Core Viewpoint - Experts believe that the era of rapid price increases in China is approaching, primarily due to severe monetary overproduction by the central bank, with M2 reaching 330.29 trillion yuan by June 2025, which is double the GDP. However, instead of inflation, the economy is entering a deflationary cycle, with prices of goods like cars, houses, and luxury items still in a downward adjustment phase [1][3]. Economic Conditions - The deflationary cycle in the domestic economy is attributed to two main factors: despite significant monetary overproduction, much of the excess liquidity is not entering the goods or capital markets but is circulating within the financial system due to insufficient investment and consumption confidence. This has led to falling prices in the goods market [3]. - Additionally, the sluggish performance of the real economy has resulted in stagnant or declining household income, leading to a rapid shrinkage in consumer demand. Consequently, businesses face severe inventory backlogs and are compelled to lower prices to recover funds [3]. Investment Recommendations - As the economy enters a deflationary period, industry insiders advise caution regarding asset depreciation, suggesting that investors should avoid certain actions: - Do not chase high stock prices, as the recent bull market in A-shares is driven by capital inflow from low bank deposit rates, making it unsustainable [7][9]. - Exercise caution when purchasing wealth management products, as the market has seen an increase in losses, with many investors facing principal losses due to declining money market yields and rising bond market risks [11]. - Avoid investing in real estate, as the market has been in a long-term adjustment since 2022, with average housing prices dropping by 30% from their peak, and some cities experiencing declines of over 60% [13]. - Refrain from blind entrepreneurship, as the success rate is low in a shrinking market, with rising costs and intense competition posing significant challenges [15]. Market Outlook - Starting in September, there may be a need to prepare for asset depreciation, as both real estate and stock markets exhibit significant bubbles and lack long-term investment value. In a deflationary context, risks associated with bank wealth management products and entrepreneurship are high, potentially leading to principal losses. It is recommended to consider low-risk investment products, such as government bonds and large-denomination certificates of deposit, to preserve capital and take advantage of future investment opportunities when asset bubbles burst [16].

在很多人看来，未来5年，中国贬值最快的是现金。主要原因是，6月末，广义货币(M2)余额330.29万亿元，同比增长8.3%。而M2的余额是GDP的2倍，这意 味着国内货币超发严重。不仅如此，现在银行存款利率已经跌到 "1字头"。把钱存在银行里面，不仅存款利率跑不赢通货膨胀，而且存款本金的购买力每年 也会大幅缩水。 但实际上，未来5年，中国贬值最快的并不是现金，主要有两个方面的原因：一个是，改革开放之后，国内物价总体呈现快速上升的趋势，因为我国经济每 年以10%以上的速度增长，这就会带来较高的通胀率。而现如今，国内经济增速已经大幅放缓。所以，未来出现恶性通货膨胀的概率并不大。 另一个是，现在国内物价总体呈现"稳中有降"的趋势。2025年上半年CPI是负0.1%。说明经济处于通缩的周期。而且这个通缩周期将会持续较长的一段时 间。所以，未来国内大概率不会发生恶性通胀，而是长期处于通缩状况。 第三，奢侈品 从2022年开始，国内各地的房价就进入到了长期调整的趋势之中。先是郑州、石家庄、天津等二三线城市房价出现下跌。然后，像上海、深圳等一线城市的 房价出现下跌。到目前为止，国内平均房价已经从历史高位跌去了30%。而像涿 ...

相关机构表示，长期看，在货币超发及财政赤字货币化背景下，美元信用体系受到挑战；加上全球地缘 动荡频发推动资产储备多元化，黄金作为安全资产的需求持续提升。全球"去美元化"的趋势使得黄金有 望成为新一轮定价锚，使得贵金属有望具备上行动能。央行购金趋势仍在持续，中国央行公布最新黄金 储备数据显示，6月末黄金储备7390万盎司，环比继续增加7万盎司，这是中国央行连续第八个月增持黄 金。后续可持续关注地缘政治形势、全球宏观经济走势及全球央行购金情况。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF发起联接C（021674），国泰中证沪深 港黄金产业股票ETF发起联接A（021673）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 黄金股票ETF（代码：517400）跟踪的是SSH黄金股票指数（代码：931238）， ...

