晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：地缘局势动荡 国内累库持续 观点：预计价格短期偏强震荡，关注宏观情绪。 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价偏强运行。中东地缘黑天鹅事件发生，伊朗称霍尔木兹 海峡已关闭，将打击所有试图通过的船只，其航运安全直接决定区域铝产 业运转，一旦受阻将引发区域性供应危机并传导至全球。 以伊冲突 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 1 ...

RatingsDirect® 中国房地产观察：供给过剩压制复苏 2026 年 2 月 9 日 版权 © 2026 Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC。版权所有。 本报告不构成评级行动。 今年中国开发商将继续迎接挑战 *指 2025 年年末待售面积相比 2021 年中国楼市进入下行期之前 10 年平均值的增幅。资料来源：国家统计局，标普全球评级。 库存六年连增 新建商品房待售面积（百万平方米） 商品房待售面积 相比行业下行前 平均值的增幅* 我们预测的 2026 年全国新建商品 房销售额降幅 我们预测的 2026 年二手住宅价格 降幅 连续6年年末待售面积同比增加 下行之前10年期间（2011-2020年） 平均值 要点速览 商品房库存积压，意味着中国房地产市场面临着崎岖的复苏之路。2025 年商品房待售面积已连续第 六年增加。供给过剩可能导致价格承压，而价格下跌又会损害购房者信心，形成了一个难以打破的恶 性循环。 主要联系人 陈令华，CFA，FRM 香港 852-2533-3539 edward.chan @spglobal.com 亚太区经济学家 高路易 香港 ...

极目新闻记者 马清妮 与此同时，武汉楼市经过调整之后，房价收入比等指标趋于合理，各个板块都有一些性价比高的热点项目，宜居性明显提高，对本市居民以及外来家庭的吸 引力都在增强，有力支撑了整个市场的成交。 通讯员 武房新 （来源：极目新闻） 2月24日，极目新闻记者从武汉市住房和城市更新局获悉，春节期间（2月15日-22日），武汉市新建商品房网签销售面积8.04万平方米。其中，新建商品住 房成交1.02万平方米，同比2025年春节期间增长28%。 "进入2026年以来，武汉市房地产市场热度居高不下，在往年1-2月份是地产的淡季，今年却走出火热的势头。"武汉承宁府营销负责人徐源介绍，和2025年 相比，近两月来访量明显增高，返乡置业的客户比例显著增加，成交周期也缩短了不少。进入2026年以来，承宁府项目累计来访达903组，新增认购35套， 网签20套，签约金额约6400万。35套新增认购中，来自外地返乡置业的占比突破三成。 中指研究院（华中）市场研究中心主任李国政分析，春节期间武汉楼市亮眼表现源于三大优势的加持：武汉市1月15号就启动了返乡置业购房季活动，加上 春节期间天气晴好，有利于房企的各项营销活动，各大楼盘通 ...

