Market Overview - The A-share market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations and consolidation, with a focus on stocks that exceed performance expectations [2][4][8] - Recent trading volumes have remained around 2 trillion, indicating a slowdown in the influx of new capital, which may prolong the market's oscillation cycle [3][10] - The three major indices showed a clear trend of fluctuation and retreat, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3891.86 points, down 0.80% [6][10] Sector Performance - The banking sector showed resilience, supporting the index despite a general market downturn, as high-dividend stocks are valuable in a low-interest environment [7] - The transportation equipment sector, particularly rail transport, saw gains due to significant infrastructure projects, with total investments exceeding 500 billion [7] - Conversely, sectors such as coal, wind power equipment, and battery materials experienced declines, reflecting a broader market sentiment that is currently low [5][6] Economic Indicators - The latest manufacturing PMI data has returned to the expansion zone, ending two months of contraction, which has positively impacted market sentiment [4][8] - The current period is characterized by the release of annual and quarterly reports, with stocks that report better-than-expected earnings likely to attract capital and drive market recovery [4][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recovery signals in the Chinese economy post-Spring Festival, with key indicators such as the manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing business activity index returning to expansion territory, indicating improved economic confidence and activity levels [3][5]. Manufacturing Sector Recovery - In March, the manufacturing new orders index rose to 51.6%, up 3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to expansion after two months below 50% [5]. - The new export orders index improved significantly to 49.1%, an increase of 4.1 percentage points, reflecting better external demand [5]. - The production index for manufacturing rose to 51.4%, up 1.8 percentage points, signaling a steady recovery in production as companies resumed operations post-holiday [5]. - Employment in the equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors showed improvement, with indices rising to near 50%, indicating stabilization in new growth sectors [6]. - The production expectations index for March was 53.4%, suggesting increased confidence among manufacturing firms regarding market developments [6]. Price Dynamics and Material Costs - The purchasing volume index rose to 50.9%, indicating expansion in raw material procurement activities, while the purchasing price index surged to 63.9%, reflecting a significant increase in raw material prices [7]. - The ex-factory price index reached 55.4%, marking a new high since April 2022, driven by rising demand and material costs [7]. - The rapid increase in basic raw material prices, with the purchasing price index exceeding 70%, has led to higher costs for downstream manufacturing sectors [8]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has contributed to rising costs in oil and chemical sectors, impacting overall manufacturing costs and potentially affecting production rhythms [9]. Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index for March was 50.1%, reflecting a slight increase, with construction and service sectors showing varied performance [11]. - The construction activity index rose to 49.3%, indicating a slight recovery post-Spring Festival, while service-related sectors faced challenges due to rising costs from geopolitical tensions [12]. - The retail, accommodation, and catering sectors experienced a decline in activity levels, suggesting a need for further monitoring of consumer demand recovery [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar weakened in a volatile manner, with a daily decline of 0.48%. During the roll - over period, both trading volume and open interest contracted. Currently, rebar supply is shrinking, while demand is seasonally improving, leading to marginal improvement in the fundamental situation. Coupled with cost support, steel prices have returned to the upper edge of the volatile range. However, the strength of peak - season demand is in doubt, and the upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend will mainly be volatile, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.33%. During the roll - over period, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. At present, the fundamental situation of hot - rolled coil has improved under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. Coupled with cost support, the price has returned to the upper edge of the range. However, demand concerns remain, and the high - inventory situation limits the upward driving force. The subsequent trend will maintain a volatile operation, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore declined in a volatile manner, with a daily decline of 0.80%. During the roll - over period, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. Currently, supply disruptions support the high - level operation of iron ore prices, but the room for demand growth is limited, and there is no substantial improvement in the iron ore fundamental situation. The over - valued iron ore price continues to face pressure. It is expected that iron ore prices will maintain a high - level volatile operation, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel prices [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Recently, three