Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline in housing prices across various cities in China, highlighting the changes in new and second-hand residential property prices since September 2021, and provides insights into the current state of the real estate market based on statistical data from the National Bureau of Statistics [2][3][10]. Group 1: New Housing Price Trends - From the new residential sales price index of 70 major cities, new housing prices have shown a continuous month-on-month decline since September 2021, with a slight positive growth observed in the first five months of 2023 [3][10]. - The decline in new housing prices is more pronounced in third-tier cities, which began experiencing negative month-on-month growth from September 2021, while second-tier cities started this trend in October 2021, and first-tier cities followed in September 2022 [5][10]. Group 2: Second-Hand Housing Price Trends - The second-hand housing market has also seen a continuous month-on-month decline since September 2021, with a greater decrease in prices compared to new homes [7][9]. - Similar to new housing, first-tier cities have shown relatively stronger price stability compared to second and third-tier cities, with significant declines starting later and being less severe [9][10]. Group 3: Sales Volume and Average Price Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the national new commodity housing sales area was approximately 45.851 million square meters, down 3.5% year-on-year, while the sales amount was 442.41 billion yuan, down 5.5% year-on-year [11][12]. - The average price of new commodity housing in the first half of 2025 is estimated to be around 9,649 yuan per square meter, which is comparable to the average price from five years ago [11]. - The average price of new residential housing is approximately 10,128 yuan per square meter, indicating a return to levels seen 4-5 years ago [12]. Group 4: Regional Price Variations - In Zhejiang, the average price of new commodity housing in the first half of 2025 is about 15,440 yuan per square meter, returning to 2019 levels [14]. - In Jiangsu, the average price is approximately 9,887 yuan per square meter, reflecting levels from the first half of 2018 [17]. - Other provinces such as Guangdong, Yunnan, and Sichuan also show average prices returning to levels from previous years, indicating a widespread trend across different regions [18][20][21].

中国楼市凛冬：房贷数据背后的深度解析 中国人民银行最新公布的上半年房贷数据显示，一幅楼市降温的图景跃然纸上。全国个人住房贷款余额高达37.74 万亿元，无疑是一个天文数字。然而，与去年同期相比，这一数据却出现了0.1%的下降，这看似微小的降幅，实 则预示着中国房地产市场正在经历一场深刻的变革。 这一现象并非孤立存在。事实上，个人住房贷款余额已连续第二年出现负增长。虽然今年的降幅相较去年的2.1% 有所收窄，但问题的本质并未改变：老百姓偿还房贷的速度，超过了新增贷款的速度。今年上半年，新增房贷仅 为510亿元，而提前还款的规模却十分惊人。银行每放出1元房贷，就有高达24元被提前偿还。曾经售楼处门庭若 市，购房者排队等待贷款审批的景象已成过去，取而代之的是老业主们排队咨询"提前还款是否需要预约"。 总而言之，中国楼市正面临前所未有的挑战。房贷数据只是冰山一角，其背后是购房者信心的缺失、人口结构的 变化以及经济环境的深刻调整。未来，楼市将走向何方，值得我们持续关注。 这种"借钱少、还钱多"的局面，无疑给房地产市场的资金池造成了一个巨大的漏洞，资金流出的速度远超流入。 而房贷余额的缩水，最直接的原因便是房屋销售的疲软 ...

Group 1: Real Estate Development Investment - In the first seven months, the total real estate development investment in Henan Province decreased by 8.0% year-on-year, with residential investment declining by 9.7% [2] - The total construction area of real estate development enterprises fell by 4.9% year-on-year, with residential construction area down by 4.6% [2] - The new construction area for real estate dropped by 21.0%, with residential new construction area decreasing by 21.6% [2] - The completed construction area decreased by 40.2%, with residential completed area also down by 40.2% [2] Group 2: New Commodity Housing Sales and Inventory - In the first seven months, the sales area of new commodity housing decreased by 1.0% year-on-year, with residential sales area down by 1.4% [3] - The sales revenue of new commodity housing fell by 0.2%, with residential sales revenue decreasing by 0.8% [3] - As of the end of July, the inventory of commodity housing increased by 13.7% year-on-year, with residential inventory up by 21.9% [3] Group 3: Funding Situation of Real Estate Development Enterprises - In the first seven months, the funds available to real estate development enterprises increased by 0.3% year-on-year, with domestic loans decreasing by 15.2% [4] - Self-raised funds grew by 1.7%, while deposits and prepayments increased by 7.1% [4] - Personal mortgage loans saw a decline of 7.1% [4]