楼幢号：垛山一品雅苑-5号、10号、22号、23号、 20D号、27D号 房屋用途：住宅、车库 户数：住宅284、车库1142 广大购房户： 根据威海市不动产登记中心《关于全面推行购房人办理新建商品房所有权转移登记单方申请的公告》精 神，现将2026年1月份新增购房人可自行申请新建商品房转移登记项目清单进行公示。 在此次公示范围内的新建商品房，购房人可持相关资料自行到威海市不动产登记中心各大厅申请办理新 建商品房转移登记。 2026年1月份新增购房人单方申请新建商品房转移登记项目清单 01项目名称：东发现代城一品雅苑项目 项目开发企业：威海东发房地产开发有限公司 1、购房人身份证明； 2、已网签备案的商品房预售合同或网签现售合同、办理过预告登记的需提供预购商品房预告登记证明 （证明为电子证照的无需提交）； 3、购房发票（税务部门核税使用）； 4、委托他人办理的请提供规定格式的授权委托书或公证书、代理人身份证明。 办理部门及地点 威海市不动产登记中心临港区分中心：朝阳路5-1号临港区政务 位置坐落：高区东涝台村 温馨提示 办理不动产权证书需要携带以下材料原件：（可通过共享获取的无需提交） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing weak performance. The aluminum ingot price is expected to experience a short - term weak callback, and the short - term market fluctuates sharply [1][2][3] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month. The total output of construction steel is expected to be affected by 741,000 tons during this period. Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one stopped on January 5th, most will stop in mid - January, and a few after January 20th. The daily output is expected to be affected by 16,200 tons [1] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, the price center continues to shift downward. The winter storage is sluggish this year, providing weak support for prices [2] Aluminum Ingots - The sharp decline of Shanghai Aluminum was due to the selling of precious metals, triggering risk - aversion sentiment. The market's expectation of loose liquidity was disappointed, and funds fled from risk assets such as commodities. The previous large increase in the non - ferrous metal sector led to profit - taking, intensifying the downward pressure on prices [1] - In January 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. In February, it is expected to decrease month - on - month due to fewer natural days. Some new electrolytic aluminum projects are expected to be put into production stably [2] - As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream demand for raw materials weakens, and the high aluminum price suppresses demand. The enterprise's willingness to cast ingots increases significantly, and the proportion of molten aluminum is expected to drop sharply [2] - Last week, the comprehensive operating rate of aluminum processing was 59.4%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decline from the previous week, showing characteristics of "accelerated seasonal decline and deepened high - price suppression effect". Most sub - sectors' operating rates decreased, and the industry is quickly entering the Spring Festival off - season [2] - As of January 29, the national social inventory of aluminum ingots has reached 782,000 tons, an increase of 330,000 tons compared with the same period in 2025 [2] Later Concerns - For finished products, the concerns are macro - policies and downstream demand [2] - For aluminum ingots, the concerns are changes in macro - expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, the resumption of production at the mine end, and the release of consumption [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current real estate market in China presents significant challenges for homebuyers, particularly first-time buyers, due to high property prices that require substantial financial commitment [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - As of October 2022, the average price of new residential properties in 100 cities reached 16,199 yuan per square meter, while the average price for second-hand homes was 15,945 yuan per square meter, indicating that purchasing a typical home requires at least 1.2 million to 2 million yuan [1] Group 2: Recommendations for First-Time Buyers - Experts advise first-time homebuyers to follow the principle of "buy more, buy existing, and avoid old" to make informed decisions in the current market [3] Group 3: Buying Strategies - "Buy more" suggests prioritizing low-rise residential buildings over high-rise ones due to advantages such as smaller shared areas, better ventilation and lighting, and easier resale potential [4] - "Buy existing" emphasizes the importance of purchasing completed properties to avoid risks associated with unfinished projects and to ensure quality and suitability through direct inspection [4] - "Avoid old" recommends steering clear of properties older than 30 years, as they often face challenges in securing bank loans and have higher depreciation risks compared to new properties [6]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3][4][5] 2) Core Views - For building materials, the price is expected to move in an oscillatory and consolidative manner, with the focus shifting downward and showing a weak performance [2][4] - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to be strong at a high level in the short - term, showing a strong oscillatory trend [2][5] 3) Summary by Related Contents Building Materials - **Production Suspension**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a production suspension during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped production on January 5th, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - **Real - estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - **Market Situation**: The price of building materials continued to decline oscillatory yesterday, reaching a new low. In a situation of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, with low enthusiasm for winter storage and weak price support [4] - **Later - stage Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [4] Aluminum Ingots - **Macroeconomic Factors**: Due to frictions between the US and NATO on the Greenland issue, sanctions on Iran, concerns about the Fed's independence, and uncertainties in tariffs, the US dollar is under pressure, and the overall non - ferrous metals are running strongly [3][5] - **Supply - side Situation**: In the north, some mining areas have reduced production due to weather. In the Henan Xin'an area, bauxite production was suspended due to blizzards and is now gradually resuming. The supply of ore has decreased by about 80% and is gradually recovering. In the south, domestic ore production is stable, and the price of domestic ore is expected to remain stable in the short - term [4] - **Industry Operation**: The overall aluminum processing start - up rate was 60.9%, up 0.7 percentage points from last week. Different sub - industries have different situations, with some affected by environmental protection, weather, etc. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas reached 777,000 tons on January 26, an increase of 28,000 tons from last Monday [4] - **Price Outlook**: The price of aluminum is expected to be strong at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - events, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The real estate market in 2025 ended with a downward trend in fundamentals, but there are positive signals expected in early 2026 [3] - The cumulative decline in sales has widened, but the monthly decline has narrowed, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [4] - The overall investment environment is challenging, with significant declines in both real estate development investment and funds available to real estate companies [4][53] - Despite the downturn, there is an increasing probability that housing prices may stabilize, with a shift in sentiment towards a more optimistic outlook for real estate stocks [4][104] Summary by Sections Investment and Sales Data - In 2025, national real estate development investment reached 82,788 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%. The area of new housing started was 58,770 million square meters, down 20.4%, and the area of completed housing was 42,984 million square meters, down 19.8% [3] - New residential property sales amounted to 88,101 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 8.7%, with sales revenue of 83,937 billion yuan, down 12.6% [3] Market Trends - The decline in sales has been more pronounced cumulatively, but the monthly figures show a narrowing of the decline, suggesting a potential recovery [5] - The proportion of pre-sold housing has decreased, and the growth rate of unsold inventory has slowed down [4][6] - The average selling price of new residential properties in 2025 was 9,527 yuan per square meter, with a year-on-year decline of 4.3% [37] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a more optimistic stance towards real estate stocks, particularly recommending China Jinmao and China Merchants Shekou, as the market shows signs of potential recovery [4][104] - The probability of housing prices stabilizing has increased from "impossible" to "possible," with further improvements expected if the market does not repeat previous patterns of "price for volume" after the Spring Festival [4][104]

