广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 11 月战略性新兴产业采购经理人指数（ EPMI ）环比回落 7.0 个点至 52.7 。 2014-2024 年 11 月环比平均降幅为 3.0 个点，本月降幅大于季 节性，我们理解与 10 月数据的跳升有关。 10 月一度环比大幅上行 7.3 个点， 10-11 月相当于完成一个倒 V 型波动。从绝对景气度相对于历史同期均值 的位置看， 10 月与 9 月大致相当，略好于 6-8 月（图 1 ）。 正文 11 月战略性新兴产业采购经理人指数（ EPMI ）环比回落 7.0 个点至 52.7 。 2014-2024 年 11 月环比平均降幅为 3.0 个点，本月降幅大于季节性，我 们理解与 10 月数据的跳升有关。 10 月一度环比大幅上行 7.3 个点， 10-11 月相当于完成一个倒 V 型波动。从绝对景气度相对于历史同期均值的位置 看， 10 月与 9 月大致相当，略好于 6-8 月（图 1 ）。 第二， 考虑到 10 月跳升、 11 月跳降的波动，与 10 月相比意义不大。如果与 9 月相比（图 ...

（原标题：哥伦比亚媒体呼吁中哥加强生物科技合作） 据哥伦比亚《证券报》11月13日报道，哥凭借独特的生物多样性和逾3300 个成熟科研团队，具备发展生物经济的关键基础。然而，本土创新仍面临"能 研究、难规模化"的瓶颈，科研成果多停留在论文与展示阶段，难以转化为产 业和出口。在全球生物产业加速布局之际，中国正成为生物制造的重要中心， 其优势不仅在于成本，更体现在规模化生产、资本投入及完善的实验室—工厂 —认证体系，这正是哥所缺乏的环节。业内认为，哥生物资源与科研能力与中 国的产业化与技术转移优势高度互补。哥应与中国推动以产业化为导向的合 作，建立涵盖知识产权共享、技术培训、本地化生产等明确规则，并强化治 理、谈判和监管能力，以确保合作可持续。专家指出，哥正处于从"展示型创 新"迈向"产业化创新"的关键阶段，应抓住与中国深化合作的机会，构筑生物 产业竞争优势。 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the development of a billion-level "Northern Bio Valley" in Dezhou, focusing on the growth and innovation in the biotechnology industry [1][3][6] Industry Overview - Dezhou is concentrating on five key areas within the biotechnology sector: biomanufacturing, biopharmaceuticals, bio-agriculture, biomedical engineering, and biomass energy [3] - The city has established a clear layout and strong innovation initiatives to promote high-end, clustered, and international development of the industry [3] Current Developments - The biomanufacturing industry in Dezhou has seen significant growth, with 153 enterprises in the sector and projected revenue of 40.4 billion yuan in 2024 [3] - Eight companies in the biotechnology sector have achieved over 1 billion yuan in output value, while 41 companies have surpassed 100 million yuan [3] Innovation and Collaboration - Innovation is identified as the core driver for overcoming challenges and seizing development opportunities in the biotechnology industry [4] - Dezhou has established numerous national and provincial innovation platforms and maintains long-term collaborations with over 40 universities and research institutions [4] Product Development - Companies like Baolingbao Biological Co., Ltd. are developing new products such as erythritol, with a production capacity of 30,000 tons per year, and exporting to over 70 countries [4] Strategic Initiatives - Dezhou is implementing mechanisms for regular roadshows and results transformation to connect investors, entrepreneurs, and industry experts [5] - The city is also exploring the establishment of a specialized fund for the biotechnology industry and has formed an association for high-quality development in the sector [5] Future Outlook - Dezhou aims to focus on cutting-edge areas such as synthetic biology, gene cell therapy, and AI pharmaceuticals, while continuing to optimize its industrial layout and attract leading enterprises [6]

Core Viewpoint - The October EPMI (Emerging Industry Purchasing Managers Index) significantly increased by 7.3 points to 59.7, marking the largest historical rise for this month, driven by seasonal factors and improved economic conditions in various sectors [1][6][7]. Group 1: EPMI Overview - The October EPMI reached 59.7, which is above the seasonal average and indicates a recovery in economic sentiment [1][8]. - The historical average for October EPMI from 2014 to 2024 is 58.2, with this month's value exceeding the seasonal mean by 1.5 points [8][9]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Indicators - Key indicators for production, product orders, and export orders rose by 11.7, 12.9, and 8.3 points respectively in October [2][11]. - The supply-demand ratio turned negative at -0.5, indicating that new orders are outpacing production [2][12]. - Price indicators for purchases and sales increased by 3.3 and 3.5 points respectively, contributing to a 9.6-point rise in profit indicators [2][13]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The sectors of new generation information technology, new energy vehicles, and biotechnology showed significant growth, with increases of 14.9, 12.2, and 8.9 points respectively [3][18]. - Export orders for biotechnology, new generation information technology, and new energy vehicles rose by over 10 points, with biotechnology exports recovering to above 70 [3][19]. - The new energy sector saw a 6.6-point increase, likely influenced by positive price changes [3][20]. Group 4: Economic Context - The third quarter GDP growth slowed to 4.8% from 5.3% in the first half of the year, with production showing signs of recovery in October [5][27]. - The upcoming PMI data is expected to reflect a typical seasonal decline, but the EPMI's rise suggests underlying economic support [4][23].

