Group 1 - The escalation of the Middle East situation has led to a surge in oil prices, with potential prices exceeding $120 per barrel due to Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a global supply gap of 20% [1] - The U.S. intervention in the conflict has heightened market fears, with geopolitical soft power dynamics driving short-term oil price fluctuations [1][3] - Iran's parliament supports closing the Strait of Hormuz, but the final decision rests with the Supreme National Security Council, creating uncertainty in the market [1][2] Group 2 - Current oil price spikes are attributed to geopolitical soft power, with military deterrence and control over shipping routes impacting oil value [2] - If the conflict does not significantly disrupt physical supply, the price premium may quickly dissipate; however, if shipping through the Strait is obstructed, oil prices could stabilize above $90 per barrel [2] - Key scenarios include controlled conflict leading to oil prices between $70-$80 per barrel, limited retaliation causing prices to rise to $90-$100, and full-scale war pushing prices above $120 [2] Group 3 - The risk premium associated with geopolitical tensions has significantly increased oil prices, with the potential for a supply chain disruption if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked [3] - A complete blockade could result in a global daily supply shortfall of 18 million barrels, exceeding historical crisis levels [3] - The interplay of soft power strategies between Iran and the U.S. is shaping market expectations and influencing oil price volatility [3] Group 4 - The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz amplifies the impact of geopolitical shocks on oil prices, with the potential for significant price increases if Iranian exports are disrupted [4] - Historical trends indicate that military intervention can lead to a return of "war premium" in oil pricing, reversing previous downward trends [4] - Financial markets are reacting to these geopolitical developments, with a shift towards safe-haven assets and potential implications for inflation and monetary policy [4]