1-12月，全市房地产开发企业本年到位资金4416.1亿元，同比下降2.3%。 1月21日，北京市统计局发布2025年1-12月北京市房地产市场运行情况。 一、房地产市场建设情况 图1 全市新建商品房销售面积增速 图2 全市房地产开发企业本年到位资金增速 单位：% 1-12月，全市房地产开发企业房屋新开工面积1156.6万平方米，同比下降10.1%。其中，住宅新开工面 积727.8万平方米，下降4.5%；办公楼35.1万平方米，下降40.2%；商业营业用房58万平方米，下降 11.2%。 单位：% 三、房地产开发企业到位资金情况 1-12月，全市房地产开发企业本年到位资金4416.1亿元，同比下降2.3%。其中，定金及预收款1786.5亿 元，增长0.2%；自筹资金1124.9亿元，下降5.6%;国内贷款624.9亿元，增长2.1%。 全市房屋竣工面积1464.8万平方米，同比下降11.4%。其中，住宅竣工面积746.7万平方米，下降 18.2%；办公楼53.4万平方米，下降35%；商业营业用房123.8万平方米，增长98.3%。 二、房地产市场销售情况 1-12月，全市新建商品房销售面积1041万平方米，同 ...

另外，根据近日国家统计局发布的2025年12月全国70城的房价指数，三亚新建商品住宅销售价格指数实 现0.1%的涨幅。 近几年，海南房地产市场与全国同步处于深度调整期，市场走势备受关注。在1月19日举行的海南自贸 港封关进展情况新闻发布会上，海南省住房和城乡建设厅副厅长吴刚说，2026年1月以来，海口新建商 品房销售均价同比增长2%、环比增长8%，呈现较好的修复趋势。 吴刚表示，海南省住房和城乡建设厅下一步将紧扣自贸港高质量发展主题，加快构建房地产发展新模 式，扎实推动房地产业转型升级，实现高质量发展。 原标题：今年1月以来海南新建商品房销售均价同比环比双增长 编辑：李宏伟 责编：邓萍 审核：赵蕾 "全岛封关为海南房地产市场加快筑底企稳和高质量发展提供了良好契机。"吴刚表示，海南自贸港封关 标志着海南改革开放发展迈入新阶段、迎来新机遇，相信随着一系列自贸港"利好"政策持续出台和红利 释放，海南必将不断集聚产业和人口，房地产作为支撑性产业将发挥重要作用，叠加前期政策效应持续 释放和近期市场平稳回暖等良好因素，"我们对2026年以及'十五五'期间全省房地产市场的发展充满信 心"。 近年来，海南房地产市场因城施策、 ...