Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market - A" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic metal allocation due to high oil price volatility caused by recent conflicts, particularly between the US and Iran. It suggests that if oil prices stabilize, the Federal Reserve may not lower interest rates, which could lead to a rise in gold and industrial metals prices [1] - The report maintains a positive outlook on various metals including gold, silver, rare earths, tungsten, copper, aluminum, and others, highlighting their potential for price increases due to supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical factors [1][2] Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report notes that the recent rise in oil prices has led to concerns about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with inflation and employment conditions differing from previous years. It anticipates that if oil prices are controlled, gold and industrial metals may see price increases [1] - The report highlights the ongoing demand for rare metals like tungsten and rare earths, particularly in military applications, which supports the supply-demand balance in the domestic market [1] Precious Metals - COMEX gold and silver prices were reported at $5,137.5 and $83.5 per ounce, respectively, with declines of -1.78% and -9.90% [2] - China's central bank increased its gold reserves to 7.422 million ounces, marking the 16th consecutive month of accumulation. The ongoing Middle East conflict is expected to impact oil prices significantly, potentially pushing them to $150 per barrel, which may suppress precious metal prices in the short term but supports a long-term bullish outlook for gold [2] Industrial Metals - Copper prices on LME were reported at $12,869 per ton, with a decrease of -1.64%. The report indicates a tightening supply of copper concentrate and an increase in demand from copper rod and wire cable manufacturers, leading to a positive outlook for copper prices [3] - Aluminum prices increased by 7.79% on LME, attributed to geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains. The report suggests that if conflicts persist, aluminum prices may see strong upward momentum [3][8] Energy Metals - Nickel prices faced downward pressure due to tightening supply from Indonesia and macroeconomic factors. The report indicates that while there is cost support for nickel, demand remains weak, leading to a cautious outlook [10] - Lithium prices decreased by 9.12% due to easing supply concerns, but the report maintains a positive long-term outlook based on increasing demand for energy storage and power batteries [12] Strategic Metals - The report notes that the price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide was reported at 847,500 yuan per ton, with expectations of supply constraints in 2026 due to quota restrictions. It highlights the potential for price increases in rare earths driven by domestic and international demand [13] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments that could impact the supply of strategic metals, particularly in the context of military applications [13]