12 月制造业 PMI 继续上行，有色金属价格普遍上涨 ——行业景气观察（0107） 本周景气度改善的方向主要在资源品、消费服务和信息技术领域。上游资源品中， 工业金属价格普遍上涨；中游制造领域，新能源产业链价格多数上涨，12 月重卡 销量三个月滚动同比增幅收窄。信息技术中，存储器价格持续上涨，11 月北美 PCB 出货量与订单量三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。消费服务领域，猪鸡价格上行， 中药材价格上涨。节前备货需求拉动 12 月制造业和非制造业 PMI 均回暖。推荐 景气较高或有改善的有色、化工、电力设备、养殖业、存储器、半导体、非银等。 ❑【本周关注】节前备货需求推动生产回暖，采购和库存均有提升，企业生产经营活 动预期修复，共同支撑制造业和非制造业 PMI 改善。结构上特征主要有：1）节前 备货需求推动生产端延续修复，采购量和生产指数环比上升至荣枯线以上，需求受 出口韧性增长，上游原材料价格上涨和企业备货需求推动，内外需订单均有回升， 价格在宏观流动性宽松、下游需求旺盛、供需紧平衡的驱动下持续景气区间；2） 制造业大类行业中，算力需求旺盛驱动核心硬件价格上涨，高技术制造高位上行， 新兴领域需求景气、企业节前备货 ...

上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.40个百分点至78.63%，PVC开工 率转而增加，处于近年同期中性水平。冬季到来，PVC下游开工率环比下降0.58个百分点，下游制品 订单不佳。出口方面，上周出口签单小幅减少，印度市场价格偏低，印度需求有限，台湾台塑1月份 CFR中国环比持平，但CFR印度、CFR东南亚分别下跌20美元/吨、30美元/吨。上周社会库存继续增加， 目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-11月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施工、 竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房 周度成交面积环比继续回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。新增产能上，30 万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化新近试生产。12月中国制造业PMI、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数均 升至扩张区间，陕西差别电价政策征求意见稿发布，反内卷情绪进一步升温，财政部提前下达2026 年以旧换新及"两重"额度，宏观氛围偏暖，大宗商品市场情绪提振，氯碱综合毛利承压，部分生 产企业开工预期下降，但目前产量下降有限，期货仓单仍处高位，电石价格稳定，印度 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监详可【2012】31号 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2026/1/7 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | | DRO01 | 1.26 | 2.07 | DR007 | 1.43 | 0.26 | | | GC001 | 1.74 | 173.50 | GC007 | 1.57 | 156.50 | | 100 | SHBOR 3M | 1.60 | 0.00 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 1 | 1年期国债 | 1.32 | 1.80 | 5年期国债 | 1.62 | 1.00 | | 1 | 10年期国债 | 1.83 | -1.70 | 10年期美债 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 回顾:央行昨日开展了162亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率1.40%,投标 量162亿元,中标 ...

对于后续走势，短期来看，欧元兑美元大概率延续区间震荡态势，技术面指标显示趋势动能有所降温， 行情方向的突破仍需等待关键数据指引。若欧元区通胀数据超预期，有望强化欧洲央行维持当前政策的 预期，进而为欧元提供支撑；反之，若美国非农就业报告表现强劲，则可能进一步提振美元，对欧元兑 美元形成打压。 汇率走势承压的背后，是多重因素的共同作用。一方面，美国10年期国债收益率上行，叠加本周投资级 债券发行规模预期升温，推动美元指数走强，间接对欧元兑美元构成压力；另一方面，欧元区经济基本 面表现疲软，12月制造业PMI遭下修，核心经济体制造业活动持续处于收缩区间，引发市场对欧元区增 长动能的担忧情绪。此外，欧美两大央行政策预期的分歧对汇率形成拉扯，市场等待美联储降息路径的 明确信号，同时密切关注欧元区通胀报告的发布，多空双方均保持谨慎态度，限制了汇率的波动空间。 日内欧元兑美元呈现窄幅震荡格局，最终小幅走低，市场目光聚焦于欧美两地通胀数据与央行政策信号 的进一步明朗化。 从行情表现来看，欧元兑美元开盘后围绕窄区间波动，盘中冲高回落，整体波幅受限。同期美元指数小 幅反弹，对欧元汇率形成一定压制作用。 从中长期视角分析，欧美经济 ...

