春节过完了，和大家聊下大家最关心的房地产。我们先以北京为例，来对比春节七天的实时成交量。 可以看到，去年底由于打击恶意唱空舆论，因此唱多声音为主流，导致节前楼市预期急升（跌涨比快速下行），于是春节期间抢跑现象明显，实时成交相 比去年是呈现出几倍的增长。那么历史上有没有可以类比的时期呢？ 有的。 3，12，17，25，23，29 作为对比，2025年初一到初六的实时成交为： 2，2，2，4，7，8 2026年初一到初六的绿中介实时成交分别为： 就是2023年春节。 当时也是疫情刚结束，同样是舆论吹风疫情结束，房地产重回支柱产业等，导致春节期间房价上涨预期急升，比如，2023年初四到初六的实时成交为： 19，26，38； 对比今年初四到初六的25，23，29，基本处于同一水平线上，或者说2023年甚至略高。 但大家知道，2023年在火爆的小阳春之后，楼市却开启了下行趋势。所以，预期不能单独决定房价，而是要和基本面来共同决定房价。 所以，本期将从货币层面，来聊一下楼市基本面。 大家知道京沪房价基本回到了2016年，那么货币层面呢？ 我们以2016年二季度末为例，M2是149万亿，而截止2025年12月底，M2为34 ...

在很多人看来，国内经济将会长期处于通胀的状态之中。理由是货币超发严重。数据显示：2026年1月末，广义货币（M2）余额为347.19万亿元，同比增长 9.0%。M2的规模是GDP的2倍。但事实上，国内物价总体保持"平稳"状态。特别是像房子、车子、猪肉、小家电等商品一直都处于下降的趋势之中。事实 上，现在国内经济仍处于通缩的周期。 而导致货币超发严重，物价总体保持"平稳"，甚至下跌状态的原因有两个：一个是，由于消费和投资信心不足，大量超发货币在金融体系内空转，并没有流 向商品市场。另一个是，多数老百姓收入增长放缓或下降，消费能力被严重削弱。而厂商为了去库存，回笼资金，就只能采取降价促销的方式了。 在通缩的环境下，手里没多少资金的家庭，一旦遇到失业、疾病等突发事件，就会棘手无策，听天由命了。而如果手里有大量现金的人，即使遇到失业、疾 病等突发事件，也可以从容应对，抚平人生的波动。同时，如果你是一个生意人，手里有大量现金就可以支付房租、员工工资、低价购进原材料等，这样就 能让你的企业安然度过这个通缩周期，迎来新一轮经济快速增工时期。 第三，能够避开各种投资风险 在通缩的环境之下，各种投资理财的风险在逐步上升。比如， ...

在很多人看来，国内贬值最快的是钞票。主要原因是，我国货币超发严重，2025年，中国广义货币（M2）的总规模为340.29万亿元。而这一年GDP规模是 140.19万亿元。显然，M2总规模是GDP的2.4倍。但令人感到奇怪的是，钞票的购买力并没有出现大幅贬值的情况。去年全国居民消费价格与2024年持平。 不仅如此，像猪肉、小家电、房租、电子产品等价格都在下跌。 在进入到2026年之后，国内汽车市场出现了明显的调整。像国产新能源汽车，降价幅度在2-3万元。而国内高档汽车的价格下降幅度在8-9万元。不仅如此， 二手汽车市场的降价幅度也非常惊人。有网友去年初购买的23万的新能源汽车，如今在二手汽车市场只值15-16万。导致新车和二手车市场出现快速贬值的 原因就是，很多中产家庭收入增长放缓或下跌。于是，就搁置了原来换新车的计划。 第一，房子 从2022年开始，国内各地房价进入到下降的趋势之中。现在全国平均房价跌幅超过30%，像环京三四线城市的房价跌幅超过60%。而在进入到2026年之后， 国内房子价格下跌的趋势并没有改变。与过去不同的是，之前跌幅较大的二三线城市房价下跌很可能会放缓，而像上海、深圳等一线城市的房价或将会 ...

