Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side of copper has disturbances with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being relaxed. In September, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, with the business climate continuing to improve. The copper price is expected to remain strong due to inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances, such as the event at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances, smelting production cuts, relaxed scrap - copper policy, and improved manufacturing PMI in September. Overall, it is considered neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 85750, with a basis of - 1000, indicating a discount to futures, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: On October 9, copper inventory increased by 275 to 139475 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3745 tons to 95034 tons compared to last week. Overall, it is considered neutral [2]. - **Market Chart**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Inventory is rising, geopolitical disturbances persist, and the copper price is expected to remain strong [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Global policy easing and trade - war escalation are mentioned as logical factors, but no clear classification of bullish or bearish factors is given [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance state [21]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024 [23].

研究报告 股指周报 先抑后扬，9 月股指期货市场震荡上行 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | | 号 证监许可【2012】1087 | | | | | | 金融板块研究员：邓夏羽 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0246320 | | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0003212 | | | | | | 电话：13519655433 | | | | | | 邮箱：383566967@qq.com | | | | | | 报告日期：2025 年 | 月 | 10 | 9 | 日星期四 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 9 月股票市场走出先扬后抑走势，总体呈现震荡上行态势， 三大指数月线均收涨，其中创业板指本月累计涨超 12%创三年 多新高，科创 50 指数涨超 11%创近四年新高。 9 月国内股指期货市场整体震荡上行。IC 走势较强，具体 主力期货合约数据如下： | | 品种 | | 合约代码 | 9 月 | 30 | ...

国债发行计划变化、制造业 PMI 成色和海外资产涨跌。 投资要点： 通 用 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 总量研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.10.08 | | 0755-23976753 tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 杜润琛(研究助理) | | | 021-38031034 | | | durunchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880123090079 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 总 量 研 究 国庆前后，需着重关注的三件事 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 本报告导读： 银行二永债周度数据库更新（2025.9.19-9.30） 2025.10.07 地方债利差小幅走阔，新增地方债发行进度 83.6% 2025.10.05 收益率整体上行，期限利差走阔 2025.10.05 T、TL 机构行为因子分化，T 合约多头力量增强 20250929 2025.09.29 跨季前后的阶段性平台期 2025.09.28 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部 ...

宏 观 研 究 美国政府停摆，美元为何回升？ ——国庆中秋假期宏观综述 投资要点： 宏 观 专 题 美国政府停摆小非农走弱，美元指数为何却逆势回升？因美国共和民 主两党在医保福利方面的分歧未能弥合，美国联邦政府自 10 月 1 日起时隔 七年再度"停摆"。民主党人希望延长即将于今年年底到期的《平价医疗法 案》加强型补贴，并撤销"大而美"法案中对联邦医疗补助的削减。两党 在此问题上的巨大分歧至今未能弥合，导致此次美国联邦政府"停摆"持 续时间难以预测。政府停摆导致的不确定性与偏弱的 9 月"小非农"数据 共同导致美元指数一度小幅走低，但自 10 月 2 日至 7 日，美元指数迎来一 轮幅度达到 0.8%的逆势回升。当地时间 10 月 1 日公布的"小非农"9 月 ADP 就业数据就成为重要的劳动力市场观察指标，数据显示 9 月美国非农 就业减少达 3.2 万人，降幅超过 6 月，创 2023 年 4 月以来最低单月表现， 显示"对等关税"冲击劳动力市场程度较大。但至北京时间 10 月 7 日晚间， 美元指数回升至 98.5 附近，较 10 月 1 日已经累计回升达 0.8%。 原因之一：法国总理闪辞暴露欧元区财 ...

