晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：长假扰动开工 关注库消走势 投资咨询业务资格： 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝偏强运行。宏观美联储周三公布的 9 月会议记录显示， 美联储官员们一致认为美国就业市场面临的风 ...

克而瑞 金九收官&国庆假期，楼市表现如何？20251009 摘要 2025 年国庆期间，重点城市楼市低迷，天津认购量同比下降 46%，创 近三年新低；长沙认购面积同比降幅近四成，以价换量策略效果有限， 市场观望情绪浓厚。 2025 年十一假期全国商品房成交面积 65.49 万平方米，环比大降 81%，同比下降 20%。一线城市网签量同比增长 53%，二三线城市分 别同比下降 44%和 23%。 2025 年 9 月百强房企操盘金额 2,528 亿元，同比微增 0.4%，为年内 首次正增长。前 9 月累计销售额同比下降 11.8%，但降幅收窄。Top 10 房企降幅仍然较大。 9 月全国百城新建商品房新增供应面积 1,640 万平方米，环比大增 48%，同比下降 14%，主要集中在一二线城市，占总量的 70%。 9 月全国百城新房成交面积 1,443 万平方米，环比微增 4%，同比下降 15%。一线城市成交面积同比增长 3%，二线城市同比下降 12%，三四 线城市持续低迷。 9 月 30 个重点城市平均开盘去化率仅为 38%，较 8 月下降 4 个百分点， 市场信心不足。"金九银十"期间去化率未见显著提升。 9 ...

9月30日，宁乡市住房和城乡建设局、宁乡市自然资源局、宁乡市财政局、宁乡市教育局、长沙住房公 积金管理中心宁乡市管理部、宁乡市征地服务中心等6部门联合发布《关于促进宁乡市房地产平稳健康 高质量发展的若干措施》，全面贯彻落实党中央、国务院"稳楼市"决策部署和省委、省政府工作要求， 重点围绕购住房公积金支持、住房消费补贴、"以旧换新"等十个方面推出举措，以进一步激发市场活 力，推动宁乡房地产平稳健康高质量发展。 八、开展"六进"宣传促销。围绕"宜居宁乡、幸福家园"城市营销宣传主题，开展房地产宣传进乡村、进 机关、进企业、进景区、进商超、进域外"六进"活动，策划房产促销系列活动。 九、加快"好房子"建设。以"安全、舒适、绿色、智慧"为核心指标，全方位优化容积率设置，引导激 励"好房子""好小区""好社区""好城区"建设。支持鼓励房地产开发企业开发建设立体生态住宅建筑、绿 色智能建筑等高品质住宅项目，提升人居环境品质。鼓励第四代住宅建设，容积率计算规则由自然资源 和规划主管部门依据国家有关标准规范确定。支持已出让尚未开工建设的住宅项目依法依规调整规划， 建设"好房子"。 四、持续推行房票安置。延续《宁乡市房屋征收"房 ...

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a significant decline in both volume and price due to a sluggish real estate market, leading to an increase in listings across various cities in China [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The surge in second-hand housing listings has resulted in a supply-demand imbalance, making it increasingly difficult to sell these properties [3]. - Major cities such as Beijing, Shenzhen, and Chongqing have seen listings exceed 100,000 to 200,000 units, indicating a substantial increase in market supply [1]. Group 2: Comparative Analysis - Despite the challenges in selling second-hand homes, they are still considered a better investment compared to new homes due to lower prices and established infrastructure [3][4]. - Many second-hand homes are now priced below new constructions, making them more attractive to buyers [3]. Group 3: Purchase Recommendations - It is advised to avoid purchasing second-hand homes that are over 20 years old due to various issues such as poor living conditions, inadequate property management, and difficulties in securing loans [4][6]. - Older properties often suffer from significant wear and tear, leading to a decline in living quality and potential safety hazards [6][8].