Chinese vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz, and China called for a cease - fire and the restoration of peace and stability in the Gulf region [7]. - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing industry's prosperity level [8]. - Rio Tinto's iron ore port operations in Western Australia have fully resumed. The company expects to make up for half of the approximately 8 million tons of iron ore shipment volume affected by cyclones, and its 2026 Pilbara iron ore shipment guidance remains at 323 - 338 million tons [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price is 3,190 yuan, down 10 yuan; the Tianjin price is 3,200 yuan, down 10 yuan; and the national average price is 3,333 yuan, down 3 yuan. For hot - rolled coil, the Shanghai price is 3,280 yuan, down 10 yuan; the Tianjin price is 3,220 yuan, down 10 yuan; and the national average price is 3,328 yuan, down 2 yuan. The price of Tangshan steel billet remains unchanged at 2,980 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap remains unchanged at 2,180 yuan. The volume - screw price difference is 90 yuan, and the screw - scrap price difference is 1,010 yuan, down 10 yuan [10]. - The price of PB powder at Shandong ports is 775 yuan, down 10 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 772 yuan, unchanged. The Australian freight is 10.93 yuan, up 0.17 yuan; the Brazilian freight is 30.56 yuan, down 0.10 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) is 106.39 yuan, up 0.04 yuan. The iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) is 108.50 yuan, up 0.40 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,121 yuan, with a decline of 0.48%. The trading volume is 477,403 lots, a decrease of 139,352 lots, and the open interest is 901,052 lots, a decrease of 75,389 lots [12]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract is 3,294 yuan, with a decline of 0.33%. The trading volume is 310,343 lots, an increase of 27,129 lots, and the open interest is 773,076 lots, a decrease of 73,740 lots [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 808.0 yuan, with a decline of 0.80%. The trading volume is 158,111 lots, an increase of 15,153 lots, and the open interest is 353,624 lots, a decrease of 17,797 lots [12]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report presents charts related to steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory changes and total inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventory), and steel - mill production conditions (including 247 - sample - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 94 - independent - electric - furnace - steel - mill operating rate, and profit situation) [14][22][30] 3.5后市研判 (Outlook for the Future) - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern has improved, inventory is continuously decreasing, and the weekly output has decreased by 5.460,000 tons. Demand is seasonally improving, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 17.280,000 tons. However, the strength of future demand improvement is in doubt. The subsequent trend will mainly be volatile, and attention should be paid to demand performance [39]. - For hot - rolled coil, both supply and demand continue to rise. The weekly output has increased by 5.400,000 tons, and the inventory level is still high. Demand has some resilience, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 3.120,000 tons. However, there are still concerns about demand. The subsequent trend will maintain a volatile operation, and attention should be paid to demand performance [39]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has improved, and the terminal consumption of iron ore is rising seasonally. However, the room for future demand growth needs further observation. Supply is running smoothly. It is expected that iron ore prices will maintain a high - level volatile operation, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel prices [40].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In March 2026, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from February, indicating a return to the expansion zone[2] - The production index accelerated by 1.8 percentage points to 51.4%, while the new orders index surged by 3.0 percentage points to 51.6%[3] - The rebound in manufacturing PMI is attributed to seasonal factors, with historical data showing an average rebound of 0.9 percentage points in the month following the Spring Festival[3] Group 2: Export and Economic Policy Impact - The new export orders index increased by 4.1 percentage points to 49.1%, contributing significantly to the rise in new orders[4] - The government's macroeconomic policy remains proactive, with infrastructure investment growth significantly accelerating, supporting the improvement in manufacturing sentiment[4] - Despite the positive trends, uncertainties from the Middle East and ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector may negatively impact domestic manufacturing operations[5] Group 3: Price Indices and Future Outlook - The ex-factory price index rose by 4.8 percentage points to 55.4%, while the main raw material purchase price index surged by 9.1 percentage points to 63.9%[5] - The manufacturing PMI is expected to decline to around 49.8% in April, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, following the typical seasonal pattern[7] - The ongoing Middle East situation and its impact on global economic conditions may further influence domestic manufacturing and export resilience[8]