Economic Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, ranking among the top major economies globally [1] - The per capita disposable income for residents reached 21,840 yuan, also reflecting a nominal growth of 5.3% compared to the same period last year [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a stable yet decreasing trend in domestic prices [1] Real Estate Market Changes - The real estate market continued to experience a decline in both volume and price, with new residential sales area down by 3.5% and sales value down by 5.5% in the first half of 2025 [5] - A significant change in housing prices is expected, with a divergence in price trends across different cities; cities with previously larger declines may see a slowdown, while major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen may face further price drops [5] - The pre-sale system for commercial housing is anticipated to be gradually abolished, with an increase in the proportion of completed homes for sale, allowing buyers to view properties before purchasing [7] - The government plans to accelerate the market entry of affordable housing, aiming to provide 6 million units over the next five years, which will likely reduce costs for buyers and exert downward pressure on market prices [7] Automotive Market Dynamics - The automotive market is experiencing a price reduction trend, with many brands reducing prices by 20,000 to 30,000 yuan for mid-range vehicles and up to 90,000 yuan for luxury cars [9] - Factors contributing to this price reduction include an influx of new energy vehicles, increased competition from tech companies entering the automotive sector, and a decline in demand due to reduced middle-class incomes [9] Banking and Savings Landscape - Concerns are rising that holding cash may become less valuable due to excessive money supply, with M2 reaching 326 trillion yuan, over twice the GDP of 2024 [11] - Despite a slight decline in CPI, the economy is currently experiencing deflation rather than inflation, as excess money is not circulating into the economy [11] - Although deposit rates have fallen to historic lows, further declines are expected to be limited, as extremely low rates may lead to significant withdrawals from banks, increasing financing difficulties [13]

Group 1 - The core issue is the paradox of high money supply (M2 over 326 trillion, up 7% year-on-year) leading to deflation rather than inflation, as evidenced by the CPI data showing a 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year decline [1][3][4] - The first reason for the low prices is that the excess money is not circulating in the economy but is stuck in banks and financial institutions, similar to water flowing in pipes without reaching the fields [3] - The second reason is that consumers are hesitant to spend due to a challenging economic environment, leading to reduced demand and price drops as businesses try to clear excess inventory [4] Group 2 - Cash holders benefit from increased purchasing power during deflation, as prices for goods like pork and cars have significantly decreased, allowing them to buy more with the same amount of money [6][12] - Cash provides a hedge against investment risks, as many have faced significant losses in stocks and funds, making bank savings a safer option despite lower interest rates [8][12] - Having cash allows individuals to respond to emergencies or job losses without immediate financial pressure, providing a buffer during uncertain times [10][12] Group 3 - Cash holders can take advantage of potential investment opportunities when asset prices return to reasonable levels after deflation, positioning themselves for future gains [12] - The economic landscape is dynamic, and while cash is valuable now, it is essential to plan for future changes and diversify asset allocation to navigate different economic conditions effectively [14]

Core Insights - The domestic economy is experiencing a paradox where there is significant monetary overproduction, with M2 balance reaching approximately 325 trillion yuan, double the GDP, while all sectors of society are facing a cash shortage [1] - The lack of confidence in various markets is leading to a prolonged recovery period for restoring trust in the economy [1] Changes in Economic Behavior - Change 1: Government and public sector jobs are no longer seen as a "safe haven," with plans to reduce non-staff personnel by 20% annually in Heilongjiang Province and salary cuts in various regions due to declining fiscal revenues [3][5] - Change 2: The number of homebuyers is decreasing despite various market stimulus policies, as falling property prices and reduced incomes lead to a pessimistic outlook on future housing prices [3][7] - Change 3: More individuals are choosing to save money in banks, with new deposits reaching 9.22 trillion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, driven by a desire to prepare for uncertainties like unemployment and health issues [3][9] - Change 4: There is a noticeable downgrade in consumer spending, with high-end goods seeing reduced sales while demand for low-cost options in dining and entertainment is increasing due to stagnant or declining incomes [3][11] - Change 5: Marriage and birth rates are experiencing a sharp decline, with marriage registrations dropping to 1.81 million pairs in the first quarter of 2025, a decrease of 159,000 pairs year-on-year, and birth rates falling to 1.95 million, the lowest in nearly a decade [3][14][15]

Group 1 - The current economic environment is characterized by deflation despite significant monetary expansion, with M2 surpassing 326 trillion and a year-on-year growth of 7% [1][3] - The contradiction between monetary expansion and deflation is attributed to the fact that much of the money remains within the financial system and does not circulate into the economy, coupled with reduced consumer purchasing power due to income loss and unemployment [3][4] - Prices of essential goods and assets have decreased significantly, indicating that cash is becoming more valuable in a deflationary environment, with examples such as pork prices dropping from 28 yuan to 17 yuan per jin and car prices falling from 250,000 yuan to 180,000 yuan [6][4] Group 2 - Holding cash provides a hedge against investment risks, as many individuals have faced substantial losses in stock markets and other investment vehicles, with average losses for stock investors reaching 140,000 yuan last year [8][10] - Cash reserves are crucial for emergencies, allowing individuals to manage unexpected situations such as job loss or medical emergencies without financial strain [10] - Cash holders are positioned to seize investment opportunities when market conditions improve, as they can wait for asset bubbles to deflate before making strategic investments [12][10]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market has undergone significant adjustments since 2022, with average national housing prices dropping approximately 30%, and declines in some third and fourth-tier cities exceeding 50% [1] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The initial price corrections began in second and third-tier cities, with first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen joining the trend in 2023 [1] - Experts predict that by 2030, housing prices could increase to four to five times their current levels, driven by factors such as excessive money supply, favorable government policies, and anticipated economic growth [1] Group 2: Counterarguments to Price Predictions - The likelihood of housing prices quadrupling or quintupling in the next five years is considered extremely low due to the ongoing long-term downward trend in prices [3] - Achieving a fivefold increase in housing prices by 2030 would require annual doubling, which is deemed nearly impossible [3] - Economic growth and money supply do not guarantee rising housing prices, as the market is currently experiencing significant bubbles and investment risks [3] Group 3: Factors Supporting Price Stabilization - Residents' income levels are insufficient to support high housing prices, with many facing reduced incomes and cautious future income expectations [4] - There is an oversupply of housing in the market, with approximately 6 billion existing homes, enough to accommodate 30 billion people, leading to a long-term supply-demand imbalance [4] - The construction of affordable housing is accelerating, which will further alleviate housing supply pressures and help regulate the market [5] Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - Considering macroeconomic conditions, purchasing power, and housing supply, the potential for significant price increases in the next five years is very low, with a likelihood of continued adjustments towards rationality [6]