Real Estate Development Investment - In the first eight months, national real estate development investment reached 60,309 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9% [1][10] - Residential investment accounted for 46,382 billion yuan, down 11.9% [1][10] Construction Area and New Starts - The total construction area for real estate development was 643,109 million square meters, reflecting a 9.3% year-on-year decline [3][10] - New construction area was 39,801 million square meters, down 19.5%, with residential new starts at 29,304 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3% [3][10] Sales of New Commercial Housing - New commercial housing sales area was 57,304 million square meters, down 4.7%, with residential sales also decreasing by 4.7% [4][10] - The sales revenue from new commercial housing was 55,015 billion yuan, a decline of 7.3%, with residential sales revenue down 7.0% [4][10] Funding Situation for Real Estate Developers - Funding for real estate developers totaled 64,318 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.0% year-on-year [7][10] - Domestic loans increased slightly by 0.2% to 10,232 billion yuan, while foreign investment fell by 11.5% to 18 million yuan [7][10] Regional Performance - In the eastern region, new commercial housing sales area was 25,651 million square meters, down 7.1%, and sales revenue was 33,263 billion yuan, down 8.1% [12] - The central region saw a sales area of 15,099 million square meters, down 1.4%, with sales revenue of 10,076 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.1% [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [2][4]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a decline, with new residential sales area down 4.7% and sales value down 7.3% year-on-year for the first eight months of 2025. The decline in sales has accelerated, indicating a weakening fundamental outlook [4][25]. - The building materials sector is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics due to government policies aimed at stabilizing growth, including restrictions on new capacity for cement and flat glass [4][47]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector has seen a significant drop in sales, with August figures showing a year-on-year decrease of 10.98% in sales area and 14.76% in sales value. Prices in first, second, and third-tier cities have also declined [4][25]. - Policy adjustments in Shanghai aim to stimulate the market by exempting certain homebuyers from property tax, indicating a trend towards loosening regulations [4][23]. - Recommended companies for investment include Poly Developments (600048), Binjiang Group (002244), and China Merchants Shekou (001979) due to their stable operations and focus on first and second-tier cities [4][25]. Building Materials Sector - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a "Stabilization Growth Work Plan" for the building materials industry, prohibiting new capacity for cement and flat glass, which is expected to alleviate supply-demand conflicts [4][47]. - Cement demand is anticipated to recover due to urban renewal projects and infrastructure construction, with companies like Conch Cement (600585), Taipai Group (002233), and Huaxin Cement (600801) being highlighted for their investment potential [4][47]. - The glass industry is currently facing challenges, but opportunities may arise in the fiberglass sector due to growth in emerging fields such as wind power and electric vehicles, with China Jushi (600176) recommended for investment [4][49].

"金九银十"的房地产经济爆发，除了房企自身的努力营销外，离不开当地政策的支持。 二手房价持续走低，新建楼盘销售面积下降 二手房跌价这两年来已经是老生常谈的话题，据中指研究所调查，今年8月全国十大重点城市二手房价格持续下跌，虽然北、上二手房借助政策释放对于跌 价有了一定的扼制，但由此可见全国大盘依旧处于走低态势。 在这些代表城市中，最抗跌的非成都市莫属。二手房价环比下跌0.19%，同比下跌0.98%，同环比跌幅均有所收窄，虽然成交热度有所下降，但是在大环 境"以价换量"的基础上，对于购房者来说成都的二手房是能给人一定信心的。 根据国家统计局发布的《2025年1-8月份全国房地产市场基本情况》报告中可以看到，全国新建商品房销售面积同比下降4.7%，市场淡季行情有所延续。 下降是不是意味着新盘卖不动了，其实不然。一二线城市一些热门新盘一经推出基本上是秒空，二大环境的下跌除了经济这个主要因素之外，止跌回 稳、"好房子"建设、限购政策等方针对新建商品房销售起到了结构性调整的作用，必然的下跌不可避免，新规项目入市将有效带动部分改善需求释放，市场 活跃度或将迎来阶段性回升。 多地政策优化，提振楼市信心 经过了整个夏天的炎热 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization and recovery, with various regions implementing policies to support housing demand and improve market conditions [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - In the first eight months of the year, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed by 13.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] - The sales revenue of commercial housing fell by 7.3%, with a reduction of 16.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - The year-on-year decline in new residential prices has also narrowed, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing reductions of 0.2, 0.4, and 0.5 percentage points respectively in August [1] Group 2: Financial and Inventory Improvements - From January to August, the funds available to real estate developers decreased by 8%, but this decline is 12.2 percentage points less than the same period last year [2] - The inventory of commercial housing has been reduced for six consecutive months, with a decrease of 3.17 million square meters from July to August [2] - The supply-demand balance in the real estate market is improving, as local governments are reducing new land supply to prevent further imbalance [2] Group 3: Future Potential and Demand - The ongoing urbanization in China and the large stock of existing housing (approximately 35 billion square meters) indicate significant future demand for new construction [2] - There is a continuous increase in demand for "good houses," as urban development shifts from expansion to quality improvement [3] - The risk for real estate companies is gradually decreasing, with progress in debt restructuring and risk management for troubled firms [3]