分项来看，印度服务业PMI终值从初值59.1下修至58.0，低于市场预测的59.3及11月终值59.8。这是自 2025年1月以来服务业最疲弱的扩张表现。新业务与产出增速均放缓至11个月低点。 新华财经北京1月6日电汇丰印度采购经理人指数（PMI）数据显示，印度2025年12月经济活动扩张速度 明显减弱。综合PMI终值由初值58.9下修至57.8，低于11月的59.7，为2025年以来最低水平。 根据报告，制造业与服务业同步放缓，构成整体动能减弱的主要原因。新订单增速降至过去25个月以来 最慢，商品生产商与服务企业的增长动力均有所减弱。同时，综合就业创造陷入停滞，其中制造业招聘 活动疲软，服务业就业人数则略有减少。 在价格方面，投入成本与产出收费继续小幅上涨，通胀率大体相近，且仍低于其长期平均水平。 企业对未来经营活动的预期虽维持乐观，但信心指数已下滑至41个月低点，反映出在整体扩张背景下， 市场主体情绪趋于谨慎。 值得注意的是，尽管内需疲软，新出口订单却以显著速度增长，且增速快于11月。就业方面，服务业自 2025年5月以来首次出现下降，尽管幅度很小，绝大多数公司报告自11月以来员工人数未变。 价格压力保持 ...

财达期货｜股指期货周报 财达期货｜股指期货周报 2026-1-5 研究员 姓名：李津文 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 5 页 行情回顾: 从业资格号： 上周四个股指期货品种走势以震荡整理为主，其中上上证 50 和沪深 300 的调整幅度相对较大。四个股指期货品种基差贴水深度 有所加深，全部主力合约保持期货贴水模式。期指主力合约期货- 现货基差，IH 收于-6.1，IF 收于-30.1，IC 收于-102.8，IM 收于 -159.1。 F0244287 投资咨询号： 上周 A 股市场整体震荡整理，沪指虽未能延续九连阳，但整体 市场表现依然稳定。行业层面，资金最为集中的商业航天板块出现 较为明显的调整，但从调整过程来看，板块个股仍能维持较好秩序， 并未出现恶性杀跌局面。即便有新的主线机器人板块强势崛起，也 并未对商业航天板块产生十分恶劣的影响。另外，受期货品种短期 剧烈波动影响，有色板块低开幅度较大，但能够迅速收复失地，并 有龙头品种创出新高。由此来看，市场的热点板块并非简单的切换， 而是有所扩散。成交量连续三日维持在 2 万亿以上水平，当前市场 的热点具有量能上的实质支撑。 综合分析： 宏 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2026年01月05日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] [table_summary] ➢ 1.创新新周期，医药新未来——医药生物行业2026年度投资策略 ➢ 2.制造业PMI逆势走强下的亮点——国内观察：2025年12月PMI ➢ 3.1月投资策略及金股组合 ➢ 1.公募基金费率改革的"最后关键一步"正式落地 ➢ 2.数字人民币实施计息 ➢ 3.美国将深度介入委内瑞拉石油产业，马杜罗最早周一出庭 ➢ 4.特朗普将家具和橱柜的关税上调推迟一年 ➢ 5.2026年元旦假期国内出游1.42亿人次 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20260105 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 | 1.1. 创新新周期，医药新未来 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客 户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处 为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铝类产业日报 2026/1/5 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 23,645.00 | +720.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,770.00 | -8.00↓ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 660.00 261,132.00 | +660.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) +4759.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | -1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for December 2025 is reported at 50.1%, indicating a return to the expansion zone with a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points. Large enterprises show a PMI of 50.8%, up 1.5 percentage points, while medium and small enterprises exhibit PMIs of 49.8% and 48.6%, respectively, indicating varying levels of improvement and pressure [6] - The production index within the manufacturing PMI is at 51.7%, reflecting a significant acceleration in production activities. The new orders index is at 50.8%, indicating improved market demand and increased order volumes [6] - The machine tool industry in China achieved a cumulative revenue of 942.1 billion yuan from January to November 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%. Notably, the metal cutting machine segment saw a revenue increase of 10.5% [9] - Industrial robots maintained a rapid growth trajectory, with a cumulative production of 673,800 units from January to November 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.2% [9] Summary by Sections Manufacturing PMI - December 2025 manufacturing PMI is 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating expansion [6] - Large enterprises' PMI is 50.8%, medium enterprises at 49.8%, and small enterprises at 48.6%, showing varying levels of operational improvement [6] - The production index is 51.7%, and the new orders index is 50.8%, both indicating positive trends in manufacturing activity [6] Machine Tool Industry - Cumulative revenue from January to November 2025 is 942.1 billion yuan, with a 1.3% year-on-year growth [9] - Metal cutting machine revenue increased by 10.5%, with production reaching 783,000 units, a 12.7% year-on-year growth [9] - New orders for metal processing machines grew by 6.3% year-on-year, while the total import and export value reached 30.31 billion USD, a 5.4% increase [9] Industrial Robots - Cumulative production of industrial robots from January to November 2025 is 673,800 units, a 29.2% year-on-year increase [9] - Cumulative sales reached 723,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 46.04% [9] - Export quantity increased by 81.65%, with a total export value of 494 million USD, reflecting a 60.55% year-on-year growth [9]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment is positive, and the non - ferrous metals sector has been strengthening. Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and influencing factors. Copper prices may fluctuate, zinc prices are expected to range - bound, and nickel and stainless steel prices may run strongly in the short term [1][9][85][193] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate, and prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel, and provides their daily, weekly, and annual price changes [6] 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Influencing Factors and Driving Forces** - **Macro Factors**: Positive. China's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the Fed may cut interest rates [9] - **Raw Material End**: Positive. Copper ore supply is tight, and processing fees are low [9] - **Smelting End**: Neutral. The losses of smelters using spot copper ore have narrowed slightly, while those using long - term contracts have increased profits [9] - **Demand End**: Negative. High copper prices have led to a decline in downstream demand and a drop in the operating rate of refined copper rods [9] - **Inventory**: Negative. Global copper inventories have increased [9] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The copper price is expected to fluctuate. Although the industrial situation is weak, the positive macro - sentiment and the existence of the US - copper premium have pushed up the copper price. However, there is a short - term adjustment risk. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips for unilateral trading; no arbitrage strategy is recommended [9] 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Influencing Factors and Driving Forces** - **Macro Factors**: Slightly positive. The Fed may cut interest rates, and China's manufacturing PMI has improved [85] - **Raw Material End**: Slightly positive. Domestic zinc concentrate supply is tight, and the cost support for zinc prices is strong [85] - **Smelting End**: Negative. The supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase in January, and the domestic surplus pattern may gradually emerge [85] - **Demand End**: Negative. The operating rate of galvanizing has declined, and environmental protection warnings may affect the operating rate [85] - **Inventory**: Negative. Although the social inventory has decreased, the inventory transfer trend is expected to reverse [85] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The zinc price is expected to range - bound. The cost center of zinc smelting is stable, and the domestic surplus expectation may gradually appear, but the short - term macro - sentiment is still positive [85] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound for unilateral trading; conduct long - short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [85] 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Influencing Factors and Driving Forces** - **Macro Factors**: Slightly positive. The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle continues, and China has implemented relevant policies. However, geopolitical risks have resurfaced [193] - **Raw Material End**: Positive. Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production, and domestic port inventories are decreasing [193] - **Smelting End**: Neutral. The production of pure nickel has declined slightly, and the production of nickel - iron and stainless steel has also been affected [193] - **Demand End**: Neutral. The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but the demand for new energy has weakened [193] - **Inventory**: Slightly negative. The global nickel inventory is at a high level, although the accumulation speed has slowed down [193] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The nickel price may run strongly in the short term, but there is a risk of correction in the long term. The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate strongly [193] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips for short - term trading for nickel; for stainless steel, go long on dips for short - term trading, and enterprises can wait for opportunities to sell short for hedging [193]