在很多人眼里，未来5年，国内贬值最快的是现金。主要原因是，我国央行货币超发严重，截至2025年8月末，中国广义货币供应量M2总额为331.98万亿 元，同比增长8.8%。M2规模是GDP的2倍，未来现金会越来越不值钱。但实际上，2025年8月份，全国居民消费价格同比下降0.4%。国内经济总体呈现通货 紧缩的趋势。 而导致货币超发严重，经济呈现通缩的原因有两个：一个是国内超发的货币在金融体系内空转，并没有流向社会。这就导致了社会各界都在喊缺钱。超发货 币之所以没有流向实体经济，主要是市场信心恢复还需要较长时间。 另一个是，现在实体经济都不景气，居民收入增长放缓或下降，消费需求出现萎缩。如此一来，企业生产出来的商品，库存积压严重，为了及时回笼资金， 只好把商品降价出售。 对于当前国内通缩的经济周期，有业内人士提醒大家：不出5年，国内贬值最快的不是现金，而是这4样东西，普通家庭要注意了。他们分别是：①房子；② 车子；③学历；④收藏品。让我们一起来了解一下： 第一，房子将逐步回归"居住属性" ②现在国内居民收入增长放缓或下降，已经支撑不起当前的高房价。③中国已经进入到老龄化社会。老年人越来越多，都有了属于自己的房子。 ...

这场由央行主导的财富转移，迫使每一个普通人都要主动思考：在货币持续贬值的时代，我的钱该"藏"在哪些资产里，才能跑赢这场隐形的战争？ 你是否感觉自己的存款账户数字虽然在增长，但买东西时却越来越"不够用"？这不是错觉，这是央行**"印钞机"**开动后，你的购买力正在被稀释的残酷现 实。 在全球经济面临挑战、各国央行不得不持续使用宽松货币政策的背景下，**"货币超发"**已经成为一种常态。这意味着，现金正在持续贬值，你的钱如果不 工作，就注定在缩水。 为了跑赢货币贬值，你的投资组合必须满足两个条件：稀缺性和成长性。 1. "锚定"稀缺性：黄金与硬资产 资产价格的通胀： 新增的资金会优先流向金融市场和优质资产，推高股票、房产、黄金等资产的价格。这形成了所谓的**"资产价格通胀"**。 富人越富的秘密： 富人持有大量的资产，他们的财富随着资产价格上涨而增长；而普通人持有大量现金和低效存款，他们的财富购买力却在持续下 降。货币超发，是放大贫富差距的隐形推手。 黄金： 在数千年的历史中，黄金一直是抵抗法定货币贬值的最终防线。它不依赖任何政府信用，总量有限。配置一定比例的黄金ETF或实物黄金，可 以作为投资组合的"避险仓"， ...

在进入到2025年之后，我国社会出现了一个奇怪的现象。一边是国内货币超发严重。数据显示，截至2025年7月末，中国广义货币（M2）余额为329.94万亿 元人民币，同比增长8.8%。M2是GDP的2倍。另一边是，企业缺钱、政府缺钱、老百姓也缺钱。我们开始进入到"缺钱时代"。 而导致国内社会进入到"缺钱时代"的主要原因就是，大量的超发货币在金融体系内空转，并没有流向社会。之所以会出现这样的结果，就是国内各类市场对 未来信心不足。而这个信心的恢复是需要有一定时间的。正是由于"缺钱时代"的到来，社会正在悄悄出现以下这5大变化，你有没有注意到？ 由于很多居民的收入增长放缓，甚至出现下跌。不少人在超市或菜场购买的蔬菜都是像土豆、大白菜、小青菜、豆芽等低价蔬菜。而那些菠菜、香椿、羽衣 甘蓝等高价蔬菜，购买的人就比较少。此外，越来越多的居民不仅购买低价蔬菜，而且每次买多少就吃多少，这样可以避免因购买蔬菜过多而倒掉的浪费。 过去很多人购买香烟，就选中华、玉溪、和天下等这类名贵香烟。而现如今，10元钱的烟成为热卖，而高端香烟却无人问津。便宜香烟热卖的原因是，现在 很多人收入下降，购买便宜烟可以过过烟瘾，而不愿意再买高价烟。同时 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. stock market shows strong performance, but 87.5% of stocks are either stagnant or declining, indicating a misleading overall market health [1][9][10] - Japan's economy remains sluggish, and the outlook for the Japanese stock market is not optimistic [1][13] - The European economy is largely following the U.S. trend, with concerns about sustainability once military spending increases cease [1][14] Group 2: Asset Allocation and Investment Strategy - Emphasis on growth in asset allocation, particularly in technology and innovative pharmaceuticals, driven by technological advancements [1][10] - Current corporate profit growth of 2.5% is insufficient to support a bull market in A-shares, which is characterized as a structural bull market [1][19] - Long-term bullish outlook on gold, with a recommendation to adjust asset allocation to 50% stocks, 30% bonds, and 20% gold [1][21][24] Group 3: Economic Challenges and Opportunities - The global economy is entering a phase of high volatility and low growth, with significant unresolved issues such as aging populations and national debts [3][4][5] - The AI revolution is seen as a potential driver for new business models and the emergence of dominant companies, similar to the post-dot-com bubble era [2][25] - Structural opportunities and risks are concentrated in technology stocks, with a potential for market consolidation in the AI sector [2][25]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The rapid depreciation of cash is anticipated in the coming years due to severe monetary overexpansion in China, with M2 reaching 330.29 trillion yuan and a year-on-year growth of 8.3% as of June 2025 [1] - The current economic environment is characterized by deflation, with the CPI index showing a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and year-on-year stability [1][3] Group 2: Real Estate Market - Housing prices have been declining since 2022, with an average national price drop exceeding 30%, and some cities experiencing declines over 50% [5] - Factors contributing to the continued decline in housing prices include an aging population leading to reduced demand, an oversupply of housing with 600 million units available, and decreased household income affecting purchasing power [5][6] Group 3: Education and Employment - The value of university degrees is diminishing, with 12.22 million graduates expected in 2025, leading to increased competition for jobs and many graduates resorting to low-skill employment [8] - The disconnect between university education and practical job skills is causing employers to prefer experienced candidates over fresh graduates [8] Group 4: Automotive Industry - The automotive market is experiencing significant price reductions, with domestic mid-range cars dropping by 20,000 to 30,000 yuan and imported brands by nearly 100,000 yuan [10] - Contributing factors to the price decline include an influx of electric vehicles leading to market saturation, aggressive pricing strategies from tech companies entering the automotive sector, and reduced consumer demand from middle-class families [10]