货币超发，简单讲，就是货币发行量超过了维持经济正常运行的需要，引发通胀、资产价格泡沫和货币贬值。 随着信用货币诞生，货币超发时代到来，财政赤字货币化、量化宽松、政府债务膨胀、现代货币理论等产生。 全球货币超发是普遍现象。从1980年到2024年，全球广义货币M2占GDP的比重上升了78个点到141%，大多数经济体M2年均增速高于名义GDP增速。 在金本位时代，货币难以超发。 超发货币最终将寻找出口。根据MV=PQ，要么流入实物资产，引发通胀，导致物价水平剧烈上涨；要么流向金融资产，引发资产价格泡沫，比如房地产 或资本市场。 通胀和资产价格泡沫本质上都是货币超发现象。所以，我提出"股市是货币的晴雨表"。 全球货币超发有多严重？可分为三种： 2008年以来美国推出量化宽松和无上限量化宽松，美联储资产负债表膨胀了10多倍，超发货币被金融市场吸收，股市和楼市泡沫严重。美股市值/GDP高 达190%，吸收大量流动性；过去34年间，美国标普500指数上涨46倍，纳斯达克指数上涨102倍。 同时，美元作为全球储备货币，超发的货币也稀释了其他国家的财富，相当于征收铸币税，全球买单。美债和美元一旦崩盘，后果不堪设想，相当于引爆 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid devaluation of cash in China is attributed to severe monetary overexpansion by the central bank, with M2 expected to reach 340.29 trillion yuan by 2025, growing at 8.5%, while GDP is only 140 trillion yuan, indicating a potential deflationary cycle in the economy [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Context - The significant monetary overexpansion has not led to substantial price increases due to insufficient investment and consumer confidence, resulting in excess currency circulating within the financial system rather than reaching the goods market [3]. - The sluggish growth in residents' income has led to a shrinking demand in the consumer market, prompting manufacturers to adopt price-cutting strategies to reduce inventory, causing many product prices to decline [3]. Group 2: Asset Devaluation - Real estate prices have been in a downward trend since 2022, with an average national decline exceeding 30%, and some areas experiencing drops over 60%. The expectation is that housing prices will continue to depreciate in the coming years due to existing market bubbles and stagnant income growth [5][6]. - The depreciation rate of electronic products is alarming, with significant price drops observed within a year due to rapid technological advancements and manufacturers' need to clear old stock [7][8]. - The automotive market is witnessing unexpected depreciation, particularly in the electric vehicle segment, where prices have dropped significantly due to oversupply and intense competition among new models [9][11]. - Luxury goods are also entering a rapid devaluation phase, with significant price drops observed as consumer purchasing power declines and counterfeit products become more prevalent, leading to a collapse in brand value [12][14].

文：任泽平团队 摘要 目录 本报告通过复盘 1980-2024 年全球货币数据与资产回报，揭示货币超发对资产的影响，给出抵 御通胀的财富指南。 全球货币超发是普遍现象。 从 1980 年到 2024 年，全球广义货币占 GDP 的比重上升了 78 个 点到 141% ，多数经济体广义货币年均增速高于其名义 GDP 增速。 货币超发分三种类型： 一是以巴西、阿根廷、土耳其为代表的 通胀失控型 ，财政赤字货币化与 产业空心化，超发货币直接冲击商品市场，引发恶性通胀与本币信用崩塌；二是以美英为代表的 资 产价格膨胀型 ，超发货币被发达的资本市场吸纳，表现为资产价格显著膨胀、消费通胀却保持温 和；三是以中国、日本及部分东亚经济体为代表的 结构性沉淀型 ，在间接融资主导的体系下，大量 资金以存款和债务形式沉淀于银行体系或投向基建、地产等领域。 中国货币流向的转变：从地产老基建到资本市场新质生产力。 中国货币发行控制属于比较好 的， 表现为 M2/GDP 持续抬升与温和通胀。过去二十年，中国依靠房地产、基建的信用循环，货币 沉淀为实体资产、而非流向消费端。随着地产长周期见顶，传统蓄水池功能失效。货币流向发生根 本性转折， ...

（来源：吴说） Bitwise 首席投资官 Matt Hougan 在采访中表示，在未来 20 年内，比特币价格有望达到约 650 万美元。 他指出，当前加密市场正处于熊市底部后期阶段，短期内比特币或在 7.5 万至 10 万美元区间震荡，但 并不改变其长期看涨判断。他认为，比特币在 2025 年避免更大跌幅，主要得益于企业与 ETF 的持续买 入；同时，黄金上涨反映了市场对法币贬值与资产没收风险的担忧，这一趋势长期将利好比特币。 他透露，部分央行已开始就比特币进行初步研究，但真正配置仍需 10–20 年。其长期价格预测基于全球 债务扩张、货币超发与比特币数字黄金属性，而非短期采用率变化，并认为 2026 年整体基本面依然向 好。（CoinDesk） ...