Core Viewpoint - The September EPMI (Emerging Industry Purchasing Managers Index) increased by 4.6 points to 52.4, indicating a seasonal recovery typical of autumn, although the absolute level remains historically low [1][6][24]. Group 1: EPMI and Industry Trends - The EPMI's increase aligns with the seasonal average of 4.5 points from 2014 to 2024, with the number of industries in the expansion zone rising from 2 to 4 [1][6][7]. - Despite the improvement, the absolute EPMI value of 52.4 is the second lowest for September in history, down 0.9 points from the previous year [6][24]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Indicators - Key supply and demand indicators showed improvement: production volume, product orders, and export orders increased by 7.8, 6.5, and 6.8 points respectively [2][9]. - The production-to-demand ratio turned positive, with an average of 0.7 for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating an improvement in supply-demand balance compared to previous years [9][10]. - Price indicators also improved, with purchase prices and sales prices rising by 0.8 and 0.2 points respectively, although the growth rate has slowed compared to July and August [9][12]. Group 3: Employment and Financing Environment - The EPMI loan difficulty index decreased by 0.9 points, suggesting a more favorable financing environment for emerging enterprises due to increased credit support and coordinated fiscal and monetary policies [15][16]. - Employment indicators have shown a two-month recovery, with a 2.6-point increase in September, indicating stronger demand for jobs in new industries during the graduation season [15][16]. Group 4: Sector Performance - In September, the highest absolute economic performance was observed in the new generation information technology and energy-saving environmental sectors, driven by demand growth related to AI computing power and domestic substitution [19][20]. - The new energy vehicle sector also saw a month-on-month increase in economic performance, with retail sales growing by 6% year-on-year and 10% month-on-month [19][20]. - The performance of traditional sectors varied, with some industries like petroleum asphalt and automotive tires showing increased operating rates, while others like high furnace and PVC saw declines [23][24]. Group 5: Economic Outlook - The third quarter has shown signs of continued economic slowdown, with September data being crucial for short-term economic assessment [24]. - The EPMI data suggests a neutral economic outlook, with seasonal recovery not extending the trends observed in July and August, indicating that achieving annual growth targets will require further policy support [24].

Core Insights - The 17th China Bio-Industry Conference opened on September 4, focusing on "Biotechnology Empowering the Future, Biomanufacturing Reshaping the World" with an emphasis on "high-end, professional, international, and market-oriented" approaches [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The conference showcased numerous well-known companies presenting cutting-edge technologies, products, and applications, highlighting the latest advancements in the global bio-industry [1] Group 2: Exhibitor Highlights - BGI Genomics displayed tissue slices applied in spatiotemporal chips [3] - The Optics Brain-Computer Interface and near-infrared brain function imaging device from the Optics Valley Biocity exhibition area attracted significant attention from foreign guests [4] - United Imaging Healthcare presented a 5T magnetic resonance imaging system [6] - Heyuan Bio showcased recombinant human albumin injection (from rice) [7]

Core Insights - The 17th China Bio-Industry Conference was held in Wuhan, focusing on the theme "Biotechnology Empowering the Future, Biomanufacturing Reshaping the World" to showcase advancements in China's bio-economy and biomanufacturing [1][2] - The conference included a combination of forums, exhibitions, and competitions, promoting deep integration of industry, academia, and research [2][3] Group 1: Conference Highlights - The conference featured a high-level forum with experts sharing cutting-edge research and industry experiences, including a presentation on "Synthetic Biology Driving Biomanufacturing Innovation" [1][2] - A report titled "China Bio-Economy Development Report 2025" was released, analyzing the current state, challenges, and future pathways of China's bio-economy [1] - The event included over ten specialized sub-forums covering topics such as synthetic biology, biomedicine, brain-computer interfaces, and traditional Chinese medicine innovation [2] Group 2: Exhibition and Competition - The exhibition utilized a hybrid model, showcasing over 1,000 exhibits from more than 200 companies and institutions across a 10,000 square meter area [2][3] - The "2025 Biomanufacturing Innovation and Entrepreneurship Competition" was held, focusing on original innovation and technological breakthroughs, with participation from hundreds of projects across 23 countries [3] - The competition awarded 20 projects, with Hangzhou Derui Zhiyao Technology Co., Ltd. winning for its "Industrial-Grade One-Stop AI Pharmaceutical Platform" [3]

