or a minimum of 10 million yuan annually [4][15] Group 2: Support Measures for "Technology New Dragons" - The "Technology New Dragon Enterprise Support Action" was launched to enhance the innovation capabilities of these companies, with ten specific measures introduced by eight relevant organizations [5][16] - Key support areas include establishing a response mechanism for corporate needs, enhancing financial support with diverse credit products, and optimizing talent services for core R&D and management personnel [7][18] - The initiative aims to foster collaboration within the industrial chain, promote resource sharing among high-energy platforms, and support cross-regional innovation cooperation [8][19] Group 3: Innovation and Growth Metrics - The conference also unveiled the 2025 list of high-growth enterprises and the top 100 innovative enterprises in Zhejiang, reinforcing the province's commitment to innovation as a driving force for development [9][20] - The selection criteria for these lists focus on breakthroughs in core technologies, industry leadership potential, and high growth, reflecting the vibrant innovation ecosystem in Zhejiang [9][20]

Group 1: EPMI Overview - In January 2026, the Strategic Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers' Index (EPMI) increased by 0.9 points to 50.0, aligning with seasonal trends observed in previous years[3] - Historical data shows that in years with a late Spring Festival, the average EPMI change in January is an increase of 0.8 points, with 2015 showing a decrease of 1.5 points, while 2018 and 2024 showed increases of 2.8 and 1.0 points respectively[3] Group 2: Industry Performance - Among the seven sub-sectors of strategic emerging industries, three are in the expansion zone, consistent with November and December 2025[4] - Key indicators such as production volume, product orders, and export orders improved by 1.6, 1.5, and 1.0 points respectively in January 2026[4] - The production-demand ratio increased to 4.9, up from 4.8, indicating a positive outlook for demand post-holiday[5] Group 3: Price and Loan Indicators - In January 2026, purchase prices rose by 0.4 points and sales prices by 0.3 points, continuing an upward trend since July 2025[5] - The difficulty of obtaining loans increased by 0.4 points, marking a two-month recovery, potentially linked to liquidity conditions in early January[5] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The biotechnology, new energy vehicles, and next-generation information technology sectors are leading in terms of economic performance, with biotechnology remaining above 60 in the high prosperity zone[6] - Compared to December 2025, the biotechnology sector increased by 1.2 points, while other sectors saw increases between 0.7 and 1.0 points[7] Group 5: Manufacturing PMI Expectations - Seasonal patterns suggest that the manufacturing PMI may experience slight declines in January, as seen in previous years, with an average decrease of 0.13 points historically[7] - High-frequency data indicates mixed performance in traditional industries, with some sectors like steel showing increased operational rates while others like automotive parts declined[8]

Core Viewpoint - The Strategic Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers' Index (EPMI) for January 2026 increased by 0.9 points to 50.0, indicating stable mid-level economic conditions with three out of seven sub-industries in the expansion zone, consistent with seasonal trends observed in previous years [1][5][6]. Sub-item Summaries - **Production and Demand Indicators**: In January, production volume, product orders, and export orders increased by 1.6, 1.5, and 1.0 points respectively. The production-to-demand ratio has risen for three consecutive months, suggesting positive demand expectations among emerging enterprises [2][10]. - **Price Signals**: Purchase prices and sales prices increased by 0.4 and 0.3 points respectively. The sales price index has been on an upward trend since July 2025, with only a brief decline in November 2025 [2][11]. - **Loan Difficulty Indicator**: The loan difficulty index rose by 0.4 points, marking a two-month recovery, potentially linked to liquidity conditions in early January [2][11]. Industry Analysis - **Leading Industries**: The biotechnology, new energy vehicles, and next-generation information technology sectors have maintained high levels of prosperity since October 2025. The biotechnology sector is driven by a surge in patent applications, while the new energy vehicle sector benefits from both domestic and export growth [3][13]. - **Weak Industries**: High-end equipment manufacturing, new materials, and energy conservation sectors have shown weaker performance, remaining in the contraction zone for three consecutive months [3][13]. Manufacturing PMI Expectations - Historical data suggests that the manufacturing PMI typically experiences slight declines in January during years with late Spring Festival dates. The impact of strong exports and concentrated fiscal policies in the previous quarter on January's production preparations remains to be observed [4][17]. Economic Data Overview - The high-frequency data for January appears stable, with strong port data and weak construction and real estate data. Hard data is expected to show decent year-on-year performance due to the timing of the Spring Festival, with results to be published in March [4][21].

