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2026年开始,中国贬值最快的不是钞票,而是这4样东西?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-04 22:45
在很多人看来,国内贬值最快的是钞票,未来钱会越来越不值钱。主要理由有两个:一个是,央行货币超发严重。截至2025年11月末,广义货币(M2)余 额为336.99万亿元,同比增长8%。M2是GDP的2倍。未来物价出现上涨基本没有什么悬念。而另一个是,银行存款利率越来越低,储户存款利息收入跑不赢 通胀水平。此外,储户存在银行里的本金的购买力也是一年不如一年。 但事实上,由于目前国内经济处于通缩周期,2026年中国贬值最快的肯定不是钞票。数据显示,2025年1-11月全国居民消费价格指数(CPI)同比与上年同 期持平,即增长0%。这一数据表明当前物价水平整体稳定。这背后主要原因是,超发的货币在金融体系内空转,并没有流向商品市场。而在进入到2026年 之后,有以下这4样东西贬值最快: 第一样,二手房还会继续贬值 从2022年开始,国内房价进入到长期调整的趋势之中。先是郑州、天津、武汉等二三线城市房价下跌,在进入到2023年之后,上海、深圳等一线城市房价也 进入到了调整的队伍中来。现如今,国内房价已经连跌4年了。而在进入到2026年之后,前期调整幅度较大的二三线城市的房价跌幅会放缓,而像上海、深 圳等一线城市的房价会出 ...
未来5年,中国贬值最快的不是现金,而是这4样东西
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 14:25
Core Viewpoint - The fastest depreciating asset in China over the next five years is not cash, but rather real estate, automobiles, luxury goods, and university degrees due to various economic factors and changing consumer behavior [1][3][5]. Group 1: Economic Context - As of June, the broad money supply (M2) in China reached 330.29 trillion yuan, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating severe monetary overexpansion [1]. - The current economic growth rate has significantly slowed, reducing the likelihood of hyperinflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a slight deflation of -0.1% in the first half of 2025 [3]. Group 2: Depreciating Assets - **Real Estate**: Since 2022, housing prices have been in a long-term adjustment phase, with an average decline of 30% from historical highs, and some cities experiencing declines over 60% [5][7]. - **Automobiles**: A price war among domestic and foreign car brands is leading to significant depreciation, with mid-range cars dropping by 20,000 to 30,000 yuan and luxury brands seeing reductions of nearly 100,000 yuan [9]. - **Luxury Goods**: The global luxury goods market has seen a decrease of 50 million consumers, with 65.9% of consumers reducing purchases due to perceived low value for money, leading to price cuts from brands like Gucci and Burberry [11]. - **University Degrees**: The rapid increase in university enrollment has led to a devaluation of degrees, as employers now prioritize experience over academic qualifications, resulting in a surplus of graduates in the job market [13].