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房价到底到什么水平了?
数说者· 2025-08-24 23:30
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline in housing prices across various cities in China, highlighting the changes in new and second-hand residential property prices since September 2021, and provides insights into the current state of the real estate market based on statistical data from the National Bureau of Statistics [2][3][10]. Group 1: New Housing Price Trends - From the new residential sales price index of 70 major cities, new housing prices have shown a continuous month-on-month decline since September 2021, with a slight positive growth observed in the first five months of 2023 [3][10]. - The decline in new housing prices is more pronounced in third-tier cities, which began experiencing negative month-on-month growth from September 2021, while second-tier cities started this trend in October 2021, and first-tier cities followed in September 2022 [5][10]. Group 2: Second-Hand Housing Price Trends - The second-hand housing market has also seen a continuous month-on-month decline since September 2021, with a greater decrease in prices compared to new homes [7][9]. - Similar to new housing, first-tier cities have shown relatively stronger price stability compared to second and third-tier cities, with significant declines starting later and being less severe [9][10]. Group 3: Sales Volume and Average Price Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the national new commodity housing sales area was approximately 45.851 million square meters, down 3.5% year-on-year, while the sales amount was 442.41 billion yuan, down 5.5% year-on-year [11][12]. - The average price of new commodity housing in the first half of 2025 is estimated to be around 9,649 yuan per square meter, which is comparable to the average price from five years ago [11]. - The average price of new residential housing is approximately 10,128 yuan per square meter, indicating a return to levels seen 4-5 years ago [12]. Group 4: Regional Price Variations - In Zhejiang, the average price of new commodity housing in the first half of 2025 is about 15,440 yuan per square meter, returning to 2019 levels [14]. - In Jiangsu, the average price is approximately 9,887 yuan per square meter, reflecting levels from the first half of 2018 [17]. - Other provinces such as Guangdong, Yunnan, and Sichuan also show average prices returning to levels from previous years, indicating a widespread trend across different regions [18][20][21].