单位：% 1-7月，全市房地产开发企业本年到位资金2467.2亿元，同比增长11.2%。 8月18日，北京市统计局发布2025年1-7月北京市房地产市场运行情况。 一、房地产市场建设情况 1-7月，全市房地产开发企业房屋新开工面积769.5万平方米，同比下降2.6%。其中，住宅新开工面积 476.1万平方米，下降4%；办公楼26.7万平方米，增长39.7%；商业营业用房45.4万平方米，增长 44.1%。 全市房屋竣工面积636.3万平方米，同比增长25%。其中，住宅竣工面积320万平方米，增长8.9%；办公 楼20.6万平方米，增长4.9%；商业营业用房62.6万平方米，增长1.4倍。 二、房地产市场销售情况 1-7月，全市新建商品房销售面积601万平方米，同比增长2.5%。其中，住宅销售面积389.8万平方米， 下降6.8%；办公楼42.7万平方米，增长9.3%；商业营业用房35.2万平方米，增长13.8%。 图1 全市新建商品房销售面积增速 三、房地产开发企业到位资金情况 1-7月，全市房地产开发企业本年到位资金2467.2亿元，同比增长11.2%。其中，定金及预收款938.8亿 元，增长4.1%；自筹 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector in China has entered a deep adjustment phase, with significant declines in investment and sales, indicating a prolonged downturn in the market [1][36][60]. Group 1: Investment and Sales Data - From January to July, national real estate development investment reached 53,580 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%, with residential investment at 41,208 billion yuan, down 10.9% [2][24]. - New commercial housing sales area totaled 51,560 million square meters, down 4.0% year-on-year, with sales revenue at 49,566 billion yuan, a decline of 6.5% [7][24]. - The downward trend in real estate investment began in April, marking a return to double-digit declines [5][10]. Group 2: Regional Performance - All major regions, including the East, Central, West, and Northeast, experienced declines in real estate investment, sales area, and sales revenue [10][12]. - The East region saw the largest drop in both investment and sales, with investment down 14.0% and sales area down 6.2% [12][14]. Group 3: Mortgage and Loan Trends - In the first seven months, personal mortgage loans amounted to 7,918 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3% [22][24]. - The central bank reported a significant reduction in household loans in July, with a decrease of 4,893 billion yuan, indicating a trend of negative growth in mortgage lending since April [15][21]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Consumer Behavior - The market has shifted to a state of observation, with consumers reluctant to commit to purchases due to high prices and economic uncertainty [36][38]. - The concept of "demand gap" has emerged, where high property prices prevent many potential buyers from entering the market [36][49]. Group 5: Long-term Trends and Economic Factors - The real estate market has been in a downward spiral for over four years, influenced by macroeconomic conditions, income stagnation, and demographic shifts [36][44][60]. - The population has been declining, which directly impacts the real estate market, as population growth is a key determinant of housing demand [44][46].

Group 1 - The new housing purchase policy in Beijing allows for unlimited purchases outside the Fifth Ring Road for qualified buyers, indicating a significant shift in the market dynamics [1] - The new policy is expected to directly benefit the new housing market, particularly in areas outside the Fifth Ring Road, where over 80% of new residential sales occurred from January to July this year [4] - The impact of the policy will vary by location, with areas like Haidian, Chaoyang, and Yizhuang likely to see more pronounced benefits due to their concentration of industries and potential buyer demographics [4] Group 2 - The increase in foot traffic at sales offices suggests a growing interest in properties, with some developments experiencing a surge in visitors leading to temporary staffing adjustments [1] - The policy is anticipated to enhance the buyer pool for new homes in the Fifth Ring Road area, which is predominantly where new residential properties are located [4] - The favorable impact will be more significant for lower-priced properties with good amenities, indicating a potential shift in buyer preferences [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term fluctuations of steel prices will increase, and the overall trend will be relatively strong [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Real Estate Market - From July 21st to 27th, the total transaction (signed) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.4137 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 34.1%; the total transaction (signed) area of second - hand housing was 2.1341 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 5.8% [2] Home Appliance Industry - The latest production scheduling report of three major white goods released by Industry Online shows that the total scheduled production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August 2025 is 26.97 million units, a 4.9% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year [2] Steel Industry - On July 29th, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,343 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the average profit was - 21 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was 79 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 7 yuan/ton [2] - Market news indicates that there will be restrictions on pollutant emissions in six provinces in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region and surrounding areas before the September military parade. Affected by this news, steel prices rebounded significantly, basically recovering the previous day's decline. Currently, the fundamentals of steel have not changed much, and the market trend is mainly dominated by macro factors and market sentiment [2]

