Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline in housing prices across various cities in China, highlighting the changes in new and second-hand residential property prices since September 2021, and provides insights into the current state of the real estate market based on statistical data from the National Bureau of Statistics [2][3][10]. Group 1: New Housing Price Trends - From the new residential sales price index of 70 major cities, new housing prices have shown a continuous month-on-month decline since September 2021, with a slight positive growth observed in the first five months of 2023 [3][10]. - The decline in new housing prices is more pronounced in third-tier cities, which began experiencing negative month-on-month growth from September 2021, while second-tier cities started this trend in October 2021, and first-tier cities followed in September 2022 [5][10]. Group 2: Second-Hand Housing Price Trends - The second-hand housing market has also seen a continuous month-on-month decline since September 2021, with a greater decrease in prices compared to new homes [7][9]. - Similar to new housing, first-tier cities have shown relatively stronger price stability compared to second and third-tier cities, with significant declines starting later and being less severe [9][10]. Group 3: Sales Volume and Average Price Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the national new commodity housing sales area was approximately 45.851 million square meters, down 3.5% year-on-year, while the sales amount was 442.41 billion yuan, down 5.5% year-on-year [11][12]. - The average price of new commodity housing in the first half of 2025 is estimated to be around 9,649 yuan per square meter, which is comparable to the average price from five years ago [11]. - The average price of new residential housing is approximately 10,128 yuan per square meter, indicating a return to levels seen 4-5 years ago [12]. Group 4: Regional Price Variations - In Zhejiang, the average price of new commodity housing in the first half of 2025 is about 15,440 yuan per square meter, returning to 2019 levels [14]. - In Jiangsu, the average price is approximately 9,887 yuan per square meter, reflecting levels from the first half of 2018 [17]. - Other provinces such as Guangdong, Yunnan, and Sichuan also show average prices returning to levels from previous years, indicating a widespread trend across different regions [18][20][21].