宏 观 研 究 美国政府停摆，美元为何回升？ ——国庆中秋假期宏观综述 投资要点： 宏 观 专 题 美国政府停摆小非农走弱，美元指数为何却逆势回升？因美国共和民 主两党在医保福利方面的分歧未能弥合，美国联邦政府自 10 月 1 日起时隔 七年再度"停摆"。民主党人希望延长即将于今年年底到期的《平价医疗法 案》加强型补贴，并撤销"大而美"法案中对联邦医疗补助的削减。两党 在此问题上的巨大分歧至今未能弥合，导致此次美国联邦政府"停摆"持 续时间难以预测。政府停摆导致的不确定性与偏弱的 9 月"小非农"数据 共同导致美元指数一度小幅走低，但自 10 月 2 日至 7 日，美元指数迎来一 轮幅度达到 0.8%的逆势回升。当地时间 10 月 1 日公布的"小非农"9 月 ADP 就业数据就成为重要的劳动力市场观察指标，数据显示 9 月美国非农 就业减少达 3.2 万人，降幅超过 6 月，创 2023 年 4 月以来最低单月表现， 显示"对等关税"冲击劳动力市场程度较大。但至北京时间 10 月 7 日晚间， 美元指数回升至 98.5 附近，较 10 月 1 日已经累计回升达 0.8%。 证 券 研 究 报 告 原因之二： ...

完整早报音频，请点击标题下方小耳机收听 【 2025诺贝尔生理学或医学奖公布】 当地时间 10月6日，瑞典卡罗琳医学院宣布，将2025年诺贝尔生理学或医学奖授予科学家玛丽·E·布伦科（Mary E. Brunkow）、弗雷德·拉姆斯德尔（Fred Ramsdell）和坂口志文（Shimon Sakaguchi），表彰他们在外周免疫耐受方面的研究贡献。（央视） 【网传阿维塔 06起火，官方回应称正在调查中】 据媒体报道， 10月5日下午，福建宁德三沙镇东壁村一处海滨停车场突发火灾，一辆阿维塔06新能源汽 车起火，连带烧毁奥迪、宝马、埃安等7辆邻车。幸运的是，被烧毁的车辆均为游客车辆，事故未造成人员伤亡。根据当事人车主提到，这辆阿维塔06是 今年8月28日购置的新车，行驶里程仅1066公里。记者就此事向阿维塔官方求证，官方表示，目前官方与消防均在调查中，不便透露更多信息，预计今天 会有初步判断。此外，阿维塔官方客服回应表示，关于起火事件，具体原因还在核实当中。阿维塔06的所有车型，电池肯定都符合国家标准。阿维塔06的 电池均采用宁德时代电池。（新浪科技） 【 OpenAI打造ChatGPT终极OS入口：迈步"Ap ...

【重点关注】 ·全球制造业PMI连续7个月在49%-50%区间经济恢复态势相对平稳 ·持续阴雨影响秋收进度农业农村部部署抢收抢烘工作 ·再启涨势！现货黄金刷新纪录至3940美元/盎司上方国内金饰克价逼近1150元/克 【国内要闻】 ·中国物流与采购联合会公布数据显示，9月份全球制造业采购经理指数为49.7%，较上月小幅下降0.2个 百分点，连续7个月运行在49%-50%的区间内。三季度，全球制造业采购经理指数均值为49.6%，较二 季度提高0.3个百分点。分区域看，亚洲制造业采购经理指数与上月持平，连续5个月运行在50%以上。 ·目前黄淮地区秋粮已进入成熟收获期，产量已经形成，但近期持续阴雨影响秋收进度，不利于秋冬种 开展。农业农村部要求各级农业农村部门优化调度服务、保障机具物资，组织人员力量抢排积水、抢收 抢烘，启动防灾救灾农机储备和调用制度。及早调度农机需求，调剂调运大功率抽水机具、履带式收割 机、烘干机等应急机具，按照"先熟先收、有涝先收、易损先收"原则，开展应急抢收抢烘，发挥好各级 应急救灾服务中心、应急救灾服务队和农机综合服务中心作用。 ·6日上午，交通运输部调度各省、自治区、直辖市、新疆生产建设兵 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed mixed performance ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures down 0.02%, S&P 500 futures up 0.25%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.49% [1] - European indices also experienced gains, with Germany's DAX up 1.27%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.04%, France's CAC40 up 1.41%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 1.52% [2][3] Oil Prices - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.42% to $61.52 per barrel, while Brent crude oil prices decreased by 0.44% to $65.06 per barrel [3][4] Employment Data - The ADP employment report indicated a surprising decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, contrasting with Wall Street's expectation of an increase of 45,000, suggesting a significant deterioration in the US job market [5] - The September manufacturing PMI in the US recorded at 49.1, indicating continued contraction for the seventh consecutive month, although the output index returned to expansion at 51 [6] Layoff Statistics - US employers announced 54,064 layoffs in September, a decrease of 37% from August and a 26% drop from the same month last year, with year-to-date layoffs totaling 946,426, the highest since 2020 [7] Federal Reserve Insights - FOMC member Goolsbee noted that the government shutdown complicates the Federal Reserve's ability to interpret economic conditions due to a lack of official data [8] EU Trade Policy - The EU plans to significantly increase steel import tariffs to 50% to protect its domestic steel industry, aligning its tariff levels with those of the US [8] Investment Trends - Goldman Sachs remains bullish on gold, citing strong interest from private investors, with expectations that gold prices could rise to $4,300 per ounce by the end of next year [9] Corporate Developments - AMD is reportedly in talks with Intel for potential chip manufacturing collaboration, which could significantly enhance Intel's foundry business [10] - Berkshire Hathaway announced a $9.7 billion acquisition of Occidental Petroleum's chemical division, marking a significant transaction for the company [10] - Stellantis reported a 6% increase in third-quarter vehicle sales in the US, reaching 324,825 units, with notable growth in Jeep and Chrysler brands [11]