Economic Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, ranking among the top major economies globally [1] - The per capita disposable income for residents reached 21,840 yuan, also reflecting a nominal growth of 5.3% compared to the same period last year [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a stable yet decreasing trend in domestic prices [1] Real Estate Market Changes - The real estate market continued to experience a decline in both volume and price, with new residential sales area down by 3.5% and sales value down by 5.5% in the first half of 2025 [5] - A significant change in housing prices is expected, with a divergence in price trends across different cities; cities with previously larger declines may see a slowdown, while major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen may face further price drops [5] - The pre-sale system for commercial housing is anticipated to be gradually abolished, with an increase in the proportion of completed homes for sale, allowing buyers to view properties before purchasing [7] - The government plans to accelerate the market entry of affordable housing, aiming to provide 6 million units over the next five years, which will likely reduce costs for buyers and exert downward pressure on market prices [7] Automotive Market Dynamics - The automotive market is experiencing a price reduction trend, with many brands reducing prices by 20,000 to 30,000 yuan for mid-range vehicles and up to 90,000 yuan for luxury cars [9] - Factors contributing to this price reduction include an influx of new energy vehicles, increased competition from tech companies entering the automotive sector, and a decline in demand due to reduced middle-class incomes [9] Banking and Savings Landscape - Concerns are rising that holding cash may become less valuable due to excessive money supply, with M2 reaching 326 trillion yuan, over twice the GDP of 2024 [11] - Despite a slight decline in CPI, the economy is currently experiencing deflation rather than inflation, as excess money is not circulating into the economy [11] - Although deposit rates have fallen to historic lows, further declines are expected to be limited, as extremely low rates may lead to significant withdrawals from banks, increasing financing difficulties [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a significant recovery in Hubei's real estate market, with new residential sales and second-hand housing transactions showing positive growth in the first half of 2025 [1][2][3] - In the first half of 2025, Hubei province's new residential sales area reached 25.147 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, while second-hand housing transactions totaled 12.214 million square meters, up 12.5% [1][2] - A total of 14 cities in Hubei reported positive growth in new housing sales, with 7 cities exceeding the provincial average growth rate [2] Group 2 - Hubei's government has implemented various policies to stimulate the housing market, including financial incentives for homebuyers and the construction of affordable housing [4][5] - The province has accumulated 328,000 units of affordable rental housing during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with over 230,000 units already in use [2] - In the first half of 2025, Hubei's new housing construction area was 13.161 million square meters, reflecting a 5.6% increase, marking four consecutive months of growth [2] Group 3 - Wuhan's real estate market showed robust performance, with a 14.8% year-on-year increase in new housing sales area, reaching 6.154 million square meters [4] - The average decommissioning cycle for new housing in Wuhan has decreased to 12 months, indicating a healthy turnover in the market [4] - IChang city reported a 12.69% year-on-year increase in new housing sales area in the first half of 2025, with significant financial support provided through housing subsidies [5]

Economic Overview - Beijing's GDP grew by 5.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2023, reaching 25,029.2 billion yuan [2][3] - The contribution rate of the information transmission, software, and IT services, financial, and industrial sectors to economic growth was 87.0%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [1][4] Real Estate Market - New residential property sales area increased by 5.4%, with pure commodity residential sales up by 33.8% [1][5] - The area of second-hand residential transactions saw a 22% increase, while transaction volume rose by 18.6% [1][5] - Real estate development investment decreased by 7.5%, and the total construction area fell by 8.0% [3][4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 14.1%, with equipment purchase investment surging by 99.0%, accounting for 28.2% of total fixed asset investment [2][3] - High-tech industry investment remained active, increasing by 72.9%, particularly in information services, automotive manufacturing, and electronics [3][4] Consumer Market - Total market consumption in Beijing grew by 0.9%, while consumer prices fell by 0.3% [3][4] - Service consumption accounted for nearly 60% of total household spending, indicating a shift towards service-oriented consumption [4] Employment and Income - The urban surveyed unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1% [1][2] - Per capita disposable income reached 45,144 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, with a real increase of 5.1% after adjusting for price factors [1][2]