Core Insights - The real estate market in August 2025 experienced significant changes, with a notable increase in the number of cities reporting declines in new and second-hand residential prices, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Market Data - In August 2025, 53 out of 70 major cities reported a month-on-month decline in new residential prices, an increase of 12 cities from July. For second-hand residential prices, 61 cities reported declines, up by 9 cities from the previous month [1]. - The total inventory of new residential properties in 100 cities reached 56,794 million square meters by the end of August, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.6% and a year-on-year increase of 16.2%. The average de-stocking period has extended to 18.3 months, the longest in five years [3][4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market has shifted from a seller's market to a buyer's market due to an influx of new housing projects and a decline in demand driven by demographic changes. This has resulted in an oversupply situation in several cities [3][4]. - Promotional activities for new homes in 100 key cities surged by 143% year-on-year in August, with average discounts increasing to 7.2%, and some cities offering discounts exceeding 15% [4]. Group 3: Developer Financial Health - The average debt-to-asset ratio for the top 50 real estate companies reached 76.3% by June 2025, with 15 companies having a short-term debt coverage ratio below 1, indicating severe liquidity issues [5][7]. - In August alone, seven sizable real estate firms reported debt defaults, highlighting the risks associated with high-leverage business models in a declining market [7]. Group 4: Buyer Sentiment - The buyer sentiment has shifted from panic buying to a more rational wait-and-see approach, with 67.3% of respondents in a housing demand survey choosing to wait, an increase of 21.5 percentage points from the previous year [8]. - This change in sentiment is expected to further suppress market demand, creating a negative feedback loop where developers are compelled to lower prices, which in turn discourages buyers from making purchases [8]. Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - Developers are advised to reassess their strategies, moving away from high-leverage models to ensure cash flow stability during market downturns. They should also focus on market segmentation to cater to specific demands rather than adopting a one-size-fits-all approach [9]. - For buyers, the current market presents both challenges and opportunities. First-time buyers may find favorable conditions, while those looking to upgrade should proceed cautiously. Investors are cautioned that the golden era of real estate investment may have passed, with lower expected returns [10].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a phase of adjustment, with a notable decline in housing prices across various cities, although some positive policy changes are expected to stabilize the market [2][17]. Sales Performance - From January to July, the total sales area of new commercial housing in China reached approximately 5.16 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%, with residential sales area down by 4.1% [8]. - The sales revenue for new commercial housing was 49,566 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 6.5%, with residential sales revenue down by 6.2% [8]. Price Trends - In July, the new residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, although the decline was less severe than in previous months [3][6]. - The average sales price of commercial housing nationwide from January to July was 9,613 yuan per square meter, down by 2.4% year-on-year [9]. Policy Impact - Recent policy changes, particularly the relaxation of purchase restrictions in Beijing, are seen as potential catalysts for market recovery, with expectations of increased market activity in the coming months [2][17]. - The introduction of favorable policies, such as adjustments to housing loan standards and increased public fund support, aims to stimulate demand and stabilize prices [16][17]. Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the real estate market remains cautious, with a noted increase in the number of cities experiencing price declines, indicating a continued adjustment phase [2][7]. - Despite the challenges, there are signs of resilience in first-tier cities, where demand remains relatively strong, and some new projects are seeing positive buyer engagement [6][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [6] Core Insights - In the first seven months of 2025, the transaction area of new residential properties in the core 30 cities decreased by 7% year-on-year, while the transaction area of second-hand residential properties in 15 cities increased by 10% [1][3] - The average transaction price of new residential properties in the core 30 cities increased by 3.5% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025 [2] - The report anticipates that with the continued implementation of real estate policies, high-energy core cities will benefit from urban renewal, leading to structural optimization and gradual stabilization of the market [4][81] Summary by Sections New Housing Market - In July 2025, the transaction area of new residential properties in the core 30 cities was 919 million square meters, down 19.4% year-on-year and 24.7% month-on-month [1] - The average transaction price for new residential properties in July 2025 was 24,361 yuan per square meter, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year but a decrease of 5.0% month-on-month [2] - For the first seven months of 2025, the average transaction price was 24,898 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [2] Second-Hand Housing Market - In July 2025, the transaction area of second-hand residential properties in the core 15 cities was 1,290 million square meters, down 5.8% year-on-year [3] - The average transaction price for second-hand residential properties in July 2025 was 22,924 yuan per square meter, down 5.3% year-on-year [72] - For the first seven months of 2025, the average transaction price was 24,091 yuan per square meter, showing a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment: 1. Stable leading companies with high product reputation and continuous sales ranking improvement, such as China Overseas Development and Poly Developments [4][82] 2. Companies with rich stock resources and strong operational brand competitiveness, like China Resources Land and Shanghai Lingang [4][82] 3. Long-term growth potential in the property service industry, recommending companies like China Merchants Shekou and Greentown Service [4][82]

Group 1: Market Overview - In July, the Chinese real estate market entered a traditional off-season, with a general decline in second-hand housing transaction volumes in core cities, continuing the "price for volume" phenomenon [1][2] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities fell by 0.77% month-on-month and 7.32% year-on-year, while the top ten cities saw a month-on-month decline of 0.64% and a year-on-year decline of 5.10% [1][2] - Major cities like Wuhan and Nanjing experienced significant price drops, with month-on-month declines of 1.17% and 0.95%, respectively [1] Group 2: Policy Developments - On July 15, the Central Urban Work Conference was held for the first time in ten years, signaling a shift in urban development focus from large-scale expansion to improving existing stock [2] - The State Council introduced the "Housing Rental Regulations" to encourage families to rent out their properties and support the revitalization of old buildings for rental purposes [2] - Local governments, such as Chengdu, have begun to lift housing sales restrictions, while various cities are optimizing housing loan policies [2] Group 3: City-Specific Insights - In Beijing, second-hand housing transactions fell to 12,784 units in July, down 15.6% month-on-month and 17.9% year-on-year, with prices decreasing by 0.61% month-on-month and 4.91% year-on-year [7][8] - Shanghai's second-hand housing market saw 16,597 transactions in July, a decrease of 7.9% month-on-month and 6.7% year-on-year, with prices down 0.57% month-on-month and 4.41% year-on-year [13] - Guangzhou's second-hand housing prices fell by 0.82% month-on-month and 5.52% year-on-year, with significant downward pressure due to high inventory levels [23] - Shenzhen's second-hand housing market showed a slight increase in transactions, with 4,656 units sold, up 3.4% month-on-month and 1.8% year-on-year, despite a price drop of 0.55% month-on-month [27] - Nanjing's second-hand housing transactions decreased by 2.6% month-on-month and 27.1% year-on-year, with prices down 0.95% month-on-month and 9.52% year-on-year [37]