Key Points Summary Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for March rose to 50.4%, indicating a return to the expansion zone after a month in contraction, with a 1.4 percentage point increase from the previous month [2] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.6%, while medium and small enterprises showed PMIs of 49.0% and 49.3%, respectively, with small enterprises experiencing the most significant rebound of 4.0 percentage points [2] Group 2: Price Adjustments - Kweichow Moutai announced a price increase for its core product, with the ex-factory price rising from 1169 yuan to 1269 yuan per bottle, an increase of approximately 8.55%, and the retail price from 1499 yuan to 1539 yuan, an increase of about 2.67% [3] - Multiple electric two-wheeler brands plan to raise prices by 200 to 300 yuan starting in April due to significant increases in raw material costs, particularly lithium battery components, which account for 40%-55% of the vehicle's cost [7] Group 3: Technological Developments - The successful launch of the Lijian No. 2 rocket marks a significant breakthrough in China's commercial space sector, with a payload capacity of 12 tons to low Earth orbit and a production efficiency improvement of 40% [4] - Xiaomi has initiated a recruitment drive for AI talent, with a budget of 16 billion yuan for AI research and development this year, focusing on various AI-related projects [12] - The 10,000th general-purpose humanoid robot from Zhiyuan was officially launched, achieving a tenfold increase in production scale within 15 months [13] Group 4: Market Regulations - The Nasdaq announced a new "fast track" mechanism for the Nasdaq 100 index, allowing eligible new stocks to be included as early as the 15th trading day, significantly reducing the previous waiting period [6] Group 5: Global Economic Context - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a dovish stance, indicating a preference to maintain interest rates amid energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, while cautioning about potential inflationary pressures [5] - South Korea is considering implementing public driving restrictions for the first time in 35 years if oil prices exceed $120 per barrel, as part of emergency preparations for potential crises in the Middle East [8] Group 6: Market Trends - A significant drop in memory prices was observed, with the price of mainstream 16GB DDR5 memory modules falling from 1000 yuan to around 700 yuan, attributed to large holders liquidating their inventory [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - TACO expectations are rising, and most Treasury bond futures closed higher. The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3] - The economy still shows a pattern of "strong supply and weak demand", and the foundation for the recovery of real estate and consumption is not yet solid. The financial data is neutral to positive for the bond market, but inflation expectations may disrupt short - term sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a 1.00% month - on - month increase and a 1.30% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and a - 0.90% year - on - year decrease [9] - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale is 451.40 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.29 trillion yuan (+0.51%); M2 year - on - year is 9.00%, with no change; the manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% (-0.61%) [10] - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 99.21, with a day - on - day increase of 0.09 (+0.09%); the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.8928, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.002 (-0.02%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.42, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.35%); DR007 is 1.41, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-1.00%); R007 is 1.55, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.55%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.46, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.34%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.00 (-0.34%) [11] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report provides multiple charts including the closing price trend, price change rate, precipitation funds trend, position ratio, net position ratio (top 20), and long - short position ratio (top 20) of Treasury bond futures main contracts [13][14][20] 3. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - The report presents charts on the spread between China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, Treasury bond issuance, Shibor interest rate trend, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trend, inter - bank pledged repo transaction statistics, and local bond issuance [27][28][26] 4. Spread Overview - The report shows charts on the inter - period spread trend of Treasury bond futures and the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures, such as (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [41][34][36] 5. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts on the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funds rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [43][44] 6. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides charts on the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funds rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [46][60] 7. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report offers charts on the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funds rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [55][59] 8. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts on the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funds rate, and the three - year basis trend and two - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [63][68] Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: Repo rates are falling, and Treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [4] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [4] - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]