Core Viewpoint - Experts believe that the era of rapid price increases in China is approaching, primarily due to severe monetary overproduction by the central bank, with M2 reaching 330.29 trillion yuan by June 2025, which is double the GDP. However, instead of inflation, the economy is entering a deflationary cycle, with prices of goods like cars, houses, and luxury items still in a downward adjustment phase [1][3]. Economic Conditions - The deflationary cycle in the domestic economy is attributed to two main factors: despite significant monetary overproduction, much of the excess liquidity is not entering the goods or capital markets but is circulating within the financial system due to insufficient investment and consumption confidence. This has led to falling prices in the goods market [3]. - Additionally, the sluggish performance of the real economy has resulted in stagnant or declining household income, leading to a rapid shrinkage in consumer demand. Consequently, businesses face severe inventory backlogs and are compelled to lower prices to recover funds [3]. Investment Recommendations - As the economy enters a deflationary period, industry insiders advise caution regarding asset depreciation, suggesting that investors should avoid certain actions: - Do not chase high stock prices, as the recent bull market in A-shares is driven by capital inflow from low bank deposit rates, making it unsustainable [7][9]. - Exercise caution when purchasing wealth management products, as the market has seen an increase in losses, with many investors facing principal losses due to declining money market yields and rising bond market risks [11]. - Avoid investing in real estate, as the market has been in a long-term adjustment since 2022, with average housing prices dropping by 30% from their peak, and some cities experiencing declines of over 60% [13]. - Refrain from blind entrepreneurship, as the success rate is low in a shrinking market, with rising costs and intense competition posing significant challenges [15]. Market Outlook - Starting in September, there may be a need to prepare for asset depreciation, as both real estate and stock markets exhibit significant bubbles and lack long-term investment value. In a deflationary context, risks associated with bank wealth management products and entrepreneurship are high, potentially leading to principal losses. It is recommended to consider low-risk investment products, such as government bonds and large-denomination certificates of deposit, to preserve capital and take advantage of future investment opportunities when asset bubbles burst [16].

Core Viewpoint - The fastest depreciating asset in China over the next five years is not cash, but rather real estate, automobiles, luxury goods, and university degrees due to various economic factors and changing consumer behavior [1][3][5]. Group 1: Economic Context - As of June, the broad money supply (M2) in China reached 330.29 trillion yuan, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating severe monetary overexpansion [1]. - The current economic growth rate has significantly slowed, reducing the likelihood of hyperinflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a slight deflation of -0.1% in the first half of 2025 [3]. Group 2: Depreciating Assets - **Real Estate**: Since 2022, housing prices have been in a long-term adjustment phase, with an average decline of 30% from historical highs, and some cities experiencing declines over 60% [5][7]. - **Automobiles**: A price war among domestic and foreign car brands is leading to significant depreciation, with mid-range cars dropping by 20,000 to 30,000 yuan and luxury brands seeing reductions of nearly 100,000 yuan [9]. - **Luxury Goods**: The global luxury goods market has seen a decrease of 50 million consumers, with 65.9% of consumers reducing purchases due to perceived low value for money, leading to price cuts from brands like Gucci and Burberry [11]. - **University Degrees**: The rapid increase in university enrollment has led to a devaluation of degrees, as employers now prioritize experience over academic qualifications, resulting in a surplus of graduates in the job market [13].