自然资源部表示，今年以来，多部门协调联动，采取了三方面措施。一是建立部际沟通协调机制。自然 资源部联合相关部门构建部际沟通协调机制，开展常态化沟通会商，共同研究解决涉及跨部门的重大问 题，高效协同推进历史遗留问题化解工作。二是研究提出政策举措。坚持群众最关心什么、最需要什 么，政策举措就解决什么。针对群众已购买国有土地上的住房，因前端环节历史遗留问题导致无法办理 登记的难题，自然资源部与相关部门协调联动，在充分调研论证的基础上，依据相关法律和司法政策， 分类施策，提出了化解存量问题、防止新增问题的政策举措。三是指导地方积极化解问题。采取实地调 研、视频培训、定期调度等方式，督促指导地方用好用足政策举措，积极稳妥化解历史遗留问题，为群 众办好证。各地在党委政府统一领导下，普遍建立了跨部门化解协调机制，结合当地实际研究细化政 策，采取划片包点、定期调度等举措，积极推进各项工作，大力推动问题化解为群众办证。 自然资源部表示，下一步，将与相关部门齐心协力，深化协调联动，强化政策指导，抓好统筹调度，推 动政策举措落地见效，努力让历史遗留问题成为历史，让"小红本"托起更多群众的"安居梦"。 全国累计已化解历史遗留问题房屋 ...

为了把房子卖给更多的港澳居民，侨乡中山调动了民间的"人脉"。 9月17日，中山市住房和城乡建设局正式启动2025年港澳市场全民营销活动，同时扩大2025年"新中山人 安家中山"活动奖补范围。 全民营销是一种打破传统房地产销售模式的卖房方式，核心逻辑是将返佣范围从专业群体扩大到社会公 众，借助公众的人脉网络为房地产项目引流获客，最终促进成交。 根据通知，2025年9月17日至2026年3月31日，凡成功推荐港澳居民在中山范围内购买新建商品房（限住 宅、公寓、商业办公）的推荐人，中山住建局按购房发票票面金额1%（税前）给予现金奖励，房企则 按购房发票票面金额原则上不低于2%（税前）给予现金奖励。按此计算，推荐成功者至少可以获得合 计3%现金奖励。 也就是说，若推荐港澳居民购买了总额100万元的新建商品房，推荐人可至少获得3万元现金。 与此同时，已经实施将近2个月的"新中山人安家中山"活动，购房补贴范围由在中山"购买新建商品住房 且在中山就业的外地户籍人"，扩大至"所有在我市购买新建商品住房的购房人"，购房人最高可获得由 中山财政局按购房发票票面金额2.5%补贴的电子消费券。 相较与香港接壤的深圳和与澳门接壤的珠海 ...