Economic Trends in China - In 2025, China is undergoing significant economic changes, characterized by five major trends: declining deposit rates, falling but still high housing prices, a growing flexible employment sector, a rise in the trend of not marrying or having children, and the diminishing allure of stable jobs [1] Banking and Savings - Despite continuous reductions in deposit rates since 2024, with rates reaching historical lows, the enthusiasm for savings among the public remains strong. This is attributed to losses in stock markets and other investment channels, leading people to prefer bank deposits for capital preservation [3] Real Estate Market - Since 2022, the real estate market has seen an average price decline of over 30% in some regions by 2025. However, owning a home remains out of reach for many due to persistent high prices and economic pressures such as declining incomes and unemployment. In cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, the price-to-income ratio exceeds 40, indicating significant purchasing pressure [6] Employment Trends - The flexible employment sector has expanded significantly due to the impact of the pandemic, with 240 million individuals now engaged in flexible jobs such as delivery workers and freelancers. This trend reflects a shift in the job market towards more adaptable employment options [8] Social Trends - The rates of marriage and childbirth in China have been declining, primarily due to high costs associated with weddings and child-rearing. The financial burden of housing and the overall cost of living are major deterrents for young people considering marriage and family [9] Fiscal Challenges - The stability of traditional job security is eroding, particularly in local governments facing reduced fiscal revenues due to a sluggish real estate market. Experts suggest the introduction of property taxes to create new revenue streams for local governments [11] Monetary Policy and Economic Conditions - By 2025, China's broad money supply (M2) has surpassed 304.8 trillion yuan, more than double the GDP, indicating severe monetary overexpansion. Despite this, there is a widespread perception of a cash shortage among citizens, businesses, and governments, leading to a deflationary economic cycle. The core issue lies in the lack of confidence in the market, preventing the effective circulation of money into the real economy [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the decline in China's liquor production is often misinterpreted, suggesting that while production has decreased from its peak in 2016, it has actually increased by 33.02% compared to 20 years ago, indicating that the industry is not necessarily in decline but rather adjusting to market realities [2][4]. Production Trends - In 2016, China's liquor production peaked at 1,358 million tons, but by 2024, it is projected to drop to 414.5 million tons, a decline of approximately 69.48% [2]. - When comparing the production in 2024 (414.5 million tons) to 20 years prior in 2004 (311.6 million tons), it shows a growth of 33.02%, contradicting the narrative of a declining industry [2][3]. Demand and Consumption - The article highlights that the demand for liquor is limited by human consumption capacity, unlike other beverages that can see increased consumption with lifestyle changes [3]. - The population growth from 1.299 billion in 2004 to 1.408 billion in 2024 (an increase of about 8.4%) indicates that per capita liquor consumption has not significantly decreased [2]. Market Dynamics - The rapid increase in liquor production from 2004 to 2016 was driven by a favorable economic environment post-WTO accession, leading to a proliferation of local liquor brands [4]. - The oversupply and intense competition in the market have led to a decline in production since 2016, with many mid to low-end brands losing market share [4]. Revenue Growth - Despite the decline in production, the total sales revenue of the liquor industry has surged from 61.23 billion in 2004 to 796.384 billion in 2024, a twelvefold increase [4][5]. - The increase in revenue is attributed to rising prices rather than increased consumption, with the sales revenue continuing to grow even as production declines [5]. Monetary Influence - The growth in liquor sales revenue aligns closely with the increase in the money supply (M2), which rose from 25.32 trillion in 2004 to 313.53 trillion in 2024, an increase of 11.38 times [5]. - The article posits that the driving force behind the liquor industry's growth is not public spending or real estate demand, but rather the effects of monetary expansion [5].