Core Viewpoint - The March EPMI (Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers Index) significantly increased by 13.0 points to 57.6, indicating a strong recovery in emerging industries during the peak season of operations, surpassing seasonal averages and previous years' performance [1][6][7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply and demand improved synchronously, with production and procurement indices rising by 23.4 and 24.2 points respectively, while product and export order indices increased by 17.8 and 15.6 points [8][9]. - Both production and product order indices exceeded an absolute level of 60, indicating a healthy supply-demand relationship, contributing 45% and 41% to the EPMI increase respectively [8][9]. Price Trends - Prices continued to rise, with purchase and sales price indices increasing by 8.4 and 6.1 points respectively, marking the continuation of a positive trend for three and four months [12]. - The EPMI and PMI price indices suggest a potential positive shift in PPI (Producer Price Index) for the first time in 42 months [12]. R&D and Expectations in Emerging Industries - Emerging industries showed strong R&D and expectation indicators, with short-term financing conditions improving as the EPMI loan difficulty index decreased by 2.7 points [15][16]. - R&D, employment, and expectations indices rose by 7.5, 8.6, and 22.2 points respectively, reflecting a favorable environment for innovation and growth [15][16]. Sector Performance - The new generation of information technology, new materials, and new energy sectors exhibited the highest levels of prosperity, with indices around 60 [3][17]. - The automotive sector, particularly in new energy vehicles, saw significant growth, with retail sales increasing by 36% year-on-year in early March [3][17]. Price Performance Insights - New materials and energy-saving environmental protection sectors experienced substantial price increases due to geopolitical tensions affecting costs, which were passed down to downstream sectors [20]. - The sales prices in high-end equipment manufacturing rose significantly by 16.2 points, supported by strong export demand [20][22]. Manufacturing PMI Outlook - The manufacturing PMI is expected to show significant improvement, returning to an expansionary phase, supported by positive trends in traditional manufacturing sectors [22].

Group 1: EPMI Overview - The March EPMI increased significantly by 13.0 points to 57.6, surpassing seasonal averages and previous years' increases of 7.8, 3.9, and 9.3 points in March 2015, 2018, and 2024 respectively[3] - The absolute level of the March EPMI indicates a strong performance in emerging industries during the peak production season[3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply-side production and procurement indices rose by 23.4 and 24.2 points respectively, while demand-side product orders and export orders increased by 17.8 and 15.6 points[4] - Both production and product order indices exceeded 60, indicating a healthy supply-demand relationship, contributing 45% and 41% to the EPMI increase respectively[4][5] Group 3: Price Trends - In March, the purchasing price index rose by 8.4 points and the sales price index increased by 6.1 points, continuing a trend of improvement over the past months[7] - The profit index also saw a rise of 9.4 points, indicating a positive outlook for profitability in the sector[7] Group 4: Industry Insights - Emerging industries such as new generation information technology, new materials, and new energy showed the highest levels of prosperity, with indices around 60[8] - Significant improvements were noted in the new energy vehicle and biotechnology sectors, with increases exceeding 15 points[8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The hot-rolled coil is expected to continue to operate in a volatile and slightly stronger manner. The short - and medium - term trends are strengthening, with cost support from raw materials, supply pressure relieved by production decline, and demand showing a post - holiday recovery but still at a low level in recent years. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and the subsequent inventory reduction rhythm [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures price**: The main contract of hot - rolled coil futures reduced its positions by 14,370 lots on Monday, with a trading volume of 292,044 lots, which was lower than the previous trading day. The short - term moving average broke through the 5 - day moving average around 3278, the 30 - day moving average was 3250, and the medium - term pressure was around the 60 - day moving average of 3265 [1] - **Spot price**: The price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3280 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was - 19 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply side**: The actual weekly output was 295.26 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.85 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 23.39 million tons. Steel mills actively reduced production, and both the year - on - year and month - on - month production decreased, alleviating the supply - side pressure [4] - **Demand side**: The apparent consumption was 295.36 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.79 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 35.99 million tons. The weekly apparent demand rebounded, but it was still weak year - on - year, and the demand had not formed a continuous warming trend [4] - **Inventory side**: The social inventory was 382.31 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.70 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 50.41 million tons, showing continuous inventory accumulation. The steel mill inventory was 89.28 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 million tons, indicating a reduction in in - plant inventory. The total inventory was 471.59 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 55.37 million tons. The total inventory increased significantly year - on - year, the social inventory accumulated obviously, the inventory - to - sales ratio was still at a high level, and the market inventory reduction pressure was not fundamentally relieved [4] - **Policy side**: On March 5, 2026, the National Two Sessions were held. The government work report proposed to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and arrange 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds to strengthen the support for infrastructure and "two new" projects, boosting the medium - and long - term market confidence. However, the current manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, downstream orders had not improved substantially, and it would take time for policies to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, making it difficult to reverse the high - inventory pattern in the short term [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Supply contraction, demand resilience, policy support ("15th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and stronger raw materials [5] - **Bearish factors**: Slow realization of demand, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro - level disturbances [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is affected by frequent geopolitical disturbances, and steel prices continue to fluctuate. The five major steel products have a slight increase in production, with an increase in rebar production and a shift in hot-rolled coil production. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand has a seasonal rebound, but inventories are still accumulating rapidly, especially for rebar. The capital availability of downstream construction sites across the country has improved, and the capital availability of housing construction projects is better than that of non - real estate projects. The "Two Sessions" have released this year's economic growth target, with the GDP growth rate lower than last year. The demand recovery situation remains to be seen, and the pessimistic expectations of steel mills may limit the iron - water production this year, putting pressure on raw materials. Recent overseas geopolitical frictions have increased, which may drive up the cost of steel raw materials. During the "Two Sessions", steel prices generally maintain a volatile trend, but may return to the fundamentals after the "Two Sessions", and there is still pressure on steel prices. [7] 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: This week, the small - sample production of rebar is 173.31 tons (+8.21), and that of hot - rolled coil is 301.11 tons (-8.50). The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces is 227.59 tons (-5.69), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills is 19.3% (+17.9). The electric - arc furnace is in a loss state, but after the festival, the electric - arc furnace has a rapid resumption of production, and the daily consumption of scrap steel is 39.34 tons, with expected further production increase next week. Long - process steel is generally in a loss state, and steel mills have insufficient enthusiasm for production increase. [4] - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar this week is 98.23 tons (+64.68), and that for hot - rolled coil is 281.57 tons (+13.20). Downstream demand has a certain recovery this week but is still lower than the same period last year. The restocking demand of the manufacturing industry has declined, and overseas has entered the off - season. The capital availability of downstream construction sites is still weak. The growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment from January to December has continued to decline month - on - month, and there is a lack of incremental domestic project investment. In December, the decline in housing sales, land acquisition, completion, and new construction has narrowed, but still maintains a negative growth of about 20 - 30%. In February, the commercial housing sales in 30 large - and medium - sized cities across the country have a month - on - month decline of 26%, and residents' willingness to buy houses is insufficient, and the real estate market is still in a downward trend. The official manufacturing PMI in February is 49%, and the S&P Global manufacturing PMI is 52.1%. The manufacturing PMI in February has continued to decline, and new orders, exports, and production data have decreased due to the off - season of manufacturing demand and the decline in overseas demand. In January, China's automobile production has a year - on - year decrease of 2.09%, and exports have a year - on - year increase of 73.2%, with domestic demand declining and overseas demand increasing significantly. The production schedule of the three major white goods in March has a year - on - year decrease of 4%, and the decline has narrowed. Currently, it is the off - season for home appliance demand, but home appliance production may improve in April. The US Markit manufacturing PMI in February is 51.6, down from the previous value of 52.4, indicating a decline in the US manufacturing industry. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week is 213,000, the highest since the week of February 7, worse than the expected 215,000, but the US manufacturing industry is still in the expansion stage. The initial value of the euro - zone manufacturing PMI in February is 50.8, up from the previous value of 49.5, indicating an expansion, and the data of Germany and France have both risen above the break - even line, indicating that the euro - zone manufacturing industry is recovering. [4] - **Inventory**: For rebar, the factory inventory has an increase of 5.09 tons, the social inventory has an increase of 69.99 tons, and the total inventory has an increase of 75.08 tons. For hot - rolled coil, the factory inventory has a decrease of 4.70 tons, the social inventory has an increase of 24.24 tons, and the total inventory has an increase of 19.54 tons. For the five major steel products, the factory inventory has a month - on - month decrease of 1.49 tons, the social inventory has an increase of 105.38 tons, and the total inventory has an increase of 103.89 tons. [4] - **Outlook**: The five major steel products have a slight increase in production, with rebar increasing production and hot - rolled coil shifting to production increase. Steel mills are still in the mode of shutdown and maintenance. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand has a seasonal rebound, but inventories are still accumulating rapidly, with rebar having a faster inventory accumulation rate, and the inventory is shifting from factory inventory to social inventory. The capital availability of downstream construction sites across the country has improved this week, and the capital availability of housing construction projects is better than that of non - real estate projects. The "Two Sessions" have released this year's economic growth target, with the GDP growth rate lower than last year. Due to the possible lower - than - expected capital expenditure in the first quarter, the demand recovery situation remains to be seen, and the pessimistic expectations of steel mills may limit the iron - water production this year, putting pressure on raw materials. Recent overseas geopolitical frictions have increased, and the resonance of oil and precious metals has an impact on black prices. If the frictions intensify in the future, it may drive up the cost of steel raw materials. During the "Two Sessions", steel prices generally maintain a volatile trend, but may return to the fundamentals after the "Two Sessions", and there is still pressure on steel prices. [7] - **Trading Strategies**: - **Unilateral**: Maintain a volatile trend. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread at high levels, and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil - coking coal ratio. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see. [9] Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: On Friday, the rebar summary price in Shanghai is 3,190 yuan (-10), and that in Beijing is 3,100 yuan (+10). The hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai is 3,230 yuan (-10), and the Hebei Steel hot - rolled coil price in Tianjin is 3,140 yuan (-). [13] - **Profit**: The cash profit of long - process steel mills in East China and Tangshan for rebar, and in Tianjin and East China for hot - rolled coil is presented in the corresponding charts. The flat - rate electricity profit of the electric - arc furnace in East China is - 235.43 yuan (-5.9), and the off - peak electricity profit is - 70 yuan (-6). [24][31] Chapter 3: Important Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data Summary - **China**: The official manufacturing PMI in February is 49, lower than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.3. China plans to set the deficit ratio at about 4% in 2026, with the target for the rise in consumer prices at about 2%. In 2026, 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will be issued (the same as in 2025), with 300 billion yuan of special treasury bonds and 4.4 trillion yuan of local special bonds. The expected economic growth target for 2026 is 4.5 - 5%. The National Development and Reform Commission of China will intensify the rectification of "involution - style" competition, orderly reduce the production capacity of industries such as steel and refining, strengthen the exploration, development, and reserve of strategic mineral resources, and build a reserve system. The government work report will strengthen anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition, strengthen the rigid constraints of fair competition review, and use means such as production capacity control, standard guidance, price law enforcement, and quality supervision to rectify "involution - style" competition and create a good market environment. [33] - **US**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 28 is 213,000, the highest since the week of February 7, worse than the expected 215,000. [33] - **EU**: The European Commission announced the "Industrial Accelerator Act" on the 4th, proposing requirements such as "Made in the EU" in public procurement and public support programs to enhance the internal value - creation ability of the EU and consolidate the EU's industrial foundation. [33] - **Social Financing and Investment**: In January, the new