| 틀 US 30 | 46,434.0 | 46,508.5 | 46,381 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 틀 US 500 | 6,728.3 | 6,728.9 | 6.70 | | 트 US Tech 100 | 24,922.8 | 24,928.1 | 24,789 | 1.10月2日(周四)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货涨跌不一。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.02%，标普500指数期货涨0.25%，纳指期货涨0.49%。 欧盟拟将钢铁进口关税大幅提高至50%，以保护本土钢铁行业。一份提案草案显示，欧盟计划将钢铁进口关税提高至50%。此举将使欧盟的关税水平与美国 看齐，后者正寻求应对亚洲的产能过剩问题。欧盟目前实行一项保护其钢铁产业的临时机制，该机制规定在配额用尽后对大多数进口钢材征收25%的关税。 该机制将于6月到期，欧盟一直致力于以一项更永久性的法规取而代之，并计划于下周公布。根据草案，处理欧盟贸易事务的欧盟委员会计划将关税税率提 高至50%，"以最大限度降低贸易转移风险"。一旦进口量超过特定配额，将适用此更高税率。 2.截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨1.27%，英国富时10 ...

Core Insights - The US manufacturing sector continued to contract in September, with the PMI at 49.1, indicating a seventh consecutive month of contraction despite a slight improvement from August's 48.7 [1][2] - The output index returned to expansion at 51, a significant increase of 3.2 percentage points from August, while the new orders index fell to 48.9, ending a brief expansion [1][2] - Employment in manufacturing remains weak, with the employment index at 45.3, indicating eight months of contraction, as companies resort to layoffs or hiring freezes [1][2] Manufacturing Sector Performance - The manufacturing PMI has been below the neutral mark of 50 for seven months, reflecting ongoing weakness in the sector [2] - Only five out of 18 manufacturing categories reported growth, including petroleum, primary metals, textiles, metal products, and other manufacturing, while 11 sectors, such as wood, plastics, chemicals, transportation equipment, and electronics, reported declines [2] - The overall economic expansion continues, with the PMI reading corresponding to an annualized GDP growth of approximately 1.9% [2] Price and Inventory Trends - The price index for September was 61.9, indicating continued upward pressure on raw material costs, despite a decrease of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The inventory index fell to 47.7, suggesting increased pressure on companies to reduce inventory levels [1] - Customer inventories are generally low, which may benefit production in the future, but current business confidence is still affected by tariffs and global trade uncertainties [2]