Investment Trends - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period emphasizes investment in traditional industries focusing on high-end, intelligent, green, and integrated development, with a strong push for technological innovation and transformation[7] - Manufacturing investment growth rates from 2021 to 2024 are projected at 13.5%, 9.1%, 6.5%, and 9.2% respectively, indicating a robust investment environment despite external pressures[17] - In 2025, manufacturing investment growth slowed to 1.9%, a decline of 7.3 percentage points from 2024, highlighting a potential downturn in investment momentum[26] Structural Challenges - Investment efficiency has declined, with the incremental capital output ratio (ICOR) rising to approximately 14.9 from 13.1, indicating increased investment required for each unit of output[32] - The capacity utilization rate for major industrial enterprises was 74.6% in Q3 2025, reflecting a 0.5 percentage point decrease year-on-year, suggesting underutilization of resources[30] - Investment in high-tech manufacturing has significantly slowed, with growth rates dropping below overall manufacturing investment in 2024, indicating structural weaknesses in emerging sectors[32] Strategic Recommendations - Establish a dynamic identification system for investment directions aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan" to enhance investment effectiveness and adaptability[9] - Focus on four key investment areas: upgrading traditional industries, fostering emerging industries, planning for future industries, and optimizing supply in weak links[44] - Emphasize the importance of human capital alongside material capital in investment strategies to enhance overall economic returns[41]

Core Viewpoint - The development of strategic emerging industries is essential for enhancing international competitiveness and achieving proactive development amidst global economic challenges and uncertainties. Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are increasingly recognized as a means to optimize the layout of these industries, emphasizing the importance of quality and effectiveness in M&A processes [1][4]. Group 1: Current Status of Strategic Emerging Industries - The number of enterprises in strategic emerging industries in China has significantly increased, with 96,000 large-scale industrial enterprises engaged in this sector by the end of 2023, accounting for 19.5% of all large-scale industrial enterprises. Including smaller enterprises, the total exceeds 2 million, surpassing traditional manufacturing [2]. - By the end of 2024, 66 national industrial clusters have formed across nine major fields, including information technology and biomedicine, with notable regional advantages in areas like the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta [2]. - In terms of revenue, the leading sectors in strategic emerging industries include new-generation information technology, new energy, and high-end equipment manufacturing, which together account for 85% of total revenue in this sector [2]. Group 2: Challenges Facing Strategic Emerging Industries - The current industrial layout is fragmented, with a low proportion of revenue from strategic emerging industries relative to total A-share company revenue, indicating a need for stronger economic impact [3]. - Innovation capabilities are lacking, with many enterprises not mastering key technologies, leading to reliance on imports for critical materials and components [3]. - There is a structural imbalance in talent supply, with existing talent not aligning well with the needs of strategic emerging technologies, and a lack of effective talent incentive mechanisms [3]. Group 3: Role of Mergers and Acquisitions in Enhancing Investment Efficiency - M&A can optimize resource allocation by integrating production equipment, human resources, and technology, thus enhancing investment efficiency and avoiding resource wastage [4][5]. - The realization of synergies through M&A can lead to improved operational efficiency, reduced costs, and increased revenues, thereby enhancing overall investment efficiency [6][7]. - M&A can also expand market share by consolidating supply chains and production processes, allowing companies to gain stronger bargaining power and improve investment returns [7]. Group 4: Recommendations for Enhancing Investment Efficiency in Strategic Emerging Industries - Companies should carefully plan and define goals for the development of strategic emerging industries, focusing on high-quality M&A targets that possess core technologies and are positioned in critical segments of the supply chain [8]. - There is a need to cultivate key enterprises within strategic emerging industries to enhance industry concentration and scale efficiency, leveraging both independent R&D and M&A strategies [9]. - Continuous resource integration post-M&A is crucial for maximizing the benefits of synergies and enhancing the overall value of enterprises within strategic emerging industries [10]. - A focus on cultural integration and talent incentive mechanisms is necessary to align employee goals with corporate objectives, fostering innovation and collaboration [11].