安如泰山 信守承诺 黄金:地缘风险频现,金价重心抬升 点石成金 2026年以来，围绕委内瑞拉、伊朗以及格陵兰岛的地缘事件纷至沓来，特朗普对于全球秩序的挑战加剧政 治经济前景不确定性,国际金价涨幅接近15%。 过去一周地缘紧张迅速传导至金融市场，VIX波动率指数飙升至12月以来最高水平。今日特朗普称已通过一 项北约协议,将允许美国对格陵兰岛实现全面准入,如果欧洲抛售美国资产,将面临重大报复,并再次重申将 对与伊朗有贸易往来的国家加征关税。此外有关人士称特朗普政府正寻求年底前推动古巴政权更迭。 国投期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构,已具备期货投资咨询业务资 格。 伴随着国际常规秩序的撕裂，美元信用体系也受到冲击。黄金天然具备充当货币的优良特点，以自然为背 书成为对冲货币信用工具,与美元信用此消彼长。黄金此轮牛市核心逻辑是货币超发,债务膨胀，美元作为全 球法定货币核心地位动摇，黄金价值重估。美债规模已接近39万亿美元，国际货币基金组织预测2030年美国债 务规模超过50万亿美元，占GDP比重将从120%升至140%。近期特朗普在社交平台宣布决定将2027年美国军事预算 从原计划的1万亿美元大幅提升至 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing importance of gold as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, highlighting its dual attributes of value preservation and risk aversion, especially in the context of ongoing financial, trade, and technological conflicts among major nations [1][11]. Group 1: Historical Context of Gold Holdings - Global central banks held 12.25 billion ounces of gold in 1964, which decreased to 11.66 billion ounces by 2024, despite significant monetary expansion over the same period [3]. - The price of gold has increased dramatically from $35 per ounce in 1964 to approximately $2,639 per ounce by the end of 2024, representing a nearly 75-fold increase [3]. - The broad money supply (M2) grew from $0.98 trillion in 1964 to $156.67 trillion in 2024, a growth of 159 times, indicating a much faster expansion compared to gold prices [3]. Group 2: Current Gold Reserves and Market Value - By the end of 2024, the market value of central bank gold reserves exceeded $3 trillion, yet this value remains low relative to the total global broad money supply [5]. - The proportion of gold reserves in relation to global broad money has only increased from 4.3% in 1964 to 1.9% in 2024, indicating a significant decline over the decades [5][8]. - The share of foreign exchange reserves in total central bank reserves rose from 31% in 1960 to 90% during 2006-2008, before declining to 77% by 2024, reflecting a shift away from gold [8]. Group 3: Implications for Future Gold Holdings - Since 2022, central banks have been increasing their gold reserves due to concerns over U.S. debt and the weakening dollar, which has been a significant factor driving up gold prices [11]. - The global gold stock has increased by approximately 1.5 times over the past 60 years, yet central banks currently hold only about 17.5% of the total gold stock, suggesting a potential for increased gold accumulation [11]. - China's gold holdings are relatively low, projected to be around 0.74 billion ounces by the end of 2025, which is only 6.3% of global central bank holdings [11]. Group 4: Economic and Geopolitical Considerations - The article notes that the post-World War II era has seen a significant accumulation of debt, with few countries successfully implementing reforms, leading to a reliance on monetary expansion, which supports the rising prices of non-yielding assets like gold [14]. - Despite the decoupling of the dollar from gold post-Bretton Woods, the dollar's international status remains strong, influenced by the U.S. economic position [14]. - The article suggests that to enhance the international status of the renminbi and optimize central bank reserves, China should consider reducing its holdings in U.S. and Japanese government bonds while increasing its gold reserves [14].

Group 1 - The core phenomenon in China's economy is the coexistence of severe monetary overproduction and stable consumer prices, indicating a deflationary cycle [1][3] - As of November 2025, the broad money supply (M2) reached 336.99 trillion yuan, growing by 8% year-on-year, and is twice the GDP size [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for 2025 remained flat compared to the previous year, highlighting the lack of inflation despite the monetary expansion [1] Group 2 - The deflationary cycle is attributed to three main factors: excessive monetary supply circulating within the financial system without reaching the goods market, declining consumer demand due to stagnant or falling incomes, and intense competition leading to price reductions [3][5] - In a deflationary environment, the recommendation is to prioritize cash and avoid high-risk investments such as stocks, real estate, funds, and various financial products, as the risk of asset bubbles increases [5][6] Group 3 - Young individuals are advised against frequently changing jobs due to the shrinking job market and potential difficulties in finding new employment during the deflationary period [6][8] - Entrepreneurs are cautioned against blindly investing in new ventures, as the likelihood of success is low due to weak consumer demand, intense competition, rising operational costs, and the impact of e-commerce on traditional businesses [9][11] Group 4 - Individuals are discouraged from increasing debt levels, especially in a deflationary context where income may decrease or job loss may occur, making it crucial to manage and reduce existing debt [12][13] - Practical strategies for navigating the deflationary environment include reducing unnecessary spending, enhancing professional skills, avoiding reckless investments, and minimizing debt burdens [13]