Core Viewpoint - The new housing policy in Beijing has led to an immediate positive response in the real estate market, with increased enthusiasm from potential buyers and a rise in both new and second-hand home visits and transactions [1][2][4]. Market Response - Following the announcement of the new policy on August 8, there was a surge in inquiries from clients and homeowners eager to understand the implications for transactions and market trends [2]. - Data from the China Index Academy indicates that over 80% of new residential sales in Beijing from January to July occurred outside the Fifth Ring Road, highlighting this area as a key market segment [2]. - Online platforms like 58 Anjuke reported significant increases in housing search activity over the weekend following the policy change, with new home click rates rising by 14.1% and consultation rates increasing by 24.4% compared to the previous ten days [2]. Sales Activity - Real estate agents reported a notable increase in client viewings and consultations, with one agency in Tongzhou seeing a 20% rise in viewings and a 27% increase in inquiries during the first weekend after the policy change [3]. - Specific projects outside the Fifth Ring Road experienced substantial increases in visitor numbers and sales, such as the Xingyue Times project in Shunyi, which saw over 230 groups visit and 18 units sold, marking a doubling in sales [3]. Market Stability - Industry experts suggest that while the new policy has had a positive short-term impact, the overall market remains stable and requires time to fully respond to the changes [4]. - The policy aims to "reduce inventory and stabilize expectations," with a focus on activating the market in the short term while relying on broader economic improvements for long-term stability [4]. - The market has been through a series of policy changes since last year, and the current adjustments primarily affect buyers looking for additional properties, leading to an increase in second-hand listings [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the new policy signals a shift in market expectations and is likely to accelerate housing demand, although it does not open up opportunities for external buyers [5]. - The first weekend's performance in terms of new and second-hand home registrations was stable, with expectations for increased market activity as time progresses [5].

Core Insights - The real estate market in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced a collective decline in transaction volumes in July, with Shanghai seeing a drop exceeding 40% in new home sales [1][6][9] - Factors contributing to this downturn include extreme heat, typhoon impacts, the fading effects of previous policies, and a stalemate in price expectations between buyers and sellers [1][9] - Experts suggest that a recovery in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes may not occur until September [1][10] Second-hand Housing Market - In Beijing, second-hand home transactions fell to 12,784 units in July, a 15.6% decrease from June and 17.9% lower than the same month in 2024 [3] - Shanghai's second-hand home transactions dropped to 19,337 units, a 7% decrease from June and a 5% decline year-on-year [4] - Guangzhou reported 8,962 second-hand home transactions, down 9.39% from June and 10.68% year-on-year [4] - Shenzhen was an exception, with a 3.4% increase in second-hand home transactions, totaling 4,656 units [4] New Housing Market - The new housing market saw even more significant declines, with Shanghai's new home sales dropping by 40.6% in July, totaling 341,000 square meters [6] - Guangzhou's new home transactions fell by 25% to 4,874 units, with a 46.9% decrease in new supply [6] - Shenzhen's new home sales decreased by 24.1%, with a total of 1,441 units sold [7] Market Analysis - July is traditionally a slow month for real estate, compounded this year by extreme weather and a lack of strong policy support [9] - The market is currently characterized by a price standoff between buyers and sellers, leading to reduced transaction activity [3][9] - Despite the downturn, the overall transaction volumes remain above critical thresholds, indicating some resilience in the market [10] - Future market activity is expected to depend on the introduction of new policies and the resolution of current price expectations [12]