Group 1 - The long-term outlook indicates that the dollar credit system is under challenge due to excessive monetary issuance and the monetization of fiscal deficits, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe asset amid global geopolitical instability [1] - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally suggests that gold may become a new pricing anchor, providing upward momentum for precious metals [1] - The People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold reserves, reporting a total of 73.9 million ounces as of the end of June, with an increase of 70,000 ounces month-on-month, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [1] Group 2 - The gold stock ETF (code: 517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (code: 931238), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting 50 large-cap listed companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales from the mainland and Hong Kong markets [1] - The index constituents include gold mining companies and jewelry firms, reflecting significant industry concentration characteristics [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF Initiated Link C (021674) and Initiated Link A (021673) [1]

Economic Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, ranking among the top major economies globally [1] - The per capita disposable income for residents reached 21,840 yuan, also reflecting a nominal growth of 5.3% compared to the same period last year [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a stable yet decreasing trend in domestic prices [1] Real Estate Market Changes - The real estate market continued to experience a decline in both volume and price, with new residential sales area down by 3.5% and sales value down by 5.5% in the first half of 2025 [5] - A significant change in housing prices is expected, with a divergence in price trends across different cities; cities with previously larger declines may see a slowdown, while major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen may face further price drops [5] - The pre-sale system for commercial housing is anticipated to be gradually abolished, with an increase in the proportion of completed homes for sale, allowing buyers to view properties before purchasing [7] - The government plans to accelerate the market entry of affordable housing, aiming to provide 6 million units over the next five years, which will likely reduce costs for buyers and exert downward pressure on market prices [7] Automotive Market Dynamics - The automotive market is experiencing a price reduction trend, with many brands reducing prices by 20,000 to 30,000 yuan for mid-range vehicles and up to 90,000 yuan for luxury cars [9] - Factors contributing to this price reduction include an influx of new energy vehicles, increased competition from tech companies entering the automotive sector, and a decline in demand due to reduced middle-class incomes [9] Banking and Savings Landscape - Concerns are rising that holding cash may become less valuable due to excessive money supply, with M2 reaching 326 trillion yuan, over twice the GDP of 2024 [11] - Despite a slight decline in CPI, the economy is currently experiencing deflation rather than inflation, as excess money is not circulating into the economy [11] - Although deposit rates have fallen to historic lows, further declines are expected to be limited, as extremely low rates may lead to significant withdrawals from banks, increasing financing difficulties [13]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The future expectation is that cash will depreciate rapidly due to severe domestic currency overproduction, with M2 reaching 330 trillion, double that of the US and more than the combined total of Europe and Japan [2] - Despite the expectation of inflation, the economy is currently in a deflationary cycle, with CPI down 0.1% year-on-year in the first half of the year, indicating a trend of stable but declining prices [2] - The lack of rapid depreciation of currency is attributed to two main reasons: insufficient confidence among businesses and consumers leading to a shrinking loan market, and a weak real economy causing reduced consumer income and spending power [2] Group 2: Real Estate Market - Since 2022, domestic housing prices have entered a long-term adjustment phase, with declines observed in second and third-tier cities, and first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen also experiencing price drops [5][7] - In Shanghai, housing prices have fallen from over 90,000 yuan per square meter to over 60,000 yuan, a decline exceeding 30%, with expectations of further decreases as prices return to reasonable levels [5][7] - The decline in housing prices is driven by three factors: extensive real estate regulation since 2016, reduced consumer income and purchasing power, and a prolonged decline in prices leading to a lack of investment appeal [7] Group 3: Automotive Market - The automotive market is experiencing a price drop, with some models from brands like Honda and Chevrolet seeing reductions of over 60,000 yuan, while domestic brands like Geely and BYD are also engaging in price promotions [6][9] - Average price reductions in the automotive sector range from 20,000 to 30,000 yuan, with some models dropping from 220,000 yuan to 180,000 yuan, indicating a continuing price war in the coming years [6][9] - Factors contributing to the decline in automotive prices include an oversupply due to the influx of electric vehicles, reduced purchasing plans among middle-income consumers, and increased competition from tech companies entering the automotive sector [9]