Core Insights - The rapid expansion of companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) has accelerated capital flow into strategic emerging industries, supporting high-level technological self-reliance [1][2] - As of the end of May, 528 companies have raised a total of 822.36 billion yuan through IPOs, with an average fundraising of 155.8 million yuan per company, primarily in new generation information technology, biotechnology, and high-end equipment manufacturing [1][4] Group 1: Regional Analysis - The Yangtze River Delta region has consistently led in the number of IPOs since the STAR Market's inception, with 252 companies from this region, accounting for 47.73% of the total [2][3] - The top five provinces for IPOs include Jiangsu (102), Shanghai (82), Guangdong (81), Beijing (71), and Zhejiang (46), collectively representing 72.35% of the total [2][3] - Jiangsu's economic development level, supportive industrial policies, and talent influx contribute significantly to its leading position in the number of listed companies [2][3] Group 2: Listing Standards and Company Types - The STAR Market allows unprofitable companies to list, with diverse standards catering to different types of enterprises, enabling a range of high-quality companies to raise funds [4][5] - As of the end of May, 51 companies listed without profitability, with 16 of them meeting the fifth set of listing standards, which do not impose financial metrics [4][5] - The fifth set of standards is particularly tailored for unprofitable hard-tech companies, especially in the medical sector, reflecting national policy support for medical innovation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The EPMI (Emerging Industry Purchasing Managers Index) for August shows a slight month-on-month increase of 1.0 points, indicating a stabilization in economic activity despite remaining at a historically low level of 47.8, the lowest for August since 2014 [1][6][8]. Summary by Sections EPMI Overview - The EPMI increased by 1.0 points in August, aligning closely with the seasonal average increase of 1.1 points [7]. - The absolute index value of 47.8 is 1.0 points lower than the same month last year, marking the lowest level recorded for August since data collection began in 2014 [8][9]. Demand and Production Indicators - Demand indicators showed slight improvement, with product orders and export orders rising by 2.5 and 2.8 points respectively, while production indicators fell by 0.3 points [10]. - The production-to-order ratio turned negative at -0.6, indicating a better alignment between supply and demand [10]. - Supply contraction led to price increases, with purchase prices rising by 5.3 points and sales prices by 1.5 points [12]. - The difficulty of obtaining loans in emerging industries increased by 2.6 points, reflecting a tightening financing environment [12]. Sector Performance - The sectors of new energy and energy conservation are leading in terms of absolute economic performance, with significant price increases in the new energy vehicle, new energy, and biological industries [14]. - In August, new energy and energy conservation were the only two sectors in the expansion zone, likely influenced by accelerated fiscal funding and seasonal factors [14]. - Price increases in the new energy vehicle sector were notable, with sales prices rising by 4.6 points, indicating effective price management in larger enterprises [14][17]. High-Frequency Data Insights - High-frequency data from early to mid-August showed resilience in exports, production constraints, and strong pricing [18]. - Traditional industries experienced a decline in operating rates due to "anti-involution" effects, with specific declines noted in the automotive tire sector [18]. - Overall, manufacturing PMI is expected to show little change compared to July [18].

Group 1 - The core industries in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board are characterized by hard technology, with the electronic core industry (44.07%), biopharmaceutical industry (15.92%), and intelligent manufacturing equipment industry (9.15%) being the top three by market capitalization [1] - The demand for high-performance computing is resonating with the penetration of AI from the cloud to the edge, leading to an accelerated price increase in DDR4 and triggering a server upgrade cycle [1] - The innovative drug industry is expected to achieve breakthroughs through License-out overseas, with a projected transaction scale of $51.9 billion in 2024, indicating a continuous growth trend [1] Group 2 - Revenue growth rates for the electronic core industry, artificial intelligence industry, and biopharmaceutical industry in 2024 are projected to be 17.39%, 28.44%, and 32.36% respectively, with significant profit expectations for the biopharmaceutical industry [1] - The R&D intensity of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board remains stable at around 11%, with total R&D investment expected to reach 154.68 billion yuan in 2024, fostering a virtuous cycle of R&D-driven growth [1] Group 3 - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 ETF (588120) tracks the Sci-Tech 100 Index (000698), which can have a daily price fluctuation of up to 20%. This index is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd. and includes 100 securities with moderate market capitalization and good liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of outstanding growth enterprises in high-tech and strategic emerging industries [1] - The Sci-Tech Comprehensive Index ETF (589630) tracks the Sci-Tech Comprehensive Index (000680), also allowing for a daily price fluctuation of up to 20%. This index, published by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, selects all eligible listed companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board to reflect the overall market performance [2]