social financing is 722.08 billion yuan, up from the previous value of 220.75 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 2.36%. The new RMB loans are 471 billion yuan, up from the previous value of 91 billion yuan. Resident loans are 45.65 billion yuan, and enterprise loans are 445 billion yuan. The growth of social financing in January is generally stable. The issuance of government bonds, the year - on - year increase in short - term enterprise loans and short - term resident loans support the new social financing, while medium - and long - term enterprise and resident loans drag down the new social financing, and the willingness for production, operation, and housing purchase is still insufficient. From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment is - 3.80%, down from the previous value of - 2.6%, and the growth rate has continued to decline rapidly month - on - month. Among them, the cumulative year - on - year investment in real estate development is - 17.2%, the cumulative investment in manufacturing is + 0.6%, the cumulative year - on - year completion of infrastructure investment is - 1.48%, and the cumulative year - on - year completion of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) is - 2.2%. The growth rates of the three types of investment have continued to shrink significantly month - on - month. The real estate market lacks fiscal support and remains a drag on domestic demand. The issuance of government bonds has slowed down compared with the same period last year, which has affected infrastructure investment to a certain extent. Enterprise loans are low, and the investment growth rate in the manufacturing industry has continued to shrink due to the lack of industrial prosperity. [42] Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces is 227.59 tons (-5.69), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills is 19.3% (+17.9). The small - sample production of rebar is 173.31 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 8.21 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil is 301.11 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.50 tons. [60][65] - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar is 98.23 tons (a lunar year - on - year decrease of 57.9%), with a month - on - month increase of 64.68 tons. The small - sample apparent demand for hot - rolled coil is 281.57 tons (a lunar year - on - year decrease of 10.21%), with a month - on - month increase of 13.20 tons. The real - estate project resumption rate this week is 22.4%, with a month - on - month increase of 14.2 percentage points and a lunar year - on - year increase of 1.5 percentage points; the labor employment rate is 29.5%, with a month - on - month increase of 10.3 percentage points and a lunar year - on - year increase of 7.8 percentage points; the capital availability rate is 35.3%, with a month - on - month increase of 6.9 percentage points and a lunar year - on - year increase of 7 percentage points. The non - real - estate project resumption rate is 23.9%, with a month - on - month increase of 14.7 percentage points and a lunar year - on - year decrease of 0.3 percentage points; the labor employment rate is 29.8%, with a month - on - month increase of 15.8 percentage points and a lunar year - on - year increase of 0.8 percentage points; the capital availability rate is 35.6%, with a month - on - month increase of 6.4 percentage points and a lunar year - on - year decrease of 1.1 percentage points. The overall resumption rate across the country has a slightly narrower year - on - year increase, showing the characteristics of "faster in the south than in the north, priority for key projects, and differentiated capital". The issuance of special bonds in East China remains stable, and there are improvements in the northwest and south this period, ensuring project resumption. Projects in North and Central China are affected by regulations, and the project resumption rhythm is affected. The resumption progress of urban renewal and "two - major" construction projects has accelerated, and special bonds and debt - resolution funds are accelerating the shift towards people's livelihood and strategic projects. The capital of resettlement housing and affordable housing projects in housing construction projects has continued to improve, and the capital of high - speed rail and water conservancy projects in non - housing construction projects is guaranteed. In 2025, China's cumulative steel exports from January to December are 119.02 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In December, steel exports are 1.13 million tons, an increase of 132,000 tons from the previous month, with a month - on - month increase of 13.23%. According to high - frequency data in February, recent exports have declined due to export licenses. Due to the rapid appreciation of the RMB and the outbreak of the US - Iran war, orders from March to April have been affected, and there is a risk of a decline in steel exports in the future. [68][77][80] - **Inventory**: For rebar, the factory inventory has an increase of 5.09 tons, the social inventory has an increase of 69.99 tons, and the total inventory has an increase of 75.08 tons. For hot - rolled coil, the factory inventory has a decrease of 4.70 tons, the social inventory has an increase of 24.24 tons, and the total inventory has an increase of 19.54 tons. For the five major steel products, the factory inventory has a month - on - month decrease of 1.49 tons, the social inventory has an increase of 105.38 tons, and the total inventory has an increase of 103.89 tons. [4]