Group 1 - In July, Guangzhou became the first tier city to fully cancel "purchase restrictions, sale restrictions, and price restrictions," leading to a mixed performance in the real estate market [1] - The number of second-hand residential transactions in Guangzhou in July was nearly 9,000, showing a month-on-month decline of 9.39% and a year-on-year decline of 10.68% [1] - Despite the decline in July, the total number of second-hand residential transactions from January to July reached 65,575, representing a significant year-on-year increase of 9.03% [1] Group 2 - Analysts noted that the supply of residential land in Guangzhou has slowed compared to previous years, but the demand scale for 2024 is expected to reach a three-year high [2] - The market is expected to maintain high inventory levels and long de-stocking cycles, indicating a need for policies to stimulate demand [2] - The focus for future policies will be on stabilizing the market and promoting urban renewal, with an emphasis on effective implementation of existing policies [2]

Core Insights - The overall property registration volume in Hong Kong for July reached 7,199 cases, a slight decrease of approximately 1% from June's 7,221 cases, indicating a stable market above the 7,000 mark for two consecutive months, a situation last seen from April to May of the previous year [1] Group 1: Market Activity - The recent property transaction activity is considered quite active, reflecting a positive market sentiment following the easing of bank interest rates and a reduction in trade tensions [1] - The registration cases in July primarily reflect the market conditions of June due to the time required for signing and submitting sale agreements to the land registry [1] Group 2: Residential Property Performance - In the residential sector, excluding public housing, the registration volume for new private homes and second-hand residential properties totaled 6,104 cases in July, a decrease of about 2.7% from June's 6,273 cases, yet still marking the second-highest level in eight months [1] Group 3: Non-Residential Property Performance - The registration volume for non-residential properties, including commercial shops, parking spaces, and others, reached 1,000 cases in July, an increase of approximately 16.4% from June's 859 cases, marking a 23-month high and the first time surpassing 1,000 cases since August 2023 [1]

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is experiencing mixed trends, with new residential prices showing slight increases in core cities while second-hand housing prices are declining [1][3][5]. New Residential Market - In July, the average price of new residential properties in 100 cities was 16,877 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.18% and a year-on-year increase of 2.64% [1]. - First-tier cities saw a month-on-month price increase of 0.36%, while second-tier cities experienced a 0.23% increase, driven by quality improvement projects [3]. - Third and fourth-tier cities, however, faced a month-on-month price decline of 0.19% [3]. Second-Hand Residential Market - The average price of second-hand residential properties in July was 13,585 yuan per square meter, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.77% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.32% [1]. - First-tier cities experienced a month-on-month price drop of 0.61%, while second-tier and third/fourth-tier cities saw declines of 0.84% and 0.77%, respectively [3][11]. Rental Market - The average rental price in 50 key cities was 34.93 yuan per square meter per month, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.07% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.81% [1]. - Rental demand during the graduation season provided some support, but overall rental prices are still under pressure [1][13]. Policy and Market Outlook - The central government is focusing on implementing policies to stabilize the real estate market, including urban renewal and housing rental regulations [4][5]. - The recent Central Urban Work Conference emphasized the transition from rapid urbanization to stable development, aiming to improve existing urban areas rather than expanding [4]. - Local governments are also taking measures to optimize housing policies, such as canceling housing sales restrictions and enhancing public housing fund access [4][5]. Market Trends - The market is expected to maintain some resilience in core cities due to strong fundamentals, although disparities between different cities